【NaNa说美股】20260415涨得我害怕~~

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是4月15号

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周三

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美股连续数日大涨后呢

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依然拒绝休整

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标普500指数和纳指今天双双创下历史新高

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只有老大哥豆子类的扶墙喘气

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资金正像疯了一样从周期股撤离

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挤破头的往科技股里面钻

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投资者对美伊和平协议的前景更为乐观

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若双方已经接近

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达成一项结束冲突的框架性协议

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原则上同意延长停火

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以争取更多的外交时间

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随后彭博社也跟进说

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要再续两周

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川普更是直接宣布战争已经结束

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最终结果很快出来

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结果后面呢

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表示没同意

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没证实

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别瞎说

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这场戏演到现在就像俩人街头打架

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双方都已经打不动了

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但是嘴上一定要骂骂咧咧的

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周围一群劝架的在那喊上鸟

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上鸟都不容易啊

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然后呢两人还要一边走一边回头放狠话

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时不时的还得再冲上前走两步

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旁边的人赶紧拉架

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五角大楼虽然继续向中东增派了数千兵力

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美军在波斯湾

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摆出了三个航母战斗群的封锁架势

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但是明眼人都看得出来

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5万美军顶多过去拆房子

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真要是打全面战争

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没个20万的兵力打不下来

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打到现在呢

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川普其实也看明白了

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伊朗革命卫队的基本盘还是很大

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推翻不太可能

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地面战风险太大

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彻底解决伊朗问题啊

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只能够留给后人

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现在极限施压

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不过是为了在第二轮谈判桌上多要两块筹码

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只要看清双方都不想真动手的底牌

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就能理解为什么现在市场彻底无视了地缘风险

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到最后嗯

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估计双方还是会达成和平协议的哈

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川普可以宣布自己赢了

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以色列呢也缓解了生存焦虑

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革命卫队可以宣称自己赶跑了侵略者

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继续掌握统治权力

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比双赢还好

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那就是双赢

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市场现在基本已经完全跌定价了

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美伊的第二轮谈判将会达成和平协议

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如果届时这个预期落空

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那油价就会弹簧松开

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暴力再冲上去

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美债收益率呢近日持续回落

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反映出市场博弈通胀溢价的消退

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mix今天早盘10:30结算后

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虽然小幅回升了一些哈

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当天仍然下跌

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市场对风险的钝化已经到了极致

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大家不再买入铺

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甚至在结算后继续卖出波动率

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由于VX持续低迷

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都是三不需要卖出标普500期货来对冲

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反而因为标普500指数越过了7000点

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触发了更高位的伽马挤压

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但是这个压力并没有说就消失了

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而是被羁押到了这个周五的期权结算日

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那只能连续11个交易日垂直进攻

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ISI超过70

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是超买超过80

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极度超卖接近90

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那就是情绪失控了呀

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市场目前完全没有人在卖哈

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全部都是机器人和踏空资金在不计成本的扫货

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日线走势出现了三个跳空缺口

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第一个缺口巨大

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第二个缺口呢昨天才刚形成

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相对小一些

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今天又出现

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第三个缺口很小

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不注意看都不一定能发现

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从技术面来说

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连续三个跳空缺口对多头的动能消耗过大

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橡皮筋已经拉到了断裂的边缘

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指数收盘还突破了前面的双重顶部

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和2万4000点超级整数大关

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虽然日K距离5日均线的偏离度很大

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但是几条短期均线呢都呈现完美的向上发散状

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这意味着从中长线来看

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上升趋势不仅没有破坏

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反而由于这一次暴利反弹

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把之前的下跌空间给彻底修复了

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但是这种脱轨飞行啊

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通常意味着

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短期内会有一次快速的剧烈的回踩抽分

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按照历史经验呢

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在新高附近也容易出现这种洗盘的动作

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当市场进入了癫狂期

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幽默感就会以最离谱的方式呈现

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比如像贝尔这支小票

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今天单日暴涨了582%

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这家原本生意惨淡

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卖羊毛血卖到快退市的公司

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仅仅因为今天宣布改行

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要搞显卡租赁

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并且在名字里面加了AI

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而股价直接就表演了原地上天

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这种AI贴牌式的群魔乱舞哈

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通常是狂欢宴会即将收场

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就连保洁阿姨都忍不住想买粮食的标准信号

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标普500指数呢从6300.1路狂飙

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冲上了7000点哈

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把这个7000点的天花板直接给掀翻了

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最后一段往往是涨的最快最狠的

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这是一场有全方位的投降式买入引发的熔涨

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对冲基金在3月底全面做空压住

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导致他们在本轮反弹中经历了惨烈的踩踏

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过去一周

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对冲基金呢被迫以近两年最快的速度

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平掉空头头寸

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直接把多头进场口给推到了历史前

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15%的极端水平哈

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很多基金经理嘴上虽然还在犹豫

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手里面已经满仓做多了

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但是真正把市场拖住

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没有让它在3月份直接塌掉的

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而不是这些被动转动的对冲基金

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而是企业回购

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今年一季度的企业回购授权规模呢

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创下了历史同期新高

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在指数下跌的时候

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提供了最强大的价格地板

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但是随着4月中旬财报季的临近

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绝大多数美国上市公司呢

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已经开始进入了回购静默期

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这意味着在接下来的3~4周

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那个最有钱的接盘侠暂时下班了

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与此同时

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这一轮融展最核心的机械动力CCTA量化基金哈

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正处于10年来规模最大的买入狂潮当中

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由于VIX波动率崩溃和指数关键技术位的收复

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这些量化模型已经从空头

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直接切换到了无脑扫货模式

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高盛预测的450亿美元的这个买盘呢

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在这几天的暴涨中被大量提前消耗了

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预计到下个周一

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4月20号

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CCTA摆盘就会彻底枯竭

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散户们也在此时完成了

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从观望到报复性入场的华丽转身

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末日看涨期权买到飞起

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这种操作翻译一下

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就是不想错过行情

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又怕高位被套

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于是呢就用一点小钱拉满杠杆赌

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日内赢了去会所

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输了就当打车费了

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绝不留仓过夜被套

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这种散户驱动的伽马效应与做市商的机械对冲

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产生了剧烈的共振

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伽马效应一叠加就变成了你越追啊

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市场越涨

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市场越涨

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那你更想追的正反馈循环

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就其实也是一个典型的短期泡沫结构哈

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本周五的月度期权到期日

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是一个关键的时间节点

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目前做市商处于极端的干嘛

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仓位重

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就像紧绷的弹弓一样维持着低波动

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但是周五结算之后

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这一股结构性保护呢将会消失

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市场的波动率会瞬间回归哈

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指数可能会出现无征兆的剧烈摆动

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当下周初CCTA买盘枯竭

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企业回购停摆之后啊

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这个潮水就开始退去

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如果没有后续买家跟进的话

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市场可能从真空上涨转入高位派发

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这不是单边看空啊

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而是这个市场短线呢嗯偏向要先回调

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再去寻找支撑嗯

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当下如果继续追多呃

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或者说这个时候做空

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其实都相当于在火山口蹦迪

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其他个股与板块方面

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半导体活跃

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博通股价又虚涨了4%

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公司宣布与梅塔共同生产定制AI芯片

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这项协议

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将双方的合作期限延长到了2029年

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其中包括超过一级瓦的初始计算能力

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承诺阿斯麦股价今年季后下跌

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公司第一季度业绩全线超预期

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全年营收指引也善休

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并且宣布扩大极紫外光刻机产能

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以应对2027年的强劲需求

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但是呢嗯公司给出的Q2指引偏弱

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引发了市场的短期分歧

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Q2销售额中指大约87亿欧元

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低于市场预期的90.7亿欧元

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毛利率也环比下滑

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不过呢华尔接啊

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分析师们认为哈全球需求动能依然强劲

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那么Q2指引就是瑕不掩瑜

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00:09:05,519 --> 00:09:07,558
依然维持看多观点

216
00:09:07,558 --> 00:09:09,659
股价日内也收窄了跌幅

217
00:09:09,659 --> 00:09:11,860
社交媒体公司SNP股价大涨

218
00:09:11,860 --> 00:09:15,820
公司宣布计划裁减最多16%的全球员工

219
00:09:15,820 --> 00:09:19,259
同时关闭至少300个未招聘职位

220
00:09:19,259 --> 00:09:22,399
以提升运营效率和盈利性增长

221
00:09:22,399 --> 00:09:26,620
并称裁员决定源于人工智能带来的效率提升

222
00:09:26,620 --> 00:09:31,059
公司计划将资源重新配置到最高优先级别唉

223
00:09:31,059 --> 00:09:35,440
就是把裁员这个黑锅甩到人工智能头上嗯

224
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:39,240
目前snap呢正面临来自激进投资者的压力

225
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,078
要求公司改善长期盈利能力不足的问题

226
00:09:43,078 --> 00:09:45,359
COVIVO最近是好消息不断呀

227
00:09:45,359 --> 00:09:47,678
股价逼近上方缺口压力

228
00:09:47,678 --> 00:09:48,999
今天看到消息说话

229
00:09:48,999 --> 00:09:54,389
节量化巨头兼STRATE投资10亿美元入股COVIA

230
00:09:54,389 --> 00:09:57,429
并且追加了60亿美元的技术采购订单

231
00:09:57,429 --> 00:10:01,159
目的是为了锁定英伟达下一代rub芯片

232
00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:03,240
算力以及AI软件服务

233
00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,840
这个是呃投资copy这家公司哈

234
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,299
而不是单纯的炒股票

235
00:10:07,299 --> 00:10:08,938
所以是个好消息嗯

236
00:10:08,938 --> 00:10:11,019
我今天早上刚刚看到的时候

237
00:10:11,019 --> 00:10:14,830
还以为是真脆策盯上了KY这只股票吓了我一跳

238
00:10:14,830 --> 00:10:17,690
摩根三类股价呢季后大涨

239
00:10:17,690 --> 00:10:20,450
该行Q1营收同比增长16%

240
00:10:20,450 --> 00:10:22,490
净利润55.7亿美元

241
00:10:22,490 --> 00:10:23,950
同比增长29%

242
00:10:23,950 --> 00:10:25,480
算算创新高

243
00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:28,080
股票交易收入破记录嗯

244
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,899
财富管理的吸金1184亿美元

245
00:10:31,899 --> 00:10:33,240
美银财报也不错

246
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,320
Q1营收同比增长7%

247
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,539
每股收益同比增长25%

248
00:10:37,539 --> 00:10:39,078
都超出市场预期

249
00:10:39,078 --> 00:10:41,879
全球市场波动提振了交易活动

250
00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:45,779
并购活动的反弹呢也推高了投资银行费用

251
00:10:45,779 --> 00:10:48,799
信贷损失准备金为是3亿美元

252
00:10:48,799 --> 00:10:53,000
较2021年第一季度的15亿美元有所减少

253
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,789
与2025年第四季度相比则基本持平

254
00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:58,129
呃这次财报季

255
00:10:58,129 --> 00:11:01,950
几家大银行都交出了让投资者满意的成绩单哈

256
00:11:01,950 --> 00:11:05,589
而且呢都披露他们在私募信贷领域的敞口

257
00:11:05,589 --> 00:11:10,029
试图平息人们对银行业在私募信贷产口担忧

258
00:11:10,029 --> 00:11:11,990
银行业的财报起了一个好头

259
00:11:11,990 --> 00:11:14,309
让投资者对接下来的科技股财报呢

260
00:11:14,309 --> 00:11:15,690
也充满了信心

261
00:11:15,690 --> 00:11:18,629
这其实也是支撑美股市场持续走高

262
00:11:18,629 --> 00:11:22,480
资金跑步进场抢筹的一个主要因素之一哈

263
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,000
所以嗯美股这一波隔空行情

264
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,809
虽然有短线回调的风险

265
00:11:28,809 --> 00:11:32,120
但是中长期趋势呢已经重新走牛了

266
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,679
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

267
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,379
那我们明天见拜拜

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