【Financial Education】Tom Lee:史上最强增长红利，AMD、ELF与SoFi投资机会

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AMD股票今日创下历史新高收盘

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祝贺所有AMD股东

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关于我们即将讨论的MD有很多重要内容

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特别是关于近期有人抛售B类股的情况

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我们将讨论这个话题

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显然股价经历了疯狂上涨

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从200美元涨到500美元

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我们将讨论现在是否该卖出

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AMD从我的视角和观点来看

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在完成这些内容后

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如果你持有Este Lauterstock或ELF股票

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我有一些非常好的消息要告诉大家

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在今天的视频中我们将讨论这一点

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接下来我们将谈论Sofi股票

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我也有好消息给Sofi股东及当前情况

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在完成所有内容后

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接下来我们将回应这段视频

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我们可能见证有生以来最大的股市涨幅

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汤姆·李在2026年说

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这是一个重大声明

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我期待回应这个观点

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然后是尼

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他在谈论市场可能非理性

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但仍需更长远的发展

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我期待回应这段片段

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然后我要回应这只Meta股票

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很多人认为这简直不敢相信

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这似乎好得不像真实

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没错

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股价被严重打压

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市盈率极低

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增长速度惊人

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营收增长率超过30%

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这里到底发生了什么

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我们将在视频中花时间讨论Meta股票

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如果这是绝佳机会

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好的

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感谢大家一如既往的支持

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非常感谢你们的到来

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我只需要你们做一件事

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如果你还没做的话

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请给我点个赞

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感谢你们的支持

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感谢订阅频道

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以及所有美好事物

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准备好了

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女士们先生们

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再谈AMD今日再创历史新高收盘

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521美元没错

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从200到500的涨幅令人难以置信

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对

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有几个要点需要记住

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在我们讨论卖出股票之前

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这些类型的事情

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有几个要点需要记住

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首先这不是一次普通的上涨

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就像从未发生过这种情况

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没错

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看看袋鼠的走势

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像美光科技这样的情况似乎并不遥远

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这只股票曾涨到一百美元

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事实上

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过去一年它曾达到一百美元

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现在你知道它已超过一千美元对吧

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显然英伟达的走势完全不同

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不到一年涨幅超三千%

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没错英伟达经历了多次上涨

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股价翻倍甚至三倍

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迅速上涨对吧所以要理解AMD这次涨幅巨大

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这是一次大幅上涨

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你知道的

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我敢肯定现在观看视频的你们

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已经赚了几万美元

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几十万甚至上百万美元

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恭喜

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但不要认为这是什么特殊走势

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就像从未发生过这种情况

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其实这还算比较温和

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与其他股票相比

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有些股票涨幅超过两千%

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没错

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比如Palantir的走势

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即使与英伟达的走势相比

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你知道Meta曾是88美元

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2022年

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而在去年峰值时

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Meta股价接近八百美元

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这对AMD来说是一次巨大涨幅

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只是这个

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并非从未发生过

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这太疯狂了

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这是一次史诗级的上涨

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非常棒

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但我不觉得是传奇级

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美光科技的走势从百元到千元确实堪称传奇

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没错

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这正是当前的传奇走势

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关于卖出的问题

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像这位个人投资者

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嗯

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他们清仓了头寸

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援引恶化情况

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安全边际

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在急涨后风险回报率仍不理想

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推动2028P至三七倍差距

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听着兄弟

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我们毫无头绪

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AMD在哪里

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2020P即将上涨

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我们知道它很可能比这位人士预期的大幅改善

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我个人认为

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以及任何其他分析师

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我大胆预测会更好

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鉴于这种疯狂的CPU需求

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接下来两到三年即将发生

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AMD未来两到三年的GPU需求

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我认为每个人的预测

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包括Lisa Sue和AMD的预测都严重低估了未来几年

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没错这是需要记住的

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甚至不要考虑

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哦

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2028三

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七倍差距

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市盈率不对

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很可能远超你的预期

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收益被分配给英伟达

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提供更清晰的成长轨迹和更低的前瞻市盈率

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所以是的

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这很合理

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听啊英伟达能更清晰展现增长前景

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但问题在于股票价格

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为什么AMD股价将持续显著跑赢

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让我解释

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这家AMD

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股价正处于绝佳时机

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因为我们知道情况将大幅改善

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但没人知道改善程度

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我们只知道比预期好得多

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鉴于CPU和GPU需求

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AMD未来几年的需求

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没错这很令人兴奋

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因此股价必须上涨

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因为实际改善远超预期

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英伟达没有这种图景

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英伟达有清晰图景

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英伟达

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我们大致知道今年的增长率

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大致预估明年增长率

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没错没有惊喜

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将在视频中呈现

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它只是刚刚突破了几个数据

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哇

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这就是季度接季度的持续增长

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直到最终这个AI周期结束

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然后它会转向另一个方向对吧

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但这就是现在的英伟达

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从股价来看英伟达非常令人兴奋

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就像当股价出现

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你知道十倍十五倍的涨幅

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在短短的你知道的

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两三年间

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那段股价非常激动人心

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因为我们知道数据会变得更好

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只是不知道会好多少

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大家其实都低估了

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它究竟会变得多好

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比如

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大多数人没看到英伟达市值突破五万亿美元

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对吧而AMD现在

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我们

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你知道的

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正接近接近一万亿市值左右

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现在问题是是否迈向万亿级别

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我们能否达到英伟达的水平

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我们知道比现在好得多

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从股价角度看非常令人兴奋

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在这样的周期中买入股票很危险

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因为通常估值过高

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但这也是激动人心的时期

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我说

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Palantir是个好例子

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Palantir

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你知道2022年股价六美元

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随后几年涨到六十美元

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十倍增长

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简直难以置信当你看Palantir时

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哦

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这股票简直疯狂

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你知道的

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估值过高

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等等

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你知道的

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股价仍有巨大上涨空间

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我们不知道还有多少上涨空间

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但知道会大幅上涨

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对并且确实大幅上涨了

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确实大幅上涨了

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这就是AMD的情况

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这也是股价如此

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嗯

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我觉得现在很令人兴奋

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并且在未来至少一年内仍将保持非常令人兴奋的股票

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最终不会在amd身上

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将会

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你知道的

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关于收入会有更清晰的图景

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关于盈利方面

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但可能

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需要九到十八个月时间

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所以请记住这一点

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没错这就是我跟你们说的

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我说过

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amd存在潜力

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股票今年或明年可能涨到一千美元以上

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它已经获得了大量涨幅

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它只是不断突破

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因为这就是股票的运作方式

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它们定价未来

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没错

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我认为公司并不差

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或者情况没有恶化

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但这里的安全边际比之前大幅恶化

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在相对层面更是严重得多

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我的印象是市场现在发现了amd的潜力

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而不是进行计算

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如果公司将继续带来惊喜

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甚至从英伟达夺取市场份额

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没错

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嗯现在

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我嗯

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反对amd的什么

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嗯

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万亿市值

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或略低于万亿的视频市场

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你知道的

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五万亿市值

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我不认为任何东西已被定价

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关于实际夺取英伟达市场份额

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现在

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在此时此刻

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00:08:33,139 --> 00:08:35,299
我不认为这是情况

242
00:08:35,299 --> 00:08:37,009
但无论如何

243
00:08:37,009 --> 00:08:40,960
稍等片刻现在

244
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:42,759
我还要反驳这一点

245
00:08:42,759 --> 00:08:44,860
我认为这非常重要

246
00:08:44,860 --> 00:08:50,009
是关于风险回报现在更差的观点

247
00:08:50,009 --> 00:08:55,429
没错特别是市场现在发现了amd的潜力

248
00:08:55,429 --> 00:08:55,830
嗯

249
00:08:55,830 --> 00:09:00,158
这里的安全边际比之前大幅恶化请听好

250
00:09:01,318 --> 00:09:02,839
这非常值得商榷

251
00:09:02,839 --> 00:09:04,470
这就是协议内容

252
00:09:04,470 --> 00:09:10,629
如果你看看amd，假设一年前的amd

253
00:09:10,629 --> 00:09:11,149
好的

254
00:09:11,149 --> 00:09:12,129
例如

255
00:09:12,129 --> 00:09:15,070
amd的风险更大

256
00:09:15,070 --> 00:09:18,009
因为很多像我们自己

257
00:09:18,009 --> 00:09:19,179
也许你们中的一些人

258
00:09:19,179 --> 00:09:22,440
我们看到了gpu的巨大潜力

259
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:23,279
嗯

260
00:09:23,279 --> 00:09:25,360
特别是450系列

261
00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,250
还有未来的系列型号

262
00:09:28,250 --> 00:09:31,549
但一年前我们并不清楚

263
00:09:31,549 --> 00:09:35,389
关于过去六到九个月真正落实的这些交易

264
00:09:35,389 --> 00:09:37,330
来自所有大公司

265
00:09:37,330 --> 00:09:37,690
现在

266
00:09:37,690 --> 00:09:38,470
这很清楚了

267
00:09:38,470 --> 00:09:42,629
现在我们清楚amd的gpu确实可靠

268
00:09:42,629 --> 00:09:44,740
它们将销售火爆

269
00:09:44,740 --> 00:09:47,980
此外当时我们并不清楚

270
00:09:47,980 --> 00:09:51,279
cpu需求即将爆发的程度

271
00:09:51,279 --> 00:09:55,470
我们认为可能比预期更好

272
00:09:55,470 --> 00:10:00,210
但现在我们谈到的是1:1的gpu与cpu比例

273
00:10:00,210 --> 00:10:02,578
过去是1:4或1:8

274
00:10:02,578 --> 00:10:05,019
这对amd来说是巨大变革

275
00:10:05,019 --> 00:10:07,078
以及他们能卖出的价格

276
00:10:07,078 --> 00:10:07,818
他们将能够进入市场

277
00:10:07,818 --> 00:10:09,979
利润率现在将大幅提升

278
00:10:09,979 --> 00:10:12,950
我们清楚这一点，所以可以说

279
00:10:12,950 --> 00:10:14,669
市值大幅增长当然没错

280
00:10:14,669 --> 00:10:16,870
但我们有了更多确定性

281
00:10:16,870 --> 00:10:18,549
现在我们确定无疑

282
00:10:18,549 --> 00:10:21,669
gpu将在未来几年持续热销

283
00:10:21,669 --> 00:10:23,659
对于amd和cpu业务

284
00:10:23,659 --> 00:10:28,120
我们确定无疑会远超预期

285
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:34,038
Lisa Sue和其他持有该股的关键人物

286
00:10:34,038 --> 00:10:35,399
所以amd

287
00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:36,549
它处于

288
00:10:36,549 --> 00:10:37,269
你知道的

289
00:10:37,269 --> 00:10:40,190
从200到500的涨幅简直疯狂

290
00:10:40,190 --> 00:10:42,470
但我说的是当股价上涨时

291
00:10:42,470 --> 00:10:46,220
你会明白上涨可能持续很久

292
00:10:46,220 --> 00:10:48,019
非常久

293
00:10:49,509 --> 00:10:50,370
你知道的

294
00:10:50,370 --> 00:10:51,169
美光科技

295
00:10:51,169 --> 00:10:53,669
当它从100涨到500

296
00:10:53,669 --> 00:10:54,289
那真是

297
00:10:54,289 --> 00:10:55,250
天啊

298
00:10:55,250 --> 00:10:57,500
不能再涨了

299
00:10:57,500 --> 00:11:00,990
它直接从500涨到1000以上

300
00:11:00,990 --> 00:11:03,070
眨眼间就完成，我记得

301
00:11:03,070 --> 00:11:05,950
难道不是才几周前或几个月前的事吗

302
00:11:05,950 --> 00:11:08,820
美光股价是五百，我当时都惊呆了

303
00:11:08,820 --> 00:11:11,690
然后它从五百直接涨到一千

304
00:11:12,009 --> 00:11:13,809
现在人们都在看美光并说

305
00:11:13,809 --> 00:11:16,049
它会从一千涨到两千

306
00:11:16,049 --> 00:11:20,159
市场变动很快，所以你知道的

307
00:11:20,159 --> 00:11:21,159
只需理解

308
00:11:21,159 --> 00:11:21,500
就像

309
00:11:21,500 --> 00:11:21,919
你知道的

310
00:11:21,919 --> 00:11:23,440
你可以今天以五百卖出

311
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,460
我不是说现在卖出是不好的价格

312
00:11:26,460 --> 00:11:27,470
这可能合理

313
00:11:27,470 --> 00:11:27,830
没错

314
00:11:27,830 --> 00:11:29,570
但需明白存在潜在可能

315
00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:35,710
A和D可能在两三个月内从五百涨到一千

316
00:11:35,710 --> 00:11:36,649
没错

317
00:11:36,649 --> 00:11:40,549
你可能错过六个月内的百分之百涨幅

318
00:11:40,549 --> 00:11:43,529
你看着都快急了

319
00:11:43,529 --> 00:11:43,730
兄弟

320
00:11:43,730 --> 00:11:46,070
我又错过了一个翻倍机会

321
00:11:46,070 --> 00:11:50,289
你知道这些翻倍机会并不容易

322
00:11:50,289 --> 00:11:52,370
在市场中也不是最简单的事

323
00:11:52,370 --> 00:11:54,990
但当你抓住翻倍机会时

324
00:11:54,990 --> 00:11:55,289
兄弟

325
00:11:55,289 --> 00:11:57,529
这些将是长期回报的转折点

326
00:11:57,529 --> 00:11:58,710
这是关键点

327
00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:00,389
这个游戏里必须记住

328
00:12:00,389 --> 00:12:01,710
如果你的长期回报

329
00:12:01,710 --> 00:12:04,029
这些翻倍情况至关重要

330
00:12:04,029 --> 00:12:05,019
那个

331
00:12:05,019 --> 00:12:06,600
你得问自己这个问题

332
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,620
我觉得这是总结AMD话题的好时机

333
00:12:09,620 --> 00:12:12,240
然后转向ELF股票

334
00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,320
接下来讨论SOFI

335
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:14,200
接下来我们将

336
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:14,679
你知道的

337
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,080
在华尔街等反应

338
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,480
但我要给你最后提醒

339
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:24,019
如果必须说AMD股票未来

340
00:12:24,019 --> 00:12:25,639
暂定十八个月

341
00:12:25,639 --> 00:12:26,159
好的

342
00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:27,220
在未来十八个月

343
00:12:27,220 --> 00:12:28,600
不是十八年

344
00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:29,460
也不是十八天

345
00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:30,559
而是未来十八个月

346
00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,440
哪种更可能发生

347
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,179
在接下来的十八个月

348
00:12:34,179 --> 00:12:38,799
AMD股价可能腰斩至两百五十美元

349
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:40,480
或者翻倍

350
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,240
涨到一千美元

351
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:42,919
你认为怎么样

352
00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:44,120
更可能的场景

353
00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,480
在未来十八个月内

354
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,840
我要出去那里并设定一个限制比如

355
00:12:51,190 --> 00:12:53,350
如果我必须下注概率

356
00:12:53,350 --> 00:12:55,990
我会说有百分之九十

357
00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,919
我会说有九倍概率

358
00:13:02,789 --> 00:13:10,789
在未来十八个月内AMD股价突破一千

359
00:13:10,789 --> 00:13:14,649
然后在接下来十八个月内涨到两百五十

360
00:13:15,029 --> 00:13:17,509
九倍更高概率

361
00:13:17,509 --> 00:13:18,470
好的

362
00:13:18,470 --> 00:13:20,090
这就是多么戏剧性

363
00:13:20,090 --> 00:13:21,830
所以

364
00:13:23,820 --> 00:13:26,500
这也是一个很好的思考框架

365
00:13:26,500 --> 00:13:27,899
每当进行投资时

366
00:13:27,899 --> 00:13:28,820
成功的几率有多大

367
00:13:28,820 --> 00:13:29,860
我翻倍收益

368
00:13:29,860 --> 00:13:31,620
记住你买入个股是为了

369
00:13:31,620 --> 00:13:33,379
希望大幅获利对吧

370
00:13:33,379 --> 00:13:36,309
你总是要考虑可能性

371
00:13:36,309 --> 00:13:38,269
股票翻倍获利

372
00:13:38,269 --> 00:13:39,490
可能性有多大

373
00:13:39,490 --> 00:13:41,169
股票亏损50%

374
00:13:41,169 --> 00:13:44,100
在AMD的情况下

375
00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,909
即使在五百美元时

376
00:13:45,909 --> 00:13:48,330
我认为概率大幅提升

377
00:13:48,330 --> 00:13:50,830
股票在此期间翻倍

378
00:13:50,830 --> 00:13:53,568
然后从这里开始跌50%

379
00:13:53,568 --> 00:13:55,629
这是需要记住的

380
00:13:55,629 --> 00:13:56,379
而且

381
00:13:56,379 --> 00:13:56,940
你知道的

382
00:13:56,940 --> 00:13:57,940
即使涨到一千

383
00:13:57,940 --> 00:13:59,460
并不意味着上涨就此结束

384
00:13:59,460 --> 00:14:00,980
这也是要记住的

385
00:14:00,980 --> 00:14:01,940
可能涨到一千五百

386
00:14:01,940 --> 00:14:03,179
甚至两千元

387
00:14:03,179 --> 00:14:05,139
所以

388
00:14:06,340 --> 00:14:09,019
这就是我思考这个问题的方式

389
00:14:09,019 --> 00:14:10,740
而且

390
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,860
当AMD的上涨结束时

391
00:14:14,860 --> 00:14:17,240
不一定立即暴跌

392
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,179
这是很多人容易误解的重要点

393
00:14:19,179 --> 00:14:21,169
当上涨结束时无论价格

394
00:14:21,169 --> 00:14:23,360
今天是五月二十一日

395
00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,720
一千二十一美元

396
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:25,740
任何时候都

397
00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:27,580
一千五百、两千元、三千元

398
00:14:27,580 --> 00:14:30,120
上涨结束时的价格

399
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:31,600
人们会立刻认为

400
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:32,440
它会立即崩盘

401
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,179
这并不一定是它的工作方式

402
00:14:34,179 --> 00:14:35,950
可能会有轻微下跌

403
00:14:35,950 --> 00:14:37,590
最初的脱离过程

404
00:14:37,590 --> 00:14:39,129
顶部的冲击力

405
00:14:39,129 --> 00:14:40,889
可能下跌10%到15%

406
00:14:40,889 --> 00:14:41,990
就是这样对吧

407
00:14:41,990 --> 00:14:43,830
然后我们可能有一段长时间

408
00:14:43,830 --> 00:14:45,330
持续一两年左右

409
00:14:45,330 --> 00:14:46,970
就像在原地跳动的袋鼠

410
00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:48,789
上下波动上下波动

411
00:14:48,789 --> 00:14:51,139
但基本保持原位

412
00:14:51,139 --> 00:14:54,200
之后可能会发生大幅崩盘

413
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,669
所以你知道为什么

414
00:14:56,669 --> 00:14:58,809
为什么这只股票现在要崩盘

415
00:14:58,809 --> 00:15:00,210
请给出你的理由

416
00:15:00,210 --> 00:15:01,820
这并不成立

417
00:15:02,220 --> 00:15:04,759
他们正处于业务初期

418
00:15:04,759 --> 00:15:07,818
过去几年持续高速增长

419
00:15:07,818 --> 00:15:11,298
目前无法为AMD股票崩盘找到理由

420
00:15:11,298 --> 00:15:13,309
股票可能暴跌50%

421
00:15:13,470 --> 00:15:14,350
你说啊

422
00:15:14,350 --> 00:15:14,970
那10%

423
00:15:14,970 --> 00:15:15,789
15%的波动

424
00:15:15,789 --> 00:15:18,190
在半导体公司这算不了什么

425
00:15:18,190 --> 00:15:19,029
这让我睡着了

426
00:15:19,029 --> 00:15:21,990
他们的股票明天可能涨15%

427
00:15:21,990 --> 00:15:23,250
无关紧要

428
00:15:23,250 --> 00:15:25,690
无论半导体股票如何

429
00:15:25,690 --> 00:15:27,110
半导体股票疯狂波动

430
00:15:27,110 --> 00:15:28,289
我意思是整个股市都很疯狂

431
00:15:28,289 --> 00:15:30,328
尤其是半导体股票

432
00:15:30,328 --> 00:15:32,769
如果AMD下跌

433
00:15:32,769 --> 00:15:35,629
接下来一周下跌15%

434
00:15:35,629 --> 00:15:36,409
这让我睡着了

435
00:15:36,409 --> 00:15:37,259
这算不了什么

436
00:15:37,259 --> 00:15:40,139
如果你担心半导体股票下跌

437
00:15:40,139 --> 00:15:41,320
我们说的是一半市值

438
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,500
周三可能暴跌50%以上

439
00:15:45,500 --> 00:15:48,639
短期内不会跌50%

440
00:15:48,639 --> 00:15:50,159
总有一天

441
00:15:50,159 --> 00:15:51,779
它终将到来

442
00:15:51,779 --> 00:15:53,460
今天不是明天

443
00:15:53,460 --> 00:15:54,340
今年也不是

444
00:15:54,340 --> 00:15:55,879
明年大概率也不会

445
00:15:55,879 --> 00:15:58,309
但未来终会到来

446
00:15:58,309 --> 00:15:59,990
没错，现在

447
00:15:59,990 --> 00:16:02,110
此刻充满无畏的言论

448
00:16:02,110 --> 00:16:05,059
一切将比预期大幅好转

449
00:16:05,059 --> 00:16:07,860
CPU和GPU需求疯狂增长

450
00:16:07,860 --> 00:16:08,879
未来数年将持续如此

451
00:16:08,879 --> 00:16:10,120
他们拿下了所有大客户

452
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,860
你想要在市场上获得他们的定价优势

453
00:16:12,860 --> 00:16:13,409
没错

454
00:16:13,409 --> 00:16:16,309
他们的利润率将大幅增长

455
00:16:16,309 --> 00:16:18,690
每股收益将以更快的速度增长

456
00:16:18,690 --> 00:16:20,549
比任何东西都快

457
00:16:20,549 --> 00:16:23,570
我们来看看收入方面

458
00:16:23,570 --> 00:16:26,220
所以你知道这其实

459
00:16:26,220 --> 00:16:27,720
对我来说很简单

460
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,100
现在这只股票并不难持有

461
00:16:30,100 --> 00:16:31,039
其实不是

462
00:16:31,039 --> 00:16:33,720
你知道我在这只股票上赚了几百万美元

463
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:38,220
我现在完全没有卖股的念头

464
00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:40,519
总有一天我会开始兑现

465
00:16:40,519 --> 00:16:42,899
也许在今年晚些时候

466
00:16:42,899 --> 00:16:44,220
也许在明年

467
00:16:44,220 --> 00:16:45,500
也许在2028年对吧

468
00:16:45,500 --> 00:16:48,320
我总有一天会开始兑现AMD股份

469
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,100
就像我兑现了所有特斯拉股份

470
00:16:51,100 --> 00:16:55,000
就像去年我兑现了大部分Paler股份

471
00:16:55,000 --> 00:17:01,970
没错到时候我会卖出大量AMD股票

472
00:17:01,970 --> 00:17:06,609
虽然要支付高额税款但

473
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:08,759
嘿今天

474
00:17:08,759 --> 00:17:10,059
还不是今天

475
00:17:10,059 --> 00:17:10,619
好的

476
00:17:10,619 --> 00:17:11,039
好的

477
00:17:11,039 --> 00:17:11,680
接下来这里

478
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:12,400
我们来聊聊

479
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:13,940
Elf股票讨论

480
00:17:13,940 --> 00:17:15,909
给你们带来好消息

481
00:17:15,909 --> 00:17:17,709
就在过去一小时左右

482
00:17:17,709 --> 00:17:20,969
Ulta美容财报出炉全在美妆领域

483
00:17:20,969 --> 00:17:23,638
净销售额增长11.1%

484
00:17:23,638 --> 00:17:27,199
同店销售增长5.3%

485
00:17:27,199 --> 00:17:29,459
这是需要重点关注的关键数据

486
00:17:29,459 --> 00:17:33,650
没错同店销售增长5.3%

487
00:17:33,650 --> 00:17:34,388
好的

488
00:17:34,388 --> 00:17:37,848
这是好消息整体销售额增长11%

489
00:17:37,848 --> 00:17:38,788
这是好消息

490
00:17:38,788 --> 00:17:40,888
没错而且

491
00:17:40,888 --> 00:17:42,880
这非常令人兴奋

492
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,839
对Elf股票来说非常振奋

493
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:46,579
请注意

494
00:17:46,579 --> 00:17:47,200
呃

495
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:52,559
这两家与Alta EL及旗下品牌业务密切的公司

496
00:17:52,559 --> 00:17:55,920
他们拥有众多品牌在Alta门店

497
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:57,009
然后是Elf

498
00:17:57,009 --> 00:17:58,710
仅这两家品牌

499
00:17:58,710 --> 00:18:01,009
在Alta门店占据大量空间

500
00:18:01,009 --> 00:18:02,930
没错同时Ulta的线上销售也很强劲

501
00:18:02,930 --> 00:18:04,109
所以请记住这一点

502
00:18:04,109 --> 00:18:07,990
但这些数字真的很强 好于去年很多

503
00:18:07,990 --> 00:18:09,329
没错就在去年这个时候

504
00:18:09,329 --> 00:18:12,049
同比销售增长仅2.9% 对比去年的5.3%

505
00:18:12,049 --> 00:18:13,309
所以如果有的话 我会关注它

506
00:18:13,309 --> 00:18:17,630
我认为美容品类中的彩妆类别在增长

507
00:18:17,630 --> 00:18:18,930
情况在好转

508
00:18:18,930 --> 00:18:20,410
没有变得更糟

509
00:18:20,410 --> 00:18:22,890
毛利率也在提升

510
00:18:22,890 --> 00:18:24,009
甚至对Alt板块增速更快

511
00:18:24,009 --> 00:18:25,339
这对公司也是利好

512
00:18:25,339 --> 00:18:26,400
我喜欢这一点

513
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,819
我也评估了他们的损益表 Alto Alis

514
00:18:28,819 --> 00:18:29,500
这是一家很棒的公司

515
00:18:29,500 --> 00:18:30,079
顺便说一句

516
00:18:30,079 --> 00:18:32,680
少数真正有趣的实体零售商之一

517
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:33,259
没错

518
00:18:33,259 --> 00:18:35,220
但我评估了他们的损益表

519
00:18:35,220 --> 00:18:39,589
这里给出B+评级 毛利率有所提升 营业成本同比略有下降

520
00:18:39,589 --> 00:18:41,930
实际上大幅下降100个基点 同比显著改善

521
00:18:41,930 --> 00:18:43,230
毛利率升至40.1%

522
00:18:43,230 --> 00:18:44,430
从39.1%提升

523
00:18:44,430 --> 00:18:46,029
这很不错

524
00:18:46,029 --> 00:18:48,109
SG&A是这里的一个问题点

525
00:18:48,109 --> 00:18:49,910
占比22.5%

526
00:18:49,910 --> 00:18:51,009
占公司营收8%

527
00:18:51,009 --> 00:18:53,029
而去年同期为24.9%

528
00:18:53,029 --> 00:18:54,690
同期为24.9%

529
00:18:54,690 --> 00:18:59,680
营业利润增长远不及预期

530
00:19:00,700 --> 00:19:04,220
你知道的 增幅微乎其微

531
00:19:04,220 --> 00:19:05,940
同比仅微增

532
00:19:05,940 --> 00:19:07,420
本应大幅增长

533
00:19:07,420 --> 00:19:09,579
鉴于毛利率显著提升

534
00:19:09,579 --> 00:19:10,180
所以

535
00:19:10,180 --> 00:19:10,859
但总体而言

536
00:19:10,859 --> 00:19:13,599
仍为优秀评级 B+级非常出色

537
00:19:13,599 --> 00:19:14,700
无需感到羞耻

538
00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:18,980
这对ELF股票是重大利好

539
00:19:18,980 --> 00:19:23,460
因此ELF在货架上

540
00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:25,180
如果存在股票

541
00:19:25,180 --> 00:19:26,759
我们需要强劲的好消息

542
00:19:26,759 --> 00:19:27,299
就是ELF

543
00:19:27,299 --> 00:19:27,660
我是说

544
00:19:27,660 --> 00:19:28,529
这已经持续

545
00:19:28,529 --> 00:19:30,470
就股票而言

546
00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:32,250
这是最佳世代性买入机会

547
00:19:32,250 --> 00:19:33,009
我见过的ELF

548
00:19:33,009 --> 00:19:36,170
自2019年以7美元/股回购以来

549
00:19:36,170 --> 00:19:37,869
没错 除此之外

550
00:19:37,869 --> 00:19:40,569
这是买入ELF股票的最佳时机

551
00:19:40,569 --> 00:19:43,269
现在我们对关税形势有了更清晰的了解

552
00:19:43,269 --> 00:19:44,089
在这个时间节点

553
00:19:44,089 --> 00:19:44,609
没错

554
00:19:44,609 --> 00:19:47,179
呃，我的意思是

555
00:19:47,179 --> 00:19:51,618
我觉得台式机卖五十二美元简直疯狂

556
00:19:51,618 --> 00:19:56,900
随便什么价格，而EL股票将会大幅上涨

557
00:19:56,900 --> 00:19:58,700
明天会涨很多吗

558
00:19:58,700 --> 00:20:01,328
我们都会看到它们明天大幅上涨

559
00:20:01,328 --> 00:20:04,339
两者从现在到你结束前都应该大幅上涨

560
00:20:04,339 --> 00:20:07,920
像EL五十二现在这支股票应该在今年退出

561
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,599
但这并不意味着一定会

562
00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:12,119
但今年应该会退出

563
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,500
在每股八十到一百美元之间

564
00:20:14,500 --> 00:20:15,559
EL股票

565
00:20:15,559 --> 00:20:18,539
现在八十叁，这支股票应该...

566
00:20:18,539 --> 00:20:20,039
但今年应该会退出

567
00:20:20,039 --> 00:20:21,159
一百二十多

568
00:20:21,159 --> 00:20:21,939
我们拭目以待

569
00:20:21,939 --> 00:20:23,038
我们确实要看看

570
00:20:23,038 --> 00:20:24,058
所以EL股票

571
00:20:24,058 --> 00:20:26,098
关于SOFI股票我有个好消息

572
00:20:26,098 --> 00:20:26,439
好的

573
00:20:26,439 --> 00:20:27,299
听着

574
00:20:27,299 --> 00:20:28,579
如果你想知道为什么

575
00:20:28,579 --> 00:20:30,880
我从三十多跌到十五

576
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:31,579
对的

577
00:20:31,579 --> 00:20:34,660
股价被腰斩，很大程度上

578
00:20:34,660 --> 00:20:35,019
因为

579
00:20:35,019 --> 00:20:38,940
显然担忧国债收益率上升

580
00:20:38,940 --> 00:20:41,309
通胀加剧对吧

581
00:20:41,309 --> 00:20:43,710
导致美联储不降息

582
00:20:43,710 --> 00:20:45,069
可能加息

583
00:20:45,069 --> 00:20:49,190
导致非常糟糕的局面

584
00:20:49,190 --> 00:20:51,269
没错，而且

585
00:20:51,750 --> 00:20:54,210
意味着严重后果

586
00:20:54,210 --> 00:20:55,009
比如SOFA

587
00:20:55,009 --> 00:20:56,269
对吧

588
00:20:58,599 --> 00:20:59,400
收益率在下降

589
00:21:01,079 --> 00:21:04,519
关于通胀的非理性担忧正在加剧

590
00:21:04,519 --> 00:21:07,199
所有这些情况开始缓解

591
00:21:07,199 --> 00:21:09,338
所以继续关注国债

592
00:21:09,338 --> 00:21:10,519
密切关注国债

593
00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:12,630
如果我说得简单点

594
00:21:12,630 --> 00:21:16,670
如果未来三个月国债收益率持续下跌

595
00:21:16,670 --> 00:21:20,190
SOI股票将在未来三个月大幅上涨

596
00:21:20,190 --> 00:21:21,630
就这么简单

597
00:21:21,630 --> 00:21:22,509
就这么简单

598
00:21:22,509 --> 00:21:24,049
国债收益率在下降

599
00:21:24,049 --> 00:21:26,029
这将利好

600
00:21:26,029 --> 00:21:28,630
SOI股票，我们来看看华尔街动态

601
00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:30,109
战略资本的警官

602
00:21:30,109 --> 00:21:32,269
以及CBC的记者

603
00:21:32,269 --> 00:21:33,329
嗯，汤姆欢迎你

604
00:21:33,329 --> 00:21:33,670
我不知道

605
00:21:33,670 --> 00:21:34,890
如果你听到我在说话

606
00:21:34,890 --> 00:21:35,950
我不需要笔记

607
00:21:35,950 --> 00:21:37,430
嗯，谈谈你

608
00:21:37,430 --> 00:21:38,730
因为你经常出现

609
00:21:38,730 --> 00:21:40,710
我记得你说过的话

610
00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:43,609
在我们深入讨论华尔街之前

611
00:21:43,609 --> 00:21:43,930
顺便说一句

612
00:21:43,930 --> 00:21:44,789
如果你想申请加入

613
00:21:44,789 --> 00:21:45,789
加入我的私密群组

614
00:21:45,789 --> 00:21:47,589
获取所有课程大纲

615
00:21:47,589 --> 00:21:48,430
私密Discord频道

616
00:21:48,430 --> 00:21:49,670
聊天千x股票网

617
00:21:49,670 --> 00:21:52,190
所有这些好东西你得尽快行动

618
00:21:52,190 --> 00:21:53,470
那里会留下置顶评论

619
00:21:53,470 --> 00:21:57,230
我们将很快关闭新成员入口

620
00:21:57,230 --> 00:21:57,730
好的

621
00:21:57,730 --> 00:21:58,230
嗯

622
00:21:58,230 --> 00:22:01,349
我们要休一个长长的暑假

623
00:22:01,349 --> 00:22:03,410
关于私密群组的新成员

624
00:22:03,410 --> 00:22:05,670
所以很快就会关闭入口，请记住

625
00:22:05,670 --> 00:22:06,750
如果你有人需要帮助

626
00:22:06,750 --> 00:22:07,269
你想获得帮助

627
00:22:07,269 --> 00:22:10,199
你想加入一群高水准人群

628
00:22:10,199 --> 00:22:14,289
六七位数投资者的置顶评论在那里

629
00:22:14,289 --> 00:22:15,309
填写申请表

630
00:22:15,309 --> 00:22:19,789
在关闭新成员入口前申请加入

631
00:22:19,789 --> 00:22:22,140
为接下来要讨论的内容做准备

632
00:22:22,140 --> 00:22:27,058
你曾做出一些不该做的交易

633
00:22:27,058 --> 00:22:29,239
周五将公布良好的通胀数据

634
00:22:29,239 --> 00:22:31,380
美国标普指数将上涨

635
00:22:31,380 --> 00:22:34,940
本周上涨8%，通常会兑现

636
00:22:34,940 --> 00:22:38,299
你以无所畏惧著称

637
00:22:38,299 --> 00:22:40,529
你最近的操作

638
00:22:40,529 --> 00:22:41,230
嗯

639
00:22:41,230 --> 00:22:45,869
虽然图表上不明显

640
00:22:45,869 --> 00:22:52,499
但全年你持多头，我们走势良好

641
00:22:52,499 --> 00:22:56,349
几乎像解放日一样

642
00:22:56,349 --> 00:22:57,809
抛售没有那么严重

643
00:22:57,809 --> 00:22:58,990
但相当陡峭

644
00:22:58,990 --> 00:23:01,309
你说已经结束了

645
00:23:02,869 --> 00:23:06,349
月底我们将显著上涨

646
00:23:06,349 --> 00:23:10,440
恰逢局势恶化之际

647
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,880
不仅如此

648
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:13,259
四月强劲反弹

649
00:23:13,259 --> 00:23:15,400
正如你所说完美收官

650
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,279
我们有很多人要来

651
00:23:17,279 --> 00:23:17,680
快点

652
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,740
真不知道要花多少时间拍马屁

653
00:23:19,740 --> 00:23:21,039
汤姆·李，我们到底需要在这里做什么

654
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:23,009
这是短期还是长期

655
00:23:23,009 --> 00:23:25,250
而且这完全相反

656
00:23:25,250 --> 00:23:27,009
你知道你做得很好

657
00:23:27,009 --> 00:23:27,529
时不时地

658
00:23:27,529 --> 00:23:28,329
你不可能永远做到

659
00:23:28,329 --> 00:23:28,890
不过汤姆

660
00:23:28,890 --> 00:23:30,269
总有一天你会出错

661
00:23:30,269 --> 00:23:32,490
但这次你又对了

662
00:23:32,809 --> 00:23:34,369
嗯是啊

663
00:23:34,369 --> 00:23:35,759
哦

664
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:36,720
我的意思是

665
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:37,400
尽管很尊重

666
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:37,960
我啊

667
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:38,759
我一直在看汤姆·李

668
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:39,480
一直都是对吧

669
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:40,640
我看他经常出错

670
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,960
比如所有应得的尊重

671
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,489
他简直糟糕透了

672
00:23:44,489 --> 00:23:45,808
他有时是对的

673
00:23:45,808 --> 00:23:47,409
大部分时间确实正确

674
00:23:47,409 --> 00:23:50,640
但你知道我不喜欢我们假装

675
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:51,319
哦对啊

676
00:23:51,319 --> 00:23:52,680
他说的每件事都应验

677
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:53,849
这完全不真实

678
00:23:53,849 --> 00:23:54,250
比如

679
00:23:54,250 --> 00:23:56,950
当我观看汤姆·李的视频并在此频道反应时

680
00:23:56,950 --> 00:23:58,980
当我2023年创建这个频道时

681
00:23:58,980 --> 00:24:00,539
我想应该是我创建了这个频道

682
00:24:00,539 --> 00:24:00,900
我不确定

683
00:24:00,900 --> 00:24:02,059
我多年前就创建了这个频道

684
00:24:02,059 --> 00:24:03,059
我们一直反应汤姆·李的内容

685
00:24:03,059 --> 00:24:03,539
天啊

686
00:24:03,539 --> 00:24:05,559
汤姆·李追随我百万次

687
00:24:05,559 --> 00:24:06,960
也在X上关注我

688
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,220
但说实话他经常正确

689
00:24:10,220 --> 00:24:11,460
他接到很多正确的电话

690
00:24:11,460 --> 00:24:12,940
但他也经常出错

691
00:24:12,940 --> 00:24:16,789
别假装一切都和我不同

692
00:24:16,789 --> 00:24:17,309
对吧

693
00:24:17,309 --> 00:24:18,869
我很幸运在亏损股上正确

694
00:24:18,869 --> 00:24:19,390
某些股票

695
00:24:19,390 --> 00:24:20,210
我在某些股票上犯错

696
00:24:20,210 --> 00:24:20,630
某些股票

697
00:24:20,630 --> 00:24:22,029
最终以亏损卖出

698
00:24:22,029 --> 00:24:22,190
比如

699
00:24:22,190 --> 00:24:22,910
你不可能每次都正确

700
00:24:22,910 --> 00:24:23,990
百分之百正确

701
00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:25,109
让我们别让我们

702
00:24:25,109 --> 00:24:25,910
我讨厌这个

703
00:24:25,910 --> 00:24:27,569
每当有人被当作像

704
00:24:27,569 --> 00:24:28,269
你知道的

705
00:24:28,269 --> 00:24:29,890
而且几乎显得

706
00:24:29,890 --> 00:24:32,329
好像他们总是对的

707
00:24:32,329 --> 00:24:33,410
我们也会犯错

708
00:24:33,410 --> 00:24:35,470
比如沃伦·巴菲特也会像

709
00:24:35,470 --> 00:24:36,930
如果沃伦·巴菲特犯错

710
00:24:36,930 --> 00:24:38,259
我也会犯错

711
00:24:38,259 --> 00:24:40,460
你知道如果沃伦·巴菲特犯错

712
00:24:40,460 --> 00:24:41,660
汤利也会犯错

713
00:24:41,660 --> 00:24:43,980
没有人在这个游戏中能百发百中

714
00:24:43,980 --> 00:24:45,000
谢谢乔

715
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,759
我知道市场对大家来说很艰难

716
00:24:47,759 --> 00:24:48,380
我是说

717
00:24:48,380 --> 00:24:49,160
我并不意外

718
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,799
你知道我们原本预期2026年会是

719
00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:54,079
可能出现动荡的一年

720
00:24:54,079 --> 00:24:56,220
人们会看到假动作

721
00:24:56,220 --> 00:24:57,059
嗯

722
00:24:57,059 --> 00:25:00,420
但美国仍有强大的顺风

723
00:25:00,420 --> 00:25:03,130
比如人工智能的故事

724
00:25:03,130 --> 00:25:03,910
嗯

725
00:25:03,910 --> 00:25:06,710
现在我们了解能源独立

726
00:25:06,710 --> 00:25:07,170
没错

727
00:25:07,170 --> 00:25:09,309
美国能应对高油价

728
00:25:09,309 --> 00:25:12,099
因为我们不会短缺

729
00:25:12,890 --> 00:25:14,829
然后还有新的助力

730
00:25:14,829 --> 00:25:16,529
因为人工智能逐步落地

731
00:25:16,529 --> 00:25:18,529
正大幅助力美国企业

732
00:25:18,529 --> 00:25:21,549
我认为这就是标普财报的表现

733
00:25:21,549 --> 00:25:24,450
但只是首季增长十美元

734
00:25:24,450 --> 00:25:24,890
嗯

735
00:25:24,890 --> 00:25:26,670
全年累计四十美元

736
00:25:26,670 --> 00:25:30,369
若以二十倍市盈率计算，标普将涨八百点

737
00:25:30,369 --> 00:25:34,910
因此我认为股市能反弹有坚实基础

738
00:25:35,910 --> 00:25:36,579
嗯

739
00:25:36,579 --> 00:25:37,440
所以是的

740
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:38,429
所以是

741
00:25:38,429 --> 00:25:39,429
但你知道再次

742
00:25:39,429 --> 00:25:43,449
我认为我们仍可能在年底前面临挑战

743
00:25:43,449 --> 00:25:45,588
因此大家仍需保持警惕

744
00:25:45,588 --> 00:25:47,630
但总体看涨

745
00:25:47,990 --> 00:25:52,230
你对接下来两到两年半的情况怎么看

746
00:25:52,230 --> 00:25:56,338
将是历史上最好的市场表现之一

747
00:25:56,338 --> 00:25:57,398
你仍然这么认为吗

748
00:25:57,398 --> 00:25:59,638
这并非在这节目里

749
00:25:59,638 --> 00:26:00,479
你曾在别处提到过

750
00:26:00,479 --> 00:26:00,798
但具体是什么

751
00:26:00,798 --> 00:26:06,078
你对未来两年的预测是什么

752
00:26:06,078 --> 00:26:07,558
这是基于什么依据的

753
00:26:07,558 --> 00:26:08,720
嗯

754
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,799
我认为几件事正在汇聚

755
00:26:10,799 --> 00:26:13,869
乔，这些都将真正支持

756
00:26:13,869 --> 00:26:17,930
有些事情可能一生只有一次

757
00:26:17,930 --> 00:26:22,809
其中一个是我认为美国经济增长率实际上开始回升

758
00:26:22,809 --> 00:26:23,569
嗯

759
00:26:23,569 --> 00:26:23,970
你知道的

760
00:26:23,970 --> 00:26:24,589
换句话说

761
00:26:24,589 --> 00:26:26,069
我们可能实现4%的增长

762
00:26:26,069 --> 00:26:26,940
对于

763
00:26:26,940 --> 00:26:27,299
你知道的

764
00:26:27,299 --> 00:26:31,039
作为全球最大成熟经济体开始加速增长

765
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:33,659
这相当惊人

766
00:26:33,659 --> 00:26:34,179
嗯

767
00:26:34,179 --> 00:26:39,190
第二点是美国是最重要的工具的主要出口国

768
00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:41,190
在未来十年到十五年

769
00:26:41,190 --> 00:26:42,700
也就是人工智能产品

770
00:26:42,700 --> 00:26:48,170
这意味着我们是高价值产品的净出口国

771
00:26:48,170 --> 00:26:49,990
而且存在大量

772
00:26:49,990 --> 00:26:51,750
我认为目前被错配的资本

773
00:26:51,750 --> 00:26:54,930
因为大部分资金集中在私人领域

774
00:26:54,930 --> 00:26:56,529
但资金将流入公开市场

775
00:26:56,529 --> 00:26:57,549
因此我认为

776
00:26:58,549 --> 00:27:03,420
再加上千禧一代和Z世代充实劳动力

777
00:27:03,420 --> 00:27:06,939
同时开始继承代际财富

778
00:27:06,939 --> 00:27:11,239
我认为这将在2026年后形成

779
00:27:11,239 --> 00:27:13,049
或许你知道

780
00:27:13,049 --> 00:27:13,650
你知道的

781
00:27:13,650 --> 00:27:14,609
在未来两年

782
00:27:14,609 --> 00:27:18,089
可能是我们一生中股市的最大涨幅

783
00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:19,849
我们刚刚经历了一轮行情

784
00:27:19,849 --> 00:27:22,930
所以你认为我们近期可能触及7700点

785
00:27:22,930 --> 00:27:25,549
然后出现回调

786
00:27:25,549 --> 00:27:27,710
在中期选举后

787
00:27:27,710 --> 00:27:29,969
我们将进入

788
00:27:29,969 --> 00:27:32,449
回调是否与中期选举同期

789
00:27:32,449 --> 00:27:33,249
这次回调

790
00:27:33,249 --> 00:27:35,689
然后在回调后出现更高点

791
00:27:35,689 --> 00:27:37,329
就是这样

792
00:27:37,329 --> 00:27:38,720
我认为没错

793
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:38,920
是的

794
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:39,240
我意思是

795
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,039
这是我们最好的

796
00:27:41,039 --> 00:27:41,319
猜测

797
00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:41,599
你知道的

798
00:27:41,599 --> 00:27:44,220
我认为六月市场仍能延续涨幅

799
00:27:44,220 --> 00:27:46,470
但不会以可能的速度

800
00:27:46,470 --> 00:27:49,368
我认为资金正在流向下游

801
00:27:49,368 --> 00:27:53,359
因此将会有软件行业和人工智能受益者

802
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:58,789
但假设在六月到十月期间我们仍需消化

803
00:27:58,789 --> 00:28:01,930
可能有三起重大IPO上市

804
00:28:01,930 --> 00:28:06,829
市场将试图理解凯文·沃尔什的新通胀模型

805
00:28:06,829 --> 00:28:09,388
但我觉得市场总会测试新的美联储政策

806
00:28:09,388 --> 00:28:12,788
然后还要考虑中期选举的季节性规律

807
00:28:12,788 --> 00:28:15,209
因此我认为可能会出现回调

808
00:28:15,209 --> 00:28:16,749
这会让人感觉像熊市

809
00:28:16,749 --> 00:28:22,569
正如你所知二月到四月的跌幅达9%

810
00:28:22,569 --> 00:28:23,849
但当时感觉像崩盘

811
00:28:23,849 --> 00:28:26,750
因此我认为市场将面临巨大压力

812
00:28:26,750 --> 00:28:28,839
如果我们开始出现回调

813
00:28:28,839 --> 00:28:30,680
当然从十月开始

814
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,269
我想那时会强劲

815
00:28:32,269 --> 00:28:33,990
将开启强劲反弹

816
00:28:33,990 --> 00:28:34,750
安德鲁·沃森

817
00:28:34,750 --> 00:28:35,349
我本来要

818
00:28:35,349 --> 00:28:37,269
我想说你对加密货币的看空太狠了

819
00:28:37,269 --> 00:28:38,309
但但我不确定

820
00:28:38,309 --> 00:28:39,980
我当时处于不同立场

821
00:28:39,980 --> 00:28:41,259
我们也可以这样做

822
00:28:41,259 --> 00:28:43,740
但我想问他关于马克·库班

823
00:28:43,740 --> 00:28:45,220
不知道你是否看到马克·库班

824
00:28:45,220 --> 00:28:48,829
他表示已清仓抛售所有比特币

825
00:28:48,829 --> 00:28:53,890
因为他不再认为其能作为避险资产

826
00:28:53,890 --> 00:28:54,210
好的

827
00:28:54,210 --> 00:28:55,930
在继续之前

828
00:28:55,930 --> 00:28:56,490
嗯

829
00:28:56,490 --> 00:28:58,750
让我谈谈这个情况

830
00:28:58,750 --> 00:29:02,989
人们普遍认为市场应该

831
00:29:02,989 --> 00:29:05,308
本应在五月开始走弱

832
00:29:05,308 --> 00:29:08,230
并一路抛售

833
00:29:08,230 --> 00:29:08,950
嗯

834
00:29:08,950 --> 00:29:10,470
我们可以称到十月

835
00:29:10,470 --> 00:29:12,190
可能接近万圣节

836
00:29:12,190 --> 00:29:12,769
对吧

837
00:29:12,769 --> 00:29:16,170
然后年末强劲复苏

838
00:29:16,170 --> 00:29:17,349
年末会有漂亮反弹

839
00:29:17,349 --> 00:29:18,349
这是一种预期

840
00:29:18,349 --> 00:29:22,950
每当看到大量人同时预测市场走势

841
00:29:22,950 --> 00:29:23,750
我认为市场可能不会按此发展

842
00:29:23,750 --> 00:29:24,710
这让我想到

843
00:29:24,710 --> 00:29:26,529
或许我们不会去那里

844
00:29:26,529 --> 00:29:31,569
最终的对冲情景是

845
00:29:31,569 --> 00:29:37,640
市场持续强劲表现

846
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,569
直到十月

847
00:29:39,569 --> 00:29:41,829
然后在十月某个时间点

848
00:29:41,829 --> 00:29:43,329
市场开始大幅下跌

849
00:29:43,329 --> 00:29:45,289
一路跌至年末

850
00:29:45,289 --> 00:29:46,569
对直到圣诞节

851
00:29:46,569 --> 00:29:48,579
那就是那个呃

852
00:29:49,859 --> 00:29:51,539
终极相反的情况

853
00:29:51,539 --> 00:29:52,759
你知道的

854
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:54,160
但并非总是如此

855
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:54,859
但很多时候

856
00:29:54,859 --> 00:29:58,349
我发现市场往往与大众预期相反

857
00:29:58,349 --> 00:30:01,380
所以最滑稽的事情是

858
00:30:01,380 --> 00:30:03,920
如果我们一直持续到十月

859
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,400
然后我们将迎来一次大幅

860
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:05,839
你知道的

861
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:06,619
市场回调

862
00:30:06,619 --> 00:30:07,980
或者类似的情况对吧

863
00:30:07,980 --> 00:30:11,119
但如果你是长期投资者

864
00:30:11,119 --> 00:30:13,220
不要指望这种事情发生

865
00:30:13,220 --> 00:30:14,609
你知道的

866
00:30:14,609 --> 00:30:16,630
太多人试图玩这种时机游戏

867
00:30:16,630 --> 00:30:16,930
我就像

868
00:30:16,930 --> 00:30:16,970
哦

869
00:30:16,970 --> 00:30:17,730
我要全部抛售

870
00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:19,250
因为我们可能接下来三个月下跌

871
00:30:19,250 --> 00:30:20,230
然后他们会重新买入

872
00:30:20,230 --> 00:30:21,089
或者我要这么做

873
00:30:22,130 --> 00:30:22,930
别瞎折腾

874
00:30:22,930 --> 00:30:24,588
兄弟别瞎折腾

875
00:30:24,588 --> 00:30:25,669
保持简单

876
00:30:25,669 --> 00:30:26,548
保持简单

877
00:30:26,548 --> 00:30:26,888
愚蠢的

878
00:30:26,888 --> 00:30:27,608
正如他们所说

879
00:30:27,608 --> 00:30:27,868
兄弟

880
00:30:27,868 --> 00:30:29,409
你只需按自己的节奏操作

881
00:30:29,409 --> 00:30:31,548
别纠结进进出出的时机

882
00:30:31,548 --> 00:30:32,489
市场可能下跌

883
00:30:32,489 --> 00:30:33,348
市场可能上涨

884
00:30:33,348 --> 00:30:34,548
不不不不

885
00:30:34,548 --> 00:30:36,769
别担心个股表现

886
00:30:36,769 --> 00:30:39,210
当需要卖出时

887
00:30:39,210 --> 00:30:39,910
你知道的

888
00:30:39,910 --> 00:30:42,890
逐步减仓并玩这个游戏

889
00:30:42,890 --> 00:30:43,890
但别试图

890
00:30:43,890 --> 00:30:45,890
市场时机正是我栽跟头的地方

891
00:30:45,890 --> 00:30:49,369
这次我们谁也不知道就是在碰运气

892
00:30:49,369 --> 00:30:51,170
对吧而且嗯

893
00:30:51,170 --> 00:30:52,390
我说汤姆·李错了

894
00:30:52,390 --> 00:30:54,410
在市场预测上也有很多次

895
00:30:54,410 --> 00:30:54,809
没错

896
00:30:54,809 --> 00:30:57,009
这让我想到汤姆·李

897
00:30:57,009 --> 00:30:58,710
你知道牛市

898
00:30:58,710 --> 00:30:59,609
大家都喜欢汤姆·李

899
00:30:59,609 --> 00:31:00,670
但我不只是告诉你

900
00:31:00,670 --> 00:31:03,190
你知道我2022年时大家恨他

901
00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:04,309
人们讨厌他们

902
00:31:04,309 --> 00:31:04,950
等等

903
00:31:04,950 --> 00:31:07,990
下次市场出现大幅下跌周期时

904
00:31:07,990 --> 00:31:09,349
他们又会讨厌汤姆·李

905
00:31:09,349 --> 00:31:11,119
下次我们遇到熊市时

906
00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:14,559
他们不会喜欢通胀或其他任何事

907
00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:18,009
认为黄金已被证明是更优的

908
00:31:18,009 --> 00:31:18,829
更稳妥的选择

909
00:31:18,829 --> 00:31:21,450
而比特币并未表现出应有的

910
00:31:21,450 --> 00:31:22,049
表现

911
00:31:23,990 --> 00:31:27,890
你说呢 嗯 你知道的

912
00:31:27,890 --> 00:31:28,750
从一方面看

913
00:31:28,750 --> 00:31:29,750
我认为马克是对的

914
00:31:29,750 --> 00:31:31,009
加密货币令人失望

915
00:31:31,009 --> 00:31:33,349
因为加密货币应该与

916
00:31:33,349 --> 00:31:33,990
你知道的

917
00:31:33,990 --> 00:31:34,630
股票市场同步

918
00:31:34,630 --> 00:31:36,430
并且应该随软件板块上涨

919
00:31:36,430 --> 00:31:39,589
软件板块已大幅上涨而加密货币却未动

920
00:31:40,589 --> 00:31:41,130
嗯

921
00:31:41,130 --> 00:31:43,390
所以我认为这就是我所说的

922
00:31:43,390 --> 00:31:43,950
引用的愤怒

923
00:31:43,950 --> 00:31:46,049
人们在此抛售

924
00:31:46,049 --> 00:31:47,569
仿佛出了问题

925
00:31:47,569 --> 00:31:48,450
我的意思是

926
00:31:48,450 --> 00:31:52,269
我认为这就是加密货币赢家在周期末总会发生的事

927
00:31:52,269 --> 00:31:56,750
如果有人问我比特币或以太坊的理论是否被证伪

928
00:31:56,750 --> 00:31:58,250
你知道的 这绝对不是

929
00:31:58,250 --> 00:31:59,150
因为首先

930
00:31:59,150 --> 00:32:00,349
我们所做的工作越多

931
00:32:00,349 --> 00:32:03,150
就像帕兰蒂尔创始人所说

932
00:32:03,150 --> 00:32:06,630
比特币和以太坊将是货币的未来

933
00:32:06,630 --> 00:32:07,990
因为规模与计算力

934
00:32:07,990 --> 00:32:08,990
或计算力与能源

935
00:32:08,990 --> 00:32:11,920
无论埃隆如何表述 这才是真正令人担忧的

936
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,339
你需要控制智能系统

937
00:32:14,339 --> 00:32:17,700
随着AI系统的发展

938
00:32:17,700 --> 00:32:21,009
我们现在讨论的是商业和网站运营

939
00:32:21,009 --> 00:32:23,529
需要去中心化身份与验证

940
00:32:23,529 --> 00:32:25,289
这才是加密货币的作用

941
00:32:25,289 --> 00:32:29,349
我们清楚华尔街正转向代币化

942
00:32:29,349 --> 00:32:31,970
这是资金流动效率的巨大提升

943
00:32:31,970 --> 00:32:32,450
在

944
00:32:32,450 --> 00:32:33,880
实际上资金流动方式

945
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,220
这是一项创新

946
00:32:35,220 --> 00:32:35,640
嗯

947
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,160
这只会发生在比特币、以太坊和其他智能合约上

948
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,660
未来并未改变

949
00:32:41,660 --> 00:32:43,940
但今天的焦点是

950
00:32:43,940 --> 00:32:47,349
当然在半导体内存开始软件阶段

951
00:32:47,349 --> 00:32:50,210
但随着人们聚焦未来下游方向

952
00:32:50,210 --> 00:32:53,630
这确实是我认为比特币和以太坊面临的关键时刻

953
00:32:53,630 --> 00:32:56,569
当你谈论股票时

954
00:32:56,569 --> 00:32:57,390
是的没错

955
00:32:57,390 --> 00:32:57,750
我是说

956
00:32:57,750 --> 00:33:01,440
现在比特币处于非常艰难的境地

957
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,299
你知道的，跌至67000美元

958
00:33:04,299 --> 00:33:07,599
从纳斯达克创历史新高的角度来看

959
00:33:07,599 --> 00:33:09,579
天啊纳斯达克创历史新高

960
00:33:09,579 --> 00:33:12,299
许多风险偏好型股票如英伟达

961
00:33:12,299 --> 00:33:12,779
你知道的

962
00:33:12,779 --> 00:33:15,700
半导体公司AMD、美光等都在上涨

963
00:33:15,700 --> 00:33:18,190
这时候通常会说

964
00:33:18,190 --> 00:33:21,349
如果你长期研究比特币并关注它

965
00:33:21,349 --> 00:33:23,809
无论花多少时间比特币都会大幅波动

966
00:33:23,809 --> 00:33:24,869
半导体板块大幅波动

967
00:33:24,869 --> 00:33:25,970
纳斯达克大幅波动

968
00:33:25,970 --> 00:33:26,930
大盘股大幅波动

969
00:33:26,930 --> 00:33:28,750
以太坊波动更剧烈

970
00:33:28,750 --> 00:33:32,888
这些资产持续暴跌令人痛心

971
00:33:34,289 --> 00:33:35,529
让人不禁感叹

972
00:33:35,529 --> 00:33:41,049
如果纳斯达克最终出现大幅回调会怎样

973
00:33:41,049 --> 00:33:42,769
比如在夏季

974
00:33:42,769 --> 00:33:43,730
或者当

975
00:33:43,730 --> 00:33:44,650
假设在全周期内

976
00:33:44,650 --> 00:33:45,869
或许根本不会发生

977
00:33:45,869 --> 00:33:46,829
但我要说

978
00:33:46,829 --> 00:33:47,410
会发生什么

979
00:33:48,490 --> 00:33:50,979
如果我们知道

980
00:33:50,979 --> 00:33:52,538
市场继续上涨

981
00:33:52,538 --> 00:33:55,138
比特币和以太坊却停滞不前

982
00:33:55,138 --> 00:33:56,598
十月到来时

983
00:33:56,598 --> 00:33:58,589
突然遭遇猛烈抛售

984
00:33:58,589 --> 00:34:02,250
持续到十一月甚至深陷十二月

985
00:34:02,250 --> 00:34:02,789
对吧

986
00:34:02,789 --> 00:34:04,390
这种情况下比特币会如何

987
00:34:04,390 --> 00:34:06,589
是否会跌破3万美元

988
00:34:06,589 --> 00:34:07,210
对吧

989
00:34:07,210 --> 00:34:08,809
三万美元左右

990
00:34:08,809 --> 00:34:12,418
如果本周纳斯达克表现强劲

991
00:34:12,418 --> 00:34:14,358
如果走势反转会怎样

992
00:34:14,358 --> 00:34:17,559
这很有趣

993
00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:19,219
因为这种情况并不常见

994
00:34:19,219 --> 00:34:21,318
不会轻易让你获利

995
00:34:21,318 --> 00:34:21,958
你明白的

996
00:34:21,958 --> 00:34:24,679
十倍涨幅四次

997
00:34:24,998 --> 00:34:25,559
你知道的

998
00:34:25,559 --> 00:34:26,858
狗狗币四倍涨幅

999
00:34:26,858 --> 00:34:28,358
相当于八百点

1000
00:34:28,358 --> 00:34:32,458
为什么你要用比特币或者就在那里尝试

1001
00:34:32,458 --> 00:34:33,239
什么

1002
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,429
你的比较分析是什么

1003
00:34:36,429 --> 00:34:38,369
要提出任何观点

1004
00:34:38,369 --> 00:34:41,610
对比特币或以太坊进行预测

1005
00:34:41,610 --> 00:34:44,190
汤米，你没有任何依据可参考

1006
00:34:44,190 --> 00:34:45,250
天啊

1007
00:34:45,250 --> 00:34:47,289
这正是我一直以来的观点

1008
00:34:47,289 --> 00:34:48,050
你做不到

1009
00:34:48,050 --> 00:34:50,829
无法评估比特币或以太坊的价值

1010
00:34:50,829 --> 00:34:51,809
从未有过这样的情况

1011
00:34:51,809 --> 00:34:52,909
永远也不会有这样的情况

1012
00:34:52,909 --> 00:34:54,579
我听过的所有案例

1013
00:34:54,579 --> 00:34:57,579
我听过很多人试图争论这一点

1014
00:34:57,579 --> 00:34:58,300
比如不

1015
00:34:58,300 --> 00:34:59,880
只能基于无依据来评估

1016
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:01,920
完全取决于他人愿意支付的价格

1017
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,278
就这么简单

1018
00:35:03,278 --> 00:35:04,239
没有任何像

1019
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:05,259
不像一家公司

1020
00:35:05,259 --> 00:35:06,119
你可以说

1021
00:35:06,119 --> 00:35:07,518
合理的市盈率

1022
00:35:07,518 --> 00:35:08,998
合理的市销率

1023
00:35:08,998 --> 00:35:10,079
但但自由

1024
00:35:10,079 --> 00:35:10,849
你知道的

1025
00:35:10,849 --> 00:35:11,769
现金流

1026
00:35:11,769 --> 00:35:12,090
等等

1027
00:35:12,090 --> 00:35:12,369
等等

1028
00:35:12,369 --> 00:35:13,510
运行我的DCF模型

1029
00:35:13,510 --> 00:35:15,010
比特币上没有这样的东西

1030
00:35:15,010 --> 00:35:16,010
以太坊对吧

1031
00:35:16,010 --> 00:35:18,510
任何相反的说法都是智商问题

1032
00:35:18,510 --> 00:35:22,599
或许心理或市场情绪之类

1033
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:23,360
是的

1034
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:23,760
嗯

1035
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:24,079
好吧

1036
00:35:24,079 --> 00:35:24,539
确实

1037
00:35:24,539 --> 00:35:25,079
是的

1038
00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:29,079
实际上市场情绪起着巨大作用

1039
00:35:29,079 --> 00:35:31,000
因为它本质上是风险溢价

1040
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:35,800
但有两种被验证的加密货币估值方法

1041
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:36,179
当然

1042
00:35:36,179 --> 00:35:37,639
就是网络使用情况

1043
00:35:37,639 --> 00:35:41,050
钱包和钱包活动仍能解释

1044
00:35:41,050 --> 00:35:43,769
即使现在比特币上涨了87%

1045
00:35:43,769 --> 00:35:47,498
只要更多人使用并进行交易

1046
00:35:47,498 --> 00:35:48,659
比特币的价值应该上涨

1047
00:35:48,659 --> 00:35:49,739
这是网络效应

1048
00:35:49,739 --> 00:35:52,199
第二种是黄金的避险价值

1049
00:35:52,199 --> 00:35:55,800
你知道当黄金达到五千

1050
00:35:56,300 --> 00:35:59,440
如果比特币的网络价值能与黄金相当

1051
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,219
而黄金的稀缺性不如比特币

1052
00:36:01,219 --> 00:36:03,960
那么比特币的价值将约在两千万美元

1053
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,119
所以在我看来

1054
00:36:05,119 --> 00:36:08,079
我认为仍有两种方式看待价值

1055
00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:08,320
而且

1056
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:08,860
当然

1057
00:36:08,860 --> 00:36:10,139
对于以太坊

1058
00:36:10,139 --> 00:36:13,880
每单位代币化资产

1059
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,429
比如代币化美元或其他资产

1060
00:36:16,429 --> 00:36:18,730
已创造了一美元的价值

1061
00:36:18,730 --> 00:36:20,170
对于以太坊代币

1062
00:36:20,170 --> 00:36:23,230
如果你相信华尔街将进行代币化

1063
00:36:23,230 --> 00:36:25,630
以太坊的价格应该大幅上涨

1064
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,300
你知道吧

1065
00:36:29,300 --> 00:36:30,699
否认投资管理

1066
00:36:30,699 --> 00:36:32,500
丹总是很愉快与你交谈

1067
00:36:32,500 --> 00:36:34,059
我首先想听听你的看法

1068
00:36:34,059 --> 00:36:37,079
不一定是具体针对HP财报

1069
00:36:37,079 --> 00:36:42,179
但对HP财报的反应以及我们看到的垂直走势

1070
00:36:42,179 --> 00:36:42,980
嗯

1071
00:36:42,980 --> 00:36:43,940
你的看法是什么

1072
00:36:43,940 --> 00:36:45,670
这是理性的吗

1073
00:36:46,190 --> 00:36:47,030
嗯

1074
00:36:47,030 --> 00:36:48,269
两件事可以同时为真

1075
00:36:48,269 --> 00:36:49,170
在同一时间

1076
00:36:49,170 --> 00:36:50,849
市场可能非理性

1077
00:36:50,849 --> 00:36:52,809
但仍可能继续上涨

1078
00:36:52,809 --> 00:36:56,710
我认为这就是当前应思考的方式

1079
00:36:56,710 --> 00:37:02,940
因为记得半导体行业曾遭受大量空头打压

1080
00:37:02,940 --> 00:37:03,719
我想你知道

1081
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,000
去年三月开始

1082
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,019
人们持有大量看跌期权

1083
00:37:07,019 --> 00:37:08,440
这全是骗局

1084
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:09,119
他说

1085
00:37:09,119 --> 00:37:09,360
哇

1086
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:09,599
哇

1087
00:37:09,599 --> 00:37:09,840
哇

1088
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,559
别急着下结论

1089
00:37:11,559 --> 00:37:13,139
稍等片刻

1090
00:37:13,179 --> 00:37:14,380
我听到人们在讨论

1091
00:37:14,380 --> 00:37:16,059
为英伟达感到尴尬

1092
00:37:16,059 --> 00:37:19,360
甚至追溯到2023年二三月

1093
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:23,150
还记得视频开头的首次大幅上涨

1094
00:37:23,150 --> 00:37:26,269
当时人们就已经提出质疑

1095
00:37:26,269 --> 00:37:28,230
英伟达的营收

1096
00:37:28,230 --> 00:37:29,349
甚至没有增长这么多

1097
00:37:29,349 --> 00:37:31,409
为什么股价会涨这么多呢

1098
00:37:31,409 --> 00:37:34,250
知情者早已知道数据即将飙升

1099
00:37:34,250 --> 00:37:36,179
没错 但人们仍在质疑

1100
00:37:36,179 --> 00:37:40,409
所以你知道这已经持续了好几年的游戏

1101
00:37:40,409 --> 00:37:40,610
现在

1102
00:37:40,610 --> 00:37:41,369
在这个时间节点

1103
00:37:41,369 --> 00:37:44,739
但并不是说我们还处于第一局

1104
00:37:44,739 --> 00:37:45,778
比如人们开始质疑

1105
00:37:45,778 --> 00:37:47,898
他们被质疑了很长时间

1106
00:37:47,898 --> 00:37:50,878
但快进到

1107
00:37:50,878 --> 00:37:53,579
顺便说这是市场最健康的状态

1108
00:37:53,579 --> 00:37:56,219
市场最健康的状态就是人们不断提问

1109
00:37:56,219 --> 00:37:57,780
这是否可持续

1110
00:37:57,780 --> 00:37:59,159
还能持续多久

1111
00:37:59,159 --> 00:38:00,818
这些数据真实吗

1112
00:38:00,818 --> 00:38:02,539
他们的收入来源是什么

1113
00:38:02,539 --> 00:38:07,778
我认为这实际上为强劲反弹奠定了基础

1114
00:38:07,778 --> 00:38:10,340
如果人们只是视而不见

1115
00:38:10,340 --> 00:38:11,380
盲目相信一切

1116
00:38:11,380 --> 00:38:12,760
从不质疑任何事

1117
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:13,659
这就是市场

1118
00:38:13,659 --> 00:38:15,360
你必须关注

1119
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,780
今年1月30日

1120
00:38:17,780 --> 00:38:19,860
当开放爪项目启动时

1121
00:38:19,860 --> 00:38:21,340
正式化了吗

1122
00:38:21,340 --> 00:38:22,880
所以是基因AI

1123
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:28,500
突然代币产量从过去两个月上涨20%

1124
00:38:28,500 --> 00:38:32,179
在接下来两个月飙升至130%以上

1125
00:38:32,179 --> 00:38:35,440
你正处于需求新一波浪潮

1126
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,960
因此这些走势你就会

1127
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,199
这单日真的合理吗

1128
00:38:40,199 --> 00:38:40,559
不

1129
00:38:40,559 --> 00:38:46,250
但考虑到开放爪仅四个月前推出

1130
00:38:46,250 --> 00:38:50,800
企业真正接纳可能需要一年

1131
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:52,599
因此我认为你会看到

1132
00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:55,539
年底前仍有上涨空间

1133
00:38:55,539 --> 00:38:57,670
这正是我们的观点

1134
00:38:58,030 --> 00:38:58,429
丹

1135
00:38:58,429 --> 00:38:59,510
或许某时

1136
00:38:59,510 --> 00:39:01,750
鉴于这些股票涨幅过大

1137
00:39:01,750 --> 00:39:05,380
公司估值倍数大幅提升

1138
00:39:05,380 --> 00:39:10,579
必须判断是否存在结构性长期变化

1139
00:39:10,579 --> 00:39:11,940
而非单纯

1140
00:39:11,940 --> 00:39:15,108
周期性热点阶段

1141
00:39:15,389 --> 00:39:18,048
这取决于你如何定义高估

1142
00:39:18,048 --> 00:39:19,528
如果你认为

1143
00:39:19,528 --> 00:39:22,190
公司营收增长80%

1144
00:39:22,190 --> 00:39:26,818
市盈率26倍是否高估

1145
00:39:26,818 --> 00:39:31,358
尤其对比标普仅12%营收增长

1146
00:39:31,358 --> 00:39:33,518
交易在22倍左右

1147
00:39:33,518 --> 00:39:34,818
显然没错

1148
00:39:34,818 --> 00:39:35,699
一切皆相对

1149
00:39:35,699 --> 00:39:38,199
一切皆相对就像无法

1150
00:39:38,690 --> 00:39:40,769
有时候人们会看一只股票

1151
00:39:40,769 --> 00:39:41,809
这是一个大错误

1152
00:39:41,809 --> 00:39:42,690
很多投资者都会这样做

1153
00:39:42,690 --> 00:39:43,849
而我以前也犯过这个错误

1154
00:39:43,849 --> 00:39:44,750
在我刚开始投资的那几年

1155
00:39:44,750 --> 00:39:45,269
呃

1156
00:39:45,269 --> 00:39:45,980
你知道的

1157
00:39:45,980 --> 00:39:48,079
在市场投资了几年后

1158
00:39:48,079 --> 00:39:51,900
我会看到高价股就拒绝买入

1159
00:39:51,900 --> 00:39:52,889
这太疯狂了

1160
00:39:52,889 --> 00:39:55,769
这只股票交易在50倍市盈率

1161
00:39:55,769 --> 00:39:57,570
这太荒谬了

1162
00:39:57,780 --> 00:39:59,800
其他股票交易在10到15倍

1163
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,300
十七八倍对吧

1164
00:40:02,940 --> 00:40:03,858
重大错误

1165
00:40:03,858 --> 00:40:05,938
你需要关注公司的增长速度

1166
00:40:05,938 --> 00:40:08,759
未来几年该公司增长速度可能达到何种水平

1167
00:40:08,759 --> 00:40:13,228
通过这样做你可以更好地理解合理价格是多少

1168
00:40:13,228 --> 00:40:15,608
这就是one thousand x talks com

1169
00:40:15,608 --> 00:40:17,389
你可以运行你的预测模型

1170
00:40:17,389 --> 00:40:18,509
然后你开始理解

1171
00:40:18,509 --> 00:40:18,889
好的

1172
00:40:18,889 --> 00:40:20,648
如果这只股票交易在50倍市盈率

1173
00:40:20,648 --> 00:40:21,768
我真的在获得绝佳投资机会吗

1174
00:40:21,768 --> 00:40:24,230
因为这只股票可能交易在100倍市盈率

1175
00:40:24,230 --> 00:40:26,550
你可能在这只股票上捡到大便宜

1176
00:40:26,550 --> 00:40:28,110
如果他们拥有能支撑这样的增长

1177
00:40:28,110 --> 00:40:29,710
这样的市盈率是合理的对吧

1178
00:40:29,710 --> 00:40:31,400
同时你也在观察并想

1179
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:31,800
天啊

1180
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,039
他们将在未来几年大幅降低市盈率

1181
00:40:34,039 --> 00:40:34,519
你知道的

1182
00:40:34,519 --> 00:40:36,940
在未来三到四五年内大幅下降

1183
00:40:36,940 --> 00:40:40,679
所以永远不要陷入这种游戏

1184
00:40:40,679 --> 00:40:43,469
同样的情况也适用于低价股

1185
00:40:43,469 --> 00:40:45,588
你可能会看到一只股票市盈率只有7倍

1186
00:40:45,588 --> 00:40:46,028
然后我说

1187
00:40:46,028 --> 00:40:46,628
天啊

1188
00:40:46,628 --> 00:40:47,869
我发现了行业中最划算的交易

1189
00:40:47,869 --> 00:40:48,389
股票市场

1190
00:40:48,389 --> 00:40:50,228
其他股票交易在20倍市盈率以上

1191
00:40:50,228 --> 00:40:51,818
我却发现了一只7倍的

1192
00:40:51,818 --> 00:40:53,798
这并不意味着它就是优质股票

1193
00:40:53,798 --> 00:40:56,000
这并不意味着你找到了绝佳投资

1194
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:57,820
可能意味着他们的业务受到冲击

1195
00:40:57,820 --> 00:40:59,159
收入将会下降

1196
00:40:59,159 --> 00:41:00,920
每股收益也会下降对吧

1197
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:02,159
你可能发现了瑰宝

1198
00:41:02,159 --> 00:41:03,679
但未必如此

1199
00:41:03,679 --> 00:41:04,679
嗯

1200
00:41:04,679 --> 00:41:06,000
这可能是个宝物

1201
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,079
很多人因此错过了是有原因的

1202
00:41:08,079 --> 00:41:10,179
所以也要记住这一点

1203
00:41:10,179 --> 00:41:11,489
嗯，总之

1204
00:41:11,489 --> 00:41:11,769
好的

1205
00:41:11,769 --> 00:41:12,969
让我们继续推进公司

1206
00:41:12,969 --> 00:41:14,889
我指的是英伟达

1207
00:41:14,889 --> 00:41:21,099
我认为两者之间存在明显差异

1208
00:41:21,099 --> 00:41:25,389
像英伟达这样的股票相对于其他公司估值存在差异

1209
00:41:25,389 --> 00:41:26,949
比如赛灵思

1210
00:41:26,949 --> 00:41:28,469
价格可能上涨了一百倍

1211
00:41:28,469 --> 00:41:29,250
收入方面

1212
00:41:29,250 --> 00:41:30,670
这样理解对吗

1213
00:41:30,670 --> 00:41:35,510
但总的来说这就是选股变得

1214
00:41:35,510 --> 00:41:37,010
越来越重要

1215
00:41:37,010 --> 00:41:38,250
未来

1216
00:41:38,250 --> 00:41:40,710
瓶颈不断变化对吧

1217
00:41:40,710 --> 00:41:44,730
三月底时人们开始关注CPU

1218
00:41:44,730 --> 00:41:46,250
当人们开始意识到

1219
00:41:46,250 --> 00:41:48,130
我们曾就此撰文指出

1220
00:41:48,130 --> 00:41:50,269
现在比率正在发生变化

1221
00:41:50,269 --> 00:41:51,869
大家都在谈论CPU

1222
00:41:51,869 --> 00:41:52,670
对吧丹

1223
00:41:52,670 --> 00:41:54,110
我们想在芝加哥展示

1224
00:41:54,110 --> 00:41:55,349
收盘钟声响起

1225
00:41:55,349 --> 00:41:57,309
结束常规交易日

1226
00:41:57,309 --> 00:42:00,289
丽莎·苏至少一年前就提到过

1227
00:42:00,289 --> 00:42:03,449
这才是真正做研究的关键

1228
00:42:03,449 --> 00:42:07,110
这是我从丽莎·苏直接获得的看涨依据

1229
00:42:07,110 --> 00:42:10,039
这也是你公开讨论的内容对吧

1230
00:42:10,039 --> 00:42:11,860
她曾提到

1231
00:42:11,860 --> 00:42:14,500
训练与推理存在区别

1232
00:42:14,500 --> 00:42:18,630
没错，训练最初是主要驱动力

1233
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:20,929
训练这些模型英伟达率先布局

1234
00:42:20,929 --> 00:42:23,000
这是其成功的重要原因

1235
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,219
市值超五万亿美元的巨头

1236
00:42:25,219 --> 00:42:28,449
没错，而AMD在训练领域错失良机

1237
00:42:28,449 --> 00:42:29,989
英伟达迅速行动并占据优势

1238
00:42:29,989 --> 00:42:32,050
并大幅受益于此

1239
00:42:32,050 --> 00:42:34,550
但露西提到推理才是更大的

1240
00:42:34,550 --> 00:42:38,570
长期市场机遇

1241
00:42:38,570 --> 00:42:42,730
没错，她完美阐述了AMD在推理领域的优势

1242
00:42:42,730 --> 00:42:44,730
越深入分析

1243
00:42:44,730 --> 00:42:45,570
就越觉得

1244
00:42:45,570 --> 00:42:45,989
是的

1245
00:42:45,989 --> 00:42:49,590
训练确实关键用于模型训练

1246
00:42:49,590 --> 00:42:51,210
但最大机会

1247
00:42:51,210 --> 00:42:53,210
长期来看不在于训练模型

1248
00:42:53,210 --> 00:42:55,230
而在于实际使用模型

1249
00:42:55,230 --> 00:42:57,739
你继续讲啊陈

1250
00:42:57,739 --> 00:43:00,079
你在使用Anthropic

1251
00:43:00,079 --> 00:43:02,420
你在用Gemini或Grok

1252
00:43:02,420 --> 00:43:04,320
或者这些其他服务比如

1253
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:04,699
你知道的

1254
00:43:04,699 --> 00:43:05,920
并执行所有这些查询

1255
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:07,000
并提出所有这些问题

1256
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,019
并完成所有这些操作，整理所有信息并需要这样做

1257
00:43:10,019 --> 00:43:11,300
我需要这段视频

1258
00:43:11,300 --> 00:43:12,260
我需要这张图片

1259
00:43:12,260 --> 00:43:14,219
我需要这份表格或其他什么

1260
00:43:14,219 --> 00:43:14,900
对吧

1261
00:43:14,900 --> 00:43:17,420
这就是关键所在

1262
00:43:17,420 --> 00:43:19,090
你知道的

1263
00:43:19,090 --> 00:43:19,929
丽莎曾谈到过这个

1264
00:43:19,929 --> 00:43:20,610
很久以前

1265
00:43:20,610 --> 00:43:22,338
如果你在认真听

1266
00:43:22,338 --> 00:43:23,759
至少她当时提到了这一点

1267
00:43:23,759 --> 00:43:24,978
她从不停止

1268
00:43:24,978 --> 00:43:26,938
你随便抛出东西，就像

1269
00:43:26,938 --> 00:43:29,059
空中楼阁

1270
00:43:29,059 --> 00:43:29,440
 blah blah

1271
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:29,880
 blah 不不

1272
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:30,619
不不

1273
00:43:30,619 --> 00:43:32,099
如果她说的是真的

1274
00:43:32,099 --> 00:43:32,639
就是

1275
00:43:32,639 --> 00:43:33,059
就是

1276
00:43:33,059 --> 00:43:33,920
如果有的话

1277
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,579
她在留后手

1278
00:43:35,579 --> 00:43:40,269
听起来你可能成为这些瓶颈股的买家

1279
00:43:40,269 --> 00:43:41,989
你还能在哪里发现价值

1280
00:43:41,989 --> 00:43:45,610
认识到即使这些走势看似不合理

1281
00:43:45,610 --> 00:43:48,519
可能仍有更大的空间

1282
00:43:48,519 --> 00:43:48,960
英伟达

1283
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:49,679
正如我之前所说

1284
00:43:49,679 --> 00:43:50,659
这不是理性行为

1285
00:43:50,659 --> 00:43:51,800
这是我们最大的持仓

1286
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:52,440
毫无疑问

1287
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:53,519
我们继续增持

1288
00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:55,039
但像英特尔或LL

1289
00:43:55,039 --> 00:43:55,639
我说

1290
00:43:56,199 --> 00:43:58,159
我想当时

1291
00:43:58,159 --> 00:43:58,800
是的

1292
00:43:58,800 --> 00:43:59,039
不

1293
00:43:59,039 --> 00:43:59,800
我说英特尔

1294
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:01,539
我们三月底开始分析

1295
00:44:01,539 --> 00:44:04,989
认为会成为这一CPU转向的最大受益者

1296
00:44:04,989 --> 00:44:07,829
但今天显然受挫

1297
00:44:07,829 --> 00:44:09,949
因为大家担心英伟达

1298
00:44:09,949 --> 00:44:11,650
但需求火爆

1299
00:44:11,650 --> 00:44:16,320
因为从八张GPU到一张CPU的转变

1300
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:17,579
突然间随着基因

1301
00:44:17,579 --> 00:44:18,940
你更接近统一

1302
00:44:18,940 --> 00:44:23,489
这在瓶颈位置带来了巨大的数学变化

1303
00:44:23,489 --> 00:44:26,150
告知服务器CPU领导者

1304
00:44:26,150 --> 00:44:27,650
英伟达会获得市场份额吗

1305
00:44:27,650 --> 00:44:28,369
当然会

1306
00:44:28,369 --> 00:44:29,579
他们目前没有份额

1307
00:44:29,579 --> 00:44:32,280
但这意味着英特尔会受损吗

1308
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,139
他们占据多数份额，不会

1309
00:44:34,139 --> 00:44:37,858
可能需要几天时间才能稳定

1310
00:44:37,858 --> 00:44:40,139
但此时我认为

1311
00:44:40,139 --> 00:44:41,938
顺便说一下关于英特尔

1312
00:44:41,938 --> 00:44:44,599
赢得的方式有两种第二种

1313
00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:46,139
即使ARM崛起

1314
00:44:46,139 --> 00:44:47,239
我认为有很大机会

1315
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,059
他们将在今年年底前成为苹果代工厂客户

1316
00:44:51,059 --> 00:44:54,280
英伟达9月投资了50亿美元

1317
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,000
我们不要忘记这一点

1318
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,849
他们将成为这些超大规模客户的代工厂

1319
00:44:59,849 --> 00:45:01,289
对于这些超大规模企业

1320
00:45:01,289 --> 00:45:01,809
别忘了

1321
00:45:01,809 --> 00:45:03,889
他们与谷歌有宣布的合作

1322
00:45:03,889 --> 00:45:04,949
特斯拉

1323
00:45:04,949 --> 00:45:07,398
也宣布在此合作

1324
00:45:07,398 --> 00:45:11,259
所有这些将帮助我们在

1325
00:45:11,259 --> 00:45:13,028
美国获得更稳定的芯片供应

1326
00:45:13,028 --> 00:45:14,989
其中90%来自亚洲

1327
00:45:14,989 --> 00:45:17,469
因此与英特尔也有赢的机会

1328
00:45:17,469 --> 00:45:18,590
这就是我喜欢的原因

1329
00:45:18,590 --> 00:45:20,750
终极股票不是英伟达

1330
00:45:20,750 --> 00:45:21,809
也不是英特尔

1331
00:45:21,809 --> 00:45:22,590
是AMD

1332
00:45:23,630 --> 00:45:27,559
AMD在市场中定位完美

1333
00:45:27,559 --> 00:45:28,940
他们做得很好

1334
00:45:28,940 --> 00:45:36,630
终于追上英伟达，拥有可媲美视频的GPU

1335
00:45:36,630 --> 00:45:41,440
在CPU领域定位远优于英伟达

1336
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,239
再看看英特尔

1337
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:43,460
好吧

1338
00:45:43,460 --> 00:45:46,500
他们在CPU领域仍与AMD相当

1339
00:45:46,500 --> 00:45:47,099
在我看来

1340
00:45:47,099 --> 00:45:47,690
没错

1341
00:45:47,690 --> 00:45:49,789
但GPU方面则不然

1342
00:45:49,789 --> 00:45:53,050
因此AMD是终极股票

1343
00:45:53,050 --> 00:45:57,780
我能理解因为有人提到

1344
00:45:57,780 --> 00:46:02,280
AMD将超越英伟达听起来很荒谬

1345
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,260
AMD超越英伟达

1346
00:46:05,260 --> 00:46:07,949
成为五万亿美元公司

1347
00:46:08,389 --> 00:46:09,969
或许可以实现

1348
00:46:09,969 --> 00:46:11,710
从心理上讲一个是GPU

1349
00:46:11,710 --> 00:46:14,389
业务将在未来几年疯狂增长

1350
00:46:14,389 --> 00:46:14,869
对

1351
00:46:14,869 --> 00:46:15,789
但除此之外

1352
00:46:15,789 --> 00:46:16,500
如果你

1353
00:46:16,500 --> 00:46:18,000
他们是真正能从AI浪潮中获益的最佳公司

1354
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,719
在我看来，CPU公司中最具优势的

1355
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,199
可能也是Lisa Sue的看法

1356
00:46:23,199 --> 00:46:25,969
同样，许多熟悉行业的人

1357
00:46:25,969 --> 00:46:27,949
你知道在这个行业中

1358
00:46:27,949 --> 00:46:32,269
如果考虑未来几年CPU的定价走势

1359
00:46:32,269 --> 00:46:34,840
以及AMD能够掌控的定价权

1360
00:46:35,159 --> 00:46:37,440
我说啊

1361
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:37,960
天啊

1362
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:39,719
确实存在这样的论点

1363
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,119
不过我并不完全认同

1364
00:46:41,119 --> 00:46:41,400
顺便说一句

1365
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:44,460
我不认为AMD会成为五万亿美元级别的公司

1366
00:46:44,460 --> 00:46:46,900
五年内可能超过英伟达

1367
00:46:46,900 --> 00:46:52,989
但可以理解人们为何会这样设想

1368
00:46:52,989 --> 00:46:55,730
五年后AMD可能超越英伟达

1369
00:46:55,730 --> 00:46:58,730
在五万亿美元或十万亿市值的市场

1370
00:46:58,730 --> 00:46:59,519
所以

1371
00:46:59,519 --> 00:47:01,059
但这就是问题所在

1372
00:47:01,059 --> 00:47:04,570
这也是为什么AMD是一只有趣的持有股

1373
00:47:04,570 --> 00:47:05,429
如果你已经持有

1374
00:47:05,429 --> 00:47:06,849
这简直是一只有趣的持有股

1375
00:47:06,849 --> 00:47:07,409
因为你在观察

1376
00:47:07,409 --> 00:47:08,190
你可能会想

1377
00:47:08,190 --> 00:47:09,869
你看到这些机会

1378
00:47:09,869 --> 00:47:12,269
然后开始思考

1379
00:47:12,269 --> 00:47:14,110
这家公司究竟能有多大

1380
00:47:14,110 --> 00:47:15,110
然后开始思考

1381
00:47:15,110 --> 00:47:16,230
能否超越英伟达

1382
00:47:16,230 --> 00:47:18,929
这就是令人兴奋的部分

1383
00:47:18,929 --> 00:47:20,690
这也是为什么AMD股票

1384
00:47:20,690 --> 00:47:23,170
尽管很多人可能不喜欢

1385
00:47:23,170 --> 00:47:24,559
如果他们没有持有这只股票

1386
00:47:24,559 --> 00:47:26,039
这就是它将持续上涨的原因

1387
00:47:26,039 --> 00:47:27,960
没错，这也是我不断提到的

1388
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:28,639
不要感到意外

1389
00:47:28,639 --> 00:47:29,940
如果AMD股价涨到一千美元

1390
00:47:29,940 --> 00:47:31,460
今年或明年

1391
00:47:31,460 --> 00:47:32,500
不要感到意外

1392
00:47:33,579 --> 00:47:38,750
因为它无疑是市场上最令人兴奋的股票

1393
00:47:38,750 --> 00:47:42,010
越来越多的人开始拼凑这幅图景

1394
00:47:42,010 --> 00:47:43,269
没错，好的

1395
00:47:43,269 --> 00:47:43,909
接下来要展示的这只股票

1396
00:47:43,909 --> 00:47:45,510
这就是我们即将展示的DEI

1397
00:47:45,510 --> 00:47:49,570
确实引发了午盘的快速上涨

1398
00:47:49,570 --> 00:47:51,510
仿佛这是一个重大营收机会

1399
00:47:51,510 --> 00:47:52,019
是这样吗

1400
00:47:52,019 --> 00:47:54,599
但我觉得经过所有这些支出后

1401
00:47:54,599 --> 00:47:55,039
我是说

1402
00:47:55,039 --> 00:47:55,820
这确实是一个

1403
00:47:55,820 --> 00:47:58,460
我认为这标志着向正确方向迈出的重要一步

1404
00:47:58,460 --> 00:48:01,860
因为它涉及35亿用户

1405
00:48:01,860 --> 00:48:03,639
你打算如何实现盈利

1406
00:48:03,639 --> 00:48:06,659
我认为他们显然在尝试订阅模式

1407
00:48:06,659 --> 00:48:08,920
现在投资者最想看到的就是这个

1408
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,340
关键是如何将用户基数转化为收益

1409
00:48:12,340 --> 00:48:13,239
这确实

1410
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:14,760
这并非最终步骤

1411
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,300
这只是中间阶段

1412
00:48:16,300 --> 00:48:19,940
随着越来越多AI融入用户群体

1413
00:48:19,940 --> 00:48:21,519
这才是真正的变现途径

1414
00:48:21,519 --> 00:48:25,429
我认为股价尚未完全反映这一点

1415
00:48:25,429 --> 00:48:28,730
我认为未来几年将看到的收入机会

1416
00:48:28,730 --> 00:48:31,590
现在你拥有900亿用户

1417
00:48:31,590 --> 00:48:33,849
我需要处理两件事

1418
00:48:33,849 --> 00:48:34,969
首先是他们正在做的事情

1419
00:48:34,969 --> 00:48:37,739
讨论收入机会这类问题

1420
00:48:37,739 --> 00:48:39,159
这对公司来说意义重大

1421
00:48:39,159 --> 00:48:39,420
没错

1422
00:48:39,420 --> 00:48:40,679
人们可以开始理解

1423
00:48:40,679 --> 00:48:40,980
兄弟

1424
00:48:40,980 --> 00:48:43,719
为什么每年要投入上百亿美元

1425
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:48,280
这样我们在Instagram观看视频会更流畅

1426
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:49,760
或者在Facebook上浏览

1427
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,480
这就是我们如此投入的原因

1428
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,489
或者让广告主获得更好的投资回报

1429
00:48:54,489 --> 00:48:56,980
我们真的需要在这些方面投入上百亿美元

1430
00:48:56,980 --> 00:48:57,260
不

1431
00:48:57,260 --> 00:48:57,719
不不

1432
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:01,440
但若理解这些新的潜在收入机会

1433
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:02,380
所有人都能明白

1434
00:49:02,380 --> 00:49:02,840
好吧

1435
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:04,380
现在我们看清了

1436
00:49:04,380 --> 00:49:05,860
必须解决的问题

1437
00:49:06,860 --> 00:49:08,780
他们需要更清晰地拆分业务

1438
00:49:08,780 --> 00:49:12,398
需要提供更多增长点的细节

1439
00:49:12,398 --> 00:49:13,719
增长速度如何

1440
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:14,898
这类信息

1441
00:49:14,898 --> 00:49:19,518
这样投资者能更好理解机会所在

1442
00:49:20,530 --> 00:49:23,110
假设他们宣布新业务

1443
00:49:23,110 --> 00:49:24,590
他们正在进入正确领域

1444
00:49:24,590 --> 00:49:25,938
这是新收入流

1445
00:49:25,938 --> 00:49:27,119
比如云业务

1446
00:49:27,119 --> 00:49:28,099
例如

1447
00:49:28,099 --> 00:49:28,298
对

1448
00:49:28,298 --> 00:49:29,518
假设他们将朝这个方向发展

1449
00:49:29,518 --> 00:49:31,159
无论哪个方向

1450
00:49:31,159 --> 00:49:32,518
拆分这些数据

1451
00:49:32,518 --> 00:49:33,739
这样我们就能看到它们

1452
00:49:33,739 --> 00:49:35,280
这会让人们非常兴奋

1453
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:39,980
因为你会看到核心业务仍在以非常可观的速度增长

1454
00:49:39,980 --> 00:49:41,139
但随后他们会看到

1455
00:49:41,139 --> 00:49:41,639
天啊

1456
00:49:41,639 --> 00:49:46,179
他们有了这项新业务，季度环比增长一千%

1457
00:49:46,179 --> 00:49:48,599
没错，这非常令人兴奋

1458
00:49:48,599 --> 00:49:51,550
在我看来他们需要做更多拆分

1459
00:49:51,550 --> 00:49:52,650
随着他们深入更多领域

1460
00:49:52,650 --> 00:49:53,230
你知道的

1461
00:49:53,230 --> 00:49:55,159
来自不同机会的收入来源

1462
00:49:55,159 --> 00:49:56,280
超越预期

1463
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:56,840
你提到的

1464
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:57,960
投资者想要看到这一点

1465
00:49:57,960 --> 00:49:58,199
做

1466
00:49:58,199 --> 00:49:59,039
用户也想看到

1467
00:49:59,039 --> 00:49:59,159
是

1468
00:49:59,159 --> 00:50:00,239
他们愿意为此付费吗

1469
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:01,940
我们只是在讨论似乎

1470
00:50:01,940 --> 00:50:03,608
根据这里的部分报告

1471
00:50:03,608 --> 00:50:07,248
每月三到四美元的订阅费用于Instagram

1472
00:50:08,429 --> 00:50:08,708
是的

1473
00:50:08,708 --> 00:50:10,768
一旦开始获得采用

1474
00:50:10,768 --> 00:50:11,989
现在开始

1475
00:50:11,989 --> 00:50:14,230
看看可能高达三

1476
00:50:14,230 --> 00:50:15,309
四个百分点的收入

1477
00:50:15,309 --> 00:50:16,409
然后继续

1478
00:50:16,409 --> 00:50:17,989
随着采用率提升

1479
00:50:17,989 --> 00:50:21,230
我认为投资者尚未充分考虑这一点

1480
00:50:21,230 --> 00:50:23,690
他们打算做这样的事情

1481
00:50:23,690 --> 00:50:25,489
从时间角度来看

1482
00:50:25,489 --> 00:50:26,929
可能提前到来

1483
00:50:26,929 --> 00:50:30,909
这体现了他们推出的能力信心

1484
00:50:30,909 --> 00:50:33,409
这将成为持续的叙事

1485
00:50:33,409 --> 00:50:34,809
无论是微软

1486
00:50:34,809 --> 00:50:35,969
还是Matter

1487
00:50:35,969 --> 00:50:37,190
或是苹果

1488
00:50:37,190 --> 00:50:39,230
如何实现变现

1489
00:50:39,230 --> 00:50:41,989
AI芯片公司展示了他们的变现方式

1490
00:50:41,989 --> 00:50:42,849
就像软件一样

1491
00:50:42,849 --> 00:50:43,110
没错

1492
00:50:43,110 --> 00:50:43,710
但你在谈论

1493
00:50:43,710 --> 00:50:44,150
你没事吧

1494
00:50:44,150 --> 00:50:44,630
这很有趣

1495
00:50:44,630 --> 00:50:45,469
你怎么说的

1496
00:50:45,469 --> 00:50:45,690
它

1497
00:50:45,690 --> 00:50:50,199
这反映了他们自身的信心

1498
00:50:50,199 --> 00:50:55,460
有些人可能会认为这表明他们

1499
00:50:55,460 --> 00:50:56,300
你知道吗

1500
00:50:56,300 --> 00:50:59,039
在游戏后期才加入

1501
00:50:59,039 --> 00:51:00,199
他们如何实现盈利

1502
00:51:00,199 --> 00:51:03,039
在核心广告业务之外的AI领域

1503
00:51:03,039 --> 00:51:08,630
就是把各种东西往墙上扔看什么能粘住

1504
00:51:08,630 --> 00:51:09,530
扎克伯格

1505
00:51:09,530 --> 00:51:11,730
显然在股东大会上也提到

1506
00:51:11,730 --> 00:51:14,429
或者至少为云业务开了门

1507
00:51:14,429 --> 00:51:15,969
这算不是大胆计划

1508
00:51:15,969 --> 00:51:17,000
还是真实可行

1509
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:20,619
但我觉得云业务可能更像大胆尝试

1510
00:51:20,619 --> 00:51:21,159
但在我看来

1511
00:51:21,159 --> 00:51:21,880
这没问题

1512
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:26,150
如何逐步向广告商多元化

1513
00:51:26,150 --> 00:51:27,269
那些表现良好的广告商

1514
00:51:27,269 --> 00:51:29,778
这将继续是核心收入

1515
00:51:29,778 --> 00:51:31,498
但看看他们在做什么

1516
00:51:31,498 --> 00:51:33,579
将继续推动多元化

1517
00:51:33,579 --> 00:51:35,199
我认为这是积极的

1518
00:51:35,199 --> 00:51:39,309
因为他们的用户基数无人能及

1519
00:51:39,309 --> 00:51:41,068
随着他们实现变现

1520
00:51:41,068 --> 00:51:43,188
你知道我们看好的关键在于

1521
00:51:43,188 --> 00:51:45,188
我们目前处于约九百小时

1522
00:51:45,188 --> 00:51:46,509
最终你知道什么

1523
00:51:46,509 --> 00:51:47,619
可能还有更高空间

1524
00:51:47,619 --> 00:51:50,860
这是扎克伯格和Meta的关键机遇

1525
00:51:50,860 --> 00:51:54,260
在上季度之后迈出正确一步

1526
00:51:54,260 --> 00:51:56,019
当时所有焦点都在资本支出

1527
00:51:56,019 --> 00:51:59,019
显然那场会议像狗吃了作业

1528
00:51:59,019 --> 00:51:59,960
但让我问你

1529
00:51:59,960 --> 00:52:00,159
因为

1530
00:52:00,159 --> 00:52:00,860
在你刚才谈到

1531
00:52:00,860 --> 00:52:01,719
我在查看股价

1532
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:02,679
已经下跌近

1533
00:52:02,679 --> 00:52:03,079
你知道的

1534
00:52:03,079 --> 00:52:04,440
这是一次有趣的收购

1535
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:08,980
Meta潜在的收购目标

1536
00:52:08,980 --> 00:52:13,679
这只股票近期大幅下跌

1537
00:52:13,679 --> 00:52:17,039
Meta收购Intuitive会很有趣

1538
00:52:17,039 --> 00:52:18,800
他们很久没收购公司了

1539
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,309
现在或许能通过政府审批

1540
00:52:21,309 --> 00:52:21,869
嗯

1541
00:52:21,869 --> 00:52:23,210
整个反垄断

1542
00:52:23,210 --> 00:52:24,010
你知道的

1543
00:52:24,010 --> 00:52:25,510
公司收购其他公司

1544
00:52:25,510 --> 00:52:26,389
你知道的

1545
00:52:26,389 --> 00:52:27,938
这种情况已结束

1546
00:52:30,340 --> 00:52:32,139
我认为这会非常明智

1547
00:52:32,139 --> 00:52:34,099
如果Meta尝试收购

1548
00:52:34,099 --> 00:52:36,489
仔细想想Meta

1549
00:52:36,489 --> 00:52:40,619
它们是企业需要投放广告的地方

1550
00:52:40,619 --> 00:52:42,900
尤其是中小型企业

1551
00:52:42,900 --> 00:52:45,920
当然也有大型企业在此进行广告投放

1552
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,239
但仔细想想中小企业的处境

1553
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:49,059
中型企业

1554
00:52:50,099 --> 00:52:51,360
确实如此对吧

1555
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:55,309
如果能够收购进来

1556
00:52:55,309 --> 00:52:59,909
并与广告业务无缝整合

1557
00:52:59,909 --> 00:53:04,829
他们就能更轻松地看到哪些企业带来营收

1558
00:53:04,829 --> 00:53:05,750
以及所有这类情况

1559
00:53:05,750 --> 00:53:09,170
因为企业的QuickBooks业务和TurboTax业务

1560
00:53:09,170 --> 00:53:12,250
对吧，这里有很多可能性

1561
00:53:12,250 --> 00:53:17,059
如果这些公司已经在使用你们作为广告平台

1562
00:53:17,059 --> 00:53:21,420
同时也在通过该平台处理所有账务

1563
00:53:21,420 --> 00:53:25,780
为何不满足他们的云需求呢

1564
00:53:25,780 --> 00:53:26,619
没错

1565
00:53:26,619 --> 00:53:29,789
所以他们无需额外操作

1566
00:53:29,789 --> 00:53:31,409
但我觉得这可能很有趣

1567
00:53:31,409 --> 00:53:35,250
我只是在思考如何构建整个

1568
00:53:35,250 --> 00:53:36,369
整个系统

1569
00:53:36,369 --> 00:53:37,130
我真是头疼

1570
00:53:37,130 --> 00:53:38,630
这可能达到四成

1571
00:53:38,630 --> 00:53:41,099
截至今年

1572
00:53:41,099 --> 00:53:44,440
你认为他们在这个大楼里承受多大压力

1573
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:50,248
而扎克伯格自己承受多大压力

1574
00:53:50,248 --> 00:53:51,509
要让市场感到震撼

1575
00:53:51,509 --> 00:53:53,009
让投资者重拾信心

1576
00:53:53,009 --> 00:53:55,789
除了微软

1577
00:53:55,789 --> 00:53:58,360
也在下跌

1578
00:53:58,360 --> 00:53:59,619
同样如此

1579
00:53:59,619 --> 00:54:01,309
今年以来

1580
00:54:01,670 --> 00:54:04,349
整个市场的情况

1581
00:54:04,349 --> 00:54:06,409
市值现在是880亿美元

1582
00:54:06,409 --> 00:54:13,768
扎克伯格或许能以120亿到140亿的价格收购

1583
00:54:13,768 --> 00:54:14,748
但这并不夸张

1584
00:54:14,748 --> 00:54:15,989
考虑到Meta

1585
00:54:15,989 --> 00:54:21,250
今年可能将投入高达1400亿美元在CapX等项目

1586
00:54:21,250 --> 00:54:25,170
而Intuit的业务立即呈现惊人盈利

1587
00:54:25,170 --> 00:54:26,570
这就是Intuit的优势

1588
00:54:26,570 --> 00:54:27,090
不像

1589
00:54:27,090 --> 00:54:28,349
这家公司

1590
00:54:28,349 --> 00:54:29,369
你知道的

1591
00:54:29,369 --> 00:54:29,750
嗯

1592
00:54:29,750 --> 00:54:30,550
他们何时能盈利

1593
00:54:30,550 --> 00:54:31,630
就像Intuit

1594
00:54:31,630 --> 00:54:37,840
Intuit今年可能实现80亿至100亿美元净利润

1595
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:38,880
大概这个水平

1596
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:40,809
或在未来一年半

1597
00:54:40,809 --> 00:54:41,750
可能会带来

1598
00:54:41,750 --> 00:54:45,630
我估计未来一年或两年净利润在80亿至100亿美元

1599
00:54:45,630 --> 00:54:47,130
这不是一个小数目

1600
00:54:47,130 --> 00:54:49,090
所以你知道的

1601
00:54:49,090 --> 00:54:50,789
即使没有贬损的情况

1602
00:54:50,789 --> 00:54:54,260
大概可以在十年内收回这笔支出

1603
00:54:54,260 --> 00:54:54,920
或者说

1604
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:55,860
你知道他们会

1605
00:54:55,860 --> 00:54:58,619
短期内将继续增加净收入

1606
00:54:58,619 --> 00:54:59,639
至少目前是这样

1607
00:54:59,639 --> 00:55:01,119
但关键在于整合过程

1608
00:55:01,119 --> 00:55:02,320
以及这可能带来的影响

1609
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:04,039
如果再加上云业务部分

1610
00:55:04,039 --> 00:55:04,860
这很引人注目

1611
00:55:04,860 --> 00:55:05,159
就像

1612
00:55:05,159 --> 00:55:06,528
这是一个不错的叙事故事

1613
00:55:06,528 --> 00:55:06,969
是的

1614
00:55:06,969 --> 00:55:10,648
这些外部压力确实在积聚

1615
00:55:10,648 --> 00:55:16,650
从猫背公司的视角看，他们已花费1210亿至130亿

1616
00:55:16,650 --> 00:55:18,150
现在需要展示成果

1617
00:55:18,150 --> 00:55:21,989
我认为警钟是在最近财报电话会上敲响的

1618
00:55:21,989 --> 00:55:24,090
与亚马逊相比

1619
00:55:24,090 --> 00:55:25,869
还有来自Meta的其他公司

1620
00:55:25,869 --> 00:55:26,690
这基本上被

1621
00:55:26,690 --> 00:55:28,980
投资者打入了冷宫

1622
00:55:28,980 --> 00:55:32,059
必须在未来两到三个季度展现进展

1623
00:55:32,059 --> 00:55:32,900
这只股票

1624
00:55:32,900 --> 00:55:34,778
要么在750到800之间

1625
00:55:34,778 --> 00:55:36,099
或者保持现状

1626
00:55:36,099 --> 00:55:37,219
或者更低的关键点

1627
00:55:37,219 --> 00:55:39,119
这实际上是一个关键转折点

1628
00:55:39,119 --> 00:55:39,938
在我看来

1629
00:55:39,938 --> 00:55:40,699
从Meta的角度

1630
00:55:40,699 --> 00:55:42,750
但这是正确的方向

1631
00:55:42,750 --> 00:55:45,050
就他们不断面临的角色而言

1632
00:55:45,050 --> 00:55:46,050
听着

1633
00:55:46,050 --> 00:55:49,289
如果你想持有Meta股票

1634
00:55:49,650 --> 00:55:51,170
这就是这只股票的表现

1635
00:55:51,170 --> 00:55:53,429
股价将飙升

1636
00:55:53,429 --> 00:55:54,869
股价可能翻倍甚至三倍

1637
00:55:54,869 --> 00:55:55,610
四倍增长

1638
00:55:55,610 --> 00:55:56,250
类似这样的

1639
00:55:56,250 --> 00:55:58,389
然后经历一年

1640
00:55:58,389 --> 00:55:58,949
两年

1641
00:55:58,949 --> 00:55:59,989
有时三年

1642
00:55:59,989 --> 00:56:04,030
但通常是一到两年的低迷期

1643
00:56:04,030 --> 00:56:05,809
历史上多次发生过

1644
00:56:05,809 --> 00:56:09,039
而我们正处于Meta的这一阶段

1645
00:56:09,039 --> 00:56:11,719
一旦度过这个阶段

1646
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:13,760
这个阶段可能持续另一年

1647
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:15,059
可能持续十八个月

1648
00:56:15,059 --> 00:56:16,880
拭目以待，最终会走出来

1649
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:18,429
很快就像我们即将看到的

1650
00:56:19,550 --> 00:56:20,789
但一旦它发布

1651
00:56:20,789 --> 00:56:22,690
这将引发巨大波动

1652
00:56:22,690 --> 00:56:23,150
就像你会

1653
00:56:23,150 --> 00:56:25,230
你会看到股票出现双倍上涨

1654
00:56:25,230 --> 00:56:26,829
快速进入禁区

1655
00:56:26,829 --> 00:56:29,960
你知道我说的吧，这不仅仅是在上个季度之后

1656
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,559
甚至可以追溯到两个季度前

1657
00:56:31,559 --> 00:56:34,960
他们之前曾因重大处罚进入禁区

1658
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:36,400
他们似乎总逃不出禁区

1659
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:37,860
他们如何才能不进禁区呢

1660
00:56:37,860 --> 00:56:38,699
而在我看来

1661
00:56:38,699 --> 00:56:40,440
这就是泥潭困境

1662
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:45,449
因为他们试图在河流中调转货轮

1663
00:56:45,449 --> 00:56:48,909
我意思是他们试图进行重大转型

1664
00:56:48,909 --> 00:56:51,980
而投资者显然密切关注每一步

1665
00:56:51,980 --> 00:56:54,619
当我们谈论超算或芯片公司时

1666
00:56:54,619 --> 00:56:58,079
这些公司将成为受益者

1667
00:56:58,079 --> 00:57:02,860
AI领域近期表现强劲，几周后看微软

1668
00:57:02,860 --> 00:57:03,679
说到

1669
00:57:03,679 --> 00:57:05,079
你知道这仍属有罪推定

1670
00:57:05,079 --> 00:57:06,260
直到证明清白为止

1671
00:57:06,260 --> 00:57:08,318
这些就是当前焦点

1672
00:57:08,318 --> 00:57:09,838
他们现在需要证明

1673
00:57:09,838 --> 00:57:11,358
这不仅仅是空谈

1674
00:57:11,358 --> 00:57:12,639
而是实际行动

1675
00:57:12,639 --> 00:57:13,099
快点

1676
00:57:13,099 --> 00:57:15,318
苹果创历史新高

1677
00:57:15,318 --> 00:57:17,889
你刚才提到的WDC表现如何

1678
00:57:17,889 --> 00:57:19,228
所以这只股票在上涨

1679
00:57:19,228 --> 00:57:20,989
现在面临多大压力

1680
00:57:20,989 --> 00:57:21,628
嗯

1681
00:57:21,628 --> 00:57:24,289
今晚Salesforce发布财报

1682
00:57:24,289 --> 00:57:26,960
从压力程度来看

1683
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:27,400
好的

1684
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,360
我们已经完成了Salesforce财报分析

1685
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:30,539
但嗯

1686
00:57:30,860 --> 00:57:34,539
Meta的另一个潜在投资机会

1687
00:57:34,539 --> 00:57:35,599
我不太看好这个

1688
00:57:35,599 --> 00:57:37,679
但他们也可能收购PayPal

1689
00:57:37,679 --> 00:57:40,949
显然许多小企业使用PayPal

1690
00:57:40,949 --> 00:57:44,119
但在我看来这是关键一步

1691
00:57:44,119 --> 00:57:45,119
如果我是扎克伯格

1692
00:57:45,119 --> 00:57:46,099
我会尝试收购他们

1693
00:57:46,099 --> 00:57:47,820
这里能创造奇迹

1694
00:57:47,820 --> 00:57:49,500
感谢大家一如既往的支持

1695
00:57:49,500 --> 00:57:52,039
希望你们喜欢今天的近一小时视频

1696
00:57:52,039 --> 00:57:53,068
这真是场硬仗

1697
00:57:53,068 --> 00:57:54,188
欢迎来到我的办公室

1698
00:57:54,188 --> 00:57:55,309
感谢你们的陪伴

1699
00:57:55,309 --> 00:57:56,389
我们点燃了蜡烛

1700
00:57:56,389 --> 00:57:56,860
好的

1701
00:57:56,860 --> 00:57:58,820
如果你想加入我的私密群组

1702
00:57:58,820 --> 00:58:00,980
想要提升你的投资水平

1703
00:58:00,980 --> 00:58:02,679
达到远高于当前的层次

1704
00:58:02,679 --> 00:58:05,028
想要获得可能成为股票市场大师课程的权限

1705
00:58:05,028 --> 00:58:06,208
百万富翁指南

1706
00:58:06,208 --> 00:58:06,969
股票期权

1707
00:58:06,969 --> 00:58:07,748
精通课程

1708
00:58:07,748 --> 00:58:09,628
想要获得我的股息投资精通课程权限

1709
00:58:09,628 --> 00:58:11,548
想要获得我的财务报表课程权限

1710
00:58:11,548 --> 00:58:12,519
精通课程

1711
00:58:12,519 --> 00:58:13,900
想要我的估值分析

1712
00:58:13,900 --> 00:58:14,519
精通课程

1713
00:58:14,519 --> 00:58:16,119
你知道是否获得好价还是被坑了

1714
00:58:16,119 --> 00:58:16,960
然后你买入股票

1715
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,320
想要访问私密Discord

1716
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:18,639
聊天

1717
00:58:18,639 --> 00:58:19,679
独家每周视频

1718
00:58:19,679 --> 00:58:21,500
我刚录制了私密群组的内容啊

1719
00:58:21,500 --> 00:58:23,079
今天有独家视频

1720
00:58:23,079 --> 00:58:24,800
想要获取所有优质资源

1721
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:25,760
获取我正在操作的策略

1722
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:28,278
还将发送你的钢制会员卡

1723
00:58:28,278 --> 00:58:31,818
这将是下方置顶的评论，请再次注意

1724
00:58:31,818 --> 00:58:34,219
我们将很快关闭新成员加入通道

1725
00:58:34,219 --> 00:58:36,219
如果你想加入其中

1726
00:58:36,219 --> 00:58:37,179
尽快加入

1727
00:58:37,179 --> 00:58:39,420
我们还会寄送你的礼包给你

1728
00:58:39,420 --> 00:58:40,780
我不能透露具体内容 好吧

1729
00:58:40,780 --> 00:58:41,719
大家一如既往地喜欢

1730
00:58:41,719 --> 00:58:43,000
祝大家有美好的一天

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