BV1D8PbzFEU8 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,319 大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频 2 00:00:02,319 --> 00:00:03,940 今天真是个血腥星期五 3 00:00:03,940 --> 00:00:05,299 这一周非常忙碌 4 00:00:05,299 --> 00:00:08,099 不过这一年市场确实动荡不安 5 00:00:08,099 --> 00:00:09,699 波动率很高 6 00:00:09,699 --> 00:00:11,160 但就在今天星期五 7 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:14,699 我们有一些经济数据出炉了，猜猜看 8 00:00:14,699 --> 00:00:17,059 就像每个月的情况一样 9 00:00:17,059 --> 00:00:18,820 无论是正面还是负面 10 00:00:18,820 --> 00:00:22,429 这些数据远未达到 11 00:00:22,429 --> 00:00:24,289 市场专家 12 00:00:24,289 --> 00:00:24,969 那些我不认识的 13 00:00:24,969 --> 00:00:26,390 制定预期的人 14 00:00:26,390 --> 00:00:28,750 但这些数据远不及预期 15 00:00:28,750 --> 00:00:32,189 它们甚至从未接近预期 16 00:00:32,189 --> 00:00:34,119 不知多久以来 17 00:00:34,119 --> 00:00:37,159 当然我们还有1月的数据修正 18 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,539 还有12月的数据修正 19 00:00:39,859 --> 00:00:43,549 所以特定日期公布的数据 20 00:00:43,549 --> 00:00:45,109 需谨慎看待 21 00:00:45,109 --> 00:00:47,770 因为很可能一个月后 22 00:00:47,770 --> 00:00:48,729 两个月后 23 00:00:48,729 --> 00:00:51,889 这些数字会大不相同 24 00:00:51,889 --> 00:00:53,548 无论是好是坏 25 00:00:53,548 --> 00:00:54,628 对我来说都没关系 26 00:00:54,628 --> 00:00:56,969 这些事情根本说不通 27 00:00:56,969 --> 00:00:59,268 你们怎么总是这么错 28 00:00:59,268 --> 00:01:02,969 反复出现毫无道理 29 00:01:02,969 --> 00:01:04,030 我们将讨论 30 00:01:04,030 --> 00:01:06,189 还有油价形势 31 00:01:06,189 --> 00:01:06,849 以及所有这些 32 00:01:06,849 --> 00:01:08,310 都在这个视频里 33 00:01:08,310 --> 00:01:12,260 当然我们也会分析几只具体股票 34 00:01:12,260 --> 00:01:14,640 这些一如既往极具吸引力 35 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,430 或许有些稍逊一筹 36 00:01:17,430 --> 00:01:20,090 现在看热力图 37 00:01:20,090 --> 00:01:22,790 整体呈现红色 38 00:01:22,790 --> 00:01:25,260 但有些个股是绿色 39 00:01:25,260 --> 00:01:26,819 非常意外或可能不意外 40 00:01:26,819 --> 00:01:28,299 但博通仍保持绿色 41 00:01:28,299 --> 00:01:30,260 在强劲财报后 42 00:01:30,260 --> 00:01:34,219 周三Knight Marvell大幅上涨 43 00:01:34,219 --> 00:01:36,760 他们在周四收盘后公布财报 44 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,120 我认为涨了约17% 45 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,420 Costco也公布了上涨1.6% 46 00:01:41,420 --> 00:01:42,060 6%涨幅 47 00:01:42,060 --> 00:01:44,900 再看周四的软件股 48 00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:46,760 软件股已是绿色 49 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:52,530 我们提到软件板块可能已开始轮动 50 00:01:52,530 --> 00:01:53,909 其中部分个股上涨 51 00:01:53,909 --> 00:01:55,150 其中一些是平的 52 00:01:55,150 --> 00:01:58,759 但很少有深跌的 53 00:01:58,759 --> 00:02:00,319 非常有趣对吧 54 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:03,778 我们现在看到的非常非常有趣的现象 55 00:02:03,778 --> 00:02:04,478 这里剩下的所有内容 56 00:02:04,478 --> 00:02:06,879 你可以清楚看到深跌的情况 57 00:02:06,879 --> 00:02:08,639 尤其是金融板块 58 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,069 为什么会这样呢 59 00:02:10,069 --> 00:02:13,310 失业率又小幅上升 60 00:02:13,310 --> 00:02:14,270 就业岗位流失 61 00:02:14,270 --> 00:02:15,689 可能不会降息 62 00:02:15,689 --> 00:02:16,909 或许会降息 63 00:02:16,909 --> 00:02:17,590 我们还不确定 64 00:02:17,590 --> 00:02:19,860 因为我们正处于极其困难的 65 00:02:19,860 --> 00:02:22,439 我想这就是当前的场景 66 00:02:22,439 --> 00:02:28,758 在我看来，油价比就业岗位流失更容易调整 67 00:02:28,758 --> 00:02:32,580 下周油价可能会迅速下跌 68 00:02:32,580 --> 00:02:35,939 如果伊朗局势突然发生变化 69 00:02:35,939 --> 00:02:39,580 一条新闻头条就能让油价下跌 70 00:02:39,580 --> 00:02:41,909 假设就业岗位流失 71 00:02:41,909 --> 00:02:44,830 没有任何头条能弥补就业岗位流失 72 00:02:44,830 --> 00:02:46,770 当然这也是你需要了解的 73 00:02:46,770 --> 00:02:50,938 如果你现在考虑买入埃克森美孚、雪佛龙 74 00:02:50,938 --> 00:02:52,079 这类股票 75 00:02:52,079 --> 00:02:52,498 是的 76 00:02:52,498 --> 00:02:55,758 这些股票今年以来上涨了15%到25%左右 77 00:02:55,758 --> 00:02:57,729 可能是一年至今的表现 78 00:02:58,009 --> 00:03:00,490 但你可能已经错过时机 79 00:03:00,490 --> 00:03:02,770 可能不仅仅因为今天油价上涨 80 00:03:02,770 --> 00:03:05,530 并不意味着未来两个月油价会上涨 81 00:03:05,530 --> 00:03:06,330 一个月后 82 00:03:06,330 --> 00:03:07,150 三个月后 83 00:03:07,150 --> 00:03:08,409 可能会 84 00:03:08,409 --> 00:03:10,810 也可能不会，这些谈判 85 00:03:10,810 --> 00:03:11,469 当然 86 00:03:11,469 --> 00:03:14,180 提前上涨以应对年度预期 87 00:03:14,180 --> 00:03:16,209 油价将会上涨 88 00:03:16,209 --> 00:03:19,368 可能还会持续上涨更久 89 00:03:19,368 --> 00:03:20,729 同样适用于国防板块 90 00:03:20,729 --> 00:03:22,050 尽管国防类股票 91 00:03:22,050 --> 00:03:23,409 这些股票目前 92 00:03:23,409 --> 00:03:24,210 我认为在周一 93 00:03:24,210 --> 00:03:25,150 或者如此是的 94 00:03:25,150 --> 00:03:25,889 它们大幅上涨 95 00:03:25,889 --> 00:03:30,650 但此后要么持平或小幅回落 96 00:03:30,650 --> 00:03:32,990 记住市场总是前瞻性的 97 00:03:32,990 --> 00:03:36,189 现在它传递了几个信号 98 00:03:36,189 --> 00:03:38,419 如果你喜欢这类视频 99 00:03:38,419 --> 00:03:39,539 点击所有按钮 100 00:03:39,539 --> 00:03:40,560 我们非常感谢 101 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:41,780 如果你们能进一步支持我 102 00:03:41,780 --> 00:03:43,520 请查看描述下方的链接 103 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,250 并在置顶评论中推荐十大最佳股票 104 00:03:46,250 --> 00:03:48,150 或前往full.com访问slash couch 105 00:03:48,150 --> 00:03:48,650 投资者 106 00:03:48,650 --> 00:03:49,959 非常感谢 107 00:03:49,959 --> 00:03:50,718 好的 108 00:03:50,718 --> 00:03:52,938 首先我们来看主要数据 109 00:03:52,938 --> 00:03:54,479 非农就业数据 110 00:03:54,479 --> 00:03:56,539 减少92000个 111 00:03:56,539 --> 00:03:59,560 二月经济直接失去就业岗位 112 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,860 对比市场预期数据 113 00:04:01,860 --> 00:04:05,180 预计新增5万至5.9万个 114 00:04:05,180 --> 00:04:08,180 这又是怎么回事 115 00:04:08,180 --> 00:04:10,599 为何差距如此巨大 116 00:04:10,599 --> 00:04:12,539 结果并非达到 117 00:04:12,539 --> 00:04:12,840 哦 118 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,560 仅新增4万个 119 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,279 或为零增长 120 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:17,579 在极端情况下 121 00:04:17,579 --> 00:04:17,920 不 122 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,459 实际减少92000个 123 00:04:20,459 --> 00:04:24,720 市场预期为正5万至5.9万 124 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,100 非农数据异常低迷 125 00:04:27,100 --> 00:04:29,139 这是近期首次负增长 126 00:04:29,139 --> 00:04:32,120 意味着失业率上升0.4个百分点 127 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:32,980 升至4.4% 128 00:04:32,980 --> 00:04:34,060 较一月的4.3% 129 00:04:34,060 --> 00:04:35,100 环比上升0.1个百分点 130 00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:36,720 记得在直播中 131 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:41,300 昨日或两天前有人询问沙发与宏观环境 132 00:04:41,300 --> 00:04:43,889 以及可能面临的各种挑战 133 00:04:43,889 --> 00:04:44,610 好的 134 00:04:44,610 --> 00:04:46,550 但目前情况 135 00:04:46,550 --> 00:04:47,329 5% 136 00:04:47,329 --> 00:04:51,500 失业率在最坏情景下仍远未达此 137 00:04:51,500 --> 00:04:52,920 目前有700万 138 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,269 失业人口达600万 139 00:04:55,269 --> 00:04:57,350 修订数据同样存在 140 00:04:57,350 --> 00:04:58,290 差距显著 141 00:04:58,290 --> 00:04:59,930 2025年12月 142 00:04:59,930 --> 00:05:05,470 修正为增4.8万至减1.7万 143 00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,658 2026年1月修正幅度巨大 144 00:05:09,658 --> 00:05:14,358 从增13万修正为减12.6万 145 00:05:14,358 --> 00:05:17,500 此次修正结果令人惊喜 146 00:05:17,500 --> 00:05:18,560 但同样 147 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:24,470 实际数据与预期相差悬殊 148 00:05:24,470 --> 00:05:26,709 若综合修订数据 149 00:05:26,709 --> 00:05:28,350 总计减少6.9万个 150 00:05:28,350 --> 00:05:28,990 漂亮的数据 151 00:05:28,990 --> 00:05:29,430 我知道 152 00:05:29,430 --> 00:05:30,089 哈哈哈 153 00:05:30,089 --> 00:05:32,379 与上月相比已消失的部分 154 00:05:32,379 --> 00:05:34,680 2025年年度基准修订 155 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:39,680 全年就业岗位修正下调89.8万 156 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:40,459 2025年 157 00:05:40,459 --> 00:05:44,759 就业增长从逾58.4万锐减 158 00:05:44,759 --> 00:05:48,899 仅剩18.1万再次 159 00:05:48,899 --> 00:05:52,100 我认为无论数据来源何处 160 00:05:52,100 --> 00:05:55,639 他们亟需重大升级 161 00:05:55,639 --> 00:05:58,879 所以我现在要移除自己 162 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:02,370 这些变化来自哪些行业 163 00:06:02,370 --> 00:06:02,790 医疗保健 164 00:06:02,790 --> 00:06:03,790 联邦政府 165 00:06:03,790 --> 00:06:05,430 信息运输 166 00:06:05,430 --> 00:06:06,589 社会援助 167 00:06:06,589 --> 00:06:07,250 建筑 168 00:06:07,250 --> 00:06:07,889 制造业 169 00:06:07,889 --> 00:06:08,689 零售 170 00:06:08,689 --> 00:06:09,569 休闲 171 00:06:09,569 --> 00:06:13,189 这基本上是二月的变动 172 00:06:13,189 --> 00:06:16,790 关于二月政府部分的解释 173 00:06:16,790 --> 00:06:19,529 现已下降33万 174 00:06:19,529 --> 00:06:22,769 从2024年10月的峰值 175 00:06:22,769 --> 00:06:24,269 如果你想截图 176 00:06:24,269 --> 00:06:25,168 请继续 177 00:06:25,168 --> 00:06:27,309 继续其他信息 178 00:06:27,309 --> 00:06:29,408 工资实际上上涨了 179 00:06:29,408 --> 00:06:32,720 环比0.4%至3.7万美元 180 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:33,139 点 181 00:06:33,139 --> 00:06:34,699 每小时32美分 182 00:06:34,699 --> 00:06:35,680 同比上涨3.8% 183 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,339 8% 184 00:06:37,339 --> 00:06:39,399 优于通胀 185 00:06:39,399 --> 00:06:41,319 生产与非监管 186 00:06:41,319 --> 00:06:43,060 上涨9美分或 187 00:06:43,060 --> 00:06:44,519 0.3% 188 00:06:44,519 --> 00:06:46,569 至3.23美元 189 00:06:46,569 --> 00:06:49,509 关于家庭调查详情 190 00:06:49,509 --> 00:06:51,430 劳动力参与率60.2% 191 00:06:51,430 --> 00:06:53,110 保持不变 192 00:06:53,110 --> 00:06:57,180 未变的是就业人口比率为5.93% 193 00:06:57,180 --> 00:06:58,879 长期就业达190万 194 00:06:58,879 --> 00:07:02,079 所有失业者中25.3% 195 00:07:02,079 --> 00:07:04,819 同比上升至150万 196 00:07:04,819 --> 00:07:07,959 过去一年失业人数增加150万 197 00:07:07,959 --> 00:07:12,699 长期失业者占比上升2.7% 198 00:07:12,699 --> 00:07:14,110 超过27周 199 00:07:14,110 --> 00:07:14,670 为何是2 200 00:07:14,670 --> 00:07:15,149 七周 201 00:07:15,149 --> 00:07:16,629 这已经超过了半年时间 202 00:07:16,629 --> 00:07:18,509 因经济原因兼职工作 203 00:07:18,509 --> 00:07:22,540 从四十七万七千降至四百四十万 204 00:07:22,540 --> 00:07:24,819 这是这里唯一的积极数据点 205 00:07:24,819 --> 00:07:28,899 工时保持不变，仍为三十四点三小时 206 00:07:28,899 --> 00:07:32,160 这就是我们周五获得的所有数据 207 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:36,839 这些你需要了解的信息可能解释了市场反应 208 00:07:36,839 --> 00:07:37,449 现在 209 00:07:37,449 --> 00:07:42,168 接下来几次会议降息的概率如何 210 00:07:42,168 --> 00:07:42,709 嗯 211 00:07:42,709 --> 00:07:46,048 下次FOMC会议在十二天两小时后 212 00:07:46,048 --> 00:07:46,348 两 213 00:07:46,348 --> 00:07:48,980 从我拍摄视频的位置出发只需四分钟 214 00:07:48,980 --> 00:07:50,839 所以是3月18日 215 00:07:50,839 --> 00:07:55,259 这里显示似乎不会降息 216 00:07:55,259 --> 00:07:56,730 这并不意外 217 00:07:56,730 --> 00:07:57,730 但概率有所上升 218 00:07:57,730 --> 00:07:59,750 概率小幅上升至现在 219 00:07:59,750 --> 00:08:00,850 四点三 percent 220 00:08:00,850 --> 00:08:02,649 较之前的三点七 percent 上升 221 00:08:02,649 --> 00:08:06,899 相比上周的七点四 percent 有所下降 222 00:08:06,899 --> 00:08:07,500 好的 223 00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:09,750 四月的情况如何 224 00:08:09,750 --> 00:08:12,569 现在概率为二十一点四 percent 225 00:08:12,569 --> 00:08:14,189 较昨日的十一 percent 大幅上升 226 00:08:14,189 --> 00:08:15,970 较昨日的四点四 percent 227 00:08:15,970 --> 00:08:18,290 略低于上周水平 228 00:08:18,290 --> 00:08:19,410 上周为二三点三 percent 229 00:08:19,410 --> 00:08:21,319 好的 230 00:08:21,319 --> 00:08:22,060 继续看六月情况 231 00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:27,560 若查看六月当前数据 232 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,149 目前有四十九点七 percent 概率维持当前区间 233 00:08:31,149 --> 00:08:36,610 仍处于当前降息概率范围内 234 00:08:36,610 --> 00:08:39,820 四十一点七 percent 概率高于昨日的三十点二 percent 235 00:08:39,820 --> 00:08:43,840 今日概率较昨日提升 236 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,509 但仍低于上周水平 237 00:08:45,509 --> 00:08:48,370 且明显低于一个月前 238 00:08:48,370 --> 00:08:50,129 一个月前为五一点一 percent 239 00:08:50,129 --> 00:08:51,250 我们继续看七月 240 00:08:51,250 --> 00:08:53,500 一点一 percent 241 00:08:53,500 --> 00:08:55,559 继续展望七月 242 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,500 或许七月就会降息 243 00:08:58,500 --> 00:09:03,259 七月会议的概率显示 244 00:09:03,259 --> 00:09:03,818 是的 245 00:09:03,818 --> 00:09:07,519 七月将实施降息 246 00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:09,619 仍需很长时间 247 00:09:09,619 --> 00:09:11,580 当然到七月为止 248 00:09:11,580 --> 00:09:13,480 许多因素可能变化 249 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,820 在此期间还有几次会议 250 00:09:15,820 --> 00:09:16,259 是的 251 00:09:16,259 --> 00:09:20,220 如果看起来石油价格已经回落 252 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:23,460 唯一的问题将是劳动力市场 253 00:09:23,460 --> 00:09:23,919 是的 254 00:09:23,919 --> 00:09:26,690 将会出现削减 255 00:09:26,690 --> 00:09:28,190 说到石油价格 256 00:09:28,190 --> 00:09:30,669 如果我们观察wti原油价格 257 00:09:30,669 --> 00:09:34,509 目前为88.84美元，上涨9.6% 258 00:09:34,509 --> 00:09:36,529 仅今日上涨6.6% 259 00:09:36,529 --> 00:09:37,289 如你所见 260 00:09:37,289 --> 00:09:37,850 截至今年 261 00:09:37,850 --> 00:09:41,889 年初时我们实际低于60美元 262 00:09:41,889 --> 00:09:46,950 二月底时也低于70美元 263 00:09:46,950 --> 00:09:47,490 是的 264 00:09:47,490 --> 00:09:49,919 确实开始大幅上涨 265 00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:52,460 随着伊朗冲突爆发 266 00:09:52,460 --> 00:09:53,259 现在来看 267 00:09:53,259 --> 00:09:54,490 问题是 268 00:09:54,490 --> 00:09:55,149 是的 269 00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:56,070 能否继续上涨 270 00:09:56,070 --> 00:10:01,990 但更大的问题是这会持续多高多久 271 00:10:01,990 --> 00:10:04,070 假设涨至90美元 272 00:10:04,070 --> 00:10:05,450 但一周后 273 00:10:05,450 --> 00:10:06,409 十天后 274 00:10:06,409 --> 00:10:07,289 两周后 275 00:10:07,289 --> 00:10:08,370 又回到70美元 276 00:10:09,570 --> 00:10:12,690 那不会对全球经济造成太大影响 277 00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:14,789 对美国经济影响有限 278 00:10:14,789 --> 00:10:18,669 如果长期维持这种价位 279 00:10:18,669 --> 00:10:22,070 那时才会看到严重负面影响 280 00:10:22,070 --> 00:10:24,490 可能下半年 281 00:10:24,490 --> 00:10:26,289 因为油价 282 00:10:26,289 --> 00:10:27,610 这些价格的影响 283 00:10:27,610 --> 00:10:29,409 现在需要时间 284 00:10:29,409 --> 00:10:33,789 而油价变动在加油站能立即体现 285 00:10:33,789 --> 00:10:39,110 年初我们了解到委内瑞拉出现变化 286 00:10:39,110 --> 00:10:41,110 这可能有所帮助 287 00:10:41,110 --> 00:10:41,649 美国 288 00:10:41,649 --> 00:10:44,500 仍在大量生产 289 00:10:44,500 --> 00:10:48,840 随后我们收到斯科特·贝桑的推文 290 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:52,919 特朗普的能源计划使石油和天然气产量 291 00:10:52,919 --> 00:10:56,139 达到历史最高水平 292 00:10:56,139 --> 00:10:59,490 以确保石油持续流入全球市场 293 00:11:01,990 --> 00:11:06,490 30天豁免令允许印度炼油厂购买俄油 294 00:11:06,490 --> 00:11:12,220 这一短期措施不会为俄政府带来显著收益 295 00:11:12,220 --> 00:11:17,409 因为它仅授权处理已滞留海上的石油交易 296 00:11:17,409 --> 00:11:19,970 印度是美国的重要伙伴 297 00:11:19,970 --> 00:11:24,299 我们预计新德里将增加美国石油采购 298 00:11:24,299 --> 00:11:26,779 这一措施将缓解市场压力 299 00:11:26,779 --> 00:11:30,539 由伊朗试图劫持全球能源所引发 300 00:11:30,539 --> 00:11:31,139 正如你们所知 301 00:11:31,139 --> 00:11:35,059 她的举措力度形成了一种非常非常诡异的局面 302 00:11:35,059 --> 00:11:37,240 如果我们看看地图 303 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,220 这基本上就是船只必须进出的区域 304 00:11:41,220 --> 00:11:42,190 就在这里 305 00:11:42,190 --> 00:11:43,690 我不知道为什么 306 00:11:43,690 --> 00:11:45,549 经过许许多多的年份 307 00:11:45,549 --> 00:11:50,009 无论是我们还是他们，阿联酋、阿曼等等 308 00:11:50,009 --> 00:11:51,549 他们为何没有想到 309 00:11:51,549 --> 00:11:52,250 我知道这 310 00:11:52,250 --> 00:11:53,870 说起来很简单 311 00:11:53,870 --> 00:11:57,129 但巴拿马运河非常重要 312 00:11:57,129 --> 00:11:59,169 为何不能建在这里 313 00:11:59,169 --> 00:12:00,409 这是我画的这条线 314 00:12:00,409 --> 00:12:01,610 这里并不存在 315 00:12:01,610 --> 00:12:03,590 阿联酋-阿曼运河 316 00:12:03,590 --> 00:12:07,929 与其总是绕行这条航道 317 00:12:07,929 --> 00:12:08,929 就在这里 318 00:12:08,929 --> 00:12:10,230 为何不修建运河 319 00:12:10,230 --> 00:12:12,429 并不会损失太多时间 320 00:12:12,429 --> 00:12:16,539 而且无需再经过这些区域 321 00:12:16,539 --> 00:12:17,919 这是一个项目 322 00:12:17,919 --> 00:12:19,379 我认为值得投资 323 00:12:20,379 --> 00:12:23,210 他们已经在无中生有地造岛 324 00:12:23,210 --> 00:12:27,328 为何不建一条真正惠及世界经济的运河 325 00:12:27,328 --> 00:12:30,129 因为在此期间由于这种局势 326 00:12:30,129 --> 00:12:33,229 油轮运费已创下历史新高 327 00:12:33,229 --> 00:12:36,039 全球超大型原油运输船 328 00:12:36,039 --> 00:12:39,779 平均价格是2008年以来最高 329 00:12:39,779 --> 00:12:42,700 这是我找到的最后价格两百八十万美元 330 00:12:42,700 --> 00:12:45,779 九百零四一点一美元 331 00:12:45,779 --> 00:12:47,320 但我会谈到这个 332 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,419 或许在另一个专题视频里 333 00:12:49,419 --> 00:12:52,279 因为这些公司拥有大量船只 334 00:12:52,279 --> 00:12:54,610 如果这些船只价格更高 335 00:12:54,610 --> 00:12:56,490 如果费率持续高位更久 336 00:12:56,490 --> 00:12:57,190 嗯 337 00:12:57,190 --> 00:12:58,250 你可以猜到 338 00:12:58,250 --> 00:13:02,509 这类公司将赚得盆满钵满 339 00:13:02,509 --> 00:13:04,159 尤其是在短期内 340 00:13:04,159 --> 00:13:05,440 当我们审视当前局势 341 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:06,120 就在这里 342 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:06,720 非常多 343 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,940 许多公司已暂停在这些区域运营 344 00:13:10,940 --> 00:13:14,120 因此油价上涨并不意外 345 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:14,340 是的 346 00:13:14,340 --> 00:13:18,679 许多股票已大幅上涨 347 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:23,929 令人惊讶的是价格开始上涨 348 00:13:23,929 --> 00:13:25,828 年初伊始便已启动 349 00:13:25,828 --> 00:13:27,168 对于那些不太了解的人 350 00:13:27,168 --> 00:13:31,448 大约20%的全球石油和天然气通常经过这里 351 00:13:31,448 --> 00:13:34,659 我们之前见过的这条狭窄海峡 352 00:13:34,659 --> 00:13:37,179 这对我来说非常非常奇怪 353 00:13:37,179 --> 00:13:41,049 为什么这里从未修建过运河呢 354 00:13:41,049 --> 00:13:41,669 为了节省时间 355 00:13:41,669 --> 00:13:45,919 节省成本并避免我们现在面临的困境 356 00:13:45,919 --> 00:13:49,700 如果我们看一下刚才提到的几家上市公司 357 00:13:49,700 --> 00:13:52,169 DHT Holdings和Frontline 358 00:13:52,169 --> 00:13:54,149 另一个就是Sting在这里 359 00:13:54,149 --> 00:13:56,480 观察今年以来的表现 360 00:13:56,639 --> 00:13:57,980 67% 361 00:13:57,980 --> 00:13:59,139 57% 362 00:13:59,139 --> 00:13:59,919 57% 363 00:13:59,919 --> 00:14:01,000 7% 364 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,419 这相当可观 365 00:14:02,419 --> 00:14:09,330 你可以清楚看到在当前局势之前股价已上涨 366 00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:11,149 在当前局势开始前 367 00:14:11,149 --> 00:14:13,490 这些股票已上涨40% 368 00:14:13,490 --> 00:14:15,690 约50% 369 00:14:15,899 --> 00:14:21,019 看来总有人比别人早知道消息 370 00:14:21,019 --> 00:14:24,159 如果我们查看五年的表现 371 00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:27,759 可以看到这些股票已达到历史新高 372 00:14:27,759 --> 00:14:30,720 自2024年6月以来未见 373 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,799 当然自那时达到峰值后 374 00:14:33,799 --> 00:14:37,120 直到2025年解放周 375 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,139 这些股票在此大幅下跌 376 00:14:39,139 --> 00:14:40,299 57% 377 00:14:40,299 --> 00:14:42,620 46%和1% 378 00:14:42,620 --> 00:14:45,830 DHT Holdings下跌15% 379 00:14:45,830 --> 00:14:47,409 自4月损失后 380 00:14:47,409 --> 00:14:49,750 曾小幅回升 381 00:14:49,750 --> 00:14:55,590 但多数股票明显在2025年末开始 382 00:14:55,590 --> 00:14:58,070 2026年初 383 00:14:58,070 --> 00:15:00,049 所以如果你认为 384 00:15:00,049 --> 00:15:00,470 哦 385 00:15:00,470 --> 00:15:03,309 这是赚钱的捷径 386 00:15:03,309 --> 00:15:03,750 嗯 387 00:15:03,750 --> 00:15:06,289 市场已先你一步 388 00:15:06,289 --> 00:15:11,940 因为很明显两个月前已有大量买入 389 00:15:11,940 --> 00:15:14,340 所有这一切指向这张图表 390 00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:14,840 就在这里 391 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:16,629 周五出现大量红色 392 00:15:16,629 --> 00:15:18,970 本周一直有雷达信号 393 00:15:18,970 --> 00:15:23,039 但也有一些绿色，再看今年以来表现 394 00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:24,299 你知道哪里是绿色 395 00:15:24,299 --> 00:15:25,220 你知道哪里是红色 396 00:15:25,220 --> 00:15:26,539 我们已多次讨论过 397 00:15:26,539 --> 00:15:28,259 一次又一次 398 00:15:28,259 --> 00:15:28,919 好吧 399 00:15:28,919 --> 00:15:29,980 你知道他们怎么说的 400 00:15:29,980 --> 00:15:32,980 绝不要让危机白白浪费 401 00:15:32,980 --> 00:15:36,679 那我们就来看看几个具体的名字 402 00:15:36,679 --> 00:15:40,899 我先从一个我持有的名字开始，我们下周要公布财报 403 00:15:40,899 --> 00:15:43,179 那就是瑞柏瑞柏 404 00:15:43,179 --> 00:15:46,539 和其他一些网络安全软件公司类似 405 00:15:46,539 --> 00:15:50,559 股价从周二的低点已反弹 406 00:15:50,559 --> 00:15:54,259 自2月24日以来股价上涨明显 407 00:15:54,259 --> 00:15:57,340 但正如我说的下周是财报发布日 408 00:15:57,340 --> 00:16:02,200 根据初步数据我们已知这将是强劲的季度 409 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,110 但关于指引如何 410 00:16:04,110 --> 00:16:06,269 参考帕洛阿尔托的情况 411 00:16:06,269 --> 00:16:08,830 根据CrowdStrike的反馈 412 00:16:08,830 --> 00:16:11,529 指引看起来也很乐观 413 00:16:11,529 --> 00:16:14,269 现在整个局势如何 414 00:16:14,269 --> 00:16:15,110 嗯 415 00:16:15,110 --> 00:16:18,759 这对网络安全板块非常利好 416 00:16:18,759 --> 00:16:19,958 周五上涨的公司 417 00:16:19,958 --> 00:16:20,958 除了瑞柏之外 418 00:16:20,958 --> 00:16:21,639 还有漫威 419 00:16:21,639 --> 00:16:24,558 当日上涨近20% 420 00:16:24,558 --> 00:16:28,879 漫威紧随博通的良好反应 421 00:16:28,879 --> 00:16:30,759 而博通 422 00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:33,990 当然股价大幅上涨 423 00:16:33,990 --> 00:16:37,710 但漫威并未在周四跟随博通 424 00:16:37,710 --> 00:16:40,779 我们只在漫威公布财报后看到反应 425 00:16:40,779 --> 00:16:42,740 财报表现良好 426 00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:43,720 指引也很出色 427 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,000 表现强劲 428 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:45,980 就像博通的情况一样 429 00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:48,690 还有哪些今日上涨的 430 00:16:48,690 --> 00:16:49,870 火箭实验室上涨 431 00:16:49,870 --> 00:16:51,350 还有ServiceNow 432 00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:52,889 绿色核心礁也上涨 433 00:16:52,889 --> 00:16:55,269 绿色核心礁今日也上涨 434 00:16:55,269 --> 00:16:57,700 看到绿色核心今日上涨很意外 435 00:16:57,700 --> 00:16:58,659 Palantir上涨 436 00:16:58,659 --> 00:17:01,960 过去几天股价也强劲反弹 437 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:03,580 并不意外 438 00:17:03,580 --> 00:17:07,929 其他意外上涨的公司Root终于有所反应 439 00:17:07,929 --> 00:17:10,028 阿里巴巴上涨1.1% 440 00:17:10,028 --> 00:17:12,719 阿里巴巴也将公布财报 441 00:17:12,719 --> 00:17:14,398 看起来下周五 442 00:17:14,398 --> 00:17:17,159 虽然尚未官方确认 443 00:17:17,159 --> 00:17:17,878 但阿里巴巴 444 00:17:17,878 --> 00:17:22,598 股价过去一个月下跌约20% 445 00:17:22,598 --> 00:17:25,250 一直被忽视 446 00:17:25,250 --> 00:17:26,509 A.T. Yes 447 00:17:26,509 --> 00:17:27,650 昨日受挫 448 00:17:27,650 --> 00:17:30,509 但今日上涨1% 449 00:17:30,509 --> 00:17:31,440 3个百分点 450 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:32,480 Salesforce上涨了 451 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,140 看来有些软件名称终于开始回升了 452 00:17:36,140 --> 00:17:40,170 你知道那个股票大幅下跌的梗吗 453 00:17:40,170 --> 00:17:41,490 然后小幅反弹 454 00:17:41,490 --> 00:17:43,769 你看到那个人举着香槟庆祝 455 00:17:43,769 --> 00:17:46,359 这正是我们现在看到的场景 456 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:46,740 是的 457 00:17:46,740 --> 00:17:47,859 这反弹很可观 458 00:17:47,859 --> 00:17:49,059 但看 459 00:17:49,059 --> 00:17:51,589 看看这讨论热度跌了多少 460 00:17:51,589 --> 00:17:52,509 至于其他情况 461 00:17:52,509 --> 00:17:53,869 如果我们观察新云图 462 00:17:53,869 --> 00:17:56,230 唯一上涨的是珊瑚礁 463 00:17:56,230 --> 00:17:57,990 而奇怪的是 464 00:17:57,990 --> 00:17:58,869 我们再次 465 00:17:58,869 --> 00:18:00,750 同样的讨论在继续 466 00:18:00,750 --> 00:18:01,190 哦 467 00:18:01,190 --> 00:18:02,829 铁比nebuus更好 468 00:18:02,829 --> 00:18:03,329 Nebuis 469 00:18:03,329 --> 00:18:04,069 比铁更好 470 00:18:04,069 --> 00:18:05,159 大家持有 471 00:18:05,159 --> 00:18:06,618 无论你想持有什么 472 00:18:06,618 --> 00:18:09,239 我觉得nebulous是最佳选择 473 00:18:09,239 --> 00:18:12,529 这就是为什么我持有更多nebulous而非铁和cory 474 00:18:12,529 --> 00:18:14,890 如果你认为铁更好 475 00:18:14,890 --> 00:18:15,170 好的 476 00:18:15,170 --> 00:18:16,359 那就选择铁 477 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,319 别再讨论其他公司 478 00:18:18,319 --> 00:18:22,170 这说明你可能不了解自己持仓 479 00:18:22,170 --> 00:18:23,630 至于金融板块 480 00:18:23,630 --> 00:18:24,789 可以看到金融科技 481 00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:27,230 这里唯一上涨的是binoplater玩家 482 00:18:27,230 --> 00:18:28,130 这很奇怪 483 00:18:28,130 --> 00:18:29,559 因为只有klarna 484 00:18:29,559 --> 00:18:30,519 并非真正公司 485 00:18:30,519 --> 00:18:33,049 或其它名称 486 00:18:33,049 --> 00:18:35,970 Okay by gaia下跌4.4% 487 00:18:35,970 --> 00:18:39,450 或许他们已发布保守指引 488 00:18:39,450 --> 00:18:43,329 因现状仍不理想 489 00:18:43,329 --> 00:18:43,630 没错 490 00:18:43,630 --> 00:18:46,259 这就是股价大幅下跌的原因 491 00:18:46,259 --> 00:18:46,660 现在 492 00:18:46,660 --> 00:18:48,160 股价仍在持续下跌 493 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,940 因现状可能正如他们所言 494 00:18:50,940 --> 00:18:51,970 将会是 495 00:18:51,970 --> 00:18:54,789 市场短期可能非理性 496 00:18:54,789 --> 00:18:58,029 或许存在市场机会 497 00:18:58,029 --> 00:19:01,069 本地公司尚未公布财报 498 00:19:01,069 --> 00:19:03,299 我们还有约十天时间 499 00:19:03,299 --> 00:19:06,579 我仍然觉得这家公司被严重低估了 500 00:19:06,579 --> 00:19:09,059 从两次财报中完全填补了这个空白 501 00:19:09,059 --> 00:19:10,539 报告顺利通过 502 00:19:10,539 --> 00:19:11,900 至于科技巨头们 503 00:19:11,900 --> 00:19:12,859 我们有网飞 504 00:19:12,859 --> 00:19:14,339 目前略微超买 505 00:19:14,339 --> 00:19:17,809 但我们清楚为什么会出现这种情况 506 00:19:17,809 --> 00:19:20,910 当你不花巨额资金收购 507 00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:23,039 而是开始回购自家股票 508 00:19:23,039 --> 00:19:25,720 我相信他们已经签下了本·阿弗莱克 509 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,809 AI内容驱动的公司 510 00:19:27,809 --> 00:19:33,490 或类似本·阿弗莱克创立的AI电影制作初创公司 511 00:19:33,490 --> 00:19:36,319 现在他们应该有足够的资金 512 00:19:36,319 --> 00:19:39,359 过去几周仍表现强劲 513 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:40,720 至于其他公司 514 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,519 我们看到这些名称已小幅反弹 515 00:19:44,519 --> 00:19:46,700 谷歌已在此区间盘整许久 516 00:19:46,700 --> 00:19:47,460 三百美元 517 00:19:47,460 --> 00:19:50,650 周四我专门做了谷歌视频 518 00:19:50,650 --> 00:19:51,390 元宇宙 519 00:19:51,390 --> 00:19:53,349 仍维持六百五十美元 520 00:19:53,349 --> 00:19:54,369 微软 521 00:19:54,369 --> 00:19:55,970 确实出现小幅回升 522 00:19:55,970 --> 00:19:58,490 就像其他软件公司一样 523 00:19:58,490 --> 00:20:00,049 四百十二美元 524 00:20:00,049 --> 00:20:03,210 市场现在仍毫无头绪 525 00:20:03,210 --> 00:20:05,430 加密货币方向 526 00:20:05,430 --> 00:20:06,009 是的 527 00:20:06,009 --> 00:20:08,970 比特币触及七万三千美元 528 00:20:08,970 --> 00:20:09,849 七万四千美元 529 00:20:09,849 --> 00:20:12,960 但现已回落至七万美元 530 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,119 市场仍不确定方向 531 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:21,480 这也是标普保持原位的原因 532 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,480 十月末处于什么位置 533 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:24,819 是的 534 00:20:24,819 --> 00:20:26,259 我们经历了巨大过激反应 535 00:20:26,259 --> 00:20:27,089 当然 536 00:20:27,089 --> 00:20:28,349 解放日四月 537 00:20:28,349 --> 00:20:31,109 随后出现V型复苏 538 00:20:31,109 --> 00:20:32,430 我们可以看到顶部 539 00:20:32,430 --> 00:20:34,659 前高在二月十八日 540 00:20:34,659 --> 00:20:36,159 我们触及该高点 541 00:20:36,159 --> 00:20:36,999 再次 542 00:20:36,999 --> 00:20:38,949 六月二十三日 543 00:20:38,949 --> 00:20:40,509 几个月后 544 00:20:40,509 --> 00:20:42,449 我们回到此前水平 545 00:20:42,449 --> 00:20:44,799 市场开始大幅下跌 546 00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:49,099 而市场现在持续上涨 547 00:20:49,099 --> 00:20:49,880 谁说得准 548 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,470 我们能否继续下跌 549 00:20:51,470 --> 00:20:56,470 似乎我们到达的最低点是六千五百三十九 550 00:20:56,470 --> 00:21:00,299 现在我们已降至六千七百六十八 551 00:21:00,299 --> 00:21:02,339 我们还能再往下一点吗 552 00:21:02,339 --> 00:21:04,359 这种下跌是什么类型的 553 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,539 大约三点 554 00:21:06,539 --> 00:21:08,789 七个百分点以总结 555 00:21:08,789 --> 00:21:12,150 每次结论都是一样的 556 00:21:12,150 --> 00:21:13,529 如果你不知道该怎么办 557 00:21:13,529 --> 00:21:14,730 那就什么都不做 558 00:21:14,730 --> 00:21:16,470 我们之前见过这种局面 559 00:21:16,470 --> 00:21:17,690 未来还会再次出现 560 00:21:17,690 --> 00:21:20,179 如果这些头条让你恐慌 561 00:21:20,179 --> 00:21:21,219 关上你的笔记本电脑 562 00:21:21,219 --> 00:21:22,098 关上你的台式机 563 00:21:22,098 --> 00:21:22,679 你的手机 564 00:21:22,679 --> 00:21:25,839 无论什么现在别查看你的投资账户 565 00:21:25,839 --> 00:21:28,359 如果你对自己的持仓感到安心 566 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:29,059 那确实 567 00:21:29,059 --> 00:21:31,819 或许你能看到不错的折扣 568 00:21:31,819 --> 00:21:35,769 不过我认为今天的折扣并不夸张 569 00:21:35,769 --> 00:21:39,109 基本和前几天的价格差不多 570 00:21:39,109 --> 00:21:40,730 可能是一周前左右 571 00:21:40,730 --> 00:21:41,509 所以是的 572 00:21:41,509 --> 00:21:42,789 到处都是头条新闻 573 00:21:42,789 --> 00:21:45,559 很多标题旨在吸引你点击 574 00:21:45,559 --> 00:21:46,440 引发恐慌 575 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:46,980 等等 576 00:21:46,980 --> 00:21:47,299 等等 577 00:21:47,299 --> 00:21:50,529 如果这个视频的标题属于这类 578 00:21:50,529 --> 00:21:50,890 嗯 579 00:21:50,890 --> 00:21:52,049 我在尝试不同的标题 580 00:21:52,049 --> 00:21:53,329 如果你点了其中一个 581 00:21:53,329 --> 00:21:55,690 那大概YouTube知道你喜欢什么 582 00:21:55,690 --> 00:21:57,049 但对此我深表歉意 583 00:21:57,049 --> 00:21:58,319 但这就是YouTube的游戏规则 584 00:21:58,319 --> 00:21:59,440 总之 585 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:00,638 保持冷静 586 00:22:00,638 --> 00:22:01,479 投资于你了解的 587 00:22:01,479 --> 00:22:01,719 你知道的 588 00:22:01,719 --> 00:22:02,499 你理解的 589 00:22:02,499 --> 00:22:03,278 不要慌张 590 00:22:03,278 --> 00:22:04,558 如果你不想做任何事 591 00:22:04,558 --> 00:22:05,699 那就什么都不做 592 00:22:05,699 --> 00:22:06,759 祝你周末愉快 593 00:22:06,759 --> 00:22:08,338 大家下次见 594 00:22:08,338 --> 00:22:09,160 再见
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