三个月获利20+%，我为何看上这家公司？

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自AI爆发开始

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全球半导体板块持续活跃

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其中以英伟达最为亮眼

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英伟达毫无疑问是AI这一轮发展中最强的龙头

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但有这样一家公司

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连英伟达都有求于他

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而且他的股价表现同样强势且平顺

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过去八个月连续大涨

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这是英伟达都没有做到的

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更值得一提的是

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这家公司的市盈率目前仅有30倍出头

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而且护城河深不可测

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这家公司就是台积电

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对台积电的思考

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来自今年年初

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英伟达股价的一轮狂飙突进

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从开年的480多美元一路上涨

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3月中旬时已直逼1000美元

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英伟达的暴涨

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使得这一家公司在我账户中占比

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超过了1/3

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让我不得不考虑多样化的必要

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下一步要新增的一个不同的公司

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我不期待它像英伟达那样一年涨几倍

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但这家公司一定要有核心竞争力

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要吃到这一轮科技和AI发展的红利

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同时估值又不能太贵

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最终我选择了台积电

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3月11日

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我第一次买入台积电

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随后不断小幅增加

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到这个月

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未来还会择机增加

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虽然他现在只占有我组合总净值的比重还很低

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不到3%

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但在短短三个月时间里

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台积电为我带来的盈利已经超过22%

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要看懂台积电

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我认为有几大逻辑需要清楚

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包括巨头的依赖

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护城河产业链位置

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业绩增长以及潜在风险

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下面我们详细聊一聊

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如果巨头依赖你

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你就可能是更大的巨头

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基于依赖性判断一个公司价值的思考

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最开始是用在英伟达上

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2023年2月

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英伟达的市值不到5000亿美元

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现在3.1万亿美元

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我在星球中明确表示

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英伟达的市值在一年内会达到1万亿美元

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后来英伟达做到了

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在英伟达达到1万亿美元后

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我又展望英伟达市值看齐苹果

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微软

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英伟达也做到了

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2023年初

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半导体行业还在周期的底部

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AI的应用也只是刚刚开始出现

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Chat gt

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用常规思路去展望

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一年内翻一倍还多

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是非常大胆

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甚至是无厘头的

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但当时对于英伟达的判断

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基于一个非常简单的逻辑

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那就是依赖关系

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因为我发现

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无论是微软谷歌亚马逊meta还是特斯拉

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甚至中国的一众造车新势力

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都离不开英伟达的芯片

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特别是像微软

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谷歌

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亚马逊这些公司

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在一年前的市值是显著大于英伟达的

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但他们当时对于英伟达的依赖程度是非常高的

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所以当巨头们都依赖同一家公司的时候

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那么这家公司一定会成为一个量级巨头

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所以现在看中台积电也是同一个逻辑

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英伟达如今已经成长为

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市值超过3万亿美元的超级巨头

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其他的半导体公司

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比如AMD

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高通

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博通也在跃跃欲试

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但无论是英伟达还是其他半导体公司

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他们都依赖台积电

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就连过去一根筋坚持自己制造的英特尔

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现在也想开了

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让英伟达帮他们代工最新的AIPC芯片

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护城河的深度半导体

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巨头们对于台积电的依赖

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来自于台积电高超的工艺

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这是台积电护城河所在

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非常具体的案例

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你看到的苹果A系列和M系列芯片

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他们的这几年迭代带来的能耗提升

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大部分其实归功于台积电工艺提升

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苹果设计的贡献只占小部分

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而且台积电还是光刻机巨头阿斯麦

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的大股东之一

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甚至参与到了阿斯麦光刻机的研发中去

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2023年第四季度

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全球前十大晶圆代工厂营收

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304.9亿美元

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环比增长7.9%

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其中台积电已接近200亿美元的收入

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以61.2%的市场份额稳居第一

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在未来需求增长潜力最大的AI芯片制造上

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台积电市占率更是接近百分之百

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护城河对于一家公司来说

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直接决定了定价权和利润率

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我们几乎可以直接用一家公司毛利率或净利率

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来考察他们当下的竞争力和护城河

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在2024年一季度

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台积电的毛利率在53.1%

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而净利润率在38.05%

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这简直是恐怖的盈利能力

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作为对比

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台积电的最大客户

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兼有软硬王者生态的苹果

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净利率也不过26.04%

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再看中国大陆的龙头企业华为

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净利率是12.35%

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比亚迪还不到5%

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因此以后别再觉得

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台积电就是个帮半导体甲方打工的马仔了

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现在的情况是

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台积电的代工业务

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比绝大多数客户的利润率更高

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现在的现实行情是

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家家户户求着台积电分配高端产能给自己

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因此台积电可以根据自己的意愿有序加价

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确保营收和利润率

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保持在对得起企业和股东的水平

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看懂了台积电的护城河

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就更能明白这家公司确实不愧为华人之光

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产业链位置以及指数补充

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之所以我在3月没有在英伟达之外

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选择AMD或阿斯麦

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而是选择了台积电

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是因为AMD和英伟达在产业链的相同位置

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且AMD目前在与英伟达的竞争中处于被动局面

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而阿斯麦虽然拥有独此一家的光刻机

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但阿斯麦距离AI产业链的位置稍微远了一点

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这条产业链从应用开始由浅到深

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分别是微软

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谷歌

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meta亚马逊

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特斯拉

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OpenAI等科技公司应用AI推出更好的产品和服务

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AI需要英伟达的设计芯片训练

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英伟达设计的芯片需要台积电制造

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台积电制造需要阿斯麦的光刻机

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未来AI的发展重点一定是在芯片的设计

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制造和应用的普及上

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因此我没有配置阿斯麦

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尽管它确实是一个非常好的公司

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但奈何市场上的好公司实在太多

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我们只能选更适合自己的公司

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而即使未来英伟达的优势被其他公司追上

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例如AMD或者微软和谷歌传说中的自研芯片

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但他们最终还是要拜托台积电去生产

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例如AI的这场竞争

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无论谁赢

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台积电都会赢

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另外台积电不是美国公司

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也不在纳斯达克交易所上市

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因此它既不在标普500指数中

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也不在纳斯达克100指数中

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因此你无脑买QQQ和s spy

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是涵盖不到台积电的配置

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台积电对指数投资者来说有着从无到有的意义

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近期业绩企业的基本面是投资的重中之重

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而台积电的基本面特别值得我们关注

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台积电的业绩

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已经成为现在半导体行业的前瞻性指引数据

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因为几乎所有半导体巨头都是台积电的客户

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在6月7日

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台积电披露最新月读数据显示

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新台币

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约合71.14亿美元

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同比增长30.1%

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今年一至5月

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台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币

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约合328.39亿美元

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同比增长27%

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针对第二季度的四至5月

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台积电累计销售额

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4656.4亿新台币

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同比去年四至5月增长43.5%

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二季度只剩下6月一个月了

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我们拥有了二季度2/3的数据

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因此我们可以预估

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台积电第二季度营收增长

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大概率会达到40%以上的水平

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这对应台积电目前的估值约30倍

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以及具有统治力的护城河来说是非常好的增速

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或者说台积电目前的估值

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相对其增长能力和护城河来说很便宜

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另外几乎可以确定台积电后续会涨价

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这会提升毛利和净利率

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黄仁勋甚至主动表示

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台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低

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没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献

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他认为台积电应该提高价格

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以匹配其提供的价值

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潜在风险与展望

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如果台积电不是一家台湾公司

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而是一家美国公司的话

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现在的市值很可能已经突破了1万亿美元了

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这是因为

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当下的台积电面临一些众所周知的潜在风险

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台积电和美国科技巨头取得成就的背景

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难度是不一样的

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美国是一个

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几乎占满了全球产业链高点的超级大国

219
00:08:05,259 --> 00:08:06,779
而台湾是一个在逆境中

220
00:08:06,779 --> 00:08:10,408
随时面临军事政治大国博弈所威胁的小岛

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但我坚信

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真金不怕火炼

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价值最终会决定价格

224
00:08:15,029 --> 00:08:17,629
而潜在的风险目前看是在减少

225
00:08:17,629 --> 00:08:18,699
而不是在增加

226
00:08:18,699 --> 00:08:20,959
再加上台积电大力度的在日本

227
00:08:20,959 --> 00:08:22,540
美国德国建设工厂

228
00:08:22,540 --> 00:08:25,819
台积电正迅速在从台湾这个地区的公司

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00:08:25,819 --> 00:08:28,199
变成全球化布局的公司

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00:08:28,199 --> 00:08:32,059
我相信和平发展创新将会是未来的趋势

231
00:08:32,059 --> 00:08:34,120
市场也已经说明了一切

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00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:38,580
台股于本周五首次收于2万2500点以上

233
00:08:38,580 --> 00:08:40,879
年内第N次再创历史新高

234
00:08:40,879 --> 00:08:43,019
年内累计上涨25.5%

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00:08:43,019 --> 00:08:45,419
远远领先于全球其他主要市场

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00:08:45,419 --> 00:08:47,539
甚至显著跑赢科技之王纳斯达克

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100的同期的16.8%

238
00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,309
这是市场用真金白银做出的判断

239
00:08:52,309 --> 00:08:53,730
你可以说资本坏

240
00:08:53,730 --> 00:08:56,529
但你千万不要怀疑资本傻

241
00:08:56,529 --> 00:08:58,409
最后这部分是自愿分享

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00:08:58,409 --> 00:09:01,200
因为过去每一次我谈到一些具体的公司

243
00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:01,919
比如微软

244
00:09:01,919 --> 00:09:03,679
苹果英伟达留言和私信

245
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,120
总会收到类似怎么买

246
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:06,659
可惜买不到这样的内容

247
00:09:06,659 --> 00:09:09,568
感兴趣的朋友可以关注公众号一座独立屋

248
00:09:09,568 --> 00:09:11,729
然后在公众号对话框的菜单中

249
00:09:11,729 --> 00:09:13,708
点击右下角的投资美股

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00:09:13,708 --> 00:09:15,379
根据自己的需要和兴趣

251
00:09:15,379 --> 00:09:18,179
选择香港开户或新加坡线上开户

252
00:09:18,179 --> 00:09:21,340
参考各自文墨所介绍的资源

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00:09:21,529 --> 00:09:23,070
如果你喜欢本期视频

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00:09:23,070 --> 00:09:24,490
希望可以点赞关注

255
00:09:24,490 --> 00:09:25,230
支持一波

256
00:09:25,230 --> 00:09:27,519
这将对我有很大的帮助

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