1
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900kg对比4万公斤
2
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这是目前美国下一代先进核燃料的年产量
3
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与需求之间的恐怖鸿沟
4
00:00:06,830 --> 00:00:07,750
嗨朋友们
5
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欢迎来到ruby投资笔记
6
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我是你们的老朋友ruby
7
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那今天这期视频呢
8
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我想告诉你一个反直觉的事情
9
00:00:14,740 --> 00:00:17,940
真正决定美国核能复兴的根本不是反应堆
10
00:00:17,940 --> 00:00:18,929
而是燃料
11
00:00:18,929 --> 00:00:19,809
没有燃料
12
00:00:19,809 --> 00:00:21,269
所谓的AI核能革命
13
00:00:21,269 --> 00:00:24,640
最后可能只是一堆价值数10亿美元的钢铁摆设
14
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更致命的是
15
00:00:25,679 --> 00:00:27,359
由于供应链长期的断层
16
00:00:27,359 --> 00:00:29,079
美国现在几乎没有能力
17
00:00:29,079 --> 00:00:31,759
商业化生产下一代的先进核燃料
18
00:00:31,759 --> 00:00:35,570
而唯一真正把许可证拿到手的人只有一家公司
19
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如果这个逻辑成立
20
00:00:36,969 --> 00:00:37,950
那么未来几年
21
00:00:37,950 --> 00:00:41,530
整个核能产业链最暴利的位置可能不是SMR
22
00:00:41,530 --> 00:00:43,909
而是美国核燃料的本土化
23
00:00:43,909 --> 00:00:45,549
这背后呢藏着两只
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我认为风险收益比远高于SMR的股票
25
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一只是机构重仓压住的核心受益者
26
00:00:51,679 --> 00:00:54,799
另一只呢是不到两美元的高弹性小盘股
27
00:00:54,799 --> 00:00:56,640
他们或许才是真正知道
28
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这轮核能超级周期的公司
29
00:00:58,700 --> 00:01:01,679
所以今天呢我会把整个逻辑链完整拆开
30
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包括为什么AI会逼着美国重启核能
31
00:01:04,379 --> 00:01:06,900
为什么SMR并不是最好的投资
32
00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:08,939
什么是HALEU燃料
33
00:01:08,939 --> 00:01:12,500
以及哪家公司可能成为整个美国核能供应链里
34
00:01:12,500 --> 00:01:14,039
最关键的卖水人呢
35
00:01:14,039 --> 00:01:16,218
如果你喜欢这种产业链的拆解
36
00:01:16,218 --> 00:01:17,578
加投资逻辑的内容
37
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记得先点赞订阅
38
00:01:19,060 --> 00:01:20,299
因为我非常确定
39
00:01:20,299 --> 00:01:21,299
未来三到5年
40
00:01:21,299 --> 00:01:24,799
核能很可能成为AI时代最大的财富主线之一
41
00:01:24,799 --> 00:01:27,409
而现在它的行情才刚刚开始
42
00:01:27,409 --> 00:01:29,689
那本期视频呢你一定要看到最后
43
00:01:29,689 --> 00:01:32,010
因为我已经把lee o的估值模型
44
00:01:32,010 --> 00:01:34,579
URG现货价格暴增的发展前景
45
00:01:34,579 --> 00:01:36,640
以及视频里面提到的另外几家
46
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,099
卖铲子公司的核心投资逻辑全部整理好了
47
00:01:40,099 --> 00:01:41,239
就在视频的最后
48
00:01:41,239 --> 00:01:43,870
所以本期精彩视频你一定不能错过
49
00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:47,640
先说最核心的问题
50
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为什么过去十几年都没人关注的核能
51
00:01:50,219 --> 00:01:52,629
现在成为市场频繁交易的热点
52
00:01:52,629 --> 00:01:54,150
答案其实只有两个字
53
00:01:54,150 --> 00:01:56,859
AI核电板块从去年爆火到现在
54
00:01:56,859 --> 00:01:58,859
我相信很多人都已经理解了
55
00:01:58,859 --> 00:02:00,789
AI只吞电巨兽的事实
56
00:02:00,789 --> 00:02:04,269
而这个事实呢也为核电带来了新的发展机会
57
00:02:04,269 --> 00:02:06,170
一个超大型的AI数据中心
58
00:02:06,170 --> 00:02:09,300
未来甚至可以消耗掉一整座中型城市的电力
59
00:02:09,300 --> 00:02:10,520
而到了2028年
60
00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:12,620
美国数据中心可能会吃掉全美
61
00:02:12,620 --> 00:02:14,180
12%的总电力
62
00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:17,000
很多人对这个12%的电力没有概念
63
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:18,919
今天呢我给大家算一笔账
64
00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:19,800
在美国
65
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:20,479
像微软
66
00:02:20,479 --> 00:02:22,080
谷歌这种超级数据中心
67
00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,319
他拿到的商用工业电价平均是在14美分
68
00:02:25,319 --> 00:02:28,129
一度按照美国国家实验室的测算
69
00:02:28,129 --> 00:02:29,210
到2028年
70
00:02:29,210 --> 00:02:30,889
这12%的电力份额
71
00:02:30,889 --> 00:02:33,259
对应的是整整5800亿度电
72
00:02:33,259 --> 00:02:35,699
5800亿度电乘以十次每分
73
00:02:35,699 --> 00:02:36,830
这意味着什么
74
00:02:36,830 --> 00:02:38,909
这意味着到了2028年
75
00:02:38,909 --> 00:02:39,969
全美科技巨头
76
00:02:39,969 --> 00:02:43,180
光是卡在数据中心电费这一项上的开支
77
00:02:43,180 --> 00:02:46,620
一年就要砸进去超过800亿美元的真金白银
78
00:02:46,620 --> 00:02:48,520
各位一年800亿美元
79
00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:49,750
这还只是电费
80
00:02:49,750 --> 00:02:50,909
在资本市场里
81
00:02:50,909 --> 00:02:53,669
这就意味着一个年化增速超过20%
82
00:02:53,669 --> 00:02:56,539
的纯刚需的超级庞大现金流市场
83
00:02:56,539 --> 00:02:58,539
这笔几百亿美元的泼天富贵
84
00:02:58,539 --> 00:02:59,780
科技巨头必须付
85
00:02:59,780 --> 00:03:01,120
如果你不付钱的话
86
00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:02,329
AI就得停摆
87
00:03:02,329 --> 00:03:04,688
那现在所有人都应该看明白了吧
88
00:03:04,688 --> 00:03:06,808
核电建设是AI发展的刚需
89
00:03:06,808 --> 00:03:08,049
而在这个问题上
90
00:03:08,049 --> 00:03:11,800
美国最顶级的资本大佬突然全部站到了同一边
91
00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,479
比尔盖茨正在建设power power纳冷堆
92
00:03:14,479 --> 00:03:17,669
沃伦巴菲特旗下的能源业务持续加码核电
93
00:03:17,669 --> 00:03:21,030
马斯克更是公开要求美国全面支持核能
94
00:03:21,030 --> 00:03:24,409
注意这三个人平时的很多观点完全相反
95
00:03:24,409 --> 00:03:26,939
但在核能上他们却高度一致
96
00:03:26,939 --> 00:03:28,219
因为他们都知道
97
00:03:28,219 --> 00:03:30,539
AI时代最后拼的根本不是模型
98
00:03:30,539 --> 00:03:32,560
而是谁还能够持续供电
99
00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,840
但接下来真正的问题来了
100
00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,800
因为现在市场上所有人都在讨论反应堆
101
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,120
但很少有人意识到
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00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,400
这些反应堆可能根本启动不了
103
00:03:44,099 --> 00:03:46,900
很多人以为核反应堆只需要普通的油
104
00:03:46,900 --> 00:03:47,759
但实际上
105
00:03:47,759 --> 00:03:51,080
现在这些三进的SMR需要的是一种特殊染料
106
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,080
黑卤高风度的低浓缩铀
107
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它的浓缩度必须精准卡在19.75%
108
00:03:56,439 --> 00:03:59,039
而传统核电站使用的LEU浓缩度
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只有3%到5%
110
00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:01,740
也就是说
111
00:04:01,740 --> 00:04:04,599
黑露比传统商业核反应堆使用的LEU
112
00:04:04,599 --> 00:04:05,500
浓缩度更高
113
00:04:05,500 --> 00:04:08,669
但是又低于武器级铀20%以上的浓度
114
00:04:08,669 --> 00:04:10,389
别看这只是数字差异
115
00:04:10,389 --> 00:04:12,949
这中间存在的技术难度天差地别
116
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没有黑路
117
00:04:13,830 --> 00:04:15,909
很多下一代反应堆根本点不着
118
00:04:15,909 --> 00:04:17,709
包括比尔盖茨的tale power
119
00:04:17,709 --> 00:04:19,170
包括大量的先进堆型
120
00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:19,970
先进大冷堆
121
00:04:19,970 --> 00:04:21,569
高温气冷堆等等
122
00:04:21,569 --> 00:04:23,930
然后真正恐怖的地方来了
123
00:04:23,930 --> 00:04:26,730
全球浓缩铀领域实际上是有四大玩家
124
00:04:26,730 --> 00:04:28,050
俄罗斯的罗斯汤姆
125
00:04:28,050 --> 00:04:29,300
欧洲的游人口
126
00:04:29,300 --> 00:04:32,040
法国的欧拉诺以及美国的CENTRACE
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00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:33,860
它的股票代码是lee u
128
00:04:33,860 --> 00:04:37,180
但真正拥有黑路商业生产资质的只有两家公司
129
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俄罗斯的罗斯汤姆以及美国的lee o
130
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,699
而有人口和欧拉诺
131
00:04:41,699 --> 00:04:44,560
目前只能大规模生产5%以下的传统
132
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:45,480
I o e u
133
00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,079
也就是说在整个西方领域里面
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00:04:48,079 --> 00:04:51,259
lee u在黑罗领域几乎没有真正的竞争对手
135
00:04:51,259 --> 00:04:53,298
它拥有国家战略级的垄断
136
00:04:53,298 --> 00:04:54,559
但这里呢还有一个
137
00:04:54,559 --> 00:04:56,788
华尔街没有怎么讲清楚的细节
138
00:04:56,788 --> 00:04:57,829
很多人以为
139
00:04:57,829 --> 00:04:59,189
既然LEU这么重要
140
00:04:59,189 --> 00:05:00,468
那它马上就能爆赚
141
00:05:00,468 --> 00:05:01,600
没有那么简单
142
00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:03,779
因为黑路真正难的不是许可证
143
00:05:03,779 --> 00:05:04,949
而是离心机
144
00:05:04,949 --> 00:05:07,990
生产黑路需要极其先进的离心机技术
145
00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:11,110
而美国现在真正能用的是lee o的AC
146
00:05:11,110 --> 00:05:12,399
100M离心机
147
00:05:12,399 --> 00:05:14,120
那问题也随之而来
148
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,180
现在lee u在俄亥俄州的普茨茅斯工厂
149
00:05:17,180 --> 00:05:18,980
虽然已经开始交付黑路
150
00:05:18,980 --> 00:05:22,180
但它目前的产能规模还是按照公斤计算
151
00:05:22,180 --> 00:05:25,279
一期工程的年产量目前只有900kg
152
00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,139
但一座标准的300兆瓦
153
00:05:27,139 --> 00:05:30,399
先进SM单次装料的需求就高达15吨
154
00:05:30,399 --> 00:05:32,399
也就是15000kg
155
00:05:32,399 --> 00:05:33,600
到2030年
156
00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,180
美国SMR的年燃料需求很可能超过40公吨
157
00:05:37,180 --> 00:05:38,839
各位发现问题了吗
158
00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:40,980
从900kg到4万公斤
159
00:05:40,980 --> 00:05:42,420
中间差了40多倍
160
00:05:42,420 --> 00:05:45,920
所以这就出现了一个极其荒诞的鸡生蛋的悖论
161
00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:47,279
没有大量的订单
162
00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,160
lee u就没有办法融资扩产
163
00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:50,120
但没有扩产
164
00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,470
美国又不可能真正部署SMR
165
00:05:52,470 --> 00:05:55,209
所以最后美国政府只能亲自下场
166
00:05:55,209 --> 00:05:56,290
这也是为什么
167
00:05:56,290 --> 00:05:59,480
lee u现在几乎已经不是普通的商业公司
168
00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,439
它本质上更像是美国能源部的国运项目
169
00:06:02,439 --> 00:06:05,329
在帮美国重建整个核燃料工业体系
170
00:06:05,329 --> 00:06:06,329
这也是为什么
171
00:06:06,329 --> 00:06:09,970
我认为lee有可能是整个核能链条里最核心的
172
00:06:09,970 --> 00:06:11,199
卖产资的资产
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00:06:11,199 --> 00:06:12,939
因为反应堆可以延期
174
00:06:12,939 --> 00:06:15,269
但是燃料的供应链必须先建立
175
00:06:15,269 --> 00:06:17,470
所以各位朋友看lee u的财报
176
00:06:17,470 --> 00:06:20,928
你千万不能用传统的市盈率PE去生搬硬套
177
00:06:20,928 --> 00:06:22,408
他现在的资本开支
178
00:06:22,408 --> 00:06:24,749
虽然因为扩产离心机而居高不下
179
00:06:24,749 --> 00:06:27,060
自由现金流看起来并不漂亮
180
00:06:27,060 --> 00:06:28,660
但你看他的资产负债表
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00:06:28,660 --> 00:06:30,970
就会发现它的净负债率极低
182
00:06:30,970 --> 00:06:31,730
为什么呢
183
00:06:31,730 --> 00:06:34,029
就是因为它的背后是美国能源部
184
00:06:34,029 --> 00:06:36,360
直接拨付的数亿美元的无偿资金
185
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,639
这在财务上叫做高经营杠杆加持下的政策
186
00:06:39,639 --> 00:06:40,540
现金兜底
187
00:06:40,540 --> 00:06:42,839
只要美国不放弃核能本土化
188
00:06:46,230 --> 00:06:49,790
而他的上限呢就取决于他从公斤级迈向蹲起时
189
00:06:49,790 --> 00:06:52,189
所释放的恐怖产能红利
190
00:06:54,060 --> 00:06:56,899
但如果你觉得LEU太贵怎么办呢
191
00:06:56,899 --> 00:06:59,600
我知道很多朋友们不喜欢买三位数的股票
192
00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,439
那接下来的这个逻辑可能会更适合你
193
00:07:02,439 --> 00:07:05,339
因为在黑路之前还需要一个更底层的东西
194
00:07:05,339 --> 00:07:06,399
叫做铀矿
195
00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:09,889
而美国现在超过90%的油依赖进口
196
00:07:09,889 --> 00:07:11,050
所以特朗普阵营
197
00:07:11,050 --> 00:07:13,250
共和党能源部现在都在强调
198
00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:15,170
建立美国本土油供应链
199
00:07:15,170 --> 00:07:18,990
这个时候就必须提到有ENG股票代码UIG
200
00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:21,730
很多人会拿UIG和CCG相比较
201
00:07:21,730 --> 00:07:24,649
但大部分的普通投资者根本没有办法理解
202
00:07:24,649 --> 00:07:27,139
这两家公司的玩法完全不同
203
00:07:27,139 --> 00:07:29,360
CCG是典型的老前资产
204
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,079
它真正的核心不只是矿
205
00:07:31,079 --> 00:07:32,470
而是长期合同
206
00:07:35,389 --> 00:07:37,000
叫做长期报销合同
207
00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,240
很多普通投资者天天看到油的现货价格暴涨
208
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,240
以为CC机的利润马上爆炸
209
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:43,490
其实并不是
210
00:07:43,490 --> 00:07:46,149
因为CCG有超过80%的产量
211
00:07:46,149 --> 00:07:49,199
很多早就被五到10年的长期合同锁定
212
00:07:49,199 --> 00:07:50,100
也就是说
213
00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:51,860
哪怕今天油的现货暴涨
214
00:07:51,860 --> 00:07:55,750
CCG的很多矿还在按照几年前的低价合同交货
215
00:07:55,750 --> 00:07:59,470
所以现货暴涨对他短期利润的影响没有那么大
216
00:07:59,470 --> 00:08:01,829
真正决定CCG未来利润的是
217
00:08:01,829 --> 00:08:03,750
下一轮长期合同的中签
218
00:08:03,750 --> 00:08:05,189
而URG不一样
219
00:08:05,189 --> 00:08:08,720
URG最大的优势是它拥有更多的未绑定产能
220
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:09,560
什么意思呢
221
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,000
就是它可以把更多的油
222
00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,980
直接按照当前的高价卖向现货市场
223
00:08:13,980 --> 00:08:16,399
所以如果油的价格继续往上冲
224
00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:19,139
URG的利润弹性会远高于CCG
225
00:08:19,139 --> 00:08:22,240
我们来把这两家公司的财务报表撕开来的讲
226
00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:23,579
你会看得更清楚
227
00:08:23,579 --> 00:08:25,779
cc界由于大量长约的存在
228
00:08:25,779 --> 00:08:27,788
它的毛利率期限极其平滑
229
00:08:27,788 --> 00:08:30,269
经营现金流连续多年稳定为证
230
00:08:30,269 --> 00:08:32,740
这让它具备了极高的财务能见度
231
00:08:32,740 --> 00:08:36,139
这也是为什么华尔街那些几10亿规模的养老金
232
00:08:36,139 --> 00:08:38,639
和长线共同基金都只敢买CCG
233
00:08:38,639 --> 00:08:40,740
但是URG完全是另一个极端
234
00:08:40,740 --> 00:08:43,879
他的财报在平时看起来甚至有点寒酸可疑
235
00:08:43,879 --> 00:08:46,119
但现货油价突破周期临界点
236
00:08:46,119 --> 00:08:48,119
由于它没有长月的低价束缚
237
00:08:48,119 --> 00:08:50,239
新增的营收几乎可以百分之百
238
00:08:50,239 --> 00:08:51,789
直接转化成纯利润
239
00:08:51,789 --> 00:08:53,190
油价每涨十美金
240
00:08:53,190 --> 00:08:55,590
UIGABT等和每股收益1PSS
241
00:08:55,590 --> 00:08:57,440
就会出现阶越式的暴增
242
00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,039
普通投资者买URG
243
00:08:59,039 --> 00:09:01,000
买的根本不是他的资产抵御
244
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,839
而是买的他对现货价格最敏感的那根财经弹簧
245
00:09:04,839 --> 00:09:07,219
这也是为什么CCG像养老金
246
00:09:07,219 --> 00:09:08,899
URG像杠杆ETF
247
00:09:08,899 --> 00:09:10,278
一个是机构的老钱
248
00:09:10,278 --> 00:09:12,279
一个是高波动的游资标的
249
00:09:12,279 --> 00:09:14,419
但是接下来我要讲的这家公司
250
00:09:14,419 --> 00:09:19,039
才是整个核能故事里最容易被忽略的隐形pose
251
00:09:20,639 --> 00:09:22,379
很多人只知道CCG
252
00:09:22,379 --> 00:09:23,720
但很少有人意识到
253
00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,840
真正的大佬其实是布鲁克菲尔德
254
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,279
股票代码BEP
255
00:09:27,279 --> 00:09:28,279
2023年
256
00:09:28,279 --> 00:09:29,740
BEP联合CCG
257
00:09:29,740 --> 00:09:32,059
以79亿美元收购了西屋电气
258
00:09:32,059 --> 00:09:34,100
BEP持股51%
259
00:09:34,100 --> 00:09:35,889
CCG持股49%
260
00:09:35,889 --> 00:09:38,149
而西屋电气这家公司是什么呢
261
00:09:38,149 --> 00:09:39,169
它不是矿企
262
00:09:39,169 --> 00:09:42,580
它是全球核反应堆设计生态里的超级霸主
263
00:09:42,580 --> 00:09:45,639
全球大量核电站都在使用西屋技术路线
264
00:09:45,639 --> 00:09:47,720
如果说CCG卖的是面粉
265
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,759
那B1P控制的西屋电器卖的是面包机
266
00:09:50,759 --> 00:09:52,039
但真正恐怖的是
267
00:09:52,039 --> 00:09:52,919
B1B自己
268
00:09:52,919 --> 00:09:56,399
本来就是全球最大的绿电和基础设施的建设方
269
00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:59,559
他手里本身就握着大量的数据中心的长期
270
00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:00,720
PPA供电协议
271
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,200
微软亚马逊的大量AI能源需求
272
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,700
所以B1T的整个投资逻辑突然变得非常可怕
273
00:10:06,700 --> 00:10:08,320
他左手拥有核电技术
274
00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,490
右手拥有数据中心能源需求
275
00:10:10,490 --> 00:10:13,710
等于他正在尝试把核电直接卖给AI
276
00:10:13,710 --> 00:10:15,809
这已经不是单纯的能源生意
277
00:10:15,809 --> 00:10:18,450
这是未来AI基础设施的定价权
278
00:10:18,450 --> 00:10:21,029
现在我们来看一下B1P的账本
279
00:10:21,029 --> 00:10:23,389
很多普通投资者一看到BEP
280
00:10:23,389 --> 00:10:26,250
账面上庞大的负债总额就直接被吓跑掉
281
00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:28,149
这完全是外行在看热闹
282
00:10:28,149 --> 00:10:30,450
作为全球顶级的基础设施巨鳄
283
00:10:30,450 --> 00:10:32,289
B1P玩的是一个高杠杆
284
00:10:32,289 --> 00:10:35,120
强现金流资产证券化的高阶财务游戏
285
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,840
他的大部分债务都是长期固定利率
286
00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,440
且与单一项目挂钩的
287
00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:40,679
非追索权的贷款
288
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,919
根本引发不了系统性的暴雷
289
00:10:42,919 --> 00:10:43,600
相反呢
290
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,200
他手里握着的是和微软
291
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:46,320
亚马逊签下了
292
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,139
长达15到20年的PPA购电协议
293
00:10:49,139 --> 00:10:52,539
这种协议在财务上等同于抗通胀的永续债
294
00:10:52,539 --> 00:10:54,620
欠西屋电气的技术底蕴
295
00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:56,639
加上这些硬通货的电力资产
296
00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:00,220
让B1P的运营现金流具备了可怕的复利效应
297
00:11:00,220 --> 00:11:03,259
他一边拿着超过4%的稳定分红派息
298
00:11:03,259 --> 00:11:04,440
死守下行风险
299
00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:05,259
一边想著
300
00:11:05,259 --> 00:11:09,529
等核电资产并入AI估值体系带来的戴维斯双击
301
00:11:11,279 --> 00:11:13,860
但这里呢我必须给大家泼一盆冷水
302
00:11:13,860 --> 00:11:15,220
因为现在的科技媒体
303
00:11:15,220 --> 00:11:17,679
把SMR吹的太像万能药了
304
00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,559
好像未来每个数据中心旁边
305
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,539
都必须放一个核反应堆一样
306
00:11:21,539 --> 00:11:23,779
但现实情况没有那么简单
307
00:11:23,779 --> 00:11:26,820
因为核裂变它有一个永远绕不过去的东西
308
00:11:26,820 --> 00:11:27,759
叫做肺热
309
00:11:27,759 --> 00:11:29,519
无论SMR多先进
310
00:11:29,519 --> 00:11:31,279
哪怕是比尔盖茨的钠冷堆
311
00:11:31,279 --> 00:11:33,340
但本质上它依然是在烧开水
312
00:11:33,340 --> 00:11:34,279
推动汽轮机
313
00:11:34,279 --> 00:11:35,289
然后发电
314
00:11:35,289 --> 00:11:37,970
核电站的转化效率大概只有33%
315
00:11:37,970 --> 00:11:39,169
到35%
316
00:11:39,169 --> 00:11:43,068
这就意味着接近2/3的能量都会变成废热
317
00:11:43,068 --> 00:11:45,788
而这些热量呢需要大量的冷却水
318
00:11:45,788 --> 00:11:47,068
那问题也来了
319
00:11:47,068 --> 00:11:49,969
AI数据中心本身也是超级耗水怪兽
320
00:11:49,969 --> 00:11:52,139
尤其是液冷和蒸发冷却系统
321
00:11:52,139 --> 00:11:54,919
所以未来最大的矛盾可能不是缺点
322
00:11:54,919 --> 00:11:55,919
而是缺水
323
00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:58,759
如果SMR和数据中心部署在一起
324
00:11:58,759 --> 00:12:00,919
他们会同时争夺水资源
325
00:12:00,919 --> 00:12:03,200
环保审批排着许可土地
326
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,480
这也是为什么现在市场涨的好像
327
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:07,639
明年SMR就要全面落地一样
328
00:12:07,639 --> 00:12:10,960
但是真实的商业化可能远比PPT要慢得多
329
00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:12,259
这不是技术问题
330
00:12:12,259 --> 00:12:14,639
这是物理学上的限制
331
00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:18,539
所以最后呢我给大家总结一下
332
00:12:18,539 --> 00:12:21,100
如果未来核能真的进入超级周期
333
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:24,629
哪些公司才是真正站在产业链核心位置的呢
334
00:12:24,629 --> 00:12:27,730
第一个环节就是燃料浓缩环节的LEU
335
00:12:27,730 --> 00:12:30,710
它是美国唯一商业黑路许可证的拥有者
336
00:12:30,710 --> 00:12:33,450
整个美国核燃料自主化的核心独苗
337
00:12:33,450 --> 00:12:34,110
高壁垒
338
00:12:34,110 --> 00:12:35,129
高政治绑定
339
00:12:35,129 --> 00:12:38,210
第二个环节呢是铀矿老钱资产的CCG
340
00:12:38,210 --> 00:12:40,570
全球顶级高品位铀矿的拥有者
341
00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:43,350
同时绑定了西屋技术生态机构的最爱
342
00:12:43,350 --> 00:12:45,830
第三个环节是高弹新的小盘股
343
00:12:45,830 --> 00:12:47,789
URG为绑定的产能更多
344
00:12:47,789 --> 00:12:49,789
对于现货油价敏感度极高
345
00:12:49,789 --> 00:12:50,879
波动巨大
346
00:12:50,879 --> 00:12:53,639
那真正的幕后资本巨鳄其实是B1P
347
00:12:53,639 --> 00:12:54,940
他控股了西屋电气
348
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:57,120
同时掌控了数据中心的能源需求
349
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:58,360
真正的左手核电
350
00:12:58,360 --> 00:12:59,679
右手AI的公司
351
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,000
那最后呢我想给大家再补充一个
352
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,200
就是核电的核心设备制造商BWXT
353
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,360
他是美国海军核潜艇反应堆的核心供应商
354
00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,740
未来SMR核心压力容器的制造能力极强
355
00:13:11,740 --> 00:13:13,460
尤其是BWXT
356
00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:16,779
它还是很多普通投资者根本没有关注到的
357
00:13:16,779 --> 00:13:18,830
军工领域的卖产资的公司
358
00:13:18,830 --> 00:13:21,470
那为什么我要重点提一下这家公司呢
359
00:13:21,470 --> 00:13:23,669
是因为他的财务结构非常干净
360
00:13:23,669 --> 00:13:25,710
它的营收里面有超过70%
361
00:13:29,099 --> 00:13:30,058
这就意味着
362
00:13:30,058 --> 00:13:31,339
无论原材料怎么涨
363
00:13:31,339 --> 00:13:33,778
它的毛利率都能雷打不动的稳定在
364
00:13:33,778 --> 00:13:34,970
20%以上
365
00:13:34,970 --> 00:13:36,169
在财务指标上
366
00:13:36,169 --> 00:13:37,169
他的资本回报率
367
00:13:37,169 --> 00:13:40,799
ROOIC和自由现金流转化率常年霸占行业前列
368
00:13:40,799 --> 00:13:43,639
当他把这种在军工领域磨练了几十年的
369
00:13:43,639 --> 00:13:46,190
零违约风险财务模型降维打击
370
00:13:46,190 --> 00:13:49,200
应用到商业SMR的压力容器制造上市
371
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,240
他不需要像KLO那样天天去讲PPT
372
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:53,259
去融资烧钱
373
00:13:53,259 --> 00:13:56,568
他靠自己原本的军工利润就能完成技术迭代
374
00:13:56,568 --> 00:13:59,068
这就是典型的防守型的成长股
375
00:13:59,068 --> 00:14:02,249
现在呢我已经把这几家公司详细的估值模型
376
00:14:02,249 --> 00:14:05,448
以及一些具体的短线操作全部整理好了
377
00:14:05,448 --> 00:14:08,080
可以点击评论区的置顶链接进行领取
378
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:09,399
那名额十分有限
379
00:14:09,399 --> 00:14:12,659
只对真正愿意做深度基本面研究的朋友们开放
380
00:14:12,659 --> 00:14:15,279
如果你想踩中核能赛道的下一个长牛股
381
00:14:15,279 --> 00:14:17,620
千万不要错过这次机会
382
00:14:19,259 --> 00:14:21,279
所以现在回到最开始的问题
383
00:14:21,279 --> 00:14:24,159
为什么我不建议大家无脑的去追SMR
384
00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:26,289
是因为很多SMR的公司
385
00:14:26,289 --> 00:14:28,610
现在交易的是2030年的梦想
386
00:14:28,610 --> 00:14:30,379
而不是2026年的现实
387
00:14:30,379 --> 00:14:31,700
真正商业化的落地
388
00:14:31,700 --> 00:14:33,019
它还有太多的变量
389
00:14:33,019 --> 00:14:34,379
比如说监管融资
390
00:14:34,379 --> 00:14:35,120
冷却水
391
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,299
环保工期成本等等
392
00:14:37,299 --> 00:14:40,820
但是LEUCCGURGBWXT
393
00:14:40,820 --> 00:14:43,419
这些公司很多已经开始赚钱
394
00:14:43,419 --> 00:14:46,600
这就是故事股和现金流股最大的区别
395
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,279
历史其实一直都在重复同一个剧本
396
00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:51,120
淘金热时期淘金者很多
397
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:51,759
最后破产
398
00:14:51,759 --> 00:14:53,210
卖铲子的发了财
399
00:14:53,210 --> 00:14:55,210
互联网时代网站大量倒闭
400
00:14:55,210 --> 00:14:57,429
卖网络设备的思科却赚翻了
401
00:14:57,429 --> 00:14:58,210
AI时代
402
00:14:58,210 --> 00:15:00,200
大量AI创业公司还在烧钱
403
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,259
但真正成为全球市值之王的却是NVIDIA
404
00:15:03,259 --> 00:15:04,679
所以今天这期视频
405
00:15:04,679 --> 00:15:07,490
我真正想告诉大家的其实只有一句话
406
00:15:07,490 --> 00:15:09,830
不要只盯着新闻里最火的股票
407
00:15:09,830 --> 00:15:12,960
真正的大机会往往藏在产业链最深的位置
408
00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:14,799
那最后呢我也想问问大家
409
00:15:14,799 --> 00:15:17,519
如果未来美国真的全面进入核能时代
410
00:15:17,519 --> 00:15:19,730
你觉得最大的赢家会是谁呢
411
00:15:19,730 --> 00:15:22,929
是SMRLEUCCGURG
412
00:15:22,929 --> 00:15:25,590
还是那个真正隐藏在背后的BEP呢
413
00:15:25,590 --> 00:15:26,970
可以评论区告诉我
414
00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:28,710
你的答案我会认真的看
415
00:15:28,710 --> 00:15:31,870
那如果你觉得我今天分析的这几家公司的逻辑
416
00:15:31,870 --> 00:15:32,970
对你有启发的话
417
00:15:32,970 --> 00:15:34,840
记得在评论区打个有用
418
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,320
同时也欢迎点赞订阅ruby投资笔记
419
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:39,059
不错过下一期精彩视频
420
00:15:39,059 --> 00:15:39,919
我是ruby
421
00:15:39,919 --> 00:15:40,820
咱们一起约会
422
00:15:40,820 --> 00:15:41,519
下期再见
423
00:15:41,519 --> 00:15:41,960
拜