【Couch Investor】五月必看：我正在抄底的4只美股

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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今天视频中我们将讨论很多内容

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我们有市场利的财报分析

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我刚看完核心编织火箭实验室的盘后报告，真是个美妙的夜晚

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嗯

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结果总体不错

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股票反应有些参差

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接下来我们将讨论仍值得买入的股票

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或加入本月观察清单

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现在我们来看今天的市场表现

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可以看到市场呈现混合态势

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有些个股今天大幅上涨

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英特尔上涨14%

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美光科技上涨13%

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高通上涨8%

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富国银行上涨4%

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赛富时上涨6%

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应用材料也上涨6%

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我们观察云计算板块

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市场反应不一

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核心礁石下跌12%

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新思科技下跌8.1%

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昨日收盘时曾上涨2.5%

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现在仅上涨3.3%

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我将详细解释原因

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至于金融科技板块

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Shift4下跌6.3%

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此前曾上涨9%

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昨日发布财报后

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Toast报告出炉

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由此可见市场并不看好财报

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由于Toast和Shift4同属餐饮行业

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尽管Shift4业务多元化

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但市场对Shift4反应不佳

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嗯

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市场正在打击Shift4

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至于其他个股

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Cesar昨日大幅上涨

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而所有五家Gaia下跌4%

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其余个股基本下跌

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再次显示金融科技板块不受青睐

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唯一上涨的是Block

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他们也发布了财报

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市场似乎认可他们的表现

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这是显著的转变

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没错

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想象这种增长和效率提升

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现在该学习谁的经验了

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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你应该知道该怎么做

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按下所有按钮

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我们真的非常感谢

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继续支持我查看描述下方的链接

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评论区最终列出了前十佳演讲

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哦

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前往full.com官网

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斜杠

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Goinvestor

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非常感谢

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当然特别

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感谢我频道上最优秀的合作伙伴之一

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Fiscal ai

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您现在看到的平台

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所有数据

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所有字幕

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一切内容均来自该平台

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部分观众可能知道

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因为您使用了链接

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现在已有两个

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接下来几天五折优惠

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而非十五折

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如果您是新用户

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点击

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描述和评论区下方的链接

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您可以试用

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Fiscal pro 前两周免费

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之后如果合适的话

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您获得的优惠远超百分之九十

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您将看到的所有内容

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所有图表均由该平台驱动

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今天要讨论的第一个是Mercado Libre

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Mercado

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Libra 下跌了12.8%

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8%

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我说另一个是因为过去十二个月

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股价累计下跌23.4%

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截至今年

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下跌17.4%

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是的

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这不是AI名称

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也不是记忆名称

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更不是低价股

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所以它必然下跌

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但如果您问我

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这正是当前市场绝佳机会之一

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您会说绝佳机会

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市值82.6亿美元

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26亿美元

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好的

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但观察交易情况

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四三四一三六点三

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这有点贵

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嗯

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是的

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它一直以溢价交易

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为什么呢因为市场物流是唯一一家公司

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是唯一一家实现收入增长的公司

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同比年增长超过百分之三十

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过去现在连续九个季度

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所以如果我们看收入

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我们调出数据

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然后要回溯到大约

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我觉得我们看看吧

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我们来做同比对比

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可能还要更久一点

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从三月季度开始

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二十

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十九

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七年

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在这七年中每个季度他们都成功增长

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百分之三十或更多

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它是唯一一家公司

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而在过去的七年里我们经历了不同环境

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美国的不同环境

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南美的不同环境

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他们现在运营的市场

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如果看看过去几个季度的情况

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这里看到的是增长加速

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比如三

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三点八%还不够好

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他们随后增长了三点九四

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四

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四点五%而上季度四九%

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但市场惩罚短期大量投资的公司

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所以再次

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毛利率缺口导致战略运营收入同比降百分之二十

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毛利率压缩至六点九%

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因为管理层选择投资而非收割

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这不是第一次这样做了

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可能也不会是最后一次

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或者

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巴西商业正在影响

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在外汇中性条件下巴西GMV增长三点

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八%同比

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商品销量增长百分之五六

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本地货币单位物流成本下降百分之十七

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至于金融科技方面

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信贷组合增长至十四点六亿美元

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信用卡业务快速扩展

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但会稀释短期利润并需提前拨备

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这是我们讨论了很长时间的事情

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这就是我们本季度关注的营收增长49%

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GMV增长42%

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TPV增长50%

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好的

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利润率受压

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现在达到600个基点

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净利润率

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4.7%

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净利润同比下滑16%

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金融科技月活用户8300万同比增长2%

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9%同比

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唯一买家8400万同比增长2%

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5%同比

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巴西买家增长创五年新高

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当然

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当你开始提供免运费服务

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这就是你想要看到的

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你不想看到公司说

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你知道现在我们要提供免运费了

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这意味着你要承受损失

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然后某些关键指标却没有提升

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在这种情况下我们看到他们的计划有效且超出预期

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所以这里

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标题说的很清楚

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这堪称经典案例

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更好增长

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更差利润率季度

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我认为这将继续是美客多的核心故事

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市场对这类公司非常敏感

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那些业绩优异的公司决定投资

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因为这是他们必须做的最佳选择

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或者他们现在能做的

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为确保未来业务更成功

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一个市场就是不喜欢

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无论是美客多

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还是meta

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或其他公司

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但对我们来说

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长期投资者

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我认为现在确实存在机会

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二季度需关注两点

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卖家促销开始生效

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二季度利润表

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美客多在特定品类和价格区间下调抽成

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条件是卖家保持竞争性价格

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管理层明确表示调整在一季度末实施

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因此主要影响体现在二季度

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至于竞争压力

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亚马逊的压力确实存在

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但马利表示其指标仍持续增强

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巴西转化率同比上升一个百分点

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而频率

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多品类购物留存率

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以及净推荐值均有所改善

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竞争正在加剧

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派和混战正在占据更大份额

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请记住这些竞争对手已在这些市场运营了近十年

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但没错

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混战持续证明自身优势

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为何能成为行业标杆

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我仍预期他们将在未来

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许多年

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保持行业领先地位

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随着自身生态系统的扩展

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关于信贷业务

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他们指出三分之二的拨备由

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息差收窄是机械性调整

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信贷规模增长87%

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远超总收入增速

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因此预期损失提前增加

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管理层怎么说

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这涉及巴西个人贷款平均期限延长

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从五个月增至八个月

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我可能认为这是不利的

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但若与纽或欧等竞争对手相比

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仍非常短暂

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而市场利率对

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这相当容易

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这是一家被市场惩罚的优质公司

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毕竟

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目前

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很明显

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市场厌恶一切

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这并非

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AI及基础设施

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可能涉及半导体或存储领域

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其他公司无关紧要

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如果表现优异

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盈利能力极强

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市场完全无视

242
00:08:50,919 --> 00:08:52,419
即使是软件公司

243
00:08:52,419 --> 00:08:55,039
我们已讨论SaaS等公司许久

244
00:08:55,039 --> 00:08:58,169
但软件类公司近期

245
00:08:58,169 --> 00:09:00,769
每个都发布了超预期财报

246
00:09:00,769 --> 00:09:02,129
本季度业绩超预期

247
00:09:02,129 --> 00:09:04,009
并大幅调高评级

248
00:09:04,009 --> 00:09:10,389
市场何时能意识到担忧可能过度

249
00:09:10,389 --> 00:09:14,049
这些公司估值或许极具吸引力

250
00:09:14,049 --> 00:09:16,559
或许无需追逐所有其他标的

251
00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,120
或者也许市场流动性可能不足

252
00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:25,948
因为一切都在单向流动可能就是这样

253
00:09:25,948 --> 00:09:26,649
但对我来说

254
00:09:26,649 --> 00:09:27,649
自由市场

255
00:09:27,649 --> 00:09:29,509
肯定在名单上

256
00:09:29,509 --> 00:09:31,649
其他几个都很容易

257
00:09:31,649 --> 00:09:34,639
只要Meta保持在600美元左右

258
00:09:34,639 --> 00:09:35,820
对我来说就是个简单买入

259
00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:37,279
这里的情况同样如此

260
00:09:37,279 --> 00:09:37,879
再次

261
00:09:37,879 --> 00:09:39,639
市场并不看好这些投资

262
00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:41,139
巨大的资本支出周期

263
00:09:41,139 --> 00:09:42,578
好吧

264
00:09:42,578 --> 00:09:44,778
但Meta今天已经显示

265
00:09:44,778 --> 00:09:47,568
所有投资的积极成果

266
00:09:47,568 --> 00:09:48,568
他们已经展示了这一点

267
00:09:48,568 --> 00:09:51,568
他们的核心业务越来越好

268
00:09:51,568 --> 00:09:55,210
然而市场似乎并不在意

269
00:09:55,210 --> 00:09:56,039
我关心

270
00:09:56,039 --> 00:09:58,480
这就是为什么我要列入名单

271
00:09:58,480 --> 00:09:59,000
再次

272
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,279
我一直在持续买入更多

273
00:10:01,279 --> 00:10:01,600
Meta

274
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:01,899
是的

275
00:10:01,899 --> 00:10:03,179
尽管规模庞大

276
00:10:03,179 --> 00:10:08,259
就像去年谷歌也是市值150美元的大公司

277
00:10:08,259 --> 00:10:12,539
但猜猜我们现在一年后接近400美元

278
00:10:12,539 --> 00:10:13,779
相当惊人

279
00:10:13,779 --> 00:10:16,159
另一个也是被讨厌的名字

280
00:10:16,159 --> 00:10:18,500
所以我是金融科技

281
00:10:18,500 --> 00:10:19,919
Sofi、Robinhood

282
00:10:19,919 --> 00:10:20,580
随便举个例子

283
00:10:20,580 --> 00:10:22,919
本地公司肯定也在名单上

284
00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:25,299
本地财报预计下周公布

285
00:10:25,299 --> 00:10:28,539
所以我们得等待结果如何

286
00:10:28,539 --> 00:10:29,759
但我仍然预期

287
00:10:29,759 --> 00:10:30,200
是的

288
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:31,889
转化率会略有下降

289
00:10:31,889 --> 00:10:35,970
但TPV将比放缓速度更快增长

290
00:10:35,970 --> 00:10:38,859
转化率过去几个月一直是这种情况

291
00:10:38,859 --> 00:10:40,149
这合乎逻辑

292
00:10:40,149 --> 00:10:40,750
但没错

293
00:10:40,750 --> 00:10:43,549
很多这些名称我们昨天讨论过

294
00:10:43,549 --> 00:10:45,809
我们持有的很多名称

295
00:10:45,809 --> 00:10:46,649
我们持续关注

296
00:10:46,649 --> 00:10:48,289
今年尚未上涨

297
00:10:48,289 --> 00:10:49,129
今年

298
00:10:49,129 --> 00:10:51,909
现在交易价格非常合理

299
00:10:51,909 --> 00:10:52,850
你可能会说是啊

300
00:10:52,850 --> 00:10:55,570
但现在买入这些名称值得吗

301
00:10:55,570 --> 00:10:58,149
因为他们确实没有任何势头

302
00:10:58,149 --> 00:10:58,730
我当时就说

303
00:10:58,730 --> 00:10:59,210
是啊

304
00:10:59,210 --> 00:11:00,318
你说得对

305
00:11:00,318 --> 00:11:02,278
他们现在完全没有势头

306
00:11:02,278 --> 00:11:02,899
所以是的

307
00:11:02,899 --> 00:11:05,480
当你今天投资这些公司

308
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,799
这些公司可能在未来几个月保持横盘

309
00:11:10,799 --> 00:11:12,620
如果你觉得没问题

310
00:11:12,620 --> 00:11:14,600
绝佳机会

311
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,000
如果你不喜欢

312
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:17,899
如果你今天买入一个月后

313
00:11:17,899 --> 00:11:19,620
这个东西没动

314
00:11:19,620 --> 00:11:22,200
那好吧那就别买

315
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,539
但像我一样很多人

316
00:11:24,539 --> 00:11:25,840
我着眼长期

317
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,220
我在想

318
00:11:27,220 --> 00:11:29,220
现在市场可能不看好

319
00:11:29,220 --> 00:11:33,440
但我宁愿以这些价格买入

320
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:35,438
市场突然青睐它们

321
00:11:35,438 --> 00:11:37,458
这些公司大幅上涨

322
00:11:37,458 --> 00:11:39,059
大家都在涌入

323
00:11:39,059 --> 00:11:39,559
而且

324
00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:39,820
好的

325
00:11:39,820 --> 00:11:43,600
现在我必须为同一家公司支付更多

326
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,078
我认为长期来看Meta当前被低估

327
00:11:47,078 --> 00:11:47,979
在我看来

328
00:11:47,979 --> 00:11:49,839
市盈率两倍

329
00:11:49,839 --> 00:11:50,198
两倍

330
00:11:50,198 --> 00:11:51,119
两倍市盈率

331
00:11:51,119 --> 00:11:52,178
与之前相同

332
00:11:52,178 --> 00:11:52,418
是的

333
00:11:52,418 --> 00:11:53,479
市销率再次

334
00:11:53,479 --> 00:11:55,460
这就是现在的问题

335
00:11:55,460 --> 00:11:58,879
但仍是极度盈利的业务

336
00:11:58,879 --> 00:11:59,279
是的

337
00:11:59,279 --> 00:12:00,720
他们在大量投资

338
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:01,080
是的

339
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,799
今年自由现金流可能为负

340
00:12:04,799 --> 00:12:08,159
但这家公司依然盈利

341
00:12:08,159 --> 00:12:11,570
当资本支出周期放缓时

342
00:12:11,570 --> 00:12:13,470
他们仍会继续支出

343
00:12:13,470 --> 00:12:17,830
但不会像之前那样大幅增加

344
00:12:17,830 --> 00:12:20,269
过去两三年

345
00:12:20,269 --> 00:12:24,600
一旦发生这种情况就会迅速反转

346
00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:25,980
我们之前见过

347
00:12:25,980 --> 00:12:28,200
两三年前就出现过

348
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,188
如果我们回顾之前的资本支出

349
00:12:32,188 --> 00:12:35,509
同时观察公司的自由现金流

350
00:12:35,509 --> 00:12:37,529
看看季度数据

351
00:12:37,529 --> 00:12:38,850
我们关注资本支出

352
00:12:38,850 --> 00:12:43,590
然后我们将提取自由现金流数据

353
00:12:43,590 --> 00:12:45,720
你会看到这之前发生过

354
00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,279
如果我们延长至

355
00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:47,860
当你知道时

356
00:12:47,860 --> 00:12:51,929
当梅塔大幅下跌时看自由

357
00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:55,500
现金流几乎转负

358
00:12:55,500 --> 00:12:58,000
然后就像开关一翻

359
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,539
现在又回升了

360
00:13:00,539 --> 00:13:03,000
不再是负值或接近

361
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:08,259
但如果看看市场对未来

362
00:13:08,259 --> 00:13:13,438
实际上在未来一年左右你会看到以下情况负值

363
00:13:13,438 --> 00:13:14,519
自由现金流季度

364
00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:16,379
连续三个季度

365
00:13:16,379 --> 00:13:20,499
然后大约一年后开始转正

366
00:13:20,499 --> 00:13:21,889
再次现在

367
00:13:21,889 --> 00:13:24,379
如果这种情况不发生会怎样

368
00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:28,539
如果下一季度仍能产生自由现金流

369
00:13:28,539 --> 00:13:31,620
那么分析师预期有误

370
00:13:31,620 --> 00:13:32,580
是的

371
00:13:32,580 --> 00:13:37,110
我认为这里的反转会很快发生

372
00:13:37,110 --> 00:13:39,889
接下来介绍我的最大赢家之一

373
00:13:39,889 --> 00:13:41,009
我最喜欢的公司之一

374
00:13:41,009 --> 00:13:41,470
是的

375
00:13:41,470 --> 00:13:44,389
这是我不常提及的公司

376
00:13:44,389 --> 00:13:45,820
因为

377
00:13:45,820 --> 00:13:48,100
我只是让他们按需行事

378
00:13:48,100 --> 00:13:49,620
这就是火箭实验室

379
00:13:49,620 --> 00:13:54,179
火箭实验室昨日财报发布，股价今日上涨6.5%

380
00:13:54,179 --> 00:13:56,139
接近每股100美元

381
00:13:56,139 --> 00:13:58,580
公司估值57.5亿美元

382
00:13:58,580 --> 00:13:59,620
是的

383
00:13:59,620 --> 00:14:01,720
确实很昂贵

384
00:14:02,590 --> 00:14:05,389
市场为何给予这家公司如此溢价

385
00:14:05,389 --> 00:14:06,490
非常简单

386
00:14:06,490 --> 00:14:10,029
与当前看到的数据无关

387
00:14:10,029 --> 00:14:11,860
尽管本季度表现良好

388
00:14:11,860 --> 00:14:12,220
收入

389
00:14:12,220 --> 00:14:13,440
增长63%

390
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:14,240
5%

391
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:15,139
200.

392
00:14:15,139 --> 00:14:18,940
3万美元超指引上限

393
00:14:18,940 --> 00:14:19,700
38.

394
00:14:19,700 --> 00:14:21,440
2%订单 backlog

395
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:22,220
2.

396
00:14:22,220 --> 00:14:23,019
2亿美元

397
00:14:23,019 --> 00:14:24,100
同比增长20.

398
00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:29,250
2%

399
00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:32,350
环比增长108%

400
00:14:32,350 --> 00:14:33,470
当前流动性超2亿美元

401
00:14:33,470 --> 00:14:34,269
那些井是什么

402
00:14:34,269 --> 00:14:34,909
三一

403
00:14:34,909 --> 00:14:38,409
在Q1预订了三一电子和速射任务

404
00:14:38,409 --> 00:14:42,070
公司历史上季度发射预订最高纪录

405
00:14:42,070 --> 00:14:42,849
五

406
00:14:42,849 --> 00:14:49,389
那个井是火箭实验室历史上最大合同中的专用中性发射签约数

407
00:14:49,389 --> 00:14:56,139
加上2029年前的三次电子飞行任务，至今已成功发射八次

408
00:14:56,139 --> 00:15:01,259
保持火箭实验室进度，有望超越去年21次发射纪录

409
00:15:01,259 --> 00:15:05,980
所以你今天没有为火箭实验室支付溢价

410
00:15:05,980 --> 00:15:08,899
你是在为火箭实验室支付一年后的溢价

411
00:15:08,899 --> 00:15:09,539
两年

412
00:15:09,539 --> 00:15:10,240
五年

413
00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:11,639
十年后

414
00:15:11,639 --> 00:15:13,740
因为这家公司的轨迹

415
00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:14,460
是的

416
00:15:14,460 --> 00:15:15,240
好的

417
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:16,019
陈词滥调

418
00:15:16,019 --> 00:15:18,080
但它确实是一枚火箭

419
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:18,519
好的

420
00:15:18,519 --> 00:15:21,230
这是一枚飞往月球的火箭

421
00:15:21,230 --> 00:15:21,870
他们已经拥有

422
00:15:21,870 --> 00:15:23,750
当然还有重大宣布

423
00:15:23,750 --> 00:15:27,999
并预订了三次专用速射发射，首任务

424
00:15:27,999 --> 00:15:29,379
不早于11月

425
00:15:29,379 --> 00:15:30,519
2026年

426
00:15:30,519 --> 00:15:36,299
他们被选中与雷恩合作，展示太空拦截器计划的先进技术

427
00:15:36,299 --> 00:15:39,289
金穹项目采购计划的一部分

428
00:15:39,289 --> 00:15:41,049
另一个模块

429
00:15:41,049 --> 00:15:42,370
增加了机器人技术

430
00:15:42,370 --> 00:15:46,309
运动控制和毅力号火星车及月球计划使用的航天器机构

431
00:15:46,309 --> 00:15:48,009
以及毅力号探测器和月球计划

432
00:15:48,009 --> 00:15:50,990
收购米尼瑞克已完成

433
00:15:50,990 --> 00:15:53,549
自覆盖以来，火箭实验室

434
00:15:53,549 --> 00:15:55,649
这家公司一直

435
00:15:55,649 --> 00:15:55,929
是的

436
00:15:55,929 --> 00:15:59,740
希望成为所有太空需求的一站式服务商

437
00:15:59,740 --> 00:16:04,370
确实这是我们正在发展的方向

438
00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:07,070
这也是你现在支付溢价的原因

439
00:16:07,070 --> 00:16:09,700
我已经持有火箭实验室股份

440
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,960
现在以每股100美元追涨合适吗

441
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,240
不，正如我之前所说

442
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,080
后悔之前没关注它

443
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,480
当它回落到50-60美元时

444
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,299
其实不久前

445
00:16:22,299 --> 00:16:24,299
但这是一个季度

446
00:16:24,299 --> 00:16:27,000
顺便说，速射仍按计划在Q4发射

447
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:27,779
我相信

448
00:16:27,779 --> 00:16:33,450
这是一家持续高效执行的公司

449
00:16:33,450 --> 00:16:36,039
成为火箭实验室并不容易

450
00:16:36,039 --> 00:16:40,318
成为SpaceX或蓝色起源同样不易

451
00:16:40,318 --> 00:16:44,120
但如果你能在这一行业中取得成功

452
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:44,919
是的没错

453
00:16:44,919 --> 00:16:50,750
五十五亿美元的市值在未来看起来会非常渺小

454
00:16:50,750 --> 00:16:51,889
尤其是现在

455
00:16:51,889 --> 00:16:53,509
我们不能与SpaceX相比

456
00:16:53,509 --> 00:16:57,460
但如果说SpaceX以超过千亿美元市值上市

457
00:16:57,460 --> 00:16:59,139
或者远超千亿美元

458
00:16:59,139 --> 00:17:00,740
当然现在它拥有SpaceX

459
00:17:04,430 --> 00:17:06,069
但你可以开始比较

460
00:17:06,069 --> 00:17:06,990
你可以开始看到

461
00:17:06,990 --> 00:17:07,470
好的

462
00:17:07,470 --> 00:17:09,609
几年后

463
00:17:09,849 --> 00:17:14,809
火箭实验室的所有航天系统发射业务

464
00:17:14,809 --> 00:17:15,779
是的

465
00:17:15,779 --> 00:17:20,940
也许未来它将成为数百亿美元的公司

466
00:17:20,940 --> 00:17:24,660
这始终是我们在看待火箭实验室时的愿景

467
00:17:24,660 --> 00:17:26,400
当时市值只有五亿美元

468
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,839
四亿美元市值稍低

469
00:17:28,839 --> 00:17:34,180
也许我们曾认为这是一家未来可能成为百亿美元公司

470
00:17:34,180 --> 00:17:35,970
我们已经 halfway 了

471
00:17:35,970 --> 00:17:37,329
我们已经 halfway 了

472
00:17:37,329 --> 00:17:37,970
是的

473
00:17:37,970 --> 00:17:40,289
这花了几年时间

474
00:17:40,289 --> 00:17:44,730
这不算差，我觉得我们还没到终点

475
00:17:44,730 --> 00:17:46,470
记住这是火箭实验室

476
00:17:46,470 --> 00:17:49,509
即使现在没有Neutron火箭

477
00:17:49,509 --> 00:17:52,348
当然这些都被计入了估值

478
00:17:52,839 --> 00:17:56,099
但这打开了许多大门

479
00:17:56,099 --> 00:17:57,819
接下来是珊瑚礁项目

480
00:17:57,819 --> 00:18:00,048
这里前景良好

481
00:18:00,048 --> 00:18:01,409
但还不够完美

482
00:18:01,409 --> 00:18:02,209
同时

483
00:18:02,209 --> 00:18:05,148
我甚至不提股票今日下跌了12%

484
00:18:05,148 --> 00:18:06,689
因为股票今年以来上涨了42%

485
00:18:06,689 --> 00:18:11,440
6% 并且上市后股价翻倍

486
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,140
我认为去年左右这家公司估值610亿美元

487
00:18:15,140 --> 00:18:16,539
当然尚未盈利

488
00:18:16,539 --> 00:18:20,619
但已是610亿美元公司，过去12个月营收

489
00:18:20,619 --> 00:18:23,630
62亿美元

490
00:18:23,630 --> 00:18:26,829
但营收预计翻倍以上

491
00:18:26,829 --> 00:18:29,809
那么到底发生了什么呢

492
00:18:29,809 --> 00:18:31,029
在本季度

493
00:18:31,029 --> 00:18:32,690
营收超20亿美元

494
00:18:32,690 --> 00:18:34,230
同比增长112%

495
00:18:34,230 --> 00:18:34,829
过去一年

496
00:18:34,829 --> 00:18:35,890
增长32%

497
00:18:35,890 --> 00:18:37,150
季度环比

498
00:18:37,150 --> 00:18:38,170
毫无问题

499
00:18:38,170 --> 00:18:40,888
我在这里提到的EA利润率

500
00:18:40,888 --> 00:18:41,749
五、六

501
00:18:41,749 --> 00:18:43,628
相比去年的百分之六十两，有所下降

502
00:18:43,628 --> 00:18:44,808
与去年同期相比

503
00:18:44,808 --> 00:18:46,929
你可以开始理解这些问题

504
00:18:46,929 --> 00:18:52,388
调整后营业利润仅百分之一点的利润率，而去年同期为百分之十七

505
00:18:52,388 --> 00:18:55,539
你现在明白这并不关乎

506
00:18:55,539 --> 00:18:55,839
好的

507
00:18:55,839 --> 00:19:00,689
这是一家年营收增长三倍的公司

508
00:19:00,689 --> 00:19:01,828
这不是问题

509
00:19:01,828 --> 00:19:03,269
这也不是问题

510
00:19:03,269 --> 00:19:07,109
他们拥有接近一百亿美元的营收 backlog

511
00:19:07,109 --> 00:19:08,130
他们预计将在未来

512
00:19:08,130 --> 00:19:08,549
三

513
00:19:08,549 --> 00:19:10,630
接下来的两年中六个百分点的 backlog

514
00:19:10,630 --> 00:19:11,190
四个月

515
00:19:11,190 --> 00:19:13,519
两年内百分之七十五

516
00:19:13,519 --> 00:19:16,759
在接下来的四年里他们再次提到

517
00:19:16,759 --> 00:19:18,519
Meta 两亿美元的承诺

518
00:19:18,519 --> 00:19:22,359
与Entropic长达十年的十亿美元部署协议

519
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:23,799
垂直领域Jane Street新增

520
00:19:23,799 --> 00:19:26,170
Q1季度新增六亿美元

521
00:19:26,170 --> 00:19:27,750
被列为新客户

522
00:19:27,750 --> 00:19:29,109
并且他们这里

523
00:19:29,109 --> 00:19:31,309
拥有十家超十亿美元的客户

524
00:19:31,309 --> 00:19:31,869
他们表示

525
00:19:31,869 --> 00:19:37,679
九成十领先的AI玩家海外依赖Core Weave

526
00:19:37,679 --> 00:19:39,199
这不是营收问题

527
00:19:39,199 --> 00:19:41,378
这是市场问题

528
00:19:41,378 --> 00:19:45,500
不认可这能成为优质业务

529
00:19:45,500 --> 00:19:47,259
当前市场认为

530
00:19:47,259 --> 00:19:48,640
你知道这有多好的 backlog

531
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:49,880
强劲的营收增长

532
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:50,869
没有问题

533
00:19:50,869 --> 00:19:51,549
我们听到

534
00:19:51,549 --> 00:19:55,130
我们看到这里GPU各代产品的涨价

535
00:19:55,130 --> 00:19:57,930
H100、H100、H200系列

536
00:19:57,930 --> 00:19:59,170
L系列

537
00:19:59,170 --> 00:20:03,009
短期产能已售罄无问题

538
00:20:03,009 --> 00:20:04,409
没有问题

539
00:20:04,409 --> 00:20:05,288
问题在于

540
00:20:05,288 --> 00:20:07,528
当前利润率

541
00:20:07,528 --> 00:20:08,288
利润率

542
00:20:08,288 --> 00:20:09,949
他们向我们说明了以下内容

543
00:20:09,949 --> 00:20:11,440
现在看

544
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,039
我们正在快速增长

545
00:20:13,039 --> 00:20:16,200
但也在快速扩张

546
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,579
这意味着短期将承受压力

547
00:20:19,579 --> 00:20:21,660
因此他们解释了四个步骤

548
00:20:21,660 --> 00:20:23,929
第一步已获得Power Shell

549
00:20:23,929 --> 00:20:25,648
第二步一到两个月

550
00:20:25,648 --> 00:20:26,249
配置完成

551
00:20:26,249 --> 00:20:27,108
因此没有收入

552
00:20:27,108 --> 00:20:30,849
因此新部署的贡献利润率为负

553
00:20:30,849 --> 00:20:32,890
第三个月收入开始

554
00:20:32,890 --> 00:20:36,839
管理层表示贡献利润率将恢复正常至二十多%

555
00:20:36,839 --> 00:20:38,339
随着安装基数增长

556
00:20:38,339 --> 00:20:42,869
每个新增部署的拖累应逐渐减少，这

557
00:20:42,869 --> 00:20:43,150
好的

558
00:20:43,150 --> 00:20:44,089
仔细想想

559
00:20:44,089 --> 00:20:47,049
总体来看与待交付订单相比是合理的

560
00:20:47,049 --> 00:20:50,329
相比他们希望达到的最大活跃功率

561
00:20:50,329 --> 00:20:52,069
目前规模相当小

562
00:20:52,069 --> 00:20:54,250
展望未来

563
00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:55,190
展望未来

564
00:20:55,190 --> 00:21:00,390
他们说利润率应开始缓慢改善

565
00:21:00,390 --> 00:21:03,130
但肯定在二季度、三季度、四季度

566
00:21:04,170 --> 00:21:06,400
如果这样就太好了

567
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,099
正如你在这里看到的

568
00:21:08,099 --> 00:21:09,339
全年资本支出

569
00:21:09,339 --> 00:21:11,700
最低端被上调至三十亿美元现在

570
00:21:11,700 --> 00:21:13,200
在31到35之间

571
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:14,369
没问题

572
00:21:14,369 --> 00:21:15,509
Q到利息

573
00:21:15,509 --> 00:21:18,150
六亿五千万至七亿三千万元

574
00:21:18,150 --> 00:21:20,558
纯利息支付

575
00:21:20,558 --> 00:21:21,898
好的

576
00:21:21,898 --> 00:21:24,759
如果我们开始看到利润率改善

577
00:21:24,759 --> 00:21:29,809
同时仍能保持年同比增长100%或接近

578
00:21:29,809 --> 00:21:34,710
我认为这家公司的叙事将迅速转变

579
00:21:34,710 --> 00:21:35,329
再次来看

580
00:21:35,329 --> 00:21:36,909
看这个数字

581
00:21:36,909 --> 00:21:38,909
这不是虚构的数字

582
00:21:38,909 --> 00:21:39,628
这不是

583
00:21:39,628 --> 00:21:40,009
哦

584
00:21:40,009 --> 00:21:43,818
我们拥有土地、能源和已签约电力

585
00:21:43,818 --> 00:21:45,798
这是99.4亿美元

586
00:21:45,798 --> 00:21:49,039
收入待交付订单

587
00:21:49,039 --> 00:21:55,089
这意味着如果他们能更快增长并加速建设这些巨型设施

588
00:21:55,089 --> 00:21:57,529
人们可能忘记这不是一蹴而就的

589
00:21:57,529 --> 00:21:58,190
只需一拍手

590
00:21:58,190 --> 00:22:02,430
GPU就会从天而降，巨型建筑瞬间出现

591
00:22:02,430 --> 00:22:04,319
像在模拟中一样

592
00:22:04,319 --> 00:22:06,400
需要时间来建设

593
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:11,309
但如果他们能建成并证明利润率稳定

594
00:22:11,309 --> 00:22:11,990
是的

595
00:22:11,990 --> 00:22:16,159
我认为这家拥有近百亿美元待交付订单的公司

596
00:22:16,159 --> 00:22:19,038
将会比现在价值更高

597
00:22:19,038 --> 00:22:20,798
接下来讨论另一家公司

598
00:22:20,798 --> 00:22:24,279
另一家公司昨日上涨了2.5%

599
00:22:24,279 --> 00:22:25,440
现在仅上涨4%

600
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:26,299
百分之三

601
00:22:26,299 --> 00:22:30,960
为什么在正式公布季度财报前股价就上涨了25%呢

602
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,279
在报告正式发布前

603
00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:37,130
发布的内容是英伟达

604
00:22:37,130 --> 00:22:38,569
某种合作伙伴关系

605
00:22:38,569 --> 00:22:39,690
因此股价上涨了

606
00:22:39,690 --> 00:22:42,759
当报告正式发布并仔细查看后

607
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:47,440
就能理解为何几乎失去了所有

608
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:48,880
在我们收益之后

609
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:54,210
现在过去12个月股价上涨了760%

610
00:22:54,210 --> 00:22:55,089
截至今年年底

611
00:22:55,089 --> 00:22:56,549
仍上涨38%

612
00:22:56,549 --> 00:22:57,190
接近三

613
00:22:57,190 --> 00:22:57,950
9%

614
00:22:57,950 --> 00:23:00,339
一家市值210亿美元的公司

615
00:23:00,339 --> 00:23:03,039
但如果我们看当前季度

616
00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:04,880
这不是一个好季度

617
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:05,359
好的

618
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,009
营收下降很正常

619
00:23:07,009 --> 00:23:11,469
因为他们正在从比特币挖矿业务转向AI云业务

620
00:23:11,469 --> 00:23:14,088
如今AI云业务仍非常微小

621
00:23:14,088 --> 00:23:16,390
收入约330万美元

622
00:23:16,390 --> 00:23:17,950
这是显著增长

623
00:23:17,950 --> 00:23:20,700
环比大幅增长

624
00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:22,740
但发生了什么

625
00:23:22,740 --> 00:23:23,859
为何会上涨

626
00:23:23,859 --> 00:23:26,769
这得益于英伟达合同

627
00:23:26,769 --> 00:23:29,299
因此约7亿美元

628
00:23:29,299 --> 00:23:34,279
电话会议提到7亿美元的ARR与34亿美元相关

629
00:23:34,279 --> 00:23:38,439
五年的英伟达AI云合同

630
00:23:38,439 --> 00:23:39,558
这还不是全部

631
00:23:39,558 --> 00:23:40,538
他们仍重申

632
00:23:40,538 --> 00:23:44,579
2026年退出率37亿美元

633
00:23:44,579 --> 00:23:46,400
这似乎很奇怪

634
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,750
还记得几个月前他们告诉我们的

635
00:23:50,750 --> 00:23:52,130
几个月前

636
00:23:52,130 --> 00:23:53,890
这是11月6日

637
00:23:53,890 --> 00:23:55,049
2025年

638
00:23:55,049 --> 00:23:57,170
他们当时告诉我们

639
00:23:57,170 --> 00:23:58,250
我们预计

640
00:23:58,250 --> 00:24:04,249
到2026年一季度AI云ARR将超5亿美元

641
00:24:04,249 --> 00:24:08,509
显然他们尚未接近这个数字

642
00:24:08,509 --> 00:24:13,430
而现在已过2026年一季度

643
00:24:13,430 --> 00:24:18,190
这就是为何要关注这里的数字三

644
00:24:18,190 --> 00:24:20,170
因为我们之前讨论过

645
00:24:20,170 --> 00:24:22,460
这里的数字三代表

646
00:24:22,460 --> 00:24:25,099
这是潜在ARR

647
00:24:25,099 --> 00:24:29,819
基于不列颠哥伦比亚站点约2.3万台GPU部署

648
00:24:29,819 --> 00:24:34,240
基于公司内部对GPU型号、利用率和定价的假设

649
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,660
这些数据反映潜在ARR

650
00:24:35,660 --> 00:24:37,880
尚未完全签署

651
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,339
无法保证一定能实现

652
00:24:41,339 --> 00:24:43,079
实际收入可能有所不同

653
00:24:43,079 --> 00:24:43,799
存在重大差异

654
00:24:43,799 --> 00:24:47,279
假设GPU按时交付并完成调试

655
00:24:47,279 --> 00:24:51,109
所以凯瑞很清楚这从未发生

656
00:24:51,109 --> 00:24:53,049
如果未能按时完成

657
00:24:53,049 --> 00:24:58,529
如何保证他们能在2026年底达成目标

658
00:24:58,529 --> 00:25:01,309
这是我在这里最关心的问题

659
00:25:01,309 --> 00:25:02,380
这样可以吗

660
00:25:02,380 --> 00:25:04,640
你这里列出了所有事项

661
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,599
已锁定五吉瓦电力供应

662
00:25:07,599 --> 00:25:08,259
三点

663
00:25:08,259 --> 00:25:11,099
一亿美元合同已确认无误

664
00:25:12,380 --> 00:25:16,039
但你未能按时完成期限

665
00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:19,059
目前你离目标还很远

666
00:25:19,059 --> 00:25:22,519
因为这五千万美元数字根本不存在

667
00:25:22,519 --> 00:25:24,759
关于英伟达方面

668
00:25:24,759 --> 00:25:25,960
一项交易

669
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,099
这对英伟达是重大胜利

670
00:25:28,099 --> 00:25:29,240
或并非重大胜利

671
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,138
这对英伟达是双赢

672
00:25:31,138 --> 00:25:33,378
并非真正体现信心

673
00:25:33,378 --> 00:25:34,919
英伟达与铁

674
00:25:34,919 --> 00:25:36,469
可能规模较小

675
00:25:36,469 --> 00:25:39,348
但不同于珊瑚礁或模糊协议

676
00:25:39,348 --> 00:25:40,589
因为在此处

677
00:25:40,589 --> 00:25:43,369
英伟达实际操作如下

678
00:25:43,369 --> 00:25:49,289
英伟达获得五年期购买权，可购铁公司最多三千万普通股

679
00:25:49,289 --> 00:25:53,529
行权价固定为每股70美元

680
00:25:53,529 --> 00:25:56,009
需满足条件并获批准

681
00:25:56,009 --> 00:26:00,740
这意味着如果未来我行

682
00:26:00,740 --> 00:26:03,599
我不确定每股150美元

683
00:26:03,599 --> 00:26:05,440
或类似价格对吧

684
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:06,039
因为确实

685
00:26:06,039 --> 00:26:07,460
项目成功推进

686
00:26:07,460 --> 00:26:13,000
根据协议已部署六十万台GPU

687
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,559
如果他们做到了

688
00:26:14,559 --> 00:26:17,539
当然铁公司股价将远超70美元

689
00:26:17,539 --> 00:26:22,130
而英伟达仍可按70美元购股

690
00:26:22,130 --> 00:26:25,150
而你看到的是每股150美元

691
00:26:25,150 --> 00:26:27,138
可能每股200美元

692
00:26:27,138 --> 00:26:29,219
但英伟达以70美元购入

693
00:26:29,219 --> 00:26:29,898
所以

694
00:26:29,898 --> 00:26:31,378
为何不接受此交易

695
00:26:31,378 --> 00:26:33,609
这完全合乎逻辑

696
00:26:33,609 --> 00:26:34,990
因此从纸面看

697
00:26:34,990 --> 00:26:35,990
这一切都很完美

698
00:26:35,990 --> 00:26:36,569
现在你已获得

699
00:26:36,569 --> 00:26:38,380
英伟达与我

700
00:26:38,380 --> 00:26:41,519
但这和其他的不一样

701
00:26:41,519 --> 00:26:42,920
根本不在一个档次

702
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,049
更何况你今天还有我租用的问题

703
00:26:46,049 --> 00:26:48,950
AI云业务真的不是

704
00:26:48,950 --> 00:26:50,829
应该在的位置上

705
00:26:50,829 --> 00:26:52,309
我知道有些人会说

706
00:26:52,309 --> 00:26:52,470
哦

707
00:26:52,470 --> 00:26:53,230
你只是这么说的

708
00:26:53,230 --> 00:26:55,950
因为你现在只拥有核心编织和星云

709
00:26:55,950 --> 00:26:57,630
我以前也拥有铁网

710
00:26:57,630 --> 00:26:59,769
但如果你回到我的勇气

711
00:26:59,769 --> 00:27:02,269
我谈过这些障碍

712
00:27:02,269 --> 00:27:06,690
我谈过这些必须每次阅读的小数字

713
00:27:06,690 --> 00:27:08,500
因为大数字很吸引人

714
00:27:08,500 --> 00:27:11,640
五亿美元每RQ一个结尾对吧

715
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:12,579
核心很棒

716
00:27:12,579 --> 00:27:13,299
三点

717
00:27:13,299 --> 00:27:14,829
六亿美元很棒

718
00:27:14,829 --> 00:27:17,549
但每次都要去阅读免责声明

719
00:27:17,549 --> 00:27:20,210
而免责声明完全没道理

720
00:27:20,210 --> 00:27:21,450
一次又一次

721
00:27:21,450 --> 00:27:24,740
那为什么我还卖掉股份

722
00:27:24,740 --> 00:27:26,940
因为我过度暴露在该行业

723
00:27:26,940 --> 00:27:29,880
尼思后来成为极好的投资

724
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,240
我的观点依旧如此

725
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:32,259
甚至珊瑚礁

726
00:27:32,259 --> 00:27:33,619
我仍然持有珊瑚礁

727
00:27:33,619 --> 00:27:36,670
但开始想是否需要它

728
00:27:36,670 --> 00:27:39,509
或许我想多买点元宇宙

729
00:27:39,509 --> 00:27:40,990
或许我想多买点索菲

730
00:27:40,990 --> 00:27:43,849
或许我想多买点Netflix或其他公司

731
00:27:43,849 --> 00:27:47,348
或者想买Shopify这家公司

732
00:27:47,348 --> 00:27:48,249
所以是的

733
00:27:48,249 --> 00:27:51,749
虽然我现在听起来非常怀疑

734
00:27:51,749 --> 00:27:52,559
不

735
00:27:52,559 --> 00:27:54,440
如果他们按时交付

736
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,240
应该没问题

737
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:57,619
这也押韵

738
00:27:57,619 --> 00:27:58,700
但如果他们不

739
00:27:58,700 --> 00:28:01,759
目前显然没有

740
00:28:02,009 --> 00:28:02,630
那么是的

741
00:28:02,630 --> 00:28:07,029
我不认为所有追捧和关注

742
00:28:07,029 --> 00:28:08,829
那个名字是应得的

743
00:28:08,829 --> 00:28:14,549
尤其是当我们看看其他表现良好的公司

744
00:28:14,549 --> 00:28:16,529
但你呢

745
00:28:16,529 --> 00:28:17,779
如果你持有铁网

746
00:28:17,779 --> 00:28:20,500
我真心希望它涨到两百美元

747
00:28:20,500 --> 00:28:22,660
部署了六十万台GPU

748
00:28:22,660 --> 00:28:25,819
英伟达以每股七十美元收购

749
00:28:25,819 --> 00:28:28,839
现在我们看到一家公司确实

750
00:28:28,839 --> 00:28:30,779
这不是像其他软件名称那样

751
00:28:30,779 --> 00:28:32,890
Shopify 仍上涨了18个百分点

752
00:28:32,890 --> 00:28:34,109
或接近19%的涨幅

753
00:28:34,109 --> 00:28:36,109
或过去12个月及今年以来的表现

754
00:28:36,109 --> 00:28:37,369
目前已下跌近2%

755
00:28:37,369 --> 00:28:38,339
9个百分点

756
00:28:38,339 --> 00:28:41,259
Shopify 绝非廉价公司

757
00:28:41,259 --> 00:28:44,759
DCF 分析文件现已上传至谷歌云端硬盘

758
00:28:44,759 --> 00:28:45,940
仍未就绪

759
00:28:45,940 --> 00:28:49,539
但很快将免费提供给大家

760
00:28:49,539 --> 00:28:52,140
市值达143.5亿美元

761
00:28:52,140 --> 00:28:54,400
市盈率107.5倍

762
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,539
前向市盈率107.5倍

763
00:28:55,539 --> 00:28:56,779
前向市盈率166.6倍

764
00:28:56,779 --> 00:28:58,240
这是非常非常令人担忧的数字

765
00:28:58,240 --> 00:28:58,759
但 Shopify

766
00:28:58,759 --> 00:29:01,599
这家公司会因AI而被颠覆吗

767
00:29:01,599 --> 00:29:03,690
还是将从中受益

768
00:29:03,690 --> 00:29:07,390
在我看来会从中受益

769
00:29:07,390 --> 00:29:10,009
这是一家由世界级运营团队领导的公司

770
00:29:10,009 --> 00:29:13,029
这是一家增长强劲且多风向助力的公司

771
00:29:13,029 --> 00:29:16,890
营收同比增长3%

772
00:29:16,890 --> 00:29:20,138
4%年同比增长

773
00:29:20,138 --> 00:29:21,398
GMV 上涨3%

774
00:29:21,398 --> 00:29:22,578
5%年同比增长

775
00:29:22,578 --> 00:29:23,519
自由现金流利润率15%

776
00:29:23,519 --> 00:29:24,338
毛利润年同比增长32%

777
00:29:24,338 --> 00:29:26,549
经营利润3.82亿美元

778
00:29:26,549 --> 00:29:27,829
月度复式营收2.12亿美元

779
00:29:27,829 --> 00:29:29,150
同比增长16%

780
00:29:29,150 --> 00:29:31,888
运营支出占比37%

781
00:29:31,888 --> 00:29:35,409
同比降低4个百分点

782
00:29:35,409 --> 00:29:37,480
哪些是亮点业务板块

783
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,539
商户解决方案年同比增长39%

784
00:29:39,539 --> 00:29:42,740
订阅解决方案营收增长21%

785
00:29:42,740 --> 00:29:44,980
订阅业务毛利率

786
00:29:44,980 --> 00:29:46,599
解决方案毛利率持平

787
00:29:46,599 --> 00:29:48,059
毛利率同样保持稳定

788
00:29:48,059 --> 00:29:51,059
Shopify支付

789
00:29:51,059 --> 00:29:52,400
是的

790
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:53,720
这

791
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,930
这不是仅能卖东西的网站

792
00:29:56,930 --> 00:29:58,089
Shopify支付系统

793
00:29:58,089 --> 00:29:58,410
是的

794
00:29:58,410 --> 00:29:58,569
它

795
00:29:58,569 --> 00:30:01,069
它不只是一个可以卖东西的网站

796
00:30:01,069 --> 00:30:03,179
系统整合非常完善

797
00:30:03,179 --> 00:30:04,219
Shopify支付

798
00:30:04,219 --> 00:30:06,930
GPV 年增长41%

799
00:30:06,930 --> 00:30:08,329
670亿美元

800
00:30:08,329 --> 00:30:09,029
已支付

801
00:30:09,029 --> 00:30:11,630
Gpv三十五亿美元

802
00:30:11,630 --> 00:30:14,750
同比增长五十九个百分点

803
00:30:14,750 --> 00:30:15,150
像

804
00:30:15,150 --> 00:30:15,549
我说

805
00:30:15,549 --> 00:30:19,069
我认为AI在这里是公司发展的强劲助力

806
00:30:19,069 --> 00:30:22,509
他们观察到每周活跃Sidekick店铺数量增长四倍

807
00:30:22,509 --> 00:30:25,990
第一季度创建了12000个定制应用

808
00:30:25,990 --> 00:30:30,009
约50%的Shopify流程使用Sidekick构建

809
00:30:30,009 --> 00:30:34,059
Psychic是帮助你经营业务的AI助手

810
00:30:34,059 --> 00:30:35,920
Shopify希望创造需求

811
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,730
而不仅仅是转化

812
00:30:37,730 --> 00:30:41,670
他们看到AI驱动的流量到Shopify店铺增长8倍

813
00:30:41,670 --> 00:30:45,029
AI搜索带来的订单量增长13倍

814
00:30:45,029 --> 00:30:47,269
目录转化率提升2倍

815
00:30:47,269 --> 00:30:47,609
由AI驱动

816
00:30:47,609 --> 00:30:48,269
AI搜索

817
00:30:48,269 --> 00:30:51,880
且三倍使用实时店铺活动的商家

818
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,779
记住如果你想要创业

819
00:30:54,779 --> 00:30:56,519
想将业务上线

820
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:58,539
或你的业务已存在

821
00:30:58,539 --> 00:31:03,539
但在AI时代这已不仅是SEO

822
00:31:03,539 --> 00:31:05,250
还包括地理定位

823
00:31:05,250 --> 00:31:07,269
你希望拓展业务

824
00:31:07,269 --> 00:31:10,250
或可能将现有业务转移至该公司

825
00:31:10,250 --> 00:31:12,490
该公司将全权为你处理

826
00:31:12,490 --> 00:31:15,559
确保你不被时代淘汰

827
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:16,799
你必须确保

828
00:31:16,799 --> 00:31:18,400
98%的AI

829
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,599
你将成为这一增长的一部分

830
00:31:20,599 --> 00:31:21,240
就在这里

831
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,710
你就是这些成果的参与者

832
00:31:23,710 --> 00:31:26,730
你不希望使用一个

833
00:31:26,730 --> 00:31:27,289
嗯

834
00:31:27,289 --> 00:31:29,779
我仍在专注于SEO

835
00:31:29,779 --> 00:31:32,980
当有人搜索我销售的商品时

836
00:31:32,980 --> 00:31:36,109
Chagpt、Gemini等

837
00:31:36,109 --> 00:31:37,190
我无法被发现

838
00:31:37,190 --> 00:31:38,369
我希望被看见

839
00:31:38,369 --> 00:31:43,789
并确保我的产品能在这些聊天界面中实现购物

840
00:31:43,789 --> 00:31:44,809
在我看来

841
00:31:44,809 --> 00:31:46,450
Shopify是这类公司之一

842
00:31:46,450 --> 00:31:46,789
好的

843
00:31:46,789 --> 00:31:47,609
我必须做出决定

844
00:31:47,609 --> 00:31:52,420
我是否愿意支付溢价并拥有这家公司

845
00:31:52,420 --> 00:31:56,900
还是等待市场调整

846
00:31:56,900 --> 00:31:58,599
这就是当前的困境

847
00:31:58,599 --> 00:32:01,240
这也是为何它被列入观察名单

848
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,440
因为卓越的产品

849
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:04,619
优秀的公司

850
00:32:04,619 --> 00:32:06,380
卓越的业绩记录

851
00:32:06,380 --> 00:32:08,880
管理出色，所以就是这样

852
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,799
价格必须正确

853
00:32:10,799 --> 00:32:12,640
可能接近正确

854
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,319
尤其是从看涨情景来看

855
00:32:14,319 --> 00:32:17,039
这将在DCF中再次体现

856
00:32:17,039 --> 00:32:19,900
但正如我过去几天所说

857
00:32:19,900 --> 00:32:23,460
可能是时候开始关注那些

858
00:32:23,460 --> 00:32:24,680
你知道的

859
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,980
这些是管理非常出色的公司

860
00:32:26,980 --> 00:32:28,339
他们掌握在优秀的人手中

861
00:32:28,339 --> 00:32:31,609
你不会为市场波动辗转反侧

862
00:32:31,609 --> 00:32:33,710
市场不认可这家公司或那家公司

863
00:32:33,710 --> 00:32:34,349
不

864
00:32:34,349 --> 00:32:38,430
当然，如果你不介意每天关注投资组合

865
00:32:38,430 --> 00:32:39,430
我需要卖出吗

866
00:32:39,430 --> 00:32:40,309
我需要持有吗

867
00:32:40,309 --> 00:32:40,509
它

868
00:32:40,509 --> 00:32:41,839
涨得是不是太快了

869
00:32:41,839 --> 00:32:42,859
发生了什么

870
00:32:42,859 --> 00:32:43,980
哪里有动能

871
00:32:43,980 --> 00:32:45,119
由你决定

872
00:32:45,119 --> 00:32:48,799
但市场现在确实存在巨大分歧

873
00:32:48,799 --> 00:32:50,960
优质公司被市场冷落

874
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:52,400
因为缺乏叙事逻辑

875
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,329
因为缺乏市场动能

876
00:32:54,329 --> 00:32:55,089
好的

877
00:32:55,089 --> 00:32:58,039
我认为这是一个好机会

878
00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:00,279
在下方评论区告诉我

879
00:33:00,279 --> 00:33:04,609
现在市场中还有哪些公司是优质机会

880
00:33:04,609 --> 00:33:07,230
访问Vial Lotti享25折优惠

881
00:33:07,230 --> 00:33:08,609
我们下次再见

882
00:33:08,609 --> 00:33:09,480
再见

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