野村-比亚迪(1211.HK)一季度：本土销售平淡但海外表现强劲-260429

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朋友们欢迎来到这一期深度解读

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今天呢咱们要聊聊一个绝对的重磅玩家

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新能源汽车巨头比亚迪

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最近呢

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野农证券发布了一份关于比亚迪

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2026年第一季度的财报分析

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说实话

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这份报告简直像是一部悬疑片

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特别有意思

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为什么呢

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因为它揭示了一个高度分裂的局面

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比亚迪在国内环境里可以说是遭遇了狂风暴雨

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但在海外市场呢却是一路狂奔

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突飞猛进

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那么这家行业巨头

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到底该怎么在这场惊涛骇浪里破局

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即将到来的技术大升级

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又会不会成为改变游戏规则的王牌

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别急

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咱们马上来拆解

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按照惯例

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咱们先快速过一下今天的核心路线图

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一共五个部分

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先看看比亚迪面临的双面市场

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接着直击痛点

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聊聊国内车市的需求冻结

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然后看看海外出口是怎么担起救主的

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第四部分

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咱们重点讲讲下半年王牌第二代刀片电池

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最后咱们再落回现实

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看看分析师给出的财务预测和最终估值

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好了

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咱们直接进入第一部分双面市场

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看看比亚迪截然不同的敬语

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咱们先来看一个极其夸张的数字

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1500亿

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没错人民币

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尽管现在市场环境确实充满了挑战

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但比尔蒂在2026年第一季度的总营收

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依然稳稳地砸下了1500亿

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这说明什么

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这绝对不是一家在走下坡路的公司

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这简直就是一艘在风浪里

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依然全速前进的商业巨舰

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不过呢如果你把这1500亿拆开来看

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里面的门道可就深了

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你看这简直就是一半海水一半火焰

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一边是什么

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是让人头疼的本土销售

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今年初的中国汽车市场

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就像是被突然冻住了一样

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需求疲软

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竞争简直是杀红了眼

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但你往另一边看

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海外市场却是另一番光景

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出口同增比率50.1%

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而且利润率还更高

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你可以这么理解

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B2D现在是在自家后院里

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打一场极其惨烈的防御战

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但同时呢又在海外市场大举进攻

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可以说是高歌猛进

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咱们紧接着进入第二部分

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本土需求冻结

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咱们得直面这个正在经历的国内车市寒冬

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咱们常说数据不会说谎

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看看这个断崖式的下跌趋势

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2026年第一季度

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比亚迪乘用车

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纯电车型的出货量大概是68.9万辆

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听起来不少对吧

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但你算算环比足足暴跌了48%

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同比也降了12%

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这真的是一个非常陡峭的跌幅

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他明明白白的告诉我们

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当整个大市场的需求突然结冰的时候

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即便是强如比亚迪这样的龙头老大

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也没法完全独善其身

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那么问题来了

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跌得这么狠

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到底是因为啥啊

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咱们梳理一下

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其实主要有两点

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第一就是刚才说的

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国内红海市场残酷的价格战和同质化竞争

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这个大家平时应该都有体会

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第二呢

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其实是

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因为比亚迪正处在一个必须经历的阵痛期

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打个比方

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这就好比你要去超市大采购

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买一堆新食材

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你是不是得先把家里冰箱里的旧东西清掉

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比亚迪现在就是在清2025款旧车型的库存

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给马上要来的新技术

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新产品腾位子

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这种清库存的操作

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短期内肯定会严重挤压业绩的

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那么在国内市场承压的时候

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是谁站了出来呢

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这就来到了咱们的第三部分

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海外出口破局

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看看他们是怎么在海外寻找增长引擎的

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大家感受一下这个爆发式的增长曲线

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第一季度

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比亚迪的海外销量直接冲到了32万辆

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朋友们32万辆啊

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这不仅仅是一个好看的数字

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他简直就是第一季度业绩的救星

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完美对冲了国内市场的疲软

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所以说啊现在出海对他们来说

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早就不是什么锦上添花的加分项了

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而是变成了结结实实的绝对核心增长引擎

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而且更有意思的在后面

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海外销量不仅冲高了规模

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更带来了真金白银的利润

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按理说国内打着价格战

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总体利润率肯定得掉吧

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结果你看一季度的整体毛利率

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居然从上个季度的17.4%

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逆势涨到了18.8%

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为什么

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就是因为海外卖的车平均售价

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也就是a asp要高得多

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这是一个非常明显的信号

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出海战略真的很赚钱

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当然了

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作为客观的解读

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咱们也得说

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全球化扩张绝对不是免费的午餐

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第一季度

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比亚迪产生了一笔高达21亿元

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人民币的财务费用

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这笔钱花哪儿了

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主要是外汇汇兑损失

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这就直接影响了他们的营业利润率

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这也给我们提了个醒

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当企业真正驶入国际化的深水区

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全球宏观金融环境的波动

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绝对是一个躲不开的风险

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好了搞清楚了现状

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咱们来看看未来第四部分

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刀片电池转机

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看看这个下半年的终极催化剂

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刚才咱们说比亚迪在清库存

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给新技术腾地方

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这个新技术就是分析师眼里

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打破国内销量兵器的大招

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第二代刀片电池

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他最大的杀手锏是什么呢

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超快充

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大家想啊

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现在买电车谁还整天盯着续航里程看

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大家的焦虑早就变成了充电焦虑

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对不对

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所以也轮证券非常明确地指出

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这种能急速补能的电池技术

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绝对是重新点燃国内买车热情的终极催化剂

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而且这绝对不是在画大饼市场

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可是拿着真金白银在投票

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举个最直观的例子

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作为首批搭载第二代刀片电池的车型之一

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送ultra EV上市不到一个月

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订单量直接突破了6万大关

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一个月6万辆

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这足以证明消费者对这个新信是有多兴奋了

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也给比亚迪接下来的一波新车发布

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打了一剂强心针

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咱们来顺一下这个时间线

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你看啊

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这完全是一个蓄力放大的过程

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3月份他们经公布了充电设施计划

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这就相当于在铺路建基建

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现在的第二季度

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汉EV泰希的超充版

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还有唐SUV会陆陆续续登场

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这是一个过渡和预热

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野农证券预测

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真正的大戏在下半年

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随着产能爬坡

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加上新车型全面铺开

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比亚迪在国内市场的需求

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预计会迎来一次真正意义上的大反转

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既然故事讲到这儿了

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咱们就进入最后一部分财务预测与估值

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看看分析师到底怎么下结论

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说了这么多

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资本市场到底买不买单

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非常有意思的是

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尽管第一季度开局挺难的

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又是需求冻结

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又是汇兑损失的

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但野挪证券依然非常头铁地

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维持了对比亚迪的买入评级

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不仅如此

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还给出了12.7港元的目标价

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这意味着什么

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这意味着在华尔街这些专业机构眼里

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眼前的阵痛根本不算事儿

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早就在预期之内了

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他们真正压住的是比亚迪

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海外市场高利润的持续性

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以及下半年靠技术驱动打出的强劲复苏

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俗话说得好

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投资有风险

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咱们为了保持客观

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必须要看看硬币的另一面

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下行风险

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分析师也指出了几个点

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比如国内的价格战如果继续无底线的打下去

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会不会彻底拖垮利润

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再比如海外扩张

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如果在某些地区碰到了政策壁垒或者贸易摩擦

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怎么办

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还有万一消费者对第二代刀片电池

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只有3分钟热度

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没能形成持续的购买力呢

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这些都是可能打断增长石头的变数

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大家心里得有个数好了

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以上就是比亚迪

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2026年第一季度的一幅全景图

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在今天这一期解读的最后

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我想留给大家一个问题

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面对国内汽车市场的严冬

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你觉得单凭这激增的全球出口能力

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加上即将亮出的第二代刀片电池

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这张技术底牌

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比亚迪真的能毫发无损的穿越周期吗

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下半年的市场会给我们答案

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感谢大家的收看

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咱们下期解读不见不散

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