【Couch Investor】这支股近期暴跌30%，我为什么决定不再补仓？

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大家好，大家好

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博乔，大家好

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欢迎回到今天的又一期视频

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这里我们将讨论多种语言

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因为我们将聊聊多邻国

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在这期视频中

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股价又下跌了两个点

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大约5%左右

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所以我们来谈谈

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现在是否还值得持有

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或许现在正是买入时机

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或许应该彻底抛售

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我们将讨论所有这些

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在这期视频核心

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同时我们也会谈到网飞和a股

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因为我现在正在拍摄这个

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在开盘前录制

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这些股票再次下跌

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究竟发生了什么

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又是这样

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又一家软件公司被抛售

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有人认为这与

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block之前曾是square的事实有关

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X y z sq

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杰克·多西的公司

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而他们正在裁员40%

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杰克称这是由于AI效率提升

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嗯

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有趣

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我不认同这一点，稍后解释

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但现在我们处于这样一个叙事中

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嗯

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自从citrini报告发布后

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AI将取代大量工作

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就业率将上升

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企业将因失业而倒闭

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人们不再消费

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等等

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等等

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等等

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好的

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这个叙事符合当前趋势

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让我们看看是否合理

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我们先从好消息开始

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也就是网飞部分

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关于网飞收购华纳兄弟的传闻正在结束

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他们几个月前曾提出报价

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随后派拉蒙介入

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派拉蒙给出了更优的报价

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现在根据合同条款，当华纳兄弟宣布

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好的

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他们有一个更优的提案

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Netflix有四天时间回应

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猜猜看

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Netflix拒绝提高对华纳兄弟的报价

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Netflix股票目前盘后交易下跌约10%

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盘前交易

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涨幅约在7%到8%之间

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如果市场上涨

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将上涨至两位数

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好的

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在我看来这些情景非常明确

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要么Netflix收购华纳兄弟

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要么支付28亿美元违约金给华纳兄弟

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这意味着他们可以再次回购股份

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因为股价已下跌约30%

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猜猜他们将在2026年怎么做

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将投资约20亿美元制作优质影视

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并扩展娱乐产品线

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符合我们的资本分配政策

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还将恢复股票回购计划

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我一开始就说过

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我认为这笔收购很合理

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发送给Netflix

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但如果他们需要溢价

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必须确保交易失败的原因是华纳兄弟而非Netflix

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而不是Netflix自身问题

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正是发生了这种情况

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现在

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Netflix股价目前约91美元

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略低于100日均线

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有人开玩笑说

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几年后Netflix可能再次收购派拉蒙和华纳兄弟

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大概以相同价格

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猜猜看

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Netflix

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是

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可能是行业中少数持续盈利的公司之一

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当然我是Netflix股东

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股东们当然高兴

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我将继续增持更多股份

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接下来讨论多邻国

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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他提到按钮会非常感激

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如果能进一步支持我

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请查看描述下方和评论区顶部的链接

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现在最好的建议

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或访问full.com/斜杠

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Goinvestor

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非常感谢

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所以多邻国过去一年已经下跌了68.7%

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过去一年下跌了7.7%

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自历史高点以来下跌了78%

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开盘前下跌24%，每股约90美元

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就这家公司的现状而言

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目前市值不足50亿美元

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仍是一家成长型企业

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且是一家盈利能力强的企业

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目前拥有大量现金储备

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实施4亿美元股票回购计划

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这家企业确实有值得肯定之处

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尤其是在当前价位

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但你可以明确不喜欢的是

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股票走势轨迹

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但这不是唯一问题

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毕竟

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这是需要重点关注的

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好的

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这只股票下跌了78%

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现在确实是一家糟糕的公司

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不过

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如果我们观察两点

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顺便说一下，第四季度及财年25年的财报

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第四季度全面超预期

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这并非问题所在

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财年25年仍是公司良好一年

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这不是问题

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问题出在26年及以后

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还有迹象显示

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确实存在迹象

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我们曾忽略这些

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这些就是相关迹象

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这是多邻国的社交关注度

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数据显示股价确实跟随这一趋势

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一旦这一指标开始回升

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或许策略正在见效

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多邻国的核心问题在于

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公司正在调整方向

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他们采用了全新战略

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新策略减少变现力度

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更注重学习体验

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更关注日活跃用户增长

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这是明智之举

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但目前尚未见效

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观察多日转化率

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已达40%

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相比过去两季度的3.7%显著提升

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这是积极信号

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负面因素在于这些

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可见公司仍保持30%增长

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在这种情况下

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日活跃用户上一季度增长了30%

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非常好

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不太好的部分是虽然增长速度明显放缓

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如果看月活跃用户实际上环比下降

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而同比现在仅增长了14%

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正如你所知

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这里最重要的指标是日活跃用户

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因为需要用户每天使用应用

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而不是每个月现在

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付费订阅用户同比增加了28.4%

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仍保持不错的增长

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顺便说一句

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付费用户占比日活跃用户的比例

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抱歉

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月活跃用户也小幅增长至9%以上

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总预订量

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也非常

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增长速度急剧放缓

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同比增长24%至330万

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六点

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八百万美元

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所以问题出在哪里

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嗯

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问题在于

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2026年预订量指引

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仅增长10-12%

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相比2025年的33%

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营收增长仅15-18%

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我只关注利润率

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25%的毛利率和69%的净利率

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日活跃用户增长率现在约20%

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为什么会这样呢

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为什么会这样

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因为他们要再次投资核心产品

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他们表示

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他们表示

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我引用他们的话

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这是一个尚未充分变现

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但现在已过度变现的应用

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好的

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又来了

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如果成功的话

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那就太好了

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因为我们知道变现机制有效

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非常明显

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正在持续有效

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过去几年日活跃用户持续增长

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过去几年付费订阅用户也稳步增加

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营收同样实现了增长

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所以它正在起作用

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这里的关键问题是增长出现了大幅放缓

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因此市场现在正在说

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好的

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你们在调整方向

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但存在重大风险

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假设你们专注于用户体验

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专注于学习效果部分

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并且确实开始提供更多服务

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比如说

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将Duolingo Max服务升级为Plus

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甚至免费用户可能增加日活用户但不会提升变现能力

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但如果日活用户增长不如预期

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这就是当前主要问题

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幸运的是

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我们还有几个季度时间观察是否奏效

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他们甚至公布了2028年目标达1亿日活用户

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这意味着他们需要保持约20%的年复合增长率

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在未来几年内

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国际象棋已取得巨大成功

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一年内日活用户突破700万

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目标覆盖全球10亿K12数学学习者

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音乐业务至今表现不佳

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但正在全面重启

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长期目标是更多日活用户等于更大品牌价值

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加上更高总订单和更低的用户变现成本

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接下来几个季度我们将看到结果

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如果未来两季度出现积极信号

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因为这非常容易追踪

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如果继续看到日活用户大幅下降且变现能力同步下滑

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则两者均不奏效

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今年可以这么说

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这是一个重启阶段

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总订单将下降

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等等

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但我们需要看到日活用户回升

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如果未能实现

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则存在更大问题 但就公司现状而言

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基于当前数据

240
00:09:42,049 --> 00:09:44,428
即使有这个指引

241
00:09:44,428 --> 00:09:49,440
我认为这非常可行

242
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,918
现在公司估值极低

243
00:09:51,918 --> 00:09:53,219
观察今日股价

244
00:09:53,219 --> 00:09:56,278
已回到2023年水平

245
00:09:56,278 --> 00:09:59,158
股票明显严重超卖

246
00:09:59,158 --> 00:09:59,980
目前

247
00:09:59,980 --> 00:10:02,759
但此次是公司重启

248
00:10:02,759 --> 00:10:05,000
我已经大幅减仓

249
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:05,980
仓位很小

250
00:10:05,980 --> 00:10:09,860
尽管我承认投入过快

251
00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:12,250
这是我一直强调的事情

252
00:10:12,250 --> 00:10:16,409
或许我应该在一百五十美元时就止损两百美元

253
00:10:16,409 --> 00:10:16,990
是的

254
00:10:16,990 --> 00:10:17,330
好的

255
00:10:17,330 --> 00:10:18,649
我无法回到过去

256
00:10:18,649 --> 00:10:20,889
我现在只能持仓不动

257
00:10:20,889 --> 00:10:22,788
而这正是我在做的事

258
00:10:22,788 --> 00:10:24,659
如果成功的话

259
00:10:24,659 --> 00:10:29,379
我认为股票在未来几个季度会大幅回升

260
00:10:29,379 --> 00:10:31,679
这也意味着这只股将死掉

261
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,830
接下来几个季度的资金

262
00:10:34,830 --> 00:10:36,190
这对我来说没问题

263
00:10:36,190 --> 00:10:37,649
我现在认为应该买入吗

264
00:10:37,649 --> 00:10:42,679
我觉得应该观望他们的策略效果

265
00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,200
无需急于行动

266
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:45,600
嗯

267
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,419
他们的策略已完全改变

268
00:10:47,419 --> 00:10:49,259
你有时间

269
00:10:49,259 --> 00:10:50,360
他们会给你时间

270
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,980
即使错过前十个点

271
00:10:52,980 --> 00:10:54,789
大约二十个百分点

272
00:10:54,789 --> 00:10:56,210
这不算大问题

273
00:10:56,210 --> 00:10:57,629
这是我一直在说的

274
00:10:57,629 --> 00:11:02,279
我已持空这个仓位相当一段时间

275
00:11:02,279 --> 00:11:03,600
人们不断问我

276
00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:04,399
你为什么不

277
00:11:04,399 --> 00:11:05,360
进行定投

278
00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:06,419
我说过同样的话

279
00:11:06,419 --> 00:11:07,519
一次又一次

280
00:11:07,519 --> 00:11:09,860
他们调整了策略

281
00:11:09,860 --> 00:11:12,590
为何现在要加仓

282
00:11:12,590 --> 00:11:15,070
只为降低成本

283
00:11:15,070 --> 00:11:16,940
平均成本没什么意义

284
00:11:16,940 --> 00:11:22,100
我很庆幸没再投入更多资金

285
00:11:22,100 --> 00:11:23,600
现在我只是在等待

286
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,740
能否止损换入其他标的

287
00:11:26,740 --> 00:11:28,120
这完全有可能

288
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,720
我不介意继续持有SOFI

289
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:33,259
每股十九美元价位

290
00:11:33,259 --> 00:11:34,419
但现阶段对我

291
00:11:34,419 --> 00:11:36,730
这是持有并观望

292
00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:39,149
接下来是股票代码

293
00:11:39,149 --> 00:11:41,649
XYZ股票昨日上涨5%

294
00:11:41,649 --> 00:11:43,129
又涨了十九点

295
00:11:43,129 --> 00:11:46,269
开盘前再涨4.4%

296
00:11:46,269 --> 00:11:48,289
为什么这样是好报告吗

297
00:11:48,289 --> 00:11:49,070
不

298
00:11:49,070 --> 00:11:51,370
只是普通财报

299
00:11:51,370 --> 00:11:53,068
但这不是重点

300
00:11:53,068 --> 00:11:54,849
这里的优势在于

301
00:11:54,849 --> 00:11:55,749
很遗憾地告诉大家

302
00:11:55,749 --> 00:11:57,509
这对股票来说是积极因素

303
00:11:57,509 --> 00:12:02,490
因为他们现在要裁员四成员工

304
00:12:02,490 --> 00:12:07,690
正如你所见，过去五年股价下跌了77%

305
00:12:07,690 --> 00:12:12,429
因此杰克·多西在X平台和股东信中提到

306
00:12:12,429 --> 00:12:14,929
我们将组织规模缩减近一半

307
00:12:14,929 --> 00:12:17,889
从超过万人缩减至六千人左右

308
00:12:17,889 --> 00:12:23,339
这意味着四千多人将被要求离职或进入协商

309
00:12:23,339 --> 00:12:23,958
等等

310
00:12:23,958 --> 00:12:24,379
等等

311
00:12:24,379 --> 00:12:24,879
等等

312
00:12:24,879 --> 00:12:32,009
现在我对此的疑问是，我有两个选择

313
00:12:32,009 --> 00:12:33,710
随着这一转变逐步推进

314
00:12:33,710 --> 00:12:37,090
要么坦诚面对现状并采取行动

315
00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:40,600
现在他之所以这么做

316
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:41,779
据他所说

317
00:12:41,779 --> 00:12:42,440
是因为

318
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:43,659
由于这个原因

319
00:12:43,659 --> 00:12:45,539
我们并非做出这个决定

320
00:12:45,539 --> 00:12:46,480
因为我们陷入困境

321
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:47,759
我们的业务依然强劲

322
00:12:47,759 --> 00:12:49,379
毛利率持续增长

323
00:12:49,379 --> 00:12:51,700
我们持续服务更多客户

324
00:12:51,700 --> 00:12:53,600
盈利能力正在改善

325
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,179
但情况发生了变化

326
00:12:55,179 --> 00:12:58,419
我们已经看到正在开发的智能工具

327
00:12:58,419 --> 00:13:03,359
与更小更扁平的团队结合使用

328
00:13:03,359 --> 00:13:07,720
正在创造全新的工作方式

329
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:09,620
这从根本上改变了企业运营的定义

330
00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:13,639
并且这一变化正在快速加速

331
00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:15,099
基本上是在说AI正在取代人类

332
00:13:15,099 --> 00:13:18,039
这里的员工们啊

333
00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:23,000
这就是他们将采用的表述方式

334
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,379
我对此的担忧是，这感觉像

335
00:13:26,379 --> 00:13:27,220
你看，Block公司

336
00:13:27,220 --> 00:13:29,220
我曾是Block的前股东

337
00:13:29,220 --> 00:13:32,899
直到后来

338
00:13:32,899 --> 00:13:35,159
实际上直到Twitter被出售

339
00:13:35,159 --> 00:13:37,759
因为猜猜杰克·多西也曾是Twitter的CEO

340
00:13:37,759 --> 00:13:38,360
也就是马斯克收购的那家公司

341
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,460
然后在那里裁员80%

342
00:13:42,460 --> 00:13:43,759
是的

343
00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:47,139
同一家公司

344
00:13:47,139 --> 00:13:50,059
像Block这样的公司为何需要万人规模

345
00:13:50,059 --> 00:13:50,360
对吧

346
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,289
我们之前也讨论过这个问题

347
00:13:52,289 --> 00:13:53,720
这实在说不通

348
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:54,200
返回

349
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:54,940
那是在什么时候

350
00:13:54,940 --> 00:13:56,279
大概是2021年左右

351
00:13:56,279 --> 00:14:00,240
杰克·多西花了大约三亿美元收购他的朋友

352
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,460
Jay Z的公司叫Tidal

353
00:14:02,460 --> 00:14:04,200
为什么没人知道

354
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:04,919
然后

355
00:14:04,919 --> 00:14:06,240
在2023年

356
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,149
他们已经完成了战略转型

357
00:14:08,149 --> 00:14:11,879
他们声称要设定绝对上限

358
00:14:11,879 --> 00:14:15,600
公司一万二千名员工想要更高效

359
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:17,639
更盈利而且

360
00:14:17,639 --> 00:14:20,409
裁员已经在2023年启动

361
00:14:20,409 --> 00:14:25,559
说他们不想再次缓慢裁员并不属实

362
00:14:25,559 --> 00:14:29,519
因为该团队早在2023年就开始行动

363
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:33,419
这又是另一家过度招聘的公司

364
00:14:33,419 --> 00:14:35,399
他们等待又等待

365
00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:36,820
而现在到了2026年

366
00:14:36,820 --> 00:14:39,970
他们以AI Sam Oldman为借口

367
00:14:39,970 --> 00:14:41,289
无论你喜欢与否

368
00:14:41,289 --> 00:14:42,870
Sam Oldman说这会发生

369
00:14:42,870 --> 00:14:45,578
存在大量AI炒作现象

370
00:14:45,578 --> 00:14:48,259
那些增长缓慢的公司

371
00:14:48,259 --> 00:14:49,839
可能陷入困境的公司

372
00:14:49,839 --> 00:14:51,698
会说

373
00:14:51,698 --> 00:14:52,918
我们正在裁员

374
00:14:52,918 --> 00:14:54,669
因为AI原因

375
00:14:54,669 --> 00:14:55,710
如果没有AI

376
00:14:55,710 --> 00:14:58,828
他们也会裁掉这些员工

377
00:14:58,828 --> 00:15:01,469
杰克·多西和董事会

378
00:15:01,469 --> 00:15:04,090
如果他们有诚信

379
00:15:04,090 --> 00:15:07,070
董事会两年前就应该解雇杰克·多西

380
00:15:07,070 --> 00:15:10,070
杰克·多西本应辞去CEO职务

381
00:15:10,070 --> 00:15:11,470
他是个伟大的创业者

382
00:15:11,470 --> 00:15:14,490
但却是公开上市公司的糟糕CEO

383
00:15:14,490 --> 00:15:15,870
对于任何人说

384
00:15:15,870 --> 00:15:16,370
哦

385
00:15:16,370 --> 00:15:18,149
这肯定与AI有关

386
00:15:18,149 --> 00:15:19,590
因为这是一家成长型公司

387
00:15:19,590 --> 00:15:21,409
这里哪里有成长型公司

388
00:15:21,409 --> 00:15:26,740
这家公司2025年营收仅增长0.3%

389
00:15:27,740 --> 00:15:30,389
再看看Cash App

390
00:15:30,389 --> 00:15:33,250
公司至关重要的资产

391
00:15:33,250 --> 00:15:36,029
观察Cash App过去

392
00:15:36,029 --> 00:15:38,269
差不多两年时间

393
00:15:38,269 --> 00:15:42,240
月活跃交易用户几乎未增长

394
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:43,559
我们停留在57

395
00:15:43,559 --> 00:15:46,379
四一二三四五

396
00:15:46,379 --> 00:15:49,399
连续六个季度

397
00:15:49,399 --> 00:15:54,509
Cash App月活跃交易用户完全持平

398
00:15:54,509 --> 00:15:56,250
这完全说不通

399
00:15:56,250 --> 00:15:58,250
这是管理层的责任

400
00:15:58,250 --> 00:16:02,230
他们本可多年前就改变

401
00:16:02,230 --> 00:16:04,490
但现在是2026年

402
00:16:04,490 --> 00:16:05,750
当叙事是...

403
00:16:05,750 --> 00:16:06,429
哦AI

404
00:16:06,429 --> 00:16:07,490
这个AI...

405
00:16:07,490 --> 00:16:07,850
是的

406
00:16:07,850 --> 00:16:08,230
好的

407
00:16:08,230 --> 00:16:09,230
让我们剪掉

408
00:16:09,230 --> 00:16:09,649
对啊

409
00:16:09,649 --> 00:16:11,149
这可能是正确的选择

410
00:16:11,149 --> 00:16:11,409
因为

411
00:16:11,409 --> 00:16:16,139
如果你能用40%更少的员工产出这些数据

412
00:16:16,139 --> 00:16:19,120
那么增长将从这里开始加速

413
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,730
但这是他们之前本可以做到的

414
00:16:21,730 --> 00:16:23,419
但他们没做

415
00:16:23,419 --> 00:16:27,240
所以杰克可以继续重复同样的话

416
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:27,860
不过嘿

417
00:16:27,860 --> 00:16:32,129
对于关注公司及他过去几年动向的人来说

418
00:16:32,129 --> 00:16:35,789
我意思是，我们知道他花更多时间在非洲丛林

419
00:16:35,789 --> 00:16:41,659
谈论比特币和抽好东西，而不是关注股东回报

420
00:16:41,659 --> 00:16:47,600
我为仍持有股份的股东看到股价上涨感到高兴

421
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,759
希望你还能从这赚钱

422
00:16:49,759 --> 00:16:52,929
因为他们拥有的资产相当优质

423
00:16:52,929 --> 00:16:55,809
这就是我过去几年的问题

424
00:16:55,809 --> 00:16:58,549
如果换其他人接替他

425
00:16:58,549 --> 00:17:00,330
我觉得Square（抱歉）

426
00:17:00,330 --> 00:17:03,009
Block会做得好得多

427
00:17:03,009 --> 00:17:06,249
转到Core，目前Core下跌12%

428
00:17:06,249 --> 00:17:09,609
当然拖累所有其他Neo Cloud玩家

429
00:17:09,609 --> 00:17:11,150
Nebusis跌5%

430
00:17:11,150 --> 00:17:12,700
Iran（可能指公司名）跌3%

431
00:17:12,700 --> 00:17:13,660
Scientific跌3%

432
00:17:13,660 --> 00:17:14,059
等等

433
00:17:14,059 --> 00:17:14,519
等等

434
00:17:14,519 --> 00:17:16,039
这里没什么新消息

435
00:17:16,039 --> 00:17:18,200
我们略低于50日均线

436
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,069
在85.80美元附近

437
00:17:21,069 --> 00:17:24,650
昨天收盘97.60美元

438
00:17:24,650 --> 00:17:26,319
这里发生了什么

439
00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:26,660
嗯

440
00:17:26,660 --> 00:17:27,500
这里发生了什么

441
00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:28,859
如果你错过了直播

442
00:17:28,859 --> 00:17:33,619
昨天Core又交出一个好季度和年度收尾

443
00:17:33,619 --> 00:17:35,838
财年2025亮点

444
00:17:35,838 --> 00:17:39,618
营收增长168%至51亿美元

445
00:17:39,618 --> 00:17:40,719
营收 backlog

446
00:17:40,719 --> 00:17:41,558
66.

447
00:17:41,558 --> 00:17:42,439
80亿美元

448
00:17:42,439 --> 00:17:44,019
资本支出14.

449
00:17:44,019 --> 00:17:44,839
90亿美元

450
00:17:44,839 --> 00:17:47,740
其中大部分在Q4支出

451
00:17:47,740 --> 00:17:50,039
我刚才说的三十一亿美元

452
00:17:50,039 --> 00:17:51,519
六成利润率

453
00:17:51,519 --> 00:17:54,700
调整后营业利润达六亿六千六百万

454
00:17:54,700 --> 00:17:57,920
调整后净亏损六亿零六百万美元

455
00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,219
至于第四季度

456
00:17:59,219 --> 00:18:01,439
这就是结果所在

457
00:18:01,439 --> 00:18:04,319
所以问题出在哪里呢

458
00:18:04,319 --> 00:18:06,240
这里其实没多少问题

459
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:06,740
顺便说一句

460
00:18:06,740 --> 00:18:10,420
收入 backlog 增加了约十一亿美元

461
00:18:10,420 --> 00:18:11,700
环比来看

462
00:18:11,700 --> 00:18:14,480
我们可以看到六十亿六千八百万美元中的四十个百分点

463
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:19,679
背录中的四十亿二千八百万美元将在未来两

464
00:18:19,679 --> 00:18:22,029
四个月确认

465
00:18:22,029 --> 00:18:22,910
指引

466
00:18:22,910 --> 00:18:27,049
我看到有些数据显示一季度指引小幅不及预期

467
00:18:27,049 --> 00:18:28,349
市场预期约两

468
00:18:28,349 --> 00:18:29,630
二十亿美元左右

469
00:18:29,630 --> 00:18:35,730
一季度收入预计在十九亿至二十亿美元之间

470
00:18:35,730 --> 00:18:36,109
他们表示

471
00:18:36,109 --> 00:18:39,549
Coriff 将部署六至七亿美元基建

472
00:18:39,549 --> 00:18:43,539
这意味着折旧和数据中心成本已计入利润表

473
00:18:43,539 --> 00:18:49,869
在相关收入到账前，美中不足的是二季度至四季度

474
00:18:49,869 --> 00:18:52,549
我们将看到利润率提升

475
00:18:52,549 --> 00:18:57,199
他们预计年底实现低双位数利润率

476
00:18:57,199 --> 00:18:58,598
至于全年

477
00:18:58,598 --> 00:18:59,999
Guitwenty二十六年

478
00:18:59,999 --> 00:19:02,459
收入指引十二至十三亿美元

479
00:19:02,459 --> 00:19:04,318
同比增长百分之百四十

480
00:19:04,318 --> 00:19:10,449
年资本支出三十至三十五亿美元，为二零二五年两倍

481
00:19:10,449 --> 00:19:12,028
这再次合理

482
00:19:12,028 --> 00:19:16,828
必须在需要大量投入的领域持续扩张

483
00:19:16,828 --> 00:19:20,470
当然我们还要讨论市场为何可能不看好

484
00:19:20,470 --> 00:19:21,469
目前

485
00:19:21,469 --> 00:19:26,299
二零二六年退出运行率年化十七至十九亿美元

486
00:19:26,299 --> 00:19:30,980
二零二七年退出运行率超三十亿美元

487
00:19:30,980 --> 00:19:35,099
二零二六年活跃电力目标一点七吉瓦

488
00:19:35,099 --> 00:19:37,380
是当前的两倍

489
00:19:37,380 --> 00:19:41,970
长期调整后营业利润率在二十五至三十个百分点

490
00:19:41,970 --> 00:19:48,190
他们表示二零二六年产能几乎全部售出，且已有深入洽谈

491
00:19:48,190 --> 00:19:50,309
关于二零二七年分配

492
00:19:50,309 --> 00:19:53,179
所以总结起来就是

493
00:19:53,179 --> 00:19:53,759
目前

494
00:19:53,759 --> 00:19:56,378
这是一家增长极快的公司

495
00:19:56,378 --> 00:19:56,818
没错

496
00:19:56,818 --> 00:19:59,750
要快速扩张必须大量投入资金

497
00:19:59,750 --> 00:20:02,130
他们有英伟达的支持

498
00:20:02,130 --> 00:20:04,990
但指引中未提及一点

499
00:20:04,990 --> 00:20:09,079
是向第三方授权专有云栈

500
00:20:09,079 --> 00:20:12,509
预计二零二六年开始贡献

501
00:20:12,509 --> 00:20:17,049
并在2027年及以后变得更加有意义

502
00:20:17,049 --> 00:20:20,769
我认为英伟达已经在测试这个方案了

503
00:20:20,769 --> 00:20:22,569
那么这里的问题到底出在哪里

504
00:20:22,569 --> 00:20:23,500
又是这样

505
00:20:23,500 --> 00:20:24,700
大概应该是肯定的

506
00:20:24,700 --> 00:20:26,559
他们将投入大量资金

507
00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:29,960
需要烧钱来换取未来的现金流

508
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,579
未来仍是未知数

509
00:20:32,579 --> 00:20:35,589
现在他们会不会花得太多

510
00:20:35,589 --> 00:20:38,549
能否及时收回这笔钱

511
00:20:38,549 --> 00:20:40,950
会不会出现更多延误

512
00:20:40,950 --> 00:20:42,809
毕竟他们可能会有延误

513
00:20:42,809 --> 00:20:45,579
这意味着收入确认时间会推迟

514
00:20:45,579 --> 00:20:47,119
但有些东西永远不会延迟

515
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,059
就是利息支付

516
00:20:49,059 --> 00:20:50,009
目前来看

517
00:20:50,009 --> 00:20:52,230
公司状况正在改善

518
00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:53,230
仅从市场角度

519
00:20:53,230 --> 00:20:54,109
如你所见

520
00:20:54,109 --> 00:20:54,930
正如我将展示的

521
00:20:54,930 --> 00:20:58,440
目前市场依然非常谨慎

522
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,220
市场真的非常不看好

523
00:21:00,220 --> 00:21:02,039
但这似乎不合逻辑

524
00:21:02,039 --> 00:21:04,250
我们在昨天的视频中讨论过

525
00:21:04,250 --> 00:21:06,369
对于只看标题的观众

526
00:21:06,369 --> 00:21:08,049
这就是反讽

527
00:21:08,049 --> 00:21:09,970
昨天我们谈到的事实是

528
00:21:09,970 --> 00:21:10,589
好的

529
00:21:10,589 --> 00:21:12,500
人工智能并非真实存在

530
00:21:12,500 --> 00:21:15,240
我们不认同这些公司过度支出

531
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:16,559
结果尚未显现

532
00:21:16,559 --> 00:21:17,539
另一方面

533
00:21:17,539 --> 00:21:18,759
你还需要考虑

534
00:21:18,759 --> 00:21:21,259
人工智能将摧毁所有行业

535
00:21:21,259 --> 00:21:22,740
取代所有工作岗位

536
00:21:22,740 --> 00:21:25,689
到底是A还是B

537
00:21:25,689 --> 00:21:28,709
正如我说市场毫无逻辑

538
00:21:28,709 --> 00:21:34,299
所以我才用这个无厘头标题说'无股可投'

539
00:21:34,299 --> 00:21:37,049
因为似乎无法获利

540
00:21:37,049 --> 00:21:39,829
除非投资沃尔玛

541
00:21:39,829 --> 00:21:40,349
Costco

542
00:21:40,349 --> 00:21:40,730
是的

543
00:21:40,730 --> 00:21:43,599
部分能源企业表现极佳

544
00:21:43,599 --> 00:21:46,079
韩国股市表现亮眼

545
00:21:46,079 --> 00:21:47,759
确实存在一些

546
00:21:47,759 --> 00:21:50,960
价值股跑赢科技股

547
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:51,779
肯定如此

548
00:21:51,779 --> 00:21:53,400
但再想想

549
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,279
我是否愿意支付40-50倍

550
00:21:55,279 --> 00:21:58,670
市盈率给增长2-5%的公司

551
00:21:58,670 --> 00:21:59,890
或者我愿意支付

552
00:21:59,890 --> 00:22:01,630
我不知道两五次向前

553
00:22:01,630 --> 00:22:03,049
英伟达的收益

554
00:22:03,049 --> 00:22:03,490
或者低

555
00:22:03,490 --> 00:22:05,440
二十倍于emetra

556
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,359
现在二十倍

557
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,059
像谷歌这样的公司

558
00:22:09,059 --> 00:22:09,839
这是一个问题

559
00:22:09,839 --> 00:22:12,000
你必须问自己是什么类型的投资者

560
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:13,180
但目前是的

561
00:22:13,180 --> 00:22:14,819
作为成长型投资者

562
00:22:14,819 --> 00:22:15,200
假设说

563
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,900
长期成长型投资者

564
00:22:16,900 --> 00:22:18,680
这是一个奇怪的市场

565
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,819
这是一个奇怪的市场

566
00:22:20,819 --> 00:22:22,319
但当你观察事物时

567
00:22:22,319 --> 00:22:24,559
珊瑚礁今年以来大幅上涨

568
00:22:24,559 --> 00:22:26,480
尼伊斯今年以来表现良好

569
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,789
因此看来我们开始进入选股者市场

570
00:22:30,789 --> 00:22:31,890
我喜欢这种方式

571
00:22:31,890 --> 00:22:33,950
而不是所有东西同时上涨

572
00:22:33,950 --> 00:22:36,069
或者所有东西同时下跌

573
00:22:36,069 --> 00:22:40,839
尽管目前的叙事是每个软件科技AI公司

574
00:22:40,839 --> 00:22:43,160
现在不应该上涨

575
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,480
总而言之这就是我在这段视频中的全部内容

576
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,960
告诉我你对这些财报的看法

577
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,839
在下方评论区讨论市场下跌

578
00:22:50,839 --> 00:22:52,420
祝你周末愉快

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