BV1CmdnBTEbT · 投资知识分享1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,800 大家好 2 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:01,940 今天这一期 3 00:00:01,940 --> 00:00:05,969 我想和大家聊一个很多人都踩过坑的问题 4 00:00:05,969 --> 00:00:09,169 当你手里有一笔钱想做长期投资 5 00:00:09,169 --> 00:00:10,679 你应该买什么 6 00:00:10,679 --> 00:00:13,359 很多人的第一反应是去买基金 7 00:00:13,359 --> 00:00:15,449 或者买理财型保险 8 00:00:15,449 --> 00:00:17,190 但今天我想告诉你 9 00:00:17,190 --> 00:00:21,370 这两样东西很可能都不是最好的选择 10 00:00:21,449 --> 00:00:23,649 我先把核心结论告诉你 11 00:00:23,649 --> 00:00:25,079 只有三句话 12 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:25,899 第一句 13 00:00:25,899 --> 00:00:30,059 理财保险和基金帮你买的还是股票和债券 14 00:00:30,059 --> 00:00:31,820 只是中间多了一层 15 00:00:31,820 --> 00:00:34,600 两层甚至三层的费用损耗 16 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:35,579 第二句 17 00:00:35,579 --> 00:00:38,359 没有任何基金经理能向你承诺 18 00:00:38,359 --> 00:00:40,159 一个具体的回报率 19 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:41,229 第三句 20 00:00:41,229 --> 00:00:42,890 如果你看对了方向 21 00:00:42,890 --> 00:00:46,159 直接买ETF或者正股赚的更多 22 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:47,659 如果你看错了方向 23 00:00:47,659 --> 00:00:48,899 买基金一样亏 24 00:00:48,899 --> 00:00:50,200 而且亏得更多 25 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,070 因为还要多付费用 26 00:00:52,070 --> 00:00:55,990 下面我用三层逻辑把这件事展开讲清楚 27 00:00:57,030 --> 00:00:59,259 我们先做一次穿透分析 28 00:00:59,259 --> 00:01:00,780 你买理财保险 29 00:01:00,780 --> 00:01:04,180 保险公司拿你的钱去买一篮子基金 30 00:01:04,180 --> 00:01:05,299 你买基金 31 00:01:05,299 --> 00:01:09,448 基金经理拿你的钱去买一篮子股票和债券 32 00:01:09,448 --> 00:01:11,948 你直接买正股或者ETF 33 00:01:11,948 --> 00:01:14,329 你持有的就是股票本身 34 00:01:14,329 --> 00:01:18,849 所以你会发现底层资产其实是完全一样的东西 35 00:01:18,849 --> 00:01:21,950 区别只在于中间隔了几层代理人 36 00:01:21,950 --> 00:01:23,409 每一层都要收费 37 00:01:23,409 --> 00:01:24,659 都要抽成 38 00:01:24,659 --> 00:01:26,700 理财保险是三层费用 39 00:01:26,700 --> 00:01:28,140 基金是两层费用 40 00:01:28,140 --> 00:01:30,599 直接买正股或ETF只有一层 41 00:01:30,599 --> 00:01:32,109 而且费用极低 42 00:01:32,109 --> 00:01:33,370 更关键的是 43 00:01:33,370 --> 00:01:36,150 基金的持仓是公开可查的 44 00:01:36,150 --> 00:01:39,189 你完全可以看看基金经理买了什么 45 00:01:39,189 --> 00:01:40,590 然后自己去买 46 00:01:40,590 --> 00:01:44,019 完全不需要付中间那几层的费用 47 00:01:44,019 --> 00:01:46,400 我们来看一下香港市场上 48 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,340 主动型基金的真实费用 49 00:01:48,340 --> 00:01:51,780 结构管理费也叫年度开支比率 50 00:01:51,780 --> 00:01:54,260 通常是每年1%到3% 51 00:01:54,260 --> 00:01:57,079 这是每年都要扣的申购费 52 00:01:57,079 --> 00:01:59,719 也就是你买入时一次性付的费用 53 00:01:59,719 --> 00:02:02,689 通常是1.5%到5% 54 00:02:02,689 --> 00:02:03,709 赎回费 55 00:02:03,709 --> 00:02:05,469 也就是你卖出时的费用 56 00:02:05,469 --> 00:02:06,730 持有时间越短 57 00:02:06,730 --> 00:02:08,000 收得越多 58 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,300 还有一项很多人不知道的费用叫韦庸 59 00:02:11,300 --> 00:02:14,780 就是基金公司把管理费的50%到60 60 00:02:14,780 --> 00:02:16,699 悄悄返给分销渠道 61 00:02:16,699 --> 00:02:19,020 比如银行或者保险公司 62 00:02:19,020 --> 00:02:21,039 这笔钱你看不到 63 00:02:21,039 --> 00:02:22,430 但你再付 64 00:02:22,430 --> 00:02:23,509 相比之下 65 00:02:23,509 --> 00:02:25,110 主流宽基ETF 66 00:02:25,110 --> 00:02:27,969 比如追踪标普500指数的ETF 67 00:02:27,969 --> 00:02:30,379 年费低至0.03% 68 00:02:30,379 --> 00:02:32,819 也就是说你投1万美金 69 00:02:32,819 --> 00:02:36,060 一年只需要交三美金的管理费 70 00:02:36,060 --> 00:02:37,479 理财型保险 71 00:02:40,900 --> 00:02:43,319 保险费用结构更复杂 72 00:02:43,319 --> 00:02:45,659 第一层是保单平台费 73 00:02:45,659 --> 00:02:48,409 按你的保单价值每年扣取 74 00:02:48,409 --> 00:02:50,930 第二层是保险保障成本 75 00:02:50,930 --> 00:02:53,189 也就是gay你的年龄越大 76 00:02:53,189 --> 00:02:54,778 这笔费用越贵 77 00:02:54,778 --> 00:02:57,579 第三层是底层基金的管理费 78 00:02:57,579 --> 00:03:00,509 通常又是每年1%到3% 79 00:03:00,509 --> 00:03:04,810 香港证监会之所以强制要求披露总保单费用 80 00:03:04,810 --> 00:03:08,289 就是让你看清楚这个产品到底有多贵 81 00:03:08,289 --> 00:03:10,069 在2015年之前 82 00:03:10,069 --> 00:03:13,050 香港的投连险销售非常混乱 83 00:03:13,050 --> 00:03:16,409 代理人可以把整个保单生命期最长 84 00:03:16,409 --> 00:03:19,550 30年的佣金一次性预支出来 85 00:03:19,550 --> 00:03:23,189 后来监管改革强制把佣金分8年摊销 86 00:03:23,189 --> 00:03:26,579 结果当季销量直接下跌了42% 87 00:03:26,579 --> 00:03:28,778 这个数字说明什么 88 00:03:28,778 --> 00:03:30,378 说明这类产品 89 00:03:30,378 --> 00:03:33,278 更多是为了代理人的佣金而设计的 90 00:03:33,278 --> 00:03:35,610 而不是为了你的利益 91 00:03:35,610 --> 00:03:40,338 vanguard的创始人约翰伯格曾经做过一个计算 92 00:03:40,338 --> 00:03:43,859 把1000美金按每年8%的回报 93 00:03:43,859 --> 00:03:45,509 投资65年 94 00:03:45,509 --> 00:03:46,889 如果没有费用 95 00:03:46,889 --> 00:03:50,099 最终可以增长到大约16万美金 96 00:03:50,099 --> 00:03:53,099 但如果每年收取2.5%的费用 97 00:03:53,099 --> 00:03:56,129 最终只剩下大约3万4000美金 98 00:03:56,129 --> 00:03:59,539 费用吞掉了你79%的收益 99 00:03:59,539 --> 00:04:00,860 还有一组数据 100 00:04:00,860 --> 00:04:03,139 如果你的年费从0.5% 101 00:04:03,139 --> 00:04:04,879 上升到1.5% 102 00:04:04,879 --> 00:04:06,930 看起来只差了一个百分点 103 00:04:06,930 --> 00:04:08,289 但35年后 104 00:04:08,289 --> 00:04:11,459 你的退休金会缩水将近30% 105 00:04:11,459 --> 00:04:14,239 被动投资组合60年下来 106 00:04:14,239 --> 00:04:17,850 费用大约占出十本金的15% 107 00:04:17,850 --> 00:04:19,769 而主动基金的费用 108 00:04:19,769 --> 00:04:22,889 会占到初始本金的55% 109 00:04:22,889 --> 00:04:26,269 费用的复利和收益的复利一样无情 110 00:04:26,269 --> 00:04:28,350 只是方向相反 111 00:04:28,350 --> 00:04:31,009 有人会说基金经理很专业 112 00:04:31,009 --> 00:04:32,829 他能帮我跑赢市场 113 00:04:32,829 --> 00:04:34,480 我们来看数据 114 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,560 根据标普道琼斯指数 115 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,120 每年发布的全球基金业绩报告 116 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:40,350 2024年 117 00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:43,709 美国大盘主动基金中有65% 118 00:04:43,709 --> 00:04:45,899 跑输了标普500指数 119 00:04:45,899 --> 00:04:50,060 而过去24年的平均水平是64% 120 00:04:50,060 --> 00:04:52,040 跑输时间越长 121 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,449 能跑赢指数的基金越少 122 00:04:54,449 --> 00:04:56,209 一年是65% 123 00:04:56,209 --> 00:04:58,730 跑输3年是73% 124 00:04:58,730 --> 00:05:00,449 5年是80% 125 00:05:00,449 --> 00:05:00,850 四 126 00:05:00,850 --> 00:05:02,980 10年是86% 127 00:05:02,980 --> 00:05:04,839 15年是90% 128 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,220 20年高达92% 129 00:05:07,220 --> 00:05:10,920 而且这些数字还没有计算幸存者偏差 130 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,500 已经清盘或者合并掉的基金 131 00:05:13,500 --> 00:05:16,360 根本没有出现在这份统计里 132 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,199 所谓幸存者偏差 133 00:05:18,199 --> 00:05:20,740 就是你只看到了还活着的基金 134 00:05:20,740 --> 00:05:23,069 看不到那些已经死掉的 135 00:05:23,069 --> 00:05:24,029 Dimensional fund 136 00:05:24,029 --> 00:05:25,149 advisors的研究 137 00:05:25,149 --> 00:05:28,189 覆盖了1991年到2020年之间 138 00:05:28,189 --> 00:05:30,850 所有美国股票主动型基金 139 00:05:30,850 --> 00:05:33,149 如果直统计活下来的基金 140 00:05:33,149 --> 00:05:37,470 中位数年化超额收益是负的0.84% 141 00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:41,529 如果把已经清盘或者被合并掉的基金也算进去 142 00:05:41,529 --> 00:05:45,629 中位数年化超额收益是负的1.44% 143 00:05:45,629 --> 00:05:48,550 你在广告上看到的那些明星基金 144 00:05:48,550 --> 00:05:52,129 已经是被市场筛选过的幸存者样本了 145 00:05:52,129 --> 00:05:56,298 那些业绩差的基金早就悄悄消失了 146 00:05:56,298 --> 00:06:00,019 现在我们把这三层逻辑串在一起走一遍 147 00:06:00,019 --> 00:06:01,600 推理第一步 148 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,600 基金无法向你承诺具体的回报率 149 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:06,860 监管也不允许他们承诺 150 00:06:06,860 --> 00:06:07,720 第二步 151 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,300 你之所以相信他能帮你赚钱 152 00:06:10,300 --> 00:06:14,038 本质上是相信他所持有的那些资产会长 153 00:06:14,038 --> 00:06:15,019 第三步 154 00:06:15,019 --> 00:06:17,059 但那些持仓是公开的 155 00:06:17,059 --> 00:06:18,930 你完全可以自己买 156 00:06:18,930 --> 00:06:19,870 第四步 157 00:06:19,870 --> 00:06:20,889 你自己买 158 00:06:20,889 --> 00:06:24,089 每年可以省下1%到3%的管理费 159 00:06:24,089 --> 00:06:26,199 加上申赎费和委佣 160 00:06:26,199 --> 00:06:27,139 第五步 161 00:06:27,139 --> 00:06:29,300 如果这个方向最终亏钱了 162 00:06:29,300 --> 00:06:30,779 买基金一样会亏 163 00:06:30,779 --> 00:06:32,100 只是亏的更多 164 00:06:32,100 --> 00:06:34,339 因为多亏了那几层费用 165 00:06:34,339 --> 00:06:35,579 记住这句话 166 00:06:35,579 --> 00:06:38,779 亏钱的根本原因永远是认知错误 167 00:06:38,779 --> 00:06:40,670 不是产品选错了 168 00:06:40,670 --> 00:06:43,889 基金和保险不能帮你解决认知问题 169 00:06:43,889 --> 00:06:46,930 只会让你多付一笔冤枉钱 170 00:06:46,930 --> 00:06:48,569 明白了以上逻辑 171 00:06:48,569 --> 00:06:51,060 正确做法其实很简单 172 00:06:51,060 --> 00:06:54,160 如果你看好一个行业或者市场方向 173 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:55,589 就买ETF 174 00:06:55,589 --> 00:06:57,110 看好美股大盘 175 00:06:57,110 --> 00:06:59,709 买追踪标普500的ETF 176 00:06:59,709 --> 00:07:00,910 看好港股 177 00:07:00,910 --> 00:07:04,230 买盈富基金或者恒生科技ETF 178 00:07:04,230 --> 00:07:08,170 看好科技新能源债券都有对应的ETF 179 00:07:08,170 --> 00:07:09,149 费用极低 180 00:07:09,149 --> 00:07:10,548 持仓透明 181 00:07:10,548 --> 00:07:12,928 如果你看好一家具体的公司 182 00:07:12,928 --> 00:07:14,668 就直接买正股 183 00:07:14,668 --> 00:07:16,009 看好苹果 184 00:07:16,009 --> 00:07:17,740 买苹果股票 185 00:07:17,740 --> 00:07:19,079 看好腾讯 186 00:07:19,079 --> 00:07:20,759 买腾讯股票 187 00:07:20,759 --> 00:07:22,079 持仓透明 188 00:07:22,079 --> 00:07:23,160 流动性好 189 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,529 费用只有买卖佣金和点差 190 00:07:25,529 --> 00:07:27,329 如果你需要保险保障 191 00:07:27,329 --> 00:07:29,230 那就买纯保障型保险 192 00:07:29,230 --> 00:07:32,180 也就是定期寿险或者重疾险 193 00:07:32,180 --> 00:07:35,819 保险的本质是对冲小概率的重大风险 194 00:07:35,819 --> 00:07:37,370 不是投资工具 195 00:07:37,370 --> 00:07:41,129 不要把保险和投资捆绑在同一个产品里 196 00:07:41,129 --> 00:07:43,908 那只会让你两头都贵 197 00:07:43,908 --> 00:07:46,329 我知道你可能还有一些疑问 198 00:07:46,329 --> 00:07:47,860 我来一一回答 199 00:07:47,860 --> 00:07:49,019 第一个问题 200 00:07:49,019 --> 00:07:50,860 我没时间研究股票 201 00:07:50,860 --> 00:07:52,439 让基金经理帮我选 202 00:07:52,439 --> 00:07:53,769 不是更省事 203 00:07:53,769 --> 00:07:54,410 答 204 00:07:54,410 --> 00:07:56,629 那就买宽基被动ETF 205 00:07:56,629 --> 00:08:00,470 比如追踪标普500或者全球指数的ETF 206 00:08:00,470 --> 00:08:04,069 费用在0.03%到0.2%之间 207 00:08:04,069 --> 00:08:05,908 一个产品解决问题 208 00:08:05,908 --> 00:08:08,209 省市不等于必须买基金 209 00:08:08,209 --> 00:08:09,408 第二个问题 210 00:08:09,408 --> 00:08:12,509 理财保险有保证回报和分红啊 211 00:08:12,509 --> 00:08:15,100 答请仔细看合约 212 00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:18,519 所谓保证通常只保证非常低的一部分 213 00:08:18,519 --> 00:08:20,399 比如1%到2% 214 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:22,569 剩下都是非保证分红 215 00:08:22,569 --> 00:08:25,970 证监会强制要求披露总保单费用 216 00:08:25,970 --> 00:08:28,939 就是让你看清楚真实代价是什么 217 00:08:28,939 --> 00:08:30,160 第三个问题 218 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,220 过去10年某某基金跑赢市场啊 219 00:08:33,220 --> 00:08:35,950 答这是幸存者偏差 220 00:08:35,950 --> 00:08:40,679 过去营部代表未来营把时间窗口拉长到10年 221 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:41,559 20年 222 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,879 绝大多数主动基金都跑输指数 223 00:08:44,879 --> 00:08:49,000 而且你相信某只基金本质上是相信他的持仓 224 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,659 你完全可以照着买 225 00:08:50,659 --> 00:08:52,039 不必付差价 226 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:53,279 第四个问题 227 00:08:53,279 --> 00:08:56,379 我通过强基金不是也在买基金吗 228 00:08:56,379 --> 00:08:59,159 答强基金是制度性安排 229 00:08:59,159 --> 00:09:01,100 没办法完全回避 230 00:09:01,100 --> 00:09:02,860 但即使在强基金里 231 00:09:02,860 --> 00:09:06,090 你也应该优先选择被动指数型子基金 232 00:09:06,090 --> 00:09:11,409 比如追踪恒生指数的基金费用远低于主动性好 233 00:09:11,409 --> 00:09:13,919 我们回到最开始那三句话 234 00:09:13,919 --> 00:09:18,220 理财保险和基金帮你买的还是股票和债券 235 00:09:18,220 --> 00:09:20,799 只是中间多了好几层费用 236 00:09:20,799 --> 00:09:22,720 底层资产公开可查 237 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,000 你完全可以自己直接买 238 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,240 基金经理无法保证回报 239 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:28,639 如果方向错了 240 00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:29,700 基金一样亏 241 00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:31,389 而且亏的更多 242 00:09:31,389 --> 00:09:36,309 所以请把决定权透明度和复利留给自己 243 00:09:36,309 --> 00:09:38,730 看好行业买ETF 244 00:09:38,730 --> 00:09:39,950 看好公司 245 00:09:39,950 --> 00:09:42,220 买正股需要保障 246 00:09:42,220 --> 00:09:44,159 买纯保障型保险 247 00:09:44,159 --> 00:09:47,710 其他一切中间产品默认拒绝 248 00:09:47,710 --> 00:09:50,110 这就是今天的全部内容 249 00:09:50,110 --> 00:09:51,759 谢谢大家
共 7 条，按点赞数排序。
| 用户 | 内容 | 点赞 | 回复 | 时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 喜鹊君的会计 | 永远不要把钱拿去给基金经理练手 | 25 | 1 | 2026-04-22 22:25 |
| 遛风的追狗人 | [笑哭]我买的就是etf啊，玩长线，买的南方纳斯达克 | 9 | 23 | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| 高锰酸钾碳酸钙 | up主加油更新，投币了。我只会买基金，完全对市场不了解，我现在想学习，去年11到12月纳斯达克暴跌，我基金亏了20元[笑哭] | 5 | 2 | 2026-04-22 01:41 |
| 红尘紫落 | 我在hk有银行和券商账户，投资的资产里大部分也是美元ETF(股票和债券都是)，ETF确实是透明且费率低的好东西。但是我也会拿小部分资金去买hk银行的货币基金。货币基金本质上是超短期国债+部分优质大企业短期债，其实也能找到对应的etf，但因为以下原因，我还是会去选择买货币基金： 1.赎回比etf更快，流动性更佳；2.变相在银行储蓄以规避手续费+防闲置资金吃灰(汇丰和永隆都有存1w不然扣手续费的规定)；3.频繁交易没有摩擦成本(现在的货币基金基本上没有购入和赎回费了，债券基金一般就有，混合型或其它型难说)；4.累积型常见，不会被受股息代收费(小额应急资金也有实际收益) 鉴于以上优点，支付稍高一些的手续费我认为是值得的，而且如果会挑的话，货币基金的手续费其实高不到哪里去(我买的永隆的美元货币基金的管理费才0.17%) | 3 | 0 | 2026-05-09 10:47 |
| 友谊路快速 | 买场内ETF一次五块钱[笑哭] | 2 | 11 | 2026-04-22 11:37 |
| 冰冰冰摇柠檬茶 | 大陆每年5w美金额度，这个才是最要命的吧，up有什么办法解决吗 | 1 | 4 | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| 平凡LJHLL | UP主加油！看好你噢~ | 0 | 0 | 2026-04-19 13:31 |
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