【The Motley Fool】英特尔大涨361%后：现在还是买入时机吗？

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欢迎最新杂牌组合

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完整积分榜

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我在这里和巧克力

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我们还有长期的傻瓜

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特拉维斯

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霍伊姆和马特·弗兰克尔

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给《金钱球》灾难打一到十分评分

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这是英特尔的股票代码

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I n tc rate

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英特尔业务的实力

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包括行业和竞争等因素

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十分是无敌的

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一分是毫无希望的

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马特给了八分

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特拉维斯这里五分

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是啊

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呃

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这支股票的市场情绪在过去几年发生了根本转变

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股价上涨至361%

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你可以明显看出市场开始以完全不同的眼光看待这家公司

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但仔细看数据和战略布局

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我认为没有太大变化

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他们在最近一个季度实现了营业利润

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扣除部分重组成本后

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但这源于他们出售了之前写坏的芯片

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完全不值钱

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对CPU需求巨大

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GPU

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但如今CPU是人工智能领域的热门

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这是否意味着他们能继续销售

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你知道芯片从

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下个季度的垃圾桶里

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恐怕不会

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这更像是市场看到的一次性收益

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我从根本上不认为英特尔发生了巨大转变

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而你却在支付四百多

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近五百亿美元收购这家公司

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这家公司仍面临诸多战略和技术挑战

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是啊

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我说

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我给了八分

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我看到CPU是更长期的机会

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我说

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可能需要多年时间

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换句话说

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在AI普及的新阶段

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英特尔仍是领导者

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尽管多年来市场份额持续被AMD侵蚀

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嗯

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代工业务很特殊

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尤其是它在美国本土是唯一真正大的一个

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与美国政府的关系是真正的优势

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英伟达与英特尔关系良好

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半导体公司的毛利率相对较低

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但我没有将这一点纳入商业评分

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你将会

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我们将在财务部分详细讨论

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管理层表现不错

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十分是沃伦·巴菲特

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一分是霍默·辛普森

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我们都有七分

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特拉维斯

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是的

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利布龙

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他现在正在管理公司

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我暂定七分

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嗯

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有很多关于未来计划的问题

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你知道的

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之前的管理团队赫林格试图拆分公司

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不将公司拆分为设计业务和代工业务

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现在我们已部分收回该计划

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他们想更多自主生产产品

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这可能是个不错的策略

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现在

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CPU需求似乎激增

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但仍有太多问题关于谁愿意与英特尔合作

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埃隆·马斯克

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嗯

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你知道的

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特斯拉、SpaceX、X和AI联盟在与英特尔合作

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我们不清楚具体内容或结构

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关于他们的Terra Fab

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因此有很多疑问

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我想给利普顿留些余地

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但必须谨慎评分

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因为这可能行不通

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就像

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我认为帕特·基尔辛格的思路正确

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但对公司未达预期

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是的

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我给他七分

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我给他第一年九分

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今年他没有明显失误

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但只有一年时间

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他主要在清理前任的

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你知道的

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前任管理层的错误决策

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嗯

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2026年将是执行关键年

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然后我认为二十七年是增长之年

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有很多不确定性

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有点像特拉维斯刚才提到的

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这就是为什么我给它打了七分

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在财务方面

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十分是坚如堡垒

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一分令人咋舌

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马特你给六分特拉维斯

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你给四分

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是的

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回顾他们的业务

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我说过在销售旧芯片

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这只能短期带来利好

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这是近期帮助他们的因素

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但回顾他们的毛利率

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马特提到的二零一七年

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他们的毛利率为百分之六十二

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在最近十二个月

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交叉毛利率为百分之三十五

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我们希望企业朝相反方向发展

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你看英伟达

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他们的毛利率

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运营利润率激增

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英特尔则相反

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我们谈到估值问题

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但奇怪的是市场非常乐观

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对基本面持续恶化的公司

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但这种反转已被计入股价

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是的

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我说了六分

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他们资产负债表上有大量现金

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来自政府

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来自英伟达

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来自软银

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但现金正在快速流出

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甚至更快

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实际上呈现负自由现金流

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包括所有这些

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呃

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资本支出与合理利润率

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但正如特拉维斯所说略有改善

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但并非最佳资产负债表

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除了即将耗尽的现金

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多项指标正朝正确方向发展

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但目前并非最稳健的芯片制造商

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我们来谈估值

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以及短期做空的风险

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一个是彩票

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我说零到百分之五

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安全评分五分

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这可能是我近期给出的最低组合评分

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主要原因是其市值在不到四年内翻了四倍

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呃

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从52周低点以来

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可以说两年到三年的良好执行已反映在股价中

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呃

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你知道的

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最近发布了优秀的财报

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为股价再添上涨动力

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但当前估值极高

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英特尔仍可能在此后成为赢家

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但我要说这是一家非常脆弱的公司

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在如此脆弱的股票估值下

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这里似乎已隐含了小幅波动的风险

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是的

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市销率为9倍

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如果看看台积电

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这可能是该领域最优秀的运营者

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呃

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他们

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每赚取1美元营收就能净赚近50美分

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当前交易市销率约15倍

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整个行业估值都很高

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我给出正面回报评分的原因

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是因为未来几年很可能

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我们仍将面临芯片供应限制

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半导体行业严重受限

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只需拥有制造设施

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就能销售市场需求的产品

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这可能是一个优质投资位置

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行业整体产能增长加快

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对

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需求增长能否持续

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超越产能增长

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如果这种趋势转变

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则弱势公司会首先承压

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这些公司将首当其冲

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比如英特尔公司

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至少基于今日信息

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我预期正向收益0%至5%

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但也给出极低的安全评分2分

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管理层面临极大不确定性

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股价可能翻倍

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即使成为类似概念股

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如近期所见

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也可能暴跌60-70%

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80%

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90%

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谢谢Travis和Matt

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他们给英特尔打了总体10分中的5.0分

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当然我们本来基础就偏低

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但估值也起到了巨大作用

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Matt更倾向于AMD作为首选，而Travis则看好台积电

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每周市场日七点整更新新排行榜

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M东部时间接下来关注台积电，暂别

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