【视野环球财经】20260409美股 机构亮底牌！CTA下周将大幅买入！软件集体再惨案！AMZN、META、AMD、NVDA、TSLA！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年4月9号

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周四晚上的8.20分

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今天四大指数啊是继续上涨

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盘中的利好消息居多

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市场的焦点仍然集中在停火协议的细节上

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双方依旧是存在一些分歧啊

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黎巴嫩的问题呢是这个关键的症结所在

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另外呢

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是减少对黎巴嫩的空袭呃

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尽快与黎巴嫩展开直接的谈判

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但是内塔尼亚胡呢仍旧坚持要打击真主党呃

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关于他们是不是会举行会谈

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各方报道不一样啊

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珍珠党表示说呢

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他们拒绝黎巴嫩和以色列之间的任何直接对话

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呃今天盘中的消息整体都不错啊

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市场也表现的总体强势

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不过在今天的收盘之后啊

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形势是又开始有那么一点点紧张起来呃

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目前的霍尔木兹海峡呢仍旧由呃

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伊朗有效的控制

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在昨天有少数的船只通过呃

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另外根据塔斯社的报道说呢

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伊朗每天只允许不超过15艘船只

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通过霍尔木兹海峡呃

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并通并向这个通过的船只收费

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今天周四啊是停火以来

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由第一艘非伊朗的邮轮已经是通过了海峡啊

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这个是一些松动的迹象

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呃不过呢川普今天在旁后表示非常的生气啊

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说那个不是我们达成的协议

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就是说伊朗方面呢对于海峡的这个通行

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现在做得并不好

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还有一个利好的消息呢

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是美伊代表团已经确认

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将在这个周六开始进行直接的会谈

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好我们看一下市场的其他方面的一些走势啊

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呃目前的油价呢是没有实质性的回落

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仍旧是维持在97附近

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和昨天的收盘价是几乎相当呃

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那么在大盘方面呢

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由于这个CCTA多头啊是已经加入了战团

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给市场的多头呢是增加了不少的信心

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所以今天市场整体啊

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这个weeks方面是回落到了20的下方啊

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说明整个的对冲避险的买盘开始在萎缩

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后面呢我会讲到关于CCTA的买入计划啊

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有非常大的资金的买入

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在下个星期呃

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另外呢我还还还会把一些重要的个股啊

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从上边啊一直往下讲啊

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讲到下方跟大家过一下啊

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包括像还有软件股

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今天几乎是全军覆没啊

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这个我大家看我把这个软件股都放在这里啊

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就是呃扩展软件持仓成分股

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排行前十的股票都在这里啊

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今天是一塌糊涂

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好等会呢我们再说这些个股

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我们先把今天的重要数据和大家过一遍

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今天的第一个数据呢

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是美国的2月的PC的物价指数呃

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这个指数呢是啊

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由于它是2月呀

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是在美伊的这个战争爆发之前呃

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所以呢这个数据是没有涵盖油价的涨幅的啊

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2月份的PCE环比增长0.4%

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符合预期

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高于1月份的0.3

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同比增长呢是2.8%

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这个是和预期和前值一致

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在核心PC1方面呢也是环比增长0.4

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与预测和上个月的数据相符

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但是同比的PCE的年率从3.1降到了三啊

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也是符合预期的

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总体而言呢这个报告呃没有出什么纰漏啊

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但是仍旧啊是高于美联储2%的目标

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由于3月份中东才开战啊

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所以能源价格飙升啊

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市场预计整个3月份的通胀会大幅上升

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还有一个数据呢是今天的初请啊

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初请失业这边呢是21.9万呃

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和上个星期相比是有小幅增加

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续请事业呢是179.4万啊

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是和预期前值相比呢都有所下降

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好接下来时间呢咱们就说一下资金流

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还有个股的情况

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呃首先我来说一下关于CCTA的走势啊

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好包括昨天也简单的说一下

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昨天今天看到的数据是得到了确认啊

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昨天是出现了多年来规模最大的空头回补呃

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是自2020年8月以来规模最大的一次

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也是过去10年来规模最大的三次之一啊

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排行前三啊

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所以昨天我们看到这个行情不错对吧

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昨天的成交量呢也在放量

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那么今天呢仍旧是一个强势的走势

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市场是彻底的亮明了底牌

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由于标普的技术面呢

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现在是已经回到了相对安全的位置

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另外CTA的系统资金也已经开始转买入

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同时呢市场准备呃

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以这个两个星期的停火协议为托底

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已经开始在回到战前的交易策略啊

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什么策略呢

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就是基本面做多半导体

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大科技

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抛弃软件股啊

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这是我们在战前看到的情况

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现在又回到了那种状况下

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也就是回到了呃几乎是正常的这么一个策略上

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好我们看一下CCTA的买盘的情况啊

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预计会有一个什么样的买入

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呃目前根据高盛的预计

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CCTA目前做空标普指数

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大概的仓位还有300到350亿左右

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预计CCTA将在下个星期会买入

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340到450亿美元啊

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这个就意味着会完全平仓掉现在的空头头寸

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并转为做多

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那么这个金额有多大呢

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这个金额是有史以来第二高的

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单周买入的预期啊

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这个指的是预期啊

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预期有一个前提

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前提是什么呢

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前提是不要突发大利空

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跌到6550点下方

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才能够维持这个买入预期

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现在的只要维持在相应的高点的上方啊

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特别是我们说之前的这个转买的大概6700

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35~38点的上方

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那么呃CCTA这边是不会有卖盘的啊

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它都是买盘

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如果跌破了6550

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他们可能会有预期变化

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可能又会转为做空好

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那我们简单总结一下

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你可以这么去理解

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6550点的上方啊

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已经是形成了强大的托盘的合力

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就是买盘合力啊

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跌到这就有人买

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跌到这就有人买

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这个的好处是它可以阻止市场快速的下跌啊

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这是指往下的方向上

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那大家说能不能往上涨呢

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打不打新高呢

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能不能一次打穿上方的压力

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还得看周末消息面的配合

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如果谈的好啊

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那么预计下个星期就很有希望

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在资金合力和消息面利好下有效的突破

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如果弹的不好

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那么预计还会在6550呃

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6550~6980

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这个区间来回的震荡

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来回的去磨啊

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所以有托盘有买盘不是代表一定要突破

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请大家一定要理解这个意思

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指的是会有效的阻止下跌好

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那么呃那么周末的这个谈判

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现在大概有一个什么样的预期

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大家就是可以放在什么样的一个

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基准上去思考呢

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呃我个人是这么去思考的啊

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从心理上来讲啊

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现在的美国和伊朗都有谈判啊

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就是谈判缓和局势的动机

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而且呢伊朗是提交了一份新的协议框架啊

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虽然这个协议框架没有完全的公开细节啊

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但是已经有报道说他们软化了关于损失赔偿

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还有铀浓缩等关键议题的态度

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那那这个对于美国来讲就是有的谈对吧

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那现在最大的变数是谁

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最大的变数那就是以色列了

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因为他们从动机上没有停止战争的紧迫性啊

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所以和美国不一样啊

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他们目前的这个谈判基准好

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所以呢现在比较好的

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我们对于周末的这个谈判推测啊

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呃我个人来推测一下

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就是大家不用期待周末的谈判

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一次性达成所有的协议框架啊

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什么都谈成

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什么都好

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大家握手

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这个言欢对吧

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把酒言欢

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大家这个呃这个合影照相

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那不存在的啊

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呃不要去期望一次达成所有的协议框架

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合理的谈判的逻辑

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他这个结果应该是分阶段

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分步骤结束目前的紧张局势啊

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就是你放一点啊

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我也松一点

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我们再来约个时间

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再来接着再来谈

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所以呢有可能会把这个两周的时间往后

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可以继续的有效的去推演

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让局势缓和的足够的久

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那么这就已经是难得的利好呃

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咱们不管最后谈判的细节的结果是什么啊

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我们看一个东西

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只要霍尔木兹海峡开放了

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哪怕恢复到之前一半的流量

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都算是实质性的利好

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因为现在你按照他每天只让过15艘船来讲

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和那里有几百艘船在那里压着

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那得过多久对吧

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那得过到这个下次大选去对吧

217
00:10:00,259 --> 00:10:01,700
那那太晚了对吧

218
00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:02,460
那不可能啊

219
00:10:02,460 --> 00:10:03,980
所以哪怕现在啊

220
00:10:03,980 --> 00:10:05,179
比方说一天过了100

221
00:10:05,179 --> 00:10:06,460
收了200艘

222
00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:07,100
300艘

223
00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:07,700
500艘了

224
00:10:07,700 --> 00:10:08,700
那那就可以了对吧

225
00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:09,960
那基本上就通了嘛

226
00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,740
至少能够缓解现在市场上缺油的这么个状况啊

227
00:10:13,740 --> 00:10:16,519
好所以这个预期放到这就可以了

228
00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:17,919
不用放太高

229
00:10:17,919 --> 00:10:20,440
这个呢就是对于目前大盘的一个

230
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,240
大致方向的走势啊

231
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,328
大盘呢上方的压力在s spy和QQQ

232
00:10:26,328 --> 00:10:27,369
再给大家看一眼啊

233
00:10:27,369 --> 00:10:31,870
6769696就是现在试驾试探的位置

234
00:10:31,870 --> 00:10:37,659
然后QQQ的位置是在上方的617~628啊

235
00:10:37,659 --> 00:10:39,320
这个地方还没有摸着好吧

236
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,039
617~628好

237
00:10:42,039 --> 00:10:42,779
大盘讲完了

238
00:10:42,779 --> 00:10:46,320
接下来的时间呢我们来讲一下个股

239
00:10:47,419 --> 00:10:48,659
首先说一下亚马逊啊

240
00:10:48,659 --> 00:10:49,860
个股呢我会过的比较快

241
00:10:49,860 --> 00:10:51,179
因为东西比较多

242
00:10:51,179 --> 00:10:53,950
我只把关键的信息给大家带一下

243
00:10:53,950 --> 00:10:56,990
首先呢亚马逊今天是大涨5%啊

244
00:10:56,990 --> 00:10:57,830
放量大涨

245
00:10:57,830 --> 00:11:00,029
很明显的强势买盘介入

246
00:11:00,029 --> 00:11:04,750
那么他是一口气从低位震荡的区域啊

247
00:11:04,750 --> 00:11:06,590
这个当时在跌破二百一十一十九之后

248
00:11:06,590 --> 00:11:07,549
不是一个低位震荡吗

249
00:11:07,549 --> 00:11:07,830
对吧

250
00:11:07,830 --> 00:11:09,259
也是一个长线买点吗

251
00:11:09,259 --> 00:11:10,639
你要买了你也就买了

252
00:11:10,639 --> 00:11:11,419
你没买呢

253
00:11:11,419 --> 00:11:12,340
那现在回去了

254
00:11:12,340 --> 00:11:14,339
你也就只能价格高了

255
00:11:14,339 --> 00:11:17,139
所以回到了低位震荡上演

256
00:11:17,139 --> 00:11:19,639
意味着结束了这个低位震荡

257
00:11:19,639 --> 00:11:22,240
现在目标就是寻求右侧突破

258
00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:23,860
过了236

259
00:11:23,860 --> 00:11:26,100
那么就直接看新高啊

260
00:11:26,100 --> 00:11:28,220
直接看历史的前高新高

261
00:11:28,220 --> 00:11:30,720
那它的走势就彻底的就松绑了

262
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:31,039
好吧

263
00:11:31,039 --> 00:11:33,129
这是亚马逊好

264
00:11:33,129 --> 00:11:35,129
然后是meta

265
00:11:35,850 --> 00:11:37,850
meta的情况呢最近涨的不错啊

266
00:11:37,850 --> 00:11:41,370
但是他还在这个大的震荡区间没有走出来

267
00:11:41,370 --> 00:11:46,129
下面呢已经是给了挺多次的低位吸筹的机会啊

268
00:11:46,129 --> 00:11:48,720
咱们也多次讲过meta的这个区间问题

269
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:50,039
你要吸了也就吸了

270
00:11:50,039 --> 00:11:51,799
梅西呢现在的位置也变高了

271
00:11:51,799 --> 00:11:53,519
现在的位置能不能吸呢

272
00:11:53,519 --> 00:11:56,440
500~700这个区间从做长线来讲

273
00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:57,779
你去分批控制仓位

274
00:11:57,779 --> 00:12:00,620
控制合理成本成本往下降都可以

275
00:12:00,620 --> 00:12:03,019
但现在的价格明显越接近700

276
00:12:03,019 --> 00:12:04,100
你不就越高吗对吧

277
00:12:04,100 --> 00:12:06,139
所以现在的情况就是变得

278
00:12:06,139 --> 00:12:07,879
你要去买的成本太高了

279
00:12:07,879 --> 00:12:10,059
呃现在它没有突破啊

280
00:12:10,059 --> 00:12:11,519
他仍旧是在这个震荡区域

281
00:12:11,519 --> 00:12:12,799
还是有可能上去过不了

282
00:12:12,799 --> 00:12:13,960
然后又回来的啊

283
00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:15,279
还是在这里继续在这里磨

284
00:12:15,279 --> 00:12:16,059
在这里磨

285
00:12:16,059 --> 00:12:18,220
所以呃目前他的看法不变

286
00:12:18,220 --> 00:12:20,659
长线看呢低吸低吸

287
00:12:20,659 --> 00:12:22,340
这里低吸逢高呢

288
00:12:22,340 --> 00:12:24,980
你就只能等待这种接触到上方的强压力

289
00:12:24,980 --> 00:12:25,960
位置的呃

290
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:26,639
你要去追呢

291
00:12:26,639 --> 00:12:28,440
就是追一个纯右侧突破啊

292
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:29,899
追一个纯右侧

293
00:12:29,899 --> 00:12:32,019
他想要看钱高还早啊

294
00:12:32,019 --> 00:12:34,919
那他只是要要突破上方的700多块钱

295
00:12:34,919 --> 00:12:38,090
所以能突破678就已经很好了啊

296
00:12:38,330 --> 00:12:41,379
好然后是AMD

297
00:12:42,179 --> 00:12:44,299
AMD也是在昨天啊

298
00:12:44,299 --> 00:12:48,309
已经是收盘收到了这个221

299
00:12:48,309 --> 00:12:50,049
今天直接跳空啊

300
00:12:50,049 --> 00:12:53,210
把这个止跌这个突破止跌区域打过去以后

301
00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:54,399
昨天昨天啊

302
00:12:54,399 --> 00:12:55,360
昨天打过去之后

303
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:56,879
今天是再进一步

304
00:12:56,879 --> 00:13:01,000
已经是来到了右侧后前的最后一个压力

305
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,240
241块钱

306
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:03,620
231到241

307
00:13:03,620 --> 00:13:06,360
突破之后就看一个前高新高好吧

308
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:07,759
前几天我们刚刚讲过

309
00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:10,820
关于MD的整个的动能有待增强啊

310
00:13:10,820 --> 00:13:13,970
他这个突破呢也是顺势而为

311
00:13:13,970 --> 00:13:16,129
现在就看他能不能打前高往上走

312
00:13:16,129 --> 00:13:18,580
特别是在最近半导体整体强势

313
00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:21,299
那么机构又在大举买入半导体的情况下啊

314
00:13:21,299 --> 00:13:23,970
这个机会还是比较大的好

315
00:13:23,970 --> 00:13:26,370
英伟达呃

316
00:13:26,370 --> 00:13:30,679
英伟达的情况最大的问题是市值权重太大了啊

317
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:36,230
他的它的整个的结构呢和呃这个大盘是一样的

318
00:13:36,230 --> 00:13:37,470
你可以看他的位置啊

319
00:13:37,470 --> 00:13:39,370
跟大盘非常的接近

320
00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:39,769
呃

321
00:13:39,769 --> 00:13:41,850
英伟达没有实质性的走强啊

322
00:13:41,850 --> 00:13:45,470
上方这个地方的187~190的强压力

323
00:13:45,470 --> 00:13:47,269
过不了的话是看不到前高的

324
00:13:47,269 --> 00:13:48,750
就跟大盘是一个情况啊

325
00:13:48,750 --> 00:13:52,830
大盘那个压力不是离前高也很近嘛对吧

326
00:13:52,830 --> 00:13:53,950
6980嘛

327
00:13:53,950 --> 00:13:55,269
因为最高是7000嘛

328
00:13:55,269 --> 00:13:56,429
这就是一个强压力啊

329
00:13:56,429 --> 00:13:58,129
就是在顶部形成的一个强压力

330
00:13:58,129 --> 00:13:59,559
其实过不过得了

331
00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,200
前高就看这个位置

332
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:01,960
过不过得了啊

333
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:02,720
过不了呢

334
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,259
相当于是两个顶形成啊

335
00:14:04,259 --> 00:14:04,799
双顶了

336
00:14:04,799 --> 00:14:07,759
那就是其实呃英伟达的情况也是一样的啊

337
00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:10,820
它的结构上差不多190块钱

338
00:14:10,820 --> 00:14:14,539
要过过了才能看前高新高

339
00:14:15,940 --> 00:14:19,789
好特斯拉特斯拉的情况呢是这样呃

340
00:14:19,789 --> 00:14:24,549
他的情况是在震荡下沿扎了两针啊

341
00:14:24,549 --> 00:14:25,830
这两针扎下去呢

342
00:14:25,830 --> 00:14:30,269
今天也不是一个非常明确的止跌形态啊

343
00:14:30,269 --> 00:14:32,440
不是一个强力的止跌形态

344
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:36,120
但是呢和昨天比肯定是已经不错了

345
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:36,440
对不对

346
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:38,259
而且呢两次打了这个低点

347
00:14:38,259 --> 00:14:38,960
300多块钱

348
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:39,759
330多块钱

349
00:14:39,759 --> 00:14:40,519
三百七十三七

350
00:14:40,519 --> 00:14:41,980
338好

351
00:14:41,980 --> 00:14:45,100
那么特斯拉的情况比较明确的看法

352
00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:46,779
就是这个位置

353
00:14:46,779 --> 00:14:49,720
其实啊如果大盘整体转好

354
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,200
特斯拉其实有机会的

355
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,700
还是有机会在这个地方能搏一搏反弹的

356
00:14:53,700 --> 00:14:55,529
那么还是那句话

357
00:14:55,529 --> 00:14:59,450
特斯拉这支股票呢波段做法看盈亏比

358
00:14:59,450 --> 00:15:02,149
现在的盈亏比已经非常不错了

359
00:15:02,149 --> 00:15:04,720
下方315跌破止损

360
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,440
上方上看到420级

361
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:07,940
上方

362
00:15:07,940 --> 00:15:11,600
也就意味着呢下方有30块钱左右的止损空间

363
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,080
但上方有60呃

364
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,940
75块钱左右的潜在的盈利空间

365
00:15:16,940 --> 00:15:20,490
这个盈亏比已经是超过了二比一了

366
00:15:20,490 --> 00:15:23,029
从波段角度完全可行啊

367
00:15:23,029 --> 00:15:25,720
只不过呢你这个不波段的意思

368
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,500
可行的意思不是说他一定能成功啊

369
00:15:27,500 --> 00:15:28,759
他还是能够跌穿的嘛

370
00:15:28,759 --> 00:15:30,019
那利空继续发

371
00:15:30,019 --> 00:15:30,960
继续跌穿

372
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:31,700
那没办法

373
00:15:31,700 --> 00:15:32,580
那你就是止损嘛

374
00:15:32,580 --> 00:15:34,299
所以这是做波段的想法啊

375
00:15:34,299 --> 00:15:35,909
至于做长线的朋友呢

376
00:15:35,909 --> 00:15:37,950
那最近我个人是在这个位置

377
00:15:37,950 --> 00:15:39,870
没有做长线的预期的啊

378
00:15:39,870 --> 00:15:43,419
在这个300多块钱个人目前还看不到啊

379
00:15:43,419 --> 00:15:44,940
所以我就不做了好吧

380
00:15:44,940 --> 00:15:46,980
长线我这里没有任何的加仓仓位啊

381
00:15:46,980 --> 00:15:48,059
提前给大家讲清楚

382
00:15:48,059 --> 00:15:50,688
但这个地方的波段是有性价比

383
00:15:50,688 --> 00:15:52,869
可以做一做的好

384
00:15:52,869 --> 00:15:56,879
然后台积电台积电的情况呢

385
00:15:56,879 --> 00:15:57,919
突破了351啊

386
00:15:57,919 --> 00:16:00,110
突破看前高这个目标不变啊

387
00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:00,870
目标不变

388
00:16:00,870 --> 00:16:02,190
看前高走势

389
00:16:02,190 --> 00:16:04,389
台积电那只是现在要走的慢一点啊

390
00:16:04,389 --> 00:16:04,909
稍微慢一点

391
00:16:04,909 --> 00:16:06,679
今天有一个小回撤横盘

392
00:16:06,679 --> 00:16:07,799
昨天冲高回落

393
00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:08,759
今天是横盘吧

394
00:16:08,759 --> 00:16:11,429
后面仍旧看新高

395
00:16:11,870 --> 00:16:15,038
微软微软呢是比较尴尬的呃

396
00:16:15,038 --> 00:16:16,719
他虽然是大权重呃

397
00:16:16,719 --> 00:16:18,879
但是呢在市场中是比较弱的

398
00:16:18,879 --> 00:16:20,318
买盘力量比较少的

399
00:16:20,318 --> 00:16:25,700
主要原因它还是软件板块的大权重啊

400
00:16:25,700 --> 00:16:28,000
持仓市值市值第一的啊

401
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:32,169
软件股受到软件股整体疲软的拖累

402
00:16:32,169 --> 00:16:35,200
所以微软走得也非常的糟糕

403
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,759
呃这个糟糕呢比起其他的软件股已经好很多了

404
00:16:38,759 --> 00:16:40,279
但和其他的七大权重比

405
00:16:40,279 --> 00:16:41,480
他是很糟糕的

406
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,850
目前的情况呢它呃今天这个下跌啊

407
00:16:45,850 --> 00:16:48,289
他其实也不是一个很强力的止跌形态啊

408
00:16:48,289 --> 00:16:51,730
因为已经比昨天的开盘价的实体还要低嘛

409
00:16:51,730 --> 00:16:52,620
今天的收盘价

410
00:16:52,620 --> 00:16:54,340
所以呢是一个横盘走势啊

411
00:16:54,340 --> 00:16:56,159
没有看到太强的东西

412
00:16:56,159 --> 00:16:58,200
仍仍旧是一个我我把它看成一个横盘

413
00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,899
所以我仍旧没有买入啊

414
00:16:59,899 --> 00:17:01,039
仍旧没有买入

415
00:17:01,039 --> 00:17:02,700
那么什么时候会买呢

416
00:17:02,700 --> 00:17:03,500
还是那句话

417
00:17:03,500 --> 00:17:04,960
往下375下方

418
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,059
现在不是373吗

419
00:17:06,059 --> 00:17:08,210
有非常强的止跌形态

420
00:17:08,210 --> 00:17:10,529
或者向上突破430

421
00:17:10,529 --> 00:17:12,170
进入右侧趋势啊

422
00:17:12,170 --> 00:17:13,130
我才会去考虑啊

423
00:17:13,130 --> 00:17:14,250
就这两个方向好吗

424
00:17:14,250 --> 00:17:16,450
其他的时候呢就没有买呃

425
00:17:16,450 --> 00:17:17,849
如果我要是买入的话

426
00:17:17,849 --> 00:17:18,650
加仓的话

427
00:17:18,650 --> 00:17:20,130
我会在节目里更新的啊

428
00:17:20,130 --> 00:17:24,109
没有更新就代表我没有买入好谷歌的情况

429
00:17:24,109 --> 00:17:24,869
那就不多说了

430
00:17:24,869 --> 00:17:25,309
横盘吧

431
00:17:25,309 --> 00:17:26,589
今天是个缩量啊

432
00:17:26,589 --> 00:17:28,529
这个时候缩量三大数还没过呢

433
00:17:28,529 --> 00:17:31,710
过去以后才能够有更好更多的看法啊

434
00:17:31,710 --> 00:17:32,569
苹果就不说了吧

435
00:17:32,569 --> 00:17:34,069
苹果这个横盘吧

436
00:17:34,069 --> 00:17:36,440
缩量横盘这么小的量好

437
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,880
那NETFLIX呢是100突破了之后

438
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,059
上方呃是一个呃一个突破啊

439
00:17:43,059 --> 00:17:44,140
上方的压力不大

440
00:17:44,140 --> 00:17:45,460
102~107

441
00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:47,680
然后108~115才有强压力

442
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:47,980
好吧

443
00:17:47,980 --> 00:17:50,140
大家自行呢如果有波段的朋友呢

444
00:17:50,140 --> 00:17:51,779
自行去追一下它的波段啊

445
00:17:51,779 --> 00:17:52,740
就是跟踪一下

446
00:17:52,740 --> 00:17:54,519
不是让大家追涨波段啊

447
00:17:54,519 --> 00:17:57,759
跟踪一下它这个波段的潜力大概得十个点吧

448
00:17:57,759 --> 00:17:59,920
呃十个点是比较不错的啊

449
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:01,099
因为他马上发财报了

450
00:18:01,099 --> 00:18:01,660
大家要注意

451
00:18:01,660 --> 00:18:02,638
4月16号

452
00:18:02,638 --> 00:18:05,739
你现在去追这个右侧的波段呢

453
00:18:05,739 --> 00:18:07,318
面临的风险就是财报啊

454
00:18:07,318 --> 00:18:08,318
如果财报拉跨

455
00:18:08,318 --> 00:18:10,150
你可能追不上去

456
00:18:10,150 --> 00:18:11,009
它就掉下来

457
00:18:11,009 --> 00:18:12,450
那这个就没办法了啊

458
00:18:13,730 --> 00:18:17,609
好然后呃再说一下软件

459
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,480
软件呢又惨案了

460
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:26,279
软件呢在反弹了差不多一个月之后又开始了

461
00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:26,599
呃

462
00:18:26,599 --> 00:18:30,980
而且今天我们看IGV这个软件扩展软件ETF啊

463
00:18:30,980 --> 00:18:35,329
是已经这个收盘价放了低点啊

464
00:18:38,009 --> 00:18:39,089
非常的糟糕啊

465
00:18:39,089 --> 00:18:41,730
所以今天整个的软件大家看一下

466
00:18:41,730 --> 00:18:43,990
我都列在这里全部一样啊

467
00:18:43,990 --> 00:18:45,490
这个大哥别笑二哥

468
00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:46,950
二哥别笑三弟对吧

469
00:18:46,950 --> 00:18:47,990
大家都一样啊

470
00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:49,160
全都一回事啊

471
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:50,279
所以呢大家也别说唉

472
00:18:50,279 --> 00:18:52,980
哪只个股什么PLTR为什么跌这么多

473
00:18:52,980 --> 00:18:54,400
实际上CLW呃

474
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,000
呃CRWD为什么跌这么多

475
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:57,880
什么NTU跌这么多都一样啊

476
00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:58,990
大家都跌了很多

477
00:18:58,990 --> 00:19:00,009
还是那句话

478
00:19:00,009 --> 00:19:03,430
现在呢又变成了大家大力做多半导体

479
00:19:03,430 --> 00:19:05,690
然后呢开始干空软件了

480
00:19:05,690 --> 00:19:07,960
因为这两个是一个宿敌嘛

481
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:08,700
在叙事上

482
00:19:08,700 --> 00:19:10,779
AI叙事上他就是个宿敌

483
00:19:10,779 --> 00:19:13,269
你看好AI的成功成长

484
00:19:13,269 --> 00:19:13,970
那你就聊

485
00:19:13,970 --> 00:19:15,470
那你就看空软件

486
00:19:15,470 --> 00:19:17,670
因为AI成功成长之后呢

487
00:19:17,670 --> 00:19:19,809
那会可能会颠覆部分的软件行业

488
00:19:19,809 --> 00:19:21,369
那么谁能被颠覆

489
00:19:21,369 --> 00:19:22,390
谁不能颠覆呢

490
00:19:22,390 --> 00:19:23,710
那就看财报对吧

491
00:19:23,710 --> 00:19:25,210
财报能救他们自己

492
00:19:25,210 --> 00:19:26,289
财报没出来之前

493
00:19:26,289 --> 00:19:27,190
大家都差不多

494
00:19:27,190 --> 00:19:29,529
因为整体板块被卖掉

495
00:19:29,529 --> 00:19:31,490
整体的权重成分被卖掉

496
00:19:31,490 --> 00:19:32,930
所以大家都在被卖

497
00:19:32,930 --> 00:19:34,289
他是一个被动行为

498
00:19:34,289 --> 00:19:36,029
而不是说我看空哪只个股

499
00:19:36,029 --> 00:19:38,289
它就它就跌的少的都一样啊

500
00:19:38,289 --> 00:19:41,869
所以这个是目前软件大跌的最主要的原因呃

501
00:19:41,869 --> 00:19:45,138
所以谁能够在里边脱颖而出

502
00:19:45,138 --> 00:19:46,179
看他们的财报

503
00:19:46,179 --> 00:19:48,778
只有他们自己的财报能救他们自己

504
00:19:48,778 --> 00:19:53,029
能够去反驳AI叙事给软件股带来的颠覆好吧

505
00:19:53,029 --> 00:19:56,130
所以呢这就是目前软件的一个情况呃

506
00:19:56,130 --> 00:19:58,109
技术面上当然走的就比较糟糕了

507
00:19:58,109 --> 00:19:59,789
跌破之后呢又陷入震荡了啊

508
00:19:59,789 --> 00:20:02,549
下方的震荡下沿在66.8到72.9

509
00:20:02,549 --> 00:20:04,019
这个位置好吧

510
00:20:04,019 --> 00:20:05,880
在这个区间里边呃

511
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,279
请大家呢根据你自己的这个

512
00:20:08,279 --> 00:20:10,519
这个这个持股的情况呢

513
00:20:10,519 --> 00:20:12,490
你就感受一下吧

514
00:20:12,490 --> 00:20:14,470
看看你是愿意这个走还是不走

515
00:20:14,470 --> 00:20:15,849
还是愿意接受这个震荡

516
00:20:15,849 --> 00:20:17,289
等财报去搏一搏啊

517
00:20:17,289 --> 00:20:19,869
这个因为我原来持有的这个NTU

518
00:20:19,869 --> 00:20:20,849
我是已经走了的嘛

519
00:20:20,849 --> 00:20:23,630
啊我是均价371已经走稳

520
00:20:23,630 --> 00:20:24,720
已经走人的啊

521
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,039
所以呢他现在又跌到了360亿

522
00:20:27,039 --> 00:20:28,200
而且又跌破位了对吧

523
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:29,519
375跌破位了嘛

524
00:20:29,519 --> 00:20:30,539
再次破位

525
00:20:30,539 --> 00:20:32,900
再次部位又回到了之前那个状况啊

526
00:20:32,900 --> 00:20:35,859
就是看一个这个技术面的走空啊

527
00:20:35,859 --> 00:20:39,319
同时呢靠他自己的财报来救他自己

528
00:20:39,319 --> 00:20:42,960
另外呢像PLTR也给大家看一下他的情况

529
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,079
他是比较有代表性的

530
00:20:45,079 --> 00:20:47,319
和IGV的走势很类似的啊

531
00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:50,019
他呢在里边的权重也比较大嘛

532
00:20:50,019 --> 00:20:51,880
136145已经跌破了

533
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,920
下方122~126是强支撑啊

534
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:56,019
这个地方好

535
00:20:56,019 --> 00:20:58,420
其他的就给大家看一下甲骨文

536
00:20:59,069 --> 00:21:00,529
大家自行看一下啊

537
00:21:00,529 --> 00:21:01,849
愿意截图截一下图

538
00:21:01,849 --> 00:21:03,759
137~143

539
00:21:03,759 --> 00:21:06,859
120~127强支撑好吧

540
00:21:06,859 --> 00:21:09,599
再往下呢就是10~116了

541
00:21:09,599 --> 00:21:14,549
然后CRM156到172

542
00:21:14,549 --> 00:21:17,210
目前的价格正好在这里两个强支撑啊

543
00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:18,119
它离得比较近

544
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:18,920
稍微好一点

545
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,599
但是呢已经是跌破了前期的这个低点

546
00:21:21,599 --> 00:21:23,680
收盘价跌破了2月份的低点啊

547
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,200
当然是一个技术面的空头走势呃

548
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,059
目前他们这种空头走势形成之后

549
00:21:28,059 --> 00:21:30,079
你就要看止跌了啊

550
00:21:30,079 --> 00:21:31,480
就不能够随便去抄了

551
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:32,940
如果你说你抄的是技术面

552
00:21:32,940 --> 00:21:34,700
看好的是软件股的未来

553
00:21:34,700 --> 00:21:35,559
那随意啊

554
00:21:35,559 --> 00:21:37,259
但是如果是技术面的角度来讲

555
00:21:37,259 --> 00:21:37,880
跌破之后

556
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,869
那你要等它有强烈的止跌形态才能考虑去进场

557
00:21:41,869 --> 00:21:43,789
因为大资金没进场就不进场嘛

558
00:21:43,789 --> 00:21:45,190
就这个意思就跟之前一样

559
00:21:45,190 --> 00:21:46,460
嘎嘣反弹

560
00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:47,859
那大资金进场了

561
00:21:47,859 --> 00:21:48,720
你看放量嘛

562
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:49,460
大家还看到了吗

563
00:21:49,460 --> 00:21:50,779
这里都在放量

564
00:21:50,779 --> 00:21:52,339
那就代表着有行情了

565
00:21:52,339 --> 00:21:53,480
他如果在放量下跌

566
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:54,940
那代表什么还没跌完呗

567
00:21:54,940 --> 00:21:56,619
大概就这个意思啊

568
00:21:56,940 --> 00:21:59,640
好NTU375跌破之后啊

569
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,400
下一个支撑346~363

570
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:02,200
在这个位置

571
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,809
然后再往下就是270~300啊

572
00:22:05,809 --> 00:22:11,569
也是放量下跌好app a p p呢是360~400啊

573
00:22:11,569 --> 00:22:12,970
360~400的强支撑

574
00:22:12,970 --> 00:22:15,449
他这两个位置非常强非常的强

575
00:22:15,449 --> 00:22:17,409
但是真的如果跌破了之后

576
00:22:17,409 --> 00:22:18,929
那下方可跌的就多了

577
00:22:18,929 --> 00:22:20,128
那就不是01:30点了啊

578
00:22:20,128 --> 00:22:26,529
但是离得比较远好adobe adobe呢是162~182哦

579
00:22:26,529 --> 00:22:28,690
上面的212211的282啊

580
00:22:28,690 --> 00:22:29,809
228这里啊

581
00:22:29,809 --> 00:22:31,829
211的228还没有跌穿呢

582
00:22:31,829 --> 00:22:33,150
写画的高了一点啊

583
00:22:33,150 --> 00:22:36,200
这里然后跌穿之后下方的169~182

584
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,140
但是他明显比整个软件走的还要弱

585
00:22:39,140 --> 00:22:40,880
因为他在叙事里边啊

586
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,490
整个的AI的叙事里边

587
00:22:42,490 --> 00:22:44,369
他的冲击是比较大的啊

588
00:22:44,369 --> 00:22:46,950
因为它主要是你想想作图嘛对吧

589
00:22:46,950 --> 00:22:47,609
作图啊

590
00:22:47,609 --> 00:22:48,390
编辑啊

591
00:22:48,390 --> 00:22:49,250
视频编辑啊

592
00:22:49,250 --> 00:22:51,369
这个不就是现在的AI最厉害的地方吗

593
00:22:51,369 --> 00:22:53,529
所以它的冲击很大啊

594
00:22:53,529 --> 00:22:55,699
大家看一下非常的大好

595
00:22:55,699 --> 00:22:59,179
这个网络安全类的相对好一点对吧

596
00:22:59,179 --> 00:23:01,038
叙事上相对没那么糟糕

597
00:23:01,038 --> 00:23:05,240
它呢这个PNW呢是在154~161啊

598
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:06,119
还撑得住对吧

599
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,880
刚刚只跌破了一个强强支撑

600
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,859
166~175嗯

601
00:23:09,859 --> 00:23:13,150
位置相对比较高一点好额

602
00:23:13,150 --> 00:23:16,470
这个CIWD他呢是破位走弱

603
00:23:16,470 --> 00:23:16,990
在这里啊

604
00:23:16,990 --> 00:23:18,230
362395

605
00:23:18,230 --> 00:23:19,750
这是一个超宽的强支撑

606
00:23:19,750 --> 00:23:20,960
差不多有十个点

607
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,640
十个点这个地方就不能破了

608
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,099
再破就有点糟糕了啊

609
00:23:25,099 --> 00:23:27,670
所以他也是属于网络安全类嘛

610
00:23:27,670 --> 00:23:29,589
相对整个来讲

611
00:23:29,589 --> 00:23:31,829
网络安全和软软件的整个板块来讲

612
00:23:31,829 --> 00:23:33,759
位置还偏高一点点

613
00:23:33,759 --> 00:23:37,240
好这个ServiceNow ServiceNow就有点糟糕了

614
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,339
因为他的说实话他的什么东西呢

615
00:23:40,339 --> 00:23:44,009
嗯整个的叙事上现在对他也有点不利啊

616
00:23:44,009 --> 00:23:48,450
虽然也是这个这个安全相关的呃

617
00:23:48,450 --> 00:23:50,549
94~103

618
00:23:50,549 --> 00:23:52,029
82~92

619
00:23:52,029 --> 00:23:53,789
然后下方的我都没写

620
00:23:53,789 --> 00:23:55,269
因为比较空

621
00:23:55,269 --> 00:23:57,848
下边啊比较的空好吧

622
00:23:57,848 --> 00:24:01,400
然后DDOG也是要破底了

623
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:02,839
107啊很重要

624
00:24:02,839 --> 00:24:03,719
破位走弱

625
00:24:03,719 --> 00:24:06,239
然后再往下就是101~103

626
00:24:06,239 --> 00:24:08,778
要到97块七下方才有强支撑了

627
00:24:08,778 --> 00:24:09,539
好吧

628
00:24:09,539 --> 00:24:11,579
所以呢这个地方都给大家更新一下

629
00:24:11,579 --> 00:24:12,299
简单的看一下

630
00:24:12,299 --> 00:24:13,339
因为它个股太多了

631
00:24:13,339 --> 00:24:15,019
没有办法一个个的给大家细讲

632
00:24:15,019 --> 00:24:16,430
只把位置拿出来

633
00:24:16,430 --> 00:24:17,710
总的逻辑就是市场

634
00:24:17,710 --> 00:24:20,789
现在呢又回到了3月份之前的那个交易状况啊

635
00:24:20,789 --> 00:24:25,890
然后主攻大科技以及和AI相关的啊

636
00:24:25,890 --> 00:24:27,730
主要但是是硬核AI啊

637
00:24:27,730 --> 00:24:30,509
不是那个高动量的那个成长股AI啊

638
00:24:30,509 --> 00:24:32,039
不是什么核电力啊

639
00:24:32,039 --> 00:24:33,339
也不是那些东西啊

640
00:24:33,339 --> 00:24:34,579
大家千万要记住

641
00:24:34,579 --> 00:24:37,329
公德是有基本面保障的

642
00:24:37,329 --> 00:24:40,130
不是公的那些那个mean in stock

643
00:24:40,130 --> 00:24:42,599
像那种被炒的炒概念的

644
00:24:42,599 --> 00:24:44,240
会需要很多年才有回报的

645
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:45,240
不是那种股票啊

646
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,909
你可以看一下成长股里面你就知道了

647
00:24:48,548 --> 00:24:51,989
城镇国列表里面很多的个股和AI相关的对吧

648
00:24:51,989 --> 00:24:54,828
大家其实都表现的有好有坏吧

649
00:24:54,828 --> 00:24:56,099
业绩不错的还可以

650
00:24:56,099 --> 00:24:58,019
业绩呢有增长的还可以

651
00:24:58,019 --> 00:25:00,819
业绩不好的那就是比较糟糕了啊

652
00:25:00,819 --> 00:25:03,269
所以所以这个市场呢

653
00:25:03,269 --> 00:25:07,910
呃还是学随着马上的第一季度财报季的到来

654
00:25:07,910 --> 00:25:11,029
市场还是宁愿去拿一些业绩上有保证的股票

655
00:25:11,029 --> 00:25:13,720
而不想承受现在的双重风险嘛

656
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,799
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

657
00:25:16,799 --> 00:25:19,039
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助啊

658
00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:22,890
还是希望大家能够多多的帮忙点赞啊

659
00:25:22,890 --> 00:25:25,680
多多的帮忙这个转发转发啊

660
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,119
给你需要的朋友啊

661
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:28,519
也希望在咱们的评论区呢

662
00:25:28,519 --> 00:25:32,640
留下你的对于市场的客观的看法好

663
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,059
那我们今天节目到这啊

664
00:25:34,059 --> 00:25:35,779
咱们就明天的同一时间

665
00:25:35,779 --> 00:25:37,920
咱们不见不散

共 11 条，按点赞数排序。

共 4 条，按视频时间排序。