半导体到底要涨几倍？【2026-05-08】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月8号星期五

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标普指数今天上涨了61.82点

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涨幅0.84%

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又创新高

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天天创新高

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意味着再创新高的概率大

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上涨行情具有一定的惯性

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顺势看涨做多是比较合理的选择

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逆势唱空做空就会像大空头MICROBURRY那样

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永远有亏不完的钱

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美股不管从10年大趋势还是五天均线

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都是向上走

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看涨胜率高

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美股的调整又急又剧烈啊

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调整来了再说

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不必提前去预测

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因为根本就无法预测

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨440.88点

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涨幅1.71%

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又是三大指数最强

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当纳指最强时

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市场上涨的持续性和爆发力最好

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相比之下

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代表传统行业的道琼斯指数

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今天只涨了万分之二

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可见市场两极分化有点严重

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纳指本周的涨幅有点超过平时大多数时间

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从周线图看的话

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那只连续大涨六周了

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伊朗战争挖了一个小坑

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从底部反弹后马不停蹄

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越涨越多

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虽然技术形态上没有任何值得唱空做空的信号

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但是现在这个时候在进场做多

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并不是很好的时机了

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连续六周上涨阳线随时可以来一根周线阴线

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否则不太符合股市阴阳交错

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涨跌互现的规律

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今天我的公开账户截图

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净值上了22万

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当日盈利4191

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增长1.93%

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略微跑赢了那只特斯拉

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今天总算使了点劲儿啦

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涨了4%

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有人问我说啊

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你什么时候买的微软

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实际上我早就在这个账户中持有微软了

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成本是337.75

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这个成本现在看应该是相当安全

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公开账户持有两只半导体

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英伟达和高通是半导体当中表现比较差的了

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但也盈利了

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反正半导体整个板块随便买都没有不赚钱的

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从昨天起

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这个账户就没有浮亏的仓位了

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今年有硬件股就可以横着走了

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买了其他板块一点也不爽

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今天的板块热力图又是一派欺软怕硬的行情

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半导体

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计算机

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硬件等板块大涨

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连特斯拉为首的汽车制造板块也在涨

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因为汽车也是硬邦邦的东西

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但那些软的都很软

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主要就是软件还是在下跌

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今年要是买了软件啊

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确实是倒了霉

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我就在想

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这是市场出错了还是事实本该如此呢

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结论是市场非常聪明

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没有出错

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人工智能作为第四次工业革命是史诗级的

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它带来硬件的需求暴增

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软件的更新换代

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最终被AI替代是一个历史潮流

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那些给人类使用的有UI界面

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滚动条

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进度条

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点击按钮图标等

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AI将不再需要AI

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需要的是API

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就是直接接口接入运行程序就开始工作了

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在搞清楚未来软件会不会全军覆没之前

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资本弃软件股追硬件股

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似乎追求的是确定性

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抛弃的是不确定性

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大多数情况下

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市场的选择是正确的

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因为股市的一大功能就是资源配置

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将资金配置到赚钱最高效的领域

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哪里有钱赚钱就会往哪里集中

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哪里要被淘汰

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哪里的资金就会往外逃

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但市场又经常出错啊

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导致股价低估

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等市场回过神来

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股价就会大涨

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像之前的谷歌

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英特尔都曾经历过这样的时刻

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大家都怀疑他们不行

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股价极低

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后来又都行了

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股价大涨

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所以我相信软件板块可能整体是有风险的

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但内部个股一定会有被错杀的

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最终会得到市场的修正

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今天美国公布非农数据

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经季节性调整后

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4月份非农就业人数新增11.5万人

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低于3月份的18.5万人

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超过预测值5.5万人

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失业率4.3%

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失业率较为稳定

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这说明总体上看劳动力市场没有太大的问题

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就业数据还有一个不错的方面

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就是工资增长率不高

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4月份平均小时工资环比上涨0.2%

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同比上涨3.6%

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低于市场的预期

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从统计曲线图上看

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工资增长率已经从之前高通胀时期大幅回落

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西方经济学有一个通胀

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工资螺旋

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工资上涨导致通胀上涨

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物价一涨

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工人要求涨工资

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然后工资继续上涨

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有更多的钱花

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所以物价继续上涨

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工资和物价互相带动

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导致了通胀螺旋上涨

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最近工资增长放缓

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通胀担忧有所缓解

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市场认为这个减少了本年度加息的概率

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实际上啊就业没有什么问题

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不太需要降息

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通胀也不是大问题

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也不需要加息

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按兵不动就是最好的策略了

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密歇根大学消费者信心指数最近刷出历史新低

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5月消费者信心指数初值降至48.2

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创下自1952年有记录以来的最低水平

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预期值为49.5

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那消费者为什么没有信心呢

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原因是战争和关税大环境下

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无论个人财物还是购买大件商品的能力

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消费者都面临巨大的压力

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消费者信心低会缓解通胀压力

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但最近油价上涨并不是需求驱动

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而是供应端不足导致的

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霍尔木兹海峡封锁原油运不出来

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所以上涨需求被抑制

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甚至连加息也无法解决这样的问题

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加息并不能让原油从地里冒出来

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只能让大家少加点油

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所以最近一段时间

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货币政策不是什么重要的问题

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中东那边停火了几天后

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今天又出现了小规模交火

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但川普说停火协议依然有效

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美军袭击了两艘试图突破封锁的伊朗船只

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伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社称

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美伊在霍尔木兹海峡发生了规模有限的交火

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在以色列以北

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重新对以色列发动袭击

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周末到了打仗的各方啊

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又都快要打起来了

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在本周14条谈判提议写在一张纸上

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交给伊朗之后

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还没有获得伊朗方面的正式回应

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但预计今天将会得到回复

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卢比奥希望伊朗提出认真严肃的提议

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以便推动双方进入严肃谈判的进程

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但市场上根本不寄希望于霍尔木兹重新开放

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因为流行一种natural交易

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N丑是一句短语的缩写

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Not a chance hormoose opens

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说的是霍尔木兹海峡根本不可能重开

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这个词的出现

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说明市场已经放弃对战争快速退出的期待

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认为封锁将会长期化

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于是投资者继续看涨黄金

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石油

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通胀和利率

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股市也不怎么对相关消息做出过度的反应

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英伟达的亲儿子CRWV增收不增利

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感觉给英伟达打工有点辛苦啊

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股价在财报后也跌了12%

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corn wave的季度营业收入是20.8亿

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同比增长112%

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超过华尔街预期的19.7亿

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coral wave的核心资产是买了大量的英伟达H100

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B200等顶级的AI芯片

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组建算力租给大型AI初创公司

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靠卖算力赚钱

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这个有点像是房东买房出租赚钱

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这种生意和英伟达不太一样啊

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英伟达具有垄断实力

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而买芯片来出租

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是一个重资产

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竞争激烈的生意

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虽然营业收入增长了112%

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看起来很吓人

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但是要注意啊

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这种增长是靠高杠杆堆出来的

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因为需要支付高昂的设备利息和电力成本

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公司的净利润率依然承压

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虽然营收增速较高

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但是利润还是亏损

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上季度的经营亏损是1.44亿

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亏损还有所放大

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借钱买算力出租

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提高了债务杠杆

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需要支付利息

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上季度利息从3.9亿增长到了5.4亿

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财务成本上升是亏损扩大的原因

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从这点上看

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大规模投资数据中心

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加大资本支出

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以接触市场上对算力租赁的需求

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00:09:51,179 --> 00:09:53,789
是需要足够的钱的

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00:09:53,789 --> 00:09:56,629
现在能花大钱的是科技巨头

228
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像是亚马逊

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00:09:58,149 --> 00:10:01,379
谷歌微软meta等云巨头

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CRWV甲骨文等也想当算力房东

231
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但借来的钱和巨头自己的钱是两回事啦

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你借钱

233
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那利息就会吃掉大量的利润

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数据中心的折旧年限也是一个大问题

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如果折旧加速

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利润就要损失更多

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在AI浪潮中

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半导体是淘金热的

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卖铲子的人

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00:10:26,509 --> 00:10:29,149
不管谁的大模型最后胜出

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半导体都先赚到了钱

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所以半导体板块越炒越热门

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3年人工智能行情下来

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泡沫没有破

245
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还越吹越大了

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00:10:40,078 --> 00:10:44,158
费城半导体指数这一轮上涨是直线垂直上涨

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角度斜率很高

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有严重的formal情绪

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00:10:48,289 --> 00:10:51,669
这是一个包含30只成份股的行业指数

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一直以来都是牛股集中营

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但是最近涨幅巨大

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一个月的时间已经涨了68%

253
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因为上涨的斜率过大

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涨的人眼红

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风险其实正在酝酿

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我手上有半导体

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但不是重仓

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所以要说没吃几个葡萄

259
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说葡萄酸也是可以的

260
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不管是指数还是个股

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垂直上涨的

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通常坚持不了多久

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因为来钱太快啦

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投资者会快进快出

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换手率非常高

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拿今天成交最火爆的美光科技来说

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上涨15.49%

268
00:11:31,009 --> 00:11:33,259
换手率5.82%

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成交金额456亿美元啊

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换手率高啊

271
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说明交易活跃

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投资者快进快出

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因为怕大涨没捞到好处

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所以赶快进来买

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上涨很快

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垂直上涨

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一会儿就赚钱了

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一看位置这么高

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拿也拿不住

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赶快的又卖出

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所以这才有了高位高换手

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成交才会这么活跃

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所以我认为

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直线上涨透支着多头的能量容易耗尽

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这又称为超买

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超买的指标

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最终是会得到修正的

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00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,980
但是前两天有观众问存储股还能不能买

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我的回答是可以买

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00:12:15,818 --> 00:12:19,678
反正炒个三五天肯定是要买交易活跃的

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3年后不好说

292
00:12:21,470 --> 00:12:24,600
三天还是可以有机会捞一票的

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00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:28,899
预计6月份马斯克的SPACEX将会上市

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这将是一上市就是科技八巨头之一的明星股

295
00:12:32,970 --> 00:12:38,210
那么它上市是机会还是一个重大调整的开始呢

296
00:12:38,210 --> 00:12:41,120
啊目前市场上有一定的讨论

297
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,740
木头姐在昨天的采访中

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00:12:43,740 --> 00:12:46,379
非常看好马斯克的两家公司

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00:12:46,379 --> 00:12:51,068
他说现在SPACEX的市场需求是如饥似渴

300
00:12:51,068 --> 00:12:54,489
对于那些渴望分一杯羹的机构和高

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净值人群来说

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要上市卖出的筹码根本不够分

303
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他预测IPO初期会出现严重的供需失衡

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不过我从别的一些人的文章中看到

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高估值的超级大盘股上市

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00:13:09,509 --> 00:13:11,818
最终可能要调整好几年

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调整完才是最好的买入时机

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00:13:14,889 --> 00:13:18,049
SPACEX上市后初期应该会炒高

309
00:13:18,049 --> 00:13:22,059
但上市后两三年估计会经历一次深度调整

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木头姐看好特斯拉就更不用说了

311
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,840
要不是2020年特斯拉暴涨

312
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,019
木头姐哪会成为明星投资经理呢

313
00:13:31,019 --> 00:13:33,059
这次木头姐预测

314
00:13:33,059 --> 00:13:37,840
特斯拉将会上涨到4600美元啊

315
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,100
4600美元的特斯拉

316
00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:42,820
是要达到17万亿的总市值

317
00:13:42,820 --> 00:13:45,399
印钞机要冒烟啦

318
00:13:45,969 --> 00:13:47,929
好下面回答一个问题

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今年OpenAI和ANTHROPIC的上市

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会是MICROSOFT和甲骨文的催化剂吗

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微软和甲骨文

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各有5000亿左右的未履行商业订单义务

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其中有一块就是OpenAI和ANTHROPIC签的

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这些订单是未来确定的

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收入没错

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但能不能拿到钱呢

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如果AI初创公司上市了

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他们从二级市场上融资来的钱

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就可以向云服务提供商付款上市

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因此对微软和甲骨文是有利的

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市场上有一则流传的分析称

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OpenAI要是被马斯克告赢了

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对微软的冲击很大

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好假设这个事儿成立

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那么这个事情的反面就是

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如果OpenAI成为公众公司

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那会有利于微软

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甲骨文在经历了去年一波重大调整后

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最近有见底的迹象

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这个看起来是一个三重底形态

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应该跌的差不多了

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00:14:51,090 --> 00:14:53,470
好那今天的节目就分享到这里

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感谢大家收看

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祝大家周末愉快

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我们下期节目再见

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拜拜

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