摩根大通-日本股票策略：日本股市进入3益率阶段；该投向哪里，AI和金融？-260521

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,000
欢迎来到今天的拆解分享

2
00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:03,140
大家发现没有

3
00:00:03,140 --> 00:00:06,559
最近整个金融界都在死死盯着同一个指标

4
00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,980
日本长期收益率正在快速攀升

5
00:00:09,980 --> 00:00:13,699
在这个廉价资金时代即将画上句号的当口

6
00:00:13,699 --> 00:00:16,859
这对日本甚至是咱们全球的投资者来说

7
00:00:16,859 --> 00:00:18,379
到底意味着什么

8
00:00:18,379 --> 00:00:20,559
其实大家现在心里都在打鼓

9
00:00:20,559 --> 00:00:22,739
都在问一个非常核心的问题

10
00:00:22,739 --> 00:00:26,750
收益率这么猛的一标是不是在拉响警报

11
00:00:26,750 --> 00:00:31,439
会不会搞出股票债券和日元毁灭性的三杀惨剧

12
00:00:31,439 --> 00:00:32,579
最要命的是

13
00:00:32,579 --> 00:00:34,579
现在炒的火热的AI行情

14
00:00:34,579 --> 00:00:37,030
会不会就这么被直接带走了

15
00:00:37,030 --> 00:00:37,890
别急

16
00:00:37,890 --> 00:00:39,750
咱们今天就来层层剥茧

17
00:00:39,750 --> 00:00:41,179
拿数据说话

18
00:00:41,179 --> 00:00:42,380
咱们先来看一看

19
00:00:42,380 --> 00:00:45,679
这个让所有人焦虑的源头到底长什么样

20
00:00:45,679 --> 00:00:46,899
大家看看图上

21
00:00:46,899 --> 00:00:49,780
日本10年期国债收益率最近的走势

22
00:00:49,780 --> 00:00:52,700
这条线简直是垂直往上窜啊

23
00:00:52,700 --> 00:00:54,020
速度快的吓人

24
00:00:54,020 --> 00:00:57,200
而且你想这事儿根本没局限在日本国内

25
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,299
它甚至像水波纹一样扩散到了全球

26
00:01:00,299 --> 00:01:03,780
连美国的收益率都被他给硬生生拽上去了

27
00:01:03,780 --> 00:01:06,159
日本长久以来的极低利率环境

28
00:01:06,159 --> 00:01:08,280
看来是真的要大地震了

29
00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,109
那到底是谁在背后猛踩尤文呢

30
00:01:11,109 --> 00:01:13,650
其实说白了就两股核心力量

31
00:01:13,650 --> 00:01:16,329
首先是外部成本的疯狂挤压

32
00:01:16,329 --> 00:01:19,459
尤其是那个居高不下的进口油价

33
00:01:19,459 --> 00:01:22,260
要知道日本可是个能源进口大户

34
00:01:22,260 --> 00:01:23,359
油价一涨

35
00:01:23,359 --> 00:01:25,759
输入性通胀压力直接拉满

36
00:01:25,759 --> 00:01:28,519
其次呢就是市场对钱袋子的担忧了

37
00:01:28,519 --> 00:01:29,698
你可能听说了

38
00:01:29,698 --> 00:01:31,778
日本政府在讨论补充预算

39
00:01:31,778 --> 00:01:34,409
甚至打算给人均发个5万日元的现金

40
00:01:34,409 --> 00:01:35,349
大家一听

41
00:01:35,349 --> 00:01:36,069
好家伙

42
00:01:36,069 --> 00:01:37,390
这得发多少债啊

43
00:01:37,390 --> 00:01:38,819
财政扛得住吗

44
00:01:38,819 --> 00:01:40,540
这两把火一凑一块儿

45
00:01:40,540 --> 00:01:42,620
直接就把收益率给点着了

46
00:01:42,620 --> 00:01:44,599
这火烧的这么旺

47
00:01:44,599 --> 00:01:46,530
市场是不是真要崩了

48
00:01:46,530 --> 00:01:47,530
这时候啊

49
00:01:47,530 --> 00:01:49,689
摩根大通的最新策略报告

50
00:01:49,689 --> 00:01:51,819
给出了一句非常关键的话

51
00:01:51,819 --> 00:01:53,420
他们原话是这么说的

52
00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:56,900
我们认为即使收益率达到300个chant

53
00:01:56,900 --> 00:01:59,500
日本股市依然能稳住上升趋势

54
00:01:59,500 --> 00:02:03,500
不会崩盘唉这就好比给大家吃了一颗定心丸

55
00:02:03,500 --> 00:02:05,840
说到底他是在提醒咱们

56
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,680
千万别被短期的剧烈波动给唬住了

57
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,000
市场的基本面其实硬着呢

58
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,240
你可能会纳闷

59
00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,340
凭什么SUPERCENT的收益率都砸不垮市场

60
00:02:15,340 --> 00:02:18,419
其实如果你把眼光放长远一点

61
00:02:18,419 --> 00:02:19,379
算一笔账

62
00:02:19,379 --> 00:02:21,780
日本政府定下的2030财年

63
00:02:21,780 --> 00:02:24,139
潜在经济增长率是1.1percent

64
00:02:24,139 --> 00:02:25,849
通胀目标是2PERS

65
00:02:25,849 --> 00:02:27,389
这两个数加起来

66
00:02:27,389 --> 00:02:29,909
10年期国债收益率走到3percent

67
00:02:29,909 --> 00:02:32,009
简直就是顺理成章的事嘛

68
00:02:32,009 --> 00:02:33,490
从宏观大逻辑上看

69
00:02:33,490 --> 00:02:34,990
这再合理不过了

70
00:02:34,990 --> 00:02:36,909
那为什么大家还这么慌呢

71
00:02:36,909 --> 00:02:39,409
怪就怪在它来的实在是太快了

72
00:02:39,409 --> 00:02:41,050
快得就像一阵龙卷风

73
00:02:41,050 --> 00:02:42,770
市场根本来不及消化

74
00:02:42,770 --> 00:02:44,479
所以才会被吓一跳

75
00:02:44,479 --> 00:02:46,400
不过就算3%

76
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:47,319
咱们能扛住

77
00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:49,240
也绝对不能掉以轻心

78
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:50,639
摩根大通在报告里

79
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:52,879
可是画了一条非常清晰的红线

80
00:02:52,879 --> 00:02:54,900
3.5帕没错

81
00:02:54,900 --> 00:02:57,599
一电10年期收益率摸到3.5帕

82
00:02:57,599 --> 00:03:00,009
那才算是真正踏进了危险区

83
00:03:00,009 --> 00:03:00,830
为什么

84
00:03:00,830 --> 00:03:02,349
因为过了这道坎儿

85
00:03:02,349 --> 00:03:04,250
日本那些区域性金融系统

86
00:03:04,250 --> 00:03:07,599
就要面临真刀真枪的实质性负面冲击了

87
00:03:07,599 --> 00:03:11,039
这个数字绝对是咱们接下来要死死盯住的

88
00:03:11,039 --> 00:03:11,960
警戒水位

89
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:12,860
听到这儿

90
00:03:12,860 --> 00:03:13,960
你可能会觉得

91
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:15,259
那区域性银行

92
00:03:15,259 --> 00:03:18,340
现在肯定急得像热锅上的蚂蚁了吧

93
00:03:18,340 --> 00:03:21,400
但其实人家早就开始抱团取暖

94
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:22,699
积极自救了

95
00:03:22,699 --> 00:03:24,449
你看看这些大动作

96
00:03:24,449 --> 00:03:27,569
苍银银行和陆奥银行直接合并了

97
00:03:27,569 --> 00:03:28,530
靖港银行

98
00:03:28,530 --> 00:03:31,870
也和山梨中央银行搞起了全面业务联盟

99
00:03:35,090 --> 00:03:37,909
硬生生的把整个金融系统的抗风险能力

100
00:03:37,909 --> 00:03:39,300
给拔高了一大截

101
00:03:39,300 --> 00:03:41,860
所以面对收益率上涨的逆风

102
00:03:41,860 --> 00:03:44,159
他们反而建起了一道防火墙

103
00:03:44,159 --> 00:03:46,409
韧性十足好

104
00:03:46,409 --> 00:03:47,509
聊完了银行

105
00:03:47,509 --> 00:03:50,050
咱们再把镜头切到企业这边

106
00:03:50,050 --> 00:03:51,370
收益率飙升

107
00:03:51,370 --> 00:03:53,849
是不是所有公司都得跟着倒霉

108
00:03:53,849 --> 00:03:55,129
绝对不是

109
00:03:55,129 --> 00:03:58,330
为了搞清楚这事到底怎么影响咱们的投资组合

110
00:03:58,330 --> 00:04:01,930
必须得看看各行业之间的这种巨大反差

111
00:04:01,930 --> 00:04:04,969
说白了这场加息风暴特别无情

112
00:04:04,969 --> 00:04:07,019
直接把市场劈成了两半

113
00:04:07,019 --> 00:04:09,239
一半是债台高筑的受害者

114
00:04:09,239 --> 00:04:11,359
另一半呢则是轻资产

115
00:04:11,359 --> 00:04:13,149
低负债的幸存者

116
00:04:13,149 --> 00:04:15,329
这种差距简直是一目了然

117
00:04:15,329 --> 00:04:16,928
大家看看像房地产

118
00:04:16,928 --> 00:04:18,869
电力还有航空运输

119
00:04:18,869 --> 00:04:20,939
这些借钱借的特别多的行业

120
00:04:20,939 --> 00:04:22,300
利率一旦往上走

121
00:04:22,300 --> 00:04:24,560
他们的利息负担简直像滚雪球一样

122
00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:25,379
越来越重

123
00:04:25,379 --> 00:04:27,860
利润直接就被大口大口的吃掉了

124
00:04:27,860 --> 00:04:29,620
但是反过来你再瞅瞅电子

125
00:04:29,620 --> 00:04:30,339
电信

126
00:04:30,339 --> 00:04:31,879
还有制药这些行业

127
00:04:31,879 --> 00:04:33,459
人家平时就不怎么借钱

128
00:04:33,459 --> 00:04:35,100
债务比例低得惊人

129
00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:36,579
所以哪怕外面风大雨大

130
00:04:36,579 --> 00:04:38,079
人家基本上毫发无伤

131
00:04:38,079 --> 00:04:40,899
这就是传说中健康的资产负债表

132
00:04:40,899 --> 00:04:42,699
带来的绝对碾压啊

133
00:04:42,699 --> 00:04:45,339
把这些背景全捋清楚之后

134
00:04:45,339 --> 00:04:49,240
就引出了目前所有盯着全球科技热潮的投资者

135
00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,360
心里最痒痒的一个问题

136
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,339
既然有些行业能扛住

137
00:04:53,339 --> 00:04:56,970
那现在站在绝对风口浪尖上的AI板块呢

138
00:04:56,970 --> 00:04:58,990
日本这节节攀升的收益率

139
00:04:58,990 --> 00:05:01,790
会不会真的给这波轰轰烈烈的AI大牛市

140
00:05:01,790 --> 00:05:03,959
直接强行按下停止键

141
00:05:03,959 --> 00:05:06,430
答案呢可能会让你大吃一惊

142
00:05:06,430 --> 00:05:09,189
大家注意看图上标出的这些阴影阶段

143
00:05:09,189 --> 00:05:12,668
这代表的都是历史上日本收益率狂飙的时期

144
00:05:12,668 --> 00:05:16,639
但是你仔细瞅那条代表AI半导体股票的走势线

145
00:05:16,639 --> 00:05:18,860
在绝大多数这种艰难时刻

146
00:05:18,860 --> 00:05:20,240
人家不但没有跳水

147
00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:21,560
反而逆势起飞

148
00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,009
直接跑赢了大盘

149
00:05:23,009 --> 00:05:25,009
历史数据明摆着告诉我们

150
00:05:25,009 --> 00:05:27,750
AI板块对日本国内利率的免疫力

151
00:05:27,750 --> 00:05:29,889
绝对远远超出了我们的预期

152
00:05:29,889 --> 00:05:33,569
那他们到底是怎么做到逆风翻盘的呢

153
00:05:33,569 --> 00:05:36,069
其实秘密全藏在这三板斧里

154
00:05:36,069 --> 00:05:38,250
第一日本的AI产业

155
00:05:38,250 --> 00:05:41,810
早就把自己牢牢绑在了全球供应链的战车上

156
00:05:41,810 --> 00:05:45,069
尤其是跟美国的那些超级科技巨头息息相关

157
00:05:45,069 --> 00:05:49,439
第二真正决定他们估值高低能不能起飞的

158
00:05:49,439 --> 00:05:51,519
其实是美国的收益率环境

159
00:05:51,519 --> 00:05:54,220
压根儿就不是日本国内的几种利率

160
00:05:54,220 --> 00:05:56,379
最后一点咱们刚才也提到了

161
00:05:56,379 --> 00:06:00,000
这些科技和电子企业在国内根本没借多少钱

162
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,439
借贷比例极低

163
00:06:01,439 --> 00:06:04,560
这就意味着日本国内收益率的波动

164
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,110
根本无法从内部撼动他们强劲的赚钱能力

165
00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:11,529
而且啊在这一次游戏规则的重塑中

166
00:06:11,529 --> 00:06:14,149
AI绝对不是一个人在战斗

167
00:06:14,149 --> 00:06:15,410
除了科技股

168
00:06:15,410 --> 00:06:19,230
金融板块在现在这个收益率上升的新时代

169
00:06:19,230 --> 00:06:21,730
反倒占据了明显的相对优势

170
00:06:21,730 --> 00:06:23,670
你想利差一扩大

171
00:06:23,670 --> 00:06:25,350
金融机构赚钱的能力

172
00:06:25,350 --> 00:06:27,620
那就是肉眼可见地往上涨

173
00:06:27,620 --> 00:06:31,569
现在的局面是金融股和AI板块并驾齐驱

174
00:06:31,569 --> 00:06:34,110
实际上给日本市场的持续增长

175
00:06:34,110 --> 00:06:35,870
装上了一个动力爆表

176
00:06:35,870 --> 00:06:38,180
又非常稳健的双引擎

177
00:06:38,180 --> 00:06:41,699
所以你看随着日本不可避免地一脚迈进

178
00:06:43,259 --> 00:06:46,509
旧的投资剧本其实早就被撕碎重洗了

179
00:06:46,509 --> 00:06:48,990
那么是时候问问咱们自己了

180
00:06:48,990 --> 00:06:52,470
你的资产配置准备好迎接这个新时代了吗

181
00:06:52,470 --> 00:06:54,910
你有没有把筹码精准的放在

182
00:06:54,910 --> 00:06:58,430
那些天生就该在当前环境中大放异彩的板块

183
00:06:58,430 --> 00:07:00,149
比如AI和金融上呢

184
00:07:00,149 --> 00:07:03,769
要知道在每一次看似洗牌的结构性大变革背后

185
00:07:03,769 --> 00:07:05,949
往往都藏着最肥美的机会

186
00:07:05,949 --> 00:07:06,610
好了

187
00:07:06,610 --> 00:07:08,290
今天的硬核拆解就到这里

188
00:07:08,290 --> 00:07:09,589
希望对大家有启发

189
00:07:09,589 --> 00:07:10,939
咱们下期再见

评论采集失败

采集完成，该视频无弹幕