BV1CBJJ62Eh9 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,920 哈喽大家好 2 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:02,660 欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评 3 00:00:02,660 --> 00:00:03,480 我是sunny 4 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,540 今天是2026年6月12号星期五 5 00:00:06,540 --> 00:00:09,279 标普指数今天上涨37.16点 6 00:00:09,279 --> 00:00:10,759 涨幅0.5% 7 00:00:10,759 --> 00:00:12,779 延续昨天以来的反弹 8 00:00:12,779 --> 00:00:16,219 6月11号是SPACEX申购结束 9 00:00:16,219 --> 00:00:18,359 今天是上市申购 10 00:00:18,359 --> 00:00:19,960 锁定的资金释放后 11 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,059 市场的资金面略有好转 12 00:00:22,059 --> 00:00:25,259 大盘也从下跌中获得了喘息的机会 13 00:00:25,259 --> 00:00:26,899 从周线图上看 14 00:00:26,899 --> 00:00:30,820 大盘在九个周线阳线后连续两周调整 15 00:00:30,820 --> 00:00:33,979 本周的调整出现了周K线的下影线 16 00:00:33,979 --> 00:00:35,899 提示大盘下跌放缓 17 00:00:35,899 --> 00:00:37,560 有反弹迹象 18 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,659 预计下周股市有技术性反弹需求 19 00:00:40,659 --> 00:00:43,740 但会受制于美联储政策面的扰动 20 00:00:43,740 --> 00:00:47,039 纳斯达克指数今天上涨79.19点 21 00:00:47,039 --> 00:00:48,820 涨幅0.31% 22 00:00:48,820 --> 00:00:50,829 目前为技术性反弹 23 00:00:50,829 --> 00:00:52,270 如果顺利的话 24 00:00:52,270 --> 00:00:55,049 指数有可能会形成小型V字反转 25 00:00:55,049 --> 00:00:58,170 尝试历史高点2万7190点 26 00:00:58,170 --> 00:01:01,229 但是是不是会有这样的好事儿 27 00:01:01,229 --> 00:01:03,689 下周还得看一个人的脸色 28 00:01:03,689 --> 00:01:05,530 下周最大的看点就是 29 00:01:05,530 --> 00:01:08,030 美联储议息会议和卧室讲话 30 00:01:08,030 --> 00:01:09,829 议息会议按兵不动 31 00:01:09,829 --> 00:01:13,010 维持利率不变基本上是板上钉钉 32 00:01:13,010 --> 00:01:16,329 但6月会议材料会公布宏观数据预测 33 00:01:16,329 --> 00:01:18,379 PPT以及点状图 34 00:01:18,379 --> 00:01:21,760 点政图是官员对未来利率走势的预测 35 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,420 预期2026年的点政图将普遍上移一格 36 00:01:25,420 --> 00:01:27,659 也就是一次加息预期 37 00:01:27,659 --> 00:01:29,939 如果点阵图上移过多 38 00:01:29,939 --> 00:01:32,620 或者形成官员意见分歧的局面 39 00:01:32,620 --> 00:01:35,039 则对市场将更为干扰 40 00:01:35,039 --> 00:01:38,909 另外卧室曾表示不希望做过多的预测 41 00:01:38,909 --> 00:01:41,930 点阵图是美联储预期管理工具之一 42 00:01:41,930 --> 00:01:44,049 这次会不会被卧实删掉 43 00:01:44,049 --> 00:01:45,200 也不知道 44 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,260 如果W实取消了每个季度公布点阵图 45 00:01:48,260 --> 00:01:50,719 那市场将会陷入一种不确定性 46 00:01:50,719 --> 00:01:52,629 加重的恐慌情绪中 47 00:01:52,629 --> 00:01:56,989 握时下周首次记者会究竟是会给出鸽派信号 48 00:01:56,989 --> 00:01:58,189 还是鹰派 49 00:01:58,189 --> 00:02:00,769 是下周最大的不确定因素 50 00:02:00,769 --> 00:02:02,409 如果卧室放歌 51 00:02:02,409 --> 00:02:04,939 那股市将受到极大的鼓舞 52 00:02:04,939 --> 00:02:08,060 但如果放英要加息缩表 53 00:02:08,060 --> 00:02:09,680 股市有望结束反弹 54 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:11,139 继续下跌 55 00:02:11,139 --> 00:02:13,400 SPACEX今天上市了 56 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,639 市场的关注度全部在这支股票上面 57 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,219 新股在11:45分开盘 58 00:02:19,219 --> 00:02:21,159 开盘价是150 59 00:02:21,159 --> 00:02:23,139 开盘价即最低价 60 00:02:23,139 --> 00:02:26,180 股价开盘瞬间拉高到160以上 61 00:02:26,180 --> 00:02:28,080 全天多次冲高 62 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,080 最高价是176.52美元 63 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,000 最终以160.95美元收盘 64 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,219 出现了较长的上影线 65 00:02:36,219 --> 00:02:38,189 日线冲高回落 66 00:02:38,189 --> 00:02:41,169 全天换手率91.59% 67 00:02:41,169 --> 00:02:44,210 新股中签的人大概都卖了 68 00:02:44,490 --> 00:02:46,229 SPACEX上市后 69 00:02:46,229 --> 00:02:48,039 市值已经突破了2万亿 70 00:02:48,039 --> 00:02:48,960 昨天预测 71 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,840 市场认为上2万亿的概率是70% 72 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,590 说明预测市场的数字还是有一定的前瞻性 73 00:02:55,590 --> 00:02:59,960 目前SPCX为美股的第八大市值个股 74 00:02:59,960 --> 00:03:03,699 英伟达以4.78万亿仍占据古玩位置 75 00:03:03,699 --> 00:03:05,979 任由SPACEX再怎么炒作 76 00:03:05,979 --> 00:03:08,689 都很难以合理的理由翻倍 77 00:03:08,689 --> 00:03:12,389 假设SPACEX翻倍就会超过谷歌 78 00:03:12,389 --> 00:03:13,710 接近英伟达 79 00:03:13,710 --> 00:03:16,009 而在美股前十大个股当中 80 00:03:16,009 --> 00:03:20,310 没有一只是像SPACEX这样的净利润亏损的股票 81 00:03:20,310 --> 00:03:22,689 排在他前面的是台积电 82 00:03:22,689 --> 00:03:23,469 台积电 83 00:03:23,469 --> 00:03:26,810 一个季度的营业收入是354.9亿 84 00:03:26,810 --> 00:03:29,090 净利润有180亿美元 85 00:03:29,090 --> 00:03:31,460 一年的利润大几百亿 86 00:03:31,460 --> 00:03:34,490 排在SPACEF后面的是博通 87 00:03:34,490 --> 00:03:37,110 一个季度营收221.9亿 88 00:03:37,110 --> 00:03:39,009 净利润有93亿 89 00:03:39,009 --> 00:03:41,099 一年的利润有300多亿 90 00:03:41,099 --> 00:03:44,000 SPACEX1年亏损49亿 91 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,439 当然我们不能光看过去一年 92 00:03:46,439 --> 00:03:48,060 或者是一个季度的业绩 93 00:03:48,060 --> 00:03:50,050 目光要放长远 94 00:03:50,050 --> 00:03:52,969 多头主要是靠信仰支撑股价 95 00:03:52,969 --> 00:03:55,139 这点和特斯拉一样 96 00:03:55,139 --> 00:03:58,460 SPACEX拥有重载火箭回收技术 97 00:03:58,460 --> 00:04:00,659 在商业航天发射市场上 98 00:04:00,659 --> 00:04:03,259 SPACEX竞争对手有限 99 00:04:03,259 --> 00:04:06,500 星链卫星互联网是公司的现金流 100 00:04:06,500 --> 00:04:09,419 2025年全年营收114亿 101 00:04:09,419 --> 00:04:12,759 是SPACEX旗下唯一赚钱的业务 102 00:04:12,759 --> 00:04:15,939 2023年星链用户230万 103 00:04:15,939 --> 00:04:18,000 2024年440万 104 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,168 2025年890万 105 00:04:20,168 --> 00:04:21,608 几乎年年翻倍 106 00:04:21,608 --> 00:04:23,209 增长速度迅猛 107 00:04:23,209 --> 00:04:25,269 截止2026年的6月 108 00:04:25,269 --> 00:04:28,980 新列的全球付费用户已经突破1200万 109 00:04:28,980 --> 00:04:32,399 覆盖了全球160多个国家和地区 110 00:04:32,399 --> 00:04:34,000 在偏远地区 111 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,120 海事航运 112 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:36,740 航空宽带等领域 113 00:04:36,740 --> 00:04:38,180 用户别无选择 114 00:04:38,180 --> 00:04:40,490 所以收入极为稳定 115 00:04:40,490 --> 00:04:43,550 space x的XAI人工智能业务 116 00:04:43,550 --> 00:04:47,569 刚刚和ANTHROPIC和谷歌签订了租赁协议 117 00:04:47,569 --> 00:04:51,110 分别按月付租金12.5亿和9.2亿 118 00:04:51,110 --> 00:04:53,360 一年的收入260亿 119 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,750 他是把自己用不完的算力出租给别人 120 00:04:56,750 --> 00:04:58,110 这怎么说呢 121 00:04:58,110 --> 00:05:02,029 说明GROCK自己用不完自己的算力有剩余 122 00:05:02,029 --> 00:05:04,889 才把它租给别的模型来使用 123 00:05:04,889 --> 00:05:07,689 未来可能还有数据中心上天的概念 124 00:05:08,769 --> 00:05:12,259 指数公司还专门为了巨头上市改了规则 125 00:05:12,259 --> 00:05:17,199 SPCX最快将在15天后纳入纳指100指数 126 00:05:17,199 --> 00:05:20,000 五个交易日后加入罗素1000 127 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,480 这意味着被动投资ETF到时必须按指数权重配置 128 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:25,480 这支股票 129 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,139 按以前的经验 130 00:05:27,139 --> 00:05:30,540 在一只股票被做出加入指数的决定之后 131 00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:33,019 股价往往倾向于提前上涨 132 00:05:33,019 --> 00:05:35,509 准备高价卖给ETF们 133 00:05:35,509 --> 00:05:37,430 但这里面有一个问题 134 00:05:37,430 --> 00:05:41,408 就是流通盘和总股本之间的巨大落差 135 00:05:41,408 --> 00:05:44,809 这一次SPACEX上市只有4.2% 136 00:05:44,809 --> 00:05:45,889 是流通股 137 00:05:45,889 --> 00:05:47,949 收盘市值2.1万亿 138 00:05:47,949 --> 00:05:50,819 流通股只有895亿 139 00:05:50,819 --> 00:05:54,160 这相当于是一个小区有1000套房 140 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,319 第一期销售只卖四套房 141 00:05:57,319 --> 00:05:59,699 之前广告做了铺天盖地 142 00:05:59,699 --> 00:06:01,120 大家都来买房 143 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,240 却只有四套房的时候 144 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:04,360 又要抽签 145 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:05,500 又要排队的 146 00:06:05,500 --> 00:06:07,490 搞得好像供不应求 147 00:06:07,490 --> 00:06:11,689 然后用这四套房的价钱直接乘以1000 148 00:06:11,689 --> 00:06:14,319 得到整个小区的总市值 149 00:06:14,319 --> 00:06:15,000 好 150 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,120 那关键在于 151 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,939 剩下的996套房子会陆续解禁 152 00:06:19,939 --> 00:06:21,269 拿出来卖 153 00:06:21,269 --> 00:06:23,389 等到他们拿出来卖的时候 154 00:06:23,389 --> 00:06:25,350 供求关系就会改变 155 00:06:25,350 --> 00:06:26,949 最早的一批解禁 156 00:06:26,949 --> 00:06:29,519 是二季度财报后的第二个交易日 157 00:06:29,519 --> 00:06:33,240 内部人士可以出售其受限股份的20% 158 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,600 如果Q2财报发布后的十个交易日内 159 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,899 有五天股价高于IPO发行价的130% 160 00:06:40,899 --> 00:06:43,949 则又可以额外接近10%的股份 161 00:06:43,949 --> 00:06:46,649 Q2财报的具体日期还没有定 162 00:06:46,649 --> 00:06:49,360 但估计会在今年的8月左右 163 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,100 在三季度财报后进一步解禁28% 164 00:06:53,100 --> 00:06:55,279 剩下的所有未解禁股份 165 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,639 将在上市180天后全部解锁 166 00:06:58,879 --> 00:07:01,459 马斯克本人的股票另签署协议 167 00:07:01,459 --> 00:07:03,040 不会这么快解禁 168 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,269 他的股份将锁定一年 169 00:07:05,269 --> 00:07:09,250 那你看用一小部分流通股把股价炒高 170 00:07:09,250 --> 00:07:11,209 然后纳入ETF 171 00:07:11,209 --> 00:07:12,889 让被动基金接盘 172 00:07:12,889 --> 00:07:15,790 最后再陆续让限售股解禁 173 00:07:15,790 --> 00:07:19,149 限售股解禁后肯定会有卖出的 174 00:07:19,149 --> 00:07:23,110 毕竟内部员工连食堂的人都财务自由了 175 00:07:23,110 --> 00:07:25,490 唉在德州买豪宅啦 176 00:07:25,490 --> 00:07:28,610 另外AI算力租给竞争对手 177 00:07:28,610 --> 00:07:30,509 这件事非常奇怪 178 00:07:30,509 --> 00:07:33,379 这说明可能在美化财报 179 00:07:33,379 --> 00:07:36,279 本来XAI也是烧钱做GROCK 180 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,529 对财报是一个极大的美化 181 00:07:42,529 --> 00:07:44,110 如果不是美化报表 182 00:07:44,110 --> 00:07:48,538 那至少也说明clock没有GEMINI和cloud需求大 183 00:07:48,538 --> 00:07:52,430 美化报表可能是为了撑住上市之初的股价 184 00:07:52,430 --> 00:07:55,009 随着解禁股票陆续卖出 185 00:07:55,009 --> 00:07:56,850 流通盘越来越大 186 00:07:56,850 --> 00:07:58,329 筹码供给增加 187 00:07:58,329 --> 00:08:00,798 股价上涨的压力会比较大 188 00:08:00,798 --> 00:08:03,639 尤其是在美股前十市值榜上 189 00:08:03,639 --> 00:08:07,029 SPCX的业绩实在是排不上号 190 00:08:07,029 --> 00:08:09,769 在历史上有规模的IPO个股中 191 00:08:09,769 --> 00:08:10,990 刚开始火爆 192 00:08:10,990 --> 00:08:13,230 后来大跌的也挺多的 193 00:08:13,230 --> 00:08:15,139 比如2012年的meta 194 00:08:15,139 --> 00:08:16,879 2014年的阿里巴巴 195 00:08:16,879 --> 00:08:20,939 2019年的UBER在一年内都是冲高回落 196 00:08:20,939 --> 00:08:22,269 表现不佳 197 00:08:22,269 --> 00:08:23,790 起初流通盘小 198 00:08:23,790 --> 00:08:24,750 知名度高 199 00:08:24,750 --> 00:08:27,790 爆炒新股定价过于情绪化 200 00:08:27,790 --> 00:08:30,009 没有靠谱的估值逻辑 201 00:08:30,009 --> 00:08:31,209 几个月之后 202 00:08:31,209 --> 00:08:32,330 限售股解禁 203 00:08:32,330 --> 00:08:34,308 抛售压力持续不断 204 00:08:34,308 --> 00:08:37,509 所以新股刚开始可能波动大 205 00:08:37,509 --> 00:08:38,828 吸引人投机 206 00:08:38,828 --> 00:08:43,360 但炒新过后一地鸡毛的股票还是很多的 207 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,039 当市场趋于理智 208 00:08:45,039 --> 00:08:46,820 价格变得合理的时候 209 00:08:46,820 --> 00:08:50,190 才是长期价值投资者入市的时机 210 00:08:50,190 --> 00:08:53,149 这个周末不知道会不会突发消息 211 00:08:53,149 --> 00:08:55,759 但愿美伊能签和平协议 212 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,649 美国与伊朗之间已经达成协议的最终文本 213 00:09:01,649 --> 00:09:02,929 白宫官员称 214 00:09:02,929 --> 00:09:05,269 可能在未来几天内签署协议 215 00:09:05,269 --> 00:09:07,570 但并不是百分之百有信心 216 00:09:07,570 --> 00:09:10,720 可能有85%的信心达成协议 217 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,379 目前最新的协议是什么样的呢 218 00:09:13,379 --> 00:09:16,120 各方披露的消息有显著差异 219 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,669 川普还发帖否认了媒体披露的部分条款 220 00:09:19,669 --> 00:09:24,318 称公开报道的内容与书面达成的条款毫无关系 221 00:09:24,318 --> 00:09:25,619 对于美国来说 222 00:09:25,619 --> 00:09:29,499 核心诉求仍然是将伊朗的浓缩铀移出境外 223 00:09:29,499 --> 00:09:31,419 建立长期监督机制 224 00:09:31,419 --> 00:09:35,559 重新开放霍尔木兹海峡是否最终签得下来 225 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,289 也还是不确定 226 00:09:37,289 --> 00:09:38,850 存储股涨得好 227 00:09:38,850 --> 00:09:42,490 但是今天开始有一个关于去杠杆的利空出现 228 00:09:42,490 --> 00:09:46,519 隔夜韩国三星电子和海力士一度大涨 229 00:09:46,519 --> 00:09:48,299 但华尔街大型银行 230 00:09:48,299 --> 00:09:51,759 正在限制对冲基金对这些股票的杠杆 231 00:09:52,039 --> 00:09:53,620 花旗摩根大通 232 00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:55,980 高盛等银行通过互换交易 233 00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:58,919 提高了这些股票多头的融资成本 234 00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:01,759 并且收紧了新增交易规模 235 00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:03,779 摩根士丹利明确表示 236 00:10:03,779 --> 00:10:06,909 不再接受三星和海力士的新互换交易 237 00:10:06,909 --> 00:10:07,970 美国银行 238 00:10:07,970 --> 00:10:12,610 法巴银行和瑞银等也纷纷采取相应的调整措施 239 00:10:12,610 --> 00:10:16,850 这种所谓的互换交易或者叫掉期交易 240 00:10:16,850 --> 00:10:18,500 是怎么做的呢 241 00:10:18,500 --> 00:10:21,139 对冲基金和银行签署了一个协议 242 00:10:21,139 --> 00:10:24,879 对冲基金不直接买海力士或三星的股票 243 00:10:24,879 --> 00:10:29,389 而是用小额保证金锁定百分之百股票的涨跌 244 00:10:29,389 --> 00:10:31,169 对手盘是银行 245 00:10:31,169 --> 00:10:35,870 银行从市场上买入等量股票或者内部客户当中 246 00:10:35,870 --> 00:10:38,009 找个对手盘撮合成交 247 00:10:38,009 --> 00:10:40,590 但是股票涨势强劲 248 00:10:40,590 --> 00:10:42,730 找不到什么要做空的对手盘 249 00:10:42,730 --> 00:10:45,389 银行也不想承担股票风险 250 00:10:45,389 --> 00:10:47,269 所以就开始限制多头 251 00:10:47,269 --> 00:10:49,639 继续开更多的调器出来 252 00:10:49,639 --> 00:10:51,080 昨天的评论中 253 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:52,919 有观众说不明白 254 00:10:52,919 --> 00:10:56,629 博主为什么就要死磕那些已经掉队的股票呢 255 00:10:56,629 --> 00:11:00,110 听到你昨天说的20万的账户已经淹水了 256 00:11:00,110 --> 00:11:02,470 有反弹的话就逢高出货 257 00:11:02,470 --> 00:11:04,049 感觉有点悲凉 258 00:11:04,049 --> 00:11:08,190 为什么不能跟上大盘布局一些存储股呢 259 00:11:08,190 --> 00:11:10,629 啊当股票盈利多的时候 260 00:11:10,629 --> 00:11:13,149 我是非常难做决定卖出的 261 00:11:13,149 --> 00:11:15,470 我这个账户不是主力账户 262 00:11:15,470 --> 00:11:18,750 卖出一些也不至于产生大额税款 263 00:11:18,750 --> 00:11:21,529 假设目前有8万的未实现盈利 264 00:11:21,529 --> 00:11:24,389 卖出一半就出现了4万的收入 265 00:11:24,389 --> 00:11:27,059 要计入全年收入当中去纳税 266 00:11:27,059 --> 00:11:29,159 亏损的股票我舍得卖啊 267 00:11:29,159 --> 00:11:32,019 盈利越多的股票就越不舍得卖 268 00:11:32,019 --> 00:11:33,539 原因很简单 269 00:11:33,539 --> 00:11:35,500 交税是百分之百 270 00:11:35,500 --> 00:11:37,559 假设税率是40% 271 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,259 那就是实打实的损失 272 00:11:39,259 --> 00:11:40,889 盈利的40% 273 00:11:40,889 --> 00:11:43,700 数学期望是负的40% 274 00:11:43,700 --> 00:11:47,600 继续持有亏损40%的概率是50% 275 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,899 那么数学期望就是负的20% 276 00:11:50,899 --> 00:11:53,480 那我为什么要选择一个数学期望 277 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,578 负得更多的选项呢 278 00:11:55,578 --> 00:11:59,259 2022年发生了一件令我追悔莫及的事儿 279 00:11:59,259 --> 00:12:00,859 就是当时一直说啊 280 00:12:00,859 --> 00:12:01,759 不想交税 281 00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:03,309 不卖出英伟达 282 00:12:03,309 --> 00:12:05,549 但是后来英伟达跌的多了 283 00:12:05,549 --> 00:12:06,889 我就卖出了 284 00:12:06,889 --> 00:12:07,970 有盈利 285 00:12:07,970 --> 00:12:10,620 所以交了一些税之后 286 00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:13,360 英伟达继续跌了有40%吧 287 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,360 但是我没有再买回来 288 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,919 于是我就错过了十倍英伟达涨幅 289 00:12:18,919 --> 00:12:22,220 但是也不能死抠交税这个事儿啊 290 00:12:22,220 --> 00:12:23,440 赚了钱了 291 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:24,789 该交就交 292 00:12:24,789 --> 00:12:26,769 卖出股票是可以的 293 00:12:26,769 --> 00:12:29,120 关键在于要有新的机会 294 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,700 错过的机会并不是新的机会 295 00:12:31,700 --> 00:12:34,179 追高别人拉高了十倍的股 296 00:12:34,179 --> 00:12:36,289 我不怎么下得了手啊 297 00:12:36,289 --> 00:12:38,549 好那今天的节目就分享到这里 298 00:12:38,549 --> 00:12:39,509 感谢大家收看 299 00:12:39,509 --> 00:12:40,610 祝大家周末愉快 300 00:12:40,610 --> 00:12:41,909 我们下期节目再见 301 00:12:41,909 --> 00:12:42,639 拜拜
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