BV1CBJJ62EYN · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:05,980 大家好 2 00:00:05,980 --> 00:00:08,400 今天是6月12日星期五 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,759 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:10,759 --> 00:00:13,759 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:13,759 --> 00:00:17,359 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票 6 00:00:19,100 --> 00:00:21,559 SPACEX创纪录上市 7 00:00:21,559 --> 00:00:26,019 马斯克登顶人类首位万亿富翁 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,649 SPACEX创纪录上市 9 00:00:30,649 --> 00:00:33,509 周五在纳斯达克正式挂牌 10 00:00:33,509 --> 00:00:34,729 股价大涨 11 00:00:34,729 --> 00:00:38,259 市值攀升至2万亿美元 12 00:00:38,259 --> 00:00:42,789 此次IPO发行价定为每股135美元 13 00:00:43,189 --> 00:00:45,350 募资高达750亿美元 14 00:00:45,350 --> 00:00:48,780 一举创下全球历史上规模最大的 15 00:00:48,780 --> 00:00:51,020 首次公开募股记录 16 00:00:51,020 --> 00:00:53,240 远超市场预期 17 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,060 马斯克登顶万亿富翁 18 00:00:56,060 --> 00:01:00,259 凭借SPACEX上市带来的巨额股权增值 19 00:01:00,259 --> 00:01:05,439 马斯克个人身家成功突破1.1万亿美元 20 00:01:05,439 --> 00:01:10,359 正式成为人类历史上首位万亿美元富翁 21 00:01:10,359 --> 00:01:13,680 此前其净资产已超4000亿美元 22 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,459 此次财富翻倍 23 00:01:15,459 --> 00:01:17,299 不仅创下历史记录 24 00:01:17,299 --> 00:01:20,879 更提前实现了财富跨越 25 00:01:22,500 --> 00:01:25,099 财富结构双重支撑 26 00:01:25,099 --> 00:01:28,430 马斯克持有SPACEX约一半股份 27 00:01:28,430 --> 00:01:32,370 仅这部分价值便超过1万亿美元 28 00:01:32,370 --> 00:01:34,890 叠加其持有的特斯拉股份 29 00:01:34,890 --> 00:01:37,590 构成了庞大的财富矩阵 30 00:01:37,590 --> 00:01:41,170 尽管特斯拉股价今年受多重因素影响 31 00:01:41,170 --> 00:01:43,769 累计下跌约14% 32 00:01:43,769 --> 00:01:46,930 但SPACEX的成功上市 33 00:01:46,930 --> 00:01:52,049 为其个人财富提供了强大的对冲与支撑 34 00:01:52,049 --> 00:01:54,200 特斯拉薪酬方案背景 35 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:58,200 马斯克此前曾有望通过特斯拉业绩目标 36 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,819 获得高达万亿美元的报酬 37 00:02:00,819 --> 00:02:02,920 该方案包含12档 38 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,040 股票激励 39 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,199 与汽车产量公司总市值等深度挂钩 40 00:02:08,199 --> 00:02:10,479 若需获得全部报酬 41 00:02:10,479 --> 00:02:13,158 特斯拉需达到2万亿美元市值 42 00:02:13,158 --> 00:02:17,679 并实现年交付2000万辆的极高目标 43 00:02:18,969 --> 00:02:21,189 特斯拉面临多重挑战 44 00:02:21,189 --> 00:02:24,409 特斯拉当前正面临严峻的市场考验 45 00:02:24,409 --> 00:02:25,909 除了来自底特律 46 00:02:25,909 --> 00:02:30,579 传统车企及中国新能源车企的激烈竞争外 47 00:02:30,579 --> 00:02:33,459 马斯克与美国总统特朗普的关联 48 00:02:33,459 --> 00:02:35,840 也引发了负面反应 49 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,800 这些因素导致特斯拉股价承压 50 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,199 但并未阻挡马斯克整体财富的飙升 51 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,959 改写全球财富格局 52 00:02:45,959 --> 00:02:48,558 马斯克成为首位万亿富翁 53 00:02:48,558 --> 00:02:51,838 彻底打破了此前人类财富天花板 54 00:02:51,838 --> 00:02:55,319 停留在千亿美元级别的格局 55 00:02:55,319 --> 00:02:56,599 这一里程碑事件 56 00:02:56,599 --> 00:03:01,789 不仅彰显了商业航天与新能源赛道的巨大潜力 57 00:03:01,789 --> 00:03:05,270 也标志着全球资本市场正式迈入 58 00:03:05,270 --> 00:03:09,229 由超级科技巨头主导的新时代 59 00:03:11,900 --> 00:03:14,479 估值离谱却遭疯抢 60 00:03:14,479 --> 00:03:19,460 SPACEXIPO引爆散户打新热潮 61 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,159 散户狂热与天价估值 62 00:03:25,159 --> 00:03:29,509 SPACEX新股发行价定为每股135美元 63 00:03:29,509 --> 00:03:33,129 总估值高达1.77万亿美元 64 00:03:33,129 --> 00:03:37,810 尽管市场普遍认为这一估值离谱至极 65 00:03:37,810 --> 00:03:41,449 但大量散户仍蜂拥申购 66 00:03:41,449 --> 00:03:43,710 不少投资者明确表示 67 00:03:43,710 --> 00:03:45,389 马斯克本人是他们 68 00:03:45,389 --> 00:03:48,780 坚定看好并买入该股的核心原因 69 00:03:48,780 --> 00:03:51,900 罕见的高比例散户配售 70 00:03:51,900 --> 00:03:54,860 本次IPO面向散户的配售比例 71 00:03:54,860 --> 00:03:57,229 高达20%出头 72 00:03:57,229 --> 00:04:01,430 远超常规新股5%至10%的比例 73 00:04:01,430 --> 00:04:05,349 富达证券等券商大幅降低了参与门槛 74 00:04:05,349 --> 00:04:08,960 仅需账户资产2000美元即可申请 75 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,479 让普通投资者更容易参与到 76 00:04:11,479 --> 00:04:14,919 这场万众瞩目的世纪资本盛宴 77 00:04:14,919 --> 00:04:19,658 中短线博弈与禁售规则 78 00:04:19,658 --> 00:04:22,619 许多散户并不打算长期持有 79 00:04:22,619 --> 00:04:26,250 而是压住上市首日的狂热情绪 80 00:04:26,250 --> 00:04:29,750 计划借大涨行情获利离场 81 00:04:29,750 --> 00:04:34,860 不过各大券商均设有防快速抛售规则 82 00:04:34,860 --> 00:04:37,420 若在上市后短期内清仓 83 00:04:37,420 --> 00:04:43,220 投资者将面临被限制参与未来新股申购的惩罚 84 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,699 马斯克愿景与业绩支撑 85 00:04:46,699 --> 00:04:48,959 投资者不愿看空马斯克 86 00:04:48,959 --> 00:04:52,180 是因为他总能将宏伟蓝图落地 87 00:04:52,180 --> 00:04:56,160 近期SPACEX敲定了与ANTHROPIC 88 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,259 谷歌的重磅算力合作 89 00:04:58,259 --> 00:04:58,959 订单 90 00:04:58,959 --> 00:05:01,329 大幅提升了营收预期 91 00:05:01,329 --> 00:05:04,250 基金经理测算到2030年 92 00:05:04,250 --> 00:05:08,569 SPACEX营收有望达到2000亿美元 93 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,899 踏空遗憾与瞬时布局 94 00:05:12,899 --> 00:05:17,350 部分散户曾因过早卖出特斯拉而抱憾终身 95 00:05:17,350 --> 00:05:22,910 因此极度害怕踏空这场新股界的超级晚 96 00:05:22,910 --> 00:05:27,350 即便是曾做空马斯克赛道巨亏的年轻投资者 97 00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:29,709 如今也选择顺势布局 98 00:05:29,709 --> 00:05:35,408 认为见证其兑现能力是一生仅有一次的机会 99 00:05:35,809 --> 00:05:38,629 长期看好太空全产业链 100 00:05:38,629 --> 00:05:41,488 也有投资者保持谨慎计划 101 00:05:41,488 --> 00:05:43,589 等待内部股东解禁 102 00:05:43,589 --> 00:05:46,689 股价寻底后再做长线布局 103 00:05:46,689 --> 00:05:49,310 更多人则着眼于未来 104 00:05:49,869 --> 00:05:52,009 认为短期看点是星链 105 00:05:52,009 --> 00:05:53,908 长期则压住太空 106 00:05:53,908 --> 00:05:56,209 矿物开采在轨 107 00:05:56,209 --> 00:05:59,350 AI数据中心等全产业链 108 00:05:59,350 --> 00:06:02,930 将其作为传承型投资 109 00:06:05,860 --> 00:06:07,899 黄仁勋盛赞万亿潜力 110 00:06:09,019 --> 00:06:13,259 marvel任命新CFO加速狂奔 111 00:06:14,459 --> 00:06:16,060 高管无缝过度 112 00:06:16,060 --> 00:06:16,899 Marvel 113 00:06:16,899 --> 00:06:23,199 marvel宣布任命adobe首席财务官den den 114 00:06:23,930 --> 00:06:25,589 为新任CFO 115 00:06:27,490 --> 00:06:31,959 他此前已在marvel董事会任职两年 116 00:06:31,959 --> 00:06:35,259 此番从董事转任管理核心 117 00:06:35,259 --> 00:06:38,269 被分析师视为一次无缝过渡 118 00:06:38,269 --> 00:06:42,430 公司同时重申了第二财季的业绩展望 119 00:06:42,629 --> 00:06:44,870 30年半导体财务经验 120 00:06:44,870 --> 00:06:47,829 他在半导体及企业技术领域 121 00:06:47,829 --> 00:06:50,980 拥有超30年财务领导经验 122 00:06:50,980 --> 00:06:53,100 加入AOPE前 123 00:06:53,100 --> 00:06:58,079 他曾任应用材料高级副总裁兼CFO 124 00:06:58,079 --> 00:07:03,639 恩智浦与菲斯卡尔执行副总裁兼CFO 125 00:07:03,639 --> 00:07:06,740 以及格新CFO 126 00:07:07,060 --> 00:07:11,579 具备深厚的行业背景与专业财务素养 127 00:07:13,129 --> 00:07:16,528 adopt高管离职隐不安 128 00:07:16,528 --> 00:07:20,269 他离职正值AOPT多事之秋 129 00:07:20,269 --> 00:07:23,709 三个月前及CEO已宣布卸任 130 00:07:23,709 --> 00:07:28,339 且公司股价年内累计下跌约37% 131 00:07:28,339 --> 00:07:30,459 投资者对同时面临 132 00:07:30,459 --> 00:07:35,500 CEO和CFO两大核心岗位的过渡感到不安 133 00:07:35,500 --> 00:07:38,980 市场情绪因此受到一定程度的压制 134 00:07:40,100 --> 00:07:43,079 marvel看重行业经验 135 00:07:43,079 --> 00:07:48,059 marvel董事长兼CEEOMATTMURPHY表示 136 00:07:48,059 --> 00:07:54,178 turn在半导体行业的财务领导经验极为罕见 137 00:07:54,178 --> 00:07:56,059 他在担任董事期间 138 00:07:56,059 --> 00:07:59,129 已深入了解公司的长期增长战略 139 00:07:59,129 --> 00:08:02,610 其专业能力将助力marvel在AI 140 00:08:02,610 --> 00:08:06,529 基础设施建设浪潮中持续取胜 141 00:08:08,300 --> 00:08:10,519 黄仁勋盛赞万亿潜力 142 00:08:10,519 --> 00:08:13,990 marvel今年股价累计上涨超230% 143 00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:17,689 此前英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开称 144 00:08:17,689 --> 00:08:20,730 marvel为下一个万亿美元公司 145 00:08:20,730 --> 00:08:23,329 便已向该公司投资20亿美元 146 00:08:23,329 --> 00:08:27,730 彰显了顶级科技巨头对其在AI基建领域 147 00:08:27,730 --> 00:08:30,120 核心价值的极度认可 148 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,539 未来营收预期高增长 149 00:08:32,539 --> 00:08:35,730 marvel对未来业绩充满信心 150 00:08:35,730 --> 00:08:39,970 预计2027财年营收将增长40% 151 00:08:39,970 --> 00:08:42,350 至近115亿美元 152 00:08:42,350 --> 00:08:45,450 2028财年进一步增长45% 153 00:08:45,450 --> 00:08:47,419 至165亿美元 154 00:08:47,419 --> 00:08:51,279 强劲的增长预期与高管的顺利交接 155 00:08:51,279 --> 00:08:55,769 为公司的长期发展奠定了坚实基础 156 00:08:56,049 --> 00:08:58,799 好我们看一下今天市场的表现 157 00:08:58,799 --> 00:09:01,679 纳指延续了反弹的态势 158 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:03,460 符合多头的想法 159 00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:05,490 我们看到阳线还是不错的 160 00:09:05,490 --> 00:09:07,889 收涨0.7%左右 161 00:09:07,889 --> 00:09:10,450 我们看一下5分钟图 162 00:09:11,769 --> 00:09:14,409 我们在欧洲时代呢是希望他有个回踩 163 00:09:14,409 --> 00:09:17,619 指地换到当前回踩止跌 164 00:09:17,619 --> 00:09:18,359 回踩止跌呀 165 00:09:18,359 --> 00:09:19,719 指呀指呀指是吧 166 00:09:19,719 --> 00:09:21,119 这里不断的止跌 167 00:09:21,119 --> 00:09:23,730 这样的话空头不强哈 168 00:09:24,250 --> 00:09:26,549 暂时来说呢还是多头更强 169 00:09:26,549 --> 00:09:31,620 因此应该假设多头啊后续整体上涨的概率高吧 170 00:09:31,620 --> 00:09:34,080 但并不意味着说他不会再掉下来哈 171 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:35,539 它有可能继续再震一震 172 00:09:35,539 --> 00:09:37,318 要提防这种情况 173 00:09:37,318 --> 00:09:40,239 也可能在这里窄幅横盘波动一下啊 174 00:09:40,239 --> 00:09:41,879 要注意 175 00:09:43,009 --> 00:09:44,409 我们看一下罗素 176 00:09:44,409 --> 00:09:46,190 罗素收出了阳线 177 00:09:46,190 --> 00:09:46,990 创了新高 178 00:09:46,990 --> 00:09:48,370 继续看涨 179 00:09:48,370 --> 00:09:50,818 说他点不反转的 180 00:09:51,259 --> 00:09:52,979 空投是可以反转的 181 00:09:52,979 --> 00:09:55,458 但他没有使劲啊对吧 182 00:09:55,458 --> 00:09:57,879 所以反转向下反转失败了 183 00:09:57,879 --> 00:10:00,529 那多头继续继续看涨了嗯 184 00:10:00,529 --> 00:10:02,330 继续看涨就可以了 185 00:10:02,330 --> 00:10:05,970 把这趋势线呢画到这里来是吧 186 00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:10,590 嗯好我们看一下倒置哎 187 00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:12,080 杨先吧 188 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:13,860 没啥可说的哈 189 00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:15,340 看下标普 190 00:10:15,340 --> 00:10:16,480 标普也是哈 191 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,909 阳线不妨把均线直接调过来得了是吧 192 00:10:20,909 --> 00:10:24,849 我们说多头的回归必须得连续的强势吧 193 00:10:25,288 --> 00:10:27,389 空头也可以往下再回调一点哈 194 00:10:27,389 --> 00:10:30,308 比如说到这个横前置到前期这个支撑区 195 00:10:30,308 --> 00:10:32,309 但他没有啊啊 196 00:10:32,309 --> 00:10:34,309 特别是昨天的阳线比较强 197 00:10:34,309 --> 00:10:36,769 今天连续了连续给出阳线啊 198 00:10:36,769 --> 00:10:37,970 那如果今天再掉下来 199 00:10:37,970 --> 00:10:39,549 就有可能继续震荡下行 200 00:10:39,549 --> 00:10:41,899 把这个回撤呢再稍微深一点 201 00:10:41,899 --> 00:10:43,759 但市场不给这个机会哈 202 00:10:43,759 --> 00:10:45,139 直接就上去了 203 00:10:45,139 --> 00:10:47,000 说为什么要直接上去呢 204 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:48,720 因为他不想跌嗯 205 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,899 他不是不是太想跌啊 206 00:10:50,899 --> 00:10:52,539 他如果真的想跌的话 207 00:10:52,539 --> 00:10:54,080 他不会给这么大的阳线哈 208 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,899 他就会他就有可能微微反弹一下 209 00:10:56,899 --> 00:10:57,620 继续跌一下 210 00:10:57,620 --> 00:10:59,120 再给阳线 211 00:11:00,899 --> 00:11:01,980 这是这几个 212 00:11:01,980 --> 00:11:03,259 我们看一下黄金 213 00:11:03,259 --> 00:11:05,460 今天黄金呢是日线图 214 00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:06,720 是微微的横盘啊 215 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,350 不要看这个百分比啊 216 00:11:09,350 --> 00:11:11,070 昨天呢是强劲的反弹 217 00:11:11,070 --> 00:11:12,669 今天是一个横盘震荡 218 00:11:12,669 --> 00:11:14,129 那么后续会怎么样呢 219 00:11:14,129 --> 00:11:16,370 其实今天没有特别的倾向 220 00:11:16,370 --> 00:11:17,950 这是日线图啊 221 00:11:17,950 --> 00:11:20,919 我们看一下5分钟图嗯 222 00:11:20,919 --> 00:11:22,360 那如果你要做多的话 223 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,639 你近期的止损位呢可以放在这里哈 224 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:28,759 或者是放在最下方 225 00:11:28,759 --> 00:11:30,720 但一般日内交易者都比较近啊 226 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,320 止损点 227 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:35,279 好今天包括过去啊 228 00:11:35,279 --> 00:11:37,019 这里都是一个横盘震荡 229 00:11:37,019 --> 00:11:40,289 所以也要提防二次探底的可能性 230 00:11:40,289 --> 00:11:42,970 好好就跟这似的哈 231 00:11:42,970 --> 00:11:44,590 再调回来一趟啊 232 00:11:44,590 --> 00:11:48,159 看看下周早些时候会不会掉下来一下 233 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:50,179 看下原油 234 00:11:50,179 --> 00:11:53,940 原油今天这个欧洲早期试探就是这样的K线啊 235 00:11:53,940 --> 00:11:55,919 今天整体啊就在这飘着 236 00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:57,669 我们看下5分钟 237 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,059 好基本上就这样哈 238 00:12:01,059 --> 00:12:02,620 争来争去的 239 00:12:02,620 --> 00:12:04,559 它是一个局部小震荡哈 240 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:05,759 这里 241 00:12:09,639 --> 00:12:12,740 对吧嗯这就不要做了哈 242 00:12:12,740 --> 00:12:13,720 喜欢原油的朋友 243 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:14,960 你只能做日内交易哈 244 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:19,730 目前日线级别趋势不好做啊 245 00:12:21,460 --> 00:12:23,080 嗯这是这个 246 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,259 我们看一下今天市场整体的表现啊 247 00:12:29,019 --> 00:12:31,220 今天半导体中规中矩吧 248 00:12:31,220 --> 00:12:32,340 微涨一点点 249 00:12:32,340 --> 00:12:33,980 然后就是我们的航空 250 00:12:33,980 --> 00:12:37,429 航天和国防这个板块今年是大幅的上涨 251 00:12:37,429 --> 00:12:40,990 还有一个长得比较明显的是这个计算机硬件 252 00:12:40,990 --> 00:12:44,370 这个嗯其他的都是一般哈 253 00:12:44,370 --> 00:12:45,610 一般偏阳线哈 254 00:12:45,610 --> 00:12:49,208 嗯我们看汽车这个还行啊 255 00:12:49,208 --> 00:12:51,149 也就是说特斯拉也跟涨了 256 00:12:51,149 --> 00:12:53,208 好我们看一下零涨的 257 00:12:53,208 --> 00:12:55,700 那我们今天看谁呀 258 00:12:55,899 --> 00:12:57,419 space x好 259 00:12:57,419 --> 00:12:59,399 我们研究一下它 260 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:00,879 光看这日线的话 261 00:13:00,879 --> 00:13:04,279 那只能说啊它的定价是135 262 00:13:04,279 --> 00:13:07,600 但是呢啊他开盘价是150啊 263 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:08,539 直接跳上来了 264 00:13:08,539 --> 00:13:11,610 然后最高冲到了176块五毛二 265 00:13:11,610 --> 00:13:17,110 那最终收盘是收到了160块九毛五啊 266 00:13:17,110 --> 00:13:19,068 这个对吧 267 00:13:19,068 --> 00:13:21,408 是从135涨了25块钱 268 00:13:21,408 --> 00:13:22,828 涨到160 269 00:13:22,828 --> 00:13:25,129 这个涨幅19%哈 270 00:13:25,129 --> 00:13:27,548 将近20%的一个涨幅 271 00:13:28,250 --> 00:13:29,669 所以这也没法分析呀 272 00:13:29,669 --> 00:13:32,889 来但你第一天一根K线也只能这样 273 00:13:34,129 --> 00:13:37,244 我们看一下5分钟图嗯 274 00:13:37,620 --> 00:13:43,309 我们看到135是定价跳空到150 275 00:13:43,309 --> 00:13:45,690 开盘拉升到176 276 00:13:45,690 --> 00:13:47,029 然后给个回撤 277 00:13:47,029 --> 00:13:49,149 说现在还能做多少能啊 278 00:13:49,149 --> 00:13:50,509 为什么不能 279 00:13:50,509 --> 00:13:53,470 我记得很多图在上市的时候 280 00:13:53,470 --> 00:13:55,789 特别是这个PLTR上市 281 00:13:55,789 --> 00:13:57,009 我们跟进了哈 282 00:13:57,009 --> 00:13:58,330 那这个SPSPACEX 283 00:13:58,330 --> 00:14:01,049 那我们肯定以后也要天天跟进了 284 00:14:01,049 --> 00:14:02,889 对吧好 285 00:14:02,889 --> 00:14:05,409 那这个图呢只能现在也可以做多啊 286 00:14:05,409 --> 00:14:05,929 可以做多 287 00:14:05,929 --> 00:14:08,350 但是不能一下子很重的仓位哈 288 00:14:08,350 --> 00:14:09,710 只能说分批买 289 00:14:09,710 --> 00:14:11,549 因为他今天的波动非常大啊 290 00:14:11,549 --> 00:14:17,039 我们看一下好回撤就回撤了将近十个点左右 291 00:14:17,039 --> 00:14:19,440 化10%的回调是吧 292 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:24,169 所以现在呢可以分批去做好一根K线 293 00:14:24,169 --> 00:14:26,318 看不出来什么问题啊 294 00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:27,759 看5分钟图 295 00:14:27,759 --> 00:14:29,298 5分钟图的交易者 296 00:14:29,298 --> 00:14:32,539 他今天的多头只有这么两次机会啊 297 00:14:32,539 --> 00:14:34,360 或者只有一次做多的机会 298 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:35,539 也就是说拉升回落 299 00:14:35,539 --> 00:14:37,470 直接这可以做一次 300 00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:39,250 这么一做就结束了 301 00:14:39,250 --> 00:14:40,710 这就是日内交易者啊 302 00:14:40,710 --> 00:14:42,649 或者多头的一个位置 303 00:14:42,649 --> 00:14:45,970 后期我们看到这里有回撤的一个迹象啊 304 00:14:45,970 --> 00:14:51,169 我们应该把下跌圈还大概画一一到两根 305 00:14:53,750 --> 00:14:56,450 现在这个尾盘这5分钟图有所反弹 306 00:14:56,450 --> 00:14:57,870 但是多头没有那么强 307 00:14:57,870 --> 00:14:59,330 我看他上影线较长 308 00:14:59,330 --> 00:15:01,029 也就是说他还要再测试一下 309 00:15:01,029 --> 00:15:03,440 这里可能要到下周一再测试了哈 310 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,558 回落测试对吧嗯好 311 00:15:07,558 --> 00:15:08,698 那如果继续掉下去 312 00:15:08,698 --> 00:15:10,409 不要感到意外哦 313 00:15:10,529 --> 00:15:13,429 有他现在市值都2.1万亿了哈 314 00:15:13,429 --> 00:15:14,850 你说它是贵还是不贵呀 315 00:15:14,850 --> 00:15:15,750 理论上是贵 316 00:15:15,750 --> 00:15:17,610 因为它没有没有盈利啊 317 00:15:17,610 --> 00:15:20,240 你看这是显示他是亏损的啊 318 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,730 所以大家都买的是叫什么来着 319 00:15:23,929 --> 00:15:25,029 希望啊 320 00:15:25,029 --> 00:15:26,049 希望和愿景 321 00:15:27,049 --> 00:15:29,159 但现在是吧 322 00:15:29,159 --> 00:15:30,480 现在是纯炒作啊 323 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:32,940 他是一个亏损的状态 324 00:15:32,940 --> 00:15:37,599 后续呢我们还是要关注他业绩改善的一个情况 325 00:15:39,250 --> 00:15:42,730 也就是说基本面比较空哈 326 00:15:42,730 --> 00:15:45,269 宏伟蓝图没有盈利 327 00:15:45,269 --> 00:15:50,409 技术面呢短线范围内至少日线图不可预测哈 328 00:15:50,409 --> 00:15:51,970 所以大家一定要控制风险 329 00:15:51,970 --> 00:15:55,120 它未必说一直涨或者怎么样是吧 330 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,039 日内交易者 331 00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:58,340 今天DOTA只有这么一次做多的机会 332 00:15:58,340 --> 00:16:02,570 空头呢可能在这里做了一个小空好 333 00:16:02,570 --> 00:16:04,090 下周呢我们主要观察哈 334 00:16:04,090 --> 00:16:05,330 它会不会继续回落 335 00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:06,330 去补这个缺口 336 00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:10,590 去测试这个发行价135好 337 00:16:10,590 --> 00:16:11,909 我们再看一下日期哈 338 00:16:11,909 --> 00:16:16,909 我们看到上影线要比实体部分要长嗯 339 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,370 好这是今天的最热的 340 00:16:22,409 --> 00:16:26,090 那么相关的这个国防相关的也有跟涨的哈 341 00:16:26,090 --> 00:16:29,139 我们就暂时不看了嗯 342 00:16:29,139 --> 00:16:32,000 另外今天的锂矿也是跟涨哈 343 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,429 英伟达相关的涨对吧 344 00:16:36,429 --> 00:16:37,289 主要是英特尔 345 00:16:37,289 --> 00:16:38,970 我们看一下 346 00:16:39,830 --> 00:16:41,730 嗯英特尔还不错啊 347 00:16:41,730 --> 00:16:44,159 也就是说这里形成了一个AABC回调 348 00:16:44,159 --> 00:16:46,279 唉市场又选择了恢复上涨 349 00:16:46,279 --> 00:16:48,879 那如果这个阴线后续是反弹 350 00:16:48,879 --> 00:16:50,539 往下确认就麻烦了对吧 351 00:16:50,539 --> 00:16:51,610 它没有 352 00:16:51,610 --> 00:16:53,570 所以DOTA如果在高位减过仓 353 00:16:53,570 --> 00:16:57,490 理论上我们在前几天说这些位置应该再买回来 354 00:16:58,070 --> 00:17:02,490 我相信大部分人他也不一定说他一减仓对吧 355 00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:05,720 但是凡事都有好处有坏处啊 356 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,039 但如果你遇到深跌的 357 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,960 其实还是减仓核算哈 358 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,388 遇到这种横盘的就不合算 359 00:17:13,979 --> 00:17:17,469 但是谁也不能知道每一次回调到底会怎么样 360 00:17:17,709 --> 00:17:20,128 好这个图今天还是上涨哈 361 00:17:20,128 --> 00:17:21,749 那接下来可能要继续涨 362 00:17:21,749 --> 00:17:24,980 我们直接把趋势线调到这里来嗯 363 00:17:25,819 --> 00:17:29,539 好下跌就这样可以删掉了 364 00:17:31,579 --> 00:17:34,200 好那么今天热门的还挺多哈 365 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:40,309 这个闪迪闪迪今天也找了看一眼嗯 366 00:17:40,309 --> 00:17:44,650 珊迪我们看到闪迪曾经在这尝试突破趋势线啊 367 00:17:44,650 --> 00:17:46,670 但是没有能连续的往下砸 368 00:17:46,670 --> 00:17:49,920 相反应为了上去应该恢复做多是吧 369 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,880 我们说空头突破趋势线 370 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,539 突破了多头趋势线啊 371 00:17:53,539 --> 00:17:56,509 反弹往下确认才是彻底离场的机会 372 00:17:56,509 --> 00:17:57,529 他在这里纠 373 00:17:57,529 --> 00:18:01,150 你看这两天这三天他在这里纠结了三天 374 00:18:01,150 --> 00:18:02,809 他也没有时间往下确认啊 375 00:18:02,809 --> 00:18:04,680 相反被掰了上去 376 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,740 这样的话呢我们看到今天K线又跟进去了 377 00:18:07,740 --> 00:18:09,119 多头跟进去了 378 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,400 因为DOTA也在观望 379 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,890 你到底要不要砸呀是吧 380 00:18:12,890 --> 00:18:15,730 这比那刚才英特尔还要更更恶心哈 381 00:18:15,730 --> 00:18:17,349 就这个回车就这么样 382 00:18:17,349 --> 00:18:19,549 就回撤就就撤完了 383 00:18:19,549 --> 00:18:21,809 所以说对吧 384 00:18:21,809 --> 00:18:24,009 恶心的回撤就是这样的 385 00:18:24,009 --> 00:18:25,730 这样的话只能这么画 386 00:18:25,730 --> 00:18:28,130 我们的趋势肯定是变宽了哈 387 00:18:28,130 --> 00:18:31,069 趋势斜率变变平缓了 388 00:18:31,069 --> 00:18:32,650 趋势没有改变 389 00:18:32,650 --> 00:18:34,210 你说现在还能做多吗 390 00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:34,569 能啊 391 00:18:34,569 --> 00:18:35,309 为什么不能 392 00:18:35,309 --> 00:18:37,710 你看今天就是说多头发下来啊 393 00:18:37,710 --> 00:18:38,750 空头下不去 394 00:18:38,750 --> 00:18:41,400 那我今天就直接做多就可以了 395 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,519 不能踩顶好 396 00:18:44,519 --> 00:18:46,960 我们回到我们的热门股票 397 00:18:48,700 --> 00:18:50,539 好那我们看谁呢 398 00:18:50,539 --> 00:18:52,539 我们先看下英伟达吧 399 00:18:53,930 --> 00:18:55,789 哎英伟达今天也还不错哈 400 00:18:55,789 --> 00:18:56,809 微涨一点点 401 00:18:56,809 --> 00:18:58,910 有时候他在这不抢你 402 00:18:58,910 --> 00:19:01,049 因为他市值大哈 403 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,140 理论上好像差不多了啊 404 00:19:04,140 --> 00:19:09,599 这波下跌这波回调看下5分钟嗯 405 00:19:10,519 --> 00:19:12,759 多头呢突破了这个趋势线啊 406 00:19:16,049 --> 00:19:17,089 看起来像哈 407 00:19:17,089 --> 00:19:19,130 因为空头不愿意使劲砸呀 408 00:19:19,130 --> 00:19:22,609 这样的话看涨的概率略高一点 409 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,380 我们说这个区域他在这横过来的 410 00:19:26,380 --> 00:19:28,779 稍微震一震也是可以的 411 00:19:29,220 --> 00:19:33,160 好这是这个这个博通 412 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,180 博通跟英伟达有类似之处的话 413 00:19:35,180 --> 00:19:36,039 也差不多 414 00:19:36,039 --> 00:19:38,829 看一下5分钟图嗯 415 00:19:38,829 --> 00:19:39,670 一样的哈 416 00:19:39,670 --> 00:19:40,849 一样的形态 417 00:19:40,849 --> 00:19:44,980 看周一能不能弄起来好 418 00:19:44,980 --> 00:19:46,660 我们再看一下日期 419 00:19:47,740 --> 00:19:48,500 差不多吧 420 00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:50,539 跟那个英伟达啊差不多的形态 421 00:19:50,539 --> 00:19:53,640 就这一片儿啊 422 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:54,680 今天还有个谁来着 423 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,400 特斯拉看一下特斯拉在哪儿呢 424 00:19:59,759 --> 00:20:03,000 这好特斯拉还行啊 425 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,720 没有没有 426 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,160 那什么好 427 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,519 这里又说了一个什么呢 428 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,839 SPACEX总裁说 429 00:20:12,839 --> 00:20:15,319 不排除未来与特斯拉合并 430 00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:18,359 两家公司目标正趋于一致 431 00:20:19,430 --> 00:20:24,690 嗯那就是说在火星上这个开新能源车了 432 00:20:24,690 --> 00:20:25,880 也有可能 433 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,720 然后在AI领域其实是重叠的哈 434 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,940 或者是同样的一个这个这个技术对吧 435 00:20:32,940 --> 00:20:35,089 AIAI领域是一样的 436 00:20:35,089 --> 00:20:37,390 只不过AI的应用不一样啊 437 00:20:37,390 --> 00:20:40,799 好嘞这个以后再说吧 438 00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:42,279 合不合并再说 439 00:20:42,279 --> 00:20:44,720 他现在市值是1.53万亿 440 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,400 刚才那个SPACEX是2.1万亿哈 441 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:49,819 不用合并啊 442 00:20:49,819 --> 00:20:51,119 合不合并都无所谓 443 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,500 你可以再成立一个像BRK那样的公司 444 00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:59,289 比如说叫啊M2K对吧 445 00:20:59,289 --> 00:21:02,650 Mark Mark以后能成一个Mark哈 446 00:21:02,650 --> 00:21:03,670 开玩笑啊 447 00:21:03,670 --> 00:21:06,710 他随便去企业可以成为成立一个大的总公司 448 00:21:06,710 --> 00:21:09,500 再上市无所谓哈 449 00:21:09,500 --> 00:21:10,589 随便吧 450 00:21:10,589 --> 00:21:14,369 反正特斯拉现在这个业务面不是说太理想啊 451 00:21:14,369 --> 00:21:16,910 你看他这个市盈率太高了 452 00:21:16,910 --> 00:21:17,549 好几百倍 453 00:21:17,549 --> 00:21:18,470 300多倍 454 00:21:18,470 --> 00:21:20,019 370倍 455 00:21:20,019 --> 00:21:21,299 那个又是亏损 456 00:21:21,299 --> 00:21:21,900 这个又是 457 00:21:21,900 --> 00:21:24,930 所以说马斯克还是挺能忽悠的哈 458 00:21:24,930 --> 00:21:27,049 按照这个价值投资理论来说 459 00:21:27,049 --> 00:21:29,049 这没什么价值对吧 460 00:21:29,049 --> 00:21:30,388 高估了 461 00:21:30,388 --> 00:21:32,128 但是按照画饼的来说 462 00:21:32,128 --> 00:21:35,009 宏伟蓝图来说好像是可以玩一玩 463 00:21:35,009 --> 00:21:37,369 所以这玩的都是泡沫哈 464 00:21:37,769 --> 00:21:38,589 开玩笑哈 465 00:21:38,589 --> 00:21:41,029 大家自己判断好 466 00:21:41,029 --> 00:21:43,430 我们看一下这个patent penetier 467 00:21:43,430 --> 00:21:45,170 在最早上市的时候也是这样哈 468 00:21:45,170 --> 00:21:46,230 先拉升一波 469 00:21:46,230 --> 00:21:47,799 然后调回来对吧 470 00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:51,009 这个我们在最开始上市的时候也有待跟进 471 00:21:51,009 --> 00:21:53,049 但这个图今天是一个阴线啊 472 00:21:53,049 --> 00:21:55,730 所以多头要提高警惕行吧 473 00:21:55,730 --> 00:21:57,210 掉下来就跑 474 00:21:57,210 --> 00:22:00,319 只有大阳线才符合我们的想法哈 475 00:22:01,299 --> 00:22:02,880 那今天是周末哈 476 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,460 周末我们会有两个内容的录制哈 477 00:22:05,460 --> 00:22:07,319 欢迎大家成为绿宝石会员 478 00:22:07,319 --> 00:22:09,779 我们会员见哈拜拜
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