【NaNa说美股】20260331二季度剧本也有了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是3月31号

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周二美股呢上演了一场久违的暴力拉升

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普道指双双涨超2%

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纳指更是疯涨3%

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创下去年5月以来最大单日涨幅

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同时也是今年整个3月份下跌以来规模最大的反弹

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老股民都知道一句话哈

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美股最猛的单日涨幅通常都出现在熊市里

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这波反弹的大工程是伊朗总统

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他在午盘时间放话

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愿意结束战争

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但希望能够获得安全保障

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市场瞬间高潮啊

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既然双方都想贪

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那4月6号大概率打不起来咯

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于是呢避险资金撤退

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空头集体踩踏回补

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川普最近费老劲

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连发大口都没人信

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只能打电话叫伊朗总统出来说事

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咱才相信这个真是峰回路转哈

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早上还说要轰炸阿联酋的石油管道

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与中东地区的美国公司关联企业呢

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下午就要坐下来谈判

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这个剧情反转的连编剧都汗颜啊

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也好

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双方都在找台阶下

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美国不想打地面持久战

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伊朗呢也怕彻底打废了

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那局势就有逐渐降温的希望

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至于82空降师海军陆战队

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那就当去中东嗯

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团建一圈嘛

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赶紧拿了浓缩油再找中东王爷们要点红包回家去吧

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这个海峡再封锁下去

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全世界股民的账户也快吃不消了

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今天指数开盘价就是日内最低的走势哈

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反映了季末调仓资金和空头踩踏回补的迫切性

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说明从今天开盘的那一刻起

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买盘就直接接管了阵地

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所以呢即使没有中午的伊朗塔库市场

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今天大概率也会反弹的

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昨天CNN恐慌指标跌到了九

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这个位数

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弹簧压到了极限

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必有反抽

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今天又是月末和季度末最后一天

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机构得把季线和月线都拉出条尾巴

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也就是下影线

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免得K线走的太难看了

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昨天视频里我们就已经预测了

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今天大概率会反弹了

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哈伊朗的碳库呢

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只不过进一步扩大了这个反弹的力度

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指数今天收盘站上了5日与10日均线

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自2月28号伊朗战争开打以来

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在这一轮下行趋势中

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所有的超跌反弹都被这条10日均线给压下去

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如果这次能够站稳10日均线

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连续三天不跌破

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那就意味着美股从重症监护室转去普通病房了

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那要是站不稳

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又一个倒栽葱掉下来了

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那反弹仍有可能失败

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目前本周的看跌期权强位于6300伽马尔

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翻转点在6530

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今天收盘位只差一点

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也就是说指数已经来到了反弹能不能够升级的门槛边上

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另外今天这根采样线还完美跨过了GP季度color保护性put期权大单

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6475的行权价

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这是一个非常典型的call拉效应

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回归简单讲嗯

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摩根大通每季度末的cola头寸到期

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往往都会成为市场波动剧烈切换的转折点

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之前为了对冲这个6475附近的巨量铺着风险期权

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做市商手里呢积累了大量的空头头寸

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而随着今天盘中指数快速拉回到6475上方

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这些boot的保护价值就迅速下降哈

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做日三必须在收盘前回补之前的空头头寸

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这种被迫买入的行为呢

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正是今天指数能够一路顶住压力

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持续保持在6500以上的主要动力

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所以今天这个上涨哈不仅仅只是消息刺激

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更是情绪

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技术面和期权结构三者共振的结果

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而随着这个季度末

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考拉头寸到期消失

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市场的机械性波动呢也会有所缓和嗯VX今年也因此明显回落了

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从30附近一下子跌到了25附近

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接下来如果VX能进一步跌破20的话

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那市场才算是真正意义上进入了风险解除防御松绑的阶段

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不过这大概率还需要更多条件来配合

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比如中东局势进一步确认缓和

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或者霍尔木兹海峡恢复更稳定的通行

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GPM呢也已经为标普500重新买好了第二季度的保险呃

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卖出了行权价在6840的看涨期权

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买入了行权价在6150的看跌期权嗯

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同时卖出5190的深度价内看跌期权

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这分别意味着6150呢是二季度的核心返现

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只要指数没有跌到

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这抄底都得带着盾牌

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一旦指数靠近

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这里就会有极强的机构买盘和空头平仓出现

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而卖出call是为了换取保费来抵消买入put的成本

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这也意味着6840是市场短期上行空间的一道天花板哈

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除非标普能够暴力冲破6840

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否则的话

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二季度呢只是一个宽幅震荡的鸟笼行情

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不存在单边大牛市

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至于卖出5190的铺层

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那是为了白嫖保费呃

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机构极其确信指数不可能跌到5190这种崩盘点位的哈

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所以卖出它来资助整个对冲组合

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所以从期权结构上来看

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6150依旧是非常非常关键的位置

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这个点位也是我昨天和之前多次反反复复强调过的哈

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本轮调整的目标在今天午盘之前呢

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我是非常坚定的认为市场后面还会有一次下探6150动作哈

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要么直接就砸下去

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要么反抽之后再回踩确认

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就无论如何都会到这里

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但是今天嗯伊朗这边突然释放降温信号之后

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市场的运行路径就开始变得没那么简单了

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现在我对市场是否已经见底这件事情坦白说没有那么的确定哈

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主观上我当然还是认为没有触底

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因为伊朗要的安全保障意味着美国要解除全面制裁呃

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承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权

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但这触动了美国的全球霸权底线哈

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双方肯定还会来回极限拉扯

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另外呢

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油价基金虽然跳水

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但还保持在100美元以上

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如果海峡海封锁着美国就停战走人的话

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让伊朗保留了通道的控制权

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那优势很难完全回到此前的均衡状态

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伊朗的封锁手段已经演变成一种强有力的经济战工具了

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即便霍尔木兹海峡重开

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要恢复石油供应啊

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也需要数周甚至数月时间

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市场今天虽然先涨了哈

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但是很多中长期的风险呢并没有真正的消失

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还有股神巴菲特今天早上嗯接受CNBC采访的时候

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才刚刚明确的表示

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对当前市场保持谨慎

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他说自己不会仅仅为了博取指数

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5%到6%的反弹收益而入场

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现在的美股呢仍谈不上便宜

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不打算抄底

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如果后续出现更大幅度的下跌

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才会考虑出手

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他还坦言

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苹果卖早了

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但是当前的估值呢没有吸引力

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不会买回

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股神都这么淡定哈

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人家年纪这么大

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都老实在在

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咱们也别太把自己当孤勇者了

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因此在当前阶段

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我还是倾向于把年线下方的这一波上涨先定义为反弹

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而不是直接认定为反转哈

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指数必须要站上这条年线

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反弹升级为趋势反转的概率呢才会真正的明显上升

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呃目前还没到这里

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明天开盘嗯

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可能会顺着今天的这个鱼尾惯性冲一下

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6550

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如果回落了

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只要不跌破今天阳线实体的一半

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就大于5日均线6460附近

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那多头情绪还能够维持

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但如果是跌破了5日均线的

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那市场就会认为今天的这个反弹啊

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就仅仅是寂寞作秀而已

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可能还会再一次回撤6400点的

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我今天就先按计划把短期嗯博反弹的一些coo给先出了

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回笼更多的现金嗯

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继续保留着远期的QQQ看涨期权啊和几只核心正股

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目前保留的是2027年12月到期

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行权价500美元的QQ深度价内扣

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本质上就是为了替代直接持有QQ的仓位哈

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好处是占用的资金更少

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杠杆的效率更高

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而且呢时间也拉得足够长

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短期波动对它的时间价值影响相对有限

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我买的也比较晚呃

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也是最近几天才买了这个长期的这个code个股与板块方面

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迈威尔科技股价大涨

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英伟达投资了20亿美元

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双方将合作研发硅光子技术

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微观子被很多人认为下一个阶段AI基础设施升级的重要方向

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所以呢只要市场风险偏好修复这一类下一代算力链条标的

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通常都会率先反弹

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近期也有多位华尔街分析师提到哈

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一旦油价和长端美债收益率同步回落

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那芯片股大概率会重新成为带领美股市场修复的核心力量之一

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coo vivv股价呢也大幅反弹

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公司宣布完成了具有里程碑意义的85亿美元融资安排

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也是首笔获得投资及品级的GPU

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这次融资对于口语来说

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市场最关心的始终是钱够不够

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00:10:15,879 --> 00:10:18,089
还有融资链条稳不稳

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00:10:18,089 --> 00:10:21,908
所以这类消息对股价修复帮助还是比较直接的哈

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00:10:21,908 --> 00:10:25,529
但呃最大的原因还是这个市场反弹啦

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00:10:25,529 --> 00:10:27,889
NBIS呢大厂超12%

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00:10:27,889 --> 00:10:31,110
公司宣布正在推进欧洲业务的快速扩张

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将会在芬兰建设一座新的AI数据中心

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00:10:34,799 --> 00:10:37,539
项目估值预计超过100亿美元

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投入运营后呢

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将会成为欧洲最大的数据中心之一

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00:10:41,100 --> 00:10:46,080
预计将会在2027年开始向客户提供初步服务嗯

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市场显然还是愿意给这种真的资本支出

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以及真实落地的AI基础设施故事更高的溢价

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00:10:54,089 --> 00:10:56,509
梅塔今天也跳空大涨

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大摩把梅塔列为首选股

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认为市场对它的悲观情绪已经见底了

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目前大约15倍市盈率的估值处在过去10年相对低位

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也提供了一个比较少见的战术性买点嗯

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市场现在压住的不只是降本增效和广告业务的恢复

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更重要的是beta AI未来是否能够真正打开新的商业化空间

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把平台的流量从广告展示进一步的推向交易变现

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CEG股价呢逆势大跌哈

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公司在最新投资者报告中没有宣布任何新的数据中心供电协议

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而且还预测2026年利润低于市场率

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C虽然公司CEO表示

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未来预计还会签署新的重大协议

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为科技公司供电

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但是因为当前数据中心供电和电力监管问题越来越敏感

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他不愿意太早释放信息

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公司预计2026年调整后每股收益为11~12美元

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虽然不算差

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但是也没有达到市场最兴奋时候的预期水平

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不过也不是完全没有好消息

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公司呢同时表示

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到2029年他的年度基础收益有望增长超过20%

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并且还宣布把股票回购计划从30亿美元提升到了50亿美元

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这说明公司自己对中长期基本面仍然很有信心

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00:12:20,210 --> 00:12:21,370
但问题在于

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现在市场对这一类AI供电概念股的要求已经变得很高了

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00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:28,279
过去只要讲逻辑就能够涨

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00:12:28,279 --> 00:12:33,000
现在呢必须要拿出真正落地的协议和兑现的速度

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00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:34,740
再加上利率上行

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政策干预

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电力市场以及中东局势带来的宏观压力

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00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:45,559
这类公用事业AI概念股最近呢就明显开始遭遇了估值重置呃

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cg进入3月份以来已经累计下跌超过15%

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00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,929
其实就是市场在重新给它定价

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00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:53,809
耐克盘后出了财报

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00:12:53,809 --> 00:12:55,009
股价暴跌

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00:12:55,009 --> 00:12:57,690
Q3净利润为5.2亿美元

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同比下滑了35%

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00:12:59,809 --> 00:13:02,009
Q4止影业疲软

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00:13:02,009 --> 00:13:04,929
不过最近股价已经跌了很多了哈

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00:13:04,929 --> 00:13:08,429
明天反而可能会嗯出现利空落地

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00:13:08,429 --> 00:13:11,230
九空头借着这个财报回补平仓

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00:13:11,230 --> 00:13:13,960
推动股价呢低开高走嗯

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行今天我们就说到这里

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那我们明天见拜拜

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