1
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段永平接受了退休20多年来
2
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为数不多的视频采访
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这次对话持续了93分钟
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信息量巨大
5
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很多内容都是首次公开
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而访谈中最让人震撼的不是他怎么赚到钱
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而是他在茅台暴跌50%的时候
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说的那句话
9
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2001年
10
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网易股价不到一美元
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被纳斯达克威胁退市
12
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所有人都在抛售
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但一个刚从中国搬到美国的商人
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做了一个疯狂的决定
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把账上所有的钱全部买入网易
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六个月之后
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网易翻了20倍
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投资圈炸了
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无数人涌进段永平的博客
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问下一个网易在哪里
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但段永平的回答让所有人都愣住了
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你又回答不了这个问题
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其实讨论投资都是都是瞎扯
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我要看懂了
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我应该把整个网易买下来啊
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故事要从更早开始说起
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95年的时候
28
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段永平做了第一个让所有人不理解的决定
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离开小霸王
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当时的小霸王如日中天
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年销售额十个亿
32
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是中国学习机市场的绝对霸主
33
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段永平作为实际操盘者
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收入已经很高了
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用他自己的话说
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那个时候就已经财富自由了
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但他还是离开了
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原因很简单
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大老板答应的股份制从三七开变成二八开
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又变成一九开
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最后可能连一九开都没有了
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刮那个瓶盖
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刮出屑了
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你还继续刮完他们
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00:01:12,819 --> 00:01:14,459
我就是刮到那个字了啊
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00:01:14,459 --> 00:01:17,769
就觉得哇这个我肯定不能再待下去了
47
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那注意他离开不是因为没拿到钱
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而是因为不可信
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不是说有没有股份激励
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因为一开始是有的嘛
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嗯对吧
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那你没有契约
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你就不可信了
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不可信
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那就你给我讲什么都是不可信的
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这个细节很重要
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因为它揭示了段永平做决策的底层逻辑
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他在意的不是眼前的利益
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而是这件事情
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对或者不对
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离开小霸王之后呢
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段永平在东莞创立了步步高
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这一次他从一开始就把股份机制
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文化全部设计好
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我们是一直都就大家合作的都挺好的
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说什么就是什么
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所以大家很放心
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彼此有很高的信任
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接下来的故事呢很多人可能都知道了
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步步高VCD
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步步高电话机
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步步高学习机
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一个接着一个做到了全国第一
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2001年的时候
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段永平做出了第二个没人相信的决定
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搬到美国
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不再担任CEO
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为什么要离开
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所有人都在问
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00:02:07,799 --> 00:02:09,520
段永平的回答还是那么朴素
81
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他们干的又比我好
82
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我为什么要待在那个地方
83
00:02:13,949 --> 00:02:15,789
在解释为什么放手之前
84
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段平讲了一个故事
85
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大学三年级
86
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他无意中看到管理学大师德鲁克的一句话
87
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做对的事情把事情做对
88
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那那个对我触动很大
89
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一下就就把这个是非的东西给拿出来了
90
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然后呢
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00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,479
你发现凡是你只要花五秒钟想一下这个事情
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你一辈子会省好多事儿
93
00:02:34,460 --> 00:02:35,469
什么意思呢
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大多数人都在讨论怎么把事情做对
95
00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:40,629
但很少有人停下来去自问一下
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这件事情本身对不对
97
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举个例子
98
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步步高有个不成文的规定
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就是不做代工
100
00:02:46,008 --> 00:02:46,968
那么为什么呢
101
00:02:46,968 --> 00:02:48,128
我说你看我要做代工
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打不过你对不对
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嗯他说那倒是啊
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但是我们做brand
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我们做的很好啊对啊
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我们企业也不比他们做的小啊对吧
107
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但是呢我们不是靠代工跟他竞争的
108
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那这个就是段平著名的stop doing list
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不做什么比做什么更重要
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30多年下来
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步步高的不做清单越来越长
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不做代工
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不做电视
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不为市场占有率牺牲利润
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不做用户价值不明显的产品
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每一条都是用真金白银试出来的
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你做了错的事情带来的恶果
118
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那是不应该的
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因为你明知道是错的事情
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你为什么还要去做呢
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这套逻辑用在放权上面
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就变成了
123
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只要CEO们在做对的事情
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那么怎么做
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就让他们自己做决定
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我们公司的规矩就是这样
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就说呢不管我反不反对CEO做的决定
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就是他们做的决定
129
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然后呢结果也是他们来自己承受的
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他不能说阿段反对
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所以我没做
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那这句话听起来很冒险
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万一CEO做错了怎么办
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那段永平的回答是
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我也不怕他们犯错
136
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2011年智能手机的浪潮突然来袭
137
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那这次呢CEO们犯了一个巨大的错误
138
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低估了智能机替代功能机的一个速度
139
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那个这样的速度太快了
140
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因为其实我们也早就在开发智能机
141
00:03:59,579 --> 00:04:01,098
也知道这个趋势
142
00:04:01,098 --> 00:04:03,218
但是呢工程机还是下了很多单
143
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总觉得这是有一个过程的
144
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没想到他就一瞬间就过去了
145
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后果很严重
146
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账上的现金从七八十亿
147
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咚咚咚咚咚的往下掉
148
00:04:11,789 --> 00:04:13,849
最危险的时候快见底了
149
00:04:13,849 --> 00:04:16,310
12年到13年中间的那一年
150
00:04:16,310 --> 00:04:17,970
公司实际上面是亏损的
151
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那段永平专门回了一趟公司
152
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不是去救火
153
00:04:20,569 --> 00:04:22,680
而是去做最坏的一个打算
154
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如果我们要倒的话
155
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不要倒的太难看了
156
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不能让供应商吃亏
157
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也不要让员工吃亏
158
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这句话听起来有点悲壮
159
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但是段永平他心里面是有底气的
160
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因为他在美国投资积累的资产一直是没有动的
161
00:04:36,689 --> 00:04:38,970
那智能机一代二代出来之后呢
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公司就缓过来了
163
00:04:40,209 --> 00:04:42,209
VIVO和OPPO后来就各自独立
164
00:04:42,209 --> 00:04:45,379
成为了全球排名前列的一个手机品牌
165
00:04:45,379 --> 00:04:47,680
但这次危机暴露了一个核心的问题
166
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段永平在这个判断上面
167
00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:50,620
那其实是失误的
168
00:04:50,620 --> 00:04:52,300
我觉得我们也是有失误的
169
00:04:52,300 --> 00:04:54,389
就是不够敏敏感
170
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按理说呢
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创始人这个时候应该回来去掌舵
172
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但是段小平是没有的
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为什么呢
174
00:04:59,300 --> 00:05:00,439
因为方向是对的
175
00:05:00,439 --> 00:05:02,048
只是速度判断错了
176
00:05:02,048 --> 00:05:03,668
那只要是你在做对的事情
177
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那么做错是可以接受的
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00:05:06,028 --> 00:05:07,408
做错的事情可以改
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00:05:07,408 --> 00:05:09,288
但做错了方向就没救了
180
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画好最主要的就是他叫做最终他会走回正道
181
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有一个北斗星在指引着他
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你仅仅是讨论生意是很容易犯错误的
183
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01年段永平搬到美国之后呢
184
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就开始研究投资
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00:05:24,899 --> 00:05:26,680
一开始他也看图看线
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我这一功课出来的人
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怎么这图我就看不懂呢
188
00:05:30,089 --> 00:05:32,009
啊他们就能得出这样的结论
189
00:05:32,009 --> 00:05:32,490
那样的结论
190
00:05:32,490 --> 00:05:34,569
我说这些结论在逻辑上都是不成立的
191
00:05:34,569 --> 00:05:36,129
那直到看到了巴菲特的一句话
192
00:05:36,129 --> 00:05:37,430
买股票就是买公司
193
00:05:37,430 --> 00:05:38,970
我就看到那一句话了
194
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我就突然就明白了
195
00:05:40,329 --> 00:05:43,029
因为剩下的就是你怎么看公司
196
00:05:43,029 --> 00:05:44,709
那不是老八能够教的
197
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你不懂企业
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00:05:45,709 --> 00:05:47,569
你跟你讲多少理论也是白讲
199
00:05:47,569 --> 00:05:50,139
这个就是段永平为什么能够看到用网易的原因
200
00:05:50,139 --> 00:05:51,939
因为他自己是做过游戏的
201
00:05:51,939 --> 00:05:52,740
我是谁啊
202
00:05:52,740 --> 00:05:54,319
我做游戏出身的呀
203
00:05:54,319 --> 00:05:55,300
我可懂游戏
204
00:05:55,300 --> 00:05:56,199
有游戏了嗯
205
00:05:56,199 --> 00:05:58,279
在98年段永平还在小霸王的时候呢
206
00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,680
就做过小霸王的学习机
207
00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,300
其实那个呢就是一个游戏机
208
00:06:01,300 --> 00:06:03,120
他太清楚游戏这门生意了
209
00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:03,959
只要游戏好玩
210
00:06:03,959 --> 00:06:04,980
就一定有人玩
211
00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:05,879
只要有人玩
212
00:06:05,879 --> 00:06:07,160
就一定能够赚钱
213
00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,000
那所以当网易因为财务问题被做空
214
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,720
股价跌到不到一美元的时候呢
215
00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,759
段永平去网易办公室转了一圈
216
00:06:13,759 --> 00:06:15,240
和游戏团队聊了聊
217
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:16,300
得出的结论是
218
00:06:16,300 --> 00:06:18,459
他们是一帮很热爱游戏的人
219
00:06:18,459 --> 00:06:21,339
而且他们也是很认真的在去做这份工作
220
00:06:21,339 --> 00:06:23,300
加上网易账上的现金比市值还高
221
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于是呢
222
00:06:23,699 --> 00:06:26,180
段小平就把账上所有的钱全部买入了网易
223
00:06:26,180 --> 00:06:26,980
六个月之后
224
00:06:26,980 --> 00:06:28,519
网易股价翻了20倍
225
00:06:28,519 --> 00:06:31,360
很多人以为段平找到了一个发财的秘诀
226
00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:32,779
但他自己的反思是
227
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我要是看懂了
228
00:06:33,660 --> 00:06:35,399
我应该把整个网易买下来呀
229
00:06:35,399 --> 00:06:37,589
这句话透露出了一个关键的信息
230
00:06:37,589 --> 00:06:41,990
段永平对看懂的要求比一般人要高得多
231
00:06:43,038 --> 00:06:45,338
巴菲特说一辈子只有一张打孔卡
232
00:06:45,338 --> 00:06:47,119
那上面只能打20个孔
233
00:06:47,119 --> 00:06:49,079
那段平数了一下自己打过的孔
234
00:06:49,079 --> 00:06:50,598
网易雅虎
235
00:06:50,598 --> 00:06:52,238
苹果茅台
236
00:06:52,238 --> 00:06:54,399
腾讯拼多多机翼
237
00:06:55,420 --> 00:06:58,500
英伟达西方石油小十个孔是吧
238
00:06:58,500 --> 00:07:00,939
所以我还有很久可以做投资
239
00:07:00,939 --> 00:07:02,259
那为什么这么少呢
240
00:07:02,259 --> 00:07:04,178
因为段屏有两个过滤器
241
00:07:04,178 --> 00:07:06,038
商业模式加企业文化
242
00:07:06,038 --> 00:07:07,059
两个都能通过
243
00:07:07,059 --> 00:07:08,279
那才能够出手
244
00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:09,879
商业模式很好理解
245
00:07:09,879 --> 00:07:11,720
这生意能不能持续的赚钱
246
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:12,860
他有没有护城河
247
00:07:12,860 --> 00:07:14,319
但企业文化这个过滤器
248
00:07:14,319 --> 00:07:16,879
可能是段永平和其他投资人最大的一个不同
249
00:07:16,879 --> 00:07:18,040
投苹果的时候呢
250
00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,819
很多人看到的都是IPHONE的销量生态的闭环
251
00:07:20,819 --> 00:07:22,879
但是段屏看到的是他们前文化很好
252
00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:24,069
用户导向做的很
253
00:07:24,069 --> 00:07:26,829
他们不是那种很深意导向的公司
254
00:07:26,829 --> 00:07:28,990
他们非常的在乎把东西做好
255
00:07:28,990 --> 00:07:29,829
他举了一个例子
256
00:07:29,829 --> 00:07:32,600
十几年前呢到处都在传苹果要出电动车了
257
00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:33,560
但是段永平说
258
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:35,480
他们绝对不会做这个电动车的
259
00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:36,120
为什么呢
260
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:37,629
那么大个车
261
00:07:37,829 --> 00:07:40,810
苹果能够提供的价值非常的有限
262
00:07:40,810 --> 00:07:41,750
它卖什么价
263
00:07:41,750 --> 00:07:43,430
它就没有足够的差异化
264
00:07:43,430 --> 00:07:47,149
没有办法给用户增加足够的价值的时候
265
00:07:47,149 --> 00:07:48,329
他们就不碰了
266
00:07:48,329 --> 00:07:49,730
他们不会为了生意去做
267
00:07:49,730 --> 00:07:50,930
那么直到2024年
268
00:07:50,930 --> 00:07:53,310
苹果正式宣布放弃造车这个计划
269
00:07:53,310 --> 00:07:54,949
那这个呢就是文化的力量
270
00:07:54,949 --> 00:07:55,990
它决定了一家公司
271
00:07:55,990 --> 00:07:58,689
在关键的时刻会做什么样的一个选择
272
00:07:58,689 --> 00:08:01,250
段永平投资茅台呢也是同样的一个道理
273
00:08:01,250 --> 00:08:06,050
他们对那些呃最基本的品质的标准呢
274
00:08:06,050 --> 00:08:08,029
他们坚持的是很严的嗯
275
00:08:08,029 --> 00:08:09,389
国营企业有国营企业的好处
276
00:08:09,389 --> 00:08:11,970
这些规矩不太有人敢改
277
00:08:11,970 --> 00:08:14,670
太多的人盯着这两个过滤器加在一起
278
00:08:14,670 --> 00:08:17,000
那能够投的公司呢就少之又少了
279
00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,800
大部分公司呢都不容易看懂
280
00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:19,360
段永平说
281
00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:20,800
那我也搞不懂NVDA
282
00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:22,029
也搞不懂google
283
00:08:22,029 --> 00:08:24,470
那其实是google这样他很喜欢的公司
284
00:08:24,470 --> 00:08:26,389
他也承认我现在是有点懂了
285
00:08:26,389 --> 00:08:27,790
但是呢又开始担心了
286
00:08:27,790 --> 00:08:30,060
他们的搜索生意会有多大程度上面
287
00:08:30,060 --> 00:08:31,879
会被汽车GBD所代替
288
00:08:31,879 --> 00:08:33,299
那这个我是不知道的
289
00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:36,490
那所以呢他就不敢重仓google
290
00:08:37,330 --> 00:08:38,470
21年的2月份
291
00:08:38,470 --> 00:08:41,149
茅台站上了2627元的历史高点
292
00:08:41,149 --> 00:08:42,730
段平其实想卖来的
293
00:08:42,730 --> 00:08:43,929
因为觉得那个时候呢
294
00:08:43,929 --> 00:08:46,429
其实是已经相对来说是比较贵了
295
00:08:46,429 --> 00:08:47,710
但为什么没卖呢
296
00:08:47,710 --> 00:08:52,179
我当时最犹豫最犹豫的就是我们的仓位太大了
297
00:08:52,179 --> 00:08:53,759
我卖了以后我买什么
298
00:08:53,759 --> 00:08:55,179
我就开始折磨自己
299
00:08:55,179 --> 00:08:55,899
对不对
300
00:08:55,899 --> 00:08:57,220
然后放眼看去
301
00:08:57,220 --> 00:08:58,659
我什么都买不下什么
302
00:08:58,659 --> 00:09:00,940
这个才是真正价值投资者的一个困境
303
00:09:00,940 --> 00:09:02,740
不是不知道什么时候该卖
304
00:09:02,740 --> 00:09:05,919
而是卖了之后不知道该买什么东西
305
00:09:05,919 --> 00:09:07,159
24年的10月份
306
00:09:07,159 --> 00:09:09,600
茅台掉到了1200点附近腰斩
307
00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:10,480
那访谈现场
308
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:11,240
有人问段永平
309
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,019
你后悔吗
310
00:09:12,019 --> 00:09:13,440
断片的回答只有一句话
311
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:14,460
我卖掉了以后
312
00:09:14,460 --> 00:09:15,299
钱放在哪
313
00:09:15,299 --> 00:09:16,019
这个很重要
314
00:09:16,019 --> 00:09:17,220
你要回答不了这个问题
315
00:09:17,220 --> 00:09:20,269
其实讨论投资都是都是瞎扯
316
00:09:20,269 --> 00:09:21,889
他的逻辑链条是这样子的
317
00:09:21,889 --> 00:09:23,308
茅台跌了50%
318
00:09:23,308 --> 00:09:24,769
但基本面是没变的
319
00:09:26,649 --> 00:09:28,009
如果我卖掉茅台
320
00:09:28,009 --> 00:09:30,590
这笔钱必须要找一个地方去存
321
00:09:30,590 --> 00:09:32,289
银行利息才一个多点
322
00:09:32,289 --> 00:09:33,370
买别的股票
323
00:09:33,370 --> 00:09:35,889
我敢保证大部分人是亏得更多
324
00:09:35,889 --> 00:09:37,409
拿现金等抄底吗
325
00:09:37,409 --> 00:09:38,690
我是一个满仓主义者
326
00:09:38,690 --> 00:09:40,710
我拿着现金是会很难受的
327
00:09:40,710 --> 00:09:41,769
那所以答案是
328
00:09:41,769 --> 00:09:43,889
如果找不到比茅台更好的标的
329
00:09:43,889 --> 00:09:44,889
那就继续拿着
330
00:09:44,889 --> 00:09:47,610
这个时候方三文问了一个关键的问题
331
00:09:47,610 --> 00:09:52,059
那如果当时有个你认为可以叫无缝切过去的
332
00:09:52,059 --> 00:09:55,100
你将将来自由现金折现比茅台好的
333
00:09:55,100 --> 00:09:56,019
其实也是会换的
334
00:09:56,019 --> 00:09:57,220
那段永平的回答很干脆
335
00:09:57,220 --> 00:09:58,299
那当然会换呢
336
00:09:58,299 --> 00:10:01,159
这个就揭示了段永平投资的一个终极秘诀
337
00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:02,639
不是长期持有不动
338
00:10:02,639 --> 00:10:05,179
而是永远在比较机会成本
339
00:10:05,179 --> 00:10:06,460
投资是要卖的
340
00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:09,279
长期持有是一个意向
341
00:10:09,279 --> 00:10:11,610
就是我买的那个刹那
342
00:10:11,610 --> 00:10:13,309
我是打算长期持有的对吧
343
00:10:13,309 --> 00:10:15,629
但是你永远是算算你的机会成本的
344
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:17,309
如果你发现一个更好的公司
345
00:10:17,309 --> 00:10:19,029
你觉得更踏实
346
00:10:19,029 --> 00:10:23,240
比方说你5年前看懂了NVDA
347
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,000
假设你看到了今天这样的局面
348
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,539
你手里只有茅台
349
00:10:27,539 --> 00:10:29,039
如果能够换的话
350
00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:31,159
你没有道理不换
351
00:10:32,139 --> 00:10:33,419
回到开头那个故事
352
00:10:33,419 --> 00:10:34,539
六个月翻了20倍
353
00:10:34,539 --> 00:10:35,840
是运气还是实力
354
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:37,639
那段平自己的回答很有意思
355
00:10:37,639 --> 00:10:39,419
那些钱对我来讲它并不多呀
356
00:10:39,419 --> 00:10:41,600
所以我可以比较理性的去想这件事情
357
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,620
如果我只有那么多钱
358
00:10:43,860 --> 00:10:44,940
我还真保不住
359
00:10:44,940 --> 00:10:45,980
我也可能卖掉
360
00:10:45,980 --> 00:10:47,740
那这句话透露一个关键的信息
361
00:10:47,740 --> 00:10:50,519
保持理性比看对方向更加重要
362
00:10:50,519 --> 00:10:52,769
保持理性它是一件很难的事情
363
00:10:52,769 --> 00:10:53,769
他举了一个例子
364
00:10:53,769 --> 00:10:56,330
比如G108年金融危机的时候
365
00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:58,169
段永平买了G1也赚了钱
366
00:10:58,169 --> 00:11:00,669
但他现在回顾认为那是一个错误
367
00:11:00,669 --> 00:11:02,950
为什么即使赚了钱也是错误呢
368
00:11:02,950 --> 00:11:05,789
因为它不符合我后面的一个决定
369
00:11:05,789 --> 00:11:07,110
他要符合商业模式
370
00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:08,950
企业文化这两个标准
371
00:11:08,950 --> 00:11:11,230
那这个呢就是段永平和大多数投资人
372
00:11:11,230 --> 00:11:12,250
最大的一个不同
373
00:11:12,250 --> 00:11:14,669
他不是用挣没挣钱来判断对错
374
00:11:14,669 --> 00:11:17,700
而是用有没有符合原则来判断对错
375
00:11:17,700 --> 00:11:19,240
挣钱它只是一个结果
376
00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,639
原则才是过程
377
00:11:20,639 --> 00:11:22,460
短期可能因为运气挣了钱
378
00:11:22,460 --> 00:11:24,789
但是长期只有原则能够保护你
379
00:11:24,789 --> 00:11:26,750
所以网易的真正教训不是
380
00:11:26,750 --> 00:11:28,669
如何用六个月赚了20倍
381
00:11:28,669 --> 00:11:31,210
而是只投自己懂的行业
382
00:11:31,210 --> 00:11:32,769
商业模式加企业文化
383
00:11:32,769 --> 00:11:33,750
两个都要过关
384
00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:34,909
有安全边际
385
00:11:34,909 --> 00:11:35,929
保持理性
386
00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:37,350
如果没有更好的选择
387
00:11:37,350 --> 00:11:39,049
就继续拿着
388
00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:41,710
访谈快结束的时候
389
00:11:41,710 --> 00:11:44,590
方三文问你对普通人的投资有什么建议
390
00:11:44,590 --> 00:11:46,210
那段平的回答很直接
391
00:11:46,210 --> 00:11:47,830
炒股是很难赚钱的
392
00:11:47,830 --> 00:11:51,110
而且大部分的散户牛市熊市都是亏钱的
393
00:11:51,110 --> 00:11:52,029
占80%
394
00:11:52,029 --> 00:11:55,789
现在就更难有了量化基金的这种东西
395
00:11:56,029 --> 00:11:57,889
以前还没以前就有
396
00:11:57,889 --> 00:11:58,629
这就说
397
00:11:58,629 --> 00:12:00,918
但是呢以前没有那么厉害
398
00:12:00,918 --> 00:12:02,119
现在它更厉害
399
00:12:02,119 --> 00:12:03,719
反正你一买它就掉
400
00:12:03,719 --> 00:12:05,279
你一卖它就涨
401
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:07,220
人家就是冲着你来的啊
402
00:12:07,220 --> 00:12:08,279
你如果懂的话
403
00:12:08,279 --> 00:12:10,139
投资的前提是你要懂企业
404
00:12:10,139 --> 00:12:11,589
你要搞懂它
405
00:12:11,589 --> 00:12:13,509
或者你看到了make sense的东西
406
00:12:13,509 --> 00:12:14,589
他给了一个建议
407
00:12:14,589 --> 00:12:15,788
如果真的不懂投资
408
00:12:15,788 --> 00:12:17,028
那就买标普500指数
409
00:12:17,028 --> 00:12:18,649
或者说买伯克希尔哈撒韦
410
00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:20,068
你知道他们是谁
411
00:12:20,068 --> 00:12:21,509
你知道他们的历史
412
00:12:21,509 --> 00:12:22,590
对不对
413
00:12:22,590 --> 00:12:25,889
我觉得你买这个可能比什么black stone啊
414
00:12:25,889 --> 00:12:27,750
比这些这些东西要好
415
00:12:27,750 --> 00:12:29,889
但千万不要看图看线的去炒股
416
00:12:29,889 --> 00:12:31,570
那样你就是铁铁的韭菜
417
00:12:33,889 --> 00:12:35,009
在段永平的故事里面
418
00:12:35,009 --> 00:12:37,220
有一个始终贯穿的逻辑
419
00:12:37,220 --> 00:12:38,399
就是少就是多
420
00:12:38,399 --> 00:12:39,500
在企业经营上面
421
00:12:39,500 --> 00:12:41,389
他用stop doing list做减法
422
00:12:41,389 --> 00:12:43,409
30年只专注做对的事情
423
00:12:43,409 --> 00:12:44,769
在组织经营上面
424
00:12:44,769 --> 00:12:46,750
他放手让CEO去做决策
425
00:12:46,750 --> 00:12:47,818
自己退到幕后
426
00:12:47,818 --> 00:12:49,678
反而让企业更有了活力
427
00:12:49,678 --> 00:12:52,399
在投资上面他只打了不到20个孔
428
00:12:52,399 --> 00:12:55,559
但每一个都是经过了商业模式加企业文化
429
00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,139
这种双重的过滤
430
00:12:57,139 --> 00:12:59,179
这背后的智慧其实就是那句话
431
00:12:59,179 --> 00:13:00,039
做对的事情
432
00:13:00,039 --> 00:13:01,039
把事情做对
433
00:13:01,039 --> 00:13:02,419
前半句是方向
434
00:13:02,419 --> 00:13:03,639
后半句是方法
435
00:13:03,639 --> 00:13:04,620
方向错了
436
00:13:04,620 --> 00:13:05,960
越努力越危险
437
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:06,879
方向对了
438
00:13:06,879 --> 00:13:07,759
允许犯错
439
00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:08,879
允许慢慢优化
440
00:13:08,879 --> 00:13:10,120
我们30年下来
441
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,480
我们犯的错误就比其他人少
442
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,529
我觉得其实最主要的就是这个东西
443
00:13:15,529 --> 00:13:17,730
因为我们知道这个事对我们不合适
444
00:13:17,730 --> 00:13:19,379
我们就不做了是吧
445
00:13:19,379 --> 00:13:21,500
那不做我们不就不少犯很多错误吗
446
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:24,240
那你攒下来不就是做对的事情的概率就大了
447
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,090
其实就是小小的一点点的差别
448
00:13:27,090 --> 00:13:29,200
你可能差30年就是很大的差别
449
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,240
巴菲特90多岁的时候还在做CEEO
450
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:32,000
刚刚才退休
451
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:32,779
段平问他
452
00:13:32,779 --> 00:13:35,279
你觉得你未来还可以跑赢标普500吗
453
00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,159
巴菲特说其实非常难
454
00:13:37,159 --> 00:13:40,179
但是呢我觉得我可以超越一点点
455
00:13:40,179 --> 00:13:41,399
那段平笑着说
456
00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:43,299
他就是喜欢做这个事情
457
00:13:43,299 --> 00:13:45,879
这个呢就是真正热爱一件事情的样子
458
00:13:45,879 --> 00:13:47,179
不是为了证明什么
459
00:13:47,179 --> 00:13:48,500
也不是为了挣多少钱
460
00:13:48,500 --> 00:13:49,820
而是单纯的喜欢
461
00:13:49,820 --> 00:13:51,250
然后就一直做下去
462
00:13:51,250 --> 00:13:52,470
段永平也是一样
463
00:13:52,470 --> 00:13:55,089
他每天打球投资享受生活
464
00:13:55,089 --> 00:13:56,328
看起来不务正业
465
00:13:56,328 --> 00:13:58,249
但其实他一直在做同一件事情
466
00:13:58,249 --> 00:13:59,600
做自己喜欢的事情
467
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:00,940
并且把它做到极致
468
00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:02,899
我这个人本来就胸无大志
469
00:14:02,899 --> 00:14:04,799
我就过好每一天就挺好的
470
00:14:04,799 --> 00:14:06,399
那未来的愿望也是过好每一天
471
00:14:06,399 --> 00:14:07,600
做自己喜欢的事情
472
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:08,740
其实没什么了不起的
473
00:14:08,740 --> 00:14:10,700
但正是这个胸无大志的人
474
00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:11,659
用30年的时间
475
00:14:11,659 --> 00:14:13,720
在企业经营和投资两个领域
476
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,559
都做到了顶尖的水平
477
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:16,620
秘诀是什么
478
00:14:16,620 --> 00:14:18,299
可能就是那十个孔的智慧
479
00:14:18,299 --> 00:14:19,860
少做事做对事
480
00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:20,919
把事做好