BV1BXRWBiExE · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:00,920 嗨朋友们 2 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:02,520 欢迎回到ruby投资笔记 3 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:04,269 我是你们的老朋友ruby 4 00:00:04,269 --> 00:00:05,849 不知道大家有没有发现 5 00:00:05,849 --> 00:00:07,330 在买入这件事情上 6 00:00:07,330 --> 00:00:09,789 几乎所有人都表现得像个天才 7 00:00:09,789 --> 00:00:11,070 你看中了一个赛道 8 00:00:11,070 --> 00:00:12,109 调研了一家公司 9 00:00:12,109 --> 00:00:13,490 觉得他未来有潜力 10 00:00:13,490 --> 00:00:16,149 然后一按键盘买入那一刻 11 00:00:16,149 --> 00:00:17,750 你觉得自己看准了未来 12 00:00:17,750 --> 00:00:20,719 但是接下来的事情才是真正的考验 13 00:00:20,719 --> 00:00:22,559 股价如果涨了50% 14 00:00:22,559 --> 00:00:23,660 你要不要卖呢 15 00:00:23,660 --> 00:00:25,859 你是担心回调把利润吐出去 16 00:00:25,859 --> 00:00:27,960 还是更担心它涨到百分之百 17 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:29,629 而你提前下车呢 18 00:00:29,629 --> 00:00:31,589 反过来如果跌了20% 19 00:00:31,589 --> 00:00:32,979 你要不要止损呢 20 00:00:32,979 --> 00:00:34,700 你是觉得它跌出了价值 21 00:00:34,700 --> 00:00:36,240 还是应该及时认错 22 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,689 避免它继续跌到50%呢 23 00:00:38,689 --> 00:00:40,850 这就是投资里最残酷的地方 24 00:00:40,850 --> 00:00:44,509 每一只个股投资都需要你连续做对两次决定 25 00:00:44,509 --> 00:00:46,840 什么时候买以及什么时候卖 26 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:48,200 只要有一步出错 27 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,780 结果就完全不一样 28 00:00:49,780 --> 00:00:51,759 很多人其实买对了公司 29 00:00:51,759 --> 00:00:53,179 但是因为没有卖好 30 00:00:53,179 --> 00:00:55,039 最后利润全部回吐 31 00:00:55,039 --> 00:00:56,920 也有人一开始判断错了 32 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:58,200 但是又不愿意离场 33 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,039 结果亏损不断扩大 34 00:01:00,039 --> 00:01:03,200 这种心理折磨是人类大脑无法承受的 35 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:04,900 我们要面对的是贪婪 36 00:01:04,900 --> 00:01:05,579 是恐惧 37 00:01:05,579 --> 00:01:06,750 是沉没成本 38 00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:07,909 但有意思的是 39 00:01:07,909 --> 00:01:08,790 几十年前 40 00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:09,950 标普500指数 41 00:01:09,950 --> 00:01:12,539 其实就已经帮我们解决了这个问题 42 00:01:12,539 --> 00:01:13,799 但是直到今天 43 00:01:13,799 --> 00:01:15,858 绝大多数投资者依然不明白 44 00:01:15,858 --> 00:01:17,810 这个机制是怎么运作的 45 00:01:17,810 --> 00:01:20,569 所以本期视频我会重点拆解一件事 46 00:01:20,569 --> 00:01:23,530 为什么定投标普500ETF会让你胜过 47 00:01:23,530 --> 00:01:25,079 绝大多数的投资者 48 00:01:25,079 --> 00:01:25,719 话不多说 49 00:01:25,719 --> 00:01:28,040 我们精彩继续 50 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,299 很多人对于标普500的理解其实一开始就偏了 51 00:01:33,299 --> 00:01:34,200 大家会觉得 52 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,079 他不过就是把美国市值最大的500家公司 53 00:01:37,079 --> 00:01:38,099 打包在一起 54 00:01:38,099 --> 00:01:39,299 像一锅大杂烩 55 00:01:39,299 --> 00:01:41,650 但现实完全不是这么回事 56 00:01:41,650 --> 00:01:43,010 标普500的本质 57 00:01:43,010 --> 00:01:45,689 更像是一套持续运转的筛选机制 58 00:01:45,689 --> 00:01:49,280 甚至可以说是一种带有规则约束的算法系统 59 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,920 他背后是由标准普尔道琼斯指说的 60 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:53,420 只说委员会维护 61 00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:55,420 但是运行逻辑非常统一 62 00:01:55,420 --> 00:01:56,640 而且相当能写 63 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:57,900 想要进这个指数 64 00:01:57,900 --> 00:01:59,420 它光靠体量是不够的 65 00:01:59,420 --> 00:02:01,310 你必须满足几个硬条件 66 00:02:01,310 --> 00:02:02,810 第一就是持续盈利 67 00:02:02,810 --> 00:02:04,750 而且是按照美国的会计准则 68 00:02:04,750 --> 00:02:06,590 连续四个季度都要赚钱 69 00:02:06,590 --> 00:02:09,219 不是某一个季度运气好就能混进来 70 00:02:09,219 --> 00:02:11,840 第二就是它的流动性必须足够高 71 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,259 它的股票要有真实的交易活跃度 72 00:02:14,259 --> 00:02:16,110 不能是没人碰的僵尸股 73 00:02:16,110 --> 00:02:18,870 第三就是公司的主体必须扎根美国 74 00:02:18,870 --> 00:02:20,310 这本质上就是筛选 75 00:02:20,310 --> 00:02:23,000 处于最强主权信用体系里的企业 76 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,500 但是真正关键的不是怎么进来 77 00:02:25,500 --> 00:02:27,430 而是为什么会被踢出去 78 00:02:27,430 --> 00:02:30,069 只要有一天你不再满足这条条件 79 00:02:30,069 --> 00:02:31,870 不管你过去有多么的辉煌 80 00:02:31,870 --> 00:02:33,210 都会被直接剔除 81 00:02:33,210 --> 00:02:34,349 这里没有情怀 82 00:02:34,349 --> 00:02:36,379 也没有所谓的历史地位加分 83 00:02:36,379 --> 00:02:38,280 只说不关心你曾经是谁 84 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,379 他只看你现在还能不能赚钱 85 00:02:40,379 --> 00:02:42,620 能不能代表当下的经济结构 86 00:02:42,620 --> 00:02:43,979 这套机制的核心 87 00:02:43,979 --> 00:02:46,650 其实就是一种持续无差别的过滤 88 00:02:46,650 --> 00:02:48,090 对于投资者来说 89 00:02:48,090 --> 00:02:49,430 这一点非常重要 90 00:02:49,430 --> 00:02:52,789 因为它意味着你不需要去预测谁是下一个赢家 91 00:02:52,789 --> 00:02:55,149 也不需要压住某一个具体行业 92 00:02:55,149 --> 00:02:58,109 你持有的其实是一套会自我更新的系统 93 00:02:58,109 --> 00:03:00,069 而不是一份静态的名单 94 00:03:00,069 --> 00:03:02,509 我们把时间拉回到1957年 95 00:03:02,509 --> 00:03:04,330 标普500刚刚诞生的时候 96 00:03:04,330 --> 00:03:07,229 里面的构成和今天完全是两个事件 97 00:03:07,229 --> 00:03:09,430 当时是工业企业占绝对主导 98 00:03:09,430 --> 00:03:12,500 还有大量的公用事业公司以及铁路企业 99 00:03:12,500 --> 00:03:13,580 在那个年代 100 00:03:13,580 --> 00:03:15,829 铁路就是美国经济的核心命脉 101 00:03:15,829 --> 00:03:18,269 但如果你当年死守铁路这个赛道 102 00:03:18,269 --> 00:03:19,549 不放到今天 103 00:03:19,549 --> 00:03:21,528 大概率早就被时代淘汰了 104 00:03:21,528 --> 00:03:22,429 问题在于 105 00:03:22,429 --> 00:03:24,019 指数不会固步自封 106 00:03:24,019 --> 00:03:25,899 它会随着经济结构的变化 107 00:03:25,899 --> 00:03:28,159 不断去更替它的底层资产 108 00:03:28,159 --> 00:03:29,680 把铁路换成半导体 109 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,759 把传统工业让位给互联网 110 00:03:31,759 --> 00:03:35,349 再逐步纳入人工智能和生物医药行业在变 111 00:03:35,349 --> 00:03:36,150 公司在变 112 00:03:36,150 --> 00:03:37,909 甚至商业范式都在变 113 00:03:37,909 --> 00:03:41,430 但是那套优胜劣汰的筛选逻辑从来没有改变 114 00:03:41,430 --> 00:03:42,610 他只做一件事 115 00:03:42,610 --> 00:03:45,610 就是持续拥抱当下最有生命力的资产 116 00:03:45,610 --> 00:03:48,819 同时毫不犹豫地抛弃已经掉队的过去 117 00:03:48,819 --> 00:03:49,780 那讲到这里 118 00:03:49,780 --> 00:03:52,620 很多人可能会觉得这听起来很完美 119 00:03:52,620 --> 00:03:56,030 但是问题是他在真实世界里真的有效吗 120 00:03:56,030 --> 00:03:57,110 我们不讲理论 121 00:03:57,110 --> 00:03:59,349 直接拉两个最极端的案例出来 122 00:03:59,349 --> 00:04:01,969 你就会明白这套机制到底有多冷血 123 00:04:01,969 --> 00:04:04,469 但是又有多么的有用 124 00:04:06,439 --> 00:04:09,039 在2008年全球金融危机之前 125 00:04:09,039 --> 00:04:12,069 花旗和苹果这两家公司都在标普500里面 126 00:04:12,069 --> 00:04:14,330 那如果你当年是单独持有花期 127 00:04:14,330 --> 00:04:15,870 很可能在它暴跌的时候 128 00:04:15,870 --> 00:04:17,310 不断的给自己找理由 129 00:04:17,310 --> 00:04:18,910 这是大银行不可能倒 130 00:04:18,910 --> 00:04:20,339 于是一路死扛 131 00:04:20,339 --> 00:04:22,540 结果就是时间拉回到今天 132 00:04:22,540 --> 00:04:26,060 花旗的股价依然距离当年的高点非常遥远 133 00:04:26,060 --> 00:04:27,420 反过来再看苹果 134 00:04:27,420 --> 00:04:28,740 如果你是单独持有 135 00:04:28,740 --> 00:04:32,160 很可能在它刚翻一倍的时候就选择止盈离场 136 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:33,788 觉得自己已经赚够了 137 00:04:33,788 --> 00:04:36,629 但是后面的行情你也知道它不是涨一倍 138 00:04:36,629 --> 00:04:37,548 两倍的问题 139 00:04:37,548 --> 00:04:40,548 而是一个长期持续的指数级的扩张 140 00:04:40,548 --> 00:04:42,088 问题的核心在于 141 00:04:42,088 --> 00:04:46,000 人很难同时做好止损和让利润奔跑这两件事 142 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,160 但是如果你持有的是标普500 143 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:49,819 逻辑就完全变了 144 00:04:49,819 --> 00:04:51,660 整个系统会根据市值 145 00:04:51,660 --> 00:04:52,339 盈利能力 146 00:04:52,339 --> 00:04:55,918 这些核心指标持续动态去调整它的权重 147 00:04:55,918 --> 00:04:58,598 像花旗这种在周期中掉队的公司 148 00:04:58,598 --> 00:05:01,358 它在指数里的占比会不断的被压缩 149 00:05:01,358 --> 00:05:03,418 直到被边缘化甚至剔除 150 00:05:03,418 --> 00:05:05,238 而像苹果这样的赢家 151 00:05:05,238 --> 00:05:09,408 他的权重会跟随着基本面和市值扩张不断提升 152 00:05:09,408 --> 00:05:11,129 这里有一个很关键的点 153 00:05:11,129 --> 00:05:14,490 就是指数从来不要求每一家公司都成功 154 00:05:14,490 --> 00:05:16,889 他只需要确保赢家创造的收益 155 00:05:16,889 --> 00:05:19,089 能够覆盖掉输家的损失 156 00:05:19,089 --> 00:05:20,730 而对于投资者来说 157 00:05:20,730 --> 00:05:23,910 真正的价值就在于那条最难执行的纪律 158 00:05:23,910 --> 00:05:25,759 被系统替你完成了 159 00:05:25,759 --> 00:05:28,680 你不需要盯着屏幕纠结要不要割掉花旗 160 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,000 也不需要反复挣扎 161 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,620 要不要继续拿着苹果系统会用一套没有情绪 162 00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:36,819 没有偏见的规则自动完成卖掉失败者 163 00:05:36,819 --> 00:05:38,610 加仓胜利者这件事情 164 00:05:38,610 --> 00:05:41,329 这种激励恰恰是大多数人最缺的 165 00:05:41,329 --> 00:05:43,829 但又最决定长期收益的东西 166 00:05:43,829 --> 00:05:45,670 那如果你理解了这一点 167 00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:48,870 其实你已经抓住了指数投资最核心的价值 168 00:05:48,870 --> 00:05:52,350 他帮你完成了人性最做不到的那一步迈出 169 00:05:52,350 --> 00:05:53,449 但是这个时候 170 00:05:53,449 --> 00:05:56,418 很多更聪明的人可能会站起来提一个问题 171 00:05:56,418 --> 00:05:58,178 既然这系统在10H 172 00:05:58,178 --> 00:06:00,238 那为什么我不选一个覆盖更广 173 00:06:00,238 --> 00:06:02,338 股票更多的系统呢 174 00:06:04,259 --> 00:06:06,939 比如说先锋全球股票市场基金 175 00:06:06,939 --> 00:06:09,519 也就是VTI覆盖了3000多只股票 176 00:06:09,519 --> 00:06:12,480 不是比只有500只的标普500更好吗 177 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:13,879 这听上去很合理 178 00:06:13,879 --> 00:06:16,100 因为VTI更分散更全面 179 00:06:16,100 --> 00:06:17,399 好像风险更低 180 00:06:17,399 --> 00:06:20,620 但是问题是逻辑成立不代表结果成立 181 00:06:20,620 --> 00:06:22,800 我们先看一个最直观的事实 182 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:23,879 过去10年里 183 00:06:23,879 --> 00:06:25,360 标普500的整体表现 184 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,560 它其实是略微跑赢VTI的 185 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:28,759 为什么会这样呢 186 00:06:28,759 --> 00:06:30,060 核心在两个点 187 00:06:30,060 --> 00:06:32,089 第一个是权重结构 188 00:06:32,089 --> 00:06:34,949 虽然VTI持有超过3500只股票 189 00:06:34,949 --> 00:06:38,170 但它绝大部分的权重依然集中在标普500 190 00:06:38,170 --> 00:06:39,370 这些大公司上 191 00:06:39,370 --> 00:06:41,889 至于那多出来的几千只中小盘股 192 00:06:41,889 --> 00:06:44,439 加在一起的占比还不到15% 193 00:06:44,439 --> 00:06:45,079 换句话说 194 00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:48,480 就是它对整体收益的影响其实是非常有限的 195 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,548 更像是边角料一般的存在 196 00:06:50,548 --> 00:06:52,769 但真正拉开差距的是第二点 197 00:06:52,769 --> 00:06:53,850 质量筛选 198 00:06:53,850 --> 00:06:56,709 标普500的底层逻辑是有盈利门槛的 199 00:06:56,709 --> 00:06:58,930 公司必须在美国会计准则下 200 00:06:58,930 --> 00:07:00,649 连续四个季度实现盈利 201 00:07:00,649 --> 00:07:02,209 才能够进入这个池子 202 00:07:02,209 --> 00:07:04,089 这本质上是在做一件事 203 00:07:04,089 --> 00:07:06,560 就是把能赚钱的公司筛选出来 204 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,620 而VTI的逻辑完全不同 205 00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:10,420 它更像是一场人口普查 206 00:07:10,420 --> 00:07:11,879 只要你是上市公司 207 00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:13,428 他基本上都会纳入 208 00:07:13,428 --> 00:07:15,309 这就带来了一个直接后果 209 00:07:15,309 --> 00:07:18,990 就是v ti里面掺杂了大量质量参差不齐的资产 210 00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:21,269 有些公司还没有稳定收入 211 00:07:21,269 --> 00:07:23,470 有些长期亏损靠融资维持 212 00:07:23,470 --> 00:07:26,538 甚至还有一些正走在价值归零的路上 213 00:07:26,538 --> 00:07:27,959 所以你可以这样理解 214 00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:30,918 标普500是一个带筛选机制的优选池 215 00:07:30,918 --> 00:07:32,978 而VTI更像是一份完整 216 00:07:32,978 --> 00:07:35,379 但是未经处理的全样本清单 217 00:07:35,379 --> 00:07:36,779 你要的到底是什么 218 00:07:36,779 --> 00:07:39,560 是一个已经帮你过滤过高质量的组合 219 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,168 还是一份什么都不晒的全集呢 220 00:07:42,168 --> 00:07:43,569 那再往上一层卡 221 00:07:43,569 --> 00:07:44,928 还有个更残酷的现实 222 00:07:44,928 --> 00:07:46,740 就是市场上那些管理着 223 00:07:46,740 --> 00:07:49,379 几百亿甚至上千亿美元的专业机构 224 00:07:49,379 --> 00:07:52,629 他们的业绩考核基准大多数都是标普500 225 00:07:52,629 --> 00:07:54,269 在过去的十多年里面 226 00:07:54,269 --> 00:07:55,430 大约85% 227 00:07:55,430 --> 00:07:57,870 到90%的主动管理基金 228 00:07:57,870 --> 00:07:59,399 都跑不赢这个指数 229 00:07:59,399 --> 00:08:01,220 这不是因为他们不够专业 230 00:08:01,220 --> 00:08:02,019 恰恰相反 231 00:08:02,019 --> 00:08:03,100 他们有模型 232 00:08:03,100 --> 00:08:03,759 有团队 233 00:08:03,759 --> 00:08:04,870 有信息优势 234 00:08:04,870 --> 00:08:05,750 问题在于 235 00:08:05,750 --> 00:08:07,870 标普500本身就已经持续 236 00:08:07,870 --> 00:08:09,908 在做一件极其高效的事情 237 00:08:09,908 --> 00:08:11,889 就是把美国经济里最赚钱 238 00:08:11,889 --> 00:08:15,480 最有竞争力的公司不断筛选出来并提高权重 239 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,920 当一套系统已经能够稳定筛出优胜者的时候 240 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:20,860 你再主动去跑那3000多只 241 00:08:20,860 --> 00:08:23,379 没有筛选过的公司里面去挑标的 242 00:08:23,379 --> 00:08:25,779 本质上是在提高你的决策难度 243 00:08:25,779 --> 00:08:27,379 而不是提高你的胜率 244 00:08:27,379 --> 00:08:29,819 所以问题最后就会变得很简单 245 00:08:29,819 --> 00:08:32,100 当绝大多数专业选手都跑不赢 246 00:08:32,100 --> 00:08:33,320 这个筛选器的时候 247 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,080 你为什么会觉得自己去挑那一堆杂草 248 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:37,519 反而更有优势呢 249 00:08:37,519 --> 00:08:39,840 那如果你现在已经接受了这一点 250 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:41,159 不是股票越多越好 251 00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:42,500 而是筛选更重要 252 00:08:42,500 --> 00:08:44,179 那接下来我们就来讲讲 253 00:08:44,179 --> 00:08:46,340 为什么我会把基金的核心仓位 254 00:08:46,340 --> 00:08:48,820 锁定在标普500上 255 00:08:49,639 --> 00:08:53,960 我们先来把市场上常见的几个选择快速过一遍 256 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,269 你就会更清楚为什么我最后留下这样一个答案 257 00:08:57,269 --> 00:08:58,529 先看QQQ 258 00:08:58,529 --> 00:09:00,289 他的问题不在于不好 259 00:09:00,289 --> 00:09:01,490 而在于太偏 260 00:09:01,490 --> 00:09:03,830 它的本质是一个行业压制工具 261 00:09:03,830 --> 00:09:05,690 它的科技权重占比极高 262 00:09:05,690 --> 00:09:08,350 同时又几乎完全排除了金融板块 263 00:09:08,350 --> 00:09:09,549 行距顺的时候 264 00:09:09,549 --> 00:09:11,149 他的表现会非常亮眼 265 00:09:11,149 --> 00:09:12,899 看起来像是最优解 266 00:09:12,899 --> 00:09:15,440 但是一旦科技板块进入深度回调 267 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,039 它的波动也会被放大 268 00:09:17,039 --> 00:09:18,970 回撤往往会更加剧烈 269 00:09:18,970 --> 00:09:19,970 那对我来说 270 00:09:19,970 --> 00:09:21,809 他就像一个进攻型的选手 271 00:09:21,809 --> 00:09:24,000 而不是可以长期打底的资产 272 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:25,639 再看罗素2000指数 273 00:09:25,639 --> 00:09:27,120 它代表的是小盘股 274 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,159 听起来小盘股很有吸引力 275 00:09:29,159 --> 00:09:29,720 空间大 276 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:30,340 故事多 277 00:09:30,340 --> 00:09:32,179 但是落到了实际投资上面 278 00:09:32,179 --> 00:09:33,419 他的问题也很直接 279 00:09:33,419 --> 00:09:35,120 就是它的波动性极高 280 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:36,950 而且抗风险能力偏弱 281 00:09:36,950 --> 00:09:38,549 尤其是在利率上行 282 00:09:38,549 --> 00:09:40,809 或者是流动性收紧的周期里面 283 00:09:40,809 --> 00:09:41,789 很多小公司 284 00:09:41,789 --> 00:09:45,120 它本身是缺乏盈利能力或者是现金流支撑的 285 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,679 它的恢复周期会明显长于大盘 286 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,409 甚至有一部分企业他根本熬不过去 287 00:09:50,409 --> 00:09:51,990 然后是道琼斯指数 288 00:09:51,990 --> 00:09:54,289 这个指说它更像是一个历史符号 289 00:09:54,289 --> 00:09:56,009 它只有30家成分股 290 00:09:56,009 --> 00:09:57,919 而且采用的是股价加权 291 00:09:57,919 --> 00:09:59,519 也就是说股价越高 292 00:09:59,519 --> 00:10:00,320 权重越大 293 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,899 而不是看公司的市值 294 00:10:01,899 --> 00:10:04,220 这就带来了一个很不合理的结果 295 00:10:04,220 --> 00:10:06,120 就是只要公司进行拆股 296 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,679 他在指数中的影响力就会发生变化 297 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,440 但是公司的基本面其实并没有改变 298 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,279 它适合用来代表新闻里的市场情绪 299 00:10:14,279 --> 00:10:16,559 而不是用来承载长期财富增长 300 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:17,909 这个逻辑站不住 301 00:10:17,909 --> 00:10:18,789 所以对比下来 302 00:10:18,789 --> 00:10:21,149 你就会发现这些工具各有特点 303 00:10:21,149 --> 00:10:23,470 但是要么是太集中在某个行业 304 00:10:23,470 --> 00:10:24,889 要么就是波动过高 305 00:10:24,889 --> 00:10:27,250 要么就是方法论本身就有缺陷 306 00:10:27,250 --> 00:10:28,610 而标普500的位置 307 00:10:28,610 --> 00:10:30,889 刚好在一个非常微妙的平衡点上 308 00:10:30,889 --> 00:10:31,830 它足够广 309 00:10:31,830 --> 00:10:34,210 能够覆盖美国最核心的经济结构 310 00:10:34,210 --> 00:10:35,429 他也足够干净 311 00:10:35,429 --> 00:10:36,590 通过盈利筛选 312 00:10:36,590 --> 00:10:39,480 把长期亏损质量较差的公司排除在外 313 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,519 你最终拿到的不是一对股票的简单拼接 314 00:10:42,519 --> 00:10:46,360 而是一台在持续运转不断自我优化的经济引擎 315 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,500 但是问题远还没有结束 316 00:10:48,500 --> 00:10:50,159 因为在实际操作层面 317 00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:51,480 还有最后一次分歧 318 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,620 就是同样是标普500指数 319 00:10:53,620 --> 00:10:56,580 为什么我会选择标普500ETF信托 320 00:10:56,580 --> 00:10:58,830 也就是s spy这支ETF 321 00:10:58,830 --> 00:11:01,210 而不是先锋标普500指数基金 322 00:11:01,210 --> 00:11:05,129 VOO或者是ASHARS核心标普500指数ETF 323 00:11:05,129 --> 00:11:07,389 也就是艾薇薇呢 324 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:10,379 从表面来看 325 00:11:10,379 --> 00:11:11,480 这个问题很简单 326 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,078 就是费用率VOO大概是0.03% 327 00:11:15,078 --> 00:11:17,339 s spy大概是0.09 328 00:11:17,339 --> 00:11:19,470 看起来s spy贵了三倍 329 00:11:19,470 --> 00:11:21,509 所以如果你的策略非常纯粹 330 00:11:21,509 --> 00:11:22,629 就是长期买入 331 00:11:22,629 --> 00:11:23,600 几乎不操作 332 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,580 甚至买完就不怎么看账户 333 00:11:25,580 --> 00:11:27,299 那选VOO很合理 334 00:11:27,299 --> 00:11:30,059 省下来的费用确实就是实打实的收益 335 00:11:30,059 --> 00:11:32,360 但是一旦你的目标不只是持有 336 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,960 而是想在这个地基上面叠加策略 337 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,440 比如说期权对冲来做收益增强 338 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,100 那答案基本上只剩一个 339 00:11:39,100 --> 00:11:40,370 就是s spy 340 00:11:40,370 --> 00:11:42,269 它的核心差异只有一个词 341 00:11:42,269 --> 00:11:43,649 那就是流动性 342 00:11:43,649 --> 00:11:45,950 s spy是整个市场里最深 343 00:11:45,950 --> 00:11:48,850 最活跃的ETF及其期权交易标的 344 00:11:48,850 --> 00:11:49,710 没有之一 345 00:11:49,710 --> 00:11:52,870 他的买卖差价通常是压到了一美分的级别 346 00:11:52,870 --> 00:11:56,500 它的成交量几乎覆盖了所有行权价和到期日 347 00:11:56,500 --> 00:11:59,360 你可以在任何时刻快速的进出仓位 348 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,379 而不会明显的影响价格 349 00:12:01,379 --> 00:12:03,299 这件事情在做现货的时候 350 00:12:03,299 --> 00:12:05,200 你感觉到的可能不是那么强 351 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,399 但是一旦进入到了期权层面 352 00:12:07,399 --> 00:12:08,679 就完全不一样 353 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,179 因为期权交易里面 354 00:12:10,179 --> 00:12:11,480 真正吃掉你收益的 355 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,059 往往不是那0.06%的费用差 356 00:12:14,059 --> 00:12:16,259 而是买卖价差和滑点 357 00:12:16,259 --> 00:12:18,460 如果你在像IVV这种期权 358 00:12:18,460 --> 00:12:20,840 流动性相对弱一些的标题上操作 359 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:21,879 每一笔交易 360 00:12:21,879 --> 00:12:23,139 多付出的几美分 361 00:12:23,139 --> 00:12:25,240 很可能就超过了一整年的费用 362 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:25,870 利差 363 00:12:25,870 --> 00:12:29,549 还有一个更关键的点就是SPV的期权链本身 364 00:12:29,549 --> 00:12:31,350 就是整个市场里最完整 365 00:12:31,350 --> 00:12:33,419 最标准化的一套工具体系 366 00:12:33,419 --> 00:12:35,139 几乎所有的复杂策略 367 00:12:35,139 --> 00:12:36,360 无论是卖出期权 368 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,240 赚权利金还是做对冲 369 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:39,480 做结构化的组合 370 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,068 都可以在这套体系上高效执行 371 00:12:42,068 --> 00:12:43,708 所以从我的角度来看 372 00:12:43,708 --> 00:12:46,509 s spy它不只是一个简单的指数ETF 373 00:12:46,509 --> 00:12:49,700 它更像是一整套完整的金融基础设施 374 00:12:49,700 --> 00:12:51,539 如果你只是想买一个市场 375 00:12:51,539 --> 00:12:53,068 那么VOOO足够 376 00:12:53,068 --> 00:12:55,908 但是如果你想在这个市场上做更复杂 377 00:12:55,908 --> 00:12:57,089 更精细的操作 378 00:12:57,089 --> 00:13:00,809 那s spy才是真正能够让策略落地的工具 379 00:13:00,809 --> 00:13:03,250 所以你会发现我们绕了一大圈 380 00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:05,769 从买卖角色一路讲到指数选择 381 00:13:05,769 --> 00:13:07,679 再落地到具体的工具 382 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,440 表面上是在选ETF 383 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,500 但是本质上其实是在解决一个更深的问题 384 00:13:12,500 --> 00:13:16,320 你到底要不要把纪律这件事情交给系统 385 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,450 那现在我们说到这里就来做一个总结吧 386 00:13:21,450 --> 00:13:22,330 标普500 387 00:13:22,330 --> 00:13:24,429 它从来不是一个很刺激的投资 388 00:13:24,429 --> 00:13:26,350 它不会让你几个月翻倍 389 00:13:26,350 --> 00:13:29,789 也不会让你在饭局上显得像一个看透未来的人 390 00:13:29,789 --> 00:13:31,549 但他真正厉害的地方在于 391 00:13:31,549 --> 00:13:34,110 帮你解决了投资里最难的三件事 392 00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:37,250 第一就是他把卖出这件事情给外包 393 00:13:37,250 --> 00:13:38,450 什么时候止损 394 00:13:38,450 --> 00:13:39,730 什么时候锁定收益 395 00:13:39,730 --> 00:13:41,049 不再依赖你的情绪 396 00:13:41,049 --> 00:13:42,649 而是由系统自动完成 397 00:13:42,649 --> 00:13:45,589 第二就是它能随着经济结构自动进化 398 00:13:45,589 --> 00:13:47,548 无论下一轮主线是AI 399 00:13:47,548 --> 00:13:49,729 生物科技还是别的什么新东西 400 00:13:49,729 --> 00:13:51,109 赢家都会被纳入 401 00:13:51,109 --> 00:13:52,649 输家都会被淘汰 402 00:13:52,649 --> 00:13:55,970 第三就是它提供了一个足够稳固的底层 403 00:13:55,970 --> 00:13:58,490 让你可以在上面叠加更复杂的策略 404 00:13:58,490 --> 00:14:00,860 而不用担心基础本身出问题 405 00:14:00,860 --> 00:14:02,879 很多人把它叫做被动投资 406 00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:05,600 听起来好像买了之后什么都不用做 407 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,340 但更准确的说法是你是被动的 408 00:14:08,340 --> 00:14:10,899 但是这个指数本身一点都不被动 409 00:14:10,899 --> 00:14:12,200 他一直在筛选 410 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:12,879 在剔除 411 00:14:12,879 --> 00:14:14,120 在调整权重 412 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,389 而且执行得非常有纪律 413 00:14:16,389 --> 00:14:19,350 沃伦巴菲特曾经讲过一句很有意思的话 414 00:14:19,350 --> 00:14:20,769 对于普通投资者 415 00:14:20,769 --> 00:14:22,029 甚至包括他的妻子 416 00:14:22,029 --> 00:14:23,950 最好的选择就是长期定投 417 00:14:23,950 --> 00:14:25,440 低成本的标普500 418 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,559 一个靠选股走到顶点的人 419 00:14:27,559 --> 00:14:30,480 反而建议大多数人不要选股这件事情 420 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,789 本身就值得我们认真的想一想 421 00:14:32,789 --> 00:14:35,710 因为投资这件事情真正能够拉开差距的 422 00:14:35,710 --> 00:14:36,789 不是你多聪明 423 00:14:36,789 --> 00:14:39,230 而是你能不能在关键时刻做对那些 424 00:14:39,230 --> 00:14:41,409 你本能上最想做错的决定 425 00:14:41,409 --> 00:14:42,330 如果你做不到 426 00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:44,309 那就让系统替你做到 427 00:14:44,309 --> 00:14:46,769 所以最后我想跟大家说的就两句话 428 00:14:46,769 --> 00:14:48,190 把纪律外包出去 429 00:14:48,190 --> 00:14:50,049 把耐心留在自己手里 430 00:14:50,049 --> 00:14:52,570 那你是更倾向于做一个指数投资者 431 00:14:52,570 --> 00:14:54,250 还是更享受个股的博弈呢 432 00:14:54,250 --> 00:14:56,269 可以在评论区讲讲你的看法 433 00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:59,350 那同时呢我们的交流俱乐部已经开放 434 00:14:59,350 --> 00:15:02,129 可以点击评论区的置顶链接加入我们 435 00:15:02,129 --> 00:15:05,379 那在这里呢我不仅会同步我的实时调仓逻辑 436 00:15:05,379 --> 00:15:07,460 更会把那些不方便的视频里面 437 00:15:07,460 --> 00:15:10,000 公开的核心研判数据直接共享 438 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,159 那名额有限 439 00:15:11,159 --> 00:15:11,879 先到先得 440 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:14,600 我希望能和那些真正志同道合的朋友们 441 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:15,889 一起跑赢市场 442 00:15:15,889 --> 00:15:18,649 那如果你觉得这期视频对你有帮助的话 443 00:15:18,649 --> 00:15:20,710 也欢迎点赞订阅ruby投资笔记 444 00:15:20,710 --> 00:15:21,529 我是ruby 445 00:15:21,529 --> 00:15:23,129 咱们一期一会下期再见 446 00:15:23,129 --> 00:15:23,740 拜
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