伯恩斯坦-闪迪(SNDK.US)：2026财年三季报：ASP飙涨(现已锁定)；上调目标价至1700美元，重申跑赢大盘(短期首选)-260501

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大家好

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今天我们要来深挖一份非常硬核的内容

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华尔街目前热度极高的一份研究报告

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如果你平时比较关注科技和半导体板块儿

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那你绝对不想错过这份报告背后的底层逻辑

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咱们先不上价值

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直接看这个极其夸张的数字

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3264爬线没错

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在过去的一年里

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珊迪的股价实现了超过3000的百分点的惊人涨幅

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不仅如此

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他们本季度的平均售价

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也就是咱们常说的a asp环比暴涨了整整140个帕县

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这种爆发力在存储芯片行业里

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说实话简直可以用疯狂来形容了

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那么这场狂欢背后到底发生了什么呢

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今天我们就来层层拆解

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首先看看第三季度的财报数据

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然后探究一下平均售价飙升的原因

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接着重点聊聊最核心的LT范式转变之后

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我们还会对比一下竞争对手和资本回报情况

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好了

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咱们话不多说

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直接进入第一部分

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一起来拆解一下闪迪2026财年第三季度的这份神仙财报

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特别有意思

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你会发现这根本就不叫超出预期

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这完全是单方面的碾压啊

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山崎第三财季的营收直接干到了59.5亿美元

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而之前华尔街的普遍共识仅仅是47.2亿美元

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这差距绝对是一场全方位的大胜

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咱们把这季度的核心亮点捋一捋

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首先营收同比飙升了97倍

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赛势头极其生猛

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其次每股收益也就是EPS达到了23.4亿美元

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这数字有多夸张

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他直接把博士孙坦之前设想的最乐观的蓝天情景都给击穿了

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另外像刚提到的AASB环比暴涨了140%

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当然在一片大好中

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有一个看似负面的指标

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就是出货量出现了高十几位数的下滑

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不过别紧张

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这可不是需求疲软

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而是管理层在下一盘大棋

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他们在刻意囤积残能好

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为第四季度高容量NAND

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也就是QLC的大规模推出备足弹药

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既然价格涨得这么猛

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这就顺理成章的来到了我们的第二部分

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到底是什么在背后推高了这些平均售价

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接下来的走势又会怎么走

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从分析师给出的数据走向

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咱们能非常直观的看到这个变化

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那个高耸入云的峰值就是第三季度那140万的涨幅

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但是呢往右看

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针对第四季度的指引增速好像突然一个急刹车降到了中高十几位数

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估计不少人看到这种断崖式的放缓就会犯嘀咕了

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难道是增长见顶了

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动能不足了

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事实完全不是这样

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第四季度的增速放缓绝对不代表基本面变差了

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首先很大一部分价格增长已经被提前锁定

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算进了第三财季的业绩里

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这就叫增长提前兑现

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其次你得了解管理层给指饮食那种一贯的保守作风

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别忘了他们上季度给的a asp涨幅指引才50破三左右

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结果交出了140破三的经验成绩单

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还有最关键的一点

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闪迪开始引入全新的长期合同机制了

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这种机制在锁定未来价格的同时

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在账面上也会把单季度的极端暴涨变得更加平滑

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既然提到了长期合同

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那咱们就顺势进入今天的重头戏

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第三部分

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也就是LTI范式的转变

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这可是闪迪商业模式发生根本性改变的关键

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也是咱们重新评估这家公司的核心点

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到底什么是LTA和NBM呢

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简单来说

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这就代表着一种长达数年的深度战略捆绑

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他的目的很简单

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就是通过提前签协议

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把未来的价格和交易量都给锁死

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从而大幅降低难的存储市场

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历来那种让人心跳加速的暴涨暴跌

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到现在为止

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闪迪已经雷厉风行的签了五份这样的协议

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最长的期限能到5年

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更绝的是

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这些合同

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直接把他们2027财年预计需求量的1/3以上都给覆盖了

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这意味着什么

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意味着离2027年还有这么久

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闪迪已经把钱稳稳地揣进兜里了

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对于这种特别烧钱

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波动又大的行业来说

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这种确定性真的是无价之宝

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能让产能规划和研发投入变得前所未有的踏实

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咱们来并排对比一下

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你就能感受这种转变有多彻底了

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以前的旧策略下

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闪迪就像是在冲浪

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整天追着短期的价格飙升

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跑周期好的时候赚翻天

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一旦到了谷底

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随时可能被巨浪拍死

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市场波动极大

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但现在的新策略LTA呢

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这就好比在风浪里抛下了一枚超级稳的矛

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通过提前锁定价格和拿到了需处承诺

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闪迪等于是主动放弃了在某个单季度把价格压榨到极致的机会

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放弃短期暴利

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换来的是整个市场周期里极其稳定持久的利润率

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说实话

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这是一笔非常有战略眼光的划算买卖

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如果你觉得刚才说的还有点抽象

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那咱们直接上真金白银的数据

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这五份新协议带来了高达420亿美元的剩余履约价值

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也就是RPO

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注意了

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这可是基于价格底线算出来的

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啥意思呢

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就是说这420亿是一个绝对的最坏情况下的收入保底

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更夸张的是

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合同里还带了110亿美元的财务担保

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这代表啥

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如果客户中途想跑路毁约

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闪迪根本不用发货

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白捡这110亿的违约金

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而且这笔巨款是百分之百全额转化为毛利润

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简直就是一条又宽又深

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牢不可破的护城河

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弄明白了这些新玩法

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咱们进入第四部分

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放眼整个行业

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闪迪的新策略到底能打几分

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他又能给股东们带来多少实实在在的回报

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咱们把几家巨头的数据拉出来

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一比

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闪迪这招的杀伤力就一目了然了

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你看预计在2026年第一季度

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像商星这样的巨头asp增长大概在80分之高位区间

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SK海力士差不多在70分之中位

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但这俩数据放到闪迪那1/140的环比暴涨面前

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真的是相形见绌了

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正是因为提前布局了LTA战略

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闪迪在议价权上可以说是把竞争对手远远的甩在了身后

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这种结构性优势直接带来的就是极其恐怖的利润率

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有了LTTA的加持

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闪迪的飞机AP毛利率不仅短期内会狂飙

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而且预计到了2027财年还能稳稳站在80per3D上

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大家要知道

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在竞争这么激烈

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资本开支有极大的储存芯片行业

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能长期把毛利利率维持在80per3以上

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这绝对是一个让对手眼红到不行的盈利能力

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兜里揣着这么多稳定定的现金流

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管理层在怎么花钱这事上思路也特别清晰

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第一步

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最根本的继续砸钱投资业务

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把供应链的底盘弄得更扎实

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第二步还债

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这里插一句

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这一步人家现在已经彻彻底底干完了

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第三部也是大家最爱听的回馈股东

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这里面最大的惊喜是

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管理层刚刚宣布了一个全新的立刻生效的60亿美元股票回购计划

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这就是企业有底气

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有实力

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最直接的体现业绩的大爆发

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战略的成功转型

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再加上这么豪迈的资本回报

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共同把我们推向了今天分析的高潮

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进入第五部分

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咱们来看这个数字

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200.47美元

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这个数字分量极重

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为什么

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因为它比目前华尔街的普遍预期高出了整整60%

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分析师非常坚信一点

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华尔街的同行们严重低估了LTA模式给这家公司带来的

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脱胎换骨般的影响

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他们提到基于强劲的盈利超出预期的指引

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公司的积极表态

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还有现在极其强势的定价环境

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他们决定再次大幅上调预期

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直接把目标价拉到了1700美元

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重申跑赢大盘评级

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并直接把他钦定为短期首选股票

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分析师

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通过这些极其客观的财务模型证明了一点

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企业基本面的结构性重塑

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在市场上就理应享受更高的估值溢价

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好了

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在今天深入分析的最后

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我想留给大家一个特别值得深思的问题

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闪迪是不是真的靠这些全新的长期协议

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彻底打破了难得市场那该死的暴涨暴跌周期

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他们真的找到那个终结行业宿命的圣杯了吗

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还是说这不过是又一次存储器繁荣周期里最高潮时的一场狂欢

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无论答案是哪一种

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在这个永远充满变数的市场里

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珊迪正在努力重写游戏规则

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而这绝对值得我们持续关注

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感谢大家的陪伴

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保持好奇心

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