巴克莱-美国股票洞察：定价资本支出超级周期-260605

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想象一下这个画面

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仅仅两年后

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美国最大型企业的投资规模

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将出现前所未有的爆炸式增长

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我们要谈论的是一个惊人的数字

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40%

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根据巴克利银行的最新预测

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到2026年

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标普500指数成份股的总体资本支出

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也就是咱们常说的COPPEX

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将实现同比40%的狂飙

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这个是过去整整35年来最快的扩张速度了

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简直不可思议对吧

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这个令人瞠目结舌的数字

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正实实在在的在我们眼前

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重塑整个金融市场的格局

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欢迎来到本期的深度图解

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今天我们要解开当前市场上最引人入胜的谜题

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之一

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到底该如何为一场规模空前的资本支出

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超级周期进行正确价格

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大家也感受到了

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我们正处在

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一场由人工智能驱动的巨大投资浪潮中

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巨额资金正以前所未有的速度涌入市场

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对于咱们这些专注的投资者来说

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关键绝对不在于盲目追逐热点

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而是要透过现象看本质

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所以接下来

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我们将利用结构化的数据和清晰的逻辑

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一起解码这场AI投资狂潮背后的真正价值

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准备好了吗

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咱们开始吧

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好的

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一起来看看咱们今天的路线图

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首先我们会深入剖析当前的AI支出热潮

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其次听听昔日超级周期的回升

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接着探讨一下市盈率

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也就是P更而易失真这个让人头疼的难题

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随后我会给大家提供一个更清晰的估值视角

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最后咱们再聊聊如何驾驭目前的市场前景

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那么进入第一部分AI支出热潮

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资金规模与集中度

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我们现在正在见证的

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可以说是企业支出模式的一次

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彻底的节约性改变

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目前的资本支出有望吞噬掉标普500企业

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整整50%的营运现金流

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你没听错

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是一半

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刚才我们提到了

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那个创下35年纪录的增长率

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但这可不是一场雨露均沾的繁荣

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这些天文数字般的资金

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绝大多数都高度集中在极少数的几个领域

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没错就是那些AI超大规模计算巨头

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比如大型云服务提供商以及核心的芯片制造商

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大家看这里就会发现

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几乎所有资本支出的同比大幅增长

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都源于与超大规模计算密切相关的板块

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通信服务

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信息科技以及非必需消费品

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实际上

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这三大板块构成了AI基础建设的绝对主力

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他们的这种激进投资

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可以说是直接把整个科技

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媒体和通信行业的资本支出份额

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推向了历史最高点

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那么这个分化有多极端呢

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你看仅仅是科举

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媒体和通信

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也就是TMT这几个行业

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今年就将占据整个标普500指数

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资本支出的将近一半

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剩下的500强企业

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也就是其他所有传统行业

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加起来才勉强占到另外一半而已

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哪怕是跟2010年代后期的

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公共云建设热潮相比

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这种程度的资金集中度

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也是一个完全不同量级的跨越

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真的非常夸张

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接着进入第二部分

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昔日超级周期的回升

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以史为鉴

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机遇与风险

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当我们退后一步

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把当前这种企业拿出50%现金流

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用于投的狂热放到历史长河中去对比时

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你会发现

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基础建设

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还有2000年代中期的能源和房地产投资繁荣

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有着惊人的相似之处

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在过去那些时代

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这些庞大的资本支出

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最终确实极大地提升了全社会的生产力

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这毫无疑问

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但是咱们也必须记住硬币的另一面

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他们最终也都导致了极其痛苦的行业洗牌

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和漫长的产能消化期

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历史给我们的强烈警告

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可以说都浓缩在这句话里了

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即使是好的投资

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也可能过度

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人工智能绝对是一项伟大的技术

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相关基础建设也是不可或缺的好投资

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但问题是

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当资本密集度达到

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咱们现在看到的这种极端水平时

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过度投资的风险就会急剧上升

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从长远来看

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那些需要慢时间才能兑现的巨额回报

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往往伴随着短期内的价值毁灭

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这就引出了一个非常严峻的问题

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面对这样规模的投资

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我们究竟应该怎么为他们定价

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这就带我们来到了第三部分

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市盈率

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也就是PEE失真难题

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传统指标的局限性

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来我们对比一下这两种常用的估值工具

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大家最熟悉的市盈率

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PE在资本支出猛增的时期

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其实会变得非常脆弱

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为什么呢

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因为建设庞大的AI数据中心

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和买那些昂贵的芯片

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需要巨额的借款对吧

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这就会产生庞大的债务杠杆和利息

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同时这些重资产还会带来复杂的税收

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减免和巨额的折旧

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所有的这些因素都会严重扭曲

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净利润导致PE指标发生非线性的失真

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相比之下

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看右边企业价值位数

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也就是EV

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撇上EBIDA

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他剔除了资本结构

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税收和非现金折旧的影响

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反而更能反映投资者为企业核心营运资产

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所支付的真实价格

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我们继续看第四部分

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更清晰的估值视角

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中长期事业的终极利器

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所以最关键的一点是

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当你评估一家正在为了购买AI芯片

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而大规模举债扩张的公司时

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你绝对不能只盯着他的股权价值和净利润看

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你必须把它视为一个整体的企业项目

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EBTIDA不仅评估了公司的市场价值

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还把公司承担的债务包袱也计算在内

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也就是包含了知识这些资本支出的融资成本

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因为资本支出的超级周期

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往往需要持续好几年才能看到回报

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像EBTIDA这种企业层面的指标

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刚好与这种跨多年的中长期投资事业完美契合

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巴克莱的这项实证研究

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可以说绝佳的说明了这一点

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在那些资本支出高企的时期

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你看这条深蓝色的折线

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股票越便宜

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未来3年的回报率就越高

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反之股票越贵

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回报率就越低

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这是一种非常清晰的线性预测能力

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但你再看看那条代表PEE的浅蓝色折线

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中间居然发生了弯折

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完全失去了这种清晰的线性规律

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这就说明PE在这个时候已经没法准确

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衡量长期价值了

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不仅如此

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数据还告诉我们

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在这个特殊的经济体制下

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EV上EBITA在最便宜和最昂贵的股票之间

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能够拉开比市盈率更宽的回报率差

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这种更宽的立场进一步证明了什么

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证明了EV上EBITA是一个更加敏锐的信号

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它绝对是我们防范跨年度中长期

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估值过高的终极利器

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最后第五部分

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驾驭市场前景

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将理论转化为策略

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那么我们该怎么把这些转化成

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具体的市场策略呢

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首先咱们得警惕

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目前标普500的EV除以EBITD

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比起它自身的历史水平

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实际上比P1也显得还要昂贵

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而且这种高估值

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很大程度上是被那些AI建设的受益者

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比如硬件和半导体公司给硬生生撑起来的

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目前的共识预测是

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这种狂飙途径的资本支出

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大概会在2027或2028年开始减速

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不过这可不意味着我们要立刻抛售股票

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因为有强劲的盈利增长预期撑腰

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特别是科技板块的每股收益还在不断上升

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所以短期的市场环境依然是乐观的

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具有建设性的

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所以策略其实非常微妙

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短期内保持建设性参与

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但如果是在几年的中长期视野上布局

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你就必须利用EV除以EBITD

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去极其苛刻的精挑细选了

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为了让大家心里更有底

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我们来看看巴克莱给出的2026年

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标普500指数年底的预测

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在基准情境下

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也就是最可能发生的情况下

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企业盈利同比增长15.5%

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指数有望达到7650点

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如果在盈利极度强劲的乐观情景下呢

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可以看高到8200点

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但万一遇到下行风险

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悲观情境下可能会回落到5900点

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这就给大家评估当前市场点位的上行空间

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和下行风险提供了一个非常具体的对标基准

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随着这场可能是咱们这一代人所见过的

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最猛烈的资本支出狂潮继续演进

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我想在最后给大家留下一个这样一个终极问题

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去思考

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面对那些疯狂砸钱建设未来的公司

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你究竟愿意为他们未来产生的每一块钱的边际

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投资资本回报支付多少溢价

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下次当你审视自己的投资组合时

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不妨放下传统的市盈率

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试着用企业整体价值的镜头

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去重新打量这个被AI重塑的世界

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感谢收看本期图解

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我们下期再见

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