【Financial Education】AMD让我赚了200万美金，这只股票就是下一个！

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我希望你们准备好翻煎饼了

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我们即将在众多股票中迎来重大操作

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在这个视频开头这里

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我想继续进行的是

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我想分享我的完整全面的买入观察列表

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在这段视频中我想分享的是

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这些更像是领头羊

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在哪些吸引了我的注意

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哪些

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我最想买入的

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哪些

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我认为在未来一段时间有最大上涨潜力的

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所以我想分享这些

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在视频开头部分

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我们将深入探讨期待分享我的观点

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也分享我的视角

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今天

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看看这个

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我签下了三个六位数的奖杯

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七位数的奖杯

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很多人在市场上取得成功

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这些都是在我的私密群组里

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没错，我想花点时间讨论当散户投资者自我成功时

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如果这意味着市场顶部

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这类情况

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我认为这是一个重要话题

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需要讨论

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尤其是因为我已经在社交媒体上十年了

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此刻此刻

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完成这部分后

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我想谈谈edyarn

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丹尼

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Edyardenny

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讨论7月加息及其对市场的影响

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这真是个大胆的预测

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然后我们将听取华尔街专家

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分享他们管理投资组合的观点

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并基于此分享我的看法

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好的

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感谢大家今天观看这个视频

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只有一件事我需要

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如果能点击那个点赞图标

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如果还没这样做的话

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请这样做

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这就是我今天为你们做的视频所需

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我们将讨论很多内容并分享我的买入建议

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所有这些好东西

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这就是我需要的只是你的一个点赞

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另外请确保订阅频道

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如果还没订阅的话

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感谢已经订阅的每一位观众

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谢谢大家

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感谢已经点赞的每一位观众

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我将在我的Patreon黄金会员计划中为大家带来超值优惠

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这不是我的私密股票群组

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这是我的Patreon平台

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这真是太棒了

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如果你资产不足五十万

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或者你是投资初期的投资者

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这简直令人惊叹

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我的黄金会员是Patreon的最高级别

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对于我们的顶级会员

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通常为145美元

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我们当天特别定价为49美元

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如果你想获取下方置顶评论的访问权限

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请输入你的姓名、邮箱或手机号

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并选择接收方式

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如果你想通过邮件接收

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我们会通过邮件发送

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如果你想通过短信接收

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我们可以发送短信

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嗯

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这是访问我的顶级课程的权限

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可能成为掌握股市的终极课程，并获取买卖信息

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加入黄金会员还有其他专属福利

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请务必记住

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好的，已经准备好了

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女士们先生们

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让我们聊聊我计划买入的股票及其价格

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潜在涨幅是多少

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这类问题

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好的

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我关注的一只股票是

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TD公司

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这家公司确实让我很感兴趣

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目前TD的营收增长并未像之前那样快速

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关于这一点

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当前时间节点

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好的

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这家公司叫Trade Desk

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我从未持有过这只股票

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但它一直吸引着我的注意

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曾是一家高速成长的公司

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但其增长速度明显放缓

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查看过去十二个月营收为15%

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当前预计年增长为12%

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之前曾以20%以上增速增长

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没错

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但估值已趋于合理

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这反而让我非常 intrigued

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这个确实引起了我的注意

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这绝对值得考虑入手

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这不是我要找的那个

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我现在就准备下单了

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不过你知道的

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如果这个继续下跌

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尤其是跌到二十点

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我可能得在这里建仓

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Este Lauder

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我超爱这个

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啊我真的超爱这个

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我喜欢那些完全不用担心被颠覆的公司

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你知道的

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十年十五年二十年

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Este Lauder就是这样的公司

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他们拥有的品牌依然会成功

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从Este Lauder到Le Mair和众多其他品牌

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虽然不是百万个品牌

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但还有很多其他

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非常著名

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非常成功的美妆品牌

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他们拥有的美容产品

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他们赚了很多钱

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他们利润丰厚

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公司业务重回正轨

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现在

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在这个时间节点

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他们真的

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你知道的

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公司现在正处于转型关键期

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所以嗯

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公司盈利能力应该会大幅增长

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现在我们切换到千禧股票的图表功能

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输入L

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你会看到关于L的分析

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这家公司显然处境艰难

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收入持续下滑

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现在我们扭转了局面

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大概在这里

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开始出现正向营收增长

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这就是我们预期的发展方向

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我认为接下来只会越来越好

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每股收益情况也是如此

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我们按季度观察

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能清楚看到公司即将发生的变化

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关于每股收益

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每股收益将大幅改善

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看看自由现金流

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显然我们已经触底了

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所有指标均已触底

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一切都在朝着正确的方向发展

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Este Lauder 应该会越来越好

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我超爱 Este Lauder 一百美元以下的产品

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价格越低于一百美元

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就越值得购买

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谁吸引了我的注意

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我坚持关注 Hood 的一点是

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我想买入 Hood

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市场存在更多下行风险

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这是我关注 Hood 的一点

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我想入手 Hood

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你知道我们面临的问题是

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P500纳斯达克指数

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道琼斯工业平均指数

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两千点

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它们离历史新高不远了

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现在想买入 Hood 股票

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当市场受挫时

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这通常是入手的好时机

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所以我持续关注

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我已经很感兴趣了

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如果市场再受打击

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那么 Hood 将变得非常值得关注

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好的

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Elf 傲娇小精灵

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一百美元以下都是Elf的绝佳交易

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价格越低于一百美元

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对公司来说越划算

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听着

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财报前买入

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股价五十二美元

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财报前买入时机

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财报后将是买入时机

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无关紧要

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短期股价波动如何

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跌至四五十涨至六十五

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无关紧要

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财报后仍是买入

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好的

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记住这一点

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财报前买入

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财报后买入

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无论短期股价如何波动

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依然相关

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我认为股票将重回两百

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让我看看

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我有更新的预测

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对于

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如果我能获取预测

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我的电脑有点故障

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让我看看我有没有精灵

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L架

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Lc那里

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我们去装货

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你看看我这里有没有更新

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是的

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各位看这个

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看看我的阿尔夫基准案例

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我们讨论的是40%以上的类别

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听精灵们

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今天买入就是昨天买入

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今天买入就是明天买入

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今天买入就是下周买入

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今天买入就是下月买入

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今天就是买入

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现在是钢铁交易

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正是钢铁交易

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所以我超爱Sofi股票

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这又是绝佳选择

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我说啊

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这家公司运转顺畅

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安东尼带领公司增长迅速

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他们只需熬过未来衰退

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世界尽在掌握

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他们正迈向金融巨头

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任何低于二十

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我真的很喜欢目前情况

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若跌至十五就是钢铁交易

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关于Sofi geez蛋糕厂

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关于蛋糕可能就是其中之一

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你这家伙真厉害

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你知道你已大幅上涨

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你知道吗

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当我开始买蛋糕时

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股价约三十美元

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我仍想以58元买入

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总之蛋糕仍是钢铁交易

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所以你知道

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我明白过去几年涨幅很大

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自从我开始买入以来

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但它仍是钢铁交易

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四件十四元 他们有两大增长引擎

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00:07:24,589 --> 00:07:26,009
未来十年以上

244
00:07:26,009 --> 00:07:28,209
我喜欢可投资的公司

245
00:07:28,209 --> 00:07:29,550
我知道会盈利

246
00:07:29,550 --> 00:07:31,189
无论经济周期如何

247
00:07:31,189 --> 00:07:36,089
我知道能持续增长

248
00:07:36,089 --> 00:07:38,259
正是芝士蛋糕厂

249
00:07:38,259 --> 00:07:40,860
Fubo现在非常吸引人

250
00:07:40,860 --> 00:07:44,279
此时公司前景大幅改善

251
00:07:44,279 --> 00:07:45,408
但股价

252
00:07:45,408 --> 00:07:49,930
过去几年基本面在股价上有了大幅改善

253
00:07:49,930 --> 00:07:51,649
不是变得更糟对吧

254
00:07:51,649 --> 00:07:54,529
这就是股价的经典例子

255
00:07:54,529 --> 00:07:56,149
未能反映公司基本面

256
00:07:56,149 --> 00:07:58,790
我相信随着时间推移情况会改变 现在

257
00:07:58,790 --> 00:07:59,910
我太喜欢这个演讲了

258
00:07:59,910 --> 00:08:02,910
我最近多次谈论ServiceNow

259
00:08:02,910 --> 00:08:06,540
你们知道华尔街搞错了

260
00:08:06,540 --> 00:08:08,560
我认为他们很多SaaS股票都搞错了

261
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:09,980
我将ServiceNow归入此类

262
00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:12,389
Salesforce也会归入同一类

263
00:08:12,389 --> 00:08:16,259
我认为他们在股价认知上错了

264
00:08:16,259 --> 00:08:18,100
今年或五美元以上退出

265
00:08:18,100 --> 00:08:19,439
无论市场状况如何

266
00:08:19,439 --> 00:08:21,300
这是我个人的看法

267
00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:23,180
我认为将在财报中获得更多 clarity

268
00:08:23,180 --> 00:08:25,220
财报公布后人们会非常兴奋

269
00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:27,519
因为他们今年不得不做出很多艰难决策

270
00:08:27,519 --> 00:08:27,899
嗯

271
00:08:27,899 --> 00:08:28,980
实际上在去年年底

272
00:08:28,980 --> 00:08:31,639
今年的业绩数据已剥离了一些不良业务

273
00:08:31,639 --> 00:08:34,509
他们专注于提升利润率

274
00:08:34,509 --> 00:08:36,558
然后投入营销资金

275
00:08:36,558 --> 00:08:38,318
还有人力成本

276
00:08:38,318 --> 00:08:39,899
你们知道在员工层面

277
00:08:39,899 --> 00:08:43,019
真正聚焦于未来最佳业务

278
00:08:43,019 --> 00:08:45,339
我认为这将使我们比以往更强

279
00:08:45,339 --> 00:08:48,269
我认为股价将在五美元以上退出

280
00:08:48,269 --> 00:08:49,830
Meta这只股票

281
00:08:49,830 --> 00:08:50,330
你们明白的

282
00:08:50,330 --> 00:08:53,470
显然当扎克伯格

283
00:08:53,470 --> 00:08:55,009
停止疯狂支出

284
00:08:55,009 --> 00:08:58,469
或人们能更好理解原因

285
00:08:58,469 --> 00:09:01,779
他为何投入如此巨额资金

286
00:09:01,779 --> 00:09:03,519
当这两种情况之一发生

287
00:09:03,519 --> 00:09:05,799
股价将飙升至千美元以上

288
00:09:05,799 --> 00:09:07,659
但在此之前将保持低迷

289
00:09:07,659 --> 00:09:08,440
对吧 所以

290
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:08,860
你们知道

291
00:09:08,860 --> 00:09:10,200
以Meta这只股票为例

292
00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:10,919
你买入它

293
00:09:10,919 --> 00:09:12,000
放进文件柜

294
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:13,580
然后不断增持

295
00:09:13,580 --> 00:09:14,960
继续放进文件柜

296
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,210
最终两种情况之一会发生

297
00:09:19,250 --> 00:09:21,720
只有这两种情况

298
00:09:21,919 --> 00:09:22,440
要么

299
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,418
人们会理解扎克伯格的支出

300
00:09:25,418 --> 00:09:26,399
如此巨额的原因

301
00:09:26,399 --> 00:09:27,278
这是我们尚未理解的

302
00:09:27,278 --> 00:09:29,198
我不明白为什么我们需要花这么多钱

303
00:09:29,198 --> 00:09:30,359
所以我们都不明白这一点

304
00:09:30,359 --> 00:09:31,119
截至目前

305
00:09:31,119 --> 00:09:31,720
对的

306
00:09:33,519 --> 00:09:38,179
可能会有他大幅削减开支的情况出现

307
00:09:38,179 --> 00:09:40,879
长期来看，这两种情景中必有一现

308
00:09:40,879 --> 00:09:41,440
呃

309
00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:42,500
在未来三个月内

310
00:09:42,500 --> 00:09:43,820
六个月不行

311
00:09:43,820 --> 00:09:45,679
他可以像醉汉一样继续挥霍

312
00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,279
人们可能不会理解

313
00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:48,179
没人会说

314
00:09:48,179 --> 00:09:48,480
为什么

315
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:49,828
我们需要花这么多钱真够呛

316
00:09:49,828 --> 00:09:50,649
但呃

317
00:09:50,649 --> 00:09:51,328
从长期看

318
00:09:51,328 --> 00:09:51,668
比如

319
00:09:51,668 --> 00:09:53,688
这迟早会被理解的

320
00:09:53,688 --> 00:09:55,659
这就是元叙事

321
00:09:55,659 --> 00:09:56,940
这个让我非常着迷

322
00:09:56,940 --> 00:10:00,190
Paypal现在仍是绝佳价值

323
00:10:00,190 --> 00:10:00,590
你知道的

324
00:10:00,590 --> 00:10:03,009
这是优质价值股的经典案例

325
00:10:03,009 --> 00:10:04,169
说到Paypal

326
00:10:04,169 --> 00:10:05,690
你知道四八组合

327
00:10:05,690 --> 00:10:07,860
这里不会有太大损害

328
00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:09,460
现在Paypal真的不会受到什么影响

329
00:10:09,460 --> 00:10:10,299
在这个时间节点

330
00:10:10,299 --> 00:10:10,980
没错

331
00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:12,559
美国运通

332
00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,710
亚太地区顶级企业

333
00:10:15,710 --> 00:10:18,470
这只价值股很容易捕捉

334
00:10:18,470 --> 00:10:18,789
你知道的

335
00:10:18,789 --> 00:10:19,409
我总是强调

336
00:10:19,409 --> 00:10:20,350
GVD没错

337
00:10:20,350 --> 00:10:21,509
增长价值分红

338
00:10:21,509 --> 00:10:22,549
它也是分红股

339
00:10:22,549 --> 00:10:23,330
如果我没记错的话

340
00:10:23,330 --> 00:10:23,710
是的

341
00:10:23,710 --> 00:10:25,450
确实有分红

342
00:10:25,450 --> 00:10:26,149
嗯

343
00:10:26,149 --> 00:10:26,730
让我想想

344
00:10:26,730 --> 00:10:30,690
如果我对美国运通有预测

345
00:10:30,690 --> 00:10:32,590
我相信有

346
00:10:32,590 --> 00:10:37,860
让我们看看这里美国运通区域

347
00:10:37,860 --> 00:10:40,820
这里是AP负载数据

348
00:10:40,820 --> 00:10:41,899
确实如此

349
00:10:42,370 --> 00:10:44,789
我对美国运通的预测较为保守

350
00:10:44,789 --> 00:10:45,610
天啊

351
00:10:45,610 --> 00:10:46,490
他们很谦逊吗

352
00:10:46,490 --> 00:10:49,970
没错，看看我们在讨论什么

353
00:10:49,970 --> 00:10:50,950
天啊

354
00:10:50,950 --> 00:10:54,370
美国运通可能是股市中最容易被低估的股票之一

355
00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:56,159
看看我的预测

356
00:10:56,159 --> 00:10:58,279
我的基准预测显示年收入增长8%

357
00:10:58,279 --> 00:10:59,039
平均而言

358
00:10:59,039 --> 00:11:02,000
从27到30倍市盈率，净利润增长12%

359
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:03,450
这没什么夸张的

360
00:11:03,450 --> 00:11:05,570
对于这个商业模式如此稳定的公司

361
00:11:05,570 --> 00:11:06,009
我是说

362
00:11:06,009 --> 00:11:06,350
你知道的

363
00:11:06,350 --> 00:11:11,799
你应该能轻松获得20倍以上的市盈率

364
00:11:12,919 --> 00:11:13,320
哇

365
00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:15,860
我喜欢美国运通

366
00:11:15,860 --> 00:11:16,419
哦

367
00:11:16,419 --> 00:11:17,919
我是不是喜欢美国运通

368
00:11:17,919 --> 00:11:18,519
呃

369
00:11:18,519 --> 00:11:19,639
 Celsius

370
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,639
你想看看疯狂的预测吗

371
00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:23,360
让我展示给你

372
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,840
我的Celsius准备让你的煎饼翻转吧

373
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:27,460
好的

374
00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:29,049
看看这个

375
00:11:31,919 --> 00:11:34,240
我为Celsius的基准预测

376
00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,080
一家能量饮料公司

377
00:11:36,798 --> 00:11:39,678
现在我只预测他们年收入增长10%

378
00:11:39,678 --> 00:11:41,330
随着Celsius Alani

379
00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:43,409
如果他们能重新激活Rockstar

380
00:11:43,409 --> 00:11:44,690
在收购百事旗下后

381
00:11:44,690 --> 00:11:45,950
国际扩张

382
00:11:45,950 --> 00:11:47,750
10%的增长非常可行

383
00:11:47,750 --> 00:11:48,669
非常可行

384
00:11:48,669 --> 00:11:51,539
这简直太疯狂了

385
00:11:51,539 --> 00:11:52,639
这应该很容易

386
00:11:52,639 --> 00:11:53,100
轻轻松松

387
00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:54,000
柠檬榨汁

388
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,899
我的基准预测年收入平均增长10%

389
00:11:56,899 --> 00:11:58,659
净利润增长20%

390
00:11:58,659 --> 00:12:00,960
利润率仅17%

391
00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:02,799
到2030年对吧

392
00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:05,120
市盈率29-34倍

393
00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,940
这对增长营收的公司很合理

394
00:12:06,940 --> 00:12:07,919
10%的净利润率

395
00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:09,210
20%对吧

396
00:12:09,210 --> 00:12:12,210
我们说的35到40%

397
00:12:12,210 --> 00:12:18,909
Har Sell CS值得买入，BodyWorks也让我很感兴趣

398
00:12:18,909 --> 00:12:19,690
在此时此刻

399
00:12:19,690 --> 00:12:20,850
对啊，嗯

400
00:12:20,850 --> 00:12:22,450
消费者领域有很多负面情绪

401
00:12:22,450 --> 00:12:26,799
所以我感觉任何与消费相关的东西都表现不佳

402
00:12:26,799 --> 00:12:29,100
在股价方面也是如此

403
00:12:29,100 --> 00:12:30,659
六四点

404
00:12:30,659 --> 00:12:31,899
这让我很感兴趣

405
00:12:31,899 --> 00:12:33,580
我对此感到好奇

406
00:12:33,580 --> 00:12:35,000
宝洁和身体护理品牌

407
00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:36,389
耐克

408
00:12:36,389 --> 00:12:40,470
所以耐克四二四二钢企交易

409
00:12:40,470 --> 00:12:41,210
钢铁交易

410
00:12:41,210 --> 00:12:42,009
这又是另一个例子

411
00:12:42,009 --> 00:12:44,149
我把它们归为同一类，就像我归类到劳氏公司一样

412
00:12:44,149 --> 00:12:46,250
我不必长期担心这些公司

413
00:12:46,250 --> 00:12:46,990
阿尔法的情况也是如此

414
00:12:46,990 --> 00:12:49,129
我不必长期担心这些公司

415
00:12:49,129 --> 00:12:51,570
它们十年后仍将更相关

416
00:12:51,570 --> 00:12:52,870
并且今天就相关

417
00:12:52,870 --> 00:12:55,409
我认为CRM在这方面判断错了

418
00:12:55,409 --> 00:12:57,070
CRM相比其他公司的好处在于

419
00:12:57,070 --> 00:12:59,029
我们来比较一下功能特性

420
00:12:59,029 --> 00:13:01,450
我来展示一下ServiceNow的意思

421
00:13:01,450 --> 00:13:04,590
与Salesforce相比

422
00:13:04,590 --> 00:13:07,548
关于Salesforce而言

423
00:13:07,548 --> 00:13:08,668
相比其他公司的优势在于

424
00:13:08,668 --> 00:13:08,989
你知道的

425
00:13:08,989 --> 00:13:11,548
如果你在考虑Salesforce与ServiceNow的对比

426
00:13:11,548 --> 00:13:14,828
Salesforce的优势在于估值更低

427
00:13:14,828 --> 00:13:18,989
市盈率万亿前向市盈率当前前向市盈率

428
00:13:18,989 --> 00:13:20,788
同时增长速度也更低

429
00:13:20,788 --> 00:13:23,570
这是需要考虑的因素

430
00:13:23,570 --> 00:13:28,190
但你想要估值更低的标的

431
00:13:28,190 --> 00:13:28,669
这里

432
00:13:28,669 --> 00:13:32,009
在Salesforce这类股票上风险更小

433
00:13:32,009 --> 00:13:35,049
当谈论SaaS公司前向市盈率十三倍时

434
00:13:35,049 --> 00:13:37,009
而该公司增长如此迅猛

435
00:13:37,009 --> 00:13:37,529
嗯

436
00:13:37,529 --> 00:13:38,529
接下来是下一个

437
00:13:38,529 --> 00:13:40,289
Palantir 135美元

438
00:13:40,289 --> 00:13:42,190
Palantir让我充满兴趣

439
00:13:42,190 --> 00:13:44,279
天啊

440
00:13:44,279 --> 00:13:47,639
我有关于Palantir的最新预测吗

441
00:13:47,639 --> 00:13:48,879
我们来看看吧

442
00:13:48,879 --> 00:13:50,039
我可能

443
00:13:50,039 --> 00:13:51,879
但已经过去多久了

444
00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:53,600
我想要买入Palantir股票多久了

445
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:58,700
作为活跃买家已多年

446
00:13:58,700 --> 00:14:02,059
没错，我的基准假设是三十

447
00:14:02,059 --> 00:14:03,379
平均收入增长百分之五

448
00:14:03,379 --> 00:14:04,139
净利润增长

449
00:14:04,139 --> 00:14:07,080
平均四十到九十倍市盈率

450
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:08,559
因为增长速度如此之快

451
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:09,869
对，我们正在讨论

452
00:14:09,869 --> 00:14:12,109
如果这种情况发生三十个百分点

453
00:14:12,109 --> 00:14:12,749
加上哈格

454
00:14:12,749 --> 00:14:13,308
我们现在在这里

455
00:14:13,308 --> 00:14:13,749
你可以这么说

456
00:14:13,749 --> 00:14:14,068
好的

457
00:14:14,068 --> 00:14:17,379
如果市场真的给它们极低的估值

458
00:14:17,379 --> 00:14:19,000
我们称之为三十到四十

459
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,120
这简直荒谬

460
00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:21,659
对于一家利润增长的公司

461
00:14:21,659 --> 00:14:25,480
年增长四十百分比却估值三十到四十，简直荒谬

462
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,980
但你还是会得到卡

463
00:14:27,980 --> 00:14:33,470
这大概就是市场未来几年的表现水平

464
00:14:33,470 --> 00:14:34,029
没错

465
00:14:34,029 --> 00:14:37,580
所以但我其实喜欢这里分析的帕兰蒂尔

466
00:14:37,580 --> 00:14:37,860
我说过

467
00:14:37,860 --> 00:14:38,340
这是第一次

468
00:14:38,340 --> 00:14:39,399
几年来我第一次能这么说

469
00:14:39,399 --> 00:14:41,740
现在翰明斯让我非常感兴趣

470
00:14:41,740 --> 00:14:42,559
在这个时间点

471
00:14:42,559 --> 00:14:43,500
这又是另一个

472
00:14:43,500 --> 00:14:47,299
我现在正考虑买入翰明斯

473
00:14:47,299 --> 00:14:48,549
我确实担心

474
00:14:48,549 --> 00:14:49,230
你知道的

475
00:14:49,230 --> 00:14:50,950
如果他们要与亚马逊正面竞争

476
00:14:50,950 --> 00:14:52,070
这总是很艰难

477
00:14:52,070 --> 00:14:54,230
正面竞争总是很艰难

478
00:14:54,230 --> 00:14:55,230
但嗯

479
00:14:55,230 --> 00:14:55,909
翰明斯

480
00:14:55,909 --> 00:14:57,350
这看起来很有趣

481
00:14:57,509 --> 00:15:00,350
我认为他们未来几年会大幅增长

482
00:15:00,350 --> 00:15:03,799
翰明斯让我非常着迷

483
00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:06,789
现在在这个时间点非常着迷

484
00:15:06,789 --> 00:15:07,830
让我们查看图表

485
00:15:07,830 --> 00:15:08,970
分析翰明斯

486
00:15:08,970 --> 00:15:13,429
短期增长可能有些影响

487
00:15:13,429 --> 00:15:14,370
毫无疑问

488
00:15:14,370 --> 00:15:21,019
但长期来看应是强劲增长公司

489
00:15:22,659 --> 00:15:24,120
他让我着迷

490
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,559
翰明斯让我着迷

491
00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:26,139
好的

492
00:15:26,139 --> 00:15:30,759
然后我们看到rh股价在122

493
00:15:30,759 --> 00:15:32,480
谈到rh公司

494
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:33,299
我说

495
00:15:33,299 --> 00:15:36,159
显然住房行业一直在低迷

496
00:15:36,159 --> 00:15:38,000
但富人表现越来越好

497
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,279
但任何市场都如此

498
00:15:39,279 --> 00:15:39,919
没错

499
00:15:39,919 --> 00:15:43,039
这已经是成熟行业

500
00:15:43,039 --> 00:15:46,240
此时看来正重回正轨

501
00:15:47,399 --> 00:15:50,940
所以这对RH的P24在这个案例中是有利的

502
00:15:50,940 --> 00:15:52,059
两或四P十二

503
00:15:52,059 --> 00:15:53,019
相当低

504
00:15:53,019 --> 00:15:55,129
但显然像RH这样的股票

505
00:15:55,129 --> 00:15:57,110
市值两十亿美元的家具品牌

506
00:15:57,110 --> 00:15:59,049
显然属于高端家具

507
00:15:59,049 --> 00:16:01,529
顺便说一句，我正在RH的办公桌上录制

508
00:16:01,529 --> 00:16:02,009
嗯

509
00:16:03,090 --> 00:16:03,629
我的意思是

510
00:16:03,629 --> 00:16:06,830
你知道你永远无法为股票获得超高市盈率

511
00:16:06,830 --> 00:16:08,370
所以这只是需要记住的一点

512
00:16:08,370 --> 00:16:12,370
但确实处于高位，而惠而浦其实很有趣

513
00:16:12,370 --> 00:16:13,620
在四十美元价位

514
00:16:13,620 --> 00:16:15,700
这也是一个你知道的

515
00:16:15,700 --> 00:16:17,840
这个更面向大众市场

516
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:19,179
对于

517
00:16:19,179 --> 00:16:19,820
你知道的

518
00:16:19,820 --> 00:16:20,500
住房

519
00:16:20,500 --> 00:16:23,940
但它已引起兴趣

520
00:16:23,940 --> 00:16:24,559
四十美元

521
00:16:24,559 --> 00:16:28,220
我的意思是，我们离金融危机时期的估值不远

522
00:16:28,220 --> 00:16:28,879
对

523
00:16:28,879 --> 00:16:30,340
所以你知道的

524
00:16:30,340 --> 00:16:39,200
在这批股票中最想买入的是ELF Celsius

525
00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:44,269
所以是Estée Lauder

526
00:16:44,269 --> 00:16:45,639
对

527
00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:46,940
耐克

528
00:16:46,940 --> 00:16:48,000
我的意思是耐克

529
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,320
这里可能是个好时机

530
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,960
但我已持有大量耐克股份，几乎完成建仓

531
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:54,859
现在买入耐克已不太合适

532
00:16:54,859 --> 00:16:56,938
这点要记住

533
00:16:57,470 --> 00:17:00,350
之后我已经持有较大仓位

534
00:17:00,350 --> 00:17:00,710
说实话

535
00:17:00,710 --> 00:17:02,740
但可以增持更多耐克股份

536
00:17:02,740 --> 00:17:03,779
嗯，ServiceNow

537
00:17:03,779 --> 00:17:04,299
Salesforce

538
00:17:04,299 --> 00:17:09,609
我认为这些仍是长期优质标的

539
00:17:09,609 --> 00:17:11,890
还有像TD花园的股票

540
00:17:13,890 --> 00:17:16,309
RH hymns

541
00:17:16,309 --> 00:17:17,910
这类股票

542
00:17:17,910 --> 00:17:20,609
我正考虑开始建仓

543
00:17:20,609 --> 00:17:22,109
其中一些确实

544
00:17:22,109 --> 00:17:23,190
关键在于

545
00:17:23,190 --> 00:17:25,009
你知道资金有限

546
00:17:25,009 --> 00:17:26,430
如果资金不投入那里

547
00:17:26,430 --> 00:17:29,919
是否应投入，甚至Meta在六百美元时也很吸引人

548
00:17:29,919 --> 00:17:30,558
对

549
00:17:30,558 --> 00:17:34,219
但买入难度较大

550
00:17:34,219 --> 00:17:36,759
毕竟我以88美元买入了股份

551
00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:37,319
九十四

552
00:17:37,319 --> 00:17:38,839
我分享的是我买了一百以下的股票

553
00:17:38,839 --> 00:17:40,960
我分享的是我在120价位买入的

554
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,119
所以支付六百总是很困难

555
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,619
再加上过去只需花一百就能买到的东西

556
00:17:46,619 --> 00:17:47,839
但说实话这无关紧要

557
00:17:47,839 --> 00:17:51,619
然后芝士蛋糕工厂总是与此相反的操作

558
00:17:51,619 --> 00:17:54,289
好的，私密群大日子啊

559
00:17:54,289 --> 00:17:55,829
显然有很多人达到六位数收入

560
00:17:55,829 --> 00:17:58,630
七位数在这里是市场顶端的存在

561
00:17:58,630 --> 00:17:59,109
没错

562
00:17:59,109 --> 00:18:03,200
当你看到散户投资者达到这种成功水平

563
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,390
我的观点是作为现在已是散户投资者的人

564
00:18:07,390 --> 00:18:08,029
有多少年了

565
00:18:09,029 --> 00:18:12,069
十七八年了，现在在YouTube上十年了

566
00:18:12,069 --> 00:18:13,138
在这个时间点

567
00:18:13,138 --> 00:18:14,239
我的观点是

568
00:18:14,239 --> 00:18:14,939
好的

569
00:18:14,939 --> 00:18:17,170
在任何市场中

570
00:18:17,170 --> 00:18:19,089
都有表现糟糕的散户投资者

571
00:18:19,089 --> 00:18:21,329
也有表现优秀的散户投资者

572
00:18:21,329 --> 00:18:23,450
这取决于你在市场中的位置

573
00:18:23,450 --> 00:18:24,990
我还没见过这种情况

574
00:18:24,990 --> 00:18:26,259
你知道的

575
00:18:26,259 --> 00:18:27,598
大家都在表现惊人

576
00:18:27,598 --> 00:18:28,519
同时进行

577
00:18:28,519 --> 00:18:29,479
或者你知道的

578
00:18:29,479 --> 00:18:30,519
如果我说

579
00:18:30,519 --> 00:18:31,699
看看那些股票

580
00:18:31,699 --> 00:18:32,339
没错

581
00:18:32,339 --> 00:18:33,759
如果你持有

582
00:18:33,759 --> 00:18:35,660
想象你的投资组合

583
00:18:35,660 --> 00:18:36,640
交易台

584
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:37,019
好的

585
00:18:37,019 --> 00:18:39,559
今年你亏损了约四成

586
00:18:39,559 --> 00:18:41,829
没错，你在 Hood 的仓位

587
00:18:41,829 --> 00:18:43,809
今年下跌了三到五个百分点

588
00:18:43,809 --> 00:18:44,950
而你持有所以

589
00:18:44,950 --> 00:18:47,210
今年上涨了四到五个百分点

590
00:18:47,210 --> 00:18:49,740
没错，你持有 Service

591
00:18:49,740 --> 00:18:51,769
今年下跌了三成

592
00:18:51,769 --> 00:18:53,329
你在 Palantir 的仓位

593
00:18:53,329 --> 00:18:54,670
今年下跌了19%

594
00:18:54,670 --> 00:18:55,890
你在 Hymns 的仓位

595
00:18:55,890 --> 00:18:57,230
今年下跌了三成三

596
00:18:57,230 --> 00:18:58,069
兄弟

597
00:18:58,069 --> 00:18:59,750
对你来说这不是牛市

598
00:18:59,750 --> 00:19:01,470
你没有突破新高

599
00:19:01,470 --> 00:19:02,579
没错

600
00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:03,680
然而

601
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,599
如果你持有像

602
00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:07,640
我不知道

603
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,200
比如一只股票像

604
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,640
哦一个d

605
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:12,690
哦

606
00:19:12,690 --> 00:19:14,950
你现在的情况简直太好了

607
00:19:14,950 --> 00:19:16,849
你可能刚进入六位数俱乐部

608
00:19:16,849 --> 00:19:18,690
你可能刚进入七位数俱乐部

609
00:19:18,690 --> 00:19:21,500
如果你持有像美光科技这样的股票

610
00:19:21,900 --> 00:19:23,119
这是最好的股市

611
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:24,440
你可能正在突破新里程碑

612
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:25,980
新平静后的新逗号

613
00:19:25,980 --> 00:19:29,220
所以当我放眼望去看到成功

614
00:19:29,220 --> 00:19:32,119
我也看到很多人在市场中并未成功

615
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,220
我也看到很多人位置不对

616
00:19:34,220 --> 00:19:36,180
持有的股票未受益

617
00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:39,140
比如我认为大家从

618
00:19:39,140 --> 00:19:42,329
像amd在过去一年左右

619
00:19:42,329 --> 00:19:45,369
很多人持有未表现好的股票

620
00:19:45,369 --> 00:19:52,049
所以很容易看到持有美光和闪存盘

621
00:19:52,049 --> 00:19:52,710
和amd

622
00:19:52,710 --> 00:19:53,890
这类股票的人并说

623
00:19:53,890 --> 00:19:54,638
哦天啊

624
00:19:54,638 --> 00:19:55,798
股市是个泡沫

625
00:19:55,798 --> 00:19:57,598
大家都这么富有

626
00:19:57,598 --> 00:19:59,759
不不

627
00:19:59,759 --> 00:20:01,039
这并非现实

628
00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:02,799
如果你持有这些公司的股票

629
00:20:02,799 --> 00:20:03,859
你表现惊人

630
00:20:03,859 --> 00:20:06,000
没错在下一个周期

631
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,220
像amd这样的股票

632
00:20:07,220 --> 00:20:08,339
像美光这样的股票

633
00:20:08,339 --> 00:20:11,279
这些当前热门的其他股票

634
00:20:11,279 --> 00:20:13,579
可能短期内仍是热门

635
00:20:13,579 --> 00:20:15,388
它们可能最终降温

636
00:20:15,388 --> 00:20:18,788
然后像艾尔夫和凯尔西

637
00:20:18,788 --> 00:20:20,088
以及可能的交易台

638
00:20:20,088 --> 00:20:21,269
和这些其他股票

639
00:20:21,269 --> 00:20:22,888
所以我帕兰提尔

640
00:20:22,888 --> 00:20:24,888
或许会迎来强劲反弹

641
00:20:24,888 --> 00:20:26,539
很多SaaS股票将回归

642
00:20:26,539 --> 00:20:28,180
而其他股票则沉寂

643
00:20:28,180 --> 00:20:30,140
如果你持有这些股票

644
00:20:30,140 --> 00:20:30,960
你会感觉越来越好

645
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:32,579
但如果你持有amd和美光

646
00:20:32,579 --> 00:20:34,839
这类公司在特定时期

647
00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:37,140
你将处于

648
00:20:37,140 --> 00:20:37,779
哦

649
00:20:37,779 --> 00:20:39,480
我们这里能赚钱吗

650
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,730
这就是我对这个游戏的整体看法

651
00:20:42,730 --> 00:20:43,430
不要尝试

652
00:20:43,430 --> 00:20:43,950
你知道的

653
00:20:43,950 --> 00:20:44,730
相信我

654
00:20:44,730 --> 00:20:45,809
并非所有人都时刻如此

655
00:20:45,809 --> 00:20:46,130
高点

656
00:20:46,130 --> 00:20:48,138
现在并非所有人都在突破新高

657
00:20:48,138 --> 00:20:49,118
某些人确实

658
00:20:49,118 --> 00:20:50,439
如果你身处正确公司

659
00:20:50,439 --> 00:20:52,059
这些对你来说是重要位置

660
00:20:52,059 --> 00:20:52,880
但这个

661
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:53,619
你知道的

662
00:20:53,619 --> 00:20:54,799
我们最近分析过

663
00:20:54,799 --> 00:20:57,259
标普五百指数中超过七成

664
00:20:57,259 --> 00:20:58,160
三千指数下跌

665
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,440
较峰值下跌两位数百分比

666
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,720
较峰值下跌两位数百分比

667
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,549
百分之七十

668
00:21:04,869 --> 00:21:06,910
我们处于非常态市场

669
00:21:06,910 --> 00:21:08,990
目前有些表现惊人

670
00:21:08,990 --> 00:21:10,789
正是繁荣时期

671
00:21:10,789 --> 00:21:12,230
赚得比自己能处理的还多

672
00:21:12,230 --> 00:21:14,174
而很多人却不然

673
00:21:14,869 --> 00:21:17,349
有人认为经济形势相似

674
00:21:17,349 --> 00:21:18,289
好的

675
00:21:18,289 --> 00:21:19,230
让我们回应一些市场

676
00:21:19,230 --> 00:21:20,130
七月华尔街

677
00:21:20,130 --> 00:21:20,930
现在继续讨论

678
00:21:20,930 --> 00:21:21,710
来自本人

679
00:21:21,710 --> 00:21:23,849
他是你们的研究总监

680
00:21:23,849 --> 00:21:24,930
他现在与我们连线欢迎

681
00:21:24,930 --> 00:21:26,170
很高兴与你交谈

682
00:21:26,170 --> 00:21:27,009
谢谢

683
00:21:27,009 --> 00:21:28,450
今天你引起了不少关注

684
00:21:28,450 --> 00:21:31,599
在这个牛市中你立场坚定

685
00:21:31,599 --> 00:21:35,619
并坚持年底目标八十二点五

686
00:21:35,619 --> 00:21:37,059
年底前目标八十二点五

687
00:21:37,059 --> 00:21:41,888
但你认为美联储可能暂缓加息节奏

688
00:21:41,888 --> 00:21:43,489
八十二点五

689
00:21:43,489 --> 00:21:44,568
这预测太准了

690
00:21:44,568 --> 00:21:45,588
标普五百指数

691
00:21:45,588 --> 00:21:47,288
目前我认为约七千四百点

692
00:21:47,288 --> 00:21:48,859
大致在这个区间

693
00:21:48,859 --> 00:21:50,400
谈到八十二点五

694
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:51,539
这就是预测

695
00:21:51,539 --> 00:21:52,359
天啊

696
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,359
七月加息

697
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:55,000
嗯

698
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,839
我认为债市在呼吁加息

699
00:21:57,839 --> 00:21:58,559
我认为原因

700
00:21:58,559 --> 00:22:04,079
债券收益率上升是因为市场认为美联储应对通胀滞后

701
00:22:04,079 --> 00:22:10,019
美联储必须明确表明他们正在放弃宽松政策倾向

702
00:22:10,019 --> 00:22:15,730
这正是他们在四月会议上所采取的立场，并转向中性政策倾向

703
00:22:15,730 --> 00:22:18,759
但在六月会议上已转为紧缩政策倾向

704
00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:21,859
接下来几周就要到来

705
00:22:21,859 --> 00:22:24,579
之后我认为他们必须跟进

706
00:22:24,579 --> 00:22:29,319
并真正展示愿意加息25个基点的意愿

707
00:22:29,319 --> 00:22:31,480
两年期国债收益率现在

708
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,180
表明联邦基金利率仍偏低

709
00:22:35,180 --> 00:22:39,109
联邦基金利率区间为3.5%至3.7%

710
00:22:39,109 --> 00:22:40,130
5%

711
00:22:40,130 --> 00:22:42,009
两年期收益率4.1%

712
00:22:42,009 --> 00:22:45,490
这是一个很好的领先指标显示美联储应采取的行动

713
00:22:45,490 --> 00:22:47,769
并且经常能准确判断

714
00:22:47,769 --> 00:22:48,630
哦

715
00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:50,390
你是美联储的一员

716
00:22:50,390 --> 00:22:51,730
跟随市场派

717
00:22:51,730 --> 00:22:53,769
听起来好像

718
00:22:53,769 --> 00:22:56,589
我认为美联储并不想落后于市场

719
00:22:56,589 --> 00:22:57,240
嗯

720
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,740
落后于市场意味着严重滞后

721
00:23:00,740 --> 00:23:06,669
因为市场正在密切关注最新公布的CPI和PPI数据

722
00:23:06,669 --> 00:23:10,689
人们非常担心我们又回到了通胀模式

723
00:23:10,689 --> 00:23:13,420
类似于2021年

724
00:23:13,420 --> 00:23:13,980
2022年

725
00:23:13,980 --> 00:23:15,380
我不认为会是那样

726
00:23:15,380 --> 00:23:17,519
我不认为会出现另一次熊市

727
00:23:17,519 --> 00:23:19,888
就像2022年那样

728
00:23:19,888 --> 00:23:25,229
我认为股市能承受债券市场加息

729
00:23:25,229 --> 00:23:27,068
目前收益率在4%

730
00:23:27,068 --> 00:23:28,079
6%

731
00:23:28,079 --> 00:23:29,440
处于关键水平

732
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,420
如果继续上升

733
00:23:31,420 --> 00:23:36,269
我认为下一步将停在4.75%左右

734
00:23:36,269 --> 00:23:38,309
我认为不会升至5%

735
00:23:38,309 --> 00:23:41,450
我不认为这些利率会对经济和盈利造成大问题

736
00:23:41,450 --> 00:23:43,940
让经济增长和盈利增长

737
00:23:43,940 --> 00:23:45,920
因此我看好盈利持续良好

738
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:50,880
我认为我们将看到信贷条件收紧

739
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,769
由于通胀问题

740
00:23:52,769 --> 00:23:56,009
但这不会造成严重问题

741
00:23:56,009 --> 00:23:57,650
也不会对估值倍数产生大影响

742
00:23:57,650 --> 00:23:58,289
嗯

743
00:23:58,289 --> 00:23:58,990
嗯

744
00:23:58,990 --> 00:24:03,069
债券与估值倍数并非完全正相关

745
00:24:03,069 --> 00:24:04,759
我认为市场仍然

746
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:05,240
嗯

747
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:06,539
非常关注

748
00:24:06,539 --> 00:24:07,099
嗯

749
00:24:07,099 --> 00:24:13,019
非常关注当前人工智能领域的最新进展

750
00:24:13,339 --> 00:24:14,099
你知道的

751
00:24:14,099 --> 00:24:14,730
呃

752
00:24:14,730 --> 00:24:16,710
我只是要读给你听

753
00:24:16,710 --> 00:24:18,829
我们并不天真到不了解市场动向

754
00:24:18,829 --> 00:24:20,329
就在我们交谈期间

755
00:24:20,329 --> 00:24:20,569
各位

756
00:24:20,569 --> 00:24:21,930
让我们挂起标普指数

757
00:24:21,930 --> 00:24:22,670
如果我们能

758
00:24:22,670 --> 00:24:23,190
呃

759
00:24:23,190 --> 00:24:23,369
请

760
00:24:23,369 --> 00:24:25,069
因为我们需要看到这个

761
00:24:25,069 --> 00:24:25,950
我们可以看到吗

762
00:24:25,950 --> 00:24:26,369
请

763
00:24:26,369 --> 00:24:27,829
日内走势那里

764
00:24:27,829 --> 00:24:28,470
确实如此

765
00:24:28,470 --> 00:24:29,230
嗯

766
00:24:29,230 --> 00:24:30,549
这是事实

767
00:24:30,549 --> 00:24:32,839
总统的社交媒体帖子

768
00:24:32,839 --> 00:24:33,500
呃

769
00:24:33,500 --> 00:24:35,859
有人告诉我卡塔尔埃米尔曾询问过我

770
00:24:35,859 --> 00:24:36,359
呃

771
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,740
沙特王储和阿联酋总统

772
00:24:46,519 --> 00:24:50,039
原定于明天由总统执行

773
00:24:50,039 --> 00:24:53,400
现在正在进行严肃的谈判

774
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,079
我们将继续关注此事

775
00:24:56,079 --> 00:25:02,990
这充分显示市场对此问题极为敏感

776
00:25:02,990 --> 00:25:03,480
没错

777
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:09,279
如果收益率上升、油价上涨且税收政策推进

778
00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:12,279
这个市场可能不会接受这个消息

779
00:25:12,279 --> 00:25:13,259
总之

780
00:25:13,259 --> 00:25:19,420
尤其是在有人认为股市可能回调之际

781
00:25:19,420 --> 00:25:24,039
无论如何，你只需观察它何时启动

782
00:25:24,039 --> 00:25:24,299
没错

783
00:25:24,299 --> 00:25:25,519
是啊

784
00:25:25,519 --> 00:25:29,700
我不介意市场在此处短暂休整

785
00:25:29,700 --> 00:25:31,460
我认为这是好事

786
00:25:31,460 --> 00:25:34,759
我不想看到市场继续单边上扬

787
00:25:34,759 --> 00:25:37,740
由少数股票领涨

788
00:25:39,710 --> 00:25:41,670
由半导体行业引领

789
00:25:41,670 --> 00:25:43,069
我喜欢今天看到的走势

790
00:25:43,069 --> 00:25:43,549
我喜欢这样

791
00:25:43,549 --> 00:25:48,839
资金正从表现优异的科技板块流出，流入软件领域

792
00:25:48,839 --> 00:25:50,579
我认为这是

793
00:25:50,579 --> 00:25:51,660
这是积极进展

794
00:25:51,660 --> 00:25:55,819
显示出市场健康扩散的迹象

795
00:25:55,819 --> 00:25:59,859
我们看到标普500指数

796
00:25:59,859 --> 00:26:00,980
跑赢大盘

797
00:26:00,980 --> 00:26:04,940
超越标普市场权重指数

798
00:26:04,940 --> 00:26:09,279
我认为市场适度扩散是合适的

799
00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:13,160
尤其是因为基本面收益状况确实正在扩展

800
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,269
越来越多的公司

801
00:26:15,349 --> 00:26:20,230
据分析师称在收益方面表现越来越好

802
00:26:20,230 --> 00:26:22,720
因此我认为不会出现大幅回调

803
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,680
不会像三月份那样严重

804
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:30,519
显然当时正值中东爆发战争

805
00:26:30,519 --> 00:26:32,019
在我看来

806
00:26:32,019 --> 00:26:34,838
似乎总统并不想

807
00:26:34,838 --> 00:26:35,519
嗯

808
00:26:35,519 --> 00:26:37,319
开启新一轮

809
00:26:37,319 --> 00:26:38,559
新一轮冲突

810
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:42,819
我们可能维持现状即伊朗港口被封锁

811
00:26:42,819 --> 00:26:44,460
霍尔木兹海峡被封锁

812
00:26:45,660 --> 00:26:51,119
一个意外是油价实际保持在约一百美元的合理水平

813
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:52,640
我知道这听起来有点奇怪

814
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:53,779
但并非一百二十

815
00:26:53,779 --> 00:26:55,759
五十五到两百

816
00:26:55,759 --> 00:26:57,619
我认为部分原因是

817
00:26:57,619 --> 00:27:00,819
幸运的是中国经济表现相当疲软

818
00:27:00,819 --> 00:27:03,240
最新公布的零售销售数据

819
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:03,660
嗯

820
00:27:03,660 --> 00:27:04,460
不久前

821
00:27:04,460 --> 00:27:08,160
非常疲软啊

822
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,519
如果你想了解我有时会收到这样的问题

823
00:27:12,519 --> 00:27:13,140
比如

824
00:27:13,140 --> 00:27:16,240
什么是最令人担忧的

825
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,220
什么是最令人担忧的数据

826
00:27:19,220 --> 00:27:20,480
如果

827
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,299
如果

828
00:27:23,299 --> 00:27:25,619
如果国债收益率飙升

829
00:27:25,619 --> 00:27:26,759
我正在思考

830
00:27:26,759 --> 00:27:27,000
哦

831
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,259
我得处理掉这个

832
00:27:28,259 --> 00:27:30,269
如果国债收益率飙升

833
00:27:30,710 --> 00:27:35,569
什么数据会导致大量资金从股市涌入国债

834
00:27:35,569 --> 00:27:37,450
并涌入国债市场

835
00:27:37,450 --> 00:27:39,509
因此我们关注三十年期

836
00:27:39,509 --> 00:27:40,710
刚跌破五点

837
00:27:40,710 --> 00:27:41,730
目前约两百分

838
00:27:41,730 --> 00:27:44,670
令人震惊的临界点

839
00:27:44,670 --> 00:27:46,929
我个人也会感到恐慌

840
00:27:46,929 --> 00:27:48,409
七个百分点

841
00:27:48,409 --> 00:27:49,729
七个百分点

842
00:27:49,729 --> 00:27:51,549
会非常恐慌

843
00:27:51,549 --> 00:27:56,289
巨额资金从股市撤离涌入国债

844
00:27:56,609 --> 00:27:58,589
我们看看是否会上涨到那个水平

845
00:27:58,589 --> 00:28:01,089
目前三收益已处于高位

846
00:28:01,089 --> 00:28:03,019
接近五点二

847
00:28:03,019 --> 00:28:05,619
七之所以可怕

848
00:28:05,619 --> 00:28:08,900
因为几乎所有懂金融的人都知道

849
00:28:08,900 --> 00:28:14,490
经过训练要思考标普500指数年化收益约为8%

850
00:28:14,490 --> 00:28:14,890
没错

851
00:28:14,890 --> 00:28:15,869
大致正确

852
00:28:15,869 --> 00:28:17,500
就像你学习到

853
00:28:17,500 --> 00:28:18,140
你知道的

854
00:28:18,140 --> 00:28:19,579
一对一金融课程类型

855
00:28:19,579 --> 00:28:20,119
这类内容

856
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:20,359
哦

857
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:21,619
投资标普500指数

858
00:28:21,619 --> 00:28:23,539
年复合收益约8%

859
00:28:23,539 --> 00:28:24,299
在增长率上

860
00:28:24,299 --> 00:28:27,190
所以如果讨论7%

861
00:28:27,190 --> 00:28:27,950
无风险利率

862
00:28:27,950 --> 00:28:30,170
很多人会开始接受这个

863
00:28:30,170 --> 00:28:31,769
然后转向8%以上

864
00:28:31,769 --> 00:28:32,500
天啊

865
00:28:32,500 --> 00:28:34,259
股市前景艰难

866
00:28:34,259 --> 00:28:35,519
如果去那里的话

867
00:28:35,519 --> 00:28:36,740
但这存在大争议

868
00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:38,940
当你攀升到高位时

869
00:28:38,940 --> 00:28:40,680
如果美联储加息

870
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,019
我会认为

871
00:28:42,019 --> 00:28:43,259
我认为可以有力论证

872
00:28:43,259 --> 00:28:48,029
国债实际会下跌

873
00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:49,329
不是上涨

874
00:28:49,329 --> 00:28:51,309
如果美联储加息

875
00:28:51,309 --> 00:28:53,900
因为人们会更担忧

876
00:28:53,900 --> 00:28:55,980
这对经济意味着什么

877
00:28:55,980 --> 00:28:56,740
天啊

878
00:28:56,740 --> 00:28:57,839
美联储开始加息

879
00:28:57,839 --> 00:28:59,150
所以我认为

880
00:28:59,150 --> 00:28:59,369
嗯

881
00:28:59,369 --> 00:29:01,450
国债反而会下跌

882
00:29:01,450 --> 00:29:02,369
令人难以置信

883
00:29:02,369 --> 00:29:02,890
嗯

884
00:29:02,890 --> 00:29:04,529
如果美联储真的加息

885
00:29:04,529 --> 00:29:06,079
这就是我的观点

886
00:29:06,079 --> 00:29:06,559
好的

887
00:29:06,559 --> 00:29:09,480
谈谈华尔街如何管理投资组合

888
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:10,819
如果利率上升

889
00:29:10,819 --> 00:29:15,159
或主要指数今日略承压

890
00:29:15,159 --> 00:29:18,980
标普仅下跌约0.33%

891
00:29:18,980 --> 00:29:21,339
道指回落50点

892
00:29:21,339 --> 00:29:21,819
嗯

893
00:29:21,819 --> 00:29:22,319
再次强调

894
00:29:22,319 --> 00:29:23,759
显然我们关注利率

895
00:29:23,759 --> 00:29:25,059
这是最大焦点

896
00:29:25,059 --> 00:29:27,460
油价今日走低

897
00:29:27,460 --> 00:29:30,470
十年期国债触及4.63高点

898
00:29:30,470 --> 00:29:33,269
这是2025年2月以来新高

899
00:29:33,269 --> 00:29:35,799
所以你看到的是一年多以来我们未曾到访过的地方

900
00:29:35,799 --> 00:29:38,099
但评论听起来似乎发生了变化

901
00:29:38,099 --> 00:29:38,640
我的意思是

902
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,849
至少在利率走势方面有所转变

903
00:29:41,849 --> 00:29:43,529
交易员现在关注美联储

904
00:29:43,529 --> 00:29:44,009
呃

905
00:29:44,009 --> 00:29:44,369
呃

906
00:29:44,369 --> 00:29:46,460
转向加息

907
00:29:46,980 --> 00:29:50,599
12月加息概率达51%

908
00:29:50,599 --> 00:29:52,429
1月60%三月

909
00:29:52,429 --> 00:29:53,068
呃

910
00:29:53,068 --> 00:29:53,909
71%的概率

911
00:29:53,909 --> 00:29:56,880
你的丹尼斯在谈论7月加息

912
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:57,440
迈克

913
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:57,920
威尔逊

914
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:58,339
摩根

915
00:29:58,339 --> 00:30:02,099
斯坦利债券交易量随长端利率上升而增长

916
00:30:02,099 --> 00:30:07,150
我们预计股市将迎来首次实质性回调

917
00:30:07,150 --> 00:30:07,630
呃

918
00:30:07,630 --> 00:30:09,210
自3月市场见底以来

919
00:30:09,210 --> 00:30:09,430
乔

920
00:30:09,430 --> 00:30:12,390
现在轮到你应对升息了

921
00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:15,180
这是最坏的风险因素

922
00:30:15,180 --> 00:30:15,920
所以我认为

923
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:23,199
升息让你处于准备采取行动的有利位置

924
00:30:23,199 --> 00:30:23,939
在二季度

925
00:30:23,939 --> 00:30:26,670
如果考虑头条竞争

926
00:30:26,670 --> 00:30:27,609
在二季度

927
00:30:27,609 --> 00:30:31,599
每日都被AI主导

928
00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:34,359
而我认为我们已到达这个时刻

929
00:30:34,359 --> 00:30:38,250
这是最终可能达到的最激烈程度

930
00:30:38,250 --> 00:30:40,970
以Cerevis的IPO为例

931
00:30:40,970 --> 00:30:42,130
现在面临竞争

932
00:30:42,130 --> 00:30:42,430
斯科特

933
00:30:42,430 --> 00:30:43,609
你面临竞争

934
00:30:43,609 --> 00:30:44,130
因为

935
00:30:44,130 --> 00:30:44,869
正如你提到的

936
00:30:44,869 --> 00:30:47,450
十年期国债收益率达4.60%

937
00:30:47,450 --> 00:30:49,069
对于特朗普政府而言

938
00:30:49,069 --> 00:30:54,410
这是其面临的主要市场经济挑战

939
00:30:54,410 --> 00:30:56,809
甚至超过原油本身

940
00:30:56,809 --> 00:31:01,329
若回溯总统特朗普2025年1月就职

941
00:31:01,329 --> 00:31:03,190
21日

942
00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:04,049
两天后

943
00:31:04,049 --> 00:31:06,170
十年期收益率曾达4.66%

944
00:31:06,170 --> 00:31:11,490
十年期收益率一直表现温和

945
00:31:11,490 --> 00:31:15,130
这已成为头条挑战

946
00:31:15,130 --> 00:31:17,130
这是对特朗普政府的挑战

947
00:31:17,130 --> 00:31:21,049
从战略角度看首要挑战

948
00:31:21,049 --> 00:31:23,089
这是对动量因子的挑战

949
00:31:23,089 --> 00:31:26,789
而动量因子目前是市场的驱动力

950
00:31:26,789 --> 00:31:28,429
我认为这最可能面临风险

951
00:31:28,429 --> 00:31:29,128
我的意思是

952
00:31:29,128 --> 00:31:32,388
如果今天出现这种回调

953
00:31:32,388 --> 00:31:32,909
利率方面

954
00:31:32,909 --> 00:31:35,900
你知道还会继续上涨

955
00:31:35,900 --> 00:31:38,160
我认为很多人会接受这一点

956
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:38,880
呃

957
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:44,069
因为他们相信增长轨迹和AI故事足够坚韧

958
00:31:44,069 --> 00:31:45,490
能够克服这一波回调

959
00:31:45,490 --> 00:31:47,509
瑞银今天提到这一点

960
00:31:47,509 --> 00:31:47,990
是的

961
00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:49,289
我们可能会有短期整理

962
00:31:49,289 --> 00:31:54,759
在连续七周上涨后出现调整并不意外

963
00:31:54,759 --> 00:31:57,819
他们不认为收益率上升会破坏乐观预期

964
00:31:57,819 --> 00:31:59,559
因为增长依然保持韧性

965
00:31:59,559 --> 00:32:03,240
围绕AI故事的乐观情绪如此高涨以至于

966
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:03,640
你知道的

967
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,819
如果市场极度担忧

968
00:32:06,819 --> 00:32:07,519
利率上升

969
00:32:07,519 --> 00:32:09,259
可能不会表现如此

970
00:32:09,259 --> 00:32:10,599
但今天确实如此

971
00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:11,579
乔的观点很合理

972
00:32:12,619 --> 00:32:15,710
增长和科技板块今日稍受拖累

973
00:32:15,710 --> 00:32:16,329
因为

974
00:32:16,329 --> 00:32:17,269
随着利率上升

975
00:32:17,269 --> 00:32:21,789
显然这些是当日不利的持仓

976
00:32:21,789 --> 00:32:22,150
是的

977
00:32:22,150 --> 00:32:24,529
这其实并未显得特别动荡

978
00:32:24,529 --> 00:32:25,890
我认为我们经历过

979
00:32:25,890 --> 00:32:29,990
利率波动显著加剧的阶段

980
00:32:29,990 --> 00:32:31,650
在过去的几年里

981
00:32:31,650 --> 00:32:34,640
如果观察债券市场定价

982
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,480
我们认为长期端已充分定价

983
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,079
这种增长情景

984
00:32:40,079 --> 00:32:42,960
在我们看来这是增长与通胀的结合

985
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,659
我们认为实际处于收益率曲线短期端

986
00:32:45,659 --> 00:32:49,578
你知道我们可能认为这是过度乐观

987
00:32:49,578 --> 00:32:51,250
在伟大故事上

988
00:32:51,250 --> 00:32:55,369
我认为你在谈论破坏性影响，如果这只是增长故事

989
00:32:55,369 --> 00:32:57,430
而我们预期这种集中度

990
00:32:57,430 --> 00:32:59,880
市场狭窄化将持续

991
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:04,799
但经济动能存在更广泛的叙事

992
00:33:04,799 --> 00:33:06,599
制造业重新加速

993
00:33:06,599 --> 00:33:09,440
资本支出在十一个行业中九个领域

994
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,440
本季度业绩表现更强

995
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,799
目前市场从表现看高度集中

996
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:17,980
在表现优异的领域

997
00:33:17,980 --> 00:33:20,019
从AI相关领域

998
00:33:20,019 --> 00:33:24,960
但现实是斯科特，经济增长的基础依然存在

999
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:26,940
我最后要强调的是

1000
00:33:26,940 --> 00:33:31,029
我们的观点是美联储不必在下半年大幅宽松

1001
00:33:31,029 --> 00:33:32,910
因此我们不会将经济持续增长

1002
00:33:32,910 --> 00:33:36,440
寄托在降息政策上

1003
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:37,680
不 我认为讨论方向已改变

1004
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,859
我认为投资者需要调整思维并承认

1005
00:33:39,859 --> 00:33:42,390
我认为你需要理清思路

1006
00:33:42,390 --> 00:33:45,230
我认为投资者需要改变这种思维并承认

1007
00:33:45,230 --> 00:33:46,309
我们不需要降息

1008
00:33:46,309 --> 00:33:47,829
但如果我们必须应对加息

1009
00:33:47,829 --> 00:33:53,150
我觉得美联储政策讨论已发生足够变化

1010
00:33:53,150 --> 00:33:54,730
这才是当前需要辩论的

1011
00:33:54,730 --> 00:33:55,539
换句话说

1012
00:33:55,539 --> 00:33:56,420
埃迪·阿德尼

1013
00:33:56,420 --> 00:33:58,900
他是华尔街最看多的投资者之一

1014
00:33:58,900 --> 00:33:59,420
没错

1015
00:33:59,420 --> 00:34:01,819
他今年的目标价是8250美元

1016
00:34:01,819 --> 00:34:03,759
他今日仍坚持这一目标

1017
00:34:03,759 --> 00:34:05,659
但呼吁7月加息

1018
00:34:05,659 --> 00:34:07,919
这是完全不同的节奏

1019
00:34:07,919 --> 00:34:11,818
即便是华尔街最激进的策略师

1020
00:34:11,818 --> 00:34:12,259
也说确实

1021
00:34:12,259 --> 00:34:14,369
美联储现在可能7月加息

1022
00:34:14,369 --> 00:34:16,269
我不认为市场会相信这一点

1023
00:34:16,269 --> 00:34:19,559
最鹰派的美联储会这么做吗

1024
00:34:19,559 --> 00:34:23,940
白宫可能会发出强烈反对信号

1025
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,500
但我不认为市场会接受这个观点

1026
00:34:30,500 --> 00:34:33,099
不 而我们的观点是他们不应该

1027
00:34:33,099 --> 00:34:34,880
我们在此持不同意见

1028
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,260
我们认为美联储7月不会加息

1029
00:34:37,260 --> 00:34:38,079
我们也不认为

1030
00:34:38,079 --> 00:34:42,688
因为能源价格上涨对核心CPI的传导有限

1031
00:34:42,688 --> 00:34:46,539
我们预计消费支出可能逐步放缓

1032
00:34:46,539 --> 00:34:49,559
因高油价侵蚀了可支配收入

1033
00:34:49,559 --> 00:34:50,639
斯科特

1034
00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:53,480
我们并未看到强劲的薪资增长

1035
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:53,760
我说

1036
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,059
薪资增长正在放缓

1037
00:34:55,059 --> 00:34:56,039
所以

1038
00:34:56,039 --> 00:35:00,019
这说明尚未达到充分就业

1039
00:35:00,019 --> 00:35:02,199
这给了美联储观察时间

1040
00:35:02,199 --> 00:35:03,059
这就是我们的观点

1041
00:35:03,059 --> 00:35:04,360
你如何看待这个情况

1042
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:05,079
我们我们

1043
00:35:05,079 --> 00:35:05,500
你知道的

1044
00:35:05,500 --> 00:35:08,360
上周我们多次创出新高

1045
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:09,639
最终以平淡收场

1046
00:35:09,639 --> 00:35:11,519
利率和油价双双上涨

1047
00:35:11,519 --> 00:35:13,099
市场已准备好迎接变化

1048
00:35:13,099 --> 00:35:13,500
不管怎样

1049
00:35:13,500 --> 00:35:16,400
因为市场变得过于顶部集中且过于狭窄

1050
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,630
只需要一点点担忧

1051
00:35:19,630 --> 00:35:23,489
突然周五又出现合理抛售

1052
00:35:23,489 --> 00:35:25,670
没有重大影响

1053
00:35:25,670 --> 00:35:28,090
现在我们发现利率上升了

1054
00:35:28,090 --> 00:35:29,170
市场并未下跌

1055
00:35:29,170 --> 00:35:31,190
所有科技股显然受到冲击

1056
00:35:31,190 --> 00:35:32,690
纳斯达克比其他指数更差

1057
00:35:32,690 --> 00:35:35,559
但即便如此影响不大

1058
00:35:35,559 --> 00:35:38,019
难道不是吗 听我说

1059
00:35:38,019 --> 00:35:39,000
如果你想了解

1060
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,480
利率继续上升市场还能上涨吗

1061
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,778
没错

1062
00:35:44,219 --> 00:35:47,699
关键在于科技公司盈利情况

1063
00:35:47,699 --> 00:35:48,759
如果你想了解的话

1064
00:35:48,759 --> 00:35:52,289
为什么2022年出现大幅下跌

1065
00:35:52,289 --> 00:35:53,099
你可能会认为

1066
00:35:53,099 --> 00:35:53,300
嗯

1067
00:35:53,300 --> 00:35:53,500
好的

1068
00:35:53,500 --> 00:35:55,199
这是因为通胀失控了

1069
00:35:55,199 --> 00:35:57,820
美联储加息速度最快

1070
00:35:57,820 --> 00:35:59,860
这是现代史上前所未有的

1071
00:35:59,860 --> 00:36:01,179
没错

1072
00:36:01,829 --> 00:36:03,530
这不是最大因素

1073
00:36:03,530 --> 00:36:09,719
最大因素是科技公司盈利崩盘

1074
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,619
到2023年初时

1075
00:36:11,619 --> 00:36:12,800
科技公司盈利

1076
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:17,449
多家科技巨头年同比EPS下降

1077
00:36:18,639 --> 00:36:19,958
这就是核心原因

1078
00:36:19,958 --> 00:36:22,898
如果所有Meta谷歌亚马逊

1079
00:36:22,898 --> 00:36:24,539
这些大科技公司

1080
00:36:24,539 --> 00:36:27,579
未来一年营收增长停滞

1081
00:36:27,579 --> 00:36:28,840
英伟达对吧

1082
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:29,059
这

1083
00:36:29,059 --> 00:36:30,019
我不知道会不会发生

1084
00:36:30,019 --> 00:36:31,440
但假设其他公司

1085
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,860
它们的营收全部停滞

1086
00:36:33,860 --> 00:36:39,150
或报告极慢增长和每股收益停滞

1087
00:36:39,150 --> 00:36:39,670
好的

1088
00:36:39,670 --> 00:36:41,130
我们正前往唐人街

1089
00:36:41,130 --> 00:36:41,849
没错

1090
00:36:41,849 --> 00:36:44,309
只要大科技公司持续表现

1091
00:36:44,309 --> 00:36:45,670
这就是市场主导力量

1092
00:36:45,670 --> 00:36:46,989
这就是市场运行核心

1093
00:36:46,989 --> 00:36:49,070
只要这些公司持续表现

1094
00:36:49,070 --> 00:36:49,389
你

1095
00:36:49,389 --> 00:36:50,480
你没事的

1096
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,820
这比利率高低更重要得多

1097
00:36:54,820 --> 00:36:55,559
利率更低

1098
00:36:55,559 --> 00:36:56,500
或者任何那些东西

1099
00:36:56,500 --> 00:36:56,820
好的

1100
00:36:56,820 --> 00:36:58,289
一切归根结底在于收益

1101
00:36:58,289 --> 00:36:59,409
所以嗯

1102
00:36:59,409 --> 00:36:59,889
你知道的

1103
00:36:59,889 --> 00:37:01,309
这就是2022年发生的情况

1104
00:37:01,309 --> 00:37:03,130
这就是未来可能发生的情况

1105
00:37:03,130 --> 00:37:05,849
所以如果你说市场下跌

1106
00:37:05,849 --> 00:37:08,230
你知道接下来一年下跌30%

1107
00:37:08,230 --> 00:37:09,489
为什么会发生

1108
00:37:09,489 --> 00:37:11,369
美联储加息

1109
00:37:11,369 --> 00:37:12,010
这类事情

1110
00:37:12,010 --> 00:37:13,050
这只是一个

1111
00:37:13,050 --> 00:37:13,949
你知道的

1112
00:37:13,949 --> 00:37:15,329
其中很小的一部分

1113
00:37:15,329 --> 00:37:18,650
很可能会因为突然间Meta、谷歌

1114
00:37:18,650 --> 00:37:19,389
所有这些公司

1115
00:37:19,389 --> 00:37:21,670
它们的营收增长开始停滞

1116
00:37:21,670 --> 00:37:22,489
开始下滑

1117
00:37:22,489 --> 00:37:23,349
比如说

1118
00:37:23,349 --> 00:37:24,010
假设是三十

1119
00:37:24,010 --> 00:37:26,110
假设Meta上季度增长33%

1120
00:37:26,110 --> 00:37:27,369
假设一年后

1121
00:37:27,369 --> 00:37:28,949
它们增长到11%

1122
00:37:28,949 --> 00:37:29,750
对吧

1123
00:37:29,750 --> 00:37:30,110
嗯

1124
00:37:30,110 --> 00:37:30,469
糟糕

1125
00:37:30,469 --> 00:37:32,110
如果这种情况突然发生

1126
00:37:32,110 --> 00:37:33,590
好的

1127
00:37:34,019 --> 00:37:34,980
我们正在崩盘

1128
00:37:34,980 --> 00:37:35,920
就像

1129
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:36,340
你知道的

1130
00:37:36,340 --> 00:37:37,159
大幅下跌

1131
00:37:37,159 --> 00:37:38,719
我们下跌30%

1132
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:39,900
没错

1133
00:37:39,900 --> 00:37:40,820
如果亚马逊

1134
00:37:40,820 --> 00:37:43,219
你知道AWS增长持续加速

1135
00:37:43,219 --> 00:37:45,599
如果亚马逊营收增长

1136
00:37:45,599 --> 00:37:48,179
你知道亚马逊上季度营收增长了多少

1137
00:37:48,179 --> 00:37:49,719
我不记得公司整体是否增长

1138
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,119
14%

1139
00:37:51,119 --> 00:37:53,360
或者它们的增长幅度

1140
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:58,099
我们来看看亚马逊的数据，亚马逊

1141
00:37:58,099 --> 00:38:00,820
今年营收预期增长16%

1142
00:38:00,820 --> 00:38:01,019
是的

1143
00:38:01,019 --> 00:38:01,219
我说

1144
00:38:01,219 --> 00:38:04,619
如果从16%降到6%

1145
00:38:05,139 --> 00:38:06,019
嗯是的

1146
00:38:06,019 --> 00:38:07,599
我们正在直线下跌对吧

1147
00:38:07,599 --> 00:38:08,900
即使这样也令人担忧

1148
00:38:08,900 --> 00:38:11,719
如果明年营收增长率只能达到9%左右

1149
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,230
那其实会很可怕

1150
00:38:13,230 --> 00:38:14,630
亚马逊需要持续增长

1151
00:38:14,630 --> 00:38:15,869
保持两位数强劲增长

1152
00:38:15,869 --> 00:38:17,070
两位数中段水平

1153
00:38:17,070 --> 00:38:18,208
像十几个百分点

1154
00:38:18,208 --> 00:38:19,728
每年两位数增长

1155
00:38:19,728 --> 00:38:20,889
从营收增长来看

1156
00:38:20,889 --> 00:38:22,728
如果突然变成个位数

1157
00:38:22,728 --> 00:38:26,329
亚马逊会随着贷款和市场一起崩溃对吧

1158
00:38:26,329 --> 00:38:28,409
这就是关键所在

1159
00:38:28,409 --> 00:38:32,260
所以你知道这很重要

1160
00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:32,679
我是说

1161
00:38:32,679 --> 00:38:33,300
你知道的

1162
00:38:33,300 --> 00:38:35,179
如果我们回到Meta

1163
00:38:35,179 --> 00:38:37,079
他们报告了惊人的营收增长

1164
00:38:37,079 --> 00:38:39,760
但到2022年底时

1165
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,679
营收增长几乎不存在

1166
00:38:41,679 --> 00:38:42,159
同样情况

1167
00:38:42,159 --> 00:38:43,539
我可以列举所有科技巨头

1168
00:38:43,539 --> 00:38:47,579
从2021年底到2022年底

1169
00:38:47,579 --> 00:38:48,960
营收增长仅差9天

1170
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:49,260
比如

1171
00:38:49,260 --> 00:38:49,980
天啊

1172
00:38:49,980 --> 00:38:51,059
这些公司怎么了

1173
00:38:51,059 --> 00:38:53,869
这需要特别注意

1174
00:38:53,869 --> 00:38:54,230
好的

1175
00:38:54,230 --> 00:38:54,710
各位好

1176
00:38:54,710 --> 00:38:55,829
感谢大家一如既往的参与

1177
00:38:55,829 --> 00:38:56,550
非常感谢你们的到来

1178
00:38:56,550 --> 00:38:57,750
感谢订阅我们的频道

1179
00:38:57,750 --> 00:38:59,059
感谢点赞支持

1180
00:38:59,059 --> 00:38:59,500
再说一次

1181
00:39:02,460 --> 00:39:03,860
如果你想参与这次促销

1182
00:39:03,860 --> 00:39:05,099
点击下方置顶评论

1183
00:39:05,099 --> 00:39:08,018
填写你的姓名和邮箱或手机号

1184
00:39:08,018 --> 00:39:09,099
根据你接收优惠的方式

1185
00:39:09,099 --> 00:39:10,099
我们可以发送短信

1186
00:39:10,099 --> 00:39:10,699
或通过邮件发送

1187
00:39:10,699 --> 00:39:12,690
当限时一天的促销开启时

1188
00:39:12,690 --> 00:39:13,750
将在置顶评论中显示

1189
00:39:13,750 --> 00:39:15,889
我的Patreon黄金会员

1190
00:39:15,889 --> 00:39:17,920
衷心感谢，祝大家有个美好的一天

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