【Couch Investor】6月我买入的4只股票，理由都在这里

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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所以今天的视频里

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一如既往地

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我们将讨论本月关注的股票

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我正在关注六月份的股票

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我们还有评级分析

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财报信息

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在本视频中进行报告回顾

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现在

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市场似乎有些下跌

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你可能会问这合理吗

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就业报告

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就业数据好于预期

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失业率仍维持在4.3%

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这里到底发生了什么呢

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这里到底发生了什么

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好数据不总是利好股市

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目前通胀似乎有所抬头

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基于我们获得的最新数据

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这仍然是当前问题

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如果劳动力市场强劲

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通胀略有上升

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降息可能不会很快到来

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市场担忧加息

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如果他们要提高利率

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当然会对高增长板块造成打击

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通常就是这样

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这也是当前市场的情绪

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这就是为什么

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如果我们查看热力图

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现在可以看到大量红色

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但同样

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就像我昨天认为的

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我们整体出现了大量红色

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尤其是高增长板块

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人工智能芯片半导体

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等等

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那些今年以来大幅上涨的股票

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没错

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因为这些股票表现依然强劲

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如果你看左下角

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这里

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这些就是相关股票

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甚至这里

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顶部股票仍表现良好

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现在

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我们看到的是确实

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市场稍作休整

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现在

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我常说的那句投资格言是逢高卖出

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梅和离开，就像这样

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虽然现在并不总是奏效

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五月伊始

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看起来我们正在看到一些小牛股

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对我来说完全没问题

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完全没问题

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因为毕竟一点

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过去几周我们筹集了一些现金，其次

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你不希望这些股票被过度炒作

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你不希望这些股票被过度买入

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尤其是没有催化剂支撑

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比如新的财报发布

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你说的这些都对，好吧

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看到这些股票，我持有其中一些

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当然这是今年跑赢大盘的原因之一

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但这对我来说没问题

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因为我希望增持这些公司

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但以更低的价格

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在合理估值水平上

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话说回来，像这个股票这样的名字

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对

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我们最近讨论过很多的那只

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Emeta Meta仍在同一区间

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约六百六十二左右

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非常非常便宜

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我认为这是巨大机会

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是的

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我将继续增持这只股票

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因为风险回报现在非常合理

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只是因为我现在在做这个视频

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并不意味着所有人都要买入所有股票

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仅仅因为一两天下跌

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不

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市场正在调整

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可能会再跌一点

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很快会找到支撑位

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对于这些股票我们不必急于行动

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不必急于买入两只股票

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只是因为哦

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出现了一天红盘

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现在是抄底时机

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在最近三十个交易日

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股票大幅上涨

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我不认为这是抄底

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但好吧

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每个人为自己的投资组合做最佳选择

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现在一家公司

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我一直关注的公司

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最近我们讨论过这个

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我认为是上周或近两周前

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我们已经和Shopify以及Axon进行了沟通，现在已经在使用Axon了

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此后股价略有上涨，表现不错

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我不在乎

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目前仍是三十三亿美元公司

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市盈率（TTM）49.4倍

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市销率136倍

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但该公司增长速度非常快

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同时盈利能力不断增强

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你可以讨厌它

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我并非平台的忠实粉丝

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或者说

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也许平台上的用户

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某些群体完全失控

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正如人们所说

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用西班牙语

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但好吧

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如果我们纯粹从商业角度分析

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这确实是一家优质企业

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它绝非普通社交媒体或广告公司

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但从人工智能角度来看

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最近我们参加了分析师会议

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CEO亲自到场

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我们可以参考他的发言

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他提到

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首先

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公司经历了巨大增长

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收入增长

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过去两年年复合增长率70%

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毛利率

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90%

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盈利能力

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目前实现正向现金流

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等等

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但随后他谈到AI悖论

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公司正将其数据定位为预训练基础资源

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包括训练后和语境化应用

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同时确保充分获取贡献价值

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这意味着未来重新谈判授权协议时

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与大型语言模型公司合作

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条款可能调整

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价格可能变化

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市场尚未完全反映这一点

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当然

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这是一家市值333亿美元的公司

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这未来有可能成为一家价值百亿美元的公司吗

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我认为

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如今公司正从单页模型转向个性化内容流体验

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由机器学习驱动

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这一转变旨在降低新用户门槛并提升访问频率

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重点目标是将每周使用一次的用户转化为每日使用用户

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从1500万用户发展为基于大语言模型的体验

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公司已开始在搜索结果中整合商业产品链接

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并计划在搜索体验中引入正式广告

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以抓住高意图用户查询的机会

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当然当用户有高意图查询时

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更容易收取更高费用对吧

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比如我正在查看新款

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不知道什么新耳机或其他产品值不值得

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我有旧版本

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是否应该升级到新版本

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我的意图已经

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可能是要购买新产品

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如果这就是我的意图

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当然

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广告商

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他们清楚这一点愿意支付更多

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因为更有可能转化为实际买家

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近期里程碑是达成1亿日活用户

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以支持这一目标

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公司优先投入机器学习工程

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以提升内容推荐和用户留存

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同时探索视频作为重要未来产品领域

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管理层坚持审慎的财务策略

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目标是实现收入增速是成本的两倍

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在开发Emana能力以获取人才和技术

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将继续利用股票回购作为次要资本配置

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当市场机会出现时

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现在是一个优质企业

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正在以非常快速的速度增长

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确实存在

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当然DCF分析对大家开放

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描述下方有链接

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以及置顶评论中

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免费使用

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已准备就绪

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这里

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元宇宙

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英伟达

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亚马逊

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随便什么

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全部免费

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只需复制表格然后随意调整

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这里的熊市情景是如果一切都不顺利

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如果增长率无法实现

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等等

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等等

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熊市情景82.5美元

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基准情景206美元

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牛市情景

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330美元

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5点

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5个女儿

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代表当前价格的88%

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从当前价格看有5%的上涨空间

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而基准情景代表约16%的上涨空间

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我甚至没有过多强调

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新授权协议能否提升

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我不确定是否能达到百分百

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在我看来仍然很现实

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是的

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有很多增长潜力

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但它是高增长公司

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我仍在密切关注

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快速转向这里最明显的案例

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当然就是Meta

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或许有人会问为什么不只关注Meta

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非常好的观点

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非常好的观点

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但在我看来即使在当前规模

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即使在这个规模

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我只是

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我不知道

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估值对我来说毫无意义

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我们反复讨论过这个问题

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所以我不再重复

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我认为会尽快发生

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市场终将意识到这一点

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哦

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他们实际上可以实现变现

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通过多种AI方式

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我们现在已经开始看到这一点

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通过几款订阅产品和服务

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我认为他们开始行动只是时间问题

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可能在财报中展示

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然后市场会说

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哦其实

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嗯

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现在可能交易在前向市盈率

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十七点七次这样的说法没什么意义

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甚至末尾的1222次也对吧

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是的

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资本支出在增加

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00:09:27,669 --> 00:09:28,200
是的

244
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,799
目前自由现金流大幅下降

245
00:09:31,799 --> 00:09:33,580
但我们现在讨论的是

246
00:09:33,580 --> 00:09:35,360
根据詹森的观点

247
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,500
没有人比Meta更好地使用AI

248
00:09:37,500 --> 00:09:38,379
所以是的

249
00:09:38,379 --> 00:09:39,759
当你观察这家公司

250
00:09:39,759 --> 00:09:41,299
在我看来

251
00:09:41,299 --> 00:09:43,480
这个估值相当现实

252
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,460
你可能会问这如何现实

253
00:09:45,460 --> 00:09:48,759
当基准情景有近50%的上行空间

254
00:09:48,759 --> 00:09:50,799
这就是巨大的分歧点

255
00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:56,279
基准情景代表接近50%的上行空间

256
00:09:56,279 --> 00:09:59,000
乐观情景达到93%的上行空间

257
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,929
这才是真正向正确方向加速的时刻

258
00:10:02,929 --> 00:10:03,570
但确实

259
00:10:03,570 --> 00:10:07,460
我确实觉得Meta存在巨大分歧

260
00:10:07,460 --> 00:10:08,279
我只是

261
00:10:08,279 --> 00:10:10,100
我会继续买入这只股票

262
00:10:10,100 --> 00:10:12,580
尽管股价现在没有反应

263
00:10:12,580 --> 00:10:13,720
这对我没问题

264
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,279
因为最终它会动

265
00:10:15,279 --> 00:10:19,370
而且会以极快的速度上涨

266
00:10:19,370 --> 00:10:19,690
是的

267
00:10:19,690 --> 00:10:20,490
你可能会说

268
00:10:20,490 --> 00:10:21,870
Alphabet在做什么

269
00:10:21,870 --> 00:10:23,109
接近历史新高

270
00:10:23,109 --> 00:10:25,349
我稍后会解释继续

271
00:10:25,349 --> 00:10:26,428
如果你喜欢这类视频

272
00:10:26,428 --> 00:10:27,149
你知道该怎么做

273
00:10:27,149 --> 00:10:27,828
点击所有按钮

274
00:10:27,828 --> 00:10:30,259
我们非常感激并进一步支持

275
00:10:30,259 --> 00:10:33,299
查看描述下方和评论区顶部的链接

276
00:10:33,299 --> 00:10:34,340
现在最佳买入标的

277
00:10:34,340 --> 00:10:35,820
或前往fullcom/斜杠

278
00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:36,179
沙发

279
00:10:36,179 --> 00:10:36,809
投资者

280
00:10:36,809 --> 00:10:37,970
非常感谢

281
00:10:37,970 --> 00:10:39,929
所以谷歌Alphabet

282
00:10:39,929 --> 00:10:40,490
如你所见

283
00:10:40,490 --> 00:10:41,049
这是一个名字

284
00:10:41,049 --> 00:10:43,330
去年也被视为Meta

285
00:10:43,330 --> 00:10:43,789
现在

286
00:10:43,789 --> 00:10:44,970
所有人都在贬低它

287
00:10:44,970 --> 00:10:45,429
等等

288
00:10:45,429 --> 00:10:45,970
猜猜看

289
00:10:45,970 --> 00:10:49,460
过去十二个月涨幅高达百分之百十八

290
00:10:49,460 --> 00:10:52,220
去年价格也非常非常便宜

291
00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:54,578
虽然公司经营良好

292
00:10:54,578 --> 00:10:55,359
好的

293
00:10:55,359 --> 00:10:57,698
这通常是断层出现的时候

294
00:10:57,698 --> 00:11:01,139
而优秀投资者开始抓住机会

295
00:11:01,139 --> 00:11:01,820
现在

296
00:11:01,820 --> 00:11:04,639
它几乎是全球最大的公司

297
00:11:04,639 --> 00:11:05,539
四点四

298
00:11:05,539 --> 00:11:06,659
五万亿美元

299
00:11:06,659 --> 00:11:07,740
市盈率二

300
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:10,090
市盈率八倍接近四一

301
00:11:10,090 --> 00:11:11,009
所以可以说

302
00:11:11,009 --> 00:11:12,649
现在你看

303
00:11:12,649 --> 00:11:13,009
是的

304
00:11:13,009 --> 00:11:17,389
我们实际上离旧高点不远非常接近八点

305
00:11:17,389 --> 00:11:18,049
百分之八

306
00:11:18,049 --> 00:11:18,779
所以你可能会说

307
00:11:18,794 --> 00:11:19,759
好的

308
00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:23,000
为什么为什么看谷歌现在还是这样

309
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:24,250
你已经拥有这个品牌

310
00:11:24,250 --> 00:11:25,610
我来看看

311
00:11:25,610 --> 00:11:26,830
这里的关键是

312
00:11:26,830 --> 00:11:29,090
我现在在观察市场

313
00:11:29,090 --> 00:11:30,509
如果我们即将经历

314
00:11:30,509 --> 00:11:32,210
更大的回调

315
00:11:32,210 --> 00:11:33,519
更深的下跌

316
00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:34,200
那么是的

317
00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,539
我认为谷歌仍会在我买入名单前列

318
00:11:38,539 --> 00:11:39,879
尽管当前价格

319
00:11:39,879 --> 00:11:43,480
已接近基准情景

320
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:48,129
为什么因为我认为谷歌将成为最大

321
00:11:48,129 --> 00:11:52,259
或最大的赢家之一在AI领域

322
00:11:52,259 --> 00:11:58,710
我认为过去几个月和季度的表现实际上表明

323
00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:03,470
其他公司很难与谷歌竞争

324
00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:06,269
假设一年后

325
00:12:06,269 --> 00:12:07,490
一年半后

326
00:12:07,490 --> 00:12:10,318
我们将迎来重大崩盘

327
00:12:10,318 --> 00:12:12,399
也许我不知道这只是推测

328
00:12:12,399 --> 00:12:14,038
但我们将经历重大崩盘

329
00:12:14,038 --> 00:12:15,808
那些亏损公司

330
00:12:15,808 --> 00:12:19,168
缺乏庞大生态系统的公司将会崩溃

331
00:12:19,168 --> 00:12:20,328
甚至可能破产

332
00:12:20,328 --> 00:12:20,948
等等

333
00:12:20,948 --> 00:12:27,039
我几乎可以肯定谷歌不会遭遇同样命运

334
00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:31,950
我知道谷歌可能会重组并变得更强大

335
00:12:31,950 --> 00:12:34,289
谷歌最近筹集了八十一点

336
00:12:34,289 --> 00:12:35,649
八十亿五亿美元

337
00:12:35,649 --> 00:12:38,789
或类似规模仿佛再次上市

338
00:12:38,789 --> 00:12:39,309
没错

339
00:12:39,309 --> 00:12:42,809
实际上它比下周SpaceX的IPO规模还要大

340
00:12:42,809 --> 00:12:45,960
我认为这是在筹集750亿美元

341
00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:47,279
或者说差不多这个数

342
00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:47,600
为什么

343
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,000
为什么在稀释股权呢

344
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,980
大概两三个百分点吧

345
00:12:50,980 --> 00:12:52,620
大致的稀释比例

346
00:12:52,620 --> 00:12:53,059
他们

347
00:12:53,059 --> 00:12:54,019
他们根本不在乎

348
00:12:54,019 --> 00:12:55,940
实际上这是向市场展示

349
00:12:55,940 --> 00:12:57,879
或者可能是其他竞争对手

350
00:12:57,879 --> 00:12:58,419
其实

351
00:12:58,419 --> 00:13:01,539
或许你也应该这么做才对

352
00:13:01,539 --> 00:13:04,080
这能避免承担债务

353
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,059
这意味着他们的现金储备

354
00:13:06,059 --> 00:13:09,840
但公司基本面保持完整依然非常健康

355
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:12,059
为什么不这么做呢

356
00:13:12,059 --> 00:13:15,480
这展示了实力也震慑了竞争对手

357
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:16,759
这就是我们的能力

358
00:13:16,759 --> 00:13:18,580
你可以效仿我们的做法

359
00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:19,599
我们才是最好的

360
00:13:19,599 --> 00:13:20,418
我们实力雄厚

361
00:13:20,418 --> 00:13:22,599
我们极度极度盈利

362
00:13:22,599 --> 00:13:23,599
没错

363
00:13:23,599 --> 00:13:25,259
在整个AI领域

364
00:13:25,259 --> 00:13:32,519
我想持有这些几乎无法被颠覆的强大公司

365
00:13:32,519 --> 00:13:32,980
比如

366
00:13:32,980 --> 00:13:34,519
我现在就说

367
00:13:34,519 --> 00:13:35,240
价格

368
00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:35,519
是的

369
00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:38,279
当前价格接近基准预期

370
00:13:38,279 --> 00:13:41,919
但乐观情景仍有27%的上涨空间

371
00:13:41,919 --> 00:13:42,820
悲观情景

372
00:13:42,820 --> 00:13:43,659
约两

373
00:13:43,659 --> 00:13:45,609
三点几个百分点

374
00:13:45,609 --> 00:13:46,408
所以啊

375
00:13:46,408 --> 00:13:46,769
谷歌

376
00:13:46,769 --> 00:13:48,408
如果真的下跌

377
00:13:48,408 --> 00:13:49,269
可能到350美元

378
00:13:49,269 --> 00:13:50,620
也许只有谁知道

379
00:13:50,620 --> 00:13:53,019
或许会有巨大礼物降临

380
00:13:53,019 --> 00:13:54,919
然后回升至300美元

381
00:13:54,919 --> 00:13:56,100
那当然

382
00:13:56,100 --> 00:13:57,519
我会继续买入

383
00:13:57,519 --> 00:14:01,809
但现阶段接近公允价值我也无妨

384
00:14:01,809 --> 00:14:03,649
基于基准预期

385
00:14:03,649 --> 00:14:07,330
接下来介绍一家被完全遗忘的公司

386
00:14:07,330 --> 00:14:11,288
随着华纳兄弟收购事件尘埃落定

387
00:14:11,288 --> 00:14:12,769
就是Netflix

388
00:14:12,769 --> 00:14:14,639
我清楚这很疯狂

389
00:14:14,639 --> 00:14:14,958
对

390
00:14:14,958 --> 00:14:15,958
Netflix 已经回来了

391
00:14:15,958 --> 00:14:17,568
每股81美元

392
00:14:17,568 --> 00:14:18,989
从估值角度来看

393
00:14:18,989 --> 00:14:23,288
对于我认为不会被颠覆的公司来说非常有吸引力

394
00:14:23,288 --> 00:14:27,340
我认为人工智能将进一步帮助公司变得更强大

395
00:14:27,340 --> 00:14:28,299
增长更快

396
00:14:28,299 --> 00:14:30,139
同时盈利能力也会提升

397
00:14:30,139 --> 00:14:30,519
是的

398
00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:33,600
3420亿美元的公司可不是小公司

399
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:35,340
但如果我们看估值

400
00:14:36,469 --> 00:14:36,908
不

401
00:14:36,908 --> 00:14:39,129
当前估值并不算高

402
00:14:39,129 --> 00:14:40,948
也不是我们见过的最便宜的

403
00:14:40,948 --> 00:14:43,269
绝对不算高估

404
00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:48,328
未来几年仍有望稳健增长

405
00:14:48,328 --> 00:14:49,188
这是一家公司

406
00:14:49,188 --> 00:14:49,448
实际上

407
00:14:49,448 --> 00:14:53,328
我们可以看看未来几年的预期增长速度

408
00:14:53,328 --> 00:14:58,639
营收预计今年增长约13%

409
00:14:58,639 --> 00:14:59,980
13.7%

410
00:14:59,980 --> 00:15:02,279
然后11.6%和10.2%

411
00:15:02,279 --> 00:15:04,779
我认为他们能跑得更快

412
00:15:04,779 --> 00:15:05,620
从营收来看

413
00:15:05,620 --> 00:15:07,509
如果看自由现金流

414
00:15:07,509 --> 00:15:10,330
本财年自由现金流预计增长3%

415
00:15:10,330 --> 00:15:11,649
9.1%

416
00:15:11,649 --> 00:15:13,230
然后8.2%

417
00:15:13,230 --> 00:15:15,629
但随后会逐渐回归常态

418
00:15:15,629 --> 00:15:19,049
2028财年可能接近19%

419
00:15:19,049 --> 00:15:22,480
现在Netflix 已被市场遗忘

420
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,379
仅仅因为不自建数据中心

421
00:15:24,379 --> 00:15:28,009
仅仅因为没有芯片、内存或AI技术

422
00:15:28,009 --> 00:15:28,549
比如说

423
00:15:28,549 --> 00:15:30,509
尽管我确信他们在使用AI

424
00:15:30,509 --> 00:15:31,809
这是一个优质标的

425
00:15:31,809 --> 00:15:33,350
这是一家实力强劲的公司

426
00:15:33,350 --> 00:15:34,690
我认为他们会变得更强大

427
00:15:34,690 --> 00:15:37,110
未来盈利能力仍将提升

428
00:15:37,110 --> 00:15:39,990
目前只是一个被遗忘的名字

429
00:15:39,990 --> 00:15:40,850
在我看来

430
00:15:40,850 --> 00:15:43,599
这其实很不错

431
00:15:43,599 --> 00:15:44,278
总之

432
00:15:44,278 --> 00:15:46,198
我还没建仓Netflix

433
00:15:46,198 --> 00:15:49,448
看到股价回到接近80美元

434
00:15:49,448 --> 00:15:51,389
对我来说是意外之喜

435
00:15:51,389 --> 00:15:54,460
我认为不会从这里涨5倍什么的

436
00:15:54,460 --> 00:15:58,120
但未来几年肯定跑赢市场

437
00:15:58,120 --> 00:15:58,679
是的

438
00:15:58,679 --> 00:16:03,349
我现在开始关注被市场遗忘的公司

439
00:16:03,349 --> 00:16:05,048
它们可能与

440
00:16:05,048 --> 00:16:05,349
人工智能

441
00:16:05,349 --> 00:16:06,208
半导体

442
00:16:06,208 --> 00:16:07,249
数据中心

443
00:16:07,249 --> 00:16:08,679
这也没关系

444
00:16:08,679 --> 00:16:10,879
尽管我之前说过

445
00:16:10,879 --> 00:16:14,139
我认为整个人工智能故事还会继续

446
00:16:14,139 --> 00:16:14,919
是的

447
00:16:14,919 --> 00:16:15,799
我们确实拥有

448
00:16:15,799 --> 00:16:17,700
当然还有巨额ipo

449
00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:19,740
SpaceX和Tropic

450
00:16:19,740 --> 00:16:20,960
最终开放

451
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:21,779
人工智能领域

452
00:16:21,779 --> 00:16:25,230
它们可能会将所有注意力从其他公司身上转移

453
00:16:25,230 --> 00:16:29,609
这对Netflix来说现在可能有很多机会

454
00:16:29,609 --> 00:16:32,328
我其实没有做DCF分析

455
00:16:32,328 --> 00:16:36,679
接下来一周左右我来完成

456
00:16:36,679 --> 00:16:38,000
同样适用于rubric

457
00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,120
稍后我会再讨论rubric

458
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:41,539
猜猜看

459
00:16:41,539 --> 00:16:45,879
Sofi股价已回升至每股16美元附近

460
00:16:45,879 --> 00:16:47,960
我收到一条评论说

461
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:55,158
如果我在股价18美元左右买入Sofi是否合适

462
00:16:55,158 --> 00:16:57,798
我不太明白这个问题

463
00:16:57,798 --> 00:16:58,558
但猜猜看

464
00:16:58,558 --> 00:17:00,970
如果你想在20美元以上买入Sofi

465
00:17:00,970 --> 00:17:05,390
过去12个月你可以在17美元以下回购

466
00:17:05,390 --> 00:17:06,970
目前仍上涨18.3%

467
00:17:06,970 --> 00:17:07,569
但当然至今

468
00:17:07,569 --> 00:17:08,859
完全下跌41.1%

469
00:17:08,859 --> 00:17:11,598
我不会花太多时间在这上面

470
00:17:11,598 --> 00:17:13,519
我认为这家公司严重被低估

471
00:17:13,519 --> 00:17:16,598
风险回报比可能是最好的之一

472
00:17:16,598 --> 00:17:19,980
如果看保守情景只有4.3%的下跌空间

473
00:17:19,980 --> 00:17:21,900
基准情景55.9%的上涨空间

474
00:17:21,900 --> 00:17:22,980
3%的下行风险

475
00:17:22,980 --> 00:17:25,690
基准情景55.9%的上涨空间

476
00:17:25,690 --> 00:17:27,450
乐观情景125.5%

477
00:17:27,450 --> 00:17:27,990
5%的上涨空间

478
00:17:27,990 --> 00:17:29,049
虽然在乐观情景下

479
00:17:29,049 --> 00:17:30,809
利率上升可能不会发生

480
00:17:30,809 --> 00:17:36,089
但基准情景依然非常现实

481
00:17:36,089 --> 00:17:39,549
目标价25美元/股

482
00:17:39,549 --> 00:17:41,569
所以是的

483
00:17:41,569 --> 00:17:43,980
我知道大家不喜欢

484
00:17:43,980 --> 00:17:46,259
因为毕竟

485
00:17:46,259 --> 00:17:49,970
你每月都在这些价位买入股份

486
00:17:49,970 --> 00:17:51,450
且股价不动

487
00:17:51,450 --> 00:17:52,670
机会成本

488
00:17:52,670 --> 00:17:53,650
等等

489
00:17:53,650 --> 00:17:54,490
好的

490
00:17:54,490 --> 00:17:55,759
有道理

491
00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:56,839
如果你不想购买

492
00:17:56,839 --> 00:17:58,059
不要购买因为它确实如此

493
00:17:58,059 --> 00:17:59,279
这又和之前无关

494
00:17:59,279 --> 00:18:00,180
数据中心相关

495
00:18:00,180 --> 00:18:01,039
AI内存

496
00:18:01,039 --> 00:18:01,759
等等

497
00:18:01,759 --> 00:18:04,069
而趋势明显偏向这些公司

498
00:18:04,069 --> 00:18:08,829
而不是像沙发或众多其他金融科技公司

499
00:18:09,829 --> 00:18:15,119
但最终最终会转向评估标准

500
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:18,099
Rubric在昨日收盘后发布报告

501
00:18:18,099 --> 00:18:19,339
你可能会说

502
00:18:19,339 --> 00:18:19,779
哦

503
00:18:19,779 --> 00:18:20,900
可能是个糟糕的季度

504
00:18:20,900 --> 00:18:21,220
没错

505
00:18:21,220 --> 00:18:23,138
因为股价下跌了5%

506
00:18:23,138 --> 00:18:24,759
其实不然

507
00:18:24,759 --> 00:18:26,459
这实际上是个优秀季度

508
00:18:26,459 --> 00:18:27,798
全面超出预期

509
00:18:27,798 --> 00:18:29,190
指引被上调

510
00:18:29,190 --> 00:18:31,289
所以股价为何下跌5%

511
00:18:31,289 --> 00:18:32,970
正如你所见

512
00:18:32,970 --> 00:18:36,369
所有增长型公司今日均受挫

513
00:18:36,369 --> 00:18:36,890
此外

514
00:18:36,890 --> 00:18:38,509
正如你看到的

515
00:18:38,509 --> 00:18:40,440
自四月开始

516
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,539
股价上涨近90%

517
00:18:43,539 --> 00:18:44,059
而现在

518
00:18:44,059 --> 00:18:44,279
是的

519
00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:48,599
我们正经历约7%的小幅回调

520
00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:50,470
进入报告分析

521
00:18:50,470 --> 00:18:54,390
股价可能已充分消化了业绩

522
00:18:54,390 --> 00:18:56,269
甚至可能还有余波

523
00:18:56,269 --> 00:18:57,289
但在我看来

524
00:18:57,289 --> 00:19:00,789
若再次回到70美元或更低

525
00:19:00,789 --> 00:19:03,440
这对我来说仍是买入机会

526
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,599
该公司估值约150亿美元

527
00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:07,740
从估值角度看

528
00:19:07,740 --> 00:19:08,650
众所周知

529
00:19:08,650 --> 00:19:12,690
网络安全类公司并非低价股

530
00:19:12,690 --> 00:19:15,869
但这家公司增长迅猛

531
00:19:15,869 --> 00:19:18,009
营收和利润均大幅增长

532
00:19:18,009 --> 00:19:20,759
尽管利润尚未显著

533
00:19:20,759 --> 00:19:21,799
目前尚未实现

534
00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:22,299
现金流

535
00:19:22,299 --> 00:19:22,599
是的

536
00:19:22,599 --> 00:19:26,640
这让我想到财报显示收入同比增长3.9%

537
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:33,519
超出预期并上调指引5.8%，实现43%收入增长

538
00:19:33,519 --> 00:19:34,960
X材料权利正确

539
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:39,119
今年与之前的评分标准相比发生了巨大变化

540
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:45,029
与之前的报告风格相比，同比增长预期为36.5%

541
00:19:45,029 --> 00:19:48,779
净营收留存率达120%

542
00:19:48,779 --> 00:19:54,940
至于ARR两项净新增ARR达到80

543
00:19:54,940 --> 00:19:59,859
订阅业务占比从去年同期的82%提升至9%

544
00:19:59,859 --> 00:20:04,589
订阅ARR超出预期1.1%

545
00:20:04,589 --> 00:20:07,930
毛利率超出预期190个基点

546
00:20:07,930 --> 00:20:12,970
自由现金流重复五七%每股收益超预期19美分

547
00:20:12,970 --> 00:20:14,029
由此可见

548
00:20:14,029 --> 00:20:17,579
本季度整体表现非常出色

549
00:20:17,579 --> 00:20:20,980
毛利率提升归因于营收表现超出预期

550
00:20:20,980 --> 00:20:25,179
云托管成本优化和客户支持成本节约

551
00:20:25,179 --> 00:20:29,380
自由现金流提升源于营收增长和固定成本杠杆效应

552
00:20:29,380 --> 00:20:35,199
订阅业务贡献毛利率超出预期170个基点

553
00:20:35,199 --> 00:20:36,919
关于资本状况

554
00:20:36,919 --> 00:20:38,519
关于全年展望

555
00:20:38,519 --> 00:20:40,739
这里基本都是亮点

556
00:20:40,739 --> 00:20:43,199
各项指标均表现优异

557
00:20:43,199 --> 00:20:45,719
二季度指引同样全面领先

558
00:20:45,719 --> 00:20:47,839
这真是非常出色的季度

559
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:51,299
我记得管理层曾表示

560
00:20:51,299 --> 00:20:53,019
随着公司成熟为上市公司

561
00:20:53,019 --> 00:20:57,900
不必期待每次都能大幅超预期

562
00:20:57,900 --> 00:21:02,220
我喜欢看到公司持续超额完成目标

563
00:21:02,220 --> 00:21:03,640
正在发生重大变化

564
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,279
过去一年的强劲动力已转为阻力

565
00:21:07,279 --> 00:21:13,369
这是因为客户从许可维护转向年度云订阅

566
00:21:13,369 --> 00:21:16,170
授权收入成为营收增长的重要驱动力

567
00:21:16,170 --> 00:21:17,679
过去一年的主要助力

568
00:21:17,679 --> 00:21:23,289
这一助力预计将在新财年转为阻力

569
00:21:23,289 --> 00:21:27,410
关于Rubrik的代理云产品

570
00:21:27,410 --> 00:21:31,490
目前处于市场推广的第一阶段

571
00:21:31,490 --> 00:21:33,150
Rubrik的产品市场契合度

572
00:21:33,150 --> 00:21:33,930
团队正在测试

573
00:21:33,930 --> 00:21:35,190
信息传递和结构设计

574
00:21:35,190 --> 00:21:38,909
在全面推广前需完善

575
00:21:38,909 --> 00:21:44,088
但Rubrik代理云本季度已赢得一家大型金融机构

576
00:21:44,088 --> 00:21:45,828
关于身份韧性

577
00:21:45,828 --> 00:21:50,000
实现了38%的环比增长

578
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,960
身份ARR达5000万美元

579
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,920
产品推出约一年后

580
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,720
关于核心平台Rubrik安全云

581
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,069
平台优势与数据增长环境密切相关

582
00:22:02,069 --> 00:22:06,160
Rubrik可处理任何环境中的各类数据

583
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,200
本季度公司又完成两项重大竞争替代

584
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:11,859
关于新产品覆盖

585
00:22:11,859 --> 00:22:17,470
备份功能加入Google Workspace，产品恢复支持微软

586
00:22:17,470 --> 00:22:18,890
365客户

587
00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:22,430
数据韧性在Azure和GitHub首发

588
00:22:22,430 --> 00:22:24,690
DevOps平台也提及了

589
00:22:24,690 --> 00:22:26,009
以及热带金属

590
00:22:26,009 --> 00:22:28,170
他们说自从宣布后

591
00:22:28,170 --> 00:22:32,670
客户对钌制品的需求有所增加

592
00:22:32,670 --> 00:22:34,150
产品和服务

593
00:22:34,150 --> 00:22:36,150
总的来说我们得到了什么

594
00:22:36,150 --> 00:22:39,079
这家公司交出了一份优异的季度成绩

595
00:22:39,079 --> 00:22:40,640
这家公司交出了一份优异的季度成绩

596
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:41,700
非常良好的指引

597
00:22:41,700 --> 00:22:43,059
也有积极的评论

598
00:22:43,059 --> 00:22:43,839
是的，再次

599
00:22:43,839 --> 00:22:44,460
这并不便宜

600
00:22:44,460 --> 00:22:46,359
目前交易价约50倍市盈率

601
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,180
今年更新的自由现金流指引

602
00:22:49,180 --> 00:22:49,680
当然

603
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,500
分析师将基于本季度数据进行大量修正

604
00:22:53,500 --> 00:22:56,400
我们获得的修正后展望

605
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,740
如果你打算买入网络安全概念股

606
00:22:58,740 --> 00:23:00,039
不幸的是

607
00:23:00,279 --> 00:23:02,319
你可能找不到低价标的

608
00:23:02,319 --> 00:23:06,660
但一定能找到快速增长的标的

609
00:23:06,660 --> 00:23:07,019
是的

610
00:23:07,019 --> 00:23:09,160
许多公司正在产生自由现金流

611
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,990
但从运营利润率来看

612
00:23:11,990 --> 00:23:13,589
仍为负值

613
00:23:13,589 --> 00:23:16,990
但钌行业无疑在向正确方向发展

614
00:23:16,990 --> 00:23:18,880
速度远超预期

615
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,279
总的来说就是这样

616
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:20,519
对我来说

617
00:23:20,519 --> 00:23:21,200
在今天的视频中

618
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:21,599
当然

619
00:23:21,599 --> 00:23:23,500
我仍在关注新持仓

620
00:23:23,500 --> 00:23:24,200
例如

621
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,390
我也在关注Uber

622
00:23:26,390 --> 00:23:29,269
这些名称同样属于高速成长股

623
00:23:29,269 --> 00:23:32,339
盈利且估值合理

624
00:23:32,339 --> 00:23:36,589
相比市场上的热门股

625
00:23:36,589 --> 00:23:39,089
六月份你在关注哪些标的

626
00:23:39,089 --> 00:23:40,710
请在下方评论区告诉我

627
00:23:40,710 --> 00:23:42,390
我们下次再见

628
00:23:42,390 --> 00:23:43,220
再见

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