【Financial Education】我刚买入$73000的8只美股

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今天来看AMD股票再次上涨

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AMD只有一个目标

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只有一个目标

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唯一能让所有人致富的方法

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呃

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今天视频开头我们将简要讨论AMD

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我会告诉你我的观点和看法

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关于这只股票接下来的走势，史蒂夫·艾森曼（《大空头》原型）

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他几小时前去了CBC

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发表了对市场的看法

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毕竟他是做空大鳄

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大家总盼着他看空市场

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嗯

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我们来听听他是否看空市场

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然后进入巨头板块

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当然亚马逊

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谷歌微软Meta

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所有大公司

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均已公布财报

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我想听听这些华尔街人士的意见

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分享一些我的观点和见解

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之后我今天花了七万三千美元买股票

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并解释为何选择这些股票，感谢大家一如既往的支持

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有一点

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只有一件事需要你们

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我最近很忙

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兄弟

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一直在听各种电话会议

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左左右右都是亮眼财报

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真是忙得不可开交

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只求你们做一件事

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点个赞

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点击那个点赞图标

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这对我来说意义重大

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另外请务必订阅频道

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如果还没订阅的话

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这样未来能看到更多视频，下方评论区留个置顶

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如果你想成为更严肃的投资者

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想学习我十七年来的全部经验

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获取所有课程资料

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私密Discord群组

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见证我的操作

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每周都在做的交易

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千倍学堂网站访问权限

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是的

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所有优质资源

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下方评论区已置顶

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你可以申请加入我们

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或许能顺利通过

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也许如果你适合我们

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也许这个周末或下周我们就能看到

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好的

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好的

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各位

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AMD

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AMD接下来会去哪里

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我的观点和看法以及类似这些内容

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好的

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关于AMD的事

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下一个价格水平是多少

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我告诉过你们这会非常重要

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当前价格在365到380区间

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原因在于这是最高分析师预测价位

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如果我们突破最高分析师预测

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就会深入到四字价位

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这会很快发生

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好的

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现在我们处于

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我称之为徘徊阶段

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没错

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但确实

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如果我们进入那个区间

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一旦接近380价位

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就超越所有分析师最高目标

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然后深入四字价位

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因为那时所有人都会离场

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所有人

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几乎所有人都已离场

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几乎所有华尔街看多分析师都有价格目标

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都低于当前AMD股价

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这让他们显得看空AMD

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AMD股票将需要大量上调评级

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接下来

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我估计一到两个月

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具体来说

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在财报期后

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财报期后

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所有看多分析师必须提高目标价

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并将目标调至四字价位

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因为股价不可能停留在350或附近

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暂且不提

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如果涨至365到380

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然后设定325目标价

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或300目标价

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或335目标价

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这显然不行

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那就不再看多

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需要转为持有者

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必须调整至更高价位

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如果你想继续搭乘看涨的AMD列车

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如果你是华尔街分析师或机构

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你需要上调你的数据

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因此这是下一个关键水平

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我们突破365.38价位

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我们正在深入四字价位

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和我之前告诉你们的一样

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我们突破290价位

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我们将深入三字价位

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正如我们确实突破了290价位

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现在我们已深入三字价位

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看看今天的股价

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今天一直在

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你知道在34到35之间波动

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对吧

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真是太棒了

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我确实

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我现在大概有

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你知道账面上赚了

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至少在一到两百万美元之间

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在AMD股票中

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在我的不同投资组合里

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所以你知道这变得有趣了

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我们的数字在不断增长

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在不同投资组合中

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现在对我们来说是个好成绩

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现在

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你知道已经进入七位数

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这真是美好时光

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这就是投资的乐趣所在

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随着年份的积累

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就像

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最初的大胜可能只有千美元

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接着可能是一万美元

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然后可能是十万美元

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接着你开始谈论百万美元

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大胜

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加上啊

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你知道过去十七年我们走了多远

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从在爱因斯坦面包店洗碗到在沃尔格林工作

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我们走了很远

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对吧而且

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你知道要持续努力

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保持乐趣

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继续投入工作

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而且

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保持纪律

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这才是关键

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男人我看到很多人在这游戏里失去纪律

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这就是他们退步的原因

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以一种大的方式

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我们不是要倒退

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我们正努力向前推进

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顺便说一句，最后一件事让我来谈谈

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在我们开始反应这些视频之前

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在我分享今天买入的所有股票之前

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在那里我确实有巨大的机会

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关于AMD我再说最后一点

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如果你在疑惑

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AMD今天是否仍是买入选择

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答案是如果你有长期视角

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是的

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AMD今天仍然值得买入

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我认为AMD正处于轨道上

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未来几年可能成为500到1000美元的股票

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在未来几年内

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有很多人相信它会在更短时间内达到2000美元

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甚至到2030年

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好的

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我不那么看涨

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但事实上我的基准情况

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该股票可能真的上涨到2000美元

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没错

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但我的基准情况是

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这只有大约10%的概率

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我的基本预期更接近

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股票将上涨至1000美元

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好的

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这些股票在300美元左右

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它是否仍是买入选择

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是的

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它仍然是买入选择

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我是否还在大量买入AMD？不

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我去年已大量买入AMD

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大概在2024年底

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没错

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我认为我从2024年底开始买入

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然后去年继续加仓

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我对AMD很满意

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我持有大量AMD股票

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想想看

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我在不同投资组合中获利100万到200万美元

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这是所有投资组合的总利润

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现在可以开始计算

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你认为我在不同组合中持有多少股

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数量很多

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所以我没问题

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我对AMD很满意

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但最终它仍然是值得买入的

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这就是需要记住的

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好的

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我们来反应一些视频

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然后我们将进入播客的购买推荐

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曾是新汉堡公司的高级投资组合经理

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当然，电影《大空头》中的角色

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你喜欢被这样描述吗

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我不知道

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我觉得这会刻在我墓碑上

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好吧

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帮我们理解这件事

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我们都在试图理解宇宙一端的石油

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我的墓碑看起来会很复杂

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煎饼翻转AI像曲棍球杆

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也许正确

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然后我们刚学到的一些数据

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呃

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更近期

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这使得经济出现二元分化

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以及如何理解这种现象

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我认为最有趣的是

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回溯到三月

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当市场下跌时

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有很多我深敬仰的人在讨论

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政策转变

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抛售指数基金

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买入石油

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买入黄金

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抛售科技股

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持续了数周

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到了三月底

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我认为市场下跌了4%

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纳斯达克下跌7%

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现在市场上涨4-5%, 纳斯达克涨7%

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没错，领涨的是科技

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同样的领涨股

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科技和银行

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能源股下跌

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黄金毫无动静

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必需消费品在上涨

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这真实吗

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还是只是叙事

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我认为

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看

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去年经济的故事是消费支出

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信用质量良好

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K型分化经济

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今年的故事仍是消费支出

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00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:45,279
信用质量良好

248
00:07:45,279 --> 00:07:45,939
K型分化经济

249
00:07:45,939 --> 00:07:48,220
我们实际上回到了去年的状态

250
00:07:48,220 --> 00:07:50,040
完全相同的叙事毫无变化

251
00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,370
仿佛中间什么都没发生过

252
00:07:52,370 --> 00:07:58,540
因此你应该坚持持有我主要持有的资产

253
00:07:58,540 --> 00:07:59,910
也就是科技股

254
00:07:59,910 --> 00:08:01,350
一些金融股

255
00:08:01,350 --> 00:08:03,069
我根本不持有必需消费品

256
00:08:03,069 --> 00:08:04,709
我也很少持有能源股

257
00:08:04,709 --> 00:08:08,288
你知道我持有的还是过去一直持有的东西

258
00:08:08,408 --> 00:08:09,810
你喜欢金融股吗

259
00:08:09,810 --> 00:08:10,810
我喜欢，确实喜欢

260
00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:13,509
这就是市场中人们常犯的重大错误

261
00:08:13,509 --> 00:08:15,050
我不想看到你们犯这个错误

262
00:08:15,050 --> 00:08:16,410
因为这会让你损失一大笔钱

263
00:08:16,410 --> 00:08:18,720
而且你会错过巨大的收益

264
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:19,740
好了，听我说

265
00:08:19,740 --> 00:08:21,639
这就是游戏的玩法

266
00:08:22,310 --> 00:08:24,050
你需要专注于

267
00:08:24,050 --> 00:08:26,750
不要关注股市短期的叙事

268
00:08:26,750 --> 00:08:31,899
要专注于高质量公司

269
00:08:31,899 --> 00:08:36,409
可以长期持有数年的优质投资

270
00:08:36,610 --> 00:08:39,909
因为短期叙事在股市中会不断变化

271
00:08:39,909 --> 00:08:40,929
比如这可能会改变

272
00:08:40,929 --> 00:08:42,190
这一切可能突然改变

273
00:08:42,190 --> 00:08:43,730
比如说一两年后

274
00:08:43,730 --> 00:08:45,399
从现在起可能会出现大幅回调

275
00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:46,399
在AI支出方面

276
00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:48,100
然后叙事就会改变

277
00:08:48,100 --> 00:08:49,440
尽管现在仍是这样的叙事

278
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,740
就像这些内容随时可能转变

279
00:08:51,740 --> 00:08:53,679
假设我们进入一个市场环境

280
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:54,440
你知道的

281
00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,379
也许富人不再那么风光

282
00:08:56,379 --> 00:08:58,000
但富人一直都很成功啊

283
00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,440
假设你被视作表现不佳

284
00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,000
但中产阶级开始崛起

285
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:03,340
比如

286
00:09:03,340 --> 00:09:05,259
这里有个叙事转变

287
00:09:05,259 --> 00:09:06,259
它们会频繁切换

288
00:09:06,259 --> 00:09:07,220
随时可能变化

289
00:09:07,220 --> 00:09:09,779
不要追逐叙事

290
00:09:09,779 --> 00:09:10,799
追逐趋势

291
00:09:10,799 --> 00:09:12,740
专注于买入优质公司

292
00:09:12,740 --> 00:09:15,419
具有吸引人的估值并保持简单

293
00:09:15,419 --> 00:09:16,419
保持简单

294
00:09:16,419 --> 00:09:16,799
好的

295
00:09:16,799 --> 00:09:20,928
这就是你需要做的，稳住别急

296
00:09:20,928 --> 00:09:24,578
我妻子在催我考虑替代方案

297
00:09:24,578 --> 00:09:26,500
但我确实看好传统银行

298
00:09:26,500 --> 00:09:28,200
你喜欢科技股意味着

299
00:09:30,879 --> 00:09:32,240
我喜欢

300
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,950
我最喜欢大部分杂志

301
00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:37,539
然后我喜欢工业方面

302
00:09:37,539 --> 00:09:40,000
与电力相关的公司

303
00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,360
比如格瑞特昆塔

304
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,059
该公司今早报道数量惊人

305
00:09:45,318 --> 00:09:47,078
那种被吞噬了

306
00:09:47,078 --> 00:09:50,739
但我们本以为这只大黄蜂能连接

307
00:09:50,739 --> 00:09:51,038
我是说

308
00:09:51,038 --> 00:09:52,818
我不认为人们之前自己说过

309
00:09:52,818 --> 00:09:58,099
卡特彼勒基本上是AI公司或AI驱动公司

310
00:09:58,099 --> 00:10:04,019
部分原因是它为建造这些数据中心提供物资

311
00:10:04,019 --> 00:10:05,840
你喜欢标普吗

312
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:06,740
我喜欢

313
00:10:06,740 --> 00:10:07,519
我不喜欢

314
00:10:07,519 --> 00:10:09,100
我现在对市场没有问题

315
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:09,600
太神奇了

316
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:10,929
我真的不喜欢你知道的

317
00:10:10,929 --> 00:10:15,409
我收到一位观众的邮件我要回复

318
00:10:15,409 --> 00:10:17,330
嗯明天在我的说唱节目中

319
00:10:17,330 --> 00:10:19,679
但观众指出

320
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,759
按传统指标来看

321
00:10:21,759 --> 00:10:22,879
他列举了几项

322
00:10:22,879 --> 00:10:24,269
市场估值过高

323
00:10:24,269 --> 00:10:26,190
我认为这是合理的

324
00:10:26,190 --> 00:10:31,179
但人们没考虑到十年前

325
00:10:31,179 --> 00:10:36,690
信息技术占标普18%到20%

326
00:10:36,690 --> 00:10:39,129
现在已占标普35%

327
00:10:39,129 --> 00:10:41,269
再加上谷歌、Meta

328
00:10:41,269 --> 00:10:42,929
这些并非严格信息技术

329
00:10:42,929 --> 00:10:45,059
实际占标普50%

330
00:10:45,059 --> 00:10:45,419
所以

331
00:10:45,419 --> 00:10:46,720
市场更昂贵

332
00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,639
因科技在标普占比大幅提升

333
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:51,470
所以

334
00:10:51,470 --> 00:10:52,710
我不认同这个论点

335
00:10:52,710 --> 00:10:53,230
所以

336
00:10:53,230 --> 00:10:55,070
科技公司估值更高

337
00:10:55,070 --> 00:10:55,529
通常如此

338
00:10:55,529 --> 00:10:57,570
这观点合理

339
00:10:57,570 --> 00:10:58,750
这是个好观点

340
00:10:58,750 --> 00:10:59,190
也对

341
00:10:59,190 --> 00:10:59,940
没错

342
00:10:59,940 --> 00:11:01,419
这些公司只是

343
00:11:01,419 --> 00:11:05,789
远比传统企业增长更快

344
00:11:05,789 --> 00:11:06,830
想想这些公司

345
00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:09,259
过去曾主导股市

346
00:11:09,259 --> 00:11:11,059
是通用电气

347
00:11:11,059 --> 00:11:12,870
是波音

348
00:11:12,870 --> 00:11:16,090
甚至可能包括洛克希德·马丁

349
00:11:16,090 --> 00:11:17,190
可口可乐

350
00:11:17,190 --> 00:11:17,830
百事可乐

351
00:11:17,830 --> 00:11:18,830
强生公司

352
00:11:18,830 --> 00:11:20,419
宝洁集团没错

353
00:11:20,419 --> 00:11:23,460
这些公司就像让人昏昏欲睡

354
00:11:23,460 --> 00:11:25,099
增长缓慢

355
00:11:25,099 --> 00:11:26,599
就是那些沉闷的公司没错

356
00:11:26,599 --> 00:11:30,929
而现在引领市场的公司都是增长王者

357
00:11:30,929 --> 00:11:32,610
看看英伟达的增长率

358
00:11:32,610 --> 00:11:34,950
他们下一季度营收会增长多少

359
00:11:34,950 --> 00:11:36,919
百分之七十左右

360
00:11:36,919 --> 00:11:37,700
荒谬的数字

361
00:11:37,700 --> 00:11:38,899
没有宝洁

362
00:11:38,899 --> 00:11:39,899
这不是可口可乐

363
00:11:39,899 --> 00:11:41,460
这不是百事可乐没错

364
00:11:41,460 --> 00:11:43,279
也没有强生公司

365
00:11:43,279 --> 00:11:43,919
你知道的

366
00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:45,200
看看Meta公司

367
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,200
上季度营收仅增长3.3%

368
00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:52,919
这些数字就像传统老牌公司

369
00:11:52,919 --> 00:11:54,779
他们连想都不敢想

370
00:11:54,779 --> 00:11:56,629
他们连想都不敢想

371
00:11:56,629 --> 00:12:00,830
所以当年的银行就像完全不同层次

372
00:12:00,830 --> 00:12:04,039
史蒂夫·艾森曼提出了非常中肯的观点

373
00:12:04,039 --> 00:12:05,399
非常中肯一切其他因素

374
00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:08,559
我不认为市场本身

375
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:10,690
高估就是有说服力的

376
00:12:10,690 --> 00:12:13,809
你怎么看私人信贷的故事

377
00:12:13,809 --> 00:12:16,570
人们每周都在讨论这个话题

378
00:12:16,570 --> 00:12:19,139
在私人信贷上忧心忡忡

379
00:12:19,139 --> 00:12:20,299
我们一直都在谈论

380
00:12:20,299 --> 00:12:20,909
是的

381
00:12:20,909 --> 00:12:24,409
有些人认为它正暴跌且糟糕透顶

382
00:12:24,409 --> 00:12:25,870
我可不是这样认为

383
00:12:25,870 --> 00:12:26,470
但也不完全

384
00:12:26,470 --> 00:12:27,830
但还有其他人

385
00:12:27,830 --> 00:12:30,529
我认为私人信贷领域存在问题

386
00:12:30,529 --> 00:12:31,009
是的

387
00:12:31,009 --> 00:12:34,190
但问题是这重要吗

388
00:12:34,678 --> 00:12:37,658
我不知道会对经济有多大影响

389
00:12:37,658 --> 00:12:40,980
即使引发信贷周期

390
00:12:42,139 --> 00:12:43,399
也不会系统性

391
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:45,580
因为银行资本更充足

392
00:12:45,580 --> 00:12:48,600
历史上从未如此

393
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,379
所以我感觉不到系统性风险

394
00:12:51,379 --> 00:12:53,440
我认为私人信贷的问题在于

395
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,179
过度暴露于软件行业

396
00:12:55,179 --> 00:12:59,139
昨天有个有趣的报告

397
00:12:59,139 --> 00:13:00,379
来自Ares公司

398
00:13:00,379 --> 00:13:01,379
发布了这份报告

399
00:13:01,379 --> 00:13:03,639
关于其软件领域的暴露

400
00:13:03,639 --> 00:13:08,370
85%的情况尚可，只有15%存在隐患

401
00:13:08,370 --> 00:13:13,659
当他们说让我们接受这份诚实的报告

402
00:13:13,659 --> 00:13:14,299
好的

403
00:13:14,299 --> 00:13:19,549
但问题在于当你提到85%的情况正常

404
00:13:19,549 --> 00:13:23,720
你的意思是这些公司运营良好并支付利息

405
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,259
这不是核心问题

406
00:13:25,259 --> 00:13:29,070
核心问题是像服务公司这样的企业

407
00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:29,669
现在

408
00:13:29,669 --> 00:13:31,470
标志性软件公司

409
00:13:31,470 --> 00:13:32,990
去年八月

410
00:13:32,990 --> 00:13:34,309
当时市值为209亿美元

411
00:13:34,309 --> 00:13:35,559
现在降至88亿美元

412
00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,720
较峰值下跌60%

413
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:38,710
所以如果你

414
00:13:38,710 --> 00:13:39,350
如果你

415
00:13:39,350 --> 00:13:41,509
如果你是私募股权机构

416
00:13:41,509 --> 00:13:42,730
如果你是私募股权机构

417
00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:47,309
且过度投资于已收购的软件公司

418
00:13:47,620 --> 00:13:50,590
你的公司价值缩水至一半以下

419
00:13:50,590 --> 00:13:52,429
这一点毋庸置疑

420
00:13:52,429 --> 00:13:55,529
即使这些公司看似正常，问题在于

421
00:13:55,529 --> 00:13:57,578
当需要为其重新融资时

422
00:13:57,578 --> 00:13:59,278
谁还愿意向它们放贷

423
00:13:59,278 --> 00:14:01,179
当股权价值低于一半时

424
00:14:01,179 --> 00:14:02,759
这就是即将发生的情况

425
00:14:02,759 --> 00:14:03,620
并非如此

426
00:14:03,620 --> 00:14:03,779
我

427
00:14:03,779 --> 00:14:05,980
我不知道这些公司会如何发展

428
00:14:05,980 --> 00:14:06,940
无人能确定

429
00:14:06,940 --> 00:14:08,419
但毫无疑问

430
00:14:08,419 --> 00:14:09,629
你知道吗

431
00:14:09,629 --> 00:14:10,610
我觉得

432
00:14:10,610 --> 00:14:13,210
伊曼森的分析有道理

433
00:14:13,210 --> 00:14:13,809
没错

434
00:14:13,809 --> 00:14:16,850
这些SaaS公司

435
00:14:16,850 --> 00:14:18,029
企业

436
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,919
它们的估值波动曾如此剧烈

437
00:14:22,919 --> 00:14:26,649
我确实觉得这

438
00:14:26,649 --> 00:14:28,169
我开始觉得

439
00:14:28,169 --> 00:14:32,230
这甚至不关乎AI对其商业模式的威胁

440
00:14:32,230 --> 00:14:34,169
我开始觉得确实如此

441
00:14:34,169 --> 00:14:35,330
你必须出售

442
00:14:35,330 --> 00:14:37,480
被迫以任何价格抛售

443
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,139
你只能尽快退出

444
00:14:39,139 --> 00:14:41,519
因为你可能过度杠杆化这些公司

445
00:14:41,519 --> 00:14:45,200
因为它们曾是稳定快速成长的企业

446
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,539
你本可期待持续上涨

447
00:14:47,539 --> 00:14:50,419
所以如果你是私募债权基金

448
00:14:50,419 --> 00:14:54,399
或类似机构且过度投资服务公司

449
00:14:54,399 --> 00:14:55,100
或者Salesforce

450
00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:56,980
或者这些SaaS相关公司

451
00:14:56,980 --> 00:14:58,068
哇

452
00:14:58,068 --> 00:14:58,849
你知道的

453
00:14:58,849 --> 00:15:01,230
你基本上被逼着卖了

454
00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:02,529
不管什么价格

455
00:15:02,529 --> 00:15:03,070
我无所谓

456
00:15:03,070 --> 00:15:04,190
让我在88美元出货

457
00:15:04,190 --> 00:15:05,250
让我在88美元出货

458
00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:06,230
对吧就像

459
00:15:06,230 --> 00:15:06,629
你知道的

460
00:15:06,629 --> 00:15:08,840
在金融危机期间这种情况很常见

461
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,379
如果你过度杠杆化房地产

462
00:15:11,379 --> 00:15:13,279
只能以任何价格抛售

463
00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:13,840
无所谓

464
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,089
如果当地房价下跌40%

465
00:15:17,089 --> 00:15:18,908
如果需要法拍或折价出售

466
00:15:18,908 --> 00:15:19,869
或者直接处理掉

467
00:15:19,869 --> 00:15:20,948
你必须处理掉

468
00:15:20,948 --> 00:15:21,950
就像不是

469
00:15:21,950 --> 00:15:22,850
你知道的就像

470
00:15:22,850 --> 00:15:23,070
哦

471
00:15:23,070 --> 00:15:24,110
我要等它反弹

472
00:15:24,110 --> 00:15:24,269
不

473
00:15:24,269 --> 00:15:25,889
如果你处于强制清算

474
00:15:25,889 --> 00:15:27,350
必须清算

475
00:15:27,350 --> 00:15:28,549
价格无所谓

476
00:15:28,549 --> 00:15:32,659
对的，我们甚至在股市看到类似情况

477
00:15:32,659 --> 00:15:34,750
真的在金融危机期间

478
00:15:34,750 --> 00:15:37,750
尤其是金融板块和普通股票

479
00:15:37,750 --> 00:15:39,169
在金融危机期间没错

480
00:15:39,169 --> 00:15:41,190
就是让我以任何价格出货

481
00:15:41,190 --> 00:15:43,850
你知道股市指数下跌50%

482
00:15:43,850 --> 00:15:46,149
人们仍在说不管什么价出货

483
00:15:46,149 --> 00:15:47,190
让我出货

484
00:15:47,190 --> 00:15:48,029
嗯

485
00:15:48,029 --> 00:15:50,169
科技泡沫破裂时就是这样

486
00:15:50,169 --> 00:15:51,669
总之就是这样

487
00:15:51,669 --> 00:15:53,009
你知道的

488
00:15:53,409 --> 00:15:56,409
我越来越觉得这是SaaS股的情况

489
00:15:56,409 --> 00:15:57,850
这就是它们持续下跌的原因

490
00:15:57,850 --> 00:15:58,929
就像

491
00:15:58,929 --> 00:16:01,309
更像是强制清算

492
00:16:01,309 --> 00:16:04,919
让我以任何价格出货，价值已被摧毁

493
00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:07,580
现在有没有什么你不敢碰的

494
00:16:09,039 --> 00:16:10,279
或者你会做空

495
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:12,720
考虑到你的声誉

496
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:13,360
嗯

497
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,399
我公开说

498
00:16:15,399 --> 00:16:15,879
我做空

499
00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:16,970
Fico

500
00:16:17,370 --> 00:16:27,250
我认为FICO非常傲慢地将价格提高了约五倍

501
00:16:27,250 --> 00:16:28,350
在过去的许多

502
00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:30,879
多年时间悄然流逝

503
00:16:30,879 --> 00:16:31,379
字面意义上

504
00:16:31,379 --> 00:16:33,019
信贷行业的所有人

505
00:16:33,019 --> 00:16:35,759
甚至在他们降价后

506
00:16:35,759 --> 00:16:41,970
当你比较FICO的定价与VantageScore为房贷收取的费用

507
00:16:41,970 --> 00:16:48,085
基本上相当于每百份房贷申请

508
00:16:48,830 --> 00:16:51,090
贷款机构将被FICO收取

509
00:16:51,090 --> 00:16:52,600
两千美元

510
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:53,840
优势方块

511
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:55,200
他们只需支付99美元

512
00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:57,279
两千美元

513
00:16:57,279 --> 00:16:58,299
99美元

514
00:16:58,299 --> 00:17:01,609
两千美元和99美元之间的差距很大

515
00:17:01,609 --> 00:17:02,068
嗯

516
00:17:02,068 --> 00:17:03,089
这很有趣

517
00:17:03,089 --> 00:17:03,548
是的

518
00:17:03,548 --> 00:17:04,608
FICO一直是个残酷的

519
00:17:04,608 --> 00:17:05,608
这些股票被严重打击

520
00:17:05,608 --> 00:17:05,808
我是说

521
00:17:05,808 --> 00:17:06,348
这确实

522
00:17:06,348 --> 00:17:07,888
如果我记得没错的话

523
00:17:07,888 --> 00:17:10,170
这曾是一只两千多美元的股票

524
00:17:10,170 --> 00:17:12,789
而最近却跌至九百多

525
00:17:12,789 --> 00:17:13,369
或者我们聊聊

526
00:17:13,369 --> 00:17:15,930
屏幕顶部的科技巨头

527
00:17:15,930 --> 00:17:16,730
是字母表公司

528
00:17:16,730 --> 00:17:18,309
股价上涨7%

529
00:17:18,309 --> 00:17:18,789
呃

530
00:17:18,789 --> 00:17:19,490
创下历史新高

531
00:17:19,490 --> 00:17:20,049
祝贺

532
00:17:20,049 --> 00:17:20,349
任何人

533
00:17:20,349 --> 00:17:22,710
这是谷歌麦克多格尔的股东

534
00:17:22,710 --> 00:17:25,138
今天行情相当不错

535
00:17:25,138 --> 00:17:26,159
这点值得注意

536
00:17:26,159 --> 00:17:26,459
吉米

537
00:17:26,459 --> 00:17:27,098
我来回答

538
00:17:27,098 --> 00:17:27,798
云业务收入激增

539
00:17:27,798 --> 00:17:30,180
资本支出数据增长

540
00:17:30,180 --> 00:17:30,880
提升

541
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,420
这些财报讨论的核心

542
00:17:33,420 --> 00:17:35,659
如果要增加开支

543
00:17:35,659 --> 00:17:39,179
必须有营收增长来支撑

544
00:17:39,179 --> 00:17:39,578
没错

545
00:17:39,578 --> 00:17:39,939
好的

546
00:17:39,939 --> 00:17:41,358
完全正确

547
00:17:41,358 --> 00:17:44,569
他们的云业务增长了63%

548
00:17:44,569 --> 00:17:44,950
是的

549
00:17:44,950 --> 00:17:45,509
这就是关键点

550
00:17:45,509 --> 00:17:47,509
他们的云业务增长了63%

551
00:17:47,509 --> 00:17:49,250
我们昨晚在主频道讨论过这个

552
00:17:49,250 --> 00:17:50,730
关于谷歌的主频道视频

553
00:17:50,730 --> 00:17:51,230
麦道格尔

554
00:17:51,230 --> 00:17:51,650
没错

555
00:17:51,650 --> 00:17:53,210
营收增长63%

556
00:17:54,289 --> 00:17:55,450
我的意思是

557
00:17:56,660 --> 00:18:00,579
你知道这种数字在财报会上可以糊弄过去

558
00:18:00,579 --> 00:18:02,400
而Meta做对了什么

559
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,019
Meta是我持仓的大头

560
00:18:04,019 --> 00:18:06,309
但Meta没完成任务

561
00:18:06,309 --> 00:18:07,509
他们报了3.3%

562
00:18:07,509 --> 00:18:08,250
这超出了预期

563
00:18:08,250 --> 00:18:08,710
他们确实

564
00:18:08,710 --> 00:18:09,589
从我观察的情况来看

565
00:18:09,589 --> 00:18:12,130
多数分析师都在3.1%左右徘徊

566
00:18:12,130 --> 00:18:13,779
所以他们报了3.3%

567
00:18:13,779 --> 00:18:16,700
但随后又上调了财报预期

568
00:18:16,700 --> 00:18:19,440
在已处于高位后

569
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,400
对吧，人们会说

570
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:22,059
你知道的

571
00:18:22,059 --> 00:18:23,180
这根本

572
00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:25,019
Meta本应提交

573
00:18:25,019 --> 00:18:25,920
像个疯狂的数字

574
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:26,880
比如3.5%

575
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,359
3.7%的营收增长

576
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,460
远超市场预期

577
00:18:31,460 --> 00:18:32,759
40%的数字

578
00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:33,240
你知道的

579
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:34,539
让所有人措手不及

580
00:18:34,539 --> 00:18:37,150
然后Meta就能糊弄过去

581
00:18:37,150 --> 00:18:40,819
如果Meta昨晚营收增长报3.8%

582
00:18:40,819 --> 00:18:41,700
而不是3

583
00:18:41,700 --> 00:18:42,859
1%的预期

584
00:18:42,859 --> 00:18:45,500
他们就能维持资本支出

585
00:18:45,500 --> 00:18:48,200
但当你3.3%对3.1%

586
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,150
人们会说不行

587
00:18:50,150 --> 00:18:50,869
你不能

588
00:18:50,869 --> 00:18:51,430
你不能进来

589
00:18:51,430 --> 00:18:52,589
然后提高资本支出

590
00:18:52,589 --> 00:18:55,549
他们必须保持稳定才能让股价上涨

591
00:18:55,549 --> 00:19:00,088
所以谷歌云业务63%增长

592
00:19:00,088 --> 00:19:01,348
人们会视而不见

593
00:19:01,348 --> 00:19:01,548
比如

594
00:19:01,548 --> 00:19:01,709
哦

595
00:19:01,709 --> 00:19:02,749
他们再次增加资本支出

596
00:19:02,749 --> 00:19:03,700
我们选择忽视

597
00:19:03,700 --> 00:19:05,099
继续维持63%增长

598
00:19:05,099 --> 00:19:08,319
将资本支出控制在180-190亿区间

599
00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:11,069
这从175到185

600
00:19:11,069 --> 00:19:12,990
今天有七个目标涨幅

601
00:19:12,990 --> 00:19:16,789
五四五十是高盛的最高点也需要它们

602
00:19:16,789 --> 00:19:18,459
你先来试试吧

603
00:19:18,459 --> 00:19:20,378
库存也上涨了50%

604
00:19:20,378 --> 00:19:20,719
至于

605
00:19:20,719 --> 00:19:21,358
你知道的

606
00:19:21,358 --> 00:19:23,298
所有在建数据中心的人

607
00:19:23,298 --> 00:19:25,880
核心理念是这些业务盈利

608
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:27,599
每增加一个增量

609
00:19:27,599 --> 00:19:27,900
我的意思是

610
00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:30,299
我大概记得一年前

611
00:19:30,299 --> 00:19:32,339
我刚刚想通了

612
00:19:32,700 --> 00:19:35,279
我刚想出如何修复Meta股票

613
00:19:35,279 --> 00:19:36,160
我刚想通了

614
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,529
这太疯狂了就在眼前

615
00:19:38,529 --> 00:19:40,109
我持有的股票已有百年

616
00:19:40,109 --> 00:19:41,730
所以我刚想通了

617
00:19:41,730 --> 00:19:43,490
这就是修复Meta股票的方法

618
00:19:43,490 --> 00:19:45,049
绝无虚假

619
00:19:45,490 --> 00:19:47,349
他们需要拆分业务

620
00:19:47,349 --> 00:19:49,470
我现在指的什么他们只是

621
00:19:49,470 --> 00:19:49,849
这确实

622
00:19:49,849 --> 00:19:51,349
你不知道谁在增长什么

623
00:19:51,349 --> 00:19:51,789
你不清楚

624
00:19:51,789 --> 00:19:52,630
谁在做哪些数据

625
00:19:52,630 --> 00:19:53,730
这简直一团糟

626
00:19:53,730 --> 00:19:55,789
然后一次性全部给你

627
00:19:55,789 --> 00:19:58,309
你不知道Instagram贡献了多少

628
00:20:00,769 --> 00:20:02,028
对比嗯

629
00:20:02,028 --> 00:20:03,409
Threads带来的收入如何

630
00:20:03,409 --> 00:20:04,888
甚至不确定他们是否在变现

631
00:20:04,888 --> 00:20:08,148
但预计明年或后年会更多

632
00:20:08,148 --> 00:20:11,670
他们需要拆分所有业务

633
00:20:11,670 --> 00:20:12,630
让我们看看

634
00:20:12,630 --> 00:20:14,710
各业务部门的运营利润是多少

635
00:20:14,710 --> 00:20:16,230
各业务部门的收入是多少

636
00:20:16,230 --> 00:20:17,890
各业务部门的收入增长情况

637
00:20:17,890 --> 00:20:18,519
没错

638
00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:19,900
这就是谷歌的做法

639
00:20:19,900 --> 00:20:20,920
谷歌会拆分业务

640
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,118
你可以看到谷歌的营收和运营利润

641
00:20:24,118 --> 00:20:26,118
这些业务的各项数据

642
00:20:26,118 --> 00:20:27,699
你也可以看到YouTube的数据

643
00:20:27,699 --> 00:20:28,969
对吧嗯

644
00:20:28,969 --> 00:20:30,189
他们拆分云业务

645
00:20:30,189 --> 00:20:31,929
我们知云计算业务增长了63%

646
00:20:33,048 --> 00:20:34,638
我也得开始这样做

647
00:20:34,638 --> 00:20:35,959
他们必须这样做

648
00:20:35,959 --> 00:20:37,659
扎克伯格可能不希望

649
00:20:37,659 --> 00:20:38,959
但他不得不

650
00:20:38,959 --> 00:20:40,690
他们将开始修复股票

651
00:20:40,690 --> 00:20:44,829
因为这样我们就可以开始讨论Meta内部快速增长的业务

652
00:20:44,829 --> 00:20:47,549
他们究竟把所有这些钱花在了哪里

653
00:20:47,549 --> 00:20:49,130
因为仍然存在很多困惑

654
00:20:49,130 --> 00:20:49,638
比如

655
00:20:49,638 --> 00:20:50,898
我们理解就像

656
00:20:50,898 --> 00:20:52,878
如果谷歌想疯狂投入

657
00:20:52,878 --> 00:20:56,980
我们明白这不是仅仅因为谷歌搜索和YouTube在安卓系统

658
00:20:56,980 --> 00:20:58,019
以及类似的事情我们觉得

659
00:20:58,019 --> 00:20:58,259
哦

660
00:20:58,259 --> 00:20:58,980
他们投入巨大

661
00:20:58,980 --> 00:21:01,779
云业务正在火箭般腾飞

662
00:21:01,779 --> 00:21:03,119
增长率达到63%

663
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,619
现在季度营收已超200亿美元

664
00:21:05,619 --> 00:21:05,980
没错

665
00:21:07,059 --> 00:21:08,250
亚马逊也想投入

666
00:21:08,250 --> 00:21:08,849
我们回应

667
00:21:08,849 --> 00:21:09,170
好的

668
00:21:09,170 --> 00:21:09,609
亚马逊

669
00:21:09,609 --> 00:21:10,390
我们理解

670
00:21:10,390 --> 00:21:13,250
你们显然拥有完整的电商基础设施需要持续投入

671
00:21:13,250 --> 00:21:15,509
但你们还有AWS和AWS

672
00:21:15,509 --> 00:21:16,808
增长速度持续加速

673
00:21:16,808 --> 00:21:18,328
每个季度都在刷新纪录

674
00:21:18,328 --> 00:21:19,848
我们不清楚还能增长到多高

675
00:21:19,848 --> 00:21:23,509
利润率可能重回30%水平

676
00:21:23,509 --> 00:21:24,970
正如Meta的情况

677
00:21:24,970 --> 00:21:28,450
我们正在整合这些数据

678
00:21:28,450 --> 00:21:29,250
我们只是

679
00:21:29,250 --> 00:21:29,769
嗯

680
00:21:29,769 --> 00:21:31,849
他们必须拆分所有业务

681
00:21:31,849 --> 00:21:33,880
这样做实际上能修复股票

682
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,900
然后我们才能讨论

683
00:21:38,859 --> 00:21:39,200
你知道的

684
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,079
现在我们有很多值得讨论的亮点

685
00:21:41,079 --> 00:21:41,750
这就像

686
00:21:41,750 --> 00:21:43,970
所有业务混为一团

687
00:21:43,970 --> 00:21:46,609
谈论人工智能时人们会问

688
00:21:46,609 --> 00:21:47,660
这是泡沫吗

689
00:21:47,660 --> 00:21:50,519
而我们节目中的许多人当时就指出

690
00:21:50,519 --> 00:21:51,619
这不是泡沫

691
00:21:51,619 --> 00:21:54,849
因为每增加的计算能力都有利可图

692
00:21:54,849 --> 00:21:57,490
所有业务都面临供应限制

693
00:21:57,490 --> 00:22:01,719
当你看到Alphabet和亚马逊的资本支出

694
00:22:01,719 --> 00:22:03,298
并知道这些投入是盈利的

695
00:22:03,298 --> 00:22:04,638
市场对此很认可

696
00:22:04,638 --> 00:22:05,578
现在这正是

697
00:22:05,578 --> 00:22:08,380
你说斯科特要进入这些财报分析

698
00:22:08,380 --> 00:22:09,240
问题在于

699
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,240
这些投资的回报率如何

700
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:12,640
我知道我们会提到所有名字

701
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,220
并非所有名字都显示出相同的盈利迹象

702
00:22:16,220 --> 00:22:19,490
但谷歌母公司绝对表现优异

703
00:22:19,490 --> 00:22:21,049
这让我觉得有趣

704
00:22:21,049 --> 00:22:21,569
至少这一点

705
00:22:21,569 --> 00:22:22,769
当我们讨论这个话题时

706
00:22:22,769 --> 00:22:25,140
当然我们关注云服务业务

707
00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:26,140
但还有YouTube呢

708
00:22:26,140 --> 00:22:27,980
还有基础搜索业务

709
00:22:27,980 --> 00:22:29,079
还有Gemini项目

710
00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:30,519
还有芯片业务

711
00:22:30,519 --> 00:22:33,839
这家公司拥有众多增长机会

712
00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:35,799
我认为现在必须持有

713
00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:38,500
我觉得去年夏天没得到足够认可

714
00:22:38,500 --> 00:22:41,980
确实谷歌有很多增长机会

715
00:22:41,980 --> 00:22:42,440
你明白的

716
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,140
他们正在做很多事情

717
00:22:44,140 --> 00:22:45,638
但他们都拆分得很清楚

718
00:22:45,638 --> 00:22:46,659
这非常令人兴奋

719
00:22:46,659 --> 00:22:47,919
没错还有Waymo

720
00:22:47,919 --> 00:22:52,200
我们正在与Meta合作开展这么多出行项目

721
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,319
他们似乎把所有业务都混在一起

722
00:22:54,319 --> 00:22:58,339
你很难看清Meta内部的各项业务

723
00:22:58,339 --> 00:22:59,839
现在这家公司的业务情况

724
00:22:59,839 --> 00:23:01,680
就像一个大块整体

725
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:02,279
哦好的

726
00:23:02,279 --> 00:23:03,589
我之前认为

727
00:23:03,589 --> 00:23:05,250
如果谷歌执行不力

728
00:23:05,250 --> 00:23:07,950
AI可能会开始侵蚀搜索业务

729
00:23:07,950 --> 00:23:13,299
这家公司可能面临最大风险

730
00:23:13,299 --> 00:23:15,839
他们内部也这么认为

731
00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:19,799
但他们采取了必要措施扭转局面

732
00:23:19,799 --> 00:23:21,859
如今他们已成为威胁

733
00:23:21,859 --> 00:23:25,440
Gemini是AI生态系统的威胁

734
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,470
那些跟不上节奏的公司

735
00:23:27,470 --> 00:23:33,150
你提到的4670亿美元 backlog

736
00:23:33,150 --> 00:23:35,440
将在未来两年确认

737
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:36,619
正如你所说

738
00:23:36,619 --> 00:23:38,079
作为股东

739
00:23:38,079 --> 00:23:39,579
看到股价上涨

740
00:23:39,579 --> 00:23:42,638
让你坚定持有的信心

741
00:23:42,638 --> 00:23:46,519
正是这笔 backlog 将转化为每股收益

742
00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:51,028
无需等待神秘周期就能看到效果

743
00:23:51,028 --> 00:23:52,969
战略方向毫无疑问

744
00:23:52,969 --> 00:23:55,229
我们不能这么说Meta

745
00:23:55,229 --> 00:23:56,108
我明白

746
00:23:56,108 --> 00:23:57,989
最后做个总结

747
00:23:57,989 --> 00:23:58,229
像

748
00:23:58,229 --> 00:23:59,349
如果你是投资者

749
00:23:59,349 --> 00:24:02,869
你现在想要持有市场上最赚钱的股票

750
00:24:02,869 --> 00:24:04,779
那就是字母表和乔什

751
00:24:04,779 --> 00:24:05,099
你知道的

752
00:24:05,099 --> 00:24:08,059
你在过去多年里为英伟达做了这么多

753
00:24:08,059 --> 00:24:10,740
在这段时间的大部分时间里，英伟达都是赢家

754
00:24:10,740 --> 00:24:12,819
它仍然是一个非常棒的公司

755
00:24:12,819 --> 00:24:13,640
但此刻

756
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,700
你必须持有的名字是字母表

757
00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:16,119
是的

758
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:16,500
杰森

759
00:24:16,500 --> 00:24:17,559
轮到你了

760
00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:21,019
然后乔的垂直整合就是故事核心

761
00:24:21,019 --> 00:24:22,279
收入增长两倍

762
00:24:22,279 --> 00:24:24,109
每股收益增长82%

763
00:24:24,109 --> 00:24:26,869
上季度云业务收入增长48%

764
00:24:26,869 --> 00:24:29,429
现在增长到了63%

765
00:24:29,429 --> 00:24:31,548
当我们谈到年初阶段

766
00:24:31,548 --> 00:24:32,548
一切都是关于资本支出

767
00:24:32,548 --> 00:24:35,028
回溯故事显然是针对超大规模数据中心

768
00:24:35,028 --> 00:24:36,269
作为股票价格下跌时

769
00:24:36,269 --> 00:24:38,750
现在我们已经看到投资回报

770
00:24:38,750 --> 00:24:40,990
而云业务数据再次印证这一点

771
00:24:40,990 --> 00:24:43,130
48%和48%的增长

772
00:24:43,130 --> 00:24:44,609
同比去年第四季度

773
00:24:44,609 --> 00:24:46,089
预期是50%

774
00:24:46,089 --> 00:24:49,528
他们以63%的成绩超越预期，正如吉米提到的搜索业务

775
00:24:49,528 --> 00:24:52,509
我认为这个数字对我很重要

776
00:24:52,509 --> 00:24:55,730
因为我需要确保他们保持中个位数增长

777
00:24:55,730 --> 00:24:57,569
实现了19%的增长

778
00:24:57,569 --> 00:24:58,269
同比去年

779
00:24:58,269 --> 00:24:59,170
对我来说

780
00:24:59,170 --> 00:25:00,930
查询量达到历史新高

781
00:25:00,930 --> 00:25:01,970
这确实打乱了

782
00:25:01,970 --> 00:25:04,890
大型语言模型即将颠覆行业

783
00:25:04,890 --> 00:25:05,490
乔伊

784
00:25:05,490 --> 00:25:05,809
是的

785
00:25:05,809 --> 00:25:07,910
我不明白为什么我们要制造这些

786
00:25:07,910 --> 00:25:10,378
而不是我们在这里的团队

787
00:25:10,378 --> 00:25:14,058
但我不明白为什么行业让事情变得比必要更复杂

788
00:25:14,058 --> 00:25:15,479
这对我来说很简单

789
00:25:15,479 --> 00:25:18,250
你面临市场风险

790
00:25:18,250 --> 00:25:21,420
市场非常明确地看待人工智能并认为

791
00:25:21,420 --> 00:25:23,140
我不需要为谜题搜索

792
00:25:23,140 --> 00:25:27,369
也不需要深入探究是否在变现

793
00:25:27,369 --> 00:25:29,730
在字母表案例中非常清晰

794
00:25:29,730 --> 00:25:30,950
我们昨天讨论过

795
00:25:30,950 --> 00:25:35,099
斯科特，你能看到他们正在变现

796
00:25:35,099 --> 00:25:36,579
我们昨天给出了云业务数据

797
00:25:36,579 --> 00:25:37,779
我说过五十个百分点

798
00:25:37,779 --> 00:25:39,119
你说这是耳语数字吗

799
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,289
因为大家都在说四十六个百分点啊

800
00:25:41,289 --> 00:25:43,309
我们甚至超过了五十个百分点

801
00:25:43,309 --> 00:25:45,049
他们拥有张量处理单元

802
00:25:45,049 --> 00:25:47,390
他们在2013年就投资了这项技术

803
00:25:47,390 --> 00:25:48,829
所以你能看到

804
00:25:48,829 --> 00:25:51,170
你可以看到变现情况

805
00:25:51,170 --> 00:25:53,829
这就是股票创下历史新高原因

806
00:25:53,829 --> 00:25:55,589
还有其他股票

807
00:25:55,589 --> 00:25:58,210
我不需要搜索就能解开谜题

808
00:25:58,210 --> 00:25:59,829
无论你是否在变现

809
00:25:59,829 --> 00:26:00,829
以meta为例

810
00:26:00,829 --> 00:26:02,480
我们稍后会讨论

811
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,839
我甚至不明白他们为何要花这么多钱

812
00:26:05,839 --> 00:26:07,299
他们确实有

813
00:26:07,660 --> 00:26:09,599
昨晚我在主频道告诉你们什么

814
00:26:09,599 --> 00:26:11,819
上次财报周期我告诉你们什么

815
00:26:11,819 --> 00:26:13,420
你们知道之前的财报

816
00:26:13,420 --> 00:26:15,170
这正是问题所在

817
00:26:15,170 --> 00:26:20,819
没人明白meta为何要花这么多

818
00:26:20,819 --> 00:26:21,859
我们也不理解

819
00:26:21,859 --> 00:26:24,059
meta需要巨额科技公司开支

820
00:26:24,059 --> 00:26:25,440
他们在为未来布局

821
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,299
 blah blah blah

822
00:26:26,299 --> 00:26:30,630
没人理解为何要如此极端 人们能理解谷歌和亚马逊

823
00:26:30,630 --> 00:26:32,210
没错甚至微软

824
00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:35,509
因为他们有庞大的云业务与meta竞争

825
00:26:35,509 --> 00:26:37,130
我们不明白为什么

826
00:26:37,529 --> 00:26:38,210
为什么

827
00:26:38,210 --> 00:26:39,349
为什么需要这么多

828
00:26:39,349 --> 00:26:41,230
所以必须投入这么多

829
00:26:41,230 --> 00:26:42,980
只是为了获得更多

830
00:26:42,980 --> 00:26:43,440
呃

831
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,220
有趣的ins reels可以分享

832
00:26:46,220 --> 00:26:48,539
因为这就是为何要投入这么多

833
00:26:48,539 --> 00:26:49,789
我不这么认为

834
00:26:49,789 --> 00:26:50,950
这就是问题所在

835
00:26:50,950 --> 00:26:52,170
没人理解

836
00:26:52,170 --> 00:26:53,910
为何meta要花这么多

837
00:26:53,910 --> 00:26:55,769
扎克伯格解释得不够好

838
00:26:55,769 --> 00:26:57,599
解释得不够清楚

839
00:26:57,599 --> 00:26:59,660
广告收入驱动模式

840
00:26:59,660 --> 00:27:01,920
他们在社交媒体平台占据主导

841
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,200
他们没有芯片业务

842
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,289
他们没有云服务

843
00:27:04,289 --> 00:27:06,609
为何要花这么多实际的钱

844
00:27:06,609 --> 00:27:08,710
我们也可以说

845
00:27:08,710 --> 00:27:12,930
集团ceo苏尼尔·萨奇

846
00:27:12,930 --> 00:27:17,509
可能是最低调的ceo

847
00:27:17,509 --> 00:27:20,170
他并不是那种人

848
00:27:20,410 --> 00:27:23,849
我不是在贬低其他人的意思

849
00:27:23,849 --> 00:27:27,430
但他并非自我推销者

850
00:27:27,589 --> 00:27:31,388
他公开活动并不多

851
00:27:31,868 --> 00:27:32,949
但他表现非常出色

852
00:27:32,949 --> 00:27:35,028
你不会看到他在签名

853
00:27:35,028 --> 00:27:36,749
任何人的俄罗斯胸罩

854
00:27:36,749 --> 00:27:39,449
我们可以安全地说

855
00:27:39,449 --> 00:27:41,930
他根本没露面

856
00:27:41,930 --> 00:27:42,950
这种情况经常发生

857
00:27:42,950 --> 00:27:45,450
但股价已经说明一切

858
00:27:45,450 --> 00:27:45,950
好的

859
00:27:46,990 --> 00:27:48,339
双子座三号

860
00:27:48,339 --> 00:27:53,480
这次发布震惊了许多人

861
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:54,960
已经说明了一切

862
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,190
这就是我们的明确赢家

863
00:27:59,589 --> 00:28:00,589
我们宣布

864
00:28:00,589 --> 00:28:02,710
今日明确输家是Meta

865
00:28:02,710 --> 00:28:04,170
看看这只股票

866
00:28:04,170 --> 00:28:07,940
他们股价下跌了9%

867
00:28:07,940 --> 00:28:08,299
好的

868
00:28:08,299 --> 00:28:10,839
他们增加了资本支出

869
00:28:10,839 --> 00:28:11,440
嗯

870
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:16,459
这持续给自由现金流施压并造成缺口

871
00:28:16,459 --> 00:28:18,999
如果要说这些公司的共同点

872
00:28:18,999 --> 00:28:20,278
自由现金流

873
00:28:20,278 --> 00:28:22,538
曾是压力点

874
00:28:22,538 --> 00:28:23,769
有时

875
00:28:24,250 --> 00:28:26,190
可能仍有一定影响

876
00:28:26,190 --> 00:28:30,999
但市场似乎更接受某些公司

877
00:28:30,999 --> 00:28:33,439
他们的销售额同比增长33%

878
00:28:33,439 --> 00:28:36,619
这是自2021年以来最强扩张期

879
00:28:36,619 --> 00:28:39,220
他们也更新了资本支出计划

880
00:28:39,220 --> 00:28:41,259
他们提高了资本支出

881
00:28:41,259 --> 00:28:46,960
但若过度施压自由现金流

882
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:53,269
让投资者难以准确理解

883
00:28:53,269 --> 00:28:55,769
就会被下调评级

884
00:28:55,769 --> 00:28:59,210
今日摩根士丹利将其评级下调至中性

885
00:28:59,210 --> 00:29:02,470
从825降至725

886
00:29:02,470 --> 00:29:04,529
史蒂夫·魏斯通过Zoom连线

887
00:29:04,529 --> 00:29:06,789
今天没人在这台设备持有该股

888
00:29:06,789 --> 00:29:09,919
但我们的圈子有不少人

889
00:29:09,919 --> 00:29:10,598
你在看哪里

890
00:29:10,598 --> 00:29:11,558
我们在这里

891
00:29:13,278 --> 00:29:16,490
我刚加入

892
00:29:16,609 --> 00:29:19,329
你刚从哪个星球回来

893
00:29:19,329 --> 00:29:20,349
但我们在这里

894
00:29:20,349 --> 00:29:24,529
所以你今天又买了更多Meta

895
00:29:24,529 --> 00:29:29,009
你是否不受这些结果影响

896
00:29:29,009 --> 00:29:32,369
今日市场下跌9%

897
00:29:32,369 --> 00:29:33,990
我看起来

898
00:29:33,990 --> 00:29:38,650
我不追求在任何市场任何一天持有表现最差的股票

899
00:29:38,650 --> 00:29:40,359
但这就是我所拥有的

900
00:29:40,359 --> 00:29:40,960
呃

901
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,279
但当我审视这个季度

902
00:29:42,279 --> 00:29:43,789
这个季度表现非凡

903
00:29:43,789 --> 00:29:47,049
如果他们没有宣布增加资本支出

904
00:29:47,049 --> 00:29:49,630
我认为股价会上涨百分之十

905
00:29:49,630 --> 00:29:51,210
下调十个百分点

906
00:29:51,210 --> 00:29:54,529
因为每个数据点都很出色

907
00:29:54,529 --> 00:29:57,559
我们从未见过这种持续增长

908
00:29:57,559 --> 00:29:59,779
很久以前就处于中二十区间

909
00:29:59,779 --> 00:30:01,980
但这并非完全不可能

910
00:30:01,980 --> 00:30:05,730
从之前的季度我们可知他们会提高资本回报

911
00:30:05,730 --> 00:30:07,250
但就是这样他们确实做到了

912
00:30:07,250 --> 00:30:11,818
今天还宣布了六十亿美元的债券发行

913
00:30:11,818 --> 00:30:14,058
所以我要快速建议

914
00:30:14,058 --> 00:30:14,338
为什么

915
00:30:14,338 --> 00:30:14,719
你知道的

916
00:30:14,719 --> 00:30:16,410
看看其他方面

917
00:30:16,410 --> 00:30:17,029
正如我之前提到的

918
00:30:17,029 --> 00:30:20,109
有些公司也提高了他们的资本支出

919
00:30:20,109 --> 00:30:23,299
但你我不觉得

920
00:30:23,299 --> 00:30:26,630
我这是抛出观点供你反应

921
00:30:26,630 --> 00:30:31,809
我不觉得华尔街完全信任Meta

922
00:30:31,809 --> 00:30:33,799
百分之百投入

923
00:30:33,799 --> 00:30:35,839
我已是股东多年

924
00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:36,660
我认为这

925
00:30:36,660 --> 00:30:37,579
你知道的

926
00:30:37,579 --> 00:30:37,980
首先

927
00:30:37,980 --> 00:30:40,680
我是在他们上市后不久买入的

928
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:41,759
股价一度跌至十九美元

929
00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:44,130
我在十九年买入并卖出

930
00:30:44,130 --> 00:30:45,950
那是我首次买卖Meta股票

931
00:30:45,950 --> 00:30:47,289
但我开始建立大仓位

932
00:30:47,289 --> 00:30:49,789
Meta在二零一八年左右

933
00:30:49,789 --> 00:30:51,789
多年来逐步增持

934
00:30:51,789 --> 00:30:55,470
并在二零二二年危机期间大幅加仓

935
00:30:55,869 --> 00:31:00,329
请让我解释为何Meta需要在AI上投入这么多

936
00:31:00,329 --> 00:31:02,069
我做不到

937
00:31:02,390 --> 00:31:03,799
我做不到

938
00:31:03,799 --> 00:31:10,319
请AI解释为何Meta要在

939
00:31:10,319 --> 00:31:10,960
芯片领域

940
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,000
在基础设施和资本支出上

941
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,319
它无法解释

942
00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:21,920
请扎克伯格解释为何要如此激进投入

943
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:24,809
他做不到

944
00:31:26,230 --> 00:31:29,150
这就是为何现在大家对Meta失去信心

945
00:31:29,150 --> 00:31:32,779
因为连CEO都无法阐明

946
00:31:32,779 --> 00:31:35,240
为何需要如此巨额投入

947
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,859
就像没人真正理解一样

948
00:31:38,859 --> 00:31:39,900
他甚至不明白其中含义

949
00:31:39,900 --> 00:31:42,000
这就是为什么大家对元宇宙感到沮丧

950
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:43,769
这就是为什么股价持续低迷

951
00:31:43,769 --> 00:31:44,650
在柔和的光线中

952
00:31:44,650 --> 00:31:46,390
谷歌现在过得非常畅快

953
00:31:46,390 --> 00:31:51,259
就这家公司在某些时候的其他行为而言

954
00:31:51,259 --> 00:31:54,160
尽管元宇宙的增长速度远超谷歌

955
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:55,599
元宇宙实现了三倍增长

956
00:31:55,599 --> 00:31:58,239
谷歌如果我记得没错增长了约20%

957
00:31:58,239 --> 00:32:01,049
因此元宇宙增长远快于谷歌

958
00:32:01,049 --> 00:32:01,430
但没错

959
00:32:01,430 --> 00:32:02,470
谷歌正在举办派对

960
00:32:02,470 --> 00:32:04,109
并且大举投入资本开支

961
00:32:04,109 --> 00:32:05,630
因为他们能合理解释这些支出

962
00:32:05,630 --> 00:32:09,670
巨额资金分散投入各处

963
00:32:09,670 --> 00:32:09,950
现在

964
00:32:09,950 --> 00:32:12,670
我不认为AI属于分散领域

965
00:32:12,670 --> 00:32:16,369
因为大家都在该领域投入资金

966
00:32:16,369 --> 00:32:21,880
但几个季度前他们的支出曾遭质疑

967
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,839
如今我们又面临相同情况

968
00:32:23,839 --> 00:32:25,880
这次支出再次引发质疑

969
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:31,700
我不确定市场是否信任资金使用方式

970
00:32:31,700 --> 00:32:34,909
或者投入金额是否合理，这公平吗

971
00:32:35,229 --> 00:32:36,388
我认为这是公平的

972
00:32:36,388 --> 00:32:38,348
这正是我们看到的市场反应

973
00:32:38,348 --> 00:32:38,689
然而

974
00:32:38,689 --> 00:32:40,528
我会这样回应

975
00:32:40,528 --> 00:32:42,700
公司仍在持续增长

976
00:32:42,700 --> 00:32:46,680
首先之前的支出失误

977
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,799
确实很少发生

978
00:32:48,799 --> 00:32:52,680
扎克伯格迅速为支出辩护

979
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,839
我们看到大规模裁员案例

980
00:32:55,839 --> 00:32:56,730
所有

981
00:32:56,730 --> 00:32:58,009
Max七号项目顺利推进

982
00:32:58,009 --> 00:33:03,240
随后他迅速削减其他开支

983
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:03,799
嗯

984
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:04,880
比如智能眼镜和

985
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:05,180
你知道的

986
00:33:05,180 --> 00:33:05,779
逐渐调整

987
00:33:05,779 --> 00:33:06,619
但总体而言

988
00:33:06,619 --> 00:33:08,279
这才是企业应有的表现

989
00:33:08,279 --> 00:33:08,920
你知道的

990
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,019
我希望企业

991
00:33:10,019 --> 00:33:11,480
尤其是这种规模

992
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:12,440
我希望它们

993
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,509
保持创始人特质

994
00:33:14,509 --> 00:33:17,630
初创公司思维

995
00:33:17,630 --> 00:33:19,490
这样才能持续发展

996
00:33:19,490 --> 00:33:21,029
企业不可能永远完美

997
00:33:21,029 --> 00:33:23,269
或者对于这些规模的公司

998
00:33:23,269 --> 00:33:24,849
来说几乎不可能

999
00:33:24,849 --> 00:33:27,190
在这样的营收基础上增长

1000
00:33:27,190 --> 00:33:28,869
但他却做到了

1001
00:33:28,869 --> 00:33:30,949
我认为人们过于关注这一点

1002
00:33:30,949 --> 00:33:32,828
而我认为应该更关注

1003
00:33:32,828 --> 00:33:35,308
他实际上很好地管理了资本

1004
00:33:35,308 --> 00:33:36,409
从结果来看

1005
00:33:36,409 --> 00:33:37,500
他现在已经实现了

1006
00:33:37,500 --> 00:33:39,259
我们得到了太多白人

1007
00:33:39,259 --> 00:33:40,220
一针见血

1008
00:33:40,220 --> 00:33:41,519
短山先生的资本运作

1009
00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:41,740
好的

1010
00:33:41,740 --> 00:33:42,980
他一针见血

1011
00:33:42,980 --> 00:33:44,039
听着

1012
00:33:44,039 --> 00:33:46,279
扎克伯格能迅速调整方向

1013
00:33:46,279 --> 00:33:48,240
现在他们完全失控了

1014
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,799
在他们的资本支出上

1015
00:33:51,930 --> 00:33:52,849
一年后

1016
00:33:52,849 --> 00:33:53,410
两年后

1017
00:33:53,410 --> 00:33:55,789
他完全可以转向并宣布削减资本支出

1018
00:33:55,789 --> 00:33:57,069
你知道百分之五十

1019
00:33:57,069 --> 00:33:57,730
百分之七十

1020
00:33:57,730 --> 00:33:58,450
任意比例

1021
00:33:58,450 --> 00:34:00,069
你知道百分之三十

1022
00:34:00,069 --> 00:34:01,569
所以他可以调整

1023
00:34:01,569 --> 00:34:03,109
而且他毫不畏惧

1024
00:34:03,109 --> 00:34:04,430
他过去多次这样做过

1025
00:34:04,430 --> 00:34:11,369
问题在于可能需要Meta股价暴跌才能实现

1026
00:34:11,369 --> 00:34:15,630
可能需要Meta股价跌至350到400到450

1027
00:34:15,630 --> 00:34:16,789
为了他能够说

1028
00:34:16,789 --> 00:34:17,170
好的

1029
00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:17,789
你知道吗

1030
00:34:17,789 --> 00:34:19,840
我决定这么做

1031
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,980
这就是需要留意的地方

1032
00:34:21,980 --> 00:34:23,659
这就是Meta股票危险之处

1033
00:34:23,659 --> 00:34:25,199
这也是我昨晚提到的

1034
00:34:25,199 --> 00:34:26,498
如果市场真的恶化

1035
00:34:26,498 --> 00:34:27,878
如果Meta股票真的暴跌

1036
00:34:27,878 --> 00:34:29,778
最坏情况跌至350

1037
00:34:29,778 --> 00:34:31,259
这离现在太远了

1038
00:34:31,259 --> 00:34:31,769
对吧

1039
00:34:31,769 --> 00:34:32,909
但这不意味着会发生

1040
00:34:32,909 --> 00:34:33,690
我只是说

1041
00:34:33,690 --> 00:34:35,530
如果你想考虑最坏情况

1042
00:34:35,530 --> 00:34:36,869
情景如何发展

1043
00:34:36,869 --> 00:34:38,389
就是这样发生的

1044
00:34:38,389 --> 00:34:40,050
所以

1045
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,699
值得考虑

1046
00:34:43,699 --> 00:34:44,840
嗯但就是这样

1047
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:45,559
扎克伯格

1048
00:34:45,559 --> 00:34:48,210
你知道他会切换的

1049
00:34:48,210 --> 00:34:51,030
如果事情没有按预期发展

1050
00:34:51,030 --> 00:34:52,929
如果股价被砸盘

1051
00:34:52,929 --> 00:34:53,929
不要感到意外

1052
00:34:53,929 --> 00:34:54,489
如果他切换了

1053
00:34:54,489 --> 00:34:55,369
然后突然他们从

1054
00:34:55,369 --> 00:34:55,769
你知道的

1055
00:34:55,769 --> 00:34:58,070
花费这些荒谬的金额去

1056
00:34:58,070 --> 00:34:58,889
更小的数字

1057
00:34:58,889 --> 00:34:59,250
史蒂夫

1058
00:34:59,250 --> 00:35:00,190
我想问你

1059
00:35:00,190 --> 00:35:04,579
我认为Meta是AI的最佳使用者

1060
00:35:04,579 --> 00:35:05,898
或许在全世界

1061
00:35:05,898 --> 00:35:09,070
他们在轮子和粘性功能上的表现

1062
00:35:09,070 --> 00:35:11,719
以及他们建立的参与度

1063
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,179
这一点同样正确

1064
00:35:13,179 --> 00:35:14,440
JB说的很对

1065
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,639
我认为没有人比他们更擅长优化广告和参与度引擎

1066
00:35:18,639 --> 00:35:19,840
使用AI

1067
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,849
关于股票的问题可以理解

1068
00:35:22,849 --> 00:35:23,570
但除此之外

1069
00:35:23,570 --> 00:35:25,889
业务的97%是广告

1070
00:35:25,889 --> 00:35:27,909
他们所有的投入

1071
00:35:27,909 --> 00:35:30,199
没人知道ROI如何

1072
00:35:30,199 --> 00:35:32,139
正如乔所说

1073
00:35:32,139 --> 00:35:33,920
他们并不在数据中心业务

1074
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,358
事实上他们在租赁

1075
00:35:35,358 --> 00:35:35,798
嗯

1076
00:35:35,798 --> 00:35:36,719
如果看看财务数据

1077
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,358
所以我很想听听

1078
00:35:38,358 --> 00:35:40,018
只是听听Meta的

1079
00:35:40,018 --> 00:35:40,719
AI战略

1080
00:35:41,759 --> 00:35:44,039
除了让轮子更上瘾

1081
00:35:44,039 --> 00:35:48,639
未来几个季度还能从哪些方面增收

1082
00:35:48,929 --> 00:35:49,429
嗯

1083
00:35:49,429 --> 00:35:51,960
你知道这个问题

1084
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,079
可以问他们所有人

1085
00:35:54,079 --> 00:35:59,309
我不认为我们可以得出结论说我们真的了解亚马逊的

1086
00:35:59,309 --> 00:36:02,289
我的支出肯定会带来更多流量

1087
00:36:02,289 --> 00:36:05,550
AWS有十百万客户

1088
00:36:05,550 --> 00:36:08,500
所以我们确实有权利所以所以

1089
00:36:08,500 --> 00:36:09,920
如果我们看看

1090
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,840
来自Meta的参与度

1091
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,739
他们昨晚公布的数字

1092
00:36:14,739 --> 00:36:16,760
这是全球性的

1093
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:17,989
这太棒了

1094
00:36:17,989 --> 00:36:20,030
在某些情况下实际上

1095
00:36:20,030 --> 00:36:22,409
在所有情况下当有CEO时

1096
00:36:22,409 --> 00:36:24,849
在某种程度上你必须承认

1097
00:36:24,849 --> 00:36:27,230
我信任这个人能带来产品

1098
00:36:27,230 --> 00:36:29,349
记得他收购的Instagram

1099
00:36:29,349 --> 00:36:33,269
而这次收购如今发展成了什么

1100
00:36:33,269 --> 00:36:35,369
所以他们成为广告领域的领头羊

1101
00:36:35,369 --> 00:36:36,190
你知道的

1102
00:36:36,190 --> 00:36:39,099
现在全球最热门的广告平台

1103
00:36:39,099 --> 00:36:41,068
他们并未放弃那颗种子

1104
00:36:41,068 --> 00:36:42,768
其中最天才的部分在于

1105
00:36:42,768 --> 00:36:43,208
呃

1106
00:36:43,208 --> 00:36:44,469
Meta的人工智能战略

1107
00:36:44,469 --> 00:36:45,228
我认为这很重要

1108
00:36:45,228 --> 00:36:46,108
每个人都应该明白这一点

1109
00:36:46,108 --> 00:36:48,389
如果你关心Meta股票

1110
00:36:49,230 --> 00:36:50,409
说到关键点

1111
00:36:50,409 --> 00:36:51,030
没错

1112
00:36:51,030 --> 00:36:55,449
他们的核心策略就是让你尽可能多留在平台

1113
00:36:55,449 --> 00:36:57,028
没错 所以他们需要让你

1114
00:36:57,028 --> 00:37:00,469
发送最令人愉悦的内容 甚至成瘾性内容

1115
00:37:00,469 --> 00:37:03,199
没错 但最吸引你观看的内容

1116
00:37:03,199 --> 00:37:05,460
或许还要分享给朋友和家人

1117
00:37:05,460 --> 00:37:05,699
没错

1118
00:37:05,699 --> 00:37:06,920
因此他们活跃在平台

1119
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:08,500
停留时间更长

1120
00:37:08,500 --> 00:37:10,900
可以反过来

1121
00:37:10,900 --> 00:37:14,639
在购买决策时做同样的事

1122
00:37:14,639 --> 00:37:16,989
没错 如果你的AI和算法足够了解

1123
00:37:16,989 --> 00:37:20,230
如何推送适合你的内容

1124
00:37:20,230 --> 00:37:22,230
什么样的图片或视频推荐给你

1125
00:37:22,230 --> 00:37:24,750
没错

1126
00:37:24,750 --> 00:37:25,148
那么

1127
00:37:25,148 --> 00:37:27,168
也能轻松判断

1128
00:37:27,168 --> 00:37:29,909
你最可能点击的广告内容

1129
00:37:29,909 --> 00:37:31,389
这就是他们的盈利方式

1130
00:37:31,389 --> 00:37:33,000
你最可能购买的商品

1131
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:33,559
没错

1132
00:37:33,559 --> 00:37:36,360
这会让投放广告的公司

1133
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:36,780
赚更多钱

1134
00:37:36,780 --> 00:37:38,099
提升投资回报率

1135
00:37:38,099 --> 00:37:40,420
因此这些公司愿在Instagram多投入

1136
00:37:40,420 --> 00:37:41,099
在Facebook多投放

1137
00:37:41,099 --> 00:37:43,320
没错 这形成完美循环

1138
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:44,480
所以如果你在想

1139
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,300
Meta商业模式的魔力在哪里

1140
00:37:46,300 --> 00:37:47,780
这就是商业模式的核心

1141
00:37:47,780 --> 00:37:49,780
现在我们仍不清楚为何

1142
00:37:49,780 --> 00:37:53,920
他们仍需投入约1450亿美元在Cap X项目

1143
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,159
因为他们的算法运作方式

1144
00:37:57,159 --> 00:37:59,338
AI系统本不应需要145亿

1145
00:37:59,338 --> 00:38:01,579
美元的巨额投入

1146
00:38:01,579 --> 00:38:04,250
但这正是Meta商业模式的魔力

1147
00:38:04,250 --> 00:38:06,409
这就是我为何是Meta的超级投资者

1148
00:38:06,409 --> 00:38:07,530
我可能今天就买了股票

1149
00:38:07,530 --> 00:38:09,039
我们稍后会详细分析股票

1150
00:38:09,039 --> 00:38:09,880
但这件事非常重要

1151
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,119
大家应该都明白吧

1152
00:38:11,119 --> 00:38:12,800
同样的方法可以被应用

1153
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:13,000
用于

1154
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,860
广告中最可能被点击的是什么

1155
00:38:14,860 --> 00:38:16,039
最可能被购买的是什么

1156
00:38:16,039 --> 00:38:18,519
所以我关注的是

1157
00:38:18,519 --> 00:38:24,119
我公司2026年市盈率在20倍左右

1158
00:38:24,119 --> 00:38:25,800
估值已经上调

1159
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,690
营收指引也同步上调

1160
00:38:29,690 --> 00:38:34,199
目前股价较标普低20%以上

1161
00:38:34,199 --> 00:38:36,860
而标普的增长潜力远不及他们

1162
00:38:36,860 --> 00:38:38,780
这就是为何这里看空

1163
00:38:38,780 --> 00:38:40,900
我认为这是典型的恐慌情绪

1164
00:38:40,900 --> 00:38:41,840
你知道吗

1165
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:42,929
你知道这方面的投入

1166
00:38:42,929 --> 00:38:44,710
当我对扎克伯格有信心时

1167
00:38:44,710 --> 00:38:46,269
对管理层和公司整体

1168
00:38:46,269 --> 00:38:47,889
而且股价非常便宜

1169
00:38:47,889 --> 00:38:49,550
所以我继续加仓

1170
00:38:49,550 --> 00:38:53,650
这就是为何必须区分股票的短期与长期

1171
00:38:53,650 --> 00:38:55,139
关于短期

1172
00:38:55,139 --> 00:38:56,820
Meta的情况有些难看

1173
00:38:56,820 --> 00:38:58,119
因为资本支出过于激进

1174
00:38:58,119 --> 00:39:00,579
这将大幅影响折旧费用

1175
00:39:00,579 --> 00:39:01,960
并将波及多个财务项目

1176
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:03,949
从而抑制每股收益

1177
00:39:03,949 --> 00:39:07,150
说实话我都不敢告诉你们

1178
00:39:07,150 --> 00:39:08,909
我不信任我的预测

1179
00:39:08,909 --> 00:39:09,730
当前股价

1180
00:39:09,730 --> 00:39:10,528
现在的股价

1181
00:39:10,528 --> 00:39:11,409
你根本不知道

1182
00:39:11,409 --> 00:39:12,809
因为我们不清楚

1183
00:39:12,809 --> 00:39:15,400
扎克伯格会如何增加资本支出

1184
00:39:16,199 --> 00:39:18,880
公司能否维持这种增长速度

1185
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:19,239
我不确定

1186
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:20,739
也许我们拭目以待

1187
00:39:20,739 --> 00:39:22,460
但我不愿押注

1188
00:39:22,460 --> 00:39:25,320
毕竟扎克伯格的支出失控了

1189
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,039
现在他不断突破数字

1190
00:39:27,039 --> 00:39:28,849
这些数字连自己都没想到

1191
00:39:28,849 --> 00:39:30,849
包括我在内的资本支出

1192
00:39:30,849 --> 00:39:33,829
实际上很难准确预测

1193
00:39:33,829 --> 00:39:36,489
未来一年或两年的每股收益

1194
00:39:36,489 --> 00:39:37,889
至少我现在不敢这么做

1195
00:39:37,889 --> 00:39:40,590
作为十七年市场投资者

1196
00:39:40,590 --> 00:39:43,809
至少八年Meta股东

1197
00:39:43,809 --> 00:39:44,710
以严肃的态度

1198
00:39:44,710 --> 00:39:46,829
感谢你来告诉我们这件事史蒂夫

1199
00:39:46,829 --> 00:39:48,070
我们会把文件放回桌面上

1200
00:39:48,070 --> 00:39:49,150
这是史蒂文·魏

1201
00:39:49,150 --> 00:39:50,699
回到刚才的话题

1202
00:39:53,159 --> 00:39:55,739
在超级碗之前呼应乔什的观点

1203
00:39:55,739 --> 00:39:57,989
我认为他用的是直白的语言

1204
00:39:57,989 --> 00:39:59,409
没人使用

1205
00:39:59,409 --> 00:40:00,750
像Meta这样的AI

1206
00:40:00,750 --> 00:40:02,010
或比Meta更好

1207
00:40:02,010 --> 00:40:03,150
当然没错

1208
00:40:03,150 --> 00:40:03,449
他们

1209
00:40:03,449 --> 00:40:03,769
他们

1210
00:40:03,769 --> 00:40:05,489
他们是Meta的优秀用户

1211
00:40:05,489 --> 00:40:06,309
嗯

1212
00:40:06,309 --> 00:40:10,528
我认为他们在收购策略上非常出色

1213
00:40:10,528 --> 00:40:14,728
而不是花钱尝试自然增长

1214
00:40:14,728 --> 00:40:16,389
继续进行收购

1215
00:40:16,389 --> 00:40:18,679
你会花十亿美元买Instagram吗

1216
00:40:18,679 --> 00:40:19,239
没错

1217
00:40:21,380 --> 00:40:25,039
他们在收购和构建社交生态方面很擅长

1218
00:40:25,039 --> 00:40:28,469
这是一家力求实现目标的公司

1219
00:40:28,469 --> 00:40:29,809
他们拥有这个

1220
00:40:29,809 --> 00:40:32,869
他们拥有这个Muse Spark模型

1221
00:40:32,869 --> 00:40:35,099
希望企业使用它

1222
00:40:35,099 --> 00:40:38,059
希望消费者接受它

1223
00:40:38,059 --> 00:40:39,900
并非没人会使用

1224
00:40:39,900 --> 00:40:42,639
而是无法与当前情况相比

1225
00:40:42,639 --> 00:40:45,679
在Gemini、Claude那一边

1226
00:40:45,679 --> 00:40:46,440
Chat GBT

1227
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:47,659
不在同一水平

1228
00:40:47,659 --> 00:40:49,250
哦好的

1229
00:40:49,250 --> 00:40:49,969
接下来这里

1230
00:40:49,969 --> 00:40:51,510
让我们进入所有股票

1231
00:40:51,510 --> 00:40:57,010
我今天买入了价值约7.3万美元的AB股

1232
00:40:57,010 --> 00:40:57,909
哦是的

1233
00:40:57,909 --> 00:40:58,730
宝宝好

1234
00:40:58,730 --> 00:41:00,349
这次我在私股群发了帖子

1235
00:41:00,349 --> 00:41:01,730
如果你想加入我的私股群

1236
00:41:01,730 --> 00:41:04,199
申请链接在下方评论区

1237
00:41:04,199 --> 00:41:06,000
获得专属Discord聊天权限

1238
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:07,980
这就是我现在为你准备的

1239
00:41:07,980 --> 00:41:12,239
这里有六七位数的成员

1240
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:13,159
包括我自己

1241
00:41:13,159 --> 00:41:14,519
我也在其中

1242
00:41:14,519 --> 00:41:16,699
我在面包屑标签发消息

1243
00:41:16,699 --> 00:41:18,340
包括这个

1244
00:41:18,340 --> 00:41:19,219
好的

1245
00:41:19,219 --> 00:41:23,449
所以这些是我买的股票，meta 嗨

1246
00:41:23,449 --> 00:41:24,610
我今天买了些 meta 股

1247
00:41:24,610 --> 00:41:26,969
我买了十七股 meta

1248
00:41:26,969 --> 00:41:28,329
六百一十五美元

1249
00:41:28,329 --> 00:41:31,130
我支付了那些特定的 meta 股份

1250
00:41:31,130 --> 00:41:35,449
你知道那 cap back 的情况真是令人沮丧

1251
00:41:35,449 --> 00:41:37,809
但故事的其余部分令人惊叹

1252
00:41:37,809 --> 00:41:38,530
损益表

1253
00:41:38,530 --> 00:41:39,469
资产负债表

1254
00:41:39,469 --> 00:41:40,269
现金

1255
00:41:40,269 --> 00:41:41,710
所有现金流

1256
00:41:41,710 --> 00:41:43,750
现在很令人兴奋

1257
00:41:43,750 --> 00:41:44,949
因为 capex 太疯狂了

1258
00:41:44,949 --> 00:41:45,269
没错

1259
00:41:45,269 --> 00:41:48,849
但显然扎克伯格多年来出色管理了公司

1260
00:41:48,849 --> 00:41:50,519
增长率惊人

1261
00:41:50,519 --> 00:41:52,539
估值并不差

1262
00:41:52,539 --> 00:41:55,159
我们可以讨论真实的未来市盈率

1263
00:41:55,159 --> 00:41:56,239
两年期未来市盈率

1264
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,320
五年期未来市盈率

1265
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:00,570
毕竟这是有争议的

1266
00:42:00,570 --> 00:42:02,349
我们不清楚 capex 的支出多少

1267
00:42:02,349 --> 00:42:06,579
也不清楚当前增长率是否可持续

1268
00:42:06,579 --> 00:42:09,739
但核心是这是一项长期获利机器

1269
00:42:09,739 --> 00:42:12,659
我今天买了些股份

1270
00:42:12,659 --> 00:42:13,760
接下来这一项

1271
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:18,829
美国运通买入二十股美国运通，支付三百二十二美元

1272
00:42:18,829 --> 00:42:20,150
美国运通极具吸引力

1273
00:42:20,150 --> 00:42:20,650
估值

1274
00:42:20,650 --> 00:42:21,989
顶级商业模式

1275
00:42:21,989 --> 00:42:22,590
作为公司

1276
00:42:22,590 --> 00:42:24,829
任何时候都可以安心买入

1277
00:42:24,829 --> 00:42:26,130
Celsius Holdings

1278
00:42:26,130 --> 00:42:26,630
呃

1279
00:42:26,630 --> 00:42:27,829
今天约三百股

1280
00:42:27,829 --> 00:42:28,789
每股三三

1281
00:42:28,789 --> 00:42:30,349
所以 Celsius

1282
00:42:30,349 --> 00:42:31,710
股票被严重打压

1283
00:42:31,710 --> 00:42:34,269
当前价格极具吸引力

1284
00:42:34,269 --> 00:42:36,070
在二十几时更吸引

1285
00:42:36,070 --> 00:42:37,590
但我不押注这个

1286
00:42:37,590 --> 00:42:39,030
我要在二十几时入手

1287
00:42:39,030 --> 00:42:40,670
所以啊

1288
00:42:40,670 --> 00:42:41,710
Cheesecake Factory

1289
00:42:41,710 --> 00:42:42,989
他们公布了强劲财报

1290
00:42:42,989 --> 00:42:45,110
股价本应今天上涨更多

1291
00:42:45,110 --> 00:42:47,190
该股可能应涨至六十七

1292
00:42:47,190 --> 00:42:47,929
六十八

1293
00:42:47,929 --> 00:42:50,135
或许今天这里

1294
00:42:50,539 --> 00:42:53,119
Flower Child 的数据同样最亮眼

1295
00:42:53,119 --> 00:42:55,309
他们非常专注于北意大利市场

1296
00:42:55,309 --> 00:42:58,829
并让这些业绩指标重回正轨

1297
00:42:58,829 --> 00:43:02,510
同时也在规划午餐业务并扩展北部市场布局

1298
00:43:02,510 --> 00:43:05,389
我对芝士蛋糕工厂的电话会议内容很认同

1299
00:43:05,389 --> 00:43:09,340
显然芝士蛋糕工厂餐厅概念本身

1300
00:43:09,340 --> 00:43:10,159
你知道的

1301
00:43:10,159 --> 00:43:11,280
创造了惊人业绩

1302
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:12,099
他们提到

1303
00:43:12,099 --> 00:43:12,599
他们刚刚开业

1304
00:43:12,599 --> 00:43:14,079
我想是亨利最近

1305
00:43:14,079 --> 00:43:16,760
他们提到约1400万美元

1306
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:18,289
你知道的

1307
00:43:18,530 --> 00:43:20,750
该地点的UVs表现突出

1308
00:43:20,750 --> 00:43:23,090
总之这次电话会议非常出色

1309
00:43:23,090 --> 00:43:25,230
请收听千禧股票网的电话会议

1310
00:43:25,230 --> 00:43:27,028
你会喜欢他们的服务

1311
00:43:27,028 --> 00:43:28,628
这些讨论持续被市场碾压

1312
00:43:28,628 --> 00:43:30,648
今日以87美元买入百股

1313
00:43:30,648 --> 00:43:32,009
首先是服务现在

1314
00:43:32,009 --> 00:43:32,889
你知道的

1315
00:43:32,889 --> 00:43:33,670
是的

1316
00:43:33,670 --> 00:43:37,139
我认为ServiceNow和Salesforce是我最爱的两家

1317
00:43:37,139 --> 00:43:39,219
我也看好Adobe这家公司

1318
00:43:39,219 --> 00:43:41,719
这三家公司才是真正的SaaS核心标的

1319
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:42,400
我乐于投资

1320
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:43,028
不过

1321
00:43:43,028 --> 00:43:44,789
至少目前耐克

1322
00:43:44,789 --> 00:43:48,429
NK以200股买入耐克股票

1323
00:43:48,429 --> 00:43:51,340
我认为耐克股价将重回百元以上

1324
00:43:51,340 --> 00:43:52,519
不会一蹴而就

1325
00:43:52,519 --> 00:43:53,820
但会是

1326
00:43:53,820 --> 00:43:54,440
你知道的

1327
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,420
未来几年的长期博弈

1328
00:43:56,420 --> 00:44:00,480
Salesforce今日以176美元买入20股

1329
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:01,619
然后是Elf on a Shelf

1330
00:44:01,619 --> 00:44:02,659
我买入200股

1331
00:44:02,659 --> 00:44:04,429
63.63美元

1332
00:44:04,429 --> 00:44:05,309
看来很幸运

1333
00:44:05,309 --> 00:44:06,128
对吧

1334
00:44:06,128 --> 00:44:07,329
Elf的买入堪称绝佳

1335
00:44:07,329 --> 00:44:08,009
优质公司

1336
00:44:08,009 --> 00:44:09,590
期待他们的财报

1337
00:44:09,590 --> 00:44:11,309
这些公司

1338
00:44:11,309 --> 00:44:12,369
这些行业公司

1339
00:44:12,369 --> 00:44:13,610
只需专注长期

1340
00:44:13,610 --> 00:44:13,829
没错

1341
00:44:13,829 --> 00:44:14,730
短期波动难免

1342
00:44:14,730 --> 00:44:16,070
杂事

1343
00:44:16,070 --> 00:44:16,429
就像

1344
00:44:16,429 --> 00:44:17,610
哦你知道的

1345
00:44:17,610 --> 00:44:19,570
我们看到科技行业员工正在被裁员

1346
00:44:19,570 --> 00:44:20,550
所以你知道的

1347
00:44:20,550 --> 00:44:22,980
一些美国运通的客户

1348
00:44:22,980 --> 00:44:24,679
可能并不处于最佳状态

1349
00:44:24,679 --> 00:44:25,300
还有Meta

1350
00:44:25,300 --> 00:44:26,659
这是Cap X撰写的关于 Celsius 的文章

1351
00:44:26,659 --> 00:44:27,179
就像

1352
00:44:27,179 --> 00:44:27,360
哦

1353
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:27,780
好市多

1354
00:44:27,780 --> 00:44:30,659
推出了一款山寨能量饮料

1355
00:44:30,659 --> 00:44:34,759
所以这些股票可能都有些荒谬的事情

1356
00:44:34,759 --> 00:44:35,378
你知道的

1357
00:44:35,378 --> 00:44:36,619
保持长期专注

1358
00:44:36,619 --> 00:44:36,998
好的

1359
00:44:36,998 --> 00:44:38,398
感谢大家一如既往地加入我

1360
00:44:38,398 --> 00:44:39,619
再次感谢大家的到来

1361
00:44:39,619 --> 00:44:41,460
如果你想加入我的私密社群

1362
00:44:41,460 --> 00:44:42,940
想要将投资提升到更高水平

1363
00:44:42,940 --> 00:44:44,840
获取所有我的付费课程

1364
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,280
比如成为股票市场大师

1365
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:46,699
百万富翁

1366
00:44:46,699 --> 00:44:47,250
实战手册

1367
00:44:47,250 --> 00:44:47,889
股票期权

1368
00:44:47,889 --> 00:44:48,329
精通

1369
00:44:48,329 --> 00:44:49,170
股息投资精通

1370
00:44:49,170 --> 00:44:49,889
财务报表分析

1371
00:44:49,889 --> 00:44:50,369
精通

1372
00:44:50,369 --> 00:44:52,019
杰里米的估值精通

1373
00:44:52,019 --> 00:44:53,739
那里会有一个钉子形评论

1374
00:44:53,739 --> 00:44:55,440
点击申请加入我们

1375
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:56,800
还能获得千倍收益

1376
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,059
加入Discord聊天室

1377
00:44:58,059 --> 00:45:00,000
所有独家周更视频

1378
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,780
我们将寄送你的钢制会员卡

1379
00:45:01,780 --> 00:45:03,059
我在视频中展示过

1380
00:45:03,059 --> 00:45:05,039
我们会寄送到你家

1381
00:45:05,039 --> 00:45:06,579
祝你一切顺利，度过美好一天

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