【NaNa说美股】20260520被达子气的一口老血喷出来了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月20号周三

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国际原油期货市场再次被川普的一句话给击穿

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早盘时间美国能源信息署公布的数据显示呢

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美国上周原油总库存创纪录暴跌

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1780万桶

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远超市场预期

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哈迪加美国原油出口升到历史高位

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一度引发市场对全球原油供应进一步紧缺担忧

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呃

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所以这个数据公布之后

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国际原油呢短线收窄了早盘跌幅

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但是仅仅数5分钟之后

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哈川普就放话称

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美伊谈判已经进入最终阶段

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与此同时

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媒体报道称

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部分邮轮已开始重新通过霍尔木兹海峡

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原有的战争

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一家立即就迅速回吐呃

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跌幅急剧扩大

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WTI原油期货跌破了100美元每桶

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这个创近两周最大单日跌幅

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还有据阿拉伯这个电视台报道

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每一协议文本已经进入了最后润色阶段

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谈判机制仍将延续

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下一轮磋商已计划在朝觐季结束

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也就是5月31号之后

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与巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行

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另外呢

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伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军也称

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过去24小时内

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包括邮轮

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集装箱船

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还有其他商船在内的26艘船

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在与伊朗的协调之下

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通过了霍尔木兹海峡

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此外英国韩运媒体援引最终数据称

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在5月11号到17号之间

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至少有54艘船穿越了霍尔木兹海峡

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前一周还只有25艘

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所以这些最新的航运消息

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击中了此前支撑着油价暴涨的核心逻辑

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呃

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就是霍尔木兹海峡可能会长期关闭市场呢

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交易逻辑迅速扭转哈

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现在开始重新定价

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冲突缓和与这个海峡恢复通航的可能性

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如今的原有市场啊已经成为了一个高度政治化

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情绪化的地缘风险市场

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而不再是供需市场了哈

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决定油价翻向的不是库存数据本身

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而是川普的每一句话

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任何有关霍尔木兹海峡

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恢复伊朗谈判推进的消息

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都可能会导致市场情绪的急转弯

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随着油价回落

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通胀压力短期缓解

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美债收益率也顺势走低

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深圳基本收益率今天从4.7%

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大幅下滑到4.6%以下嗯

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这个走势与油价的下跌同步发生

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成为美股从近期低点反弹的重要催化剂

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美股三大指数今天集体走强

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除了石油与折扣电板块之外

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市场其他的板块全线大涨

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先来盘后嗯

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宇宙中心英伟达已经公布了财报

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公司2027财年Q1财季

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营收八百十六亿美元

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同比增长85%

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其中数据中心业务收入呢为752亿美元

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同比增长92%

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超大规模云服务

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三就是那几个科技巨头

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他们的收入占比大约是一半

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净利润583亿美元

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调整后每股收益1.87美元

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同比大增140%

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数据非常的好看哈

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展望未来

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公司预计Q2营收九百十亿美元

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VRRUBIN将会按计划

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在今年第三季度开始交付给客户嗯

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可以说业绩与指引了全面超出市场预期

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而且公司董事会还追加了

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800亿美元的股票回购

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并且将季度股息推高到每股25美分嗯

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但是这盘后股价反应似乎很犹豫哈

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暂时小跌

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以过去几次的经验来说

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盘后的波动不重要

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重要的是明天周四盘中的走势

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期权市场暗示

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明天英伟达的股价可能会出现

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大约6.5%左右的涨跌浮动

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这显示出交易员们对这个明天走势结果

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高度不确定性

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只要胆子

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明天盘中不要大跌就行哈

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其实小涨小跌都无所谓的

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QQ今天反弹

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这条蓝色的上升趋势线被跌破之后呢

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已经从原来支撑转变为阻力

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今天的反弹刚好触及该趋势线下轨

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这个下方的成交量

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在近期下跌与反弹中呢相对平稳

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没有出现极端放量

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这说明多空双方都在等待今天盘后的重大事件

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市场观望情绪浓厚

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如果没有极强利好催化

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那受阻于这条趋势线

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QQ大概率会顺着阻力位再次下探

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寻找下方平台支撑

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只有英伟达财报引爆市场情绪

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并且呢能够在明天保持强势

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至少不可以大跌

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那QQ才能够以跳空高开或者大阳线的方式

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强行收回这条趋势线内部嗯

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但是由于这趋势线的角度实在是过于陡峭

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而且维持也挺长时间了

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所以这个继续维持这种斜率的上涨

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本身难度很大的

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哈费城半导体指数呢今天大涨4.5%

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并且将会于5月23号到28号

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就初步薪酬方案进行投票

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韩国劳动部长表示

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工会与三星电子在利润分配上达成共识

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这消息缓解了市场对存储芯片供应中断的担忧

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半导体板块也全线反弹

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其中CPU3巨头arm AMD和英特尔集体大涨

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其中arm的股价涨超15%

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突破了近期高点240美元

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再创新高

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随着AI从大模型推理迈向智能体阶段

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华尔街对CPU市场前景普遍持乐观态度

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花旗预计

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售代理式AI应用需求激增

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推动服务器CPU市场规模

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有望从2025年的293亿美元

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年增长35%

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到2030年达到一千三百十五亿美元

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并且呢

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将英特尔AAMD的目标股价

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都分别上调到130美元和460美元

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其他个股方面

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油价的大幅回落

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推动了邮轮航空公司今天暴力反弹

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达美航空股价飙升10%

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日K售出了一根超级长阳线

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抹去了过去十个交易日的跌幅哈

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再次回到了历史前高附近

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这很厉害哈

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这个拉的就好像过去几个月油价没有涨过一样

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挪威邮轮呢也难得应了一次

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股价今天大涨超8%

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至4月中旬以来

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它的股价就跌跌不休

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累计回撤了约35%

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除了染料成本拖累利润率之外

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那个汉坦病毒也影响了邮轮的预订量

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三大邮轮中挪威邮轮的基本面最为脆弱

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管理层执行能力呢也不如另外两个出色

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所以即使想要搏短线反弹

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我觉得也应该尽量选择另外两个

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其他的对油价敏感的物流公司

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或者对利率敏感的金融股

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今天也都多数反弹哈

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呃比如像高盛今天涨得就非常的不错

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但是资金最热捧的呢还是AI硬件嗯

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零售商target

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今天盘前公布的2026财年第一季度财

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这个财报表现强劲

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营收与盈利双双超预期

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并且上调全年营收增长预测

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在经历了疫情后连续3年的营收下滑之后

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target的转型努力呢正开始收获回报

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新CEO上任后的首个完整财报季

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表现获得了华尔街的认可

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多家机构随即上调了目标价

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但是嗯尽管业绩亮眼

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股价仍然季后下跌

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部分机构仍持谨慎态度

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比如美银重申对该股的跑数大盘评级

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警告称退税利好效应可能消退

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汽油价格维持高位以及通胀压力

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可能在下半年拖累非必需消费品

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而另一家机构则表示

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投资者将评估这个一季度的改善是可持续的

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还是收短基因所推动

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对该股呢仍维持持有评级

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明天盘前

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另一家零售巨头沃尔玛将会公布财报

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作为美国最大的零售商

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届时他的财报将会提供

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更多有关消费者健康状况的细节

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以及高企的汽油价格

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对美国家庭消费支出影响

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公司已经连续19个季度营收超出分析师预期

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在过去十个季度中呢

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有八个季度的每股收益都超出预期

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我还是比较看好沃尔玛

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这次财报能够同样可以超越其它

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这会让营收总额膨胀

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而且很多消费者会寻找高性价比的商品

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就是所谓的消费降级

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那沃尔玛会吸引更多的客户

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扩大它的市场份额

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还有关税退还呢

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也可以反映到他的资产负债表上

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至于这个股价季后反应哈

213
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,620
我还是更倾向于看涨

214
00:09:26,620 --> 00:09:28,799
核电板块集体狂飙

215
00:09:28,799 --> 00:09:31,179
近期美债收益率的持续攀升

216
00:09:31,179 --> 00:09:33,500
让这个板块承受了很大的压力

217
00:09:33,500 --> 00:09:35,419
所以今天收益率回落

218
00:09:35,419 --> 00:09:38,200
壳电股的反弹也是非常的剧烈

219
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,659
空头回补与逢低买入共同推动了该板块大涨

220
00:09:42,659 --> 00:09:43,159
另外呢

221
00:09:43,159 --> 00:09:46,370
美国历史上规模最大的公用事业收购案

222
00:09:46,370 --> 00:09:48,490
就是新纪元能源

223
00:09:48,490 --> 00:09:52,769
以670亿美元收购竞争对手道明尼能源

224
00:09:52,769 --> 00:09:53,730
的交易

225
00:09:53,730 --> 00:09:56,850
也让这个电力题材炒作进一步升温

226
00:09:56,850 --> 00:10:00,850
嗯存储光模块已经炒了几个月时间了哈

227
00:10:00,850 --> 00:10:04,919
而电力板块刚刚完成了前期暴涨后的调整

228
00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:09,379
所以就有部分热钱又开始炒作电力供应短缺了

229
00:10:09,379 --> 00:10:12,740
像n n e o clue这些PPT电力股

230
00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:14,289
股价弹性最大

231
00:10:14,289 --> 00:10:16,590
而TALNCEG

232
00:10:16,590 --> 00:10:20,450
VST等这些公用事业电力股的基本面最稳健

233
00:10:20,450 --> 00:10:22,328
现金流确定性最强

234
00:10:22,328 --> 00:10:24,568
VST股价连续数日下跌之后

235
00:10:24,568 --> 00:10:25,989
今天跳空高开

236
00:10:25,989 --> 00:10:27,740
站上了5日均线

237
00:10:27,740 --> 00:10:29,259
盘中持续走高

238
00:10:29,259 --> 00:10:30,860
日K收出一根中阳线

239
00:10:30,860 --> 00:10:32,259
业绩是没有问题的

240
00:10:32,259 --> 00:10:33,500
134美元

241
00:10:33,500 --> 00:10:38,340
其实以下都是非常具有吸引力的建仓区间

242
00:10:38,340 --> 00:10:40,679
即便今天这个大涨之后

243
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,309
也仍处于基本面承载的公允价值区间哈

244
00:10:44,309 --> 00:10:47,149
如果美债收益率能够持续回落的话

245
00:10:47,149 --> 00:10:49,389
那股价也有望同步走高

246
00:10:49,389 --> 00:10:52,870
拉出一波嗯可观的反弹行情

247
00:10:52,870 --> 00:10:55,370
但是呢这个股票是比较磨人的

248
00:10:55,370 --> 00:10:56,549
公用事业股

249
00:10:56,549 --> 00:10:59,809
我不可能像那些妖股那样子随便爆炒

250
00:10:59,809 --> 00:11:02,860
所以呢持股待涨需要一些耐心哈

251
00:11:02,860 --> 00:11:07,139
AI数据中心互联巨头阿STELLIS大涨超10%

252
00:11:07,139 --> 00:11:09,970
7年内涨幅已经达到约73%

253
00:11:09,970 --> 00:11:12,409
只要远超标普500指数的回报率

254
00:11:12,409 --> 00:11:16,440
加拿大皇家银行维持其跑赢大盘的评级

255
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,519
并且将目标价上调到250美元

256
00:11:19,519 --> 00:11:20,480
预计该公司呢

257
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,039
将会从亚马逊TRAINEM3的部署中受益

258
00:11:24,039 --> 00:11:26,159
不过分析师同时警告称

259
00:11:26,159 --> 00:11:27,879
AI资本支出放缓啦

260
00:11:27,879 --> 00:11:30,919
与亚马逊相关的认股权证交易

261
00:11:30,919 --> 00:11:32,639
及阿斯特瓦拉普四额

262
00:11:32,639 --> 00:11:35,700
这个高达72倍的远期市盈率

263
00:11:35,700 --> 00:11:37,799
估值还仍然是关键风险因素

264
00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:41,200
虽然市场对它的长期增长前景依然看好

265
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,039
玩具制造商海之宝披露了业绩

266
00:11:44,039 --> 00:11:48,889
受威士忌品牌与数字游戏业务持续热销拉动

267
00:11:48,889 --> 00:11:51,389
公司一季度营收大涨13%

268
00:11:51,389 --> 00:11:52,669
突破了10亿美元

269
00:11:52,669 --> 00:11:54,750
净利润达到约2亿美元

270
00:11:56,470 --> 00:11:59,019
而且都远好于市场的预期

271
00:11:59,019 --> 00:12:02,620
但是旗下消费品业务营收呢停滞不前

272
00:12:02,620 --> 00:12:05,419
娱乐业务营收同比下滑24%

273
00:12:05,419 --> 00:12:09,120
而且公司也没有因为这个强劲的Q1业绩表现

274
00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,460
就上调全年营收指引

275
00:12:11,460 --> 00:12:13,360
导致投资者失望

276
00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,669
股价呢因此季后下跌

277
00:12:15,669 --> 00:12:18,149
INTU财结盘后公布

278
00:12:18,149 --> 00:12:20,740
2026财年第三财季业绩

279
00:12:20,740 --> 00:12:22,620
营收85.6亿美元

280
00:12:22,620 --> 00:12:23,840
同比增长10%

281
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:24,980
略好于预期

282
00:12:24,980 --> 00:12:27,549
调整后每股收益12.8美元

283
00:12:27,549 --> 00:12:29,549
高于预期的12.6美元

284
00:12:29,549 --> 00:12:32,899
公司还上调了全年营收与盈利指引

285
00:12:32,899 --> 00:12:35,080
公司董事会批准了一项新的

286
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,629
80亿股票的回购计划

287
00:12:37,629 --> 00:12:39,470
结果股价盘后暴跌哈

288
00:12:39,470 --> 00:12:40,870
这真的让人看不懂了

289
00:12:40,870 --> 00:12:43,909
不知道是不是和公司宣布裁员有关系

290
00:12:43,909 --> 00:12:47,750
呃明天可能要把整个软件板块给带崩了

291
00:12:47,750 --> 00:12:51,230
如果明天软件板块软趴趴的话

292
00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:56,289
那呃只能指望AI硬件可以啊托市

293
00:12:56,289 --> 00:12:59,639
所以只要英伟达不要崩

294
00:12:59,639 --> 00:13:00,799
不要大跌哈

295
00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:04,480
那我觉得AI硬件板块应该问题不大的行

296
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:05,940
今天我们就说到这里

297
00:13:05,940 --> 00:13:07,480
那我们明天见拜拜

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