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各位交易员大家好
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现在是美国东部时间5月20号礼拜三的早上
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10.55分
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现在看到的是TLT美国20年期国债的ETF
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刚才啊在一小时级别出现了这样的一根大阳线
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而且呢这不是第一次反转呃
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我们看稍微大一点
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这样子跌下来以后呢
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诶这是第一次反转
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回调低点抬高
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第二次反转又有这么好的大阳线
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所以我在这个时候啊入场买入了
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我刚才是买入了594张看涨期权
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我们再买六张好了诶
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好的
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买了六张
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现在的话凑了一个整
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看一下成交时间啊
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呃刚才这六张是10:56分几秒钟前买的
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但是呢刚才的594张
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大家看成交时间10.49分
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10:50分嗯
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就是在这一根一小时K线啊
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刚才上涨的过程中
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突破前面这个信号K高点的过程中
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买入的止损呢就放在它的底部就可以了
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如果价格往下跌破的话呢
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我就把我这些看涨期权卖掉
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像这样的波段交易啊
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哇现在还在涨
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非常不错
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这样强势的两根大阳线出现以后
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市场进入了always in long
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不管用什么理由买入做多就对了啊
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然后每当有重要的低点出现以后
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你就把止损往上抬高
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就可以通过这样的方式呢
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去尽可能持有更久的时间
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抓到更大的波段
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看一下现在赚多少钱了
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现在已经是0.46了
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买入的平均成本是33块钱
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每张合约呃
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这个加仓的六手是42块钱
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但是前面都是三十二三十四
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我买的很急啊
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我全都是按ask成交的
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我没有去等
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因为这么强势的突破的话
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我觉得没有必要等
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直接每张合约一美金的这个点差付就付了啊
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并不是特别重要
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赶上突破
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确保订单成交才比较的重要
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TLT国债我们讲过很多次了
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甚至上一个视频美光科技的节目里面
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我还谈到了美元国债的重要性
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我认为作为交易者来说啊
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你一定要去关注它
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大家经常在网上调侃嘛
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说trump是新的股神啊
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真正的股神人家都是分析K线
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他是自己画K线
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当然这个是调侃
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我能够理解我自己的性格
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平时也喜欢啊
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有一些搞怪
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但是我们作为一个硬核的金融博主呢
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我还是想跟大家讲
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股票实际上它没有那么重要
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相比美元美债来说
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股票根本不重要
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美联储
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他在做决定的时候
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他一定是去关注美债市场
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而不是首先去考虑股票
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有的交易者可能说我的账户很小
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我想快速赚钱
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长期的美债
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哪怕是5%的收益率
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我觉得跟我也没有太大关系
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所以就不了解了
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不是这样子的美元啊
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你想赚钱的话
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怎么能不了解他呢
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所以不是让你真的去投资美债
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而是你要关注它
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去了解它
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尤其是有重大事情发生的时候
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更加要去关注美元的动向
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掌握了这一点
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你就更加接近事情的本质
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而不会被什么市场的波动也好
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消息也好给干扰
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所以我们就按照一小时去持有
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比如说补缺口对不对
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把这个跳空缺口补掉
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或者说这两根大阳线
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后面可能有第三第四根大阳线
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那如果至少现在两根大阳线的话
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是不是有一个measure move
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把他们的这个高度往上翻一倍
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那后面又有一根大阳线呢
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诶把这三根大阳线的高度往上翻一倍
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可以这样的去调整你的目标
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我们现在的话就一直持有哦
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哇哦刚才突然一下子暴涨了
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我都关掉录制了
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我现在重新打开录制一下
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看一下5分钟嗯
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刚才反正一下子加速上涨哇
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已经是几乎翻倍了
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已经赚了1万7000美金了
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那我们是什么时候开仓的呢
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我们是呃10:50分左右
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现在11:19分啊
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时间才过去半个小时
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半个小时有这么多利润
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非常的不错
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但是呢耐心持有啊
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坚定持有哇
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半个小时这张期权已经翻倍了
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利润来到了2万多美金
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我是不是买少了呀
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大家都知道啊
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我每一笔交易哎怎么会跳到这里
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每一笔交易我都严格的控制成本啊
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控制亏损最多承担多少风险啊
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也跟大家讲过
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所以即使是这么好的机会啊
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哎我也没有说要去重仓啊
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或者怎么样大阳线
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但是有一点点上影线
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这个呢嗯确实是有一部分止盈
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但是我们目前没有管它
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仍然是上涨趋势
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条件仍然成立的话呢
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就继续持有
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看利润的话
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刚才好像是赚2万美金了
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现在回撤了不少啊
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回撤了4000美金
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还是那句话
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我之前也讲过
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首先你是要用不那么在乎的仓位进行交易
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不管是止损也好
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还是利润回撤也好
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你没有那么在乎
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这样呢能够帮助你更好的做到坚定持有
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第二个
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如果你确实在乎呢
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把它关掉
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那就直接不要去看它
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If you moments later
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大家好
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现在是中午12:30
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从5分钟的呃K线图来看呢
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它现在回调到了EMA20
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我现在呢想要盈利稍微加一点点仓
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因为我们的入场是我们在这个啊
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这根大阳线往上突破的时候
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买入的有一定的距离
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没有那么近
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然后现在回调到均线啊
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我觉得是一个好的买入机会
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我们少加一点嘛啊
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加99手
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意思一下
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哎好成交了
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在56块钱买入了99手合约
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现在总的仓位来到了699
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第一个是距离初始入场位置啊
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已经非常远
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初始入场价格都是32
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34
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我在56加仓啊
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所以是离开很远的距离
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第二个加仓的数量也非常的少
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从一小时图上我们可以看到
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他正好大约是从83开始涨起来的
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涨到八十四这个整数位呀
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遇到了压力
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现在有一些回调
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我的目标是85啊
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因为83~84到85
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正好是一个measure move
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然后呢嗯85附近啊
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也是把这个跳空缺口给补掉
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同时他也是一个重要的整数位
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任何事情都有可能发生
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尤其是现在这种嗯有新闻有事件驱动的时候
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可能这个突破是假的
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就涨一下
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然后又跌回来
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完全有可能
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如果他真的一根阴线
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两根阴线
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三根阴线
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那么也许我们不得不离开啊
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可能最后甚至都没赚什么钱
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但是呢目前我是抱着这样的希望啊
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去鼓励自己
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去坚定持有
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哦不对
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各位现在是01:52分啊
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再过8分钟
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美联储公布会议纪要呃
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我不想在这个时候持有国债的东西啊
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我之前没有看到
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所以我们现在得离场了
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现在得离场
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不管是什么价格
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今天这张期权的成交量是1万2700多
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那就0.58呗
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0.58也可以啊
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好0.581下子全部成交699
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他的这个流动性还是可以的
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离场的原因一个是马上有美联储会议纪要嗯
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一个是大家看它的价格行为确实不算很弱
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但是呢嗯本应该可以更强
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大家看一小时在这么大的大阳线之后
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没有跟随啊
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一直没有跟随
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进入一个很窄的震荡区间
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而且我做的是期权嘛
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我不想在这里跟他损耗啊
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如果有机会的话
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我用呃这个国债期货去做会更加合适一些
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所以总之这笔交易最后只赚了1万5000美金
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最多的时候好像赚了2万1000
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这样子利润回撤了五千六千美金嗯
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还可以了
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应该满足对吧
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但是本可以更好啊
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本可以更好
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大家看刚才59美金是成交不了的
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00:08:16,488 --> 00:08:18,689
我必须用58美金去成交
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00:08:18,689 --> 00:08:21,300
这里面就是一块钱的点差
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00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:24,288
然后我开仓的时候也是有一块钱的点差
240
00:08:24,288 --> 00:08:26,889
所以699手合约开仓
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00:08:26,889 --> 00:08:28,809
平仓各一块钱的点差
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00:08:28,809 --> 00:08:30,369
今天啊在点差上面
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00:08:30,369 --> 00:08:32,839
我就支付了将近1400美元
244
00:08:32,839 --> 00:08:34,639
这个就是交易的成本啊
245
00:08:34,639 --> 00:08:35,818
就像做生意一样
246
00:08:35,818 --> 00:08:37,519
有一个成本
247
00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,399
也许正是会议纪要的原因啊
248
00:08:40,399 --> 00:08:42,309
所以嗯很多机构
249
00:08:42,309 --> 00:08:44,750
很多交易者不愿意在这个地方去追涨
250
00:08:44,750 --> 00:08:45,669
去冒险啊
251
00:08:45,669 --> 00:08:47,539
市场进入了一个横盘
252
00:08:47,539 --> 00:08:51,059
看来现在美债确实不太受欢迎呃
253
00:08:51,059 --> 00:08:55,980
没有太多的机构或者是国家愿意去买入
254
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尽管收益率已经非常不错
255
00:08:58,379 --> 00:09:02,259
原油价格毕竟在高位很久啊
256
00:09:02,259 --> 00:09:07,950
它对通胀的影响呢不是短时间内就会消失的
257
00:09:07,950 --> 00:09:09,970
所以即使不打仗了
258
00:09:09,970 --> 00:09:12,600
即使那个海峡也完全通行了
259
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:16,259
大家对通胀的担忧呢还是会持续一段时间
260
00:09:16,259 --> 00:09:18,399
这个会议纪要应该已经公布了
261
00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:20,909
但是市场没有太大的波动
262
00:09:20,909 --> 00:09:23,519
说明无人在意啊
263
00:09:23,519 --> 00:09:27,940
或者说会议纪要也没有出什么重要的东西啊
264
00:09:27,940 --> 00:09:31,509
股指期货这边也没有什么嗯
265
00:09:31,509 --> 00:09:33,019
应该就这样嗯
266
00:09:33,019 --> 00:09:36,639
那美国国债呢它不只是在美盘的时间段有交易
267
00:09:36,639 --> 00:09:39,759
它在亚洲欧洲啊都有非常多的交易啊
268
00:09:39,759 --> 00:09:42,769
因为很多比如说像日本啊
269
00:09:42,769 --> 00:09:46,710
呃欧洲啊很多机构或者国家政府呢
270
00:09:46,710 --> 00:09:48,870
他们都会交易美国国债
271
00:09:48,870 --> 00:09:53,649
所以如果大家看这个TLT他是一个国债的ETF
272
00:09:53,649 --> 00:09:55,090
如果看他的日K线的话
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你会发现有很多很大的跳空缺口
274
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所以呢如果要连贯一些嗯
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你想更好的做到防止风险呢
276
00:10:04,940 --> 00:10:07,279
最好是用国债期货去做
277
00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:09,769
他一天是交易23个小时
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00:10:09,769 --> 00:10:13,090
这个ETF呢更适合你直接啊买入啊
279
00:10:13,090 --> 00:10:14,850
就像买股票一样直接买入
280
00:10:14,850 --> 00:10:17,590
然后做长期持有他的分红啊
281
00:10:17,590 --> 00:10:18,570
比较不错
282
00:10:18,570 --> 00:10:21,830
大家看他是每个月有分红啊
283
00:10:21,830 --> 00:10:23,480
说到这个额
284
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,500
我记得之前做TLT的时候
285
00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:26,460
就有观众留言说
286
00:10:26,460 --> 00:10:29,399
为什么你这个日K线的图的价格
287
00:10:29,399 --> 00:10:30,799
跟我的价格不一样啊
288
00:10:30,799 --> 00:10:33,399
因为他每次分红之后呢
289
00:10:33,399 --> 00:10:34,679
你要给他付权
290
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:35,419
对不对
291
00:10:35,419 --> 00:10:39,299
就是按这里右下角的这个ADJ啊
292
00:10:39,299 --> 00:10:42,019
他这里写的是adjust data for dividends
293
00:10:42,019 --> 00:10:44,899
就是根据分红啊来调整这个数据
294
00:10:44,899 --> 00:10:47,059
如果是一个中文的看盘软件的话
295
00:10:47,059 --> 00:10:49,220
它可能叫钱付权之类的
296
00:10:49,220 --> 00:10:50,860
你需要去设置一下
297
00:10:50,860 --> 00:10:53,139
它到了80附近的话呢
298
00:10:53,139 --> 00:10:56,460
是可以考虑去做一个呃长期投资的
299
00:10:56,460 --> 00:10:57,960
是一个很不错的标的
300
00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,000
我也是在等它跌到80
301
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,989
但是呃今天直接就出信号了
302
00:11:02,989 --> 00:11:06,528
今天83块多直接出了很好的做多信号
303
00:11:06,528 --> 00:11:07,669
很强的突破
304
00:11:07,669 --> 00:11:10,899
所以呢买入了做了一笔短线交易呃
305
00:11:10,899 --> 00:11:11,980
长期投资的话呢
306
00:11:11,980 --> 00:11:13,000
可以再等一等
307
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,399
或者你现在买一点点啊
308
00:11:15,399 --> 00:11:17,370
分批入场都是可以的
309
00:11:17,370 --> 00:11:17,970
好啦
310
00:11:17,970 --> 00:11:19,450
那这笔交易就讲到这里
311
00:11:19,450 --> 00:11:21,529
美国国债和美光科技
312
00:11:21,529 --> 00:11:24,289
这两笔交易我就放在一起了
313
00:11:24,289 --> 00:11:27,190
因为美光科技后半部分说实话就平仓
314
00:11:27,190 --> 00:11:28,129
然后总结一下
315
00:11:28,129 --> 00:11:29,360
没有讲太多内容
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00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:30,480
加上这个呢
317
00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,750
这一期视频就有更多内容给大家看好
318
00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:35,669
希望我的分享对大家有帮助
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00:11:35,669 --> 00:11:38,090
我们下一期节目再见拜拜
320
00:11:38,090 --> 00:11:40,289
接下来是上一笔交易
321
00:11:40,289 --> 00:11:41,870
美光科技的后续
322
00:11:41,870 --> 00:11:44,529
我做了一个价差的期权组合
323
00:11:44,529 --> 00:11:48,389
请先确保你完全理解了上期节目里所说的东西
324
00:11:48,389 --> 00:11:51,210
然后再观看接下来的内容
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00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:53,299
各位交易员大家好
326
00:11:53,299 --> 00:11:56,259
现在是美国东部时间5月19号
327
00:11:56,259 --> 00:11:58,710
礼拜二的下午02:17分
328
00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:00,769
美光科技这支股票啊
329
00:12:00,769 --> 00:12:05,599
今天从最低点上涨了10%一点几
330
00:12:05,599 --> 00:12:09,119
虽然它和我们卖出cosplay的价格之间
331
00:12:09,119 --> 00:12:10,639
还是有一定的距离
332
00:12:10,639 --> 00:12:13,659
但是呢它的波动实在是太大了
333
00:12:13,659 --> 00:12:16,740
它能够在两三天里面跌那么多
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00:12:16,740 --> 00:12:20,659
就完全有可能两三天里面再涨那么多
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00:12:20,659 --> 00:12:22,480
随着到期日越来越近
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00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,360
我们没有必要去承担这样的gamma risk
337
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所以呢我现在要去止盈了
338
00:12:27,649 --> 00:12:30,250
大家看到这边的day change
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00:12:31,700 --> 00:12:35,860
嗯当日易损意思就是我的这些仓位啊
340
00:12:35,860 --> 00:12:37,960
相比于昨天收盘的时候
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00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,740
利润回撤了2600多美金
342
00:12:40,740 --> 00:12:42,539
现在呢只剩1万美金左右
343
00:12:42,539 --> 00:12:44,340
他这个没有那么准确
344
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因为这些期权流动性没那么好
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不是一直在成交
346
00:12:48,980 --> 00:12:50,600
价格没有那么快刷新
347
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:51,840
但是呢差不多啊
348
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,159
如果我赚满呢
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是可以赚1万7000美金
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现在离场的大概赚1万美金不到一点
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00:12:57,919 --> 00:12:59,059
大约是这样子
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我们上期节目就讲过
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00:13:00,690 --> 00:13:02,490
教科书里面讲的是什么
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00:13:02,490 --> 00:13:05,309
如果你已经赚了50%到70
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就可以只赢了
356
00:13:06,529 --> 00:13:07,629
所以现在离场
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00:13:07,629 --> 00:13:10,820
从数学上来说也是完全合理的
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好全部成交了
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00:13:11,980 --> 00:13:15,049
我们来看一下具体成交的价格
360
00:13:15,049 --> 00:13:19,330
首先第一组开仓是5月13号获得的
361
00:13:19,330 --> 00:13:21,250
价差是61.74
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00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:24,190
减52.74等于九
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00:13:24,190 --> 00:13:29,070
然后是今天5月19号平仓的价差是8.26
364
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减5.75
365
00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:31,528
等于2.59
366
00:13:31,528 --> 00:13:33,969
减2.5等于650美金
367
00:13:33,969 --> 00:13:35,168
一共九组嘛啊
368
00:13:35,168 --> 00:13:37,668
所以我一共是赚了9×650
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00:13:37,668 --> 00:13:38,970
这是第一组
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00:13:38,970 --> 00:13:39,690
第二组
371
00:13:39,690 --> 00:13:43,629
5月14号盈利加仓价差是74.5
372
00:13:43,629 --> 00:13:45,490
4-64.6
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九等于9.85
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00:13:48,049 --> 00:13:51,509
然后在这里25.82-20.52
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00:13:51,509 --> 00:13:52,759
等于5.3
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00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:55,179
9.85-5.3
377
00:13:55,179 --> 00:13:56,320
等于4.55
378
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,759
所以九组合约每一组赚455美金
379
00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:03,519
最后的盈利是这九组乘以650
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00:14:03,519 --> 00:14:06,480
再加上这个九组乘以455
381
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,389
一共是9946块钱
382
00:14:09,389 --> 00:14:13,210
或者把这里的金额全都加一遍也可以
383
00:14:13,610 --> 00:14:17,399
我们现在来回顾一下这笔交易
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00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,720
在上周三上周四的时候
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00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,379
我首先认为整个市场
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00:14:23,379 --> 00:14:26,429
各个品种都面临回调的风险
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00:14:26,429 --> 00:14:29,350
我在各个市场选择了很多的标的
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00:14:29,350 --> 00:14:32,240
去做偏看空这样的策略
389
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,419
其中这里展示的就是在美光科技做了两组
390
00:14:36,419 --> 00:14:37,820
Credit cospread
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00:14:37,820 --> 00:14:41,028
这样一个中性偏看空的策略
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00:14:41,028 --> 00:14:44,649
我要注的是它至少进入横盘小幅回调
393
00:14:44,649 --> 00:14:47,360
这样子只要它不继续上涨
394
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:48,789
我们就可以赚钱
395
00:14:48,789 --> 00:14:51,210
那如果它像这样大跌呢
396
00:14:51,210 --> 00:14:53,230
这个策略反而并不是特别好
397
00:14:53,230 --> 00:14:54,750
但是大家看它大跌的话
398
00:14:54,750 --> 00:14:55,990
我们也能赚钱
399
00:14:55,990 --> 00:14:59,389
那为什么我不选择更激进的看空的策略
400
00:14:59,389 --> 00:15:00,629
压住它大跌呢
401
00:15:00,629 --> 00:15:02,629
就像大家现在看到的这样
402
00:15:02,629 --> 00:15:04,929
在极端的抢购高潮之后
403
00:15:04,929 --> 00:15:07,710
确实有大幅反转的可能性
404
00:15:07,710 --> 00:15:09,649
这个可能性并不算很低
405
00:15:09,649 --> 00:15:11,330
但是更多的情况下
406
00:15:11,330 --> 00:15:14,129
市场其实是会进入一个震荡的
407
00:15:14,129 --> 00:15:18,068
比如说我们在美光科技看到的这种大涨大跌
408
00:15:18,068 --> 00:15:21,548
所以选择spread这样的对冲组合去做呢
409
00:15:21,548 --> 00:15:23,089
容错率更高
410
00:15:23,089 --> 00:15:24,269
胜率更高
411
00:15:24,269 --> 00:15:26,429
尽管如果真的大跌的话
412
00:15:26,429 --> 00:15:28,849
它会损失比较多的利润
413
00:15:28,849 --> 00:15:30,229
然而我们看一下
414
00:15:30,229 --> 00:15:33,589
如果直接选择购买看跌期权的话
415
00:15:33,589 --> 00:15:37,139
这个看跌期权假设你到现在仍然持有的话
416
00:15:37,139 --> 00:15:38,340
能不能赚钱
417
00:15:38,340 --> 00:15:41,879
我这里选一个5月29号到期的
418
00:15:41,879 --> 00:15:45,100
750块钱的看跌期权
419
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,679
假设你在这个地方买入是4000多美金
420
00:15:49,679 --> 00:15:52,919
一张合约在跌的最多的时候
421
00:15:52,919 --> 00:15:55,539
这个合约的价值来到了1万美金
422
00:15:55,539 --> 00:15:58,389
也就是说你大约可以赚2.5倍
423
00:15:58,389 --> 00:16:00,110
或者说1.5倍
424
00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:01,590
因为成本是4000
425
00:16:01,590 --> 00:16:03,230
然后赚6000啊
426
00:16:03,230 --> 00:16:04,580
赚1.5倍
427
00:16:04,580 --> 00:16:06,960
现在这个合约价值多少呢
428
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,419
6000出头一点点只能赚50%
429
00:16:10,419 --> 00:16:13,328
它的利润呢回撤了非常多
430
00:16:13,328 --> 00:16:15,068
本来是赚6000美金
431
00:16:15,068 --> 00:16:16,349
现在只赚2000
432
00:16:16,349 --> 00:16:19,460
利润回撤了66.6%
433
00:16:19,460 --> 00:16:21,139
但是credit cospread
434
00:16:21,139 --> 00:16:24,529
大家看到今天利润回撤了2000多美金
435
00:16:24,529 --> 00:16:27,289
但是仍然有1万美金左右的收益
436
00:16:27,289 --> 00:16:29,799
利润只回撤了20%左右
437
00:16:29,799 --> 00:16:31,519
这个是一个容错率
438
00:16:31,519 --> 00:16:33,519
当然如果买入单腿put
439
00:16:33,519 --> 00:16:36,500
而且在很高的地方止盈的话
440
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:40,450
最大利润的空间肯定是比我们要更大的
441
00:16:40,450 --> 00:16:43,090
但是前提条件是它真的大涨
442
00:16:43,090 --> 00:16:45,049
如果它只上涨这么一点点呢
443
00:16:45,049 --> 00:16:46,389
然后就开始震荡呢
444
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:47,879
这个put就赚不到钱
445
00:16:47,879 --> 00:16:49,019
甚至是亏钱
446
00:16:49,019 --> 00:16:50,159
但是对于我们来说
447
00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:52,519
只要股价有一个小幅的下跌
448
00:16:52,519 --> 00:16:55,269
我们仍然可以赚到很不错的利润
449
00:16:55,269 --> 00:16:57,350
这里我顺便说一下美光科技
450
00:16:57,350 --> 00:16:58,470
它一度跌了那么多
451
00:16:58,470 --> 00:17:00,809
为什么这个put反而没有赚很多钱
452
00:17:00,809 --> 00:17:03,450
原因就是它的波动率太大了
453
00:17:03,450 --> 00:17:04,529
IV太高了
454
00:17:04,529 --> 00:17:06,920
所以导致期权的价格很高
455
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,559
杠杆就变小了
456
00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:11,200
这也是我不去买put一个最大的原因
457
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,599
除非他真的有非常大的跌幅
458
00:17:13,599 --> 00:17:16,509
不然的话完全不如做credit cospread
459
00:17:16,509 --> 00:17:17,430
所以总的来说
460
00:17:17,430 --> 00:17:20,450
大家看到了我们这次做的这个spread组合
461
00:17:20,450 --> 00:17:22,039
他的胜率更高
462
00:17:22,039 --> 00:17:24,980
对赚钱的要求呢相对更小
463
00:17:24,980 --> 00:17:26,859
而且容错率啊也更高
464
00:17:26,859 --> 00:17:29,470
也就是说它更加稳定一些
465
00:17:29,470 --> 00:17:31,750
尽管在一些小概率的时候
466
00:17:31,750 --> 00:17:34,509
他赚钱没有单腿期权赚那么多
467
00:17:34,509 --> 00:17:35,630
我不知道我这样讲
468
00:17:35,630 --> 00:17:36,909
大家能不能听懂
469
00:17:36,909 --> 00:17:38,308
我也提到很多次
470
00:17:38,308 --> 00:17:41,528
l brooks他在课程里面反复强调啊
471
00:17:41,528 --> 00:17:44,400
抛售高潮或者抢购高潮之后
472
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,400
更大的概率是进入某种震荡区间
473
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,329
震荡区间的特征是什么
474
00:17:49,329 --> 00:17:50,589
大涨大跌
475
00:17:50,589 --> 00:17:53,450
尽管呢这次我也没有预料到它的大涨
476
00:17:53,450 --> 00:17:55,390
大跌幅度会那么的夸张
477
00:17:55,390 --> 00:17:56,730
但这个就是交易啊
478
00:17:56,730 --> 00:17:59,539
不可能所有的事情都被你算到
479
00:17:59,539 --> 00:18:02,359
还有一个我需要提前离场的原因呢
480
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,539
是因为明天盘后啊有英伟达的财报
481
00:18:05,539 --> 00:18:06,660
英伟达的财报
482
00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:09,940
对于这些AI相关的股票会有什么样的影响
483
00:18:09,940 --> 00:18:11,429
这个我们不知道
484
00:18:11,429 --> 00:18:12,148
当然了
485
00:18:12,148 --> 00:18:14,648
我个人认为它不会有太大的波动
486
00:18:14,648 --> 00:18:17,209
但是这些事情是没有必要去赌的
487
00:18:17,209 --> 00:18:20,019
我这边举一个极端的例子啊
488
00:18:20,019 --> 00:18:23,679
就比如说其中我们一组价差合约是这样的情况
489
00:18:23,679 --> 00:18:25,159
最大利润是8100
490
00:18:25,159 --> 00:18:26,950
最大亏损是9900
491
00:18:26,950 --> 00:18:30,210
假设说现在已经赚到了8000美金
492
00:18:30,210 --> 00:18:32,990
那最多我只能再赚100块钱
493
00:18:32,990 --> 00:18:33,630
对不对
494
00:18:33,630 --> 00:18:35,509
但是我承担的风险是什么
495
00:18:35,509 --> 00:18:37,150
我承担的风险是手牵
496
00:18:37,150 --> 00:18:40,269
现在已经赚到的8000块钱全部回撤
497
00:18:40,269 --> 00:18:42,730
第二个达到最大亏损的话
498
00:18:42,730 --> 00:18:44,049
倒亏9900
499
00:18:44,049 --> 00:18:48,019
所以我的总风险是失去1万7900块钱
500
00:18:48,019 --> 00:18:49,980
为了赚100块钱
501
00:18:49,980 --> 00:18:53,069
承担1万7900块钱的风险
502
00:18:53,069 --> 00:18:55,009
这个是不是非常不合理
503
00:18:55,009 --> 00:18:56,829
除非你有百分之百的把握
504
00:18:56,829 --> 00:18:58,880
否则绝对不应该这样做
505
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,279
当然如果一共8100块钱
506
00:19:01,279 --> 00:19:03,140
你已经赚到8000块钱的话
507
00:19:03,140 --> 00:19:06,150
这个通常就是到期最后几个小时
508
00:19:06,150 --> 00:19:08,369
那你说它几个小时里面突然暴涨
509
00:19:08,369 --> 00:19:09,869
二十三十%
510
00:19:09,869 --> 00:19:11,329
这个概率非常低
511
00:19:11,329 --> 00:19:14,180
我们这边是举一个极端的情况啊
512
00:19:14,180 --> 00:19:18,079
帮助大家理解为什么做spread价差合约的时候
513
00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:20,750
大部分时间呢最好提前离场
514
00:19:20,750 --> 00:19:23,579
没有必要去赚尽最后一些钱
515
00:19:23,579 --> 00:19:26,539
如果啊你确实看空美光科技的话
516
00:19:26,539 --> 00:19:28,299
我其实没有看空美光科技
517
00:19:28,299 --> 00:19:30,650
我看的只是它涨不上去而已
518
00:19:30,650 --> 00:19:30,890
对不对
519
00:19:30,890 --> 00:19:31,529
我们讲过
520
00:19:31,529 --> 00:19:34,369
我只是压住它横盘或者有一些小的回调
521
00:19:34,369 --> 00:19:38,220
我甚至啊还在日K线EMA20的地方
522
00:19:38,220 --> 00:19:40,539
我挂了限价单去买他的股票
523
00:19:43,150 --> 00:19:44,700
没有碰到我的订单
524
00:19:44,700 --> 00:19:45,440
没有成交
525
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,579
在评论区呢也有不少观众问
526
00:19:47,579 --> 00:19:50,220
如果我想逢低买入美光科技的话
527
00:19:50,220 --> 00:19:51,220
应该怎么办
528
00:19:51,220 --> 00:19:52,180
我也回答了
529
00:19:52,180 --> 00:19:53,980
在日K线的em20
530
00:19:53,980 --> 00:19:55,859
或者你去看周K线EMA20
531
00:19:55,859 --> 00:19:56,710
它会更远
532
00:19:56,710 --> 00:19:59,690
周K线的em20可能还在这个位置
533
00:19:59,690 --> 00:20:02,779
那并不是说他一定要急速下跌那么多
534
00:20:02,779 --> 00:20:04,779
才会碰到周K线的均线
535
00:20:04,779 --> 00:20:06,579
它可能是横盘震荡
536
00:20:06,579 --> 00:20:10,410
然后啊这个周K线的均线它会很快跟上来
537
00:20:10,410 --> 00:20:13,670
我们说如果你真的看空美光科技的话
538
00:20:13,670 --> 00:20:15,450
你可以等它涨上去再做空
539
00:20:15,450 --> 00:20:17,839
或者开仓新的价差合约啊
540
00:20:17,839 --> 00:20:20,160
你做一个30天的这样的spread
541
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,089
就更加有容错率一点
542
00:20:22,089 --> 00:20:25,529
但是没有必要在临近到期的合约上
543
00:20:25,529 --> 00:20:28,449
去想着赚进最后一分钱
544
00:20:28,449 --> 00:20:30,888
像这样的事情我还真的遇到过一次
545
00:20:30,888 --> 00:20:32,440
当然没有他那么极端
546
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,519
当时的情况是
547
00:20:33,519 --> 00:20:36,799
我已经赚了九十二九十三%的利润了
548
00:20:36,799 --> 00:20:37,819
我记得非常清楚
549
00:20:37,819 --> 00:20:39,809
就是九十二九十三%
550
00:20:39,809 --> 00:20:41,849
然后出现了惊天大逆转
551
00:20:41,849 --> 00:20:44,289
我最后是亏10%几离场
552
00:20:44,289 --> 00:20:46,380
还好我当时果断啊
553
00:20:46,380 --> 00:20:49,200
没有让情绪去左右我的决定
554
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,400
否则的话我会倒亏完
555
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,319
本期节目的这笔交易其实非常经典
556
00:20:54,319 --> 00:20:57,579
它几乎就是把能够发生的情况全都发生了
557
00:20:57,579 --> 00:21:00,839
也充分的体现了这个策略的优缺点和特点
558
00:21:00,839 --> 00:21:01,759
我们再来讲一下
559
00:21:01,759 --> 00:21:04,680
它在时间损耗和波动率方面的这个特点
560
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,180
首先就是时间损耗
561
00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:08,680
为什么它的价格一度下跌了那么多
562
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,640
但是我们的这个合约啊
563
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,430
还是有10%几20的钱赚不到
564
00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:16,769
就是因为他这个策略很大一部分
565
00:21:16,769 --> 00:21:18,809
它是靠时间损耗去赚钱
566
00:21:18,809 --> 00:21:20,519
最后的10%
567
00:21:20,519 --> 00:21:23,980
你必须得等到到期的时候才能赚到
568
00:21:23,980 --> 00:21:25,880
而且是到期的最后一两天
569
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,279
他时间加速损耗
570
00:21:27,279 --> 00:21:29,720
你才能赚到最后的那一点利润
571
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,180
所以说除非你非常非常确定
572
00:21:32,180 --> 00:21:34,740
不可能有惊天逆转的可能性
573
00:21:34,740 --> 00:21:38,349
否则呢没有必要为了最后一点点时间的价值啊
574
00:21:38,349 --> 00:21:41,450
去承担利润回撤加上倒亏的风险
575
00:21:41,450 --> 00:21:42,890
就是我们刚才讲的
576
00:21:42,890 --> 00:21:44,990
还有一个就是隐含波动率
577
00:21:44,990 --> 00:21:46,279
Credit spread
578
00:21:46,279 --> 00:21:48,559
他不希望波动率很大
579
00:21:48,559 --> 00:21:50,220
我们上期视频就讲过
580
00:21:50,220 --> 00:21:51,279
我最好啊
581
00:21:51,279 --> 00:21:53,240
它波动率变成一滩死水
582
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,220
就这样横盘横盘到时间结束
583
00:21:56,220 --> 00:21:57,980
如果波动率很大呢
584
00:21:57,980 --> 00:22:00,079
当然它下跌的时候没有问题
585
00:22:00,079 --> 00:22:01,690
但是它也会这样大涨
586
00:22:01,690 --> 00:22:04,150
这样的话就不太好用
587
00:22:04,150 --> 00:22:05,789
期权术语来讲的话呢
588
00:22:05,789 --> 00:22:08,359
credit spread是做空VEGA的
589
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,109
VEGA它是IV
590
00:22:10,109 --> 00:22:13,950
它是隐含波动率对期权价格的一阶偏导数
591
00:22:13,950 --> 00:22:16,369
如果你们对数学有兴趣的话
592
00:22:16,369 --> 00:22:18,650
可以去学习这个东西
593
00:22:18,650 --> 00:22:21,109
那我讲的通俗易懂一点的
594
00:22:21,109 --> 00:22:24,690
就是说如果他已经在我的盈利范围内了
595
00:22:24,690 --> 00:22:26,779
我就希望它波动越来越小
596
00:22:26,779 --> 00:22:29,299
同时时间损耗也是站在我这一方
597
00:22:29,299 --> 00:22:31,680
我依靠时间损耗来赚钱
598
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,980
不像你作为期权买方的话呢
599
00:22:33,980 --> 00:22:36,130
时间损耗啊会让你亏钱
600
00:22:36,130 --> 00:22:38,869
美光科技的这笔交易是一个尝试
601
00:22:38,869 --> 00:22:42,170
我尝试把价格行为和期权结合起来
602
00:22:42,170 --> 00:22:44,809
价格行为相信大家已经看到了
603
00:22:44,809 --> 00:22:46,230
l brooks所讲的内容
604
00:22:46,230 --> 00:22:48,430
真实发生在眼前
605
00:22:48,430 --> 00:22:49,470
很多东西啊
606
00:22:49,470 --> 00:22:50,829
如果你没有经历过
607
00:22:50,829 --> 00:22:53,190
你没有真正的交易过很多次
608
00:22:53,190 --> 00:22:54,589
你可能没有体会
609
00:22:54,589 --> 00:22:56,230
你可能尽管在课程里面
610
00:22:56,230 --> 00:22:57,339
你看到了这句话
611
00:22:57,339 --> 00:22:58,880
甚甚至你记了笔记
612
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,099
但是你没有真正的去理解它
613
00:23:01,099 --> 00:23:03,950
你很难在遇到的时候真正的去运用它
614
00:23:03,950 --> 00:23:06,190
所以他一定是学习课程
615
00:23:06,190 --> 00:23:07,670
然后去实践交易
616
00:23:07,670 --> 00:23:09,710
反复结合的一个过程
617
00:23:09,710 --> 00:23:12,250
你才能真正的明白l brooks
618
00:23:12,250 --> 00:23:14,569
他总结的这些东西到底是什么意思
619
00:23:14,569 --> 00:23:16,839
否则呢很难真正的体会
620
00:23:16,839 --> 00:23:17,680
第二个
621
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:18,839
期权方面的东西
622
00:23:18,839 --> 00:23:21,039
相信大家感受到了它很有趣
623
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:22,559
但是也非常的复杂
624
00:23:22,559 --> 00:23:26,359
光靠这样的一笔交易完全是讲不清楚的
625
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,819
所以说如果我以后做期权课程的话
626
00:23:28,819 --> 00:23:30,960
每一个策略我至少要做20个
627
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:31,720
边做边讲
628
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,170
就是原因在这里
629
00:23:33,170 --> 00:23:36,569
这样的尝试呢短时间内应该是不会去做了
630
00:23:36,569 --> 00:23:38,960
第一个我感觉讲的非常的累
631
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,759
第二个我确实也没有想好怎么样去从零开始
632
00:23:42,759 --> 00:23:45,700
把期权作为一个系统的课程去讲
633
00:23:45,700 --> 00:23:47,670
这个工作量太大了
634
00:23:47,670 --> 00:23:49,670
所以就放到之后再去讲
635
00:23:49,670 --> 00:23:53,599
目前我们频道仍然是专注讲价格行为
636
00:23:53,599 --> 00:23:55,380
先把价格行为讲清楚
637
00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:56,960
好感谢大家的观看
638
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,880
我们之后的节目再见