【Financial Education】为何我要清仓这个标的

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让我问你一个问题

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你喜欢吗

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当股市出现小波动时

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因为我很清楚我当然喜欢

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当股市出现波动时

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哦对了

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我们有戏剧性事件吗

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女士们先生们

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纳斯达克下跌9点

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从历史高点回落6%

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现在已接近这个10%的水平

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道琼斯工业平均指数

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工业平均指数已从历史高点下跌5000点

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还记得很久以前

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比如2025年

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你还记得去年夏天股市讨论的话题吗

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进入秋季

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当时人们谈论的是

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股市是否被高估

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究竟被高估了多少

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估值过高

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我们处于泡沫中

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这类话题

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我想现在所有这些讨论都已经结束了

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关于股市而言

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现在

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人们谈论的不再是

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股市是否泡沫化

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所有这些话题

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存在衰退风险

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担忧情绪

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我们这里有个词

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我们称之为'资本开支狂潮'

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好的

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这个词我们正在讨论的是资本开支完全失控

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这些是今年主导股市的主题

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也是我们看到大幅弱势的原因

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过去几个月股市蒸发了数万亿美元

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就在最近几个月

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所以这是一个非常罕见的

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非常罕见的周五更新

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好的

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鉴于市场波动

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我必须这么做

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如果这意味着周五更新

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我们要做法拉利

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周五更新

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女士们先生们

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好的

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今天视频中我要讨论的三个核心主题

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第一

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呃

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这些经济担忧是真实的吗

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我们会不会陷入衰退

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难道不会吗

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我要分享我的观点和视角

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第二点作为重大举措

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我计划在投资组合中大幅减仓

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当我说到卖出

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我是说百分之百

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我们将讨论资金将投入何处

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此外

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第三步今天将探讨的内容是

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股市还能跌多少

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我们已下跌五千点

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跌破了道指

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纳斯达克下跌近10%

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股价还能继续下跌多少

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或者我们已接近底部

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现在我们将深入讨论这些话题

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希望大家喜欢本周五的视频

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这对我来说非常罕见

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我只需要你们做一件事

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请点赞支持

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希望你们能这样做

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非常感谢你们

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每一位观众

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也请订阅频道

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我们目前已有九十二万两千名订阅者

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感谢每一位观众的到来

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好的

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好的

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女士们先生们

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开始吧

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失业率

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当前失业率约为

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我们可以称之为4.5%

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现在

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关于失业率

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许多人将其视为滞后指标

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他们说

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好的

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4个百分点

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4%

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但经济状况可能更糟

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很快就会升至6%

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没错

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这是合理的讨论

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这是合理的讨论

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目前至少为4.5%

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我觉得这个失业率相当不错

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我认为这就是

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在经济强劲时你应该预期这样的结果

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没错如果经济较弱

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失业率真的会超过6%

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如果经济非常糟糕

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失业率会接近10%

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这简直灾难性

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没错我们真正出现10%以上失业率的情况

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只有在疫情封锁期间

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至少在近现代史上

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至少在疫情封锁期间

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显然没错

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大量数量

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我说

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天啊

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我的城市

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我独自居住

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拉斯维加斯

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整个赌城都关闭了

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任何与赌城相关的工作

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你知道的

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当时都被解雇了

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在近现代历史上的另一个时期

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失业率曾达到10%以上是在金融危机期间

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这种情况很少发生

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现在4.5%还算不错

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有一个被低估的概念

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我喜欢观察

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呃

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关于经济方面

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理解

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货币和货币流通速度非常重要

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货币流通速度是指单位货币在特定时期内用于购买国内商品和服务的频率

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换句话说

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即单位时间内一美元用于购买商品和服务的次数

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如果货币流通速度在增加

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则经济中交易活动增多

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这是你希望看到的

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这确实很重要

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听着我确实

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如今我手头很宽裕

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对吧好的

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我可以把所有钱存起来

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我可以永远不去吃饭

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我可以不去度假

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永远不买新车

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永远不买房

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永远不买新家具

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永远不花钱在景观美化上

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你知道吗

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所以我都在囤积所有的钱

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只是把钱囤着这对经济没好处

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我们必须互相消费

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这样才能维持经济运转对吧

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否则大家都会变得更糟

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所以

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货币流通速度是最被低估的东西之一

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我认为在整体经济学领域

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在整个经济体系中

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最糟糕的情况是所有人都决定

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如果明天也

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你认为经济会怎样

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这将是一场灾难

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接下来会发生什么

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大家都会失业

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不

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将没有工作可做

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不会有税收

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什么都没有了对吧

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文明就要崩溃了

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经济必须靠人们消费维持

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现在钱正在不断循环流通

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看看这个

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这非常非常有趣

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你注意到趋势了吗

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我看到了

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这太疯狂了

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看看90年代中期的情况

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基本上是货币流通速度

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在这里达到峰值然后经历了数十年

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持续走低

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其间有些反弹但流通速度时有波动

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这是金融危机前的情况

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但整体趋势明显下行

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根本没有争议

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整体趋势明显下行

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而趋势在疫情时结束

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简直疯狂

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趋势在疫情时结束

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此后我们进入了良性上升期

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这里的情况非常有趣

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观察货币流通速度

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我们将其推升至

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我们已将其推升

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大致接近

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货币流通速度曾有的水平

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并非创历史新高

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这点值得注意

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因此，货币流通速度可能

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我们现在可能处于峰值

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并将进一步下行

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这就是争论所在

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所以需要持续关注这一点

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关于货币流通速度

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接下来我要展示的是美联储资产负债表

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现在

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这是一个非常有趣的现象

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我不知道有多少人在关注这个

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美联储资产负债表在2022年初达到峰值

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当时通胀形势极其严峻

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美联储决定开始

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嗯

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基本上是在缩减资产负债表

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他们开始加息的时间点

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现在需要做出一系列决策

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我认为这里美联储资产负债表的增加

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我认为这发生在硅谷银行事件期间

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我们有一些区域性银行崩溃

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如果我没记错的话

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当时出现了一波小幅回升

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但美联储资产负债表整体呈持续下降趋势

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从极端高位缩减资产负债表规模

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你知道的

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呃

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当时规模约九万亿美元

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在那段疯狂时期

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现在

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最近发生了一些非常有趣的事

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看看过去几个月

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这实际上开始回升了

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美联储实际上开始扩大资产负债表

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有人可能将其视为

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作为

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哦

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这是好事意味着更多资金

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将被释放出来

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更多流动性流通

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但有趣的是

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美联储开始扩大资产负债表的同时

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股市也开始走弱这很有趣

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因为通常人们会认为

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反之亦然

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如果有的话

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哦

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股市应该一直下跌

247
00:07:48,629 --> 00:07:50,290
现在美联储资产负债表再次扩大

248
00:07:50,290 --> 00:07:51,129
此时股市上涨

249
00:07:51,129 --> 00:07:53,180
实际情况并非如此对吧

250
00:07:53,180 --> 00:07:54,839
但这确实让人深思

251
00:07:54,839 --> 00:07:55,839
嗯

252
00:07:55,839 --> 00:07:56,680
你知道的

253
00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,399
美联储开始再次扩大资产负债表

254
00:07:58,399 --> 00:08:00,459
是不是有什么问题在发生

255
00:08:00,459 --> 00:08:03,680
通常情况下，当经济形势良好时

256
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:04,639
美联储

257
00:08:04,639 --> 00:08:06,600
美联储可以缩减资产负债表

258
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:07,620
而当经济形势严峻时

259
00:08:07,620 --> 00:08:08,399
形势艰难

260
00:08:08,399 --> 00:08:11,120
美联储开始扩大资产负债表

261
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:13,889
请记住这些趋势可能

262
00:08:13,889 --> 00:08:15,490
持续相当长一段时间

263
00:08:15,490 --> 00:08:15,829
没错

264
00:08:15,829 --> 00:08:18,449
这一趋势在持续时间上

265
00:08:18,449 --> 00:08:19,050
你知道的

266
00:08:19,050 --> 00:08:19,889
缩减资产负债表

267
00:08:19,889 --> 00:08:20,939
然后我们经历了新冠

268
00:08:20,939 --> 00:08:25,180
随后经历了数年扩大资产负债表的上升周期

269
00:08:25,180 --> 00:08:28,560
之后又经历了数年美联储资产负债表的下降周期

270
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:33,259
所以如果你猜测我们可能正在经历数年资产负债表的扩张

271
00:08:33,259 --> 00:08:35,659
这意味着或许有什么即将发生

272
00:08:35,659 --> 00:08:38,190
这值得考虑相关因素

273
00:08:38,190 --> 00:08:38,730
好的

274
00:08:38,730 --> 00:08:39,710
接下来这里

275
00:08:39,710 --> 00:08:42,029
政府岗位听好了

276
00:08:42,029 --> 00:08:43,269
过去一年非常混乱

277
00:08:43,269 --> 00:08:45,190
关于政府岗位的事

278
00:08:45,190 --> 00:08:46,070
我们经历了狗狗币热潮

279
00:08:46,070 --> 00:08:49,000
随后经历了长时间的政府停摆

280
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,299
现在又到了 TSA 问题

281
00:08:50,299 --> 00:08:50,980
我太高兴了

282
00:08:50,980 --> 00:08:51,600
我不坐飞机

283
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,860
希望你们近期也不要坐飞机

284
00:08:53,860 --> 00:08:55,399
听说那里一团糟

285
00:08:55,399 --> 00:08:56,379
这是张图片

286
00:08:56,379 --> 00:08:57,220
在 X 平台发布的

287
00:08:57,220 --> 00:08:57,539
顺便说一句

288
00:08:57,539 --> 00:08:58,919
如果你想在 X 上关注我

289
00:08:58,919 --> 00:09:00,940
描述栏下方一直有链接

290
00:09:00,940 --> 00:09:03,480
我在 X 上几乎每天都会发内容

291
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,899
但我认为这是休斯顿机场

292
00:09:05,899 --> 00:09:07,519
完全失控了

293
00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:09,639
对吧，看看这个

294
00:09:09,639 --> 00:09:11,679
看到这样的画面后

295
00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,889
当我看到这张照片时

296
00:09:14,370 --> 00:09:16,289
我根本不想出行

297
00:09:16,289 --> 00:09:18,509
即使我之前在想

298
00:09:18,509 --> 00:09:19,470
也许我该买本书

299
00:09:19,470 --> 00:09:20,909
下个月或两个月内的航班

300
00:09:20,909 --> 00:09:23,610
去某个地方飞行并在另一个城市花些钱

301
00:09:23,610 --> 00:09:25,820
哦不不不

302
00:09:25,820 --> 00:09:27,200
非常感谢不用了

303
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,720
我不处理这些事 忘了吧

304
00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,879
这和机场安检人员以及类似的事情有关对吧

305
00:09:32,879 --> 00:09:33,929
看看这个

306
00:09:33,929 --> 00:09:38,070
纽约拉瓜迪亚机场巨大的安检队伍

307
00:09:38,070 --> 00:09:40,419
延伸到停车场

308
00:09:40,419 --> 00:09:42,320
延伸到停车场

309
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,269
我是说

310
00:09:43,269 --> 00:09:43,850
是啊

311
00:09:43,850 --> 00:09:46,450
如果短期内能避开机场

312
00:09:46,450 --> 00:09:48,129
短期内避开机场

313
00:09:48,129 --> 00:09:50,779
你或者得开始狂刷

314
00:09:50,779 --> 00:09:51,720
看很多我的视频

315
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,820
排队时因为可能需要

316
00:09:53,820 --> 00:09:56,019
你知道要三四个甚至五个小时

317
00:09:56,019 --> 00:09:59,190
谁知道这整个情况太荒谬了

318
00:09:59,190 --> 00:09:59,590
对啊

319
00:09:59,590 --> 00:10:00,960
所以这就是

320
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:01,360
你知道的

321
00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:02,679
如果人们看到这个

322
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:03,000
他们会说

323
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,320
为什么我要想旅行

324
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:05,259
为什么我要花钱

325
00:10:05,259 --> 00:10:06,639
然后开始担忧

326
00:10:06,639 --> 00:10:08,159
资金周转速度放缓

327
00:10:08,159 --> 00:10:09,549
资金周转速度放缓

328
00:10:09,549 --> 00:10:11,210
整体上不是好事

329
00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:11,710
这可不是

330
00:10:11,710 --> 00:10:13,289
不会终结经济

331
00:10:13,289 --> 00:10:13,690
这只是

332
00:10:13,690 --> 00:10:14,549
并不理想

333
00:10:14,549 --> 00:10:18,239
现在需要让资金流动起来循环

334
00:10:18,239 --> 00:10:19,558
公众看法如何

335
00:10:19,558 --> 00:10:21,938
公众看法显示美国

336
00:10:21,938 --> 00:10:24,070
经济在恶化

337
00:10:24,070 --> 00:10:24,710
有五

338
00:10:24,710 --> 00:10:26,529
9%的美国人持有这种观点

339
00:10:26,529 --> 00:10:28,110
截至2026年3月

340
00:10:28,110 --> 00:10:30,149
受油价上涨驱动

341
00:10:30,149 --> 00:10:33,070
这并不意外且通胀

342
00:10:33,070 --> 00:10:35,370
然而经济数据呈现复杂图景

343
00:10:35,370 --> 00:10:37,570
尽管消费者信心悲观

344
00:10:37,570 --> 00:10:39,960
经济仍持续增长

345
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,019
通胀有点令人担忧对吧

346
00:10:42,019 --> 00:10:46,500
通胀是消费者面临的问题

347
00:10:46,500 --> 00:10:48,379
其实就是说美国人

348
00:10:48,379 --> 00:10:48,840
或者

349
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:49,259
你知道的

350
00:10:49,259 --> 00:10:50,200
世界各地的人们

351
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,000
但我要说的是美国人

352
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,120
嗯，通货膨胀

353
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:55,860
这个问题持续了多年

354
00:10:55,860 --> 00:11:00,620
曾有一段时间几乎不是问题

355
00:11:00,620 --> 00:11:04,460
而汽油价格又大幅上涨

356
00:11:04,460 --> 00:11:05,320
问题再次出现

357
00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:09,750
通胀数据简直低到不能再低了

358
00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:12,370
但如今油价上涨严重

359
00:11:12,370 --> 00:11:13,440
现在的情况是

360
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:14,080
你知道的

361
00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,100
可能会推高CPI

362
00:11:16,100 --> 00:11:18,519
甚至可能推高PPI

363
00:11:18,519 --> 00:11:20,919
生产者价格指数也会随之上升

364
00:11:20,919 --> 00:11:23,399
毕竟谈到油价

365
00:11:23,399 --> 00:11:25,730
它影响所有领域

366
00:11:25,730 --> 00:11:26,970
然后人们担心

367
00:11:26,970 --> 00:11:27,429
好的

368
00:11:27,429 --> 00:11:28,750
通胀进一步升高

369
00:11:28,750 --> 00:11:34,379
美联储必须维持高于民众预期的利率

370
00:11:34,740 --> 00:11:36,399
这显然不是良性循环

371
00:11:36,399 --> 00:11:37,720
这不是良性循环

372
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:42,078
十年来一直存在这种情况

373
00:11:42,078 --> 00:11:45,828
同时经济恶化担忧加剧

374
00:11:45,828 --> 00:11:47,129
这是怎么回事你知道吗

375
00:11:47,129 --> 00:11:48,808
如果经济持续恶化

376
00:11:48,808 --> 00:11:51,568
而利率和通胀同时上升

377
00:11:51,568 --> 00:11:53,240
这会怎样

378
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,200
这是一个糟糕的词汇

379
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,840
经济学入门时最早学到的概念

380
00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,700
希望在上大学前就了解

381
00:11:59,700 --> 00:12:01,519
但大多数人直到大学才学到

382
00:12:01,519 --> 00:12:02,980
大多数人可能甚至不知道

383
00:12:02,980 --> 00:12:04,259
这被称为滞胀

384
00:12:04,259 --> 00:12:06,100
当经济状况恶化时

385
00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:06,659
更高的

386
00:12:06,659 --> 00:12:07,320
通胀

387
00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:08,320
更高利率

388
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,159
情况会非常糟糕

389
00:12:10,159 --> 00:12:13,830
不能说现在处于滞胀

390
00:12:13,830 --> 00:12:17,750
但存在引发滞胀的风险

391
00:12:17,750 --> 00:12:19,190
可能导致滞胀

392
00:12:19,190 --> 00:12:21,070
这是无人愿见的局面

393
00:12:21,070 --> 00:12:21,789
人们说

394
00:12:21,789 --> 00:12:22,029
好的

395
00:12:22,029 --> 00:12:23,970
我们可以应对通胀

396
00:12:23,970 --> 00:12:25,379
但滞胀

397
00:12:27,419 --> 00:12:29,220
加上糟糕的经济

398
00:12:29,220 --> 00:12:29,919
哦不

399
00:12:29,919 --> 00:12:31,820
那将会是灾难性的

400
00:12:31,820 --> 00:12:32,299
没错

401
00:12:32,299 --> 00:12:34,700
我们熬过了2022年的这场危机

402
00:12:34,700 --> 00:12:39,690
你知道当时有大量资金被注入市场

403
00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:41,269
在2020和2021年

404
00:12:41,269 --> 00:12:45,360
尽管2022年经济仍能维持运转

405
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,360
尽管存在如此疯狂的通胀

406
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:48,960
消费者在2022年不得不应对这些

407
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,659
而到了2023年又有新一轮资金注入

408
00:12:52,659 --> 00:12:53,919
同时还有经济重启

409
00:12:53,919 --> 00:12:55,639
因此更多岗位得以恢复

410
00:12:55,639 --> 00:12:57,240
所以我们才能勉强维持

411
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:58,649
如果不是这样

412
00:13:00,169 --> 00:13:02,870
但你也可以说没有这种疯狂通胀

413
00:13:02,870 --> 00:13:04,809
没有那些疯狂的资金注入

414
00:13:04,809 --> 00:13:06,049
加上各种其他因素

415
00:13:06,049 --> 00:13:09,349
大宗商品经历了数年的疯狂牛市

416
00:13:09,349 --> 00:13:11,860
从2020年4月低点开始

417
00:13:11,860 --> 00:13:15,620
到2022年5月的时间段

418
00:13:15,620 --> 00:13:17,779
本质上现在

419
00:13:17,779 --> 00:13:19,179
这是美国

420
00:13:19,179 --> 00:13:20,299
密歇根消费者信心指数

421
00:13:20,299 --> 00:13:22,179
他们做了几十年的这项调查

422
00:13:22,179 --> 00:13:23,679
我想展示过去十年的数据

423
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:24,639
最近十年

424
00:13:24,639 --> 00:13:25,529
好的现在

425
00:13:25,529 --> 00:13:28,970
如果消费者信心指数超过95分

426
00:13:28,970 --> 00:13:29,629
那真是很棒

427
00:13:29,629 --> 00:13:32,129
这意味着经济状况非常好

428
00:13:32,129 --> 00:13:35,029
我可以称这是最好的经济

429
00:13:35,029 --> 00:13:36,049
我觉得

430
00:13:36,049 --> 00:13:37,350
当我提到最好的经济

431
00:13:37,350 --> 00:13:39,309
我是指对大众而言

432
00:13:39,309 --> 00:13:40,450
普通民众

433
00:13:40,450 --> 00:13:41,649
不管你是富人

434
00:13:41,649 --> 00:13:42,769
还是中产阶级

435
00:13:42,769 --> 00:13:43,690
不管你是

436
00:13:43,690 --> 00:13:44,970
甚至低于中产

437
00:13:44,970 --> 00:13:47,730
这是我成年后见过的最佳经济

438
00:13:47,730 --> 00:13:50,220
我的成年生活始于2008年

439
00:13:50,220 --> 00:13:55,059
可以说是在2017至2019年间

440
00:13:55,059 --> 00:13:56,139
我们

441
00:13:56,139 --> 00:13:58,279
失业率非常低

442
00:13:58,279 --> 00:13:59,379
失业率

443
00:13:59,379 --> 00:14:02,370
通胀水平依然很低

444
00:14:02,370 --> 00:14:06,129
整体经济充满乐观情绪

445
00:14:06,129 --> 00:14:06,929
天啊

446
00:14:06,929 --> 00:14:10,110
我看看2017到2019这段时间

447
00:14:10,110 --> 00:14:14,220
这简直是成年后最好的经济

448
00:14:14,220 --> 00:14:16,000
我们曾经见过对吧

449
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:17,340
然后发生了

450
00:14:17,340 --> 00:14:20,950
从那时起一切都乱了

451
00:14:20,950 --> 00:14:21,690
你知道的

452
00:14:21,690 --> 00:14:24,889
基本上如果你处于85到95的区间

453
00:14:24,889 --> 00:14:26,230
你拥有非常好的

454
00:14:26,230 --> 00:14:28,509
非常好的经济和消费信心

455
00:14:28,509 --> 00:14:28,750
没错

456
00:14:28,750 --> 00:14:29,919
记住这是通胀

457
00:14:29,919 --> 00:14:31,879
消费信心实际上由

458
00:14:31,879 --> 00:14:33,080
你能找到工作吗

459
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:33,740
你知道的

460
00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:36,100
或者月底还有剩余的钱

461
00:14:36,100 --> 00:14:38,559
没错这提升了消费信心

462
00:14:38,559 --> 00:14:40,059
如果人们有好工作

463
00:14:40,059 --> 00:14:42,299
且不受通胀侵蚀

464
00:14:42,299 --> 00:14:43,539
月底还能存些钱

465
00:14:43,539 --> 00:14:44,500
所以可以去度假

466
00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:45,059
他们可以这样做

467
00:14:45,059 --> 00:14:45,419
而这就

468
00:14:45,419 --> 00:14:47,328
我说的是普通人

469
00:14:47,328 --> 00:14:47,969
你知道的

470
00:14:47,969 --> 00:14:49,109
这才是真正

471
00:14:49,109 --> 00:14:49,668
呃

472
00:14:49,668 --> 00:14:50,729
消费信心高涨

473
00:14:50,729 --> 00:14:51,308
没错

474
00:14:51,308 --> 00:14:54,139
如果处于75到85的区间

475
00:14:54,139 --> 00:14:56,080
属于一般经济

476
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,080
从消费信心角度看确实如此

477
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,149
如果处于65到75的区间

478
00:15:02,149 --> 00:15:02,730
你就会

479
00:15:02,730 --> 00:15:04,470
出现糟糕的消费信心

480
00:15:04,470 --> 00:15:07,830
意味着经济不好或组合问题

481
00:15:07,830 --> 00:15:08,190
比如

482
00:15:08,190 --> 00:15:09,850
人们有工作

483
00:15:09,850 --> 00:15:12,610
但月底所剩无几被通胀掏空

484
00:15:12,610 --> 00:15:14,330
如果低于65

485
00:15:14,330 --> 00:15:15,590
就是灾难

486
00:15:15,590 --> 00:15:18,070
过去几年里

487
00:15:18,070 --> 00:15:20,769
我们一直陷入灾难

488
00:15:20,769 --> 00:15:24,139
现在同样处于灾难中

489
00:15:24,139 --> 00:15:24,980
话说回来

490
00:15:24,980 --> 00:15:27,700
失业率仍相对较低

491
00:15:27,700 --> 00:15:29,440
企业仍能交出数据

492
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:30,639
即使在灾难中

493
00:15:30,639 --> 00:15:31,789
消费信心

494
00:15:31,789 --> 00:15:33,070
但如果你想分析

495
00:15:33,070 --> 00:15:36,350
我们可以从正反两面看

496
00:15:36,350 --> 00:15:39,500
如果你想从正面看

497
00:15:39,500 --> 00:15:41,700
我们还有很长路要爬

498
00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:44,500
情况已经糟糕到不能再糟了

499
00:15:44,500 --> 00:15:44,759
字面意思

500
00:15:44,759 --> 00:15:47,220
消费者情绪糟糕到极点

501
00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:48,679
情况已经糟糕到顶点了

502
00:15:48,679 --> 00:15:52,720
因此消费者信心可能会在长期内显著恢复

503
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:54,000
一步一步来

504
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:55,039
一步一步来

505
00:15:55,039 --> 00:15:55,779
好的

506
00:15:55,779 --> 00:15:57,059
接下来是

507
00:15:57,059 --> 00:15:58,759
数据中心现在

508
00:15:58,759 --> 00:16:00,919
这真是个好消息

509
00:16:00,919 --> 00:16:03,240
真的真的超级好消息

510
00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:04,019
好的

511
00:16:04,019 --> 00:16:05,860
这些公司都在大肆花钱

512
00:16:05,860 --> 00:16:06,820
我们都知道这一点

513
00:16:06,820 --> 00:16:08,700
大部分资金都流入了英伟达口袋

514
00:16:08,700 --> 00:16:12,279
但你需要建造这些巨型数据中心

515
00:16:12,279 --> 00:16:15,860
众多公司在全美各地都在建设数据中心

516
00:16:15,860 --> 00:16:16,590
没错

517
00:16:16,590 --> 00:16:19,789
像亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软这样的公司

518
00:16:19,789 --> 00:16:21,159
这些都是大公司

519
00:16:21,159 --> 00:16:25,940
这些庞大的数据中心不会凭空建成

520
00:16:25,940 --> 00:16:30,200
都是由人类用巨型起重机建造

521
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,940
还有卡特彼勒设备等机械

522
00:16:32,940 --> 00:16:34,139
所有这些设备都到位了

523
00:16:34,139 --> 00:16:37,019
当这些巨型数据中心建设时

524
00:16:37,019 --> 00:16:40,320
会创造大量建筑岗位和一般岗位

525
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,379
这就是今年的好消息

526
00:16:43,379 --> 00:16:45,580
至少在未来一年

527
00:16:45,580 --> 00:16:49,210
全美各地都在建设数据中心

528
00:16:49,210 --> 00:16:50,730
这些不会自己建成

529
00:16:50,730 --> 00:16:53,519
需要大量人力参与建设

530
00:16:53,519 --> 00:16:56,580
我目睹了亚利桑那州的台积电工厂建设

531
00:16:56,580 --> 00:16:58,659
因为我有一处房产在亚利桑那

532
00:16:58,659 --> 00:17:00,139
这可能距离台积电工厂

533
00:17:00,139 --> 00:17:02,700
大约十五分钟车程

534
00:17:02,700 --> 00:17:03,399
没错

535
00:17:03,399 --> 00:17:08,420
当时我们用那处房子作为度假屋

536
00:17:08,420 --> 00:17:10,299
简直令人难以置信

537
00:17:10,299 --> 00:17:12,160
难以置信

538
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,680
这个台积电工厂创造的就业量

539
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:16,579
他们还在继续扩建

540
00:17:16,579 --> 00:17:17,099
嗯

541
00:17:17,099 --> 00:17:18,400
周边也在建设设施

542
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:19,339
这点要记住

543
00:17:19,339 --> 00:17:21,240
这简直令人震惊

544
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:22,950
我过去那里时

545
00:17:22,950 --> 00:17:27,799
现场到处都是车辆和施工人员

546
00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:30,619
所以像台积电这样的设施

547
00:17:30,619 --> 00:17:32,960
全美各地都在建设的数据中心

548
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,480
毫无疑问，这对经济非常非常有利

549
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,559
这意味着大量建筑岗位

550
00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:40,200
创造了许多间接就业岗位

551
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:46,640
然后这些岗位又会进一步创造更多直接或间接的工作机会

552
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,410
这确实是个好现象

553
00:17:48,410 --> 00:17:48,769
没错

554
00:17:48,769 --> 00:17:53,388
如果亚马逊、Meta、谷歌这些公司只是用资金进行股票回购

555
00:17:53,388 --> 00:17:54,328
这可不是好事

556
00:17:54,328 --> 00:17:55,509
这意味着公司只是

557
00:17:55,509 --> 00:17:55,828
你知道的

558
00:17:55,828 --> 00:17:59,229
基本上用所有资金进行纯粹的股票回购

559
00:17:59,229 --> 00:18:01,328
这对经济其实没什么帮助

560
00:18:01,328 --> 00:18:02,809
只对股价有好处

561
00:18:02,809 --> 00:18:05,130
每股收益在这种情况下可能飙升

562
00:18:05,130 --> 00:18:07,490
因为流通股数量在减少

563
00:18:07,490 --> 00:18:09,430
净利润却大幅增长

564
00:18:09,430 --> 00:18:11,529
但这对经济没什么实际作用

565
00:18:11,529 --> 00:18:13,910
这些公司都想把所有收入

566
00:18:13,910 --> 00:18:18,829
重新投入经济循环中，我们现在正在讨论这个

567
00:18:18,829 --> 00:18:19,289
另一个方面

568
00:18:19,289 --> 00:18:20,009
我必须告诉你们

569
00:18:20,009 --> 00:18:22,089
你们总是关注最重要的指标之一

570
00:18:22,089 --> 00:18:24,789
要判断经济状况，新房开工量是关键

571
00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:26,579
而房地产

572
00:18:26,579 --> 00:18:29,240
整体房地产市场对经济至关重要

573
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,529
但新房开工量更是重中之重

574
00:18:31,529 --> 00:18:33,069
每建造一栋房屋

575
00:18:33,069 --> 00:18:33,890
天啊

576
00:18:33,890 --> 00:18:38,240
建造房屋所需的直接和间接岗位数量难以想象

577
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:39,559
简直难以置信

578
00:18:39,559 --> 00:18:42,319
涉及多少工种和相关企业获利

579
00:18:42,319 --> 00:18:45,519
因此新房开工量近期表现不佳

580
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:47,779
过去几年持续恶化

581
00:18:47,779 --> 00:18:50,250
但若要看到希望

582
00:18:50,250 --> 00:18:55,199
最近几个月新房开工有所改善

583
00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:57,298
或者说过去几个季度

584
00:18:57,298 --> 00:18:58,078
所以你知道的

585
00:18:58,078 --> 00:18:59,878
这里或许有转机

586
00:18:59,878 --> 00:19:01,880
值得留意这一点

587
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:02,559
现在

588
00:19:02,559 --> 00:19:05,339
这让我想到股市的一个现象

589
00:19:05,339 --> 00:19:08,240
因为股市现在大量讨论经济形势

590
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,329
没错，正如我之前展示的

591
00:19:11,329 --> 00:19:12,329
到底是鸡还是蛋

592
00:19:12,329 --> 00:19:12,529
没错

593
00:19:12,529 --> 00:19:13,609
究竟是先有鸡还是先有蛋

594
00:19:13,609 --> 00:19:15,809
天啊

595
00:19:15,809 --> 00:19:16,490
这是个好问题

596
00:19:16,490 --> 00:19:20,359
因为蛋必须先存在才能孵化出鸡

597
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:21,119
但接着你会说

598
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,240
鸡蛋是从哪里来的

599
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:22,400
比如

600
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:23,279
这有点让人困惑

601
00:19:23,279 --> 00:19:25,059
它必须是从鸡身上出来的对吧

602
00:19:25,059 --> 00:19:25,720
到底是什么先出现的

603
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,079
鸡还是蛋，这是一个有点矛盾的难题

604
00:19:28,079 --> 00:19:31,380
没错，我也有类似的困惑关于股市

605
00:19:31,380 --> 00:19:32,599
哪里

606
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,380
每次股市似乎都在下跌

607
00:19:35,380 --> 00:19:36,599
人们担心经济形势

608
00:19:36,599 --> 00:19:37,859
所以你要问自己

609
00:19:37,859 --> 00:19:41,279
股市投资者是否担心经济

610
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:42,980
因为股市正在下跌

611
00:19:42,980 --> 00:19:45,200
如果现在股市不下跌

612
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,599
也许根本不会有关心经济的担忧

613
00:19:47,599 --> 00:19:49,849
也许大家都会觉得没问题对吧

614
00:19:49,849 --> 00:19:52,210
这是一个有趣的动态

615
00:19:52,210 --> 00:19:53,730
在我看来

616
00:19:53,730 --> 00:19:54,789
你不能

617
00:19:54,789 --> 00:19:57,210
依我之见，你不能

618
00:19:57,700 --> 00:20:01,460
现在无法做出好的预测

619
00:20:01,460 --> 00:20:04,589
未来六个月经济会大幅好转或恶化

620
00:20:04,589 --> 00:20:06,609
我觉得这不是那种时间段

621
00:20:06,609 --> 00:20:08,460
有很多矛盾信号

622
00:20:08,460 --> 00:20:10,579
就业数据并不糟糕

623
00:20:10,579 --> 00:20:13,640
但现状也不算太好对吧

624
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,230
消费者信心

625
00:20:16,230 --> 00:20:17,500
已经陷入火坑

626
00:20:17,500 --> 00:20:19,599
你可以从这个角度看待

627
00:20:19,599 --> 00:20:20,160
天啊

628
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,700
你知道这糟糕透顶

629
00:20:22,700 --> 00:20:25,349
或者可以从另一个角度看待

630
00:20:25,349 --> 00:20:26,950
也许未来六到十二个月会大幅改善

631
00:20:26,950 --> 00:20:31,390
所以我只是认为

632
00:20:31,390 --> 00:20:33,990
现在经济既不好也不好

633
00:20:33,990 --> 00:20:39,160
它就是这样，我们得应对并度过

634
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:40,759
公司盈利表现不错

635
00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:43,029
不是离谱的好对吧

636
00:20:43,029 --> 00:20:44,190
但确实不错

637
00:20:44,190 --> 00:20:45,789
我们刚经历了财报季

638
00:20:45,789 --> 00:20:47,869
即将迎来新一轮财报季

639
00:20:48,128 --> 00:20:51,588
所以这就是当前的情况

640
00:20:51,588 --> 00:20:55,970
我认为股市下跌是一种现象

641
00:20:55,970 --> 00:20:58,150
让所有投资者感到更糟

642
00:20:58,150 --> 00:21:00,390
然后他们开始从负面角度看待一切

643
00:21:00,390 --> 00:21:01,490
谈到经济时

644
00:21:01,490 --> 00:21:03,589
这是我十七年多来观察到的

645
00:21:03,589 --> 00:21:04,210
在市场中的经历

646
00:21:04,210 --> 00:21:04,740
没错

647
00:21:04,740 --> 00:21:06,299
好吧，在大幅波动前

648
00:21:06,299 --> 00:21:07,650
我正打算做

649
00:21:07,650 --> 00:21:09,069
那里发生了什么

650
00:21:09,069 --> 00:21:10,009
我想让大家知道

651
00:21:10,009 --> 00:21:14,089
我在之前的三五分钟工作坊里录下了你

652
00:21:14,089 --> 00:21:16,490
如何在财富每个阶段管理你的投资组合

653
00:21:16,490 --> 00:21:16,809
我不在乎

654
00:21:16,809 --> 00:21:18,470
如果你有几千美元

655
00:21:18,470 --> 00:21:19,329
数万美元

656
00:21:19,329 --> 00:21:20,589
数十万或数百万

657
00:21:20,589 --> 00:21:22,638
我有一段视频详细讲解

658
00:21:22,638 --> 00:21:24,029
每个阶段该做什么

659
00:21:24,029 --> 00:21:25,309
这需要三五分钟

660
00:21:25,309 --> 00:21:26,269
如果你想要获取

661
00:21:26,269 --> 00:21:28,029
就在下方置顶评论里

662
00:21:28,029 --> 00:21:28,630
点击那个

663
00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:31,700
然后我可以通过邮件或短信发送

664
00:21:31,700 --> 00:21:32,859
无论你想怎么接收

665
00:21:32,859 --> 00:21:33,720
我们可以发送

666
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,819
但我觉得你们真的非常喜欢那个工作坊

667
00:21:36,819 --> 00:21:38,750
完全免费不含税

668
00:21:38,750 --> 00:21:39,190
好的

669
00:21:39,190 --> 00:21:40,069
什么是重大举措

670
00:21:40,069 --> 00:21:40,710
我正在做什么

671
00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:42,859
我在这里要干嘛

672
00:21:42,859 --> 00:21:45,339
这笔钱要流向哪里

673
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,839
TSLZ 这个对冲

674
00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:51,420
我打算全部卖出

675
00:21:51,420 --> 00:21:53,019
是时候了

676
00:21:53,019 --> 00:21:53,640
听着

677
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:54,539
如果市场下跌

678
00:21:54,539 --> 00:21:54,880
周一

679
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:55,940
开始行动

680
00:21:55,940 --> 00:21:57,519
退出TSLZ

681
00:21:57,519 --> 00:21:58,799
退出它

682
00:21:58,799 --> 00:22:00,559
这就是对冲

683
00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:05,160
我已经大幅获利并清仓了该ETF的另一批股份

684
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,849
我计划周一处理剩余部分

685
00:22:08,849 --> 00:22:10,289
如果市场下跌

686
00:22:10,289 --> 00:22:11,349
确实如此

687
00:22:11,349 --> 00:22:14,829
我们总收益达到九千五百美元

688
00:22:14,829 --> 00:22:15,750
百分之二十一

689
00:22:15,750 --> 00:22:18,509
过去几个月这对我是个不错的对冲

690
00:22:18,509 --> 00:22:20,339
我们得坦诚

691
00:22:20,339 --> 00:22:21,579
自从建立这个对冲

692
00:22:21,579 --> 00:22:22,859
几乎所有股票都下跌了

693
00:22:22,859 --> 00:22:24,339
确实有些上涨

694
00:22:24,339 --> 00:22:28,150
但绝大多数股票都在下跌

695
00:22:28,150 --> 00:22:29,950
其中大部分跌幅巨大

696
00:22:29,950 --> 00:22:34,039
我为这次大幅盈利感到庆幸

697
00:22:34,039 --> 00:22:36,720
在市场普遍下行期间获得百分之二十多的收益

698
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,460
我的意思是那些大幅下跌的股票数量

699
00:22:38,460 --> 00:22:39,960
从这个时候起涨幅超过20%

700
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:41,009
天啊

701
00:22:41,009 --> 00:22:43,109
这份名单长到一英里

702
00:22:43,109 --> 00:22:45,690
所以我现在打算抛售止损

703
00:22:45,690 --> 00:22:47,799
听着，我一卖就走

704
00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:49,480
这意味着特斯拉真的要崩盘了

705
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:50,519
这就是市场规律

706
00:22:50,519 --> 00:22:53,499
每次我平仓离场赚取利润

707
00:22:53,499 --> 00:22:55,439
真正的暴跌总在之后发生

708
00:22:55,439 --> 00:22:56,569
然后我就想

709
00:22:56,930 --> 00:22:57,490
是啊

710
00:22:57,490 --> 00:22:59,170
为什么我不多持几天呢

711
00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:00,809
但归根结底

712
00:23:00,809 --> 00:23:02,289
每当我建立这种对冲

713
00:23:02,289 --> 00:23:07,160
我真的不指望大幅崩盘

714
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:07,680
没错

715
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,960
我期待市场进入下跌趋势

716
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,460
通过修正行情赚取利润并离场

717
00:23:13,460 --> 00:23:14,819
对了

718
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:15,640
不过

719
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:16,619
我也不意外

720
00:23:16,619 --> 00:23:18,559
在我卖出后

721
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:19,480
正如我说的

722
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,059
如果市场处于

723
00:23:20,059 --> 00:23:21,960
假设纳斯达克下跌0.5%

724
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:22,720
1%

725
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,779
周一特斯拉下跌1%或几%

726
00:23:25,779 --> 00:23:26,519
我就要离场

727
00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:31,910
嗯我要走了再见再见特斯拉

728
00:23:31,910 --> 00:23:32,589
我不会感到意外

729
00:23:32,589 --> 00:23:33,630
如果之后真的暴跌

730
00:23:33,630 --> 00:23:34,250
然后我就说

731
00:23:34,250 --> 00:23:34,769
天啊

732
00:23:34,769 --> 00:23:36,869
记得我从中提取了5.5万美元

733
00:23:36,869 --> 00:23:37,690
然后你知道的

734
00:23:37,690 --> 00:23:39,210
然后它涨到了10万美元

735
00:23:39,210 --> 00:23:40,630
7.5万美元左右

736
00:23:40,630 --> 00:23:41,650
这就是市场运作方式

737
00:23:41,650 --> 00:23:42,230
多 ling

738
00:23:42,230 --> 00:23:42,490
哦

739
00:23:42,490 --> 00:23:44,490
我无法操作杜英期权

740
00:23:44,490 --> 00:23:50,519
如果持有就能多赚30万美元

741
00:23:50,519 --> 00:23:54,039
多赚30万美元利润

742
00:23:54,039 --> 00:23:56,039
如果我只是持有

743
00:23:56,039 --> 00:23:57,759
我已实现巨大利润

744
00:23:57,759 --> 00:23:59,980
最初我认为自己做得太棒了

745
00:23:59,980 --> 00:24:00,240
然后

746
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,259
哦天哪还有更大的收益在前

747
00:24:02,259 --> 00:24:04,210
哦算了

748
00:24:04,210 --> 00:24:05,589
就是这样，就是这样

749
00:24:05,589 --> 00:24:07,630
好的，那我要把这笔钱投到哪里

750
00:24:07,630 --> 00:24:10,569
卖出后拿到收益后

751
00:24:10,569 --> 00:24:12,230
你知道我们可以叫它五万五千

752
00:24:12,230 --> 00:24:12,650
嘿

753
00:24:12,650 --> 00:24:14,109
希望特斯拉能下跌不少

754
00:24:14,109 --> 00:24:14,309
周一

755
00:24:14,309 --> 00:24:16,819
或许我能拿到六万左右

756
00:24:16,819 --> 00:24:19,519
这笔钱我们打算投资几只股票

757
00:24:20,559 --> 00:24:21,680
所以

758
00:24:22,729 --> 00:24:23,769
快速说一下

759
00:24:23,769 --> 00:24:25,028
我觉得这很酷

760
00:24:25,028 --> 00:24:25,528
富达

761
00:24:25,528 --> 00:24:29,308
他们总为我们股票提供52周区间范围

762
00:24:29,308 --> 00:24:33,680
看看我的股票中有多少处于52周低点或接近

763
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:34,819
低

764
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:37,900
我喜欢这个

765
00:24:37,900 --> 00:24:39,740
这个布局非常棒

766
00:24:39,740 --> 00:24:44,039
对啊，这意味着当市场反弹时

767
00:24:44,039 --> 00:24:46,359
我们可以争论是否会在一周后

768
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:47,000
一个月后

769
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:47,720
六个月后

770
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:48,500
九个月后

771
00:24:48,500 --> 00:24:50,180
当我们让市场反弹时

772
00:24:50,180 --> 00:24:51,539
天啊

773
00:24:51,539 --> 00:24:53,559
你要看公众投票是否会有动作

774
00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:54,940
天啊

775
00:24:54,940 --> 00:24:56,230
你要看他是否会有动作

776
00:24:56,230 --> 00:24:58,150
我甚至没有一只接近五的股票

777
00:24:58,150 --> 00:24:58,990
接近五的

778
00:24:58,990 --> 00:24:59,740
两周高点

779
00:24:59,740 --> 00:25:01,359
谷歌最接近

780
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,779
谷歌现在三百多

781
00:25:02,779 --> 00:25:03,460
处于52周高点

782
00:25:03,460 --> 00:25:04,119
之前是三百五十

783
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:05,140
这是最近的

784
00:25:05,140 --> 00:25:07,119
我有AMD的五

785
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:07,539
两周高点

786
00:25:07,539 --> 00:25:08,400
曾达267

787
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:09,500
这是201

788
00:25:09,500 --> 00:25:10,359
是的

789
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:11,319
天啊

790
00:25:11,319 --> 00:25:14,480
这个投资组合的反弹会很疯狂

791
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,039
绝对疯狂

792
00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:18,660
现在我要把这笔TLZ钱投到哪里

793
00:25:18,660 --> 00:25:19,559
嗯

794
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,920
我会考虑再买入一些

795
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,579
HNT

796
00:25:25,980 --> 00:25:28,980
肯定要多买一些美国运通

797
00:25:28,980 --> 00:25:30,660
我买了美国运通

798
00:25:30,660 --> 00:25:31,759
其实今天早上

799
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:34,940
我打算再买入一些Adobe股票

800
00:25:37,019 --> 00:25:38,880
我想再买一些Nike股票

801
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,180
但我在Nike上可能已经足够了

802
00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:43,970
我在公开账户中的持仓情况如何

803
00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:46,509
我不介意再买入一些Nike和Nether组合

804
00:25:46,509 --> 00:25:47,888
但我要诚实说

805
00:25:47,888 --> 00:25:49,729
我会说美国运通

806
00:25:49,729 --> 00:25:53,190
我会说Adobe将是我的主要关注点

807
00:25:53,190 --> 00:25:55,390
谈到公开账户

808
00:25:55,390 --> 00:25:57,410
在那里买入对吧

809
00:25:57,410 --> 00:25:58,920
总之

810
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:00,079
就是这样

811
00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:00,559
好的

812
00:26:00,559 --> 00:26:01,859
第三个话题

813
00:26:01,859 --> 00:26:03,660
股市还能跌多少

814
00:26:03,660 --> 00:26:04,880
我认为这是个合理的问题

815
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,230
大家都在看

816
00:26:06,230 --> 00:26:07,930
能跌多少呢

817
00:26:07,930 --> 00:26:08,190
听着

818
00:26:09,789 --> 00:26:11,450
这条新闻刚刚出来

819
00:26:11,450 --> 00:26:12,299
没错

820
00:26:12,299 --> 00:26:15,380
特朗普表示不想引发贸易战

821
00:26:15,380 --> 00:26:16,779
他不想要贸易战

822
00:26:16,779 --> 00:26:17,740
暂停行动对吧

823
00:26:17,740 --> 00:26:20,690
他正考虑逐步缩减军事行动

824
00:26:20,690 --> 00:26:21,009
现在

825
00:26:21,009 --> 00:26:22,170
有些人会说这是明智的

826
00:26:22,170 --> 00:26:23,910
有些人会说团队在说谎

827
00:26:23,910 --> 00:26:24,650
顺便说一句

828
00:26:24,650 --> 00:26:25,369
大多数说

829
00:26:25,369 --> 00:26:25,730
呃

830
00:26:25,730 --> 00:26:26,529
团队在说谎

831
00:26:26,529 --> 00:26:28,509
几乎所有人都认为

832
00:26:28,509 --> 00:26:31,049
至少我认识的80%-90%的人都投了特朗普

833
00:26:31,049 --> 00:26:35,400
而他们都开始说特朗普又在推特发言了

834
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:35,740
本质上

835
00:26:35,740 --> 00:26:39,230
所以有趣的是连支持特朗普的人

836
00:26:39,230 --> 00:26:41,910
或在这些情况下发表任何言论的人

837
00:26:41,910 --> 00:26:42,910
但听着

838
00:26:42,910 --> 00:26:45,000
道指已下跌5000点

839
00:26:45,759 --> 00:26:49,279
大家都知道特朗普非常关注股市

840
00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:50,619
他从不隐瞒

841
00:26:50,619 --> 00:26:52,569
我是说他经常在社交媒体上提及

842
00:26:52,569 --> 00:26:53,329
他手头有

843
00:26:53,329 --> 00:26:53,650
她的名字

844
00:26:53,650 --> 00:26:54,250
帕姆·邦迪

845
00:26:54,250 --> 00:26:55,329
或者正在谈论此事的人

846
00:26:55,329 --> 00:26:57,049
当道指最近在50000点时

847
00:26:57,049 --> 00:26:59,170
她说道指曾达到50000点

848
00:26:59,170 --> 00:27:00,509
你应该注意那个

849
00:27:00,509 --> 00:27:02,119
不是别的东西

850
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:02,579
嗯

851
00:27:04,259 --> 00:27:05,380
所以

852
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:07,220
团队成员

853
00:27:07,220 --> 00:27:08,079
如果他

854
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:11,359
如果特朗普准备叫停这件事

855
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,859
市场可能会将其视为积极信号

856
00:27:14,019 --> 00:27:18,900
但我觉得市场真正想看到的是行动

857
00:27:19,069 --> 00:27:22,650
因为市场可能在这里被误导

858
00:27:22,650 --> 00:27:22,990
哦

859
00:27:22,990 --> 00:27:24,500
特朗普说

860
00:27:24,619 --> 00:27:26,059
特朗普说了许多话

861
00:27:26,059 --> 00:27:27,980
但你要看实际行动

862
00:27:27,980 --> 00:27:31,700
仅仅因为特朗普说可能会这样做

863
00:27:31,700 --> 00:27:32,460
可能会那样做

864
00:27:32,460 --> 00:27:33,619
并不意味着他会这么做

865
00:27:33,619 --> 00:27:34,839
如果你注意过

866
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:38,309
这就是你看到的对吧

867
00:27:38,309 --> 00:27:39,670
有时候他说要这么做

868
00:27:39,670 --> 00:27:40,569
却做另一件事

869
00:27:40,569 --> 00:27:42,079
仅仅因为他说

870
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:42,460
哦

871
00:27:42,460 --> 00:27:43,680
我们可能在收尾阶段

872
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:44,079
军事

873
00:27:44,079 --> 00:27:45,279
这并不意味着他们无关

874
00:27:45,279 --> 00:27:47,359
必须观察实际行动

875
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,599
因此市场将关注实际行动

876
00:27:49,599 --> 00:27:52,740
这里是否有实际行动在推进

877
00:27:52,740 --> 00:27:53,400
你知道的

878
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:53,900
呃

879
00:27:53,900 --> 00:27:55,720
军事行动正在逐步收尾

880
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,730
或者这仍将持续下去

881
00:27:57,730 --> 00:27:59,950
没错这就是关键所在

882
00:27:59,950 --> 00:28:02,410
如果真正进入收尾

883
00:28:02,410 --> 00:28:03,219
然后

884
00:28:03,219 --> 00:28:04,078
你知道的

885
00:28:04,078 --> 00:28:05,719
市场可能开始恢复平衡

886
00:28:05,719 --> 00:28:08,289
我们可能已经接近低点

887
00:28:08,289 --> 00:28:09,329
如果并非如此

888
00:28:09,329 --> 00:28:11,509
我认为市场将继续担忧

889
00:28:11,509 --> 00:28:12,690
直到有实际行动

890
00:28:12,690 --> 00:28:14,710
证明他所说的内容

891
00:28:14,710 --> 00:28:17,679
这就是我的看法

892
00:28:17,959 --> 00:28:18,398
是的

893
00:28:18,398 --> 00:28:20,278
这就是我的看法没错所以我们

894
00:28:20,278 --> 00:28:21,479
我们将观察后续发展

895
00:28:21,479 --> 00:28:23,999
但行动比言辞更重要现在

896
00:28:23,999 --> 00:28:24,519
此外

897
00:28:24,519 --> 00:28:25,959
如果你持有大量股票

898
00:28:25,959 --> 00:28:28,519
现在市场简直在喊着低价股

899
00:28:28,519 --> 00:28:30,439
我不仅仅是在说机会

900
00:28:30,439 --> 00:28:31,459
我在市场里

901
00:28:31,459 --> 00:28:34,490
比如Elf和Celsius这些股票

902
00:28:34,490 --> 00:28:37,569
我也在说大家关注的大蓝筹

903
00:28:37,569 --> 00:28:38,769
我在和软银的桑迪对话

904
00:28:38,769 --> 00:28:39,369
微软

905
00:28:39,369 --> 00:28:40,650
稍后我们来谈谈

906
00:28:40,650 --> 00:28:42,589
我觉得这是昨天的反应通道

907
00:28:42,589 --> 00:28:44,109
下午四点软银桑迪

908
00:28:44,109 --> 00:28:47,329
二十一十九福特P

909
00:28:47,329 --> 00:28:48,890
这些公司的增长速度惊人

910
00:28:48,890 --> 00:28:49,410
比如十五

911
00:28:49,410 --> 00:28:53,230
二一十九年四点pm的二十百分比营收增长

912
00:28:53,230 --> 00:28:53,609
嗯

913
00:28:53,609 --> 00:28:55,079
这很有趣

914
00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:59,500
亚马逊二六四点P

915
00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:00,500
嗯

916
00:29:00,500 --> 00:29:01,759
我不确定这个

917
00:29:01,759 --> 00:29:05,940
总之即使是极受欢迎的

918
00:29:05,940 --> 00:29:07,099
微软这类股票

919
00:29:07,099 --> 00:29:07,779
比如Meta

920
00:29:07,779 --> 00:29:12,630
像亚马逊现在定价极具吸引力

921
00:29:12,630 --> 00:29:14,509
现在它们算真正的低价股吗

922
00:29:14,509 --> 00:29:16,648
不，我不这么认为

923
00:29:16,648 --> 00:29:18,749
但可以说定价非常诱人

924
00:29:18,749 --> 00:29:21,759
如果你想投资这类股票

925
00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:25,059
当这些优质公司定价极具吸引力时

926
00:29:25,059 --> 00:29:26,619
很难让市场下跌

927
00:29:26,619 --> 00:29:28,460
现在更是如此

928
00:29:28,460 --> 00:29:29,019
医疗方面

929
00:29:29,019 --> 00:29:30,680
从十九四点P跌到十五

930
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,279
当然一切皆有可能

931
00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:36,039
越来越难压低它们

932
00:29:36,039 --> 00:29:38,160
随着时间推移

933
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,279
一切皆有可能

934
00:29:39,279 --> 00:29:40,539
可能会错过

935
00:29:40,539 --> 00:29:41,000
我说

936
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,480
他们的营收增长率达二十以上

937
00:29:44,099 --> 00:29:44,960
关键点在于

938
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,859
如果Meta营收增长崩溃

939
00:29:47,859 --> 00:29:50,500
假设Meta营收增长从二十五降到

940
00:29:50,500 --> 00:29:54,880
近期的百分之十或五

941
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:55,140
好的

942
00:29:55,140 --> 00:29:56,240
Meta出现大问题

943
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,569
Meta可能大幅下跌

944
00:29:58,569 --> 00:30:00,089
因为他们有疯狂的猫债

945
00:30:00,089 --> 00:30:03,990
然后营收突然只增长七

946
00:30:03,990 --> 00:30:06,689
但这些股票现在定价诱人

947
00:30:06,689 --> 00:30:08,119
在这个时间点上

948
00:30:08,119 --> 00:30:08,740
不

949
00:30:08,740 --> 00:30:10,640
我最近在之前的股票小组里分享过这个观点

950
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,200
我说

951
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,099
始终保持丰裕心态

952
00:30:13,099 --> 00:30:16,119
在股市中你会经历某些时间段

953
00:30:16,119 --> 00:30:19,140
你知道你的投资组合没有创出新高

954
00:30:19,140 --> 00:30:22,089
甚至可能跌至六个月或十二个月的新低

955
00:30:22,089 --> 00:30:24,789
这时可能会陷入匮乏心态

956
00:30:24,789 --> 00:30:26,809
这些情况不会持续太久

957
00:30:26,809 --> 00:30:28,309
保持丰裕心态

958
00:30:28,309 --> 00:30:30,220
市场中资金从未短缺

959
00:30:30,220 --> 00:30:32,559
股市不可能永远赚钱

960
00:30:32,559 --> 00:30:33,880
这就是现实

961
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,130
任何长期参与这个游戏的人

962
00:30:36,130 --> 00:30:37,710
都不会永远赚钱

963
00:30:37,710 --> 00:30:39,269
有时你会连续几个月

964
00:30:39,269 --> 00:30:43,450
可能需要几年时间才能让投资组合再创历史新高

965
00:30:43,450 --> 00:30:45,049
并设定新的历史最高点

966
00:30:45,049 --> 00:30:46,849
你必须接受这一点

967
00:30:46,849 --> 00:30:48,650
无论你多么优秀的投资者

968
00:30:48,650 --> 00:30:50,829
即使是最顶尖的投资者

969
00:30:50,829 --> 00:30:52,490
仍会有时间段

970
00:30:52,490 --> 00:30:54,039
数月或数年

971
00:30:54,039 --> 00:30:55,640
你的投资组合不会突破新

972
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,200
历史最高点

973
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,599
你必须接受这一点保持丰裕

974
00:30:58,599 --> 00:30:59,039
心态

975
00:30:59,039 --> 00:30:59,440
各位

976
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:00,859
市场中资金充裕

977
00:31:00,859 --> 00:31:02,490
赚钱机会很多

978
00:31:02,490 --> 00:31:05,130
至于你的持仓

979
00:31:05,130 --> 00:31:07,750
如果你持有优质公司

980
00:31:07,750 --> 00:31:09,509
在合理或低估价位买入

981
00:31:09,509 --> 00:31:11,049
价值会随时间显现

982
00:31:11,049 --> 00:31:12,890
在这个游戏中保持耐心也很重要

983
00:31:12,890 --> 00:31:15,959
耐心是股市的核心

984
00:31:15,959 --> 00:31:16,318
好的

985
00:31:16,318 --> 00:31:18,439
感谢大家观看今天的视频

986
00:31:18,439 --> 00:31:19,038
一如既往

987
00:31:19,038 --> 00:31:19,459
呃

988
00:31:19,459 --> 00:31:20,578
今天收到了一条留言

989
00:31:20,578 --> 00:31:20,939
再次提醒

990
00:31:20,939 --> 00:31:22,190
获取免费工作坊

991
00:31:22,190 --> 00:31:24,190
可通过邮件或短信发送

992
00:31:24,190 --> 00:31:25,289
无论哪种方式接收

993
00:31:25,289 --> 00:31:26,519
这个内容涵盖

994
00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:29,779
如何在财富各阶段管理投资组合

995
00:31:29,779 --> 00:31:31,400
我觉得大家会非常喜欢

996
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,400
这些技巧、策略和实用方法

997
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,039
我将教你关于那个工作坊的内容

998
00:31:36,039 --> 00:31:38,019
祝你一切顺利，度过美好一天

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