BV19mPrzKEEz · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,140 --> 00:00:04,740 大家好，欢迎回到本期头脑风暴节目 2 00:00:04,740 --> 00:00:09,480 自从我们上次与大家交流以来，发生了许多新闻 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,000 今天我们要首先讨论的主要事件 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,109 是Citron的预言正在成真 5 00:00:15,109 --> 00:00:19,050 Block创始人杰克·多西裁员40%的员工 6 00:00:19,050 --> 00:00:25,010 这是由于AI的影响吗？还是杰克·多西公司的决策 7 00:00:25,010 --> 00:00:30,559 目前仅有两家公司成功大幅裁员且未受影响 8 00:00:30,559 --> 00:00:32,479 就是杰克·多西旗下的公司 9 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:37,390 这是AI的教训还是埃隆·马斯克的效率课 10 00:00:37,390 --> 00:00:38,750 我认为两者都有 11 00:00:38,750 --> 00:00:42,810 我认为其中确实有AI的因素 12 00:00:42,810 --> 00:00:46,838 如果你阅读他发布的文章解释原因 13 00:00:46,838 --> 00:00:48,079 他正在做出这个决定 14 00:00:48,079 --> 00:00:50,420 他实际上只有两个选择 15 00:00:50,420 --> 00:00:53,280 逐步缓慢地进行调整 16 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,939 或今日一次性裁掉40%员工 17 00:00:57,939 --> 00:01:01,780 重新聚焦公司并全员培训AI 18 00:01:01,780 --> 00:01:04,709 确保全体员工支持AI转型 19 00:01:04,709 --> 00:01:05,189 你知道的 20 00:01:05,189 --> 00:01:07,430 回想我们在投资者日的情况 21 00:01:07,430 --> 00:01:12,409 我们清楚AI已融入所有业务 22 00:01:12,409 --> 00:01:14,569 我看到很多分析观点 23 00:01:14,569 --> 00:01:16,250 我们这里也会深入讨论 24 00:01:16,250 --> 00:01:16,890 哦对了 25 00:01:16,890 --> 00:01:18,129 这家公司规模过于臃肿 26 00:01:18,129 --> 00:01:18,909 嗯你 27 00:01:18,909 --> 00:01:19,250 你知道的 28 00:01:19,250 --> 00:01:20,209 指出这一点 29 00:01:20,209 --> 00:01:20,670 是的 30 00:01:20,670 --> 00:01:23,180 这可能确实如此 31 00:01:23,180 --> 00:01:25,400 但也要注意 32 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,439 这家公司Block的每位员工营收 33 00:01:29,439 --> 00:01:31,799 在金融科技领域位居前列 34 00:01:31,799 --> 00:01:32,840 优于Robinhood 35 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:33,719 优于Audion 36 00:01:33,719 --> 00:01:34,760 优于Stripe 37 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,120 优于多数竞争对手 38 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:36,680 Toast 39 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,209 尽管处于巅峰期 40 00:01:38,209 --> 00:01:41,409 或许这说明在1万名员工规模下 41 00:01:41,409 --> 00:01:41,849 确实存在 42 00:01:41,849 --> 00:01:42,530 这并不差 43 00:01:42,530 --> 00:01:43,290 我一直在思考 44 00:01:43,290 --> 00:01:43,510 这个情况 45 00:01:43,510 --> 00:01:46,189 这是否被比特币交易虚高 46 00:01:46,189 --> 00:01:47,900 所以是的 47 00:01:47,900 --> 00:01:49,780 从毛利润来看 48 00:01:49,780 --> 00:01:52,480 裁员前Block的利润达一千万 49 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:53,989 处于行业中间水平 50 00:01:53,989 --> 00:01:56,670 整体营收基础位居中游但更高 51 00:01:56,670 --> 00:01:59,209 但你提到每位员工的营收 52 00:01:59,209 --> 00:02:00,750 由于比特币交易 53 00:02:00,750 --> 00:02:02,189 但现在裁员之后 54 00:02:02,189 --> 00:02:03,530 他们现在排名第二 55 00:02:03,530 --> 00:02:06,010 唯一超过他们的公司实际上是罗宾汉 56 00:02:06,010 --> 00:02:07,629 一亿七百六十万 57 00:02:07,629 --> 00:02:08,189 呃 58 00:02:08,189 --> 00:02:10,270 基于毛利润的每位员工贡献 59 00:02:10,270 --> 00:02:11,289 Block曾一度 60 00:02:11,289 --> 00:02:12,069 七十三 61 00:02:12,069 --> 00:02:12,969 所以现在 62 00:02:12,969 --> 00:02:13,449 你知道的 63 00:02:13,449 --> 00:02:14,069 处于领先地位 64 00:02:14,069 --> 00:02:15,009 他们曾处于中游位置 65 00:02:15,009 --> 00:02:17,199 比PayPal、Stripe的用户群更好 66 00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:19,740 如果继续往下看 67 00:02:19,740 --> 00:02:21,039 这次仅筛选了八家公司 68 00:02:21,039 --> 00:02:24,680 他们在金融科技领域会超过许多公司 69 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,280 而我认为裁员后 70 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,560 未来表现会更佳更高 71 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,280 因为现在团队更小 72 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,449 我认为能推出更多产品 73 00:02:34,449 --> 00:02:35,050 嗯 74 00:02:35,050 --> 00:02:38,629 从而为更多付费用户提供服务 75 00:02:38,629 --> 00:02:39,449 啊 76 00:02:39,449 --> 00:02:42,530 但这并不意味着裁员计划会成功 77 00:02:42,530 --> 00:02:46,508 只是Block会更精简并提升效率 78 00:02:46,508 --> 00:02:48,329 这对所有人有利 79 00:02:48,329 --> 00:02:50,528 甚至对被裁员工也有利 80 00:02:50,528 --> 00:02:52,199 我们这些人无所事事 81 00:02:52,199 --> 00:02:55,120 他们会去寻找更有意义的生活 82 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:56,219 而不是 83 00:02:56,219 --> 00:02:58,509 参加会议无所事事 84 00:02:58,509 --> 00:03:02,389 但这是否在某种程度上 85 00:03:02,550 --> 00:03:05,250 为裁员论点提供了佐证 86 00:03:05,250 --> 00:03:06,490 如果你说 87 00:03:06,490 --> 00:03:07,009 好的 88 00:03:07,009 --> 00:03:10,340 现在有四千名员工失业 89 00:03:10,340 --> 00:03:11,500 他们将去往何处 90 00:03:11,500 --> 00:03:13,889 因为看看其他公司 91 00:03:13,889 --> 00:03:18,490 他们不会用此作为裁员借口吗 92 00:03:18,490 --> 00:03:20,050 因为他们有理由认为 93 00:03:20,050 --> 00:03:23,539 许多企业在疫情后臃肿不堪 94 00:03:23,539 --> 00:03:24,819 仍然臃肿如 95 00:03:24,819 --> 00:03:25,860 你看你说的 96 00:03:25,860 --> 00:03:26,099 是的 97 00:03:26,099 --> 00:03:26,680 我觉得这就是 98 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,300 你提到的关键点 99 00:03:28,300 --> 00:03:29,740 这是核心要素 100 00:03:29,740 --> 00:03:33,039 这是否属于借口 101 00:03:33,039 --> 00:03:35,520 或者这是AI带来的实际生产力爆发 102 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,930 我同意这可能两者都有 103 00:03:37,930 --> 00:03:40,090 但即使没有AI 104 00:03:40,090 --> 00:03:42,449 这些公司都臃肿不堪 105 00:03:42,449 --> 00:03:43,930 别说AI了 106 00:03:43,930 --> 00:03:47,750 你可以裁掉这些公司大量中层管理岗位 107 00:03:47,750 --> 00:03:53,639 这才是真正的负面意义的齐特里尼现象 108 00:03:53,639 --> 00:03:56,750 但你得不到全部的AI生产力红利 109 00:03:56,750 --> 00:03:57,750 如果确实如此 110 00:03:57,750 --> 00:03:59,909 如果确实是因为AI 111 00:03:59,909 --> 00:04:01,469 那就是绝佳情景 112 00:04:01,469 --> 00:04:02,069 这简直 113 00:04:02,069 --> 00:04:06,830 比这些公司突然想要高效运转好得多 114 00:04:06,830 --> 00:04:09,389 现在有了这个X因素 115 00:04:09,389 --> 00:04:13,289 这也是我常忽视的齐特里尼观点 116 00:04:13,289 --> 00:04:15,909 就是疯狂的GDP增长 117 00:04:15,909 --> 00:04:18,170 就像拥有这个神奇工具 118 00:04:18,170 --> 00:04:22,579 能让所有人更高效 119 00:04:22,579 --> 00:04:24,180 这才是关键点 120 00:04:24,180 --> 00:04:27,769 这就是为什么这四千人不会在路边 121 00:04:27,769 --> 00:04:28,930 寻找工作 122 00:04:28,930 --> 00:04:33,569 但他们可以用这个工具创建惊人公司 123 00:04:33,569 --> 00:04:34,850 也许没错 124 00:04:34,850 --> 00:04:36,470 我认为总体来看 125 00:04:36,470 --> 00:04:36,910 那个 126 00:04:36,910 --> 00:04:41,480 齐特里尼文章的核心论点是GDP增长11% 127 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,120 消费增长正在崩溃 128 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,170 这数学上说不通 129 00:04:47,170 --> 00:04:51,750 所以我们同意到本十年末GDP可能超10% 130 00:04:51,750 --> 00:04:55,930 因为我们每天手动驾驶一小时 131 00:04:55,930 --> 00:04:57,329 却未获得报酬 132 00:04:57,329 --> 00:04:57,829 嗯 133 00:04:57,829 --> 00:04:58,209 自动驾驶 134 00:04:58,209 --> 00:05:01,860 出租车将释放出工作时间并让我们乐于 135 00:05:01,860 --> 00:05:02,860 即使不工作 136 00:05:02,860 --> 00:05:05,019 我们也愿意为释放的时间付费 137 00:05:05,019 --> 00:05:06,879 这将计入GDP增长 138 00:05:06,879 --> 00:05:07,500 嗯 139 00:05:07,500 --> 00:05:10,300 顺便说这也会体现在消费端 140 00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:17,620 齐特里尼文章的核心论点是公司花费百万美元雇佣员工 141 00:05:17,620 --> 00:05:23,319 转而投入800万和150万在AI上 142 00:05:23,319 --> 00:05:26,019 因此形成净支出收缩 143 00:05:26,019 --> 00:05:31,860 但投入的150万AI需由数据中心建设支撑 144 00:05:31,860 --> 00:05:33,829 超过150万美元 145 00:05:33,829 --> 00:05:37,529 加上AI公司员工的薪资 146 00:05:37,529 --> 00:05:39,970 存在资源转移 147 00:05:39,970 --> 00:05:41,038 即核心 148 00:05:41,038 --> 00:05:45,980 非AI软件即服务公司被AI公司抢占份额 149 00:05:45,980 --> 00:05:48,699 但被裁员的核心员工 150 00:05:48,699 --> 00:05:52,579 将进入AI行业找到新岗位 151 00:05:52,579 --> 00:05:55,029 嗯，我现在想说的 152 00:05:55,029 --> 00:05:56,930 我觉得这像是一个缩短的时间窗口 153 00:05:56,930 --> 00:06:00,540 不过我认为我们仍在讨论这个问题 154 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:03,019 仿佛人工智能是帮助人类的工具 155 00:06:03,019 --> 00:06:03,939 提高生产力 156 00:06:03,939 --> 00:06:06,720 我认为我们的发展方向是增强系统 157 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:08,699 完全取代个体 158 00:06:08,699 --> 00:06:09,120 你呢 159 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:10,720 现在有一个代理正在为你运行 160 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:11,240 当你坐着的时候 161 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:11,680 我不 162 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,980 但我们的工作和要讨论的内容 163 00:06:14,980 --> 00:06:16,560 所以我花时间来录制 164 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:17,800 这个设计代理已停止 165 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:17,959 我 166 00:06:17,959 --> 00:06:18,519 但我必须继续 167 00:06:18,519 --> 00:06:20,540 我不认为杰克·多西在考虑这个问题 168 00:06:20,540 --> 00:06:21,120 从呃 169 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:22,810 今天的功能有哪些 170 00:06:22,810 --> 00:06:23,810 他在考虑这个问题 171 00:06:23,810 --> 00:06:25,509 两年或三年后的功能 172 00:06:25,509 --> 00:06:27,970 我认为所有公司 173 00:06:27,970 --> 00:06:30,110 每个管理团队都在问同样的问题 174 00:06:30,110 --> 00:06:31,730 人类能做到这个吗 175 00:06:31,730 --> 00:06:33,949 人类能借助AI做得更好吗 176 00:06:33,949 --> 00:06:39,370 或者我可以直接用AI完全取代这个岗位 177 00:06:39,370 --> 00:06:42,189 而我们越讨论这个问题 178 00:06:42,189 --> 00:06:43,410 我越感到困惑 179 00:06:43,410 --> 00:06:46,189 因为你两年前就指出过 180 00:06:46,189 --> 00:06:46,629 听着 181 00:06:46,629 --> 00:06:48,769 今天的情况就是最坏的 182 00:06:48,769 --> 00:06:50,949 这至今仍然成立 183 00:06:50,949 --> 00:06:52,370 这些系统 184 00:06:52,370 --> 00:06:54,209 如果这就是最坏的情况 185 00:06:54,209 --> 00:06:56,329 而我有一个使用AI的时刻 186 00:06:56,329 --> 00:06:57,490 几乎每周都有 187 00:06:57,490 --> 00:06:58,209 当我 188 00:06:58,209 --> 00:06:59,259 天啊 189 00:06:59,259 --> 00:07:01,060 我简直不敢相信它能做到这个 190 00:07:01,060 --> 00:07:03,420 想象六个月后和一年后 191 00:07:03,420 --> 00:07:07,550 这就是为什么这些AI实验室在宣传 192 00:07:07,550 --> 00:07:10,250 说我们即将取代你的工作 193 00:07:10,250 --> 00:07:11,850 他们并没有直接这么说 194 00:07:11,850 --> 00:07:17,550 但本质上是在说我们正在开发完全增强的系统来取代整个岗位 195 00:07:17,550 --> 00:07:18,310 部门 196 00:07:18,310 --> 00:07:20,189 不仅仅是单个岗位 197 00:07:20,189 --> 00:07:21,550 整个部门 198 00:07:21,550 --> 00:07:22,370 直接 199 00:07:22,370 --> 00:07:24,129 幸运的是我们有预测 200 00:07:24,129 --> 00:07:29,129 现在要理解的是AI被充分应用 201 00:07:29,129 --> 00:07:31,129 将他们视为知识工作者 202 00:07:31,129 --> 00:07:31,629 你知道的 203 00:07:31,629 --> 00:07:32,579 广义而言 204 00:07:32,579 --> 00:07:34,620 生产力大约提高50% 205 00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:37,279 因此需要完成一个人类的工作单位 206 00:07:37,279 --> 00:07:38,839 就能获得额外积分 207 00:07:38,839 --> 00:07:42,920 从AI中获取五单位工作量并快进 208 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,540 即使在最乐观情况下也仅达20%-30%利用率 209 00:07:47,540 --> 00:07:52,810 一个人类工作单位可产出十单位AI成果 210 00:07:52,810 --> 00:07:54,889 这种情况下会发生什么 211 00:07:54,889 --> 00:07:57,579 我们将迎来爆炸性经济增长 212 00:07:57,579 --> 00:08:00,589 人类实际获得更高报酬 213 00:08:00,589 --> 00:08:03,029 因为生产量大幅提升 214 00:08:03,029 --> 00:08:03,389 你变得更高效 215 00:08:03,389 --> 00:08:04,629 生产力显著提高 216 00:08:04,629 --> 00:08:10,038 就像拖拉机出现时突然 217 00:08:10,038 --> 00:08:11,598 我们将生产所有作物 218 00:08:11,598 --> 00:08:13,918 因此不再有其他事务可做 219 00:08:13,918 --> 00:08:17,379 但现在会发现其他生产方式 220 00:08:17,379 --> 00:08:19,060 作为经济中的劳动力 221 00:08:19,060 --> 00:08:22,920 而劳动力部分仍为核心 222 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,519 成为AI任务的分配者 223 00:08:25,519 --> 00:08:26,420 我在引导方向 224 00:08:26,420 --> 00:08:30,029 这在经济上更为关键 225 00:08:30,029 --> 00:08:32,639 因此劳动力实际获得 226 00:08:32,639 --> 00:08:33,799 每小时而言 227 00:08:33,799 --> 00:08:37,539 听众能获得更高相对工资 228 00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:38,960 我认为这很重要 229 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:40,519 退后一步看 230 00:08:40,519 --> 00:08:42,039 弧线提前预测极为罕见 231 00:08:42,039 --> 00:08:45,320 这种情况 232 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:49,639 预测过早 233 00:08:49,639 --> 00:08:51,039 我们 234 00:08:51,039 --> 00:08:51,460 我们 235 00:08:51,460 --> 00:08:51,860 我们 236 00:08:51,860 --> 00:08:53,179 我们已投入数小时 237 00:08:53,179 --> 00:08:53,720 我们 238 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:54,879 我们相当激进 239 00:08:54,879 --> 00:08:59,240 而布雷特认为并非如此 240 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:00,769 需要更长时间 241 00:09:00,769 --> 00:09:02,049 你却说不 242 00:09:02,049 --> 00:09:02,769 即将发生 243 00:09:02,769 --> 00:09:03,789 这就是关键 244 00:09:03,789 --> 00:09:04,870 我不认同这些 245 00:09:04,870 --> 00:09:05,649 这就是我说的 246 00:09:05,649 --> 00:09:07,429 值得特别指出 247 00:09:07,429 --> 00:09:08,070 因为这 248 00:09:08,070 --> 00:09:10,039 完全相反于 249 00:09:10,039 --> 00:09:13,519 我们所有关于建模的讨论 250 00:09:13,519 --> 00:09:14,620 但我认为 251 00:09:14,620 --> 00:09:19,919 因为我认为，最接近前沿的个体 252 00:09:19,919 --> 00:09:21,120 就像我们现在看到的 253 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,679 这已经商业可用 254 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,279 这可能落后于当前一代或两代的技术 255 00:09:25,279 --> 00:09:25,840 达里奥 256 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,220 埃万·萨姆·阿尔特曼 257 00:09:27,220 --> 00:09:28,240 他们都能够获取 258 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,919 这些正在OpenAI、Anthropic、XAI背后运行的技术 259 00:09:31,919 --> 00:09:35,000 他们正在推动这个理念 260 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,720 这不是克里尼的想法凭空出现 261 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,759 这不是什么魔法般的构想 262 00:09:39,759 --> 00:09:41,740 达里奥在那里提出 263 00:09:41,740 --> 00:09:45,620 过去两年一直在说失业率将超过10% 264 00:09:45,620 --> 00:09:46,019 是的 265 00:09:46,019 --> 00:09:48,100 他们为何要这么说 266 00:09:48,100 --> 00:09:48,460 根本 267 00:09:48,460 --> 00:09:51,639 如果他们不认为可能发生这种情况 268 00:09:51,639 --> 00:09:55,870 向希望降低成本的公司推销产品的好方法 269 00:09:55,870 --> 00:09:58,769 就是声称此产品能替代人工岗位 270 00:09:58,769 --> 00:09:59,409 但他同样 271 00:09:59,409 --> 00:10:01,980 我认为达里奥并非优秀的宏观经济学家 272 00:10:01,980 --> 00:10:04,259 但能替代岗位功能吗 273 00:10:04,259 --> 00:10:05,120 我正在使用 274 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,659 我明白了 275 00:10:06,659 --> 00:10:08,539 这让我自己感到有点可怕 276 00:10:08,539 --> 00:10:09,840 根据我的亲身经历 277 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:10,059 嗯 278 00:10:10,059 --> 00:10:12,299 我需要自己提升技能 279 00:10:12,299 --> 00:10:14,220 根据我的亲身经历 280 00:10:14,220 --> 00:10:14,659 我正在做 281 00:10:14,659 --> 00:10:19,090 我正在做更多工作并产出更复杂的内容 282 00:10:19,090 --> 00:10:21,899 感到必须如此 283 00:10:21,899 --> 00:10:24,120 因为在竞争激烈的创意市场中 284 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:29,009 这里存在巨大潜力去建模事物 285 00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:31,529 而当前世界尚未被充分建模 286 00:10:31,529 --> 00:10:35,870 嗯，这正在各个领域发生 287 00:10:35,870 --> 00:10:36,429 你知道的 288 00:10:36,429 --> 00:10:38,029 经济中的多个职能领域 289 00:10:38,029 --> 00:10:40,309 包括身处大公司的人员 290 00:10:40,309 --> 00:10:40,809 他们说 291 00:10:40,809 --> 00:10:41,190 啊 292 00:10:41,190 --> 00:10:41,509 天啊 293 00:10:41,509 --> 00:10:42,950 我仿佛在看油漆变干 294 00:10:42,950 --> 00:10:44,889 我本可以在世界中做更多事情 295 00:10:44,889 --> 00:10:45,950 他们解雇了那个人 296 00:10:45,950 --> 00:10:46,450 他们说 297 00:10:46,450 --> 00:10:46,990 谢天谢地 298 00:10:46,990 --> 00:10:47,830 我拿到了遣散费 299 00:10:47,830 --> 00:10:50,090 然后我可以去打造非凡事业 300 00:10:50,090 --> 00:10:51,889 如果观察早期阶段 301 00:10:51,889 --> 00:10:53,070 人工智能软件公司 302 00:10:53,070 --> 00:10:55,210 他们的收入增长令人震惊 303 00:10:55,210 --> 00:10:57,409 比我们见过的任何事物都高得多 304 00:10:57,409 --> 00:10:58,669 所以净来看 305 00:10:58,669 --> 00:11:02,190 我认为肯定会有某些职业类别 306 00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:04,029 不再那么重要 307 00:11:04,029 --> 00:11:05,149 从宏观经济角度 308 00:11:05,149 --> 00:11:08,370 这些特定领域的人群将会转移 309 00:11:08,370 --> 00:11:12,490 看看1990年的旅行社 310 00:11:12,490 --> 00:11:16,509 美国目前仍有13.2万旅行社从业者 311 00:11:16,509 --> 00:11:19,090 经历互联网冲击等一切变化后 312 00:11:19,090 --> 00:11:21,350 仍有超过8万旅行社从业者 313 00:11:21,350 --> 00:11:22,389 这数量相当庞大 314 00:11:22,389 --> 00:11:23,789 我甚至不知道他们具体做什么 315 00:11:23,789 --> 00:11:25,559 但岗位被压缩了 316 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,320 整体薪资水平也下降 317 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,139 不再那么有价值的功能 318 00:11:30,139 --> 00:11:36,250 这段时间内美国航空和酒店支出 319 00:11:40,159 --> 00:11:45,538 按实际价值计算，Expedia、Airbnb等 320 00:11:45,538 --> 00:11:46,739 这些公司相继崛起 321 00:11:46,739 --> 00:11:48,198 在这些三家公司中 322 00:11:48,198 --> 00:11:53,169 薪资支出超过1990年旅行社从业者 323 00:11:53,169 --> 00:11:56,450 集体价值约2750亿美元 324 00:11:56,450 --> 00:12:00,970 创造了全新的公司和行业 325 00:12:00,970 --> 00:12:05,090 部分替代了特定职能 326 00:12:05,090 --> 00:12:07,110 最终支付更多工资 327 00:12:07,110 --> 00:12:10,590 将这种趋势扩展到所有事务 328 00:12:10,590 --> 00:12:11,490 以及他人所做的工作 329 00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:12,740 我认为这就是发展方向 330 00:12:12,740 --> 00:12:15,379 这是完全的智能替代 331 00:12:15,379 --> 00:12:18,659 我认为这与以往所有类比不同 332 00:12:18,659 --> 00:12:23,340 此前所有工具都是辅助工作 333 00:12:23,340 --> 00:12:26,340 你所说的完全智能替代 334 00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:29,350 我从AI公司购买服务 335 00:12:29,350 --> 00:12:31,370 如果是完全智能替代 336 00:12:31,370 --> 00:12:33,350 资金必须流向那里 337 00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:37,419 启动一组自主推土机或Optimus机器人 338 00:12:37,419 --> 00:12:39,299 去建造数据中心 339 00:12:39,299 --> 00:12:41,419 安装数据中心服务我 340 00:12:41,419 --> 00:12:43,019 购买AI服务的用户 341 00:12:43,019 --> 00:12:44,190 但这并非 342 00:12:44,190 --> 00:12:46,370 我们还没有Optimus机器人 343 00:12:46,370 --> 00:12:48,129 或自主推土机 344 00:12:48,129 --> 00:12:51,230 或可谈判的自主AI代理 345 00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:54,460 汽车离我说的还很远 346 00:12:54,460 --> 00:12:56,559 我指的是白领工作 347 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,960 工作中大部分是提示操作 348 00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:00,639 我对此感到担忧 349 00:13:00,639 --> 00:13:01,299 每个人的工作都会受影响 350 00:13:01,299 --> 00:13:02,159 尼克还是不 351 00:13:02,159 --> 00:13:04,039 你只是个存在 352 00:13:04,490 --> 00:13:06,730 我说的是中期评估 353 00:13:08,009 --> 00:13:10,350 我说的是已经足够 354 00:13:10,350 --> 00:13:14,779 可能有足够的岗位流失引发短期问题 355 00:13:14,779 --> 00:13:18,620 像Block这样的公司可能增长40% 356 00:13:18,620 --> 00:13:21,570 这对经济来说是谁的问题 357 00:13:21,570 --> 00:13:25,179 如果在重新培训前就有替代者出现 358 00:13:25,179 --> 00:13:26,980 这就是需要重新培训的问题 359 00:13:26,980 --> 00:13:27,759 他们只需要使用 360 00:13:27,759 --> 00:13:28,340 AI不 361 00:13:28,340 --> 00:13:28,500 是的 362 00:13:28,500 --> 00:13:28,820 你不需要 363 00:13:28,820 --> 00:13:30,840 但公司不会为了使用 364 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,149 AI如果能让公司内部人员直接完成工作 365 00:13:35,149 --> 00:13:40,269 或让后台代理自主处理话题收尾 366 00:13:40,269 --> 00:13:41,409 这并不令人意外 367 00:13:41,409 --> 00:13:44,080 这里可能会看到更多知识工作者裁员 368 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,779 我认为很多公司存在臃肿 369 00:13:45,779 --> 00:13:49,769 现有企业有大量生产力潜力 370 00:13:49,769 --> 00:13:53,149 我认为会出现大量新兴 371 00:13:53,149 --> 00:13:58,519 类似生产出色产品和服务的AI原生初创公司 372 00:13:58,519 --> 00:14:01,179 将高效调配所有劳动力 373 00:14:01,179 --> 00:14:01,379 以 374 00:14:01,379 --> 00:14:02,539 仅需一两名员工 375 00:14:02,539 --> 00:14:02,990 不过 376 00:14:02,990 --> 00:14:04,809 不需要上百或两百人 377 00:14:04,809 --> 00:14:05,750 好的是 378 00:14:05,750 --> 00:14:06,190 我们可以 379 00:14:06,190 --> 00:14:09,649 我们可以追踪并实时显示 380 00:14:09,649 --> 00:14:11,769 现在有一个市场预测 381 00:14:11,769 --> 00:14:16,529 Citrini情景会发生吗 当前交易价13点 382 00:14:16,529 --> 00:14:17,649 九个百分点 383 00:14:17,649 --> 00:14:17,990 好的 384 00:14:17,990 --> 00:14:18,750 但没错 385 00:14:18,750 --> 00:14:19,629 你进去看看 386 00:14:19,629 --> 00:14:20,110 嗯 387 00:14:20,110 --> 00:14:23,100 这是仔细阅读合同的重要原因 388 00:14:23,100 --> 00:14:25,820 因为Citrini情景让我抓狂的是 389 00:14:25,820 --> 00:14:29,239 消费崩溃导致GDP增长10% 390 00:14:29,239 --> 00:14:31,698 这在宏观经济上毫无道理 391 00:14:31,698 --> 00:14:32,899 如果阅读这份合同 392 00:14:32,899 --> 00:14:36,570 核心问题是否严重失业 393 00:14:36,570 --> 00:14:38,309 是否存在消费崩溃 394 00:14:38,309 --> 00:14:40,429 这本质上是 395 00:14:40,429 --> 00:14:40,629 是否 396 00:14:40,629 --> 00:14:43,529 我们正经历严重衰退或大萧条 397 00:14:43,529 --> 00:14:45,950 却无AI带来的积极影响 398 00:14:45,950 --> 00:14:46,710 好的 399 00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:50,230 我将在此切换到预测市场 400 00:14:50,230 --> 00:14:52,649 周末发生了很多事情 401 00:14:53,129 --> 00:14:54,529 伊朗发生了事 402 00:14:54,529 --> 00:15:03,210 有人预测伊朗领导层是否会被罢免 403 00:15:04,590 --> 00:15:05,309 发生了什么 404 00:15:05,309 --> 00:15:05,710 尼克 405 00:15:07,110 --> 00:15:07,799 看起来 406 00:15:07,799 --> 00:15:08,519 是的 407 00:15:08,519 --> 00:15:10,179 结果就是必须读规则 408 00:15:10,179 --> 00:15:13,639 我们正在讨论calcishi市场和citrini 409 00:15:13,639 --> 00:15:16,639 但这也是需要读规则的又一例证 410 00:15:16,639 --> 00:15:21,379 很明显这会是问题的延续 411 00:15:21,379 --> 00:15:23,960 我认为这是预测市场中长期存在的问题 412 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,340 但规则明确规定 413 00:15:32,450 --> 00:15:34,429 市场将判定为已知结果 414 00:15:35,470 --> 00:15:36,850 人们下注很积极 415 00:15:36,850 --> 00:15:37,210 等等不 416 00:15:37,210 --> 00:15:37,409 不 417 00:15:37,409 --> 00:15:38,590 市场将判定结果 418 00:15:38,590 --> 00:15:42,649 市场将在特定时间以相应比例结算 419 00:15:42,649 --> 00:15:44,389 并非判定为已知结果 420 00:15:44,389 --> 00:15:44,799 是的 421 00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:47,039 就像有70%的概率 422 00:15:47,039 --> 00:15:49,710 他会在年底前离职并去世 423 00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:52,070 然后若按70%赔付 424 00:15:52,070 --> 00:15:56,970 这在部分原因上源于CFTC对预测市场的规定 425 00:15:56,970 --> 00:15:59,799 不能促成暗杀市场 426 00:15:59,799 --> 00:16:01,980 不能促成任何暴力相关市场 427 00:16:01,980 --> 00:16:05,230 这些条款已写入合约 428 00:16:05,230 --> 00:16:09,559 必须排除死亡可能性 429 00:16:09,559 --> 00:16:11,919 因此这是一个典型案例 430 00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:15,710 ksi因此受到巨大 backlash 431 00:16:15,710 --> 00:16:17,309 我认为这 432 00:16:17,309 --> 00:16:20,769 这些市场需要更好的透明度和工具 433 00:16:20,769 --> 00:16:22,860 因为这种情况反复发生 434 00:16:22,860 --> 00:16:23,980 完全透明 435 00:16:23,980 --> 00:16:26,500 啊，arc是kali投资者 436 00:16:26,500 --> 00:16:28,379 在我们部分策略中 437 00:16:28,379 --> 00:16:30,460 他们在这方面堪称最佳 438 00:16:30,460 --> 00:16:31,419 但总的来说 439 00:16:31,419 --> 00:16:33,129 当这些市场处于焦点时 440 00:16:33,129 --> 00:16:34,570 它们正在突破边界 441 00:16:34,570 --> 00:16:36,870 这些市场不断被创新 442 00:16:36,870 --> 00:16:40,860 你知道每天都会有此类问题 443 00:16:40,860 --> 00:16:43,519 这需要逐步解决 444 00:16:43,519 --> 00:16:47,370 并提供清晰的教育指导 445 00:16:47,370 --> 00:16:49,629 如何理解这些市场 446 00:16:49,629 --> 00:16:51,149 务必打开文档 447 00:16:51,149 --> 00:16:53,470 务必阅读所有隐含内容 448 00:16:53,470 --> 00:16:53,990 查看页脚说明 449 00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:57,309 你知道这不仅仅是问题表面那么简单 450 00:16:57,309 --> 00:16:58,129 你知道的 451 00:16:58,129 --> 00:16:58,710 请阅读规则 452 00:16:58,710 --> 00:16:59,789 必须阅读规则 453 00:16:59,789 --> 00:17:00,110 好的 454 00:17:00,110 --> 00:17:02,669 但我想理解暴力行为是 455 00:17:02,669 --> 00:17:05,549 我认为这非常容易理解 456 00:17:05,549 --> 00:17:06,049 没错 457 00:17:06,049 --> 00:17:08,000 你不想那样的市场 458 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,559 没错 你不希望鼓励暗杀 459 00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:12,700 我更不确定的是 460 00:17:12,700 --> 00:17:19,089 关于预测市场的内幕交易已经有很多反对声音 461 00:17:19,089 --> 00:17:23,009 我知道发生过一些政治事件 462 00:17:23,009 --> 00:17:30,599 但在我看来 预测市场是揭示内幕信息的途径 463 00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:32,000 而这正是其价值所在 464 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:32,359 这里 465 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,549 就是让知情者能够 466 00:17:35,549 --> 00:17:38,089 而不直接透露所知内容 467 00:17:38,089 --> 00:17:40,349 通过美元价值表达 468 00:17:40,349 --> 00:17:40,849 是的 469 00:17:40,849 --> 00:17:43,210 所以第一个论点是 470 00:17:43,210 --> 00:17:46,809 禁止股票市场内幕交易的论点 471 00:17:46,809 --> 00:17:47,650 例如 472 00:17:47,650 --> 00:17:50,890 是希望股票市场能够 473 00:17:50,890 --> 00:17:51,670 嗯 474 00:17:51,670 --> 00:17:53,990 被信任且流动性强 475 00:17:53,990 --> 00:17:56,138 因此 476 00:17:56,138 --> 00:17:59,778 这样才能为企业提供运营资本 477 00:17:59,778 --> 00:18:01,690 而如果有内幕交易 478 00:18:01,690 --> 00:18:03,329 人们会失去对市场的信任 479 00:18:03,329 --> 00:18:05,329 从而减少市场流动性 480 00:18:05,329 --> 00:18:08,640 企业就无法利用市场融资 481 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,799 因此必须禁止内幕交易 482 00:18:10,799 --> 00:18:12,279 但在商品市场 483 00:18:12,279 --> 00:18:13,960 也就是你所知道的 484 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:15,779 这些被视为预测市场 485 00:18:15,779 --> 00:18:18,039 不需要相同考量 486 00:18:18,039 --> 00:18:24,818 因为企业并未直接利用这些市场融资 487 00:18:24,818 --> 00:18:28,798 只需反映真实内幕信息 488 00:18:28,798 --> 00:18:34,358 以便企业根据市场信息进行资源配置 489 00:18:34,358 --> 00:18:34,999 基于这个价格 490 00:18:34,999 --> 00:18:36,079 没错 491 00:18:36,559 --> 00:18:38,539 内幕交易不应被允许 492 00:18:38,539 --> 00:18:40,519 而在预测市场中 493 00:18:40,519 --> 00:18:41,259 不应被允许 494 00:18:41,259 --> 00:18:42,619 因为问题在于 495 00:18:42,619 --> 00:18:44,079 如何划定界限 496 00:18:44,079 --> 00:18:47,039 当个人能影响市场时 497 00:18:47,039 --> 00:18:50,299 这里需要明确界限 498 00:18:50,299 --> 00:18:52,440 因为已有相关案例 499 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,609 这些下注的人有能力影响结果 500 00:18:57,609 --> 00:18:58,869 所以你可以成为这样的人 501 00:18:58,869 --> 00:19:01,269 你知道在体育比赛中经常能看到 502 00:19:01,269 --> 00:19:02,269 体育博彩 503 00:19:02,269 --> 00:19:02,849 当你拥有 504 00:19:02,849 --> 00:19:06,029 如果个人球员在为自己押注 505 00:19:06,029 --> 00:19:08,470 这不应该影响其完整性的发展 506 00:19:08,470 --> 00:19:12,000 我同意，你不应该赌自己能控制的事 507 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,000 但如果你在房间内担任助手 508 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,079 并听到某些信息 509 00:19:15,079 --> 00:19:16,170 然后就是 510 00:19:16,170 --> 00:19:16,609 是的 511 00:19:16,609 --> 00:19:17,049 你应该 512 00:19:17,049 --> 00:19:18,009 如果你想赚钱 513 00:19:18,009 --> 00:19:18,410 你应该 514 00:19:18,410 --> 00:19:21,549 然后这就是给其他人更好的信息信号 515 00:19:21,549 --> 00:19:23,769 希望cc没在看这一集 516 00:19:23,769 --> 00:19:24,710 但山姆 517 00:19:24,710 --> 00:19:25,230 你将会 518 00:19:25,230 --> 00:19:28,440 你全押所有底池，盲注可能也不喜欢 519 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:29,680 如果你拥有 520 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:35,569 如果存在允许任何信息流通的预测市场 521 00:19:35,569 --> 00:19:39,920 它不会在其他市场中抢占份额吗 522 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,480 以及它的实用性 523 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,539 这是不是暴露内部信息 524 00:19:45,539 --> 00:19:46,000 我同意 525 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,969 存在这样的问题 526 00:19:47,969 --> 00:19:48,528 你知道的 527 00:19:48,528 --> 00:19:49,489 如果我是最 528 00:19:49,489 --> 00:19:50,868 如果我是ceo 529 00:19:50,868 --> 00:19:52,489 能够控制 530 00:19:52,489 --> 00:19:53,169 呃 531 00:19:53,169 --> 00:19:53,608 哦 532 00:19:53,608 --> 00:19:55,410 你确切说过多少次 533 00:19:55,410 --> 00:19:56,569 你到底说过多少次 534 00:19:56,569 --> 00:19:57,609 你知道那个有趣词汇 535 00:19:57,609 --> 00:19:58,369 但我的意思是 536 00:19:58,369 --> 00:20:01,868 我认为这就是需要严格规则的原因 537 00:20:01,868 --> 00:20:05,348 因为界限会很快模糊 538 00:20:05,348 --> 00:20:06,689 比如谁影响了什么 539 00:20:06,689 --> 00:20:08,108 这里信息外泄了 540 00:20:08,108 --> 00:20:09,670 这个人就像你知道的 541 00:20:09,670 --> 00:20:11,309 内幕交易周围有严格规定 542 00:20:11,309 --> 00:20:12,829 什么是内幕交易 543 00:20:12,829 --> 00:20:15,000 在股票市场中什么不是 544 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,240 我不知道如何将其应用到所有领域 545 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,180 我认为你知道的 546 00:20:19,180 --> 00:20:23,200 如果我要回到arc研究所的预测市场研究 547 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:28,400 我认为这就是为什么在股票市场周围建立预测市场 548 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,690 围绕个别公司很有意义 549 00:20:30,690 --> 00:20:31,289 长期来看 550 00:20:31,289 --> 00:20:33,869 因为你是在现有规则和监管基础上搭便车 551 00:20:33,869 --> 00:20:36,950 所以我对预测市场非常看好 552 00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:37,829 长期而言 553 00:20:37,829 --> 00:20:40,660 我认为当今许多市场无法持续 554 00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:42,539 部分原因是我们讨论过的问题 555 00:20:42,539 --> 00:20:44,440 我实在不知道该如何监管这 556 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,609 而不必完全关闭这些市场 557 00:20:47,609 --> 00:20:53,170 不过我认为它们会通过围绕高度监管的行业 558 00:20:53,170 --> 00:20:56,109 在规则明确的领域进行操作 559 00:20:56,109 --> 00:20:56,589 你知道的 560 00:20:56,589 --> 00:20:57,529 比如股票市场 561 00:20:57,529 --> 00:20:58,150 例如 562 00:20:58,150 --> 00:21:00,940 我一直在内部使用的例子是特斯拉 563 00:21:00,940 --> 00:21:04,240 特斯拉正在发生各种事件 564 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,299 这些催化剂事件我们内部正在建模分析 565 00:21:08,299 --> 00:21:10,200 当乐观主义者的产品何时商用 566 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,650 自动驾驶出租车何时全国推广 567 00:21:12,650 --> 00:21:17,670 我认为这些未来都会成为高流动性的预测市场 568 00:21:17,670 --> 00:21:20,659 并且清楚什么允许什么不允许 569 00:21:20,659 --> 00:21:22,318 涉及内幕交易时 570 00:21:22,318 --> 00:21:24,338 这就是我的观点 571 00:21:24,338 --> 00:21:28,410 我认为关于预测市场的叙事过于聚焦 572 00:21:28,410 --> 00:21:32,009 那些缺乏长期机会的市场 573 00:21:32,009 --> 00:21:35,190 但如果仅从交易量来看 574 00:21:35,190 --> 00:21:37,660 即使今天讨论的热点 575 00:21:37,660 --> 00:21:38,579 集中在体育博彩 576 00:21:38,579 --> 00:21:39,660 占九成交易量 577 00:21:39,660 --> 00:21:41,990 预测市场主要在体育博彩中 578 00:21:41,990 --> 00:21:43,930 全球体育博彩 579 00:21:43,930 --> 00:21:45,569 若包含灰色市场 580 00:21:45,569 --> 00:21:48,089 可能年交易额达五千亿 581 00:21:48,089 --> 00:21:49,740 按交易量计算的行业规模 582 00:21:49,740 --> 00:21:51,539 与股票相关的衍生品 583 00:21:51,539 --> 00:21:52,339 大宗商品 584 00:21:52,339 --> 00:21:56,230 当前衍生品市场涉及的所有领域 585 00:21:56,230 --> 00:22:00,049 这是一个七万五千亿的机遇 586 00:22:00,049 --> 00:22:04,269 只需从中提取百分之一或基点 587 00:22:04,269 --> 00:22:07,529 预测市场就可能获得万亿级机遇 588 00:22:07,529 --> 00:22:09,529 无需处理所有复杂问题 589 00:22:09,529 --> 00:22:09,910 这些 590 00:22:09,910 --> 00:22:12,619 这些复杂的内幕交易问题 591 00:22:12,619 --> 00:22:13,920 最终会存在 592 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:15,799 我认为会有反弹 593 00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:19,229 因为会损害市场信誉 594 00:22:19,229 --> 00:22:22,009 当内幕交易发生时 595 00:22:22,009 --> 00:22:23,950 支持预测市场的论点 596 00:22:24,230 --> 00:22:27,819 随着市场更真实和实用 597 00:22:27,819 --> 00:22:32,630 它们实际上可以成为企业融资的工具 598 00:22:32,630 --> 00:22:37,069 因此需要人们信任并提供充足流动性 599 00:22:37,069 --> 00:22:37,980 所以这样 600 00:22:37,980 --> 00:22:38,680 例如 601 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,440 该公司合作伙伴可以成功对冲风险 602 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,659 想象你是一个服务提供商 603 00:22:45,659 --> 00:22:46,459 到特斯拉的机器人 604 00:22:46,459 --> 00:22:46,979 出租车业务 605 00:22:48,259 --> 00:22:48,578 嗯 606 00:22:48,578 --> 00:22:51,490 你需要能与他们签订合同 607 00:22:51,490 --> 00:22:52,289 呃 608 00:22:52,289 --> 00:22:55,809 并保护自己免受他们无法交付软件的风险 609 00:22:55,809 --> 00:22:57,730 这实际上能让车辆正常运行 610 00:22:57,730 --> 00:22:58,779 在这个例子中 611 00:22:58,779 --> 00:22:59,259 难道不是吗 612 00:22:59,259 --> 00:22:59,500 然后 613 00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:02,980 应该监管行业而非预测市场 614 00:23:02,980 --> 00:23:04,059 就像体育博彩 615 00:23:04,059 --> 00:23:04,940 存在体育博彩 616 00:23:04,940 --> 00:23:06,500 关于内幕信息的规定 617 00:23:06,500 --> 00:23:06,880 是的 618 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:07,420 这太好了 619 00:23:07,420 --> 00:23:08,920 做这样的股票 620 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:09,719 就是这样 621 00:23:09,719 --> 00:23:15,199 但这是四个监管外的事物 622 00:23:15,199 --> 00:23:16,118 就像 623 00:23:16,118 --> 00:23:16,759 然后我意思是 624 00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:18,558 你需要加入监管 625 00:23:18,558 --> 00:23:19,038 仅仅因为你知道 626 00:23:19,038 --> 00:23:20,759 但我觉得我不认为你应该 627 00:23:20,759 --> 00:23:22,338 当你下注时 628 00:23:22,338 --> 00:23:22,759 是的 629 00:23:22,759 --> 00:23:25,319 这意味着你可以更快发现不良行为 630 00:23:25,319 --> 00:23:27,259 正是因此体育博彩 631 00:23:27,259 --> 00:23:31,549 合法化体育博彩比非法更合理 632 00:23:31,549 --> 00:23:32,869 因为可以操纵比分 633 00:23:32,869 --> 00:23:35,269 所有这些开始浮现的不良行为 634 00:23:35,269 --> 00:23:37,369 这些可能一直在发生 635 00:23:37,369 --> 00:23:38,490 只是未被发现 636 00:23:38,490 --> 00:23:41,150 因为是与当地庄家的现金交易 637 00:23:41,150 --> 00:23:41,430 没错 638 00:23:41,430 --> 00:23:45,150 比如强迫大学生篡改比赛结果 639 00:23:45,150 --> 00:23:46,950 现在下注时 640 00:23:46,950 --> 00:23:49,869 如果他们这样操作就像去年发生的情况 641 00:23:49,869 --> 00:23:52,690 在DraftKings或FanDuel下注 642 00:23:52,690 --> 00:23:56,029 系统会立即标记异常流量 643 00:23:56,029 --> 00:23:57,490 指出这是不正常的 644 00:23:57,490 --> 00:24:00,849 现在预测市场也会发生类似情况 645 00:24:00,849 --> 00:24:05,789 但区别是这些市场此前未存在于这些行业 646 00:24:05,789 --> 00:24:06,049 比如 647 00:24:06,049 --> 00:24:06,470 你知道的 648 00:24:06,470 --> 00:24:11,009 最近内幕交易案例涉及MrBeast员工 649 00:24:11,009 --> 00:24:11,250 是的 650 00:24:11,250 --> 00:24:13,609 我没有深入探究到底发生了什么 651 00:24:13,609 --> 00:24:17,759 但那些市场根本不存在这种活动发生的可能 652 00:24:17,759 --> 00:24:20,259 所以在某种程度上有所不同 653 00:24:20,259 --> 00:24:23,849 但我觉得电影从一开始就一直在说 654 00:24:23,849 --> 00:24:26,909 监管网红 655 00:24:27,148 --> 00:24:30,888 监管一切但让猫从后门溜走 656 00:24:30,888 --> 00:24:31,469 你知道我不 657 00:24:31,469 --> 00:24:32,489 我不知道如何回头 658 00:24:32,489 --> 00:24:34,348 我的意思是可能必须倒退 659 00:24:34,348 --> 00:24:36,740 法规生效 660 00:24:36,740 --> 00:24:37,259 你知道的 661 00:24:37,259 --> 00:24:39,130 安排妥当 662 00:24:39,130 --> 00:24:43,329 我们接下来三分钟是否要讨论人类中心主义 663 00:24:43,329 --> 00:24:44,930 还是在这里结束 664 00:24:44,930 --> 00:24:47,740 然后各自继续行程 665 00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:50,779 我的意思是简要提及人类中心主义 666 00:24:50,779 --> 00:24:51,259 嗯 667 00:24:54,809 --> 00:24:56,549 正如现在所称 668 00:24:56,549 --> 00:24:58,730 因为他们试图 669 00:24:58,730 --> 00:24:59,410 嗯 670 00:24:59,410 --> 00:25:03,859 限制国防部使用他们的爪形模型 671 00:25:03,859 --> 00:25:05,380 嗯还有 672 00:25:05,380 --> 00:25:05,799 该部门 673 00:25:05,799 --> 00:25:06,619 当然拒绝了 674 00:25:06,619 --> 00:25:08,279 你们不能对我们设限 675 00:25:08,279 --> 00:25:11,980 至少在法律要求之外 676 00:25:11,980 --> 00:25:15,420 于是他们公开决裂 677 00:25:15,420 --> 00:25:20,200 我认为XAI已经签署了协议 678 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:27,769 S以及OpenAI也宣布签署了协议 679 00:25:27,769 --> 00:25:32,700 这你应该知道吧 680 00:25:32,700 --> 00:25:35,119 说起来没道理 681 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,440 我要向政府出售这项服务 682 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:43,539 然后作为CEO保留终止服务的权利 683 00:25:43,539 --> 00:25:44,319 任意决定 684 00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:46,119 因为我对你们的行为感到不安 685 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,529 要么必须 686 00:25:47,529 --> 00:25:49,069 依法行事 687 00:25:49,069 --> 00:25:51,880 在政府允许的范围内还是不 688 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,400 他们似乎对此很不安 689 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,240 或许留到以后再说 690 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,160 我知道你曾 691 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,500 我也讨论过这个 692 00:25:58,500 --> 00:26:00,400 我曾和同事外的友人讨论过 693 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,440 但公司作为未来 694 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,519 主权实体 695 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,539 过去曾发生过 696 00:26:06,539 --> 00:26:08,259 这是我们的方向吗 697 00:26:08,259 --> 00:26:09,720 像这样的情况 698 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:14,349 印度东贸易公司之类的，这就是我们要去的方向吗 699 00:26:14,349 --> 00:26:15,369 我是说 700 00:26:15,369 --> 00:26:17,750 或许以马斯克的企业为例 701 00:26:17,750 --> 00:26:24,349 比如太空资产和潜在火星殖民可能相当于 702 00:26:24,349 --> 00:26:25,509 嗯，好吧 703 00:26:25,509 --> 00:26:26,430 我们将深入探讨 704 00:26:26,430 --> 00:26:30,640 我认为我们应该寻找历史上发生过这种情况的例子 705 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:31,839 因为我觉得这 706 00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:33,279 有很多例子 707 00:26:33,279 --> 00:26:35,339 但回到类目案例 708 00:26:35,339 --> 00:26:35,960 确实如此 709 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,940 你看数据里很明显 710 00:26:37,940 --> 00:26:39,900 至少从应用商店的角度 711 00:26:39,900 --> 00:26:41,369 Claude实现了跃升 712 00:26:41,369 --> 00:26:42,789 它实际上从 713 00:26:42,789 --> 00:26:44,430 曾一度跌出前十 714 00:26:44,430 --> 00:26:46,710 从免费应用到如今登顶 715 00:26:46,710 --> 00:26:47,809 位居聊天类榜首 716 00:26:47,809 --> 00:26:48,730 GPT 717 00:26:48,730 --> 00:26:50,250 所以你知道的 718 00:26:50,250 --> 00:26:52,529 尽管这可能是一场政治 stunt 719 00:26:52,529 --> 00:26:54,888 或者他们在政治立场上坚持己见 720 00:26:54,888 --> 00:26:55,328 是的 721 00:26:55,328 --> 00:26:56,669 这简直太 722 00:26:56,669 --> 00:26:57,209 肯定如此 723 00:26:57,209 --> 00:26:57,449 没错 724 00:26:57,449 --> 00:27:01,589 短期内确实帮助了他们，历史会证明 725 00:27:01,589 --> 00:27:03,250 作为面向消费者的产品 726 00:27:03,250 --> 00:27:05,990 绝不能显示任何政治倾向 727 00:27:05,990 --> 00:27:09,429 因为政府每四年更换一次 728 00:27:09,429 --> 00:27:12,909 你不想与某一届政府政治站队 729 00:27:12,909 --> 00:27:13,509 与另一届对立 730 00:27:13,509 --> 00:27:14,929 从消费者角度 731 00:27:14,929 --> 00:27:18,410 长期来看这行不通 732 00:27:18,410 --> 00:27:19,049 短期内 733 00:27:19,049 --> 00:27:19,529 你可以有 734 00:27:19,529 --> 00:27:19,890 你知道的 735 00:27:19,890 --> 00:27:20,410 波动 736 00:27:20,410 --> 00:27:20,990 嗯 737 00:27:20,990 --> 00:27:22,470 但那 738 00:27:22,470 --> 00:27:22,890 你知道的 739 00:27:22,890 --> 00:27:24,049 情况不明 740 00:27:24,049 --> 00:27:24,730 浑水摸鱼 741 00:27:24,730 --> 00:27:25,130 所以我觉得 742 00:27:25,130 --> 00:27:26,679 我不确定 743 00:27:26,919 --> 00:27:27,398 是的 744 00:27:27,398 --> 00:27:27,798 难办 745 00:27:27,798 --> 00:27:28,318 好吧 746 00:27:28,318 --> 00:27:28,598 嗯 747 00:27:28,598 --> 00:27:30,419 能当面交流真好 748 00:27:30,419 --> 00:27:31,940 下周我们再见大家 749 00:27:31,940 --> 00:27:33,160 Arc投资管理公司 750 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:34,500 有限责任公司是美国证券交易委员会 751 00:27:34,500 --> 00:27:36,359 注册投资顾问 752 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,359 财务部与公共部为独立无关联实体 753 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,000 与任何公司无关联关系 754 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,890 不会营销或销售其他公司的产品或服务 755 00:27:45,890 --> 00:27:49,930 Arc财务与公共部不对以下内容作出任何声明或保证 756 00:27:49,930 --> 00:27:54,089 并明确免除对其他实体或其关联方的任何行为 757 00:27:54,089 --> 00:27:54,710 遗漏 758 00:27:54,710 --> 00:27:58,099 损失或损害的责任 759 00:27:58,099 --> 00:27:58,779 高级管理人员 760 00:27:58,779 --> 00:28:00,190 员工或代理人 761 00:28:00,190 --> 00:28:02,690 任何公司不对间接 762 00:28:02,690 --> 00:28:03,150 附带 763 00:28:03,150 --> 00:28:03,869 后果性 764 00:28:03,869 --> 00:28:09,150 或特殊损害承担责任 765 00:28:09,150 --> 00:28:12,910 本节目提供的信息仅作参考用途 766 00:28:12,910 --> 00:28:16,390 不应作为投资决策的依据 767 00:28:16,390 --> 00:28:18,609 且可能随时变更 768 00:28:18,609 --> 00:28:22,230 不构成任何明示或暗示 769 00:28:22,230 --> 00:28:24,289 服务或产品的提供 770 00:28:24,289 --> 00:28:31,960 投资者应自行判断特定投资管理服务是否符合自身需求 771 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:36,660 关于公司的陈述仅为Arc及嘉宾的个人观点 772 00:28:36,660 --> 00:28:38,720 仅代表Arc及其嘉宾的立场 773 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:44,369 不构成Arc对任何公司或证券的认可或推荐 774 00:28:44,369 --> 00:28:46,710 不建议买入 775 00:28:46,710 --> 00:28:50,138 历史业绩不代表未来表现 776 00:28:50,138 --> 00:28:54,499 本节目部分内容可能为未来展望 777 00:28:54,499 --> 00:28:57,398 及其他前瞻性声明 778 00:28:57,398 --> 00:29:03,690 基于Arc当前观点与假设 779 00:29:03,690 --> 00:29:09,059 实际结果可能与声明存在重大差异 780 00:29:09,059 --> 00:29:13,500 Arc不承担更新前瞻性信息的义务 781 00:29:13,500 --> 00:29:17,349 Arc及其客户及相关人员可能 782 00:29:17,349 --> 00:29:23,210 但未必持有讨论中的证券或发行人股份 783 00:29:23,210 --> 00:29:27,119 部分信息来源于可信第三方 784 00:29:27,119 --> 00:29:33,140 但Arc不对第三方信息的准确性完整性作担保
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