【NaNa说美股】20260618变脸比翻书还快！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是6月18号

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做周四美股交易员们一觉醒来

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昨天美联储开会带来的那一点焦虑

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基本已经消化的差不多了

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另外川普和伊朗总统在巴黎凡尔赛宫

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签署了结束中东战争的谅解备忘录

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霍尔木兹海峡重新开放

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伊朗也恢复了石油出口

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油价与美债收益率应声下跌

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协议缓解了通胀担忧

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同时呢

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也降低了市场对于美联储继续加息的担忧

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美股借着这个利好开启了反弹模式

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今天纳指收涨1.91%

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标普收涨1.08%

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道指受周期股和工业股拖累

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微幅收涨0.14%

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VX呢回落

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以及美伊和平协议等多重考验

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但是不确定性仍然存在

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这次FOMC之后呢

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很多人最关心的就是美联储到底还降不降息

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美股还能不能继续冲AI股

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科技股会不会又被利率预期带着走

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其实美股很多时候不是只看一句话

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而是要看接下来的数据怎么走

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比如通胀有没有继续降

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就业有没有变弱

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Gdp

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PCCPI非农这些数据会不会改变市场对降息预期

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今天有整整8.3万亿美元的美国期权敞口

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集中到期

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刷新了历史最高纪录

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比去年12月的记录高出10%

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八

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大资本机构全在忙着调整仓位

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空投呢技术性补仓

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多头获利了结

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今天标普500指数最后说了一根十字星

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反映了市场在短期宏观压力与长期结构性支撑

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之间的拉扯状态

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最近两周

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指数连续出现了

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上影线和下影线都很长的十字星

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这在技术上呢

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意味着单边上涨的狂热期已经暂时告一段落

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市场在高位产生了分歧

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机构在频繁高位换手和系统信息盘嗯

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本周指数成功收在五周均线上方

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这说明市场虽然在震荡调整

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但它是一个非常健康的

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以恒待跌的强震荡

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并没有出现破位暴跌的迹象

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C大调的策略主管scott top呢表示

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美股市场正迎来年内最为关键的技术性仓位

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调整窗口之一

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未来两周

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美股市场将会被这些技术性的机械抛售和资金

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洗盘给推着走

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基本面呢要先靠边站

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再加上马上到季度末了

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由于美股前期涨幅巨大

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美国那些养老基金赚得盆满钵满的

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目前美国前100大养老基金的资金充足率呢

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高达1%

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百十

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为2001年以来的最高水平

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为了锁住这些利润

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这个月底部分基金可能选择降低风险敞口

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预计从目前到这个月末

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市场呢将会面临数百亿美元资产的机械性卖股

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买债嗯

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斯科特M的强调哈

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如果过几天大盘跌了

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大家千万别慌

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这只是技术性调整

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不要过度解读这些波动

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而应将其视为买入机会

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等7月1号新一轮资金进场市场

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大概率呢又是一条好汉

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每年7月1号左右

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退休账户缴款目标日期

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基金被动投资产品

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共同基金以及量化策略资金都会陆续投入市场

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因为新的这个季度开始

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形成新一轮增量资金来源

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根据其他调的统计

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过去11年中

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标普500指数在每一个7月份都实现了上涨

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纳斯达克100指数呢则在过去18个7月份中

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有17个月份录得升幅

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与此同时

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散户投资者仍然是推动市场的重要力量

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今年散户交易活跃度已经达到了历史最高水平

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而7月份历乃是散户参与度第二高的月份哈

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就仅次于1月

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个股方面

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英特尔股价呢今年跳涨了10.6%

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四川普发帖说

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美国政府之前帮助英特呃

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换取了10%的股份

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现在赚翻了

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还顺便爆料说

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苹果已经同意把芯片订单交给英特尔

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要在美国本土设计和制造芯片

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虽然苹果和白宫还没有出来正式盖章

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那市场已经先嗨了

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过去英特尔晶圆代工

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因为缺乏外部顶级客户呢持续巨亏

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如果苹果

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英伟达以及马斯克的ta发的项目陆续入驻的话

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那这个英特尔可就真的成了美版台积电了

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这基本面算是彻底逆袭

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连带着整个费城半导体指数

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今天也飙了6.4%

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再创历史新高

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板块呢持续获得资金的追捧

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这背后是三重利好

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中东和平了

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不打仗了

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大家敢买高风险资产

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亚太半导体今年跟着大涨

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再加上AI算力需求还在疯狂喷发

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杠杆ETF的反弹效应呢

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又进一步放大了涨幅

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今年以来费半的累计涨幅已经接近90%

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远远跑赢标普500指数

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存储芯片也全线上涨

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投资机构发布行业深度报告

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大幅上调了drum和HBM的价格预期

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并且指出

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内存正在超越传统逻辑算力

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成为AI硬件里最关键的瓶颈和协同部件

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就是比英伟达那些呃显卡更重要

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到2027年嗯

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存储在整个硬件系统里的价值占比

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会从现在的40%飙升到70%以上

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难怪这个资金疯狂涌入

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以麦威尔科技和存储大厂为首的那些硬件基建

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有人欢喜有人愁

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软件板块今天就很惨

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巨头艾森泽这个发布Q3财报额

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营收187亿美元

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只稍微比预期的差了那么一点点哈

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就不被待见了

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虽然他们宣布掏41亿美元

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去收购三家网络安全公司

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想搞逆周期布局呃

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旨在通过AI和安全

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来打造这个数字化转型的新护城河

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可是呢市场并不买账

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八

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年初至今累跌51.6%

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这些这个在过去十几20年中发展起来的

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明星软件巨头

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属于他们的辉煌时代已经彻底终结了

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另一家软件大牛ServiceNow更惨

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好不容易之前反弹了65%

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结果呢赚3年限这个技术阻力位后

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就遭遇沉重的获利盘抛压

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回吐了绝大部分涨幅

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进入6月哈

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随着资金向硬件以及大型IPO吸血

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整个软件板块再度陷入了

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软件末日式的资金撤离

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软件高估值溢价

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在利率维持高位期间

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对于资金的吸引力呢要远弱于那些具有干性

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资本支出支撑的那些半导体硬件

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SPACEX股价今天继续回落

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公司跟IPO呢就计划要发展至少200亿美元

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筹集资金

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将会用于一位

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一笔将在2027年9月到期的200亿美元

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过桥贷款进行再融资

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哎呀主要原因还是前几天股价涨太多了呀

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市值都快顶到3万亿美元了

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把全美股的存量资金都给抽干了

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你看今天它一回调

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获利资金吐出来

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其他的股票才能喘口气哈

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英特尔半导体今天才有前涨

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电力股呢集体走高

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今天美国能源审批部门承诺

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会加速全美数据中心接电的审批流程

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为数据中心行业的布局和落地

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提供更有力的公共服务支撑

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本来是基本面大利好

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但是VST这些电力股近期已经连续反弹了

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今天呢同样这个碰到年线阻力嗯

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短线多头资金借利好获利了结哈

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股价日内冲高回落

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就每次都是这样子

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等消息出来的时候

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散户看到已经太晚了

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行情早就走完了

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这美联储今年降息渺茫嗯

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利率呢高企

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这些公用电力股哈

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咱们就只能做波段呃

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涨多了卖

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然后跌多了卖

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不要期望这个一路涨上去

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通过了一个非常狠的条款

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这些军工承包商不准自己回购股票

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也不准发股息

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这等于断了华尔街炒作军工股的财路哈

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因为军工股的核心牛市逻辑之一

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就是稳定的现金流

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回购和高股息率

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所以这条款一出

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那些华尔街红利榨取资金就加速流出

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估计not al woman啊

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mt他们的股价还得继续往下探呃

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那时候顾问这边下个支撑

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00:09:15,730 --> 00:09:18,289
可能在490~500美元左右

218
00:09:18,289 --> 00:09:19,909
而且还不一定是底部

219
00:09:19,909 --> 00:09:21,149
可能还要更低

220
00:09:21,149 --> 00:09:25,149
所以咱们暂时规避这些政策利空的军工股哈

221
00:09:25,149 --> 00:09:27,009
等他们跌透了再说

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00:09:27,009 --> 00:09:27,929
总结一下

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00:09:27,929 --> 00:09:28,990
现在美股市场

224
00:09:28,990 --> 00:09:32,029
地缘政治这个最大的炸弹已经拆掉了

225
00:09:32,029 --> 00:09:33,529
企业盈利强劲

226
00:09:33,529 --> 00:09:35,789
大方向肯定还是向好的

227
00:09:35,789 --> 00:09:40,330
但是由于商务日后释放了全市场极度密集的

228
00:09:40,330 --> 00:09:42,029
名义干骂敞口

229
00:09:42,029 --> 00:09:45,179
就后面这个波动就会放开来了哈

230
00:09:45,179 --> 00:09:47,820
这个月底还有养老金调仓再平衡

231
00:09:47,820 --> 00:09:48,179
指数

232
00:09:48,179 --> 00:09:50,149
短线呢可能会出现颠簸

233
00:09:50,149 --> 00:09:53,370
就很难形成单边逼空暴涨

234
00:09:53,370 --> 00:09:57,480
更多表现为板块间剧烈的跷跷板效应

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00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,419
比如SPACEX的资金突出

236
00:09:59,419 --> 00:10:01,820
今天就恰好滋养了英特尔与存储

237
00:10:03,279 --> 00:10:04,639
呃但是问题不大哈

238
00:10:04,639 --> 00:10:06,500
反正可以逢低布局

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00:10:06,500 --> 00:10:09,350
有这个强资本支出的那些

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00:10:09,350 --> 00:10:10,730
可以逢低布局

241
00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:15,230
有强资本支出支撑的那些有业绩的AI硬件等

242
00:10:15,230 --> 00:10:17,149
7月份行情就会抓好

243
00:10:17,149 --> 00:10:20,789
那个时候又要呃开始新一轮财报季了哈

244
00:10:20,789 --> 00:10:23,470
行那我们今天就说到这里

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00:10:23,470 --> 00:10:26,110
那祝大家这个常周末愉快

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00:10:26,110 --> 00:10:28,029
明天周五美股休市哈

247
00:10:28,029 --> 00:10:29,360
我们下次见拜拜

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