SaaS复活赛全面打响！千亿巨头Adobe vs 独立新贵Figma ,谁才是数字创意 SaaS股的未来？ADBE,FIG#trading #投資 #美股

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很多人以为SARS板块在这个AI时代已死

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可当真实的业务数据摆在眼前时

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我们才会发现市场的割裂

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恐惧与贪婪远比公司的内在逻辑还要疯狂

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今天我们要聊的就是

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这场发生在设计软件领域

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最核心位置的正面对决

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在这场对决中

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一方是千亿级别的绝对霸主adobe

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他一年疯狂捞金近240亿美元

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却因为前不久功勋CEEO宣布卸任

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加上隔壁OpenAI的冲击

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过去一年的股价被活生生砸掉37%

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而另一方则是从他手里抢到10亿美元彩礼

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强行出逃

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在2025年轰动上市的独立新贵菲格玛

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他交出了第一季的营收

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同比暴增46%的成绩单

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结果还没有来得及庆祝

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就被激进的对冲基金不断施压

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甚至还惊现了自家董事会成员在离职前夜

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反手用无间道

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把核心技术搬到隔壁

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AI巨头那里的硅谷谍战大戏

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这就是2026年SARS复活赛最真实的写照

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那么问题来了

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当这两家垄断设计软件赛道的死敌

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同时陷入困境

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股价回调时

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这背后到底是致命的陷阱

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还是真正的翻倍机会呢

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hi朋友们

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欢迎来到ruby投资笔记

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我是你们的老朋友

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Ruby

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在视频开始之前呢

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我要和大家强调一下

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我们本期的视频是非常深度的

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基本面拆解

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又介于SARS股的波动行情

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所以有关估值方面的分析

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我全部都放在了频道主页的链接里

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有需要的朋友们可以自取

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好话不多说

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我们先来看第一部分

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这两家公司是做什么的

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那说到菲格玛的话

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他更像是数字创业行业里的天才

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初创者和传统专业设计工具

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动辄需要本地安装几十个G

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对于电脑配置要求极高的繁重规模

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相比

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菲格玛做的是纯网页端轻量化高

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并且做的是一个实时协同画布

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这个定位意味着什么呢

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他直接打破了设计师

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产品经理与研发人员之间的沟通高效

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让一整个跨国团队能同时在一个网页里面画图

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改方案

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甚至直接交接代码

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换句话说

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他从一开始就没有想去走单机专业制图的老路

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而是想做一个

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随时随地去中心化的数字创意枢纽

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它的卖点主要有两个

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极致的协同效率体验

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以及极具统治力的用户心智趋势

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在实际应用中

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它几乎成了全球互联网和科技公司

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UI和UX设计的行业标准

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而在AI叙事上

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他推出了figa make等工具

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主打的就是用自然语言

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直接生成可运行的代码与UI界面

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在资本市场上极具想象力

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那总体来说就是菲格玛的路线是轻资产快迭代

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用底层协同逻辑牢牢黏住用户

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再通过AI快速放大估值

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再看adobe

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他完全是另一种打法

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adobe是创意软件界的绝对霸主

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也是全球第一家把工具软件做成百亿美金

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订阅帝国的正规军

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它产品的定位是全能且专业的生产力长城

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Photoshop is strator premier

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每一个都是行业绝对的黄金标准

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他们堆叠起来

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形成了一个继承全球几10万家头部企业

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数千万高端专业创作者的庞大生态

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adobe的卖点在于全能化

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商业合规化生态链闭环

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他走的是正规军的路线

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通过大规模研发推出firefly生成式AI安全模型

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把AI能力无缝衔接到现有的成熟工作流里

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它的应用场景非常庞大

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从影视后期商业摄影

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到企业级数字营销和PDF办公

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那缺点就是体系过于庞大

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历史包袱重

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面对新型的AI工具的冲击时

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需要用极大的体量和转型成本去硬碰硬

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所以对比下来

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我们就会发现两家公司的路径完全不一样

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菲格玛靠极致协同介入

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敏捷开发轻快灵活

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adobe靠着深耕生态

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稳固专业底盘

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扎实稳重

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同样是数字创意赛道

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一个选择当协同型的创新先锋

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一个选择做全能型行业的正规军

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这也为他们在资本市场上埋下了待遇

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不同的伏笔

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背景看完两家公司的画像已经很清楚了

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接下来我们从定位商业路径

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营收增速

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资本市场表现到风险机会逐条来看

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首先是定位和市场愿景

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把菲格玛和adobe放在一起看

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会发现他们虽然都在做设计软件

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但卖的不是同一种东西

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菲格玛从一开始就没有想成为第二个adobe

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adobe服务于专业的设计师

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而菲格玛服务整个团队

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产品经理

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工程师运营

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甚至老板都能参与设计流程

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所以菲格玛卖的不只是设计工具

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更是协作和效率

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很多人第一次用菲格玛的时候

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都会觉得它不像传统的设计软件

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反而像是设计界的谷歌DUX

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所有人都能同时在线

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实时修改

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在同一个画布上工作

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这种模式正好踩中了企业数字化转型

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最重要的趋势协同

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也因此资本市场特别喜欢菲格玛

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因为它代表的不只是一个产品

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而是一种新的工作方式

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这是当年adobe愿意花200亿美元

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收购他的重要原因

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但adobe走的是另一条不一样的路

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如果说FIGMA卖的是一张画布

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那adobe卖的就是一整座工厂

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PHOTOSHOP处理图片

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in strator做矢量设计

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本来MII剪视频

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after the facts做动效

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再加上营销

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数字资产管理等工具

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几乎覆盖了整个内容生产链条

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因此adobe的目的从来不是单一工具

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而是成为创意行业的基础设施

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它最大的护城河不只是单个软件

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而是深度嵌入了企业的内容生产流程

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从创意生成到内容制作再到营销分发环环相扣

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换句话说

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菲格玛解决的是团队协同的问题

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adobe解决的是企业内容生产的问题

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那过去10年

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华尔街更偏爱adobe

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因为它的规模更大

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利润更高

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护城河更深

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但是进入AI时代后

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市场开始偏爱轻资产

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高增长的平台性故事

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而菲格玛恰好站在这个风口

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他看起来更灵活

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也更符合未来工作的想象

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与此同时呢

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adobe虽然现金流依然强劲

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却不断面临着AI创业公司的挑战

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每出现一个新产品

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市场都会担心他是否会抢走adobe的客户

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那不过真正的问题是

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掌握行业标准

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客户资源和生态体系的公司

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真的会这么容易被颠覆吗

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这或许才是adobe和菲格玛的这场较量中

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最值得关注的地方

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如果说定位决定了一家公司想去哪里

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那么商业模式决定了它能不能走到终点

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菲格玛特别像一家典型的硅谷互联网公司

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轻快先抢用户

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他从第一天就生产在浏览器里

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不用下载安装

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也不用升级版本

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团队成员发一个链接

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所有人就能在线协作

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今天看似普通

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但是10年前就非常颠覆

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因为当时大多数的设计软件都依赖

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本地安装文件来回传递

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协作效率很低

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而菲格玛是直接把设计流程搬到了云端

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大幅降低了写作和部署成本

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很多企业它并不是老板决定采用FA格玛

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而是设计师先用工程师跟着用

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产品经理也加入进来

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最后整个团队都离不开他

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这就是典型的产品驱动增长

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PL7产品吸引用户

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用户再把产品带进公司

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那进入AI时代后

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菲格玛依然延续这种打法协议功能

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快速上线

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快速迭代

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目的就是为了让用户在菲格玛里

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完成越来越多的工作

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协展入口

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再扩生态

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adobe则完全不同

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如果说菲格玛像是互联网公司

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那么adobe更像是一家工业企业

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它不一定最快

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但一定最稳

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因为他服务的客户大多是依赖内容生产赚钱

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比如广告公司

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影视制作公司和大型的企业市场部门

222
00:07:21,149 --> 00:07:23,389
这些客户最担心的不是功能少

223
00:07:23,389 --> 00:07:24,560
而是风险高

224
00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,420
因此呢adobe在AI时代最先考虑的问题不是效果

225
00:07:28,420 --> 00:07:30,819
而是版权合规与商业安全

226
00:07:30,819 --> 00:07:33,939
firefly的核心优势也不只是生成能力

227
00:07:33,939 --> 00:07:36,408
而是让企业客户能够放心使用

228
00:07:36,408 --> 00:07:38,028
从商业模式上来看

229
00:07:38,028 --> 00:07:40,889
菲格玛在用互联网的思维做设计软件

230
00:07:40,889 --> 00:07:42,009
先获得用户

231
00:07:42,009 --> 00:07:42,949
在扩展生态

232
00:07:42,949 --> 00:07:45,709
adobe则是在用工业化的思维做AI

233
00:07:45,709 --> 00:07:46,769
先解决可靠性

234
00:07:46,769 --> 00:07:48,029
再大规模推广

235
00:07:48,029 --> 00:07:50,069
这两家公司没有谁对谁错

236
00:07:50,069 --> 00:07:52,230
只能说是选择了不同的道路

237
00:07:52,230 --> 00:07:53,970
菲格玛更像是一艘快艇

238
00:07:53,970 --> 00:07:55,029
灵活便捷

239
00:07:55,029 --> 00:07:57,189
adobe则像是一艘航空母舰

240
00:07:57,189 --> 00:07:57,910
转身较慢

241
00:07:57,910 --> 00:07:59,240
但是力量更强

242
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,500
而AI时代最大的悬念就在于

243
00:08:01,500 --> 00:08:04,519
未来创造最大价值的究竟是跑得最快的人

244
00:08:04,519 --> 00:08:06,660
还是拥有最深护城河的人呢

245
00:08:06,660 --> 00:08:08,908
我们来看一下营收对比

246
00:08:09,769 --> 00:08:11,848
这是一组非常直观的数据

247
00:08:11,848 --> 00:08:13,369
截至2026年6月

248
00:08:13,369 --> 00:08:16,240
adobe的市值大约是1035亿美元

249
00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,839
依然是一个千亿级别的庞然大物

250
00:08:18,839 --> 00:08:22,350
而菲格玛的市值在经历上市初期的狂热回调后

251
00:08:22,350 --> 00:08:24,790
目前是稳定在120亿美元左右

252
00:08:24,790 --> 00:08:26,029
从体量上来看

253
00:08:26,029 --> 00:08:28,209
adobe是菲格玛的将近九倍

254
00:08:28,209 --> 00:08:30,930
但是如果我们看两者的营收和指引

255
00:08:30,930 --> 00:08:33,960
就会发现他们的风格完全是两个极端

256
00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:35,019
先看adobe

257
00:08:35,019 --> 00:08:35,600
Adobe

258
00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,399
2025财年的营收是达到了

259
00:08:37,399 --> 00:08:39,139
237.7亿美元

260
00:08:39,139 --> 00:08:42,139
那二六财年第一季度的营收是64亿美元

261
00:08:42,139 --> 00:08:44,038
同比增长大约12%

262
00:08:44,038 --> 00:08:45,879
对于这样体量的公司来说

263
00:08:45,879 --> 00:08:47,599
还能保持两位数的增长

264
00:08:47,599 --> 00:08:48,759
已是相当不易

265
00:08:48,759 --> 00:08:51,120
adobe更像是一台成熟的印钞机

266
00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:52,200
稳定高利润

267
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:53,100
高现金流

268
00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:55,970
投资人基本能够判断他未来几年的表现

269
00:08:55,970 --> 00:08:58,649
这就是adobe最大的价值确定性

270
00:08:58,649 --> 00:09:01,970
再看菲格玛25年的营收突破10亿美元

271
00:09:01,970 --> 00:09:03,409
同比增长超过4%

272
00:09:03,409 --> 00:09:03,769
十

273
00:09:03,769 --> 00:09:06,850
26年第一季度营收达到3.33亿美元

274
00:09:06,850 --> 00:09:08,720
同比增长46%

275
00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,519
虽然规模远小于adobe

276
00:09:10,519 --> 00:09:12,649
但是它的增长速度明显更快

277
00:09:12,649 --> 00:09:15,669
这也是华尔街对于菲格玛如此兴奋的原因

278
00:09:15,669 --> 00:09:18,230
市场最喜欢的往往不是最大的公司

279
00:09:18,230 --> 00:09:20,059
而是增长最快的公司

280
00:09:20,059 --> 00:09:22,539
adobe就像是一棵已经长成了大树

281
00:09:22,539 --> 00:09:24,109
它每年稳定结果

282
00:09:24,109 --> 00:09:27,568
菲格玛呢就算是一棵刚进入高速生长期的小树

283
00:09:27,568 --> 00:09:29,679
未来还有很大的想象空间

284
00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,860
所以两家公司虽然都在赚钱

285
00:09:31,860 --> 00:09:34,599
但是投资人买的其实不是同一种东西

286
00:09:34,599 --> 00:09:35,678
投资adobe

287
00:09:35,678 --> 00:09:37,399
看中的是他稳定的现金流

288
00:09:37,399 --> 00:09:39,450
和行业龙头的护城河地位

289
00:09:39,450 --> 00:09:40,909
买的是一个确定性

290
00:09:40,909 --> 00:09:42,370
那投资菲格玛的话

291
00:09:42,370 --> 00:09:45,210
看重的是高速增长和未来扩张的可能性

292
00:09:45,210 --> 00:09:46,480
买的是想象力

293
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:47,639
说的更直白一点

294
00:09:47,639 --> 00:09:48,620
adobe像债券

295
00:09:48,620 --> 00:09:49,700
费格麻性期权

296
00:09:49,700 --> 00:09:50,679
一个让人安心

297
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:51,870
一个让人兴奋

298
00:09:51,870 --> 00:09:54,669
而资本市场最纠结的问题也正在这里

299
00:09:54,669 --> 00:09:56,870
当确定性和增长摆在面前时

300
00:09:56,870 --> 00:09:58,419
到底哪个更值钱呢

301
00:09:58,419 --> 00:10:00,740
这不仅是adobe和菲格玛之间的较量

302
00:10:00,740 --> 00:10:03,899
也是华尔街永远在讨论的话题

303
00:10:04,429 --> 00:10:05,990
那如果只看业务表现

304
00:10:05,990 --> 00:10:07,730
adobe其实没有什么问题

305
00:10:07,730 --> 00:10:08,509
收入增长

306
00:10:08,509 --> 00:10:09,190
利润增长

307
00:10:09,190 --> 00:10:10,029
现金流充裕

308
00:10:10,029 --> 00:10:12,580
依然是软件行业最优质的公司之一

309
00:10:12,580 --> 00:10:14,919
但是资本市场看重的不只是业绩

310
00:10:14,919 --> 00:10:16,519
更看重未来的故事

311
00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:19,299
这正是adobe和FIGMA最大的区别

312
00:10:19,299 --> 00:10:20,539
2023年底

313
00:10:20,539 --> 00:10:22,960
adobe收购菲格玛的200亿美元交易

314
00:10:24,470 --> 00:10:27,269
原本很多人认为失去了adobe这个买家后

315
00:10:27,269 --> 00:10:29,070
菲格玛的估值会受到冲击

316
00:10:29,070 --> 00:10:30,460
结果恰恰相反

317
00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:31,659
随着菲格玛AI

318
00:10:31,659 --> 00:10:33,320
菲格玛make克等功能的推出

319
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,659
市场对于他的期待反而越来越高

320
00:10:35,659 --> 00:10:37,580
因为在很多投资人的眼中

321
00:10:37,580 --> 00:10:39,720
菲格玛他已经不是一个设计工具

322
00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,659
而是下一代协同工作平台

323
00:10:41,659 --> 00:10:44,700
甚至可能成为AI时代新的产品开发入口

324
00:10:44,700 --> 00:10:47,779
就像是微软和WPS在中国的竞争一样

325
00:10:47,779 --> 00:10:49,259
投资人看中菲格玛

326
00:10:49,259 --> 00:10:52,100
更多的是未来五到10年的想象空间

327
00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:54,080
但是adobe的发展情况不一样

328
00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,460
他的财报依然稳健

329
00:10:55,460 --> 00:10:57,120
收入和利润持续增长

330
00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,929
但是市场关注的已经不是今天赚多少钱

331
00:10:59,929 --> 00:11:02,759
而是未来还能否保持行业的统治力

332
00:11:02,759 --> 00:11:05,899
过去几年升职是AI不断改变行业的预期

333
00:11:05,899 --> 00:11:07,840
ma ji的出现让人担心

334
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,440
PHOTOSHOP可画的出现

335
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,250
让人担心设计门槛下降

336
00:11:11,250 --> 00:11:13,350
视频生成模型又让人质疑

337
00:11:13,350 --> 00:11:15,929
premiere和afford fans的长期价值

338
00:11:15,929 --> 00:11:20,129
于是adobe几乎每隔一段时间都会被重新审视一次

339
00:11:20,129 --> 00:11:22,090
这也导致了一个有趣的现象

340
00:11:22,090 --> 00:11:23,389
菲格玛的规模更小

341
00:11:23,389 --> 00:11:24,129
利润更少

342
00:11:24,129 --> 00:11:25,070
风险更高

343
00:11:25,070 --> 00:11:26,839
却获得了更高的期待

344
00:11:26,839 --> 00:11:28,219
adobe赚钱更多

345
00:11:28,219 --> 00:11:29,119
护城河更深

346
00:11:29,119 --> 00:11:32,039
却始终面临会不会被AI颠覆的质疑

347
00:11:32,039 --> 00:11:33,299
那原因很简单

348
00:11:33,299 --> 00:11:34,480
菲格玛是挑战者

349
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,679
市场愿意为挑战者的未来买单

350
00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,000
adobe是守擂者

351
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,149
而狩猎者最大的压力就是必须不断证明自己

352
00:11:41,149 --> 00:11:43,070
所以同样身处AI浪潮之中

353
00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:44,570
菲格玛得到的是掌声

354
00:11:44,570 --> 00:11:47,789
而adobe得到的更多是审视

355
00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:49,370
聊到这里

356
00:11:49,370 --> 00:11:52,669
真正的问题已经不再是adobe和菲格玛谁更好

357
00:11:52,669 --> 00:11:54,370
而是如果投资其中一家

358
00:11:54,370 --> 00:11:55,828
你到底在赌什么

359
00:11:55,828 --> 00:11:58,469
先看菲格玛市场愿意给他高期待

360
00:11:58,469 --> 00:12:00,009
就是在压住它的增长

361
00:12:00,009 --> 00:12:01,509
协同设计团队协作

362
00:12:01,509 --> 00:12:04,970
AI辅助开发都是当下软件行业最热门的方向

363
00:12:04,970 --> 00:12:06,309
它产品的门槛低

364
00:12:06,309 --> 00:12:06,830
传播快

365
00:12:06,830 --> 00:12:09,309
天然适合年轻团队和新创作者

366
00:12:09,309 --> 00:12:12,110
一旦AI进一步降低设计和开发门槛

367
00:12:12,110 --> 00:12:15,549
菲格玛有机会吸引更多的用户进入自己的生态

368
00:12:15,549 --> 00:12:17,169
但是风险也很明显

369
00:12:17,169 --> 00:12:20,500
FAKA目前最强的领域仍然是UI设计和写作

370
00:12:20,500 --> 00:12:21,840
当他进入到视频

371
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,720
音频特效3D等专业内容生产领域

372
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,759
就必须面对俄罗比几十年积累下来的工作流

373
00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:29,450
行业标准和客户习惯

374
00:12:29,450 --> 00:12:31,529
未来最大的挑战不是增长

375
00:12:31,529 --> 00:12:35,139
而是能否从优秀工具成长为真正的平台机生态

376
00:12:35,139 --> 00:12:38,620
加个adobe AI确实在改变内容创作的方式

377
00:12:38,620 --> 00:12:41,389
也让市场担心它的电源模式受到冲击

378
00:12:41,389 --> 00:12:43,450
如果未来创作效率大幅提升

379
00:12:43,450 --> 00:12:45,789
企业是否还需要这么多的软件席位

380
00:12:45,789 --> 00:12:47,700
是一个非常现实的问题

381
00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:50,460
但adobe最大的优势同样难以复制

382
00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:52,820
它拥有成熟的企业级内容工作流

383
00:12:52,820 --> 00:12:54,299
深度保定的客户关系

384
00:12:54,299 --> 00:12:57,589
行业标准级的生态以及版权和合规体系

385
00:12:57,589 --> 00:12:59,048
对于企业客户来说

386
00:12:59,048 --> 00:13:00,349
功能强大固然重要

387
00:13:00,349 --> 00:13:02,559
但是风险可控往往更重要

388
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,100
所以菲格玛和adobe代表着两种不同的投资逻辑

389
00:13:06,100 --> 00:13:07,820
投资菲格玛是在赌未来

390
00:13:07,820 --> 00:13:09,259
赌他不断扩张边界

391
00:13:09,259 --> 00:13:11,190
成长为下一代软件平台

392
00:13:11,190 --> 00:13:13,210
投资adobe是在赌护城河

393
00:13:13,210 --> 00:13:15,370
赌企业生态不会轻易被颠覆

394
00:13:15,370 --> 00:13:17,549
赌AI最终会成为它的增强器

395
00:13:17,549 --> 00:13:18,589
而非危险

396
00:13:18,589 --> 00:13:20,389
一个代表增长与想象力

397
00:13:20,389 --> 00:13:22,169
一个代表成熟与确定性

398
00:13:22,169 --> 00:13:22,929
聊到这里

399
00:13:22,929 --> 00:13:25,289
这场竞争的本质已经很清楚了

400
00:13:25,289 --> 00:13:26,450
菲格玛代表未来

401
00:13:26,450 --> 00:13:28,190
adobe代表现在的壁垒

402
00:13:28,190 --> 00:13:29,769
没有绝对正确的答案

403
00:13:29,769 --> 00:13:32,049
关键在于你自己的投资风格

404
00:13:32,049 --> 00:13:35,250
如果对这两家公司的估值分析感兴趣的朋友们

405
00:13:35,250 --> 00:13:37,950
可以点击我频道主页的链接进行领取

406
00:13:37,950 --> 00:13:40,629
那这份估值分析也是我查阅了很多数据

407
00:13:40,629 --> 00:13:41,509
整理出来的

408
00:13:41,509 --> 00:13:43,580
你如果错过的话就太可惜了

409
00:13:43,580 --> 00:13:46,659
如果是你面对AI时代这场设计软件大战

410
00:13:46,659 --> 00:13:48,840
你会选择菲格玛还是adobe呢

411
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,679
欢迎把你的答案留在评论区

412
00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,120
同时也欢迎您点赞订阅ruby投资笔记

413
00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:54,759
不错过下一期精彩视频

414
00:13:54,759 --> 00:13:55,559
我是ruby

415
00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:57,639
咱们一起也会下期再见拜

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