【NaNa说美股】20260501顶级大佬也死于FOMO！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是5月1号周55月份的开局呢

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整体比较复杂

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美股三大股指今天表现分化

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标普与纳值延续强势

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持续创新高

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稻子昨天刚硬了一把

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今天依旧又脚软了

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没有办法

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老登骨就是这样啊

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体力不能够和娜子这种年轻人比

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消息面上的市场受到多重地缘政治信息干扰

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呈现出较强的不确定性

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各种烟雾弹把散户都给搞晕了

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盘前有媒体报道称

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伊朗周四已经通过巴基斯坦

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给美国递了份新的谈判方案

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中间方巴基斯坦还大嘴巴称

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随着伊朗提出新的提议

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达成协议的可能性比之前更大了

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所以市场对和平前景的预期升温

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油价呢在盘中出现了回落

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但是午盘时间传来新的消息

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川普称对伊朗的最新提议并不满意

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有价有反弹

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可是没过几分钟

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川普又改口说

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与伊朗通了电话

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双方沟通存在进展

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他个人倾向于避免进一步军事行动

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于是股价呢再度出现了波动

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油价如今就是一直被短期消所牵引

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这些消息里呢又没几句实话

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全是为给高频量化的电子大便

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目的就是诱导波动

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从现在的情况来看

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伊朗只要没有被彻底打趴下哈

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唐尼着霍尔木兹海峡这张王牌

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就不可能乖乖交出浓缩铀

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更不可能放弃海峡控制权

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不过市场现在共识就是谈不谈得成并不重要

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只要不答就行

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那现在双方的重点呢是

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如何体面地结束这场战争

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让各自都能够对自己的基本盘宣布赢麻了

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最大的变量是那个不听劝的以色列哈

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据以色列第12频道报道

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以色列官方认为

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美伊谈判最早可能下周出破裂

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敌军已经在加急准备应对再次开战了

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以色列国防军称

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如果美伊双方的谈判协议没能达成一

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除伊朗的浓缩铀材料

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并且停止宜朗浓缩有活动的目的

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那么伊朗战事将被视为一场巨大的失败

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乙方在军事行动期间所取得的成效将毫无意义

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这完全是打破了这个川普的赢麻了的说法

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目前呢伊朗拥有的400kg

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分度为60%的浓缩铀材料

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足以制造11枚核弹

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可以毁灭N个以色列了哈

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如果美伊谈判协议不能达成这个目的

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那么乙方就需要对伊朗发动另一次军事行动

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以实现该目标

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这个话的意思很明确

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美国要是搞不定伊朗

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以色列就帮他搞定

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无论美国是否愿意

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就你不体面

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帮你体面哈

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毕竟这个事情对于川普而言

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就是中期选举好不好看

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但是对以色列而言

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这个是亡国灭种的生存危机哈

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所以他必须是要干到底的

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摩根大通最近呢一直在疯狂唱多原油

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他们警告称

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全球原有库存充裕只是幻觉

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84亿总库存中约66亿桶储在陆地上

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18亿桶漂浮在海上

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真正可动用的只有8亿桶

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而且已经消耗了2.8亿桶

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如果霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁原有商业库存

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将会于今年9月触及运营底线

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届时全球油品流通系统

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将会面临实质性失灵风险

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他们的结论呢就是今年9月之前

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海峡无论如何都得重开

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否则的话大家一起玩完

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但是美国油企对此嗤之以鼻呀

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任凭白宫怎么施压增产

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美国两大能源巨头XN美孚和雪佛龙

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都拒绝提高石油产量

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坚持增长自有现金流

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而不是产能扩张

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这一帮精明的商人现在是一边拒绝增产

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一边呢利用柴油精炼产品的高价红利

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把炼油厂给开足马力猛搞

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从企业的角度来看

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这个逻辑其实没有毛病

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为什么要经常把油价给压下来呢

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涨价不是赚的更嘛

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至于高油价引发的通胀

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那是政府该操心的事情哈

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资本家拒绝为政策风险买单

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标普500指数连续五周上涨

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经历了6年来最强劲的4月AI牛市蓄势呃

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与企业强劲财报

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压过了油价和地缘风险

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让投资者对5月继续保持乐观

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但是今天跳空高开之后呢

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指数日K收出这一根倒锤子线哈

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看起来真的非常的像一根避雷针

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虽然还需要下周一的日K来确认鉴定

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但是这个时候我们必须要提高警惕

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前两天我们一直强调

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这一轮展示的终极顶部

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可能会在7350点左右

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因为那个时候嗯

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标普500指数的远期市盈率啊

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就嗯达到23倍左右哈

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在4.3%的这个呃利率环境下

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支无法支撑

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今天指数最高已经涨到了7272点了

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离目标呢不到100点

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如果全世界都盯着这个7350跑路的话

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那机构就有可能预判大家的预判

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提前扣动扳机

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上涨末期的加速赶顶阶段

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往往是伴随着更高的波动和不确定性

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非常的煎熬

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也非常的凶险

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无论是对多头还是对空头而言

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对于多头

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这个时候呢最容易被父母情绪诱导开新仓

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然后被套在高位

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空头呢则最容易在这个最后的疯狂中情绪崩溃

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选择在黎明前那一刻缴械投降

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最经典的案例就是三类doc米勒哈

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他曾在1999~200年

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互联网泡沫涨了很久之后才开始看空科技泡沫

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但是市场呢继续一路疯涨

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纳值每天像开挂一样

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他开始承受巨大的踏空压力

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然后关键来了哈

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这位大佬在纳指接近顶部的时候

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终于情绪崩溃

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熬不住了

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疯狂的空转多

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把仓位打满了科技股

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结果呢就在他刚转多没多久哈

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市场就见顶崩盘了

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他的仓位遭受了重创

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一年内亏掉了接近30亿美元

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事后他将这一段经历

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成为职业生涯中最错误的选择

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核心的教训呢不是方向判断错误

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而是在情绪失控下违背了自己的交易节奏

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连do克米勒这种级别的呃大佬都扛不住

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市场的formal情绪失控

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更别说普通投资者了哈

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他这个案例的启示呢在于

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市场中最具破坏性的往往不是一次判断失误

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而是在关键的时刻

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因为情绪波动而放大风险敞口

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特别特别是呃期权哈

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大家非常注意

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尤其是在趋势末端阶段

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无论是多头还是空头

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都更容易受到价格波动和市场情绪的干扰

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从而呢做出非理性的决策

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就是盲目加仓

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现在的7270点

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无论你是看多还是看空

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都要管好你的手

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多头不要再强行加新仓

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要注意利润保护

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空投如果已经布局了

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那就死等

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不要再乱动了哈

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别倒在黎明前

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如果呃开始准备要布局做空呢

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也不要一下子就打满

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慢慢做

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在这种formal到极点的时刻

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最大的亏损往往是发生在临门一角

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管理好你的仓位

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是避免这个陷阱的最好最有效的方法

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个股方面

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SNDK股价今天低开高走

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收涨8%

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在第三财季已经环比大增

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97%的基础上

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公司仍然预计第四财季收入终止

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环比仍将再增长约35%

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这么炸裂的业绩

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昨天盘后居然大跌啊

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当时就有分析师跳出来说

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因为指引缺乏足够惊喜

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触发了市场获利了结嗯

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公司基本面确实处于

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AI存储周期的强劲上行阶段

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但是股价过去12个月

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已经上涨超过3300%了

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今年以来涨幅也约有360%

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大量的乐观预期已经提前反映在股价中

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信他个鬼话哈

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跌了就说获利了结

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涨了就说公司前景远大呃

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果然如我昨天视频里所说的

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你看这跌了一些之后

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立即就有承接买盘进来把股价给拉起来了

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因为业绩实在是太好了

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现在资金除了炒存储之外

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也没有其他更好的标的了哈

217
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,328
就连隔壁那个龙头英伟达都连续开始出货了

218
00:09:15,328 --> 00:09:18,769
西部数据也交出了一份超市场预期财报

219
00:09:18,769 --> 00:09:21,240
股价仍然收跌0.69%

220
00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,080
所以他这边的这个情绪

221
00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,620
还是比不上隔壁那个SNDK哈

222
00:09:25,620 --> 00:09:28,720
苹果股价在昨天盘后财报刚发布时

223
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,440
反应还算是平淡

224
00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:31,759
但是在公司表示

225
00:09:31,759 --> 00:09:33,039
本财季营收指

226
00:09:33,039 --> 00:09:35,659
因为增长14%到17%

227
00:09:35,659 --> 00:09:40,350
毛利率指引高达48.5%之后啊

228
00:09:40,350 --> 00:09:41,570
大超市场预期

229
00:09:41,570 --> 00:09:43,129
股价就立即拉起来

230
00:09:43,129 --> 00:09:45,309
这就是毒苹果的超能力哈

231
00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:47,159
今年股价日内冲高回落

232
00:09:47,159 --> 00:09:49,559
但仍收涨3.24%啊

233
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,659
也是收出这么一个倒垂直线哈

234
00:09:52,659 --> 00:09:55,100
REGT第一季度业绩超预期

235
00:09:55,100 --> 00:09:57,120
营收同比增长69%

236
00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,429
连续七个季度营收增长都超过了60%

237
00:10:00,429 --> 00:10:02,309
净利润1.19亿美元

238
00:10:02,309 --> 00:10:05,620
同比激增680%

239
00:10:05,620 --> 00:10:08,899
活跃广告主数量同比增长75%

240
00:10:08,899 --> 00:10:12,200
全球平均每用户收入增长44%

241
00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,000
第二采集指引也乐观

242
00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:14,980
公司预计

243
00:10:14,980 --> 00:10:18,320
Q2营收7.15亿到7.25亿美元之间

244
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,990
调整后viva为2.85亿到2.95亿美元

245
00:10:21,990 --> 00:10:23,720
都超出市场预期

246
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:24,759
公司还表示

247
00:10:24,759 --> 00:10:28,980
正在通过AI工具持续提升广告投放效率

248
00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:33,289
包括面向REDIT场景的AI广告文案生成器呃

249
00:10:33,289 --> 00:10:35,269
转化为目标的效果

250
00:10:35,269 --> 00:10:39,190
广告收入已经占总广告收入60%以上

251
00:10:39,190 --> 00:10:41,470
股价日内呢走了个过山车

252
00:10:41,470 --> 00:10:43,210
盘前飙升14%

253
00:10:43,210 --> 00:10:46,328
开盘之后立即就一波高台跳水

254
00:10:46,328 --> 00:10:49,889
让很多人立即回想到上一次财报骚操作啊

255
00:10:49,889 --> 00:10:51,568
当时也是高开低走

256
00:10:51,568 --> 00:10:54,859
股价从涨10%变成了跌10%

257
00:10:54,859 --> 00:10:58,720
所以呢呃今天很多盘前追进去的人都被吓到

258
00:10:58,720 --> 00:10:59,320
割肉了哈

259
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:00,720
结果等他们刚割完

260
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,139
股价又拉起来了

261
00:11:02,139 --> 00:11:03,860
最后收涨13%

262
00:11:03,860 --> 00:11:05,779
日K收出一根大十字星

263
00:11:05,779 --> 00:11:08,879
这一波操作妥妥的就是割韭菜哈

264
00:11:08,879 --> 00:11:12,620
咪蒙股就是这样的股价走势呢被操控的很厉害

265
00:11:12,620 --> 00:11:13,620
虽然今天涨了

266
00:11:13,620 --> 00:11:17,318
但是VD的今年迄今仍然下跌约27%

267
00:11:17,318 --> 00:11:18,918
REGT这份财报哈

268
00:11:18,918 --> 00:11:22,778
也对于那个隔壁的apple in也是一个提示

269
00:11:22,778 --> 00:11:25,289
apple in的财报还没有发布

270
00:11:25,289 --> 00:11:28,318
估计数据应该也是会挺强劲的

271
00:11:28,318 --> 00:11:31,278
雅诗兰黛股价今天呢也是割韭菜

272
00:11:31,278 --> 00:11:33,480
因为公布的财报超预期

273
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,720
公司上调全年业绩指引

274
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,000
股价盘前还飙升近11%呢

275
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:39,149
开盘就跳水

276
00:11:39,149 --> 00:11:40,470
日内高开低走

277
00:11:40,470 --> 00:11:42,750
又套了一批跟风进来的人

278
00:11:42,750 --> 00:11:45,919
现在不仅是不能够赌财报

279
00:11:45,919 --> 00:11:48,659
就算财报出来都不能够立即跟进

280
00:11:48,659 --> 00:11:51,990
要等开盘之后再观察半小时

281
00:11:51,990 --> 00:11:55,769
因为股价分分钟都可能在盘中反转这个走势

282
00:11:55,769 --> 00:11:58,318
所以玩个股真的是太难了哈

283
00:11:58,318 --> 00:12:00,019
只看到贼吃肉

284
00:12:00,019 --> 00:12:01,219
没看到贼挨打

285
00:12:01,219 --> 00:12:03,850
尤其是像一些股票论坛呃

286
00:12:03,850 --> 00:12:05,409
经常看到一些财报

287
00:12:05,409 --> 00:12:09,950
赌对了或者是方向做对了的人晒自己的收益单

288
00:12:09,950 --> 00:12:11,149
但是亏钱的时候

289
00:12:11,149 --> 00:12:12,570
他们就很少晒亏损

290
00:12:12,570 --> 00:12:16,809
但哈都是默默的打落牙齿或血吞泪往心中流

291
00:12:16,809 --> 00:12:18,230
最好做的啊

292
00:12:18,230 --> 00:12:21,359
其实永远都是大盘基准指数

293
00:12:21,359 --> 00:12:23,239
其次呢是少数嗯

294
00:12:23,239 --> 00:12:24,999
基本面非常稳健

295
00:12:24,999 --> 00:12:27,239
现金流强劲的大盘股

296
00:12:27,239 --> 00:12:30,730
比如那些科技巨头或者是呃大蓝筹

297
00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:31,929
中小盘股

298
00:12:31,929 --> 00:12:32,750
妖起来

299
00:12:32,750 --> 00:12:34,870
只有你想象不到的走势

300
00:12:34,870 --> 00:12:37,549
没有他们做不出来的软件股

301
00:12:37,549 --> 00:12:41,389
阿特拉斯第三采集盈利和营收都超出市场预期

302
00:12:41,389 --> 00:12:43,429
营收为17.9亿美元

303
00:12:43,429 --> 00:12:46,528
同比增长了31.7%嗯

304
00:12:46,528 --> 00:12:48,428
高于预期的17亿美元

305
00:12:48,428 --> 00:12:50,068
每股收益1.75美元

306
00:12:50,068 --> 00:12:51,729
同比增长80%

307
00:12:51,729 --> 00:12:55,279
也远好于市场预期的1.33美元

308
00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:57,799
公司还将全年营收增速预期

309
00:12:57,799 --> 00:12:59,220
上调至24%

310
00:12:59,220 --> 00:13:01,279
高于原先预测22%

311
00:13:01,279 --> 00:13:04,559
剩余履约义务同比增长呢也再次加速

312
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:05,940
达到37%

313
00:13:05,940 --> 00:13:07,710
总额为40亿美元

314
00:13:07,710 --> 00:13:10,190
股价今天飙升超过29%

315
00:13:10,190 --> 00:13:12,110
而且全天保持高位

316
00:13:12,110 --> 00:13:14,490
没有任何获利回头的迹象

317
00:13:14,490 --> 00:13:17,090
这个股票呢已经跌了一年多的时间

318
00:13:17,090 --> 00:13:20,710
从2025年的高点跌去了83%呃

319
00:13:20,710 --> 00:13:22,509
在这个下跌过程中哈

320
00:13:22,509 --> 00:13:24,690
套牢盘几乎全都割肉了

321
00:13:24,690 --> 00:13:26,710
筹码洗的干干净净的

322
00:13:26,710 --> 00:13:28,929
所以轻轻松松就能够拉的很高

323
00:13:28,929 --> 00:13:30,409
今天暴涨之后呢

324
00:13:30,409 --> 00:13:33,470
年初至今仍然有45%的跌幅

325
00:13:33,470 --> 00:13:35,210
云通信龙头吹六

326
00:13:35,210 --> 00:13:37,750
股价也季后大涨近24%

327
00:13:37,750 --> 00:13:41,210
公司第一季度营收与盈利双双超预期

328
00:13:41,210 --> 00:13:43,529
并且上调全年增长指引

329
00:13:43,529 --> 00:13:45,850
Q1销售额为14.1亿美元

330
00:13:45,850 --> 00:13:47,589
同比增长20%

331
00:13:47,589 --> 00:13:50,129
净利润九千十三万美元

332
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:52,419
同比增长350%

333
00:13:52,419 --> 00:13:54,279
呃前瞻直营也乐观

334
00:13:54,279 --> 00:13:57,460
公司预计第二季度销售额将会达到14.2

335
00:13:57,460 --> 00:13:58,059
5亿美元

336
00:13:58,059 --> 00:13:59,730
同比增长16%

337
00:13:59,730 --> 00:14:02,859
只要高于市场预期的增长2.5%

338
00:14:02,859 --> 00:14:05,619
并且呢还将全年有机增长预期

339
00:14:05,619 --> 00:14:09,039
从大约8.5%上调到10%

340
00:14:09,039 --> 00:14:12,860
股价在2021~2022年崩溃之后哈

341
00:14:12,860 --> 00:14:16,710
自2023年以来呢就持续谷底反弹了

342
00:14:16,710 --> 00:14:18,149
元宇宙概念股

343
00:14:21,009 --> 00:14:23,549
公司一季度营收14.4亿美元

344
00:14:23,549 --> 00:14:25,899
不急于期的17.4亿美元

345
00:14:25,899 --> 00:14:29,578
净亏损进一步扩大到2.46亿美元

346
00:14:29,578 --> 00:14:31,479
邓达及投资者情绪的是

347
00:14:31,479 --> 00:14:34,769
公司还大幅下调了年度预订量预期

348
00:14:34,769 --> 00:14:37,129
预计第二季度营收在13.9亿

349
00:14:37,129 --> 00:14:38,929
到14.5亿美元之间

350
00:14:38,929 --> 00:14:42,730
也大幅低于市场预期的18.8亿美元

351
00:14:42,730 --> 00:14:44,450
微博士分析师称

352
00:14:44,450 --> 00:14:47,309
强制性面部年龄检查的推出

353
00:14:47,309 --> 00:14:50,429
减缓了该平台新用户注册速度

354
00:14:50,429 --> 00:14:52,889
并且导致了第一季度的增长放缓

355
00:14:52,889 --> 00:14:55,789
因为这导致很多未满18岁的青少年

356
00:14:55,789 --> 00:14:57,230
无法加入该平台

357
00:14:57,230 --> 00:14:58,309
财报公布之后

358
00:14:58,309 --> 00:15:01,309
华尔街分析师们就纷纷大幅下调了

359
00:15:01,309 --> 00:15:03,299
对该股的目标股价呃

360
00:15:03,299 --> 00:15:07,259
这只有吸引更多18岁以上的新用户哈

361
00:15:07,259 --> 00:15:10,230
才能够帮助这个公司走出困境

362
00:15:12,590 --> 00:15:13,710
直接破位了哈

363
00:15:13,710 --> 00:15:15,610
跌回到了48下方

364
00:15:15,610 --> 00:15:20,740
这个维持了两年半时间的低位盘整区间

365
00:15:20,740 --> 00:15:22,779
就如我前面所说的

366
00:15:22,779 --> 00:15:26,759
中小盘股票其实哈呃都是在赌

367
00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:29,279
尤其是这些基本面恶化

368
00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:30,700
前途不明的个股

369
00:15:30,700 --> 00:15:33,240
不要因为图便宜去买它们

370
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,860
哪怕是想博短线反弹

371
00:15:35,860 --> 00:15:37,720
也可以去找其他的

372
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,669
那些正在回调中的强势股来做

373
00:15:40,669 --> 00:15:41,710
做错了

374
00:15:41,710 --> 00:15:46,230
最坏的结果也就是躺平几天或者几周

375
00:15:46,230 --> 00:15:48,309
就可以解套甚至盈利哈

376
00:15:48,309 --> 00:15:49,730
而像这种小票

377
00:15:49,730 --> 00:15:52,068
你永远不知道底部在哪里

378
00:15:52,068 --> 00:15:53,928
地板下面还有地下室

379
00:15:53,928 --> 00:15:55,668
地下室下面还有地狱

380
00:15:55,668 --> 00:15:57,799
地狱还分18层呢

381
00:15:57,799 --> 00:16:01,259
即使你侥幸这次给你赌赢了

382
00:16:01,259 --> 00:16:03,980
只要你一天没有下这个赌桌哈

383
00:16:03,980 --> 00:16:05,809
不改变这种赌性

384
00:16:05,809 --> 00:16:09,809
那么凭运气赚到的钱早晚会输掉

385
00:16:09,809 --> 00:16:14,559
所以养成一个良好的交易习惯和风险控制意识

386
00:16:14,559 --> 00:16:17,740
比一次两次的输赢更为重要

387
00:16:17,740 --> 00:16:19,899
华尔街就是这个大赌场

388
00:16:19,899 --> 00:16:22,279
你一天不走出这个赌场

389
00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:25,259
你就不能说自己是赢家还是输家

390
00:16:25,259 --> 00:16:27,899
行今天我们就说到这里

391
00:16:27,899 --> 00:16:30,320
那祝大家这个周末好好休息

392
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:31,860
我们下次见拜拜

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