【NaNa说美股】20260304人类的悲欢并不相通！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月4号周三

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中东炮火连天

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但是华尔街呢已经把情绪翻篇了

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美股全面反弹

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科技股带头上攻

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标破500

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在昨天插针探底后

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今天彻底收复了失地

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重新回到战前六千八六千九的运行通道里

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战争带来的第一波恐慌就这样被市场快速消化

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所以说人类的悲欢并不相通

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但资金呢永远向确定性流动

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对比之下

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亚洲市场的波动要剧烈的多

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韩国综合指数在昨天暴跌后

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并且触发了熔断

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日内一度跌12%

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创下韩股历史上最大单日跌幅

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为08年金融危机以来最惨烈表现

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比那个2020年疫情那时候还要黑暗

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三星电子与SK海临时跌幅巨大

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杠杆资金被集中清算

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韩国政府也坐不住了

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盘后就宣布

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准备规模高达100万亿韩元的流动性支持计划

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为金融市场全力托底

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股市和外汇市场暴跌源于外部冲击

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并非本国经济基本面恶化

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这个救市信号释放后

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全球风险资产就明显回暖

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美股市场中的韩国相关ETF

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比如这支EWY

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还有这个fl k r都快速拉升三倍

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做多韩国的KORU波动更为剧烈

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日经期货与欧洲股市呢同步走高

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大家都看出来了

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只要这个股市跌幅过大

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政府最终都会出手稳定局面

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有政策托底预期

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削弱战争对风险资产的冲击力度

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大家可以放心抢筹码了

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消息面呢依然复杂

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今天盘前纽约时报发布了一篇报道称

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伊朗方面通过情报渠道间接释放外交信号

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暗示存在谈判空间

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polly market预测市场对停火概率的压注小幅上升

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风险情绪呢得到了提振

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虽然这一篇报道

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随后就遭到伊朗方面的坚决否认哈

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称这个是敌人

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纯粹的谎言和心理战

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但是美股涨势并没有因此而逆转

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说明资金更关注方向

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而并非细节的真伪

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消息本身啊往往不是决定走势的核心哈

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市场从来不是有新闻驱动的

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而是由仓位驱动

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大家一定要记住这一点

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美股今天之所以不回吐

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核心原因在于

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场内早就已经堆满了对冲仓位

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标普500的看跌期权

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delta敞口规模处于历史极端哈

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机构们相当于提前就交了高额的保险费了

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当所有人都买了put

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并且完成了风险覆盖之后

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市场反而失去了继续下跌所需的新增卖压

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因为真正的恐慌性抛售往往是发生在

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还没来得及对冲的阶段

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而一旦风险被广泛的覆盖了呢

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那悲观情绪本身哈就已经被价格消化了

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你可以理解为市场短期交易的

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从来不是新闻的真相哈

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那个是记者的事情

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市场短期交易的是预期与现实之间的差值

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俗称预期差

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所以大家明白了吗

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我们通常总是说这个数据是数据

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消息是消息解读权掌握在华尔街手里

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其实就解读权是掌握在这个仓位的这个真相上

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数据面上

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今天盘前公布的美国2月ADP就业人数呢

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增加了6.3

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万

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人为2025年11月来最大增幅

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超过预期和前值

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显示劳动力市场人均任性

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随后早盘十点公布的ISM非制造业

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PMI升到56.1

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为近几年高位区间

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表明美国服务业扩张势头稳健啊

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你看就业稳定

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经济扩张

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这个就是美股在外部冲击之下

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仍能够维持强势的底气

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数据公布之后呢

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指数明显放大了日内涨幅

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表面看当前市场似乎很受这个新闻驱动哈

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各类相互矛盾的消息

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每个小时都在左右市场情绪

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实质上

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美股更多的其实它是在交易美国自身基本面

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中东战火再猛也打不到美国本土

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至于原油

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美国本身就是能源进出口国

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相较亚洲与欧洲对运输中断的敏感度更低

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油价上涨带来的更多是通胀预期的波动哈

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而并非是供给恐慌

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在刚开始冲击过后

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市场重新又回到原来的震荡结构之中

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美股这个整体表现要远好于欧洲与亚洲股市

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从期权链结构来看

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博弈区间正在扩大

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从原本的6800~7000点区间

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变为6700~7000点区间

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而上方天花板7000点附近

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仍有密集的call卖盘压制

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而这个6900~6950呢

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是短线强阻力区域

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所以如果想要做空的话

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可以埋伏在6900和6950

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这两个地方下方嗯

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机构呢在6700~6750点买好了

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较深的保护仓位

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所以要抄底要做多

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可以在6700和6750哈

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呃这个开始进场嗯

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市场在接下来的两周内呢

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更倾向于在6750~6900

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这个区间进行剧烈的洗盘

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而并非单边趋势突破

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没有真正的筑底

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也没有彻底转弱

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本质还是区间博弈

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这种行情对散户极不友好

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节奏频繁反转

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你这散户弱小可怜又无助

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破解的方法只有两种

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如果你相信牛市能延续

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那你就低位分批布局

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耐心持有

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让主力自己折腾啊

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当然要选自己有信心的股票哈

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不要去做那些妖股

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你完全不了解的股票呃

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如果是做短线呢

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就围绕我刚才所给出的关键支撑与阻力

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来操作哈

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中间的波动你就权当噪音来处理

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波动率指数ex已经明显的回落

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但是仍没有跌破20关口

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说明机构对这个局势可能延长

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仍保留着一定的防御哈

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并没有真正的放心

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若说要真正卸下警惕

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那我们需要看到这个VIX持续压低到20以下

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而不是当日的回落

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能源市场呢进入了观望阶段

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此前油价的急涨已经计入了部分供应风险

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交易员现在评估川普提出的那个美国海军护航

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通过霍尔木兹海峡的方案是否可行

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根据英国金融时报报道

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目前大量游轮滞留在霍尔木兹海峡外围

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船东和保险公司都拒绝让船只穿越交火区

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但这个真的就是用命去赚钱是吧

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保险成本大幅上升

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油价后续方向呢

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取决于封锁的持续时间与冲突的烈度哈

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如果运输能够逐步恢复的话

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那么溢价将会回吐

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若是封锁延长

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那能源将会继续成为通胀的变量

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比特币表现强势

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价格重回7万美元三番

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政策层面对加密监管框架的讨论升温

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川普表示

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美国首个未稳定币发

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仅提供监管框架的天使法案

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正受到嗯银行业的威胁与削弱

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呃

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我还是觉得战争可能也促使很多人啊

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通过这个比特币啊

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把资金就转移掉

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我相信很多人应该跟我是一样的想法

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加密概念股也同步走高

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风险偏好回弹的信号

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在高波动资产中体现的就更为明显

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qun base今天股价大涨

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官方公告

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该平台的股票交易功能正式上线了

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美在此前这一轮展示

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已经提前计入了地缘风险溢价

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所以真正开战之后反而出现了卖市时回吐

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加上油价带来的再通胀担忧

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美债收益率回升

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那所以美债价格就回落

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资金从避险资产部分回流权益市场

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其他个股方面

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博通现在盘后公布了财报

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季度业绩与指引都超过市场预期哈

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但是超出的并不是很多

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另外呢

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公司还宣布了100亿美元的新股票回购计划

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这股价盘后不温不火的

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所以就是完美双杀了

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但你看那个之前英伟达的财报多么炸裂

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就好到逆天了

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简直完美

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股价都那个下跌了嗯

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博通这个财报如果它要大涨的话

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那英伟达的股东是真的不服气哈

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MOVX这支毛票股昨天单日翻了七八倍

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从17美分涨到了收盘价1.12美元

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因为公司宣布收到美军战斧导弹组件生产订单

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00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:03,080
至于订单的具体数额和其他细节都没有披露

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00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,120
这个消息正好就赶上打仗的的时候放出来

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00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,539
在情绪刺激之下

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00:10:08,539 --> 00:10:10,240
股价瞬间就拉爆了

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00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:13,100
股票总市值才几千万美元哈

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00:10:13,100 --> 00:10:17,158
昨天换手率居然就高达匪夷所思的

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1766%

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00:10:19,919 --> 00:10:20,779
这意味着

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00:10:20,779 --> 00:10:23,279
每一股流通股在这一天之内

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00:10:23,279 --> 00:10:27,589
平均被转手交易了17.66次啊

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00:10:27,589 --> 00:10:32,879
明显大部分筹码是被少数高频交易系统

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00:10:32,879 --> 00:10:37,870
或者游资在几秒甚至毫秒内反复对导产生的哈

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00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:39,269
就说的那个对敲

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00:10:39,269 --> 00:10:43,299
少部分是跟风盘进来玩刮头皮的

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00:10:43,299 --> 00:10:46,320
每一个持股人的平均持仓时间

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00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,809
可能只有不到十五二十分钟

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00:10:48,809 --> 00:10:51,129
也就是所谓的博傻游戏啦

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00:10:51,129 --> 00:10:52,759
这股票盘子这么小

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00:10:52,759 --> 00:10:54,720
少量资金的反复进出

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00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,460
就能够推测出巨大的成交量哈

237
00:10:57,460 --> 00:11:01,139
非常非常典型的妖股操盘这个迹象

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00:11:01,139 --> 00:11:03,399
以前我也偶尔玩玩毛票

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00:11:03,399 --> 00:11:05,860
但是现在已经洗心革面

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00:11:05,860 --> 00:11:07,259
重新做人了哈

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00:11:07,259 --> 00:11:12,839
嗯其实玩毛票妖股呢最好是在美联储大放水

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00:11:12,839 --> 00:11:15,859
牛市又欣欣向荣的时候

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00:11:15,859 --> 00:11:17,958
像现在市场这么动荡

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00:11:17,958 --> 00:11:19,809
美联储又不肯降息

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00:11:19,809 --> 00:11:21,169
嗯就要收着点

246
00:11:21,169 --> 00:11:22,250
不能太浪了哈

247
00:11:22,250 --> 00:11:25,980
只有内幕人士才能够抓住妖股这种行情

248
00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:29,950
普通小散进去都是给游资送人头的

249
00:11:29,950 --> 00:11:31,769
你要是只买一点点吧

250
00:11:31,769 --> 00:11:33,970
那就只能赚个三瓜两枣的

251
00:11:35,389 --> 00:11:36,830
赚着卖白菜的钱

252
00:11:36,830 --> 00:11:37,860
没啥意思啊

253
00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:39,539
你要是胆子太大

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00:11:39,539 --> 00:11:40,799
这个梭哈进去

255
00:11:40,799 --> 00:11:42,000
那就只能中午买

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00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,039
因为早晚都得完犊子呀

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00:11:44,039 --> 00:11:46,578
所以妖股后面我也懒得看了

258
00:11:46,578 --> 00:11:49,158
罗斯百货呢第四季度财报超预期

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00:11:49,158 --> 00:11:52,769
销售额创下66.4亿美元的历史新高

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00:11:53,230 --> 00:11:54,190
2026年

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00:11:54,190 --> 00:11:57,309
同店销售额预计增长3%到4%之间

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00:11:57,309 --> 00:12:00,139
略高于平均预期的3.05%

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00:12:00,139 --> 00:12:03,820
这表明即便宏观经济不确定性笼罩市场

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00:12:03,820 --> 00:12:05,679
消费者对它的折扣

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00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,940
服饰以及配饰的需求仍保持强劲

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00:12:08,940 --> 00:12:11,820
公司还宣布了2026与2027财年

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00:12:11,820 --> 00:12:14,990
高达25.5亿美元的新股票回购计划

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00:12:14,990 --> 00:12:17,490
最近百货股怎么都走的这么强

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00:12:17,490 --> 00:12:20,850
股价从去年8月期金涨了超70%了

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00:12:20,850 --> 00:12:23,470
昨天公布财报的那个best b啊

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00:12:23,470 --> 00:12:24,690
财报也是超预期

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00:12:24,690 --> 00:12:25,409
股价大涨

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00:12:25,409 --> 00:12:27,669
看来美国经济真的很好嘛

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00:12:27,669 --> 00:12:30,710
怪不得美股散户们个个都是信心十足哈

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00:12:30,710 --> 00:12:31,669
逢低就买入

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00:12:31,669 --> 00:12:32,309
不像A股

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00:12:32,309 --> 00:12:36,589
散户个个都是天天呃提心吊胆的疫苗股

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00:12:36,589 --> 00:12:38,928
莫德纳同意支付9.5亿美元

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00:12:38,928 --> 00:12:41,720
结束与几家公司的专利纠纷呃

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00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,700
现在公司呢计划与OpenAI深度合作

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00:12:44,700 --> 00:12:47,899
将AI深度嵌入MINA药物

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00:12:47,899 --> 00:12:50,179
研发与运营体系的增长

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00:12:50,179 --> 00:12:51,299
叙事主线

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00:12:51,299 --> 00:12:56,490
市场正在将MINA平台与这个前野AI能力

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00:12:56,490 --> 00:12:58,139
定价成摩托车哪

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00:12:58,139 --> 00:13:01,620
下一个阶段股价主升浪的核心催化剂

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00:13:01,620 --> 00:13:03,690
看股价月线走势

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00:13:03,690 --> 00:13:08,179
似乎正在走出一个圆弧底的这个呃形态哈

289
00:13:08,179 --> 00:13:10,820
之前这个长期底部盘整阶段

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00:13:10,820 --> 00:13:13,799
就呈现出好像一个网状的样子

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00:13:13,799 --> 00:13:16,299
东南亚电商系昨天公布财报

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00:13:16,299 --> 00:13:17,960
Q4收入增长强劲

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00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:19,759
同比增长了38%

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00:13:19,759 --> 00:13:21,799
但是盈利没达到市场预期

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00:13:21,799 --> 00:13:22,720
财报公布之后

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00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:23,909
股价就大跌

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00:13:23,909 --> 00:13:26,970
多家投行呢下调对该股的目标价

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00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:31,139
不过平均目标价仍高达150美元

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00:13:31,139 --> 00:13:33,519
大幅高于今天的这个收盘价哈

300
00:13:33,519 --> 00:13:34,039
这意味着

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00:13:34,039 --> 00:13:34,799
华尔街认为

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00:13:34,799 --> 00:13:38,590
该股大约有70%的潜在上行空间

303
00:13:38,590 --> 00:13:40,629
记得股价自去年9月以来

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00:13:40,629 --> 00:13:42,269
已经连续七个月回撤了

305
00:13:42,269 --> 00:13:44,169
跌幅接近60%

306
00:13:44,169 --> 00:13:45,460
总体来看

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00:13:45,460 --> 00:13:49,480
美股呢已经完成了第一阶段的情绪修复

308
00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,580
但是还没有进入趋势加速阶段哈

309
00:13:53,580 --> 00:13:55,960
这个可谓是上有阻力

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00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:57,039
下有托底

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00:13:57,039 --> 00:13:59,220
3月份属于过渡月

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00:13:59,220 --> 00:14:03,059
不是宏观趋势最终定调的时间点

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00:14:03,059 --> 00:14:05,580
而是资金重新排仓

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00:14:05,580 --> 00:14:08,480
对冲再平衡的窗口期

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00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,220
在这种环境下呢

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00:14:10,220 --> 00:14:12,279
1~4周的走势

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00:14:12,279 --> 00:14:15,568
往往是仓位结构与流动性之间的博弈

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00:14:15,568 --> 00:14:19,048
这种结构性力量要超过一两条

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00:14:19,048 --> 00:14:21,759
经济数据或者突发新闻

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00:14:21,759 --> 00:14:23,679
能把行情打穿了

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00:14:23,679 --> 00:14:26,889
使流动性出现系统性收缩

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00:14:26,889 --> 00:14:29,549
嗯能把行情迅速拉起来的呢

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00:14:29,549 --> 00:14:33,059
是仓位失衡所引发的被动回补

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00:14:33,059 --> 00:14:36,110
在流动性还没有崩坏之前

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00:14:36,110 --> 00:14:40,509
3月更大的概率仍然是震荡与洗盘

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00:14:40,509 --> 00:14:42,480
所以大家要耐心行

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00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:43,860
今天我们就说到这里

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00:14:43,860 --> 00:14:45,379
那我们明天见拜拜

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