【NaNa说美股】20260310海峡粗大事了😨！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月10号

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周二

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国际油价持续回落

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美股午盘前一度延续了昨天的涨势

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但是在下午02:13分

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一则突发消息导致股指呢短线跳水

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又是这个哥伦比亚广播公司访分说

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美国情报部门发现

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伊朗正在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷

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确切数量不清楚

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大概在2000枚到6000枚之间

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消息一出来

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原有立即就收窄了日内跌幅

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美元的短线拉升

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然后白宫这边随即就跳出来安抚市场

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称

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美国海军在必要的时候将为邮轮提供护航

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这都嘴炮几天了

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现在游轮都还在周边的港口不敢过海峡呢

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最搞笑的是

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美国能源部长还发了一个错误消息

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他在X平台上发帖称

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美国海军护送了一艘邮轮通过了霍尔木兹海峡

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几分钟后呢

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这个帖子就被删除了

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白宫随后就表示

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哎呀

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美国军方迄今为止并没有护送任何船只

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通过霍尔木兹海峡

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伊朗革命卫队发言人呢也否认了这个说法

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白宫称

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对伊朗的军事行动将会在川普认定目标

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达成伊朗无条件投降时结束

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第一个条件还简单

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那无非就是川普一句话的事

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但是想要伊朗无条件投降

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这还挺难的

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因为不派地面部队的话

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就这么空中砸来砸去的

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你还以为炸薯条呢不可能这么简单

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就无条件投降呀

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总之今天的消息面哈非常的混乱

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各种小作文满天飞

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我估计各路人马都在私底下炒股炒油

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最后美股三大股指回吐了日内大部分涨幅

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标普与道指呢都小幅收跌

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纳指基本平收

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在昨天的记者会上

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川普表示

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美国对伊朗的军事行动是一次短期行动

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很快就会结束

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但是不会在本周结束

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这番话呢

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把昨天市场尾盘暂时已接近尾声的乐观与期哈

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稍微往回收了一点

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利好的部分就是冲突不会长期化

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川普强调这是一次短期行动

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那就意味着

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美国并不打算陷入长期战争或者地面战争

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从宏观资产定价角度来看哈

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这一点非常关键

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因为市场最害怕的就是像伊拉克战争那样

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持续几个月甚至几年

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如果只是几周级别的军事行动

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那金融市场通常呢是可以消化的

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而不会在本周结束

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意味着接下来几天哈

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仍然存在军事升级或者是报复行动的可能

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这会让交易员继续维持一定的风险溢价

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所以呢市场把这段话就解读为去风险

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但不是完全去这个解除风险

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在实际交易层面

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市场情绪从原本极端恐慌回到可控风险状态

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但是不会直接就进入这个风险狂欢嗯

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空投呢已经被昨天的大反弹逼走了一部分哈

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但是新的多头也不会在高位大规模的追涨了

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指数正在6850

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这个右多区与下翻6750

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这个雷区之间做最后的博弈

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今天指数回踩二次确认了6750支撑后

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掉头再次上攻

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最高拉到了6845点

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6850~6860呢

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是本轮空头回补的最后一段哈

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想要嗯继续站上月均线

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那就需要多头主动买盘进来才能够推动了

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如果没有新的多头进来接班的话

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那反弹就会失去动力

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指数呢将很快再次回踩

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测试下方6700点这个关键技术位

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可能嗯这个周五或者下周一之前可能就会达到

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当下市场流动性啊极端枯竭

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基本面因素对短期定价影响不大

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嗯完全是由仓位主导了这个走势

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高盛与小魔交易平台呢双双发出警告

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称

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川普的TAO只能修复情绪

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不能修复流动性

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市场在短期企稳后

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仍将面临二次探底的压力

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高斯模型显示

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由于近期市场剧烈波动

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CCTA已经触发了风控减仓机制

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未来一周到一个月内

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无论市场涨跌哈

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CCTA都是股票的净卖方

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而且预计未来一周的抛售规模

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将会创下有记录以来的历史极值

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就会非常的大

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算法交易将会成为市场持续失血的主要源头

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所以大家要提高警惕

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一旦标普500跌破中期枢纽支撑

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就是6735~6750

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这个区间的话

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将会引发更猛烈的系统性抛售

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而摩根大通仓位情报团队分析呢则表示

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尽管近期有震荡

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但市场并没有出现清洗式的彻底去杠杆

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投资者仍持仓中性

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而并非低配

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这意味着市场缺乏足够的后续买盘来承接

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CCTA的抛压

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也就是这个空头回补结束了之后

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染料没已经烧完了

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那多头又不愿意接的话

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如果再出现CCTA抛压啊

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那这个没人去接

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价格就可能会呈现一个自由落体

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就会跌得非常的快

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期权市场数据呢则显示

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大资金并没有因为川普的代扣交易而放弃防御

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他们认为反弹可能只是暂时的

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因此不仅没有撤哈

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反而通过展期或者加买低位put

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来应对接下来的波动

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6600~6700区间的铺车墙依然很稳固

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甚至有资金在持续买入

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6400~6500区间的远端深度虚值put

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摩根大通本季度的结构性期权头寸中

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6475点是一个关键的put支撑位

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这个点位的持仓呢非常的稳定

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只要标普500指数没能连续站稳

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六千九五百以上哈

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机构投资者就不会撤掉下方这些终极防御仓位

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这也意味着市场随时面临二次探底的风险

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消息面上

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韩国东亚日报援引政府消息人士的话称

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美国正准备将驻韩美军

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部分军力抽调至中东地区

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以满足中东战场的需求

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可能被调往中东的装备

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包括爱国者防空导弹系统

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陆军战术导弹系统以及多管火箭系统等等

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与此同时

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美国空军的大型运输机呃

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C5和C17也频繁出现在韩国乌山空军基地

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这被外界认为是在为潜在的军事调动中

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来做准备

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另外呢

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美国还计划调动第三艘航母

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乔治布什号航母前往中东

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三艘航母战斗群集结在一起

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就代表了美国海军整个航母舰队

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1/4的力量哈

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这就是自2003年伊拉克战争以来

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美军首次将三艘航母战斗群

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部署到中东的这个中央司令部防区

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这意味着这个战略部署的规模和决心

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是前所未有的

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如果真的准备结束战争

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就没必要投入更多军力

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也没必要约见军工巨头尽快增产武器了是吧

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所以川普昨天那番话的虚虚实实的哈

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不能够全信

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也许只是缓兵之计

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迷惑已懒

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就像之前所谓的谈判是假斩首行动才是真

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美伊联军这一次作战

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目的是要扶持一个伊朗亲美政权

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控制伊朗石油和霍尔木兹海峡

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消除对以色列的威胁

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这几个目的目前呢一个都还没有

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真正实现呢

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所以中东局势依然充满了不确定性

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市场先交易川普的叙事

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然后再用油价来验证这个叙事

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原油价格今天日内剧烈波动

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川普昨天表示

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油价并没有像他担心的那样大幅上涨

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但是美国

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我正在暂时免除部分与石油相关的制裁

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以确保充足的石油供应

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并且降低价格

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他没有对此进行详细的说明

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但是据了解的

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美国上周已经发布了为期30天的临时豁免

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允许目前滞留在海上的俄罗斯石油销往印度

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另外呢国际能源署今天也开会哈

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讨论供应问题

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会议将会通报是否需要释放时有库存

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有的时候啊其实并不需要真的去释放库存

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只要开会讨论

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有这个动作就足以形成预期管理了

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就和美联储嘴炮降息加息差不多同个道理

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只要市场交易这个预期就行了

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不过呢霍尔木兹海峡目前仍处于封闭状态

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说明这个油价短期难以回落到

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冲突爆发前的水平

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通常来说

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第一次大幅回落之后还会再次向上冲的

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但是不太可能破顶了

214
00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:45,039
z seven这个组织随时嗯释放石油储备的威慑呀

215
00:09:45,039 --> 00:09:48,659
已经把油价给分顶在120美元了

216
00:09:48,659 --> 00:09:53,200
后市呢油价可能就会在75~100美元之间

217
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:54,059
反复吧

218
00:09:54,059 --> 00:09:56,659
波动率指数VIXX处于25附近

219
00:09:56,659 --> 00:09:59,649
我们还不能够过早的解开安全带哈

220
00:09:59,649 --> 00:10:02,690
比特币价格重返7万美元关口上方

221
00:10:02,690 --> 00:10:05,759
这次比特币的表现真的让人刮目相看

222
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:07,559
在地缘冲突升级

223
00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:08,779
能源价格波动

224
00:10:08,779 --> 00:10:11,159
金融市场不确定性增加的时候

225
00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:12,279
一部分资金呢

226
00:10:12,279 --> 00:10:16,490
会把比特币当做一种非主权资产来配置

227
00:10:16,490 --> 00:10:19,769
就是说它不依赖任何国家银行体系

228
00:10:19,769 --> 00:10:22,568
也不会被单一政府冻结账户

229
00:10:22,568 --> 00:10:24,609
所以在风险事件期间

230
00:10:24,609 --> 00:10:27,759
经常就会出现另类避险的资金流入

231
00:10:27,759 --> 00:10:32,590
尤其是在战争制裁或者政权不稳定的情况之下

232
00:10:32,590 --> 00:10:34,610
一些富裕家族

233
00:10:34,610 --> 00:10:36,870
一些寡头权贵家族

234
00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:42,519
这在历史上已经出现过很多次了哈

235
00:10:42,519 --> 00:10:44,279
比如俄乌战争爆发后

236
00:10:44,279 --> 00:10:47,039
俄罗斯资金大量流入加密市场

237
00:10:47,039 --> 00:10:49,399
伊朗呢因为长期受到制裁

238
00:10:49,399 --> 00:10:54,818
民间和部分灰色资金也一直都在使用加密资产

239
00:10:54,818 --> 00:10:57,339
加密货币概念股也都集体走强

240
00:10:57,339 --> 00:10:58,538
SOCO制财报以来

241
00:10:58,538 --> 00:10:59,698
股价已经翻倍了

242
00:10:59,698 --> 00:11:01,899
走势完全与大盘脱钩

243
00:11:01,899 --> 00:11:03,610
走出了独立行情

244
00:11:03,610 --> 00:11:04,610
个股方面

245
00:11:04,610 --> 00:11:06,470
甲骨文盘后公布了财报

246
00:11:06,470 --> 00:11:07,539
股价上涨

247
00:11:07,539 --> 00:11:09,820
公司2026财年第三财季

248
00:11:09,820 --> 00:11:11,740
营收为172亿美元

249
00:11:11,740 --> 00:11:13,279
同比增长22%

250
00:11:13,279 --> 00:11:15,940
其中云营收89亿美元

251
00:11:15,940 --> 00:11:17,940
同比增长44%

252
00:11:17,940 --> 00:11:22,120
作为业务增长引琴的云基础设施

253
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,539
营收呢达到49亿美元

254
00:11:24,539 --> 00:11:27,889
按固定汇率计算飙升了84%

255
00:11:27,889 --> 00:11:30,169
每股收益1.79美元

256
00:11:30,169 --> 00:11:31,970
同比增长21%

257
00:11:31,970 --> 00:11:34,250
剩余履约义务总额

258
00:11:34,250 --> 00:11:37,169
达到了惊人的5530亿美元

259
00:11:37,169 --> 00:11:39,789
比上个季度增加了290亿美元

260
00:11:39,789 --> 00:11:41,519
管理层指出呃

261
00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:46,590
这个数额激增的主要源于大型AI合同

262
00:11:46,590 --> 00:11:47,389
管理层呢

263
00:11:47,389 --> 00:11:49,629
还正式将2027财年

264
00:11:49,629 --> 00:11:52,440
营收指引上调到900亿美元

265
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,860
公司已经通过投资及债券

266
00:11:54,860 --> 00:11:57,120
和强制可转换优先股

267
00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,220
筹集了大约300亿美元

268
00:11:59,220 --> 00:12:02,480
目标呢是继续筹集200亿美元哈

269
00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,539
就一共筹集500亿美元

270
00:12:04,539 --> 00:12:07,460
以支持大规模的基础设施扩建

271
00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:09,019
另外公司还澄清

272
00:12:09,019 --> 00:12:12,519
阿比林数据中心项目按计划进行

273
00:12:12,519 --> 00:12:15,000
已经有200兆瓦投入运行了

274
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:19,960
一家原本做高尔夫球场运营的公司AGH

275
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,289
突然在美股市场引起了一些热情的关注

276
00:12:23,289 --> 00:12:28,110
公司宣布将与一家无人机初创公司合并嗯

277
00:12:28,110 --> 00:12:28,990
消息公布之后

278
00:12:28,990 --> 00:12:30,909
股价昨天就涨超12%

279
00:12:30,909 --> 00:12:32,870
之所以引发市场的关注啊

280
00:12:32,870 --> 00:12:34,549
是因为这笔交易背后呢

281
00:12:34,549 --> 00:12:37,179
有川普的两个儿子参与其中

282
00:12:37,179 --> 00:12:39,860
参与这笔交易的投资方之一哈

283
00:12:39,860 --> 00:12:42,659
是美国一家风险投资公司

284
00:12:42,659 --> 00:12:45,659
两位太子爷就是这家公司背后的支持者

285
00:12:45,659 --> 00:12:48,340
市场显然会产生联想是吧

286
00:12:48,340 --> 00:12:51,750
资金迅速炒作这一层政治背景

287
00:12:51,750 --> 00:12:53,210
按照交易结构

288
00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:56,470
这家公司将会通过反向合并完成重组

289
00:12:56,470 --> 00:12:57,929
交易完成之后呢

290
00:12:57,929 --> 00:13:01,840
公司就不再以高尔夫求这个业务为主了

291
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,279
而是转型为无人机企业

292
00:13:04,279 --> 00:13:07,600
所以最近哈这个无人机战场打得很厉害

293
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,159
顺带一提和川普家族有关的无人机概念股

294
00:13:11,159 --> 00:13:13,639
还有一家UMAC

295
00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:15,320
这家公司在2024年

296
00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:19,279
曾任命川普的这个一个儿子担任顾问呃

297
00:13:19,279 --> 00:13:20,730
委员会成员

298
00:13:20,730 --> 00:13:24,409
市场里把这些股票就称为川普概念股

299
00:13:24,409 --> 00:13:26,149
只要出现政策

300
00:13:26,149 --> 00:13:29,039
军工或者无人机相关的消息

301
00:13:29,039 --> 00:13:31,399
就容易被资金拿来炒一波

302
00:13:31,399 --> 00:13:34,440
毕竟爸爸在白宫手搓K线嘛

303
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,559
那当儿子的在职公司肯定是有一些消息是吧

304
00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:39,840
康熙哥CNC

305
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,899
今天在巴克莱求医疗保健会议上

306
00:13:42,899 --> 00:13:45,080
重申2026财年展望

307
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,850
并且赎回10亿美元的2027年到期债券

308
00:13:48,850 --> 00:13:52,129
表面看是中性甚至略偏利好的

309
00:13:52,129 --> 00:13:54,610
但市场呢却把重点解读成了利空

310
00:13:54,610 --> 00:13:56,220
导致股价大跌

311
00:13:56,220 --> 00:13:58,899
同时脱离了同类医保股

312
00:13:58,899 --> 00:14:00,720
因为公司在会上披露

313
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:06,539
旗下的欧巴巴care的医保用户数量正在明显下滑

314
00:14:06,539 --> 00:14:10,259
预计从去年底的大约550万啊

315
00:14:10,259 --> 00:14:13,139
下降到一季度大约只有350万了

316
00:14:13,139 --> 00:14:16,259
这个降幅要高于此前市场的预期

317
00:14:16,259 --> 00:14:21,078
原因呢主要是疫情时期的补贴逐步的推出

318
00:14:21,078 --> 00:14:25,239
一些低收入用户呢转向更便宜的保险方案

319
00:14:25,239 --> 00:14:26,929
或者直接就退出市场

320
00:14:26,929 --> 00:14:30,529
同时留下来的用户往往医疗需求更高

321
00:14:30,529 --> 00:14:31,850
成本也更高

322
00:14:31,850 --> 00:14:34,679
这会压缩保险公司的利润空间

323
00:14:34,679 --> 00:14:36,480
目前市场还在等待

324
00:14:38,580 --> 00:14:42,809
对MAGQ和医保报销费率的最终决定

325
00:14:42,809 --> 00:14:46,990
市场把CNC的这个最新表态当做一个信号

326
00:14:46,990 --> 00:14:50,759
就是政府医保市场的增长可能正在放缓

327
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,480
其实并不是因为公司赎回10亿美元债券哈

328
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,099
赎回债券本身属于正常的去杠杆操作

329
00:14:59,099 --> 00:15:01,099
理论上还是偏利好的

330
00:15:01,099 --> 00:15:03,240
不然没钱怎么赎回呢是吧

331
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,600
医保客户正在减少

332
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:07,980
而医疗成本却在上升

333
00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:09,100
这才是问题

334
00:15:09,100 --> 00:15:12,870
对于整个医保保险呃板块来说

335
00:15:12,870 --> 00:15:15,099
都是一个比较麻烦的组合

336
00:15:15,099 --> 00:15:18,298
目前CNC股价呢处于自由落体状态

337
00:15:18,298 --> 00:15:22,289
咱们先不要急着去接飞到这种恐慌性抛售

338
00:15:22,289 --> 00:15:25,970
通常需要两三个交易日才能够释放完毕

339
00:15:25,970 --> 00:15:28,350
我们先等股价缩量企稳

340
00:15:28,350 --> 00:15:30,549
MOAH股价能也在下跌

341
00:15:30,549 --> 00:15:34,059
即使有大空头M的大力加持哈

342
00:15:34,059 --> 00:15:35,580
股价表现也很疲软

343
00:15:35,580 --> 00:15:37,580
而且还被踢出了标普500指数

344
00:15:37,580 --> 00:15:40,349
所以变成这样子也能够理解啦

345
00:15:40,349 --> 00:15:43,048
行今天我们就简单的说到这里哈

346
00:15:43,048 --> 00:15:44,840
那我们明天见拜拜

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