BV18PovBdE6f · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,200 ATNT这个名字你肯定不陌生 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:07,280 但这家电信巨头它的未来到底会是什么样呢 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:07,900 今天啊 4 00:00:10,759 --> 00:00:11,960 来好好扒一扒 5 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:14,949 看看他们现在正在下的一盘大棋 6 00:00:14,949 --> 00:00:15,669 好 7 00:00:15,669 --> 00:00:17,030 你看报告的标题里 8 00:00:17,030 --> 00:00:19,629 这句话可以说是精准的抓住了 9 00:00:19,629 --> 00:00:21,789 ATNT现在的核心矛盾 10 00:00:21,789 --> 00:00:24,410 战略推进中的必然取舍 11 00:00:24,410 --> 00:00:25,969 这听起来有点绕口 12 00:00:25,969 --> 00:00:28,949 但说白了就是一场高风险的平衡游戏 13 00:00:28,949 --> 00:00:30,530 像走钢丝一样 14 00:00:30,530 --> 00:00:33,049 要想看懂ATNT的策略 15 00:00:33,049 --> 00:00:35,509 咱们得先明白这家公司啊 16 00:00:35,509 --> 00:00:36,979 其实有两个面孔 17 00:00:36,979 --> 00:00:39,920 一个代表过去正在慢慢老去 18 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:44,200 另一个呢代表未来是他们全部的希望所在 19 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:45,359 你想想看 20 00:00:45,359 --> 00:00:49,479 一边呢是那种老式的吱吱作响的铜线 21 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:51,500 电话业务正在不断萎缩 22 00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:55,768 而另一边就是代表着未来的先进连接服务 23 00:00:55,768 --> 00:00:57,228 TNT的内部 24 00:00:57,228 --> 00:01:00,469 正在经历一场这样脱胎换骨的转变 25 00:01:00,469 --> 00:01:04,569 所以这个听起来很高大上的仙剑连接 26 00:01:04,569 --> 00:01:05,920 到底是个啥呢 27 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,000 其实很简单 28 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,060 就是我们现在离不开的东西 29 00:01:09,060 --> 00:01:10,959 速度超快的光纤网络 30 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:12,359 5G手机型号 31 00:01:12,359 --> 00:01:14,659 还有那种固定无线接入服务 32 00:01:14,659 --> 00:01:18,159 这些就是ATNT未来的增长引擎 33 00:01:18,159 --> 00:01:21,500 唉你看这张图简直是一目了然啊 34 00:01:21,500 --> 00:01:24,859 这些不断往上走的柱子就是新业务的收入 35 00:01:24,859 --> 00:01:26,640 你看它不仅在增长 36 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,200 而且增长的势头已经足够强劲 37 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,640 可以去弥补那些老业务的下滑了 38 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,659 这就说明新引擎的马力是够的好 39 00:01:35,659 --> 00:01:37,000 新业务在增长 40 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:37,900 这很棒 41 00:01:37,900 --> 00:01:39,120 但问题来了 42 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,629 怎么才能让它长得更快呢 43 00:01:41,629 --> 00:01:45,629 ATNT给出的答案就是他们下的一个大赌注 44 00:01:45,629 --> 00:01:47,930 一个叫做融合的策略 45 00:01:47,930 --> 00:01:51,109 也就是咱们常说的捆绑销售 46 00:01:51,109 --> 00:01:54,250 融合这个词儿听起来有点玄乎 47 00:01:54,250 --> 00:01:58,049 其实说白了就是让你把家里的网和手机套餐 48 00:01:58,049 --> 00:02:00,569 都从ATNT1家公司办了 49 00:02:00,569 --> 00:02:03,890 这样一来你就被粘在它们的生态系统里 50 00:02:03,890 --> 00:02:05,950 想走就没那么容易了 51 00:02:05,950 --> 00:02:07,810 那这招好不好用呢 52 00:02:07,810 --> 00:02:10,569 你看看这个数字差不多一半了 53 00:02:10,569 --> 00:02:13,849 现在ATNT接近45帕的光纤宽带用户 54 00:02:13,849 --> 00:02:16,110 同时也用着他们的手机卡 55 00:02:16,110 --> 00:02:18,579 看来这招确实挺管用的 56 00:02:18,579 --> 00:02:22,399 所以说费这么大劲把用户捆在一起 57 00:02:22,399 --> 00:02:23,498 图啥呢 58 00:02:23,498 --> 00:02:26,819 这背后肯定有一个更深层次的目标 59 00:02:26,819 --> 00:02:27,819 归根结底 60 00:02:27,819 --> 00:02:29,000 就是为了一个 61 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:33,088 所有电信公司都无比在意的关键指标 62 00:02:33,088 --> 00:02:36,629 没错答案其实就两个字留人 63 00:02:36,629 --> 00:02:40,009 他们要做的就是想尽办法把你留下来 64 00:02:40,009 --> 00:02:42,750 别让你跑到竞争对手那边去 65 00:02:42,750 --> 00:02:44,469 这个客户流失率呀 66 00:02:44,469 --> 00:02:47,400 可以说是所有定业制公司的噩梦 67 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,219 尤其是在电信这个竞争已经白热化的行业里 68 00:02:51,219 --> 00:02:53,280 谁能把流失率降得更低 69 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:54,900 谁就赢了一大半儿 70 00:02:59,019 --> 00:03:01,258 但是咱们一开始就说了 71 00:03:01,258 --> 00:03:03,378 这是一个关于取舍的故事 72 00:03:03,378 --> 00:03:05,009 有得必有失嘛 73 00:03:05,009 --> 00:03:06,389 为了留住客户 74 00:03:06,389 --> 00:03:09,269 ATNT也必须付出相应的代价 75 00:03:09,269 --> 00:03:13,008 你想啊要让用户买你的全家桶套餐 76 00:03:13,008 --> 00:03:14,969 你总得给点甜头吧 77 00:03:14,969 --> 00:03:16,849 这个甜头就是折扣 78 00:03:16,849 --> 00:03:20,349 而折扣就直接导致了收入上的压力 79 00:03:20,349 --> 00:03:21,789 也就是报告里说的 80 00:03:21,789 --> 00:03:23,729 这是做生意的成本 81 00:03:23,729 --> 00:03:25,409 好代价来了 82 00:03:25,409 --> 00:03:26,770 你看这张图 83 00:03:26,770 --> 00:03:29,310 这就是每用户平均收入 84 00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,039 也就是ARPU这条线 85 00:03:32,039 --> 00:03:34,269 你看基本上是平的 86 00:03:34,269 --> 00:03:35,468 这意味着什么 87 00:03:35,468 --> 00:03:37,688 意味着虽然客户多了 88 00:03:37,688 --> 00:03:40,968 但ATNT从单个客户身上赚的钱 89 00:03:40,968 --> 00:03:42,319 其实没怎么涨 90 00:03:42,319 --> 00:03:45,349 但是凡事都有两面性 91 00:03:45,349 --> 00:03:47,110 咱们再来看另一张图 92 00:03:47,110 --> 00:03:50,930 这就是他们用收入增长放缓换来的东西 93 00:03:50,930 --> 00:03:53,629 客户流失率确实降低了 94 00:03:53,629 --> 00:03:54,930 虽然还有波动 95 00:03:54,930 --> 00:03:57,590 但这个季度的改善很明显 96 00:03:57,590 --> 00:04:01,729 这说明被捆绑的客户忠诚度真的更高 97 00:04:01,729 --> 00:04:02,909 所以你看 98 00:04:02,909 --> 00:04:06,819 这就是ATNT管理层口中的数学问题 99 00:04:06,819 --> 00:04:09,099 他们心里那笔账算得很清楚 100 00:04:09,099 --> 00:04:12,180 用稍微低一点的单价换来更多 101 00:04:12,180 --> 00:04:14,159 更稳定的长期客户 102 00:04:14,159 --> 00:04:15,379 从长远来看 103 00:04:15,379 --> 00:04:17,399 这笔买卖是划算的 104 00:04:17,399 --> 00:04:18,180 好了 105 00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:19,360 分析了这么多 106 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:20,540 又是增长 107 00:04:20,540 --> 00:04:21,819 又是取舍的 108 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,279 最后到底是怎么看的呢 109 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,399 结论是他们看好你 110 00:04:29,399 --> 00:04:31,459 看评级市跑赢大盘 111 00:04:31,459 --> 00:04:33,240 目标价30美元 112 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,899 意思就是说他们觉得ATNT的股票 113 00:04:35,899 --> 00:04:38,408 未来会比市场整体表现要好 114 00:04:38,408 --> 00:04:39,149 当然了 115 00:04:39,149 --> 00:04:42,228 这个判断是建立在一些关键假设上的 116 00:04:42,228 --> 00:04:45,329 比如公司能保持稳定的长期增长 117 00:04:45,329 --> 00:04:48,230 同时资本成本控制得也不错 118 00:04:48,230 --> 00:04:49,209 当然了 119 00:04:49,209 --> 00:04:51,560 报告里也不是光说好话 120 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:53,959 分析师也提醒了这事儿吧 121 00:04:53,959 --> 00:04:55,480 还有几个坑得注意 122 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,240 比如说万一竞争对手不按套路出牌 123 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,069 搞恶性价格战怎么办 124 00:05:00,069 --> 00:05:02,870 又或者这个捆绑策略的效果没想象中好 125 00:05:02,870 --> 00:05:03,329 怎么办 126 00:05:03,329 --> 00:05:05,589 这些都是潜在的风险 127 00:05:05,589 --> 00:05:07,759 所以故事讲到这儿 128 00:05:07,759 --> 00:05:10,180 一个大大的问号就留给了我们 129 00:05:10,180 --> 00:05:11,509 也留给了市场 130 00:05:11,509 --> 00:05:13,069 ATNT的这把豪赌 131 00:05:13,069 --> 00:05:16,089 将自己的未来都压在了捆绑上 132 00:05:16,089 --> 00:05:17,050 那么在今天 133 00:05:17,050 --> 00:05:20,009 这个竞争激烈到白热化的电信战场上 134 00:05:20,009 --> 00:05:23,750 光靠把客户锁住就真的能赢到最后吗 135 00:05:23,750 --> 00:05:26,399 这个问题我们得拭目以待了
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