美股：加息等于熊市吗？【2026-05-28】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年5月28号星期四

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标普指数今天上涨43.27点

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涨幅0.58%

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天天就是创新高

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美股投资者教育啊

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搞得太少了

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总是上涨

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大家都得不到真正的教育

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而且只要持股就能天天赚钱

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对学习技术也不利

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买入指数ETF就赚钱了

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完全没有学习高深的技术理论

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也没机会在股市里得到锤炼啊

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目前标普指数正在上升阶段

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无重大利空袭击的话

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可能就是沿着5日均线继续上涨

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纳指今天上涨242.74点

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涨幅0.91%

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也创历史新高

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我现在忽然想起来几年前就有恐高一词儿

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说现在纳指1万3好高啊

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有恐高症

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现在回头一看

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当时可真是低

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可见高和低是相对的

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如果股市崩了

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回到2万点以下

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那现在就是高还没有发生的事情呀

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不必过于担忧

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技术上顺着趋势看涨

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做多比较不会空仓踏空

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虽然股神和大空头都高调看空

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一个留4000亿现金在手

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另一个做空半导体

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历史上他们确实也成功赌对了暴跌行情

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但是现在没有人相信会暴跌

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金融大鳄一点办法也没有

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今天轮到美国方面传出

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美伊已就停火60天达成了谅解备忘录

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和伊朗版本的谅解备忘录

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不同的是

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美国版本说两国要启动核计划谈判

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这份协议的具体内容也不是非常清晰

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根据市面上的公开信息来看

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在为期60天内

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霍尔木兹海峡将不受限制

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没有通行费

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也不会有安全上的骚扰

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伊朗必须在30天内清除所有水雷

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美国的海上封锁也将解除

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对伊朗的部分制裁给予豁免

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允许伊朗自由出售石油

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核心的一条是谅解备忘录

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里面将包含伊朗不发展核武器的承诺

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在60天谈判期内

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首要谈判议题将是如何处理伊朗的高浓缩铀

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以及如何应对伊朗的铀浓缩活动

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美国媒体报道称

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此谅解备忘录正在等待总统签字

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但是今天轮到伊朗否认这个事儿啦

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霍尔木兹海峡和核协议两张王牌

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伊朗轻易不会拱手相让的

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虽然开战的双方释放了不同的烟雾弹

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市场预测

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今年达成核协议的概率

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大约是50%到60%之间

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本次的停火框架可能不包括核协议

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预测市场对本月底达成核协议的概率

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只给出了20%

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伊朗战争的利空基本出境

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目前来看

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标普指数已经远超战争初期的水平

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不断创出新高

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每次谈判和海峡通航的希望都打击了油价

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提升了美股指数

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油价或许有可能在事件驱动中见顶

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布伦特原油在100美元上下宽幅震荡

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未来如果跌破90美元

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将形成标准的多重顶

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目前布油大约是在94美元左右

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离破位仅四美元的距离

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只要一个消息推动

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就足以改变原由的方向

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而油价如果维持高位甚至继续上涨的话

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通胀大概率反弹

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如果油价见顶回落

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则通胀风险就没有那么高了

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目前美国的利率降息希望不大

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加息倒是逐渐形成概率

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主要原因是通胀略有回升

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今天美国发布了PCE指数

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4月份个人消费支出价格指数

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同比上涨3.8%

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核心PCE同比上涨3.3%

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高于美联储2%的目标

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而且在柱状图上看到了

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整体PCE同比增速的显著回升

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这样的图形趋势并不是太理想

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如果剔除食品和能源来看核心PCEE

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那么环比增长0.4%

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仍然处于一年内相对较高的水平

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这是公布的实际通胀数值

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在战争油价上涨推动下

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美国的通胀回升了

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克利夫兰联储对PCE的实时预测显示

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5月份整体PCE环比增速是0.4%

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核心PCE的环比增长是0.27%

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全年同比增长3.33%

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官方对5月PCE的预测虽然没有特别的恶化

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但仍然超过2%目标

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不少预测

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美联储在这种情况下很难有降息的空间啦

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高盛首席运营官正在警告通胀风险

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认为通胀是经济面临的最大单一风险因素

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目前交易员预计

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美联储今年再次加息的概率为50.5%

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美联储加息也不至于抑制经济增长

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因为人工智能大规模建设

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经济增长不会被加息所限制

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加息控制通胀还不会影响GDP

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那美联储在平衡两大政策目标时

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加息的倾向就有可能逐渐形成

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未来议息会议声明

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不要写有政策宽松倾向的字眼

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他说

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宽松的政策倾向已经不再符合

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现代的经济前景和风险的平衡

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如果通胀没有缓解

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那就有可能要加息了

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纽约联储的威廉姆斯还好一点儿

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说现在货币政策处于正确位置

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短期通胀居高不下

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但压力将在今年晚一些时候缓解

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声称要放松宽松倾向的人比较多

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政策面转向加息的概率上升了

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在6月中旬即将召开的FOMC会议中

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市场预测

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美联储按兵不动的概率为98.9%

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但是有1.1%的小概率会加息

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25个基点

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虽然主流财经媒体文章中认为

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今年加息一次的概率高达50.5%

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但是在芝加哥期权预测工具中

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2026年剩余五次议息会议均保持利率不变

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是中等概率事件

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今年加息一次的概率只有37.7%

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即使只有低于50%的概率

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市场也算是在对加息进行定价

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而降息根本没有概率啊

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这样的情况下

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美股投资者就要研究加息是不是等于熊市

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加息不完全等于熊市

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历史上有多次加息期间

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股市还上涨了

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在过去七轮加息周期中

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标普指数有六次取得正收益

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但加息前的预期阶段

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指数提前就反映了市场提前定价加息的概率

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导致加息前3~6个月股市承压下跌

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比较近的例子就是2022年

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2022年

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标普指数跌了大半年

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在2022年的下半年

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美联储开始暴利加息

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但是股市在1月就见顶

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开始跌到了美联储真正加息时

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指数反而很快就见底回升

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走出另一轮大牛市了

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当然2022年之后的牛市

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除了加息落地

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还有AI行情启动的加持

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有时单一因素还说明不了全部的问题

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美股不会输给战争

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也不会屈服于加息

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最终都是上涨

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但战争和加息之前和初期

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市场都是比较慌乱的好

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那目前美元利率加息预期卷土重来

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会不会重创股市呢

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我认为这次加息预期暂时较为温和

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具体还要看通胀率是不是飙升

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如果通胀突飞猛进

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那么加息幅度大

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科技股

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成长股都会面临重大压力

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但如果只是温和的通胀

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加息一次就停

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那并没有什么大的问题

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甚至啊加息一次都会被当做是利好

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因为加完了就是利空

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出境

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加息是不是噩梦

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全看加多少

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2022年是从零利率开始往上加的

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这次呢是从3.5开始加的

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上方加息空间是不一样大的

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如果美国的房租不暴涨

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油价稳住

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加息空间还是有限

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股市就不至于步入熊市

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高通这两天大涨大跌

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所以讲一下高通高通货在买入后套了好一阵子

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现在倒是盈利有40%了

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以前下跌是因为它与AI核心热点

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关联度不是非常高

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与手机关系大

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存储涨价

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投资人说

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那会导致手机涨价

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一旦销量不好

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手机里面的基带芯片的销量就会有压力

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高通还有一支悬在头上的剑

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就是苹果要自研芯片替代高通的基带

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明后年要是真这么干了

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对高通是一个灰心奴事件

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但高通好像也意识到这一点

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在机器人和AI方面也在抓紧布局

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想要摆脱依赖手机的市场形象

223
00:09:35,799 --> 00:09:40,059
最近高通与字节跳动达成AI供货协议

224
00:09:40,059 --> 00:09:43,009
业务重心向数据中心转移

225
00:09:43,009 --> 00:09:45,450
高通早前与沙特合作

226
00:09:45,450 --> 00:09:49,649
在利雅德AI数据中心产能是200兆瓦

227
00:09:49,649 --> 00:09:52,159
这是高通首个AI项目

228
00:09:52,159 --> 00:09:56,139
目前进度是硬件交付与工程落地阶段

229
00:09:56,139 --> 00:10:01,220
高通提供的芯片是AI200和AI250以及机架

230
00:10:01,220 --> 00:10:04,440
那么沙特和字节两个项目下来

231
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,590
高通也算是AI定制芯片概念股了

232
00:10:07,590 --> 00:10:09,429
股价突然翻倍后

233
00:10:09,429 --> 00:10:11,259
目前大幅震荡

234
00:10:11,259 --> 00:10:14,059
它是半导体板块表现最差之一

235
00:10:14,059 --> 00:10:16,240
有涨也是补涨

236
00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,460
我认为高通估值不高

237
00:10:18,460 --> 00:10:20,070
又有AI概念

238
00:10:20,070 --> 00:10:23,110
只要大盘主流的AI行情继续推进

239
00:10:23,110 --> 00:10:25,818
高通还是有可能会继续上涨

240
00:10:25,818 --> 00:10:28,859
不过这只股好像喜欢逗我玩啊

241
00:10:28,859 --> 00:10:32,339
我一说要卖出它就马上翻倍的涨

242
00:10:32,339 --> 00:10:34,099
我一说继续持有

243
00:10:34,099 --> 00:10:35,629
他就大洗盘

244
00:10:35,629 --> 00:10:38,149
好像就是想把我给洗出去

245
00:10:38,509 --> 00:10:39,429
几个星期前

246
00:10:39,429 --> 00:10:40,470
有一个观众说

247
00:10:40,470 --> 00:10:41,929
你赶紧卖了吧

248
00:10:41,929 --> 00:10:43,940
卖了股价暴涨

249
00:10:44,059 --> 00:10:46,159
主力大几百亿的资金实力

250
00:10:46,159 --> 00:10:50,259
就盯着我的60股万把块钱不放是吧

251
00:10:50,700 --> 00:10:53,879
snowflake财报后大涨36%

252
00:10:53,879 --> 00:10:57,340
snow1季度营收同比增长33%

253
00:10:57,340 --> 00:10:58,840
达13.9亿

254
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,120
超预期

255
00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,139
每股收益39美分

256
00:11:02,139 --> 00:11:04,080
同比增长62%

257
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,720
宣布收购人工智能初创公司NETA

258
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,360
这家公司不自己建立数据中心

259
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,000
而是向三大云服务商批发来

260
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:16,279
然后当二道贩子卖算力给客户

261
00:11:16,279 --> 00:11:18,519
它与set软件股不同

262
00:11:18,519 --> 00:11:20,639
用的是按使用量付费

263
00:11:20,639 --> 00:11:25,159
和当前流行的使用token买算力的生意模式相同

264
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,159
今天大涨这么多啊

265
00:11:27,159 --> 00:11:29,220
主要是业绩增速厉害

266
00:11:29,220 --> 00:11:31,779
AI货币化迎来转折点

267
00:11:31,779 --> 00:11:33,460
正如黄仁勋所说

268
00:11:33,460 --> 00:11:36,019
现在token是新的大宗商品

269
00:11:36,019 --> 00:11:37,700
等同于生产力

270
00:11:37,700 --> 00:11:41,220
微软今天也象征性的涨了3.47%

271
00:11:41,220 --> 00:11:45,409
但图形还是在整理平台当中也没有突破

272
00:11:45,409 --> 00:11:47,690
只有突破了现在的平台

273
00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:49,809
股价高于436美元

274
00:11:49,809 --> 00:11:52,399
才有可能出现一轮上升波段

275
00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:56,960
不然涨一天跌两天的还是在横盘整理当中

276
00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,480
戴尔盘后大涨16%

277
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,318
原因是财报大超预期

278
00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:05,519
上季度营收438.4亿美元

279
00:12:05,519 --> 00:12:08,369
超过预期的354.3亿

280
00:12:08,369 --> 00:12:10,328
每股收益4.86

281
00:12:10,328 --> 00:12:12,940
大超预期的2.94美元

282
00:12:12,940 --> 00:12:16,220
人工智能服务器收入同比增长7%

283
00:12:16,220 --> 00:12:17,080
百五十七

284
00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:18,849
达到161亿

285
00:12:18,849 --> 00:12:22,730
预计全年人工智能收入将达到600亿美元

286
00:12:22,730 --> 00:12:27,750
这年头和人工智能相关的赚钱怎么都如此之快

287
00:12:27,750 --> 00:12:30,629
人工智能确实在积累泡沫

288
00:12:30,629 --> 00:12:32,110
泡沫不是坏事

289
00:12:32,110 --> 00:12:34,109
是会越吹越大

290
00:12:34,109 --> 00:12:38,089
今天我IBKR公开账户净值是22.3万

291
00:12:38,089 --> 00:12:39,369
涨了2000多

292
00:12:39,369 --> 00:12:41,549
好像还跑赢大盘了

293
00:12:41,549 --> 00:12:44,210
RADI涨到8.63%

294
00:12:44,210 --> 00:12:46,690
果然是轻易不能卖出股票啊

295
00:12:46,690 --> 00:12:48,649
卖啥啥上涨

296
00:12:48,649 --> 00:12:51,279
最后有个观众的问题是

297
00:12:51,279 --> 00:12:53,500
现在英伟达体重如牛

298
00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:54,919
涨也涨不动了

299
00:12:54,919 --> 00:12:56,519
要不要减低仓位

300
00:12:56,519 --> 00:13:00,339
拿钱去追space ace或者是热门股呢

301
00:13:00,578 --> 00:13:03,458
英伟达和谷歌都是超级大盘股

302
00:13:03,458 --> 00:13:05,318
5万亿上下的体量

303
00:13:05,318 --> 00:13:08,080
不可能像小盘股那样的身轻如燕

304
00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,620
但是好在他们比较稳

305
00:13:10,620 --> 00:13:13,100
如果他们出现30%的回调

306
00:13:13,100 --> 00:13:15,730
别的股票可能会跌了不少

307
00:13:16,009 --> 00:13:17,909
SPACEF上市在即

308
00:13:17,909 --> 00:13:20,159
也算是当前热门股票

309
00:13:20,159 --> 00:13:22,980
刚开始流通盘可能也就1000多亿

310
00:13:22,980 --> 00:13:24,328
会有炒作

311
00:13:24,328 --> 00:13:26,349
但是业绩不怎么样

312
00:13:26,349 --> 00:13:27,928
未来要拼命烧钱

313
00:13:27,928 --> 00:13:29,548
估值高得离谱

314
00:13:29,548 --> 00:13:31,849
如果长期投资SPACEX

315
00:13:31,849 --> 00:13:34,869
还是要耐心等待机会的好

316
00:13:34,869 --> 00:13:36,369
今天的节目就分享到这里

317
00:13:36,369 --> 00:13:37,308
感谢大家收看

318
00:13:37,308 --> 00:13:38,489
我们下期节目再见

319
00:13:38,489 --> 00:13:39,259
拜拜

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