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跌才是机会
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人们总是害怕市场下跌
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其实他们该怕的是上涨
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这话听起来像疯话
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但我活了99年
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见过十几次崩盘
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我可以告诉你
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真正让人破产的从来不是熊市
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而是牛市里的傲慢
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下跌会逼迫愚蠢的人成长
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而持续的上涨只会让聪明人变笨
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我年轻的时候也害怕下跌
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那是人性
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没什么好羞耻的
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但后来我明白一个残酷的真相
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市场不是用来让你舒服的
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它是用来测试你有多理性
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而绝大多数人在测试中不及格下跌是市场在说真话
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市场崩盘时
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人性也跟着崩盘
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我在1973年经历过一场让人终身难忘的股灾
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那一年市场像疯了一样往下掉
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每天打开报纸都是更惨的数字
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我记得有位邻居是位体面的银行经理
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穿着笔挺的西装
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开着新车
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家里刚装修完
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股灾发生后
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他每天晚上失眠
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白天打电话给券商
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问该不该卖
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他最后卖在最低点
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然后花了10年才恢复元气
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他不是笨
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他只是不理性
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市场下跌时
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人们会做三件蠢事
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第一恐慌性抛售
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他以为自己在止损
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其实只是在打折卖掉未来
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第二责怪别人
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反正不是自己的错
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第三发誓再也不碰股市
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这是最愚蠢的一种
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因为他们把教训变成了创伤
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而不是智慧
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我那时候什么都没做
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不是因为我勇敢
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而是因为我知道恐慌是会传染的
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而我不想被感染
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市场下跌不是灾难
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是现实在给你上课
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他在告诉你
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那些你以为稳赚不赔的东西其实没那么稳
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那些你追捧的热门股其实只是泡沫
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那些你羡慕的邻居其实只是在借钱装富
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下跌是市场的诚实时刻
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而大多数人受不了诚实
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真正的赢家在等什么
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巴菲特常说一句话
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别人贪婪时我恐惧
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别人恐惧时我贪婪
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这话人人会背
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但没几个人真的做得到
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为什么
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因为当市场下跌三成
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你的邻居在哭
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你的朋友在骂媒体
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在喊世界末日时
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你要有胆子说
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太好了
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打折了
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这需要的不是勇气
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而是理性的冷血
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我和巴菲特这辈子最大的优势不是我们比别人聪明
76
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而是我们在别人失去理智时还能保持清醒
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1973年
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当所有人都在卖时
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我们在买
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不是因为我们知道市场会反弹
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我们不知道
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但我们知道
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好公司不会因为股价下跌就变坏
84
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可口可乐还是那个可口可乐
85
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喜诗糖果还是那个喜事
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糖果变的只是价格
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不是价值
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而价格终究会回归到价值
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这不是信仰
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这是算术
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真正的赢家
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不是那些能预测市场的人
93
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而是那些在市场崩溃时
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还有现金
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有理智
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有耐心的人
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他们等的不是反弹
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他们等的是别人的恐慌
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因为恐慌会制造机会
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而机会只属于准备好的人
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为什么大多数人在下跌中输掉一切
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因为他们从来没有准备
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我见过太多人
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在牛市里像天才
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在熊市里像乞丐
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他们在市场好的时候
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觉得自己无所不能
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加杠杆借钱追高
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以为财富会永远增长
110
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结果市场一转
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他们就被抹平了
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为什么
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因为他们从来没有为下跌做准备
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他们以为市场一直会涨
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或者就算跌也不会跌到自己头上
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这种想法不叫乐观
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叫妄想
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我在大萧条后期长大那段日子让我学会一件事
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好日子不会永远持续
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繁荣会结束
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泡沫会破裂
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人心会崩溃
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这不是悲观
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这是历史
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每一代人都以为这次不一样
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结果每次都一样
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所以我从不预测市场什么时候会跌
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我只是默认它一定会跌
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然后提前准备准备什么
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第一现金没有现金
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你在崩盘时只能当观众或者更惨
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当受害者有现金
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你才有资格当买家
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第二冷静的脑袋
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情绪是下跌时最昂贵的奢侈品
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你恐慌就会做蠢事
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你一做蠢事就会亏更多
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第三不借钱加杠杆
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市场在顺风时会让你觉得自己是天才
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在逆风时会让你死无全尸
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我这辈子从不借钱投资
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因为我知道杠杆不是工具
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是炸药
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恐慌是富人的提款机
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你知道市场崩盘时谁最开心吗
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那些有钱有耐心
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有纪律的人
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他们不是幸灾乐祸
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他们只是知道恐慌是财富转移的时刻
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钱不会消失
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他只是从急躁的人手中转移到冷静的人手中
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从情绪化的人手中转移到理性的人手中
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从借钱的人手中转移到有现金的人手中
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市场下跌不是灾难
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而洗牌的规则很简单
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谁先慌谁先输
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我在1973年
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看着无数人恐慌性抛售
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他们卖的不是股票
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是未来的财富
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而我们买的不是股票
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是别人的恐慌
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这听起来冷血
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但这就是现实
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市场不是慈善机构
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他不会同情弱者
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他只会奖励那些能在混乱中保持清醒的人
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你想成为那种人吗
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那就别怕下跌
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去怕自己在下跌时失去理智
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下跌时该做什么
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第一件事什么都不做
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听起来很蠢对吧
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但我告诉你
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市场下跌时最聪明的动作往往是什么都不做
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不看新闻
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不打电话给券商
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不跟朋友讨论
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不调整持股
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就这样
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什么都不做
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为什么
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因为行动需要理由
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而在恐慌中
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你找到的每一个理由都是错的
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你以为你在止损
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其实你在卖在低点
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你以为你在调整
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其实你在追逐情绪
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你以为你在保护资产
191
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其实你在摧毁未来
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我和巴菲特这辈子最成功的投资有一半是因为我们什么都没做
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我们在1973年什么都没做
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在1987年什么都没做
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在2008年还是什么都没做
196
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不是因为我们懒
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而是因为我们知道市场下跌时
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行动的代价通常比不动更高
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你持有的是好公司吗
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是的话
201
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那就继续持有好公司
202
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不会因为股价下跌就变了
203
00:07:54,699 --> 00:07:57,918
可口可乐在1973年还是在卖汽水
204
00:07:57,918 --> 00:08:01,079
在2008年也还是在卖汽水编的
205
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只是价格
206
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不是生意
207
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而生意好的公司价格终究会回来
208
00:08:06,588 --> 00:08:07,949
这不是信仰
209
00:08:07,949 --> 00:08:09,418
这是逻辑
210
00:08:09,418 --> 00:08:10,499
第二件事
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检查你的组合
212
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市场下跌时
213
00:08:13,858 --> 00:08:17,279
唯一该做的事是问自己一个问题
214
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我持有的这些公司10年后还会存在吗
215
00:08:21,879 --> 00:08:24,139
如果答案是肯定的
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那就别动
217
00:08:25,428 --> 00:08:27,028
如果答案是不确定
218
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那代表你一开始就买错了
219
00:08:29,300 --> 00:08:31,540
而如果你一开始就买错了
220
00:08:31,540 --> 00:08:34,919
那下跌只是让你更早看清现实
221
00:08:34,919 --> 00:08:38,220
我从不投资我不理解的东西
222
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因为我知道当市场下跌时
223
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不理解会变成恐慌
224
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而恐慌会让你做出最糟糕的决定
225
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你买科技股
226
00:08:48,690 --> 00:08:50,318
但你不懂科技
227
00:08:50,318 --> 00:08:51,698
你买医疗股
228
00:08:51,698 --> 00:08:53,230
但你不懂医学
229
00:08:53,230 --> 00:08:54,789
你买加密货币
230
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但你连区块链都说不清楚
231
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那你不是在投资
232
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你只是在赌博
233
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而赌博的人在市场下跌时会输得最惨
234
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市场下跌是一面镜子
235
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它会找出你投资组合里的所有愚蠢
236
00:09:13,899 --> 00:09:16,690
那些你因为涨得快而追的标的
237
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那些你根本不懂
238
00:09:18,169 --> 00:09:21,669
但只是觉得应该会赚的东西下跌
239
00:09:21,669 --> 00:09:24,059
会让这些错误全部现形
240
00:09:24,059 --> 00:09:27,120
而如果你发现自己持有的是垃圾
241
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:28,440
那就承认吧
242
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:29,440
卖掉它
243
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,669
然后发誓下次别再犯同样的错
244
00:09:32,669 --> 00:09:35,309
但如果你持有的是好公司
245
00:09:35,309 --> 00:09:36,850
那就什么都别做
246
00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:38,669
让时间帮你工作
247
00:09:38,669 --> 00:09:40,769
让市场自己修正
248
00:09:40,769 --> 00:09:42,190
第三件事
249
00:09:42,190 --> 00:09:44,950
如果有现金就买金
250
00:09:44,950 --> 00:09:48,990
市场下跌三成是灾难还是机会
251
00:09:48,990 --> 00:09:51,500
这取决于你有没有现金
252
00:09:51,500 --> 00:09:54,259
没现金的人下跌是噩梦
253
00:09:54,259 --> 00:09:57,269
有现金的人下跌是圣诞节
254
00:09:57,269 --> 00:10:00,610
我和巴菲特在每一次崩盘时都在买
255
00:10:00,610 --> 00:10:02,450
不是因为我们勇敢
256
00:10:02,450 --> 00:10:04,470
而是因为我们有准备
257
00:10:04,470 --> 00:10:06,370
我们一直保留现金
258
00:10:06,370 --> 00:10:07,909
不是为了浪费
259
00:10:07,909 --> 00:10:09,529
而是为了等待
260
00:10:09,529 --> 00:10:10,509
等什么
261
00:10:10,509 --> 00:10:12,190
等别人恐慌
262
00:10:12,190 --> 00:10:15,590
因为恐慌会让好公司占便宜
263
00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:18,078
而便宜是我们最爱的价格
264
00:10:18,078 --> 00:10:19,719
但这里有个前提
265
00:10:19,719 --> 00:10:22,158
你得知道什么是好公司
266
00:10:22,158 --> 00:10:23,730
如果你不知道
267
00:10:23,730 --> 00:10:25,409
那就算股价打折
268
00:10:25,409 --> 00:10:26,750
你也不该乱买
269
00:10:26,750 --> 00:10:30,169
盲目抄底和盲目追高一样愚蠢
270
00:10:30,169 --> 00:10:33,700
真正的买进时机不是市场跌了多少
271
00:10:33,700 --> 00:10:35,480
而是你看懂了什么
272
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,740
如果你看懂一家公司
273
00:10:37,740 --> 00:10:39,460
知道它的价值
274
00:10:39,460 --> 00:10:41,340
知道它的护城河
275
00:10:41,340 --> 00:10:44,139
知道他10年后还会更强
276
00:10:44,139 --> 00:10:47,980
那么当他因为市场恐慌而被低估时
277
00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:49,220
你就该买
278
00:10:49,220 --> 00:10:50,539
这不是赌博
279
00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:51,899
这是算数
280
00:10:51,899 --> 00:10:55,549
我在1973年买进的公司很多
281
00:10:55,549 --> 00:10:57,549
到今天还在我的组合里
282
00:10:57,549 --> 00:10:59,409
不是因为我运气好
283
00:10:59,409 --> 00:11:01,549
而是因为我买的是价值
284
00:11:01,549 --> 00:11:02,799
不是价格
285
00:11:02,799 --> 00:11:04,240
价格会波动
286
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,679
但价值不会
287
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:09,950
而时间终究会让价值回到它该有的位置
288
00:11:09,950 --> 00:11:13,179
下跌是对人性的终极测试
289
00:11:13,179 --> 00:11:14,740
你以为你理性
290
00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:17,320
其实你只是没被测试
291
00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,240
大多数人都觉得自己很理性
292
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,519
直到市场下跌三成
293
00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:26,809
那时候你才会发现理性是多么脆弱的东西
294
00:11:26,809 --> 00:11:30,570
我见过无数聪明人在平时侃侃而谈
295
00:11:30,570 --> 00:11:33,149
说起投资哲学头头是道
296
00:11:33,149 --> 00:11:34,629
但市场一崩
297
00:11:34,629 --> 00:11:36,169
他们比谁都慌
298
00:11:36,169 --> 00:11:37,929
他们不是不懂道理
299
00:11:37,929 --> 00:11:40,580
他们只是低估了情绪的力量
300
00:11:40,580 --> 00:11:42,580
理性不是知识
301
00:11:42,580 --> 00:11:43,799
是纪律
302
00:11:43,799 --> 00:11:46,000
你可以读100本投资书
303
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,409
背1000句巴菲特名言
304
00:11:48,409 --> 00:11:51,649
但如果你在市场下跌时做不到冷静
305
00:11:51,649 --> 00:11:54,289
那些知识一点用都没有
306
00:11:54,289 --> 00:11:57,970
市场下跌是对人性的终极测试
307
00:11:57,970 --> 00:11:59,870
他测试你的耐心
308
00:11:59,870 --> 00:12:01,049
你的纪律
309
00:12:01,049 --> 00:12:02,409
你的自制力
310
00:12:02,409 --> 00:12:04,500
还有你对自己的了解
311
00:12:04,500 --> 00:12:07,659
你以为自己能承受三成亏损吗
312
00:12:07,659 --> 00:12:10,129
你以为自己不会恐慌吗
313
00:12:10,129 --> 00:12:14,070
你以为自己能在所有人都卖时不动吗
314
00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:18,230
这些问题只有在真正下跌时才有答案
315
00:12:18,230 --> 00:12:20,809
而大多数人的答案是不行
316
00:12:20,809 --> 00:12:23,679
恐惧比贪婪更难克服
317
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:24,740
人们常说
318
00:12:24,740 --> 00:12:26,740
贪婪是投资的大忌
319
00:12:26,740 --> 00:12:27,840
我不同意
320
00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,779
贪婪还能让你赚钱
321
00:12:29,779 --> 00:12:31,370
虽然不会长久
322
00:12:31,370 --> 00:12:34,149
但恐惧只会让你亏钱
323
00:12:34,149 --> 00:12:35,669
市场上涨时
324
00:12:35,669 --> 00:12:37,529
贪婪会让你买贵
325
00:12:37,529 --> 00:12:38,929
市场下跌时
326
00:12:38,929 --> 00:12:40,870
恐惧会让你贱卖
327
00:12:40,870 --> 00:12:43,629
而贱卖比买贵更致命
328
00:12:43,629 --> 00:12:48,169
因为买贵还能等贱卖就再也回不来了
329
00:12:48,169 --> 00:12:52,070
我见过太多人在市场崩盘时卖掉好公司
330
00:12:52,070 --> 00:12:54,029
然后花10年后悔
331
00:12:54,029 --> 00:12:55,250
他们不是不懂
332
00:12:55,250 --> 00:12:56,460
那是好公司
333
00:12:56,460 --> 00:12:58,679
他们只是受不了恐惧
334
00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,679
恐惧是一种病毒
335
00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:02,940
它会在人群中传播
336
00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:07,200
当你的邻居在卖你的朋友在卖媒体
337
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,000
在喊世界末日时
338
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,049
你很难不受影响
339
00:13:11,049 --> 00:13:13,529
这时候你需要的不是知识
340
00:13:13,529 --> 00:13:14,909
而是隔离
341
00:13:14,909 --> 00:13:16,330
隔离自己
342
00:13:16,330 --> 00:13:17,889
远离噪音
343
00:13:17,889 --> 00:13:19,509
远离恐慌
344
00:13:19,509 --> 00:13:23,009
远离那些让你失去理智的人
345
00:13:23,009 --> 00:13:25,529
我在每一次崩盘时都这么做
346
00:13:25,529 --> 00:13:26,830
我关掉新闻
347
00:13:26,830 --> 00:13:27,889
不接电话
348
00:13:27,889 --> 00:13:29,089
不看股价
349
00:13:29,089 --> 00:13:30,849
不是因为我不在乎
350
00:13:30,849 --> 00:13:34,028
而是因为我知道恐慌是会传染的
351
00:13:34,028 --> 00:13:35,759
而我不想被感染
352
00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:38,529
市场下跌会揭露你是谁
353
00:13:38,529 --> 00:13:41,210
你以为自己是长期投资者
354
00:13:41,210 --> 00:13:43,289
市场下跌会告诉你
355
00:13:43,289 --> 00:13:45,840
你其实只是短期赌徒
356
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,899
你以为自己很理性
357
00:13:47,899 --> 00:13:49,940
市场下跌会告诉你
358
00:13:49,940 --> 00:13:51,879
你其实很情绪化
359
00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:54,279
你以为自己能承受风险
360
00:13:54,279 --> 00:13:56,179
市场下跌会告诉你
361
00:13:56,179 --> 00:13:57,799
你其实承受不了
362
00:13:57,799 --> 00:13:59,039
这不是羞辱
363
00:13:59,039 --> 00:14:00,259
这是现实
364
00:14:00,259 --> 00:14:02,679
大多数人不了解自己
365
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:04,419
直到市场下跌
366
00:14:04,419 --> 00:14:06,279
而一旦他们了解了
367
00:14:06,279 --> 00:14:08,019
通常已经来不及了
368
00:14:08,019 --> 00:14:10,960
我年轻时也高估过自己
369
00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,659
我以为我能承受任何波动
370
00:14:13,659 --> 00:14:16,120
结果第一次真正的崩盘
371
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,679
我才发现自己也会害怕
372
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,639
但我学会了一件事
373
00:14:20,639 --> 00:14:21,980
承认恐惧
374
00:14:21,980 --> 00:14:24,529
但不让恐惧主导决策
375
00:14:24,529 --> 00:14:28,210
这是理性和情绪之间最微妙的平衡
376
00:14:28,210 --> 00:14:30,049
你不可能没有情绪
377
00:14:30,049 --> 00:14:33,029
但你可以选择不被情绪操控
378
00:14:33,029 --> 00:14:37,850
而这种能力只能在一次又一次的下跌中锻炼出来
379
00:14:37,850 --> 00:14:39,759
真正的赢家怎么想
380
00:14:39,759 --> 00:14:41,240
他们不看价格
381
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:42,460
他们看价值
382
00:14:42,460 --> 00:14:43,860
市场下跌时
383
00:14:43,860 --> 00:14:46,710
大多数人盯着股价越看越慌
384
00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:49,110
但真正的赢家不看价格
385
00:14:49,110 --> 00:14:51,230
他们看的是公司本身
386
00:14:51,230 --> 00:14:53,710
可口可乐的股价跌了三成
387
00:14:53,710 --> 00:14:56,169
那可口可乐的生意有变差吗
388
00:14:56,169 --> 00:14:58,809
没有人们还是在喝汽水
389
00:14:58,809 --> 00:15:00,610
超市还是在进货
390
00:15:00,610 --> 00:15:02,480
公司还是在赚钱
391
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:03,899
变的只是市场
392
00:15:03,899 --> 00:15:04,539
情绪
393
00:15:04,539 --> 00:15:06,139
不是企业价值
394
00:15:06,139 --> 00:15:08,960
而情绪是最不可靠的东西
395
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,279
我和巴菲特从不根据股价做决定
396
00:15:12,279 --> 00:15:14,360
我们根据企业做决定
397
00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:15,740
如果企业好
398
00:15:15,740 --> 00:15:17,059
股价跌了
399
00:15:17,059 --> 00:15:18,460
那就是机会
400
00:15:18,460 --> 00:15:19,899
如果企业烂
401
00:15:19,899 --> 00:15:21,250
股价涨了
402
00:15:21,250 --> 00:15:22,549
那就是陷阱
403
00:15:22,549 --> 00:15:24,568
这个逻辑简单到可笑
404
00:15:24,568 --> 00:15:26,489
但绝大多数人做不到
405
00:15:26,489 --> 00:15:28,688
因为他们被价格绑架了
406
00:15:28,688 --> 00:15:31,208
他们每天打开手机看股价
407
00:15:31,208 --> 00:15:33,690
涨了开心跌了难过
408
00:15:33,690 --> 00:15:35,129
这不是投资
409
00:15:35,129 --> 00:15:36,840
这是赌博成瘾
410
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:40,759
真正的投资者应该能做到一个月不看股价
411
00:15:40,759 --> 00:15:42,179
如果你做不到
412
00:15:42,179 --> 00:15:44,120
那代表你买错了东西
413
00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,980
或者你根本不理解你买了什么
414
00:15:46,980 --> 00:15:48,849
每次市场下跌
415
00:15:48,849 --> 00:15:52,948
总有专家跳出来预测这次会跌到哪里
416
00:15:52,948 --> 00:15:54,589
什么时候会反弹
417
00:15:54,589 --> 00:15:56,828
现在该进场还是观望
418
00:15:56,828 --> 00:15:58,729
我从不听这些废话
419
00:15:58,729 --> 00:16:01,028
因为没有人能预测市场
420
00:16:01,028 --> 00:16:02,210
你可以猜
421
00:16:02,210 --> 00:16:04,090
但猜不等于知道
422
00:16:04,090 --> 00:16:06,590
而如果你根据猜测做决定
423
00:16:06,590 --> 00:16:08,649
那你只是在赌运气
424
00:16:08,649 --> 00:16:11,600
真正的赢家从不预测市场
425
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,220
他们准备自己
426
00:16:13,220 --> 00:16:14,799
他们准备现金
427
00:16:14,799 --> 00:16:16,080
准备心态
428
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,399
准备长期持有的觉悟
429
00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:21,120
他们不问市场什么时候会反弹
430
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,559
他们问我能不能撑到反弹那一天
431
00:16:24,559 --> 00:16:28,559
这两个问题的差距决定了你是赢家还是输家
432
00:16:28,559 --> 00:16:32,440
我在1973年不知道市场什么时候会反弹
433
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,220
但我知道我能撑得住
434
00:16:34,220 --> 00:16:35,679
因为我有现金
435
00:16:35,679 --> 00:16:37,019
有好公司
436
00:16:37,019 --> 00:16:38,059
有耐心
437
00:16:38,059 --> 00:16:39,279
也有纪律
438
00:16:39,279 --> 00:16:41,220
结果市场真的完蛋了
439
00:16:41,220 --> 00:16:44,080
而那些恐慌卖出的人再也没回来
440
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:45,320
这不是运气
441
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:46,578
这是准备
442
00:16:46,578 --> 00:16:49,158
他们懂得下跌是筛选机制
443
00:16:49,158 --> 00:16:51,359
市场下跌不是灾难
444
00:16:51,359 --> 00:16:53,159
是筛选他
445
00:16:53,159 --> 00:16:55,340
筛掉那些不该进来的人
446
00:16:55,340 --> 00:16:57,549
筛掉那些没准备的人
447
00:16:57,549 --> 00:17:00,029
筛掉那些只想快钱的人
448
00:17:00,029 --> 00:17:03,049
而留下来的才是真正的投资者
449
00:17:03,049 --> 00:17:04,098
我常说
450
00:17:04,098 --> 00:17:09,750
市场是把财富从急躁的人手中转移到有耐心的人手中
451
00:17:09,750 --> 00:17:12,230
而下跌就是这个转移过程
452
00:17:12,230 --> 00:17:13,809
你能活过下跌
453
00:17:13,809 --> 00:17:15,578
你就能享受上涨
454
00:17:15,578 --> 00:17:17,058
你活不过下跌
455
00:17:17,058 --> 00:17:18,979
那你本来就不该进来
456
00:17:18,979 --> 00:17:20,919
这话听起来残酷
457
00:17:20,919 --> 00:17:22,740
但这就是现实
458
00:17:22,740 --> 00:17:24,859
市场不是慈善机构
459
00:17:24,859 --> 00:17:26,799
他不会照顾弱者
460
00:17:26,799 --> 00:17:29,900
他只会奖励那些准备好的人
461
00:17:29,900 --> 00:17:31,160
不怕下跌
462
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:32,539
去怕你自己
463
00:17:32,539 --> 00:17:34,420
我活了99年
464
00:17:34,420 --> 00:17:36,740
经历过十几次崩盘
465
00:17:36,740 --> 00:17:38,799
每一次都有人问我
466
00:17:38,799 --> 00:17:40,140
你不怕吗
467
00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:41,429
我说怕
468
00:17:41,429 --> 00:17:44,359
但我不让恐惧做决定
469
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,380
市场下跌不可怕
470
00:17:46,380 --> 00:17:50,089
可怕的是你在下跌时失去理智
471
00:17:50,089 --> 00:17:52,589
可怕的是你没有准备
472
00:17:52,589 --> 00:17:54,509
却以为自己能承受
473
00:17:54,509 --> 00:17:58,650
可怕的是你追逐价格而忘了价值
474
00:17:58,650 --> 00:18:02,690
真正的赢家不是那些能预测市场的人
475
00:18:02,690 --> 00:18:09,059
而是那些在市场崩溃时还能保持理性耐心纪律的人
476
00:18:09,059 --> 00:18:10,640
他们不怕下跌
477
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,640
因为他们知道下跌只是过程
478
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:14,900
不是结局
479
00:18:14,900 --> 00:18:16,720
他们不追逐机会
480
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,599
因为他们知道机会会自己上门
481
00:18:19,599 --> 00:18:22,140
他们不需要证明自己聪明
482
00:18:22,140 --> 00:18:25,420
因为他们知道活得久比聪明更重要
483
00:18:25,420 --> 00:18:27,819
所以别怕市场下跌
484
00:18:27,819 --> 00:18:30,680
去怕你在下跌时做的蠢事
485
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,380
去怕你没有准备
486
00:18:32,380 --> 00:18:33,719
却还要硬闯
487
00:18:33,719 --> 00:18:35,618
去怕你失去理智
488
00:18:35,618 --> 00:18:37,318
然后输掉一切
489
00:18:37,318 --> 00:18:38,699
市场会跌
490
00:18:38,699 --> 00:18:40,118
这是确定的
491
00:18:40,118 --> 00:18:41,740
但你会不会输
492
00:18:41,740 --> 00:18:46,519
这取决于你自己理性耐心纪律
493
00:18:46,519 --> 00:18:50,720
这三样东西比任何投资技巧都重要
494
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,099
而这三样东西只能靠你自己锻炼
495
00:18:54,099 --> 00:18:57,180
记住下跌不是灾难
496
00:18:57,180 --> 00:18:58,200
是机会
497
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,400
但这个机会只属于准备好的人
498
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:02,779
你准备好了吗