【NaNa说美股】20260505每天都活在上涨的恐惧中！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月5号

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周二美股三大股指集体收涨

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标普与纳指都再创新高

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尽管伊朗昨天袭击了三船和阿联酋

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但是川普刻意淡化中东事态

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称停火协议并没有遭到明确的违反

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称

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美军在霍尔木兹海峡的自由计划属于防御性质

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只是临时任务

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并不寻求交战

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伊朗联合指挥官呢几点也否认近期袭击嗯

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阿联酋

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伊朗外长阿拉格奇还表示

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与美国的谈判正在取得进展

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国际油价的前一个交易日的大幅上涨之后呢

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今天回落

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既然双方都不想让局势升级放化

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降低事态

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那么市场就仍然相信

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这场战争正在朝着降级的方向发展

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但与此同时

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举机构监测显示

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在昨天交火之后

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伊朗革命卫队扩大了对霍尔木兹海峡的掌控

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现在船只被迫在更远的海域聚集

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据说全都跑去迪拜那边停着

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今天霍尔木兹海峡几乎空无一船

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难怪说波斯湾的局势恢复了相对平静哈

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都没有船了

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那当然平静了

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伊拉克的油呢迟迟运不出去

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被逼的没办法了

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一拍脑袋想出了一个绝妙好计

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就是给5月和桃

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从买家提供最高每桶33.4美元折扣

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但是买家的邮轮得穿越霍尔木兹海峡去提货

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如果买家接收了条款

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并且打钱了

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途中若是说嗯因为战事导致损失哈

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船被扣押了或被炸了

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那伊拉克呢概不退款

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就看哪些嗯

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胆子大的买家愿意赌这个风险了

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30年期美债收益率

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在5%的关键水平附近徘徊

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今年4月

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ICM服务业PMI从54回落到到53.6

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低于市场预期

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到53.7

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底价价格压力高企

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加剧了资产担忧

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的降息计划呢难以推进

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但是美债收益率今天却在数据出来之后回落

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森特还是很厉害的哈

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在背后压着这个收益率

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不让他突破5%

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英国30年期国债收益率都已经升到

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1998年以来最高水平了

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尽管美债收益率持续攀升

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中东局势又陷入了僵局

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市场广度也持续收窄

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但是强劲的财报季呢

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继续为投资者带来乐观情绪

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标普500指数

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今天几乎收复了上个周五所有失地

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有望进一步去挑战7300点整数关口

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纳指100走势更为强悍

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日K持续攀升

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已经突破了2万8000点

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科技板块现在处于单边狂热状态

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伦敦证券交易所集团数据指出

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得益于AI投资热潮

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票破百指数成份股公司

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预计第一季度利润同比增长28%

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这个是4月初财报季刚开始时候

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预期值的两倍多

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华尔街分析师表示

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美股市场的基本面非常稳固

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再加上地缘政治仍趋想降级的预期

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应该会让多头保持优势

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并且将下跌变成买入机会

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而这里需要注意分析师

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他说话很有技巧哈

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他并没有说这个市场不会下跌

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而是说可以将未来的下跌视为买入的机会

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所以无论后市涨了还是跌了

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他都没有说错

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个股方面的

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AMD盘后公布财报

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公司一季度营收102.5亿美元

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净利润3.8亿美元

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调整后每股收益为1.37美元

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都好

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于是残余期公司

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预计第二季度营收约一百十二亿美元

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上下浮动3亿美元

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高于预期的105.2亿美元

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这指引呢意味着

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营收将同比增长50.6%

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环比增长9.1%

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预计毛利率将会维持在56%左右

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数据都很强劲

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股价盘后先跌后涨

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贯通信巨头LITE盘后也交出了成绩

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但第三财季营收8亿美元

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同比增长90%

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调整后每股收益为2.37美元

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都略好于预期

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公司预计第四财季营收

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9.6亿到10.1亿美元之间

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预计调整后每股收益为2.85

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到3.05美元之间

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也都高于市场预期

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股价同样先跳水后拉回嗯

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所以这个真实走势还是得看明天盘中怎么走嗯

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英特尔股价今天呢大涨13%

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彭博报道称

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苹果正在考虑英特尔和三星合作

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为其设备生产处理器

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此前库克就曾提到过

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公司设备处理器面临供应短缺问题

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过去十多年

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苹果一直坚持自研芯片设计

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并且交由台积电代工

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最新的IPHONE和Mac呢也都用上了3NM制程

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但是随着AI数据中心的疯狂扩建

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以及能够本地运行AI模型的max需求超预期

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台积电的产能明显变得紧张

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订单多到接不过来了

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在这种情况之下

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苹果不得不开始考虑寻找第二供应来源

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苹果高管

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据说已经实地考察了三星在德州的新工厂

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不过目前呢与英特尔和三星的接触

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都还停留在早期阶段

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尚未形成实际订单

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更现实的一点是

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苹果对于非台积电的工艺始终心存顾虑

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最终是否真的引入新合作伙伴人士未知数

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对于英特尔来说呢

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如果能够拿下苹果订单

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将会是陈老板复兴代工业务的关键突破

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而对于三星而言

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尽管它的代工实力不及台积电

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但如果能够切入苹果供应链

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同样也是一个巨大的加分项

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存储概念股继续走高

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美光科技市值已经突破了7000亿美元

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市场情绪非常的亢奋

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已经在往那个万亿美元俱乐部去想象了

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SNDK这边也在加速锁定未来收入

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公司已经签下了五份长期供应协议

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预计覆盖2027财年

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超过13的NN出货量

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管理层甚至表示

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这个比例有望提升到50%以上

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仅仅三季度签署的三份合同

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最低合同额就达到了约420亿美元

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而且合同中还加入了抵押品和违约赔偿机制

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约束力明显要强于传统协议

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同时公司推进的HBF产线呢

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也在年内将会启动呃

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完整系统方案预计2027年上半年落地

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整体节奏非常的清晰

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现在美股市场很明显哈

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资金全被存储呃

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英特尔官通信这些板块给吸走了

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AI应用软件又不行了

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像super five

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帕兰提尔这样的热门软件股

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财报出来之后全都下跌

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公司第一季度营收31.7亿美元

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同比增长34%

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超预期

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商品交易总额达到了1007亿美元

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同比增长34.8%

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盈利与现金流也都很扎实

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嗯账上还有57亿美元的现金

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而且没有负债

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即便公司预计二季度增速会从34%

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放缓到25%到30%

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也基本符合市场预期

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但是股价今天还是被砸的很惨

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更多还是情绪与资金面的原因哈

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PUNTIL这边的情况也类似

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一季度营收增速创下公司上市以来新高

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净利润更是接近翻了四倍

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而且还上调了全年指引

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美国业务呢更是爆发式增长

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但是由于商业收入略低于预期

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就被市场抓住

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当做这个小瑕疵

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股价跌近7%

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现在美股市场的趋势大家也看得出来

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就是有点极端呃

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似乎认为在AI时代

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传统软件的长期价值会被彻底颠覆

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但是更合理的理解呢应该是

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软件并没有失去价值

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而是正在经历一轮换代升级呃

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旧的一些软件模式会被重构

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新的AI驱动型的软件正在接管舞台

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短期看是资金的选择问题

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长期看

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真正跑出来的还是那些

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能够把AI落地成实际产品和收入的公司

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但是当下市场不管这么多哈

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不分青红皂白

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一键卖出

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因为钱大量的全都跑去那个刚才所说的嗯

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存储光通信

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英特尔那边嘛

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加密货币概念股呢延续了强势

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市场情绪

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明显是被比特币和AI双重蓄势点燃

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CIF2第一季度营收降到3480万

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环比大幅下降41.7%

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不仅是参与期

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不过亏损的情况有所改善

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净亏损呢从上个季度的7.34亿美元

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大幅收窄到1.14亿美元

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主要是非现金支出和公允价值调整减少

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带来的账面修复

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公司正在加速从比特币挖矿业务

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转向AI数据中心

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这也成为当前资金更愿意讲的故事

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所以市场就选择暂时忽略眼前

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00:09:37,279 --> 00:09:38,679
这不太好看的业绩

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把焦点放在未来

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比如公司首例

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大约144亿美元的合同收入

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长达四到15年的基础租赁期限

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以及到2030年

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将算力规模扩展到4.2几瓦的规划

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与此同时

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00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,120
公司账上流动性依然充足

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截止一季度末

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公司持有大约42亿美元

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现金等价物

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总资产呢也从去年底的43亿美元

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增长到64亿美元

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主要由在建数据中心项目推动

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整体来看哈

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虽然公司短期盈利仍有压力

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但是随着数据中心主不上线

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未来收入增长的路径呢

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被市场认为是可见性比较强的呃

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这个时候情绪乐观哈

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00:10:20,860 --> 00:10:22,980
所以什么债务压力啦

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利息这个支出啦

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通通都先放在一边

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只看增长

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相比之下

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PAPO的财报呢就让投资者感到有些失望

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同比增长7%

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每股收益1.34美元

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也是算算超过预期哈

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但是核心用户数据偏弱

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活跃账户只增长1%

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单账户交易量还出现了下滑

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反映出竞争压力持续

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公司给出的指引也是偏谨慎

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预计二季度每股收益将为同比下降约9%

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同时维持全年止盈不变

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显示出管理层在新CEO带领之下呢

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更倾向于先稳住再说

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公司也在推进裁员和成本优化

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希望通过结构调整来扭转当前的增长瓶颈

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但是短期来看

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市场显然并不愿意为这种慢修复去买单

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煤炭的股价近期哎持续成压和那个微软

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还有英伟达一样哈

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最近都走的不太好

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估值已经被压到相对低位

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当前远期市盈率只有18倍

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接近3年来最低水平

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不仅明显低于其他大型科技公司

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与谷歌之间的估值差距呢

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也扩大到2022年以来最高水平

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问题并不在于meta的业务本身

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他的广告收入依然保持很强劲的增长

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但是投资者对小杂激进的AI投入产生了分歧

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今年公司计划投入高达1350亿美元

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用于资本开支

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同时长期债务呢也从约100亿美元

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迅速攀升到超过570亿美元

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在缺乏云业务支撑的情况下

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AI对广告业务的提升空间被认为存在天花板

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而在AI大模型竞争中

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维塔呢又没有明显的领先优势

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所以这些都让市场情绪变得摇摆不定

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股市就是这样子哈

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涨的时候总能找到理由继续看多

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跌的时候呢也总能够跳出一堆问题来放大

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社交媒体平台PRINTEREST

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一季度交出了还不错的成绩单

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营收10亿美元

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同比增长18%

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调整后每股收益27美分

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用户端呢也在持续扩张

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全球月活跃用户同比增长11%

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达到了6.3

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1亿创历史新高

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公司现金流表现也相当健康

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经营活动净现金流为3.28亿美元

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自由现金流为3.12亿美元

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这说明公司业务本身造血能力不错

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不过呢股价今天跳空高开之后

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遇到了三番这个缺口阻力回落

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盘初涨超17%

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收盘涨幅收窄到只有6.81%

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在这条半年线上止跌

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这种小票在2020年疫情期间

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辉煌了一把之后

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市场热度就持续下降

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资金免性不强

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盘子又小

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更多时候呢就是被短线资金啊

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拿来博弈一下情绪哈

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很难走出持续性的行情

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安森美半导体一季度营收同比增长5%

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其中AI数据中心业务

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环比增幅超过了30%

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调整后每股收益六四美分

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都好于预期

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公司预计二季度营收将在15.4亿

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到16.4亿美元之间

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调整后

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每股收益预计在65~77美分之间

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中间值也都高于市场的预期

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股价今天盘中多空拉锯

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最终小幅收涨

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这股价财报前已经涨了很多了

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几乎翻倍

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财报公布之后呢

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部分资金选择获利了结

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股价回落

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但是马上就有新的资金进场接盘

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金融数据服务工final

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财报出来之后

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股价大跌哈

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一季度营收46.8亿美元

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同比下降2%

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调整后每股收益1.79美元

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同比下滑16%

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但是都比市场的预期要好一点

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这些数据在此表明

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这公司目前仍处于转型阵痛期呃

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一边砸钱做转型

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短期成本就增加了嘛

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一边呢新业务还没有开始赚钱

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所以对短期盈利能力就造成了压力

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两大业务板块也不太给力

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商户解决方案收入呢基本持平

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金融服务收入还下滑了5%

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而且这两个板块的利润率也都在下降

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不过公司嘴还是挺硬的哈

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依然维持2026年指引

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每股收益八到8.3美元

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这要远高于市场预期的6.92美元

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00:14:47,990 --> 00:14:51,289
5月14号的投资者日将会是一个关键

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市场呢在等这个公司回答一个核心的问题

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就是现在呃转型砸的钱

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到底什么时候能够开始赚钱

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总结一句话就是短期数据很难看

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利润呢被转型所拖累

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长期还在画大饼

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说未来会更好

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市场目前不太买账

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那就看5月14号

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公司管理层到底能不能够舌灿莲花了呃

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据说这个公司现在被三哥们接管了哈

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这个呃三哥一般来说在画大饼上面嗯

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能力挺强的

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说不定啊

378
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能给这个嘴炮拉起来说不定

379
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但是看这股价年限走势太吓人了

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所谓的价值投资也不过如此嘛

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商业模式分分钟都可以被颠覆

382
00:15:34,860 --> 00:15:37,609
所以个股风险还是太大了

383
00:15:37,609 --> 00:15:40,849
呃咱们还是长投QQ保平安哈

384
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还有一些科技股

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比如像MSTR阿拉伯SMCI阿瑞斯塔

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盘后都出了财报

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股价涨跌不一

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我们明天再细说行

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那咱们明天见拜拜

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