BV17mdqB3EFk · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:00,400 Hello 2 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:00,920 大家好 3 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:02,000 欢迎回到阳光财经 4 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:02,740 我是SUNY 5 00:00:02,740 --> 00:00:05,939 今天是2026年4月16号星期四 6 00:00:05,939 --> 00:00:08,159 大盘连续反弹第12天 7 00:00:08,159 --> 00:00:10,999 标普指数今天又涨了18.33点 8 00:00:10,999 --> 00:00:12,779 涨幅0.26% 9 00:00:12,779 --> 00:00:15,660 盘中见历史高点7051 10 00:00:15,660 --> 00:00:18,100 收盘7041.28点 11 00:00:18,100 --> 00:00:19,809 再创历史新高 12 00:00:19,809 --> 00:00:21,870 从以前的经验判断 13 00:00:21,870 --> 00:00:25,649 标普指数在创出新高后会连续不断的新高 14 00:00:25,649 --> 00:00:27,859 继续上涨的概率很大 15 00:00:27,859 --> 00:00:31,199 如果说连续上涨会有喘口气儿的需要 16 00:00:31,199 --> 00:00:34,179 那有可能在市场出现不利消息的情况下 17 00:00:34,179 --> 00:00:35,170 调整一下 18 00:00:35,170 --> 00:00:37,810 只要不是重大系统性利空消息 19 00:00:37,810 --> 00:00:40,520 调整之后仍将继续上涨 20 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,859 纳斯达克指数今天上涨86.69点 21 00:00:43,859 --> 00:00:45,679 涨幅0.36% 22 00:00:45,679 --> 00:00:48,200 指数回到了2万4000点以上 23 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,000 收盘2万4102点七点 24 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:52,850 是历史收盘新高 25 00:00:52,850 --> 00:00:55,630 这意味着以科技股为重点的纳指 26 00:00:55,630 --> 00:00:57,490 有可能摆脱震荡区间 27 00:00:57,490 --> 00:00:59,869 重新回到牛市格局当中 28 00:00:59,869 --> 00:01:02,969 这个可能性将会在未来几天确认 29 00:01:02,969 --> 00:01:04,950 只要撑住2万4000点 30 00:01:04,950 --> 00:01:05,969 时间一长 31 00:01:05,969 --> 00:01:08,879 这个整数关就会变成支撑位 32 00:01:08,879 --> 00:01:12,260 今天我的公开账户亏了277 33 00:01:12,260 --> 00:01:14,019 跌0.14% 34 00:01:14,019 --> 00:01:17,000 重仓的特斯拉和谷歌略有下跌 35 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,129 因此今天没有收获 36 00:01:19,129 --> 00:01:22,349 持仓当中微软明显见底反弹 37 00:01:22,349 --> 00:01:24,329 有可能底部明确了 38 00:01:24,329 --> 00:01:26,170 高通也缓慢回升 39 00:01:26,170 --> 00:01:28,170 缩小了浮亏的金额 40 00:01:28,170 --> 00:01:31,590 今天美国公布了上周初请失业金人数 41 00:01:31,590 --> 00:01:33,230 经季节性调整后 42 00:01:33,230 --> 00:01:36,959 初次申请失业金的人数总计20.7万人 43 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,420 比前一周减少1.1万人 44 00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:42,840 低于经济学家预期的21.5万人 45 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,980 初请失业金人数减少并低于预期 46 00:01:45,980 --> 00:01:48,459 这表明劳动力市场保持稳定 47 00:01:48,459 --> 00:01:51,799 并没有被能源成本提高所影响 48 00:01:51,799 --> 00:01:54,120 失业率保持稳定的情况下 49 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,359 美联储没有降息的动力 50 00:01:56,359 --> 00:02:00,019 但同时也说明美国经济进入衰退的说法 51 00:02:00,019 --> 00:02:01,920 那只是一种市场的担忧 52 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:03,159 而不是既定的 53 00:02:03,159 --> 00:02:07,060 事实上半年的议息会议还有两次 54 00:02:07,060 --> 00:02:10,500 分别是4月29号和6月17号 55 00:02:10,500 --> 00:02:12,639 失业率不会有太大变化 56 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,400 核心通胀没有显著回升的情况下 57 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,099 美联储极有可能都是按兵不动 58 00:02:18,099 --> 00:02:20,680 上半年剩下了两次议息会议 59 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,289 有98%的概率是要维持利率不变 60 00:02:24,289 --> 00:02:27,169 有1.4%的概率要降息一次 61 00:02:27,169 --> 00:02:31,259 有0.5%的概率会加息25个基点 62 00:02:31,659 --> 00:02:33,520 伊朗战争处于停火 63 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,979 并等待二次谈判的阶段 64 00:02:36,259 --> 00:02:38,860 美伊停火协议下周三到期 65 00:02:38,860 --> 00:02:41,659 美国军方已经做好打击准备 66 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,319 美国对伊朗的海上封锁 67 00:02:45,319 --> 00:02:47,759 只是停火期间的以礼相待 68 00:02:47,759 --> 00:02:49,199 要是接到命令 69 00:02:49,199 --> 00:02:50,560 美军已经准备好 70 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:54,300 对伊朗的发电厂和能源工业进行打击 71 00:02:54,300 --> 00:02:57,560 美国军方扩大了对伊朗封锁的范围 72 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,379 将武器弹药 73 00:02:59,379 --> 00:03:00,139 原油 74 00:03:00,139 --> 00:03:02,750 钢铁和铝都纳入其中 75 00:03:02,750 --> 00:03:04,810 对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁 76 00:03:04,810 --> 00:03:07,500 应该是给伊朗形成了较大压力 77 00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:08,620 伊朗提出 78 00:03:08,620 --> 00:03:12,169 如果能达成一项防止冲突再次发生的协议 79 00:03:12,169 --> 00:03:15,610 可以允许船只自由通过霍尔木兹海峡的阿曼 80 00:03:15,610 --> 00:03:17,819 这一侧不会被攻击 81 00:03:18,219 --> 00:03:21,580 川普对第二次谈判和战争即将结束的前景 82 00:03:21,580 --> 00:03:22,599 表示乐观 83 00:03:22,599 --> 00:03:24,659 他说战争即将结束 84 00:03:24,659 --> 00:03:26,560 股市即将繁荣 85 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:27,780 川普表示 86 00:03:27,780 --> 00:03:30,340 也许周末会举行第二次谈判 87 00:03:30,340 --> 00:03:34,370 但是他也不确定是否需要延长停火协议 88 00:03:34,370 --> 00:03:35,689 周末之前 89 00:03:35,689 --> 00:03:38,610 美股整体行情可能会因为周末消息面 90 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:40,800 不确定性而犹豫不决 91 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,659 但是有可能周末并非是坏消息 92 00:03:43,659 --> 00:03:47,580 如果周末消息面平稳或者意外达成了协议 93 00:03:47,580 --> 00:03:49,899 那股市情绪就会变得乐观 94 00:03:49,899 --> 00:03:52,118 毕竟股市创了新高之后 95 00:03:52,118 --> 00:03:53,979 利好消息容易传播 96 00:03:53,979 --> 00:03:56,389 利空消息容易被消化 97 00:03:56,389 --> 00:03:57,990 股市大涨的时候 98 00:03:57,990 --> 00:04:01,769 会专门挑好消息来解释行情上涨的合理性 99 00:04:01,769 --> 00:04:04,528 本来美国两党还在为国防开支 100 00:04:04,528 --> 00:04:06,530 预算打得要政府关门 101 00:04:06,530 --> 00:04:08,270 结果战争打响 102 00:04:08,270 --> 00:04:12,240 川普为五角大楼开出了1.5万亿美元的预算 103 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,240 白宫在这之前提议增加国防开支的同时 104 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,908 削减国内机构10%的预算 105 00:04:20,608 --> 00:04:24,848 说你们怎么要砍掉国内的医疗教育和住房开支 106 00:04:24,848 --> 00:04:27,158 来支持对外战争呢 107 00:04:27,158 --> 00:04:30,230 美国国防预算的争议还将继续 108 00:04:30,550 --> 00:04:32,209 既然开出了天价 109 00:04:32,209 --> 00:04:34,149 砍一些也还是很多 110 00:04:34,149 --> 00:04:36,178 这对军工股市利好 111 00:04:36,178 --> 00:04:39,379 美股军工股当中比较有投资价值的是 112 00:04:39,379 --> 00:04:41,399 洛克希德马丁机翼 113 00:04:41,399 --> 00:04:46,019 航天航空PLTR等国防相关的ETF 114 00:04:46,019 --> 00:04:48,509 有ITAPPA等 115 00:04:48,509 --> 00:04:51,910 军工股的科技含量其实是非常高的 116 00:04:51,910 --> 00:04:54,480 军工股其实也是科技股 117 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,740 昨天到今天有一只迷音股突然成为热门话题 118 00:04:58,740 --> 00:05:00,439 它叫ORBIRDS 119 00:05:00,439 --> 00:05:02,779 代码是BIRD 120 00:05:02,779 --> 00:05:05,420 昨天涨了582% 121 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:08,668 非常刺激 122 00:05:08,668 --> 00:05:10,749 但这只股风险极大 123 00:05:10,749 --> 00:05:12,288 建议大家回避 124 00:05:12,288 --> 00:05:15,250 首先它的市值只有不到一个亿 125 00:05:15,250 --> 00:05:17,310 这还是暴涨之后的 126 00:05:17,310 --> 00:05:20,788 暴涨之前就更是一个迷你盘的仙股了 127 00:05:20,788 --> 00:05:24,389 这样市值的股票通常我在节目里是不说的 128 00:05:25,468 --> 00:05:27,149 说它主要是因为话题 129 00:05:27,149 --> 00:05:28,829 我觉得是有思考意义 130 00:05:28,829 --> 00:05:31,189 不是要推荐这支股啊 131 00:05:31,189 --> 00:05:34,209 这家公司做鞋子搞得快破产了 132 00:05:34,209 --> 00:05:36,699 摇身一变变成了AI股 133 00:05:36,699 --> 00:05:40,449 这个品牌在硅谷特定圈层内非常有名 134 00:05:40,449 --> 00:05:44,350 从谷歌的创始人佩奇到苹果的库克 135 00:05:44,350 --> 00:05:46,759 都被拍到穿过他家的鞋子 136 00:05:46,759 --> 00:05:49,199 但是做鞋子年年亏损 137 00:05:49,199 --> 00:05:51,149 这生意实在没法干 138 00:05:51,149 --> 00:05:54,310 于是公司宣布要转型为一家AI 139 00:05:54,310 --> 00:05:55,980 算力基础设施公司 140 00:05:55,980 --> 00:05:58,160 更名为new bird AI 141 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,500 他打算买AI芯片租给科技公司做GPU 142 00:06:02,500 --> 00:06:04,550 按需出租的业务 143 00:06:04,949 --> 00:06:08,829 说起来高大上的其实就是小区门口的鞋子店 144 00:06:08,829 --> 00:06:09,750 快倒了 145 00:06:09,750 --> 00:06:13,050 改行买几台电脑来出租的放大版 146 00:06:13,050 --> 00:06:14,889 那公司手上的现金啊 147 00:06:14,889 --> 00:06:16,230 就几千万美元 148 00:06:16,230 --> 00:06:19,600 能买多少算力来租给别人还很成问题 149 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,939 要开展新的生意就要融资 150 00:06:21,939 --> 00:06:23,160 all birds表示 151 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,879 将发行5000万美元的可转债券 152 00:06:25,879 --> 00:06:28,389 用于支持新的商业计划 153 00:06:28,670 --> 00:06:30,589 从这件事可以看到 154 00:06:30,589 --> 00:06:33,589 AI可能进入一个泡沫中期阶段 155 00:06:33,589 --> 00:06:36,930 现在的市场非常像2000年的前夕 156 00:06:36,930 --> 00:06:40,069 当时只要公司名字里加个dot com 157 00:06:40,069 --> 00:06:42,319 股价就能一飞冲天 158 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,738 正是这种名字游戏的翻版啊 159 00:06:48,738 --> 00:06:51,038 资金不再关注公司的基本面 160 00:06:51,038 --> 00:06:55,610 而是疯狂寻找任何能和AI挂钩的低价壳资源 161 00:06:55,610 --> 00:07:00,240 这种非理性的狂欢正是题材出现了泡沫的标志 162 00:07:00,519 --> 00:07:02,199 美股大盘历史新高 163 00:07:02,199 --> 00:07:04,660 说明市场整体估值又回升了 164 00:07:04,660 --> 00:07:06,139 又不便宜了 165 00:07:06,139 --> 00:07:07,920 如果股价不便宜 166 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,120 财报季就会面临考验 167 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,360 本周开始 168 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,339 财报即将进入中场的关键阶段 169 00:07:14,339 --> 00:07:16,930 科技巨头的财报将陆续发布 170 00:07:16,930 --> 00:07:19,889 这里面有机会也有风险 171 00:07:19,889 --> 00:07:23,839 更是一些个股行情方向性转折的时间窗口 172 00:07:23,839 --> 00:07:27,439 刚刚奈飞盘后财报就非常凶险 173 00:07:27,439 --> 00:07:30,050 截图的时候已经跌了9%了 174 00:07:30,050 --> 00:07:32,050 奈飞盘后财报显示 175 00:07:32,050 --> 00:07:34,670 上季度营业收入122.5亿 176 00:07:34,670 --> 00:07:36,670 同比增长16.2% 177 00:07:36,670 --> 00:07:38,810 净利润52.83亿 178 00:07:38,810 --> 00:07:40,850 较四季度翻倍有余 179 00:07:40,850 --> 00:07:44,290 主要是因为收到华纳兄弟的违约金28亿 180 00:07:44,290 --> 00:07:46,920 导致这种非经常性损益 181 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,769 在持续经营分析中可以剔除 182 00:07:50,050 --> 00:07:51,689 盘后大跌的原因是 183 00:07:51,689 --> 00:07:54,980 二季度业绩预期低于华尔街的预期 184 00:07:54,980 --> 00:07:58,699 公司预计二季度营业收入是125.7亿 185 00:07:58,699 --> 00:08:01,139 低于预期的126.4亿 186 00:08:01,139 --> 00:08:04,180 二季度预期每股收益是78美分 187 00:08:04,180 --> 00:08:06,860 低于预期的八十四美分 188 00:08:07,220 --> 00:08:08,439 到了财报季 189 00:08:08,439 --> 00:08:12,810 明星股要做到三项超过预期才能平安过关 190 00:08:12,810 --> 00:08:14,290 三项超预期 191 00:08:14,290 --> 00:08:18,180 分别是上季度营收利润要超过预期 192 00:08:18,180 --> 00:08:22,259 还要求下季度或者全年预期的收入和利润 193 00:08:22,259 --> 00:08:23,649 超过预期 194 00:08:23,649 --> 00:08:26,870 对于那些有云服务业务的巨头来说 195 00:08:26,870 --> 00:08:28,209 单独的人工智能 196 00:08:28,209 --> 00:08:28,370 云 197 00:08:28,370 --> 00:08:32,470 数据中心业务收入也被放在放大镜上进行观察 198 00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:34,769 只要单项不达预期 199 00:08:34,769 --> 00:08:36,788 股价也会大跌 200 00:08:37,188 --> 00:08:40,558 这个就是一季报财报季的结构性风险 201 00:08:40,558 --> 00:08:42,599 如果股价刚刚暴跌完 202 00:08:42,599 --> 00:08:46,818 可能市场会看在股价便宜的份上降低一点要求 203 00:08:46,818 --> 00:08:49,099 但是现在美股创了新高 204 00:08:49,099 --> 00:08:51,359 不少科技巨头要么新高 205 00:08:51,359 --> 00:08:53,918 要么会在财报公布前新高 206 00:08:53,918 --> 00:08:56,059 估值重新回到高位 207 00:08:56,059 --> 00:09:00,029 那财报就不能有一点问题才能过关 208 00:09:02,549 --> 00:09:04,669 其实也有相同的原因 209 00:09:04,669 --> 00:09:08,190 75元见底收购华纳兄弟黄了 210 00:09:08,190 --> 00:09:09,470 省了一笔钱 211 00:09:09,470 --> 00:09:10,889 没财务压力了 212 00:09:10,889 --> 00:09:12,940 股价反弹了40% 213 00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:14,379 反弹这么多 214 00:09:14,379 --> 00:09:16,120 找个理由调整一下 215 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,409 那业绩前景不达预期就是个理由 216 00:09:19,409 --> 00:09:21,330 奈飞是流媒体龙头 217 00:09:21,330 --> 00:09:23,149 有极强的用户粘性 218 00:09:23,149 --> 00:09:25,250 跌多了必有反弹 219 00:09:25,529 --> 00:09:28,750 台积电和阿斯麦今天也发布财报 220 00:09:28,750 --> 00:09:30,830 台积电财报非常优秀 221 00:09:30,830 --> 00:09:33,490 一季报营收是359亿 222 00:09:33,490 --> 00:09:35,549 同比增长40.6% 223 00:09:35,549 --> 00:09:37,250 高于市场预期 224 00:09:37,250 --> 00:09:38,769 毛利率非常高 225 00:09:38,769 --> 00:09:41,210 一季度毛利率66.2% 226 00:09:41,210 --> 00:09:43,110 同比增长7.4% 227 00:09:43,110 --> 00:09:44,220 高于预期 228 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:47,259 毛利率高是产品具有竞争力的表现 229 00:09:47,259 --> 00:09:48,440 有垄断地位 230 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:49,649 有护城河 231 00:09:49,649 --> 00:09:51,649 所以能比成本高很多 232 00:09:51,649 --> 00:09:52,750 再卖 233 00:09:52,950 --> 00:09:53,549 台积电 234 00:09:53,549 --> 00:09:57,070 预测二季度的营收是390亿到402亿 235 00:09:57,070 --> 00:09:58,529 还会再创纪录 236 00:10:01,339 --> 00:10:03,158 各项指标都很好 237 00:10:03,158 --> 00:10:04,859 股价还是跌 238 00:10:04,859 --> 00:10:07,839 所以今天我提出结构性风险 239 00:10:07,839 --> 00:10:10,359 就是市场审美疲劳 240 00:10:10,359 --> 00:10:11,678 太漂亮了 241 00:10:11,678 --> 00:10:13,870 多看一眼都是漂亮 242 00:10:13,870 --> 00:10:15,830 然后有什么用呢 243 00:10:15,830 --> 00:10:18,330 你本该如此漂亮啊 244 00:10:18,690 --> 00:10:20,850 人工智能和数据中心的需求 245 00:10:20,850 --> 00:10:23,309 仍是半导体产业的核心驱动力 246 00:10:23,309 --> 00:10:24,570 台积电的财报 247 00:10:24,570 --> 00:10:27,568 是本次财报首个半导体巨头的报告 248 00:10:27,568 --> 00:10:28,808 上游火爆 249 00:10:28,808 --> 00:10:31,629 说明中下游生意也不错 250 00:10:32,029 --> 00:10:35,350 我去年卖出的AAMD最近开始大涨 251 00:10:35,350 --> 00:10:37,570 今天大涨7.8% 252 00:10:37,570 --> 00:10:40,529 多家机构上调了AAMD的评级 253 00:10:40,529 --> 00:10:43,029 建议买入AAMD 254 00:10:43,029 --> 00:10:44,590 今天大涨的原因是 255 00:10:44,590 --> 00:10:47,350 跟法国政府宣布多年合作协议 256 00:10:47,350 --> 00:10:50,169 支持法国的国家主权AI布局 257 00:10:50,169 --> 00:10:51,289 这一消息 258 00:10:51,289 --> 00:10:54,730 标志着AMD在主权AI和欧洲数据中心市场 259 00:10:54,730 --> 00:10:56,440 取得重大突破 260 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:57,919 股价连续大涨 261 00:10:57,919 --> 00:10:59,419 突破前期高点后 262 00:10:59,419 --> 00:11:03,669 预计这支股将在财报发布前都会有不错的表现 263 00:11:03,669 --> 00:11:04,669 卖出了股 264 00:11:04,669 --> 00:11:08,409 大涨是股民要碰到的家常便饭哈 265 00:11:08,409 --> 00:11:11,590 我对持仓的个股家数有限制的 266 00:11:11,590 --> 00:11:14,309 不会像开超市什么都近一点 267 00:11:14,309 --> 00:11:15,950 又都没有权重 268 00:11:15,950 --> 00:11:18,070 我一直都是看好AMD的 269 00:11:18,070 --> 00:11:19,710 只是没有持有罢了 270 00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:21,909 好今天的节目就分享到这里 271 00:11:21,909 --> 00:11:22,889 感谢大家收看 272 00:11:22,889 --> 00:11:24,899 我们下期节目再见拜拜
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