韭菜没有财报解释权！NaNa说美股(2026.04.16)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月16号

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周四

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特大股指集体小幅收涨

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市场整体依然维持强势节奏

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标普与纳指都续创新高

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从宏观趋势来看

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市场的核心驱动没有变化

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反而在进一步强化

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CNN表示

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美伊谈判的进展正在从能不能谈

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逐步过渡到怎么落地

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多方消息显示

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双方在霍尔木兹海峡通航

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由浓缩限制等关键问题上

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已经达成了原则性共识

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剩下的分歧更多是数字层面的讨价还价

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双方都需要一份可以对内宣称胜利的协议

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随着时间逼近停火窗口的尾声

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政治上的紧迫性上升

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第二轮谈判成功的概率在提高

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川普呢也再次放话

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希望在4月底之前就达成协议

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这些信号叠加在一起

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使得市场对达成最终协议的乐观情绪增加

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对应到盘面上就是地缘政治的权重在下降

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市场重新把注意力拉回到盈利和流动性本身

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纳指已经连续12个交易日上涨

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为2019年以来最长的连涨记录

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日K今天收出一根高位十字星

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看起来有点犹豫

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但本质更像是强趋势中的中继整理嗯

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垂直上弓在纳子历史上出现过多次

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更常见的结果呢

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不是直接倒V暴跌哈

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而是做一个高位平台消化获利盘

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然后再选择方向

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根据历史表现

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当纳指出现这种走势之后

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未来一周一个月后的收益率都是为正

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这些连涨走势呢通常出现在流动性强劲

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而且市场广度持续扩大的时期

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市场整体的仓位配置也依然偏轻

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这意味着投资者仍有进一步增加

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风险敞口的空间

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因此虽然技术面短线已经严重超买了

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情绪呢一致性较强

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容易出现快速回调

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但是我也不打算做空哈

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过去的血泪经验已经反复验证了一件事

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就是在美股长期牛市里做空啊

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是一件性价比很低的事情

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甚至啊可以说美股生存第一法则

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就是永远不要做空强势的长期牛市呃

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若是担心回调呢

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那就减仓实现部分利润

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等待回调后的再参与

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而不是直接去赌趋势反转

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既是一场完美的流动性风暴

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也包含着对AI生产力革命的超前定价

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银行股的财报开了一个好头

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本季度利润创下近20年来最高

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华尔街现在就更加期待

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下周科技巨头们的财报了

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对英伟达

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苹果美观这些核心公司的盈利表现尤其乐观

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台积电今天交出的成绩单

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可以说使给整个AI链条打了一针强心剂

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净利润同比增长了接近60%

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同时呢上调全年指引

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明确表示

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AI需求依然非常强劲

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无论是云厂商还是下游客户需求都在持续释放

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即便市场在争论AI有没有泡沫

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但至少在当前阶段

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这条主线的基本面依然是成立的

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在半导体行业的带动之下

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台湾股市市值都已经超越了英国股市

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成为全球第七大股市了啊

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这个厉不厉害

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但是问题也开始出现

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AI这条主线已经从讲故事进入了算账阶段

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云计算巨头的资本开支仍在大幅增长

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一季度总额预计接近1500亿美元

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同比增长92%

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但与此同时

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巨头们的自有现金流却在明显的下滑

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微软meta

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这些公司利润率

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都因为巨额基础设施支出而受到挤压

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投资者现在要求

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这些巨头的AI收入能够显著增长

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以证明这些成本的合理性

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如果接下来大科技财报能够证明

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AI投入已经开始转化为实质性收入

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那么标普500指数的7000点哈

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就会是新一轮行情的起点

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但如果AI的盈利兑现跟不上投入节奏的话

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那7000点就摇摇欲坠了

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从资金结构来看

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指数现在的上涨已经演变为贪婪驱动

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散户虽然four目

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但并非主力

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真正支撑指数的呢是那些在年初的时候看空

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现在面临二季度业绩考核压力

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现金比例过高的传统长线公募基金

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由于标普500突破了7000点哈

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这些基金为了基金排名不得不被迫加仓

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这一种买盘比CCTA更有韧性

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不会像CTA那样子短期撤退

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这也是为什么7000点附近的支撑

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要比很多人想象中的要更扎实

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但是再强的趋势

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也不能够一直以这种斜率上涨呀

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市场对于下个周24月21号前后

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美伊达成协议呢已经变成了共识

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这种一致性本身就是风险哈

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如果利好真的落地了嗯

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反而可能触发一波就是利好兑现的小幅回撤

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市场现在最大的风险并不是没达成协议

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而是达成协议之后

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没有新的利好来支撑这个7000点

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所以呢现在就迫切需要财报季的爆发

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来作为新一轮上涨行情的染料

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如果盈利兑现

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指数才能够进入一个更缓慢

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但是更稳健的上行阶段

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从更大的结构来看

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这一轮上涨已经把市场的底部认知

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整体给抬高了

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6300~6500

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这一带堆积了大量长线资金的成本区

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除非嗯出现系统性风险或者每一帧的全面开战

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否则的话

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今年指数跌破这个区间的概率很低哈

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而这个6300点呢

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也已经成为了今年年内的结构性底部了

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因此如果后面每一谈判出现波折

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或者5月份哈出现技术性回撤

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不要妄想还能够再见到6300啦

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分手了就结束了

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等这一轮分母行情结束之后

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指数能够回落到6840附近

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你就偷笑吧

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到时候别管他是不是底部

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先买票上车哈

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被套住了再慢慢研究抄底这个事就和结婚一样

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想的太清楚了

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反而下不了手

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就得一咬牙一跺脚

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直接上高盛交易台的数据显示

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客户交流情况表明

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市场对标普500指数在未来一个月的共识

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目标区间落在7200点到7300点之间

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前几天我记得当呃

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标普500还处在6782点的时候

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高盛好几份报告啊

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呃天天出说这个标普500极限就是7000点了

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建议投资者赶紧的这个抓住机会卖出呃

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看涨期权买入铺扯压住指数回调

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结果现在改口说呃

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看到七千二七千三了哈

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如果到这个位置啊

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那是需要极强的财报激利好配合的

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按照目前这个动能的惯性延伸嗯

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极限拉到七千一百五十七千二百点还是有可能

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如果要拉到7300点

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那指数呃就必须要先经历一次回踩

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比如回探6850呃

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到6900点

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让获利盘换手

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才能够有足够的能量去冲向下一个300点

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市场内部呢也在发生结构性变化

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资金开始从纯粹的AI硬件

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逐渐向软件和应用层扩散了

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美股

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软件板块近日来迎来了一场久违的强势反弹

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之前大家一股脑的都拥挤

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扎堆在半导体硬件那边

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现在软件这边估值修复

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加上资金再平衡啊

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机构们开始就回头买这些被错杀的软件龙头

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比如微软甲骨文

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这些这种轮动是健康牛市的特征哈

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而并不是崩盘的前兆

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所以这也意味着

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即便大盘指数后面不涨了

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高位震荡或者呢就开始小回调

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个股的局部牛市还能够维持很久

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甲骨文这一边

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技术面已经走到了一个非常关键的位置

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股价正式突破了170亿这条颈线位

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如果后面几天能够稳住

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不再跌回颈线下方

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那这个结构基本就可以确认

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是一个标准的W双底形态

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一旦成立

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这种级别的反转形态呢

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通常意味着中期趋势已经从下跌转为三星

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后面不排除还有一段趋势性行情可以期待哈

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但是这个被甲骨文给教育久了

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咱们还不能太早兴奋

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关键不在于突破

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而在于站稳

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很多时候第一下冲过去

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可能只是情绪和资金的推动

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如果后面承接不够的话

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很容易变成假突破

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所以呢

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接下来几天的走势比今天的突破更重要哈

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消息面向公司宣布与亚马逊云服务合作

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进一步扩展多云网络

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这种合作从长期战略上看是加分项

215
00:09:41,039 --> 00:09:44,440
说明甲骨文在云生态里的位置的增强

216
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,419
也在主动融入主流云体系

217
00:09:47,419 --> 00:09:50,019
但是从短期股价驱动来看

218
00:09:50,019 --> 00:09:52,929
这种消息谈不上什么硬核利好

219
00:09:52,929 --> 00:09:56,169
更多只是给情绪锦上添花而已

220
00:09:56,169 --> 00:09:58,429
不是决定趋势的核心变量

221
00:09:58,429 --> 00:10:00,789
如果后面财报能够证明

222
00:10:00,789 --> 00:10:03,110
他手里的订单在加速落地

223
00:10:03,110 --> 00:10:04,659
现金流在改善

224
00:10:04,659 --> 00:10:08,340
那这次突破呢才有可能走成真正的趋势哈

225
00:10:08,340 --> 00:10:08,899
否则的话

226
00:10:08,899 --> 00:10:12,399
更大概率还是一波情绪推动下的

227
00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:14,279
阶段性修复行情

228
00:10:14,279 --> 00:10:16,720
微软最近也持续反弹

229
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,019
前期因为AI投入过大

230
00:10:19,019 --> 00:10:20,580
利润率承压担忧

231
00:10:20,580 --> 00:10:23,340
再加上呢它本身属于软件板块嘛

232
00:10:23,340 --> 00:10:26,750
股价经历了一轮比较明显的估值压缩

233
00:10:26,750 --> 00:10:28,690
现在随着市场情绪回暖

234
00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:30,509
加上指数整体走强

235
00:10:30,509 --> 00:10:33,690
资金开始重新回流到这种基本面

236
00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:35,559
最硬的核心资产里

237
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,460
公司将在4月29号发布财报

238
00:10:38,460 --> 00:10:41,739
资金开始在财报前就抢跑嗯

239
00:10:41,739 --> 00:10:43,999
空投呢也开始回补平仓

240
00:10:43,999 --> 00:10:46,039
财报前风险不大

241
00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:49,220
耐克这只老登骨完全失去活力了哈

242
00:10:49,220 --> 00:10:54,429
即使呃有苹果CEO库克和耐克CEO这两位重磅人士

243
00:10:54,429 --> 00:10:55,990
双双逆势加仓

244
00:10:55,990 --> 00:10:56,830
耐克的股票

245
00:10:56,830 --> 00:10:59,179
都没能够让这个股价爆发

246
00:10:59,179 --> 00:11:01,740
这几天你看它反弹的不温不火的

247
00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:03,460
完全不能够和外面

248
00:11:03,460 --> 00:11:06,899
而市场那个formal火热墙面相比

249
00:11:06,899 --> 00:11:09,700
不知道是不是因为库克去年12月底买入后

250
00:11:09,700 --> 00:11:10,460
也被套了

251
00:11:10,460 --> 00:11:11,779
浮亏了25%

252
00:11:11,779 --> 00:11:14,200
让大家觉得哎呀库克也是个大韭菜

253
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,769
所以对他的加持就没信心了

254
00:11:16,769 --> 00:11:20,970
库克这次呢买了大约106万美元啊

255
00:11:20,970 --> 00:11:22,809
耐克CEO买了100万美元

256
00:11:22,809 --> 00:11:25,070
这点钱对他们来说毛毛雨啦

257
00:11:25,070 --> 00:11:25,870
小意思

258
00:11:25,870 --> 00:11:28,470
如果一口气买个五六百万美元的话

259
00:11:28,470 --> 00:11:30,299
可能更有说服力一些

260
00:11:30,299 --> 00:11:33,899
嘉信理财第一季度营收增长16%

261
00:11:33,899 --> 00:11:36,120
达到了64.8亿美元

262
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,309
略低于前65亿美元

263
00:11:38,309 --> 00:11:40,950
调整后每股收益1.43美元

264
00:11:40,950 --> 00:11:42,690
好于预期1.4美元

265
00:11:42,690 --> 00:11:45,610
核心经营数据依然稳健活跃

266
00:11:45,610 --> 00:11:48,110
经济账户同比增长6%

267
00:11:48,110 --> 00:11:50,690
客户资产规模同比增长19%

268
00:11:50,690 --> 00:11:52,740
达到了11.8万亿美元

269
00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,700
说明无论是用户基础还是资金层面

270
00:11:55,700 --> 00:11:57,269
都在持续扩张

271
00:11:57,269 --> 00:12:00,110
这份季报从绝对表现来看哈并不差

272
00:12:00,110 --> 00:12:04,090
但是现在的市场环境已经不是还不错就可以了

273
00:12:04,090 --> 00:12:05,429
必须要完美

274
00:12:05,429 --> 00:12:07,350
在指数已经回到高位

275
00:12:07,350 --> 00:12:09,750
整体估值也不低的背景之下

276
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:12,799
投资者对财报的容忍度明下降哈

277
00:12:12,799 --> 00:12:14,320
只要差那么一丁点点

278
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:15,120
不急于七

279
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:16,909
就要遭到严厉惩罚

280
00:12:16,909 --> 00:12:18,529
股价季后大跌

281
00:12:18,529 --> 00:12:21,389
再次回落到半年线下方的震荡区间

282
00:12:21,389 --> 00:12:22,190
而这意味着

283
00:12:22,190 --> 00:12:25,750
这一份财报呢并没有提供新的上行动力

284
00:12:25,750 --> 00:12:28,450
反而让一部分资金选择兑现离场

285
00:12:28,450 --> 00:12:30,169
更深一层看的话

286
00:12:30,169 --> 00:12:33,730
这也反映出当前市场的一个核心特征

287
00:12:33,730 --> 00:12:37,440
就是在流动性推动指数上涨之后

288
00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:42,549
定价权正在逐渐的从情绪回归到兑现了哈

289
00:12:42,549 --> 00:12:45,210
那些没有明显超预期

290
00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:49,230
或者无法提供更强前瞻指引的公司

291
00:12:49,230 --> 00:12:51,840
很难再获得估值溢价呃

292
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,460
因为现在这个美债收益率又回到

293
00:12:54,460 --> 00:12:56,340
4.3%的水平了哈

294
00:12:56,340 --> 00:12:58,210
这种情况之下嗯

295
00:12:58,210 --> 00:13:00,009
嗯资金反而更容易调仓

296
00:13:00,009 --> 00:13:02,190
换到更有确定性的方向

297
00:13:02,190 --> 00:13:05,200
比如AI主线或者高增长的科技股

298
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,600
汽车租赁公司

299
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,799
安徽市最近出现了一轮史诗级的噶空

300
00:13:09,799 --> 00:13:12,179
股价在短短两周内翻的三倍

301
00:13:12,179 --> 00:13:14,539
重创了一大批空头啊

302
00:13:14,539 --> 00:13:15,789
血流成河

303
00:13:15,789 --> 00:13:18,470
这个日线走势简直就是登云梯哈

304
00:13:18,470 --> 00:13:23,950
这时候就不要去看什么埃塞超买MMACD背离了

305
00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:25,610
这个正常的技术分析

306
00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:29,120
在这种行情里面基本都失败的哈

307
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,429
行情完全由主力操盘手说了算

308
00:13:32,429 --> 00:13:35,769
这种行情之所以能够这么持续

309
00:13:35,769 --> 00:13:38,350
就是因为旧空头被打爆

310
00:13:38,350 --> 00:13:41,450
新空投呢还在不断的补位嗯

311
00:13:41,450 --> 00:13:43,129
根据S3partner数据

312
00:13:43,129 --> 00:13:44,370
该股空头头寸

313
00:13:44,370 --> 00:13:47,669
但自有流通股比例已经达到了58%呃

314
00:13:47,669 --> 00:13:49,769
创近10年来的新高

315
00:13:49,769 --> 00:13:52,289
这就好像一个堆满了火药的桶

316
00:13:52,289 --> 00:13:54,809
只要有一点点火星就会被点爆

317
00:13:54,809 --> 00:13:56,370
现在火已经点着了

318
00:13:56,370 --> 00:13:59,039
桶里还有一半以上的火药没烧完

319
00:13:59,039 --> 00:14:00,039
牛逼成这样子

320
00:14:00,039 --> 00:14:01,000
还搞什么租车

321
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,639
夜晚明天就可以宣布出擎天柱

322
00:14:03,639 --> 00:14:06,139
或者搞一个移动机房得了

323
00:14:06,139 --> 00:14:07,419
玩笑归玩笑哈

324
00:14:07,419 --> 00:14:10,259
这种行情风险其实也同样极端的

325
00:14:10,259 --> 00:14:12,980
一旦空头被清理的差不多了

326
00:14:12,980 --> 00:14:15,370
新的接盘资金又跟不上的话

327
00:14:15,370 --> 00:14:18,250
呃那股价回落的速度就会非常的快

328
00:14:18,250 --> 00:14:19,909
这种票就是赌场

329
00:14:19,909 --> 00:14:23,690
不是可以用常规估值去长期持有的标的

330
00:14:23,690 --> 00:14:26,269
为航空航天和国防公司

331
00:14:26,269 --> 00:14:29,450
生产电子以及机械零部件的制造商

332
00:14:29,450 --> 00:14:33,190
ERXXS近日呢首日登陆纳斯达克

333
00:14:33,190 --> 00:14:33,610
Ipo

334
00:14:33,610 --> 00:14:34,690
定价28美元

335
00:14:34,690 --> 00:14:36,700
募资11.3亿美元

336
00:14:36,700 --> 00:14:38,019
从体量上看

337
00:14:38,019 --> 00:14:42,000
这已经算是今年比较有分量的一个工业家

338
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,659
军工方向IPO了

339
00:14:43,659 --> 00:14:46,700
股价今天呢收涨38.4%

340
00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:49,019
在当前风险偏好回暖

341
00:14:49,019 --> 00:14:50,879
流动性充裕的环境下

342
00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:52,799
新股更容易获得溢价

343
00:14:52,799 --> 00:14:54,700
我完全不了解这家公司哈

344
00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:57,399
基本面细节还需要时间去消化

345
00:14:57,399 --> 00:15:01,120
但这个公司选择在这个时间点上市呢

346
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:02,220
非常的聪明

347
00:15:02,220 --> 00:15:05,820
当前市场整体处在风险偏好上行阶段

348
00:15:05,820 --> 00:15:08,299
资金愿意为了新股市买单

349
00:15:08,299 --> 00:15:09,679
而且航空航天

350
00:15:09,679 --> 00:15:14,350
国防以及商业航天这些叙事最近明显在升温

351
00:15:14,350 --> 00:15:17,710
尤其是围绕SPACEX潜在上市的预期

352
00:15:17,710 --> 00:15:20,399
已经不断给整个板块预热了

353
00:15:20,399 --> 00:15:24,620
可以蹭到一部分资金对space x产业链的想象空间

354
00:15:24,620 --> 00:15:26,620
对于很多短线资金来说

355
00:15:26,620 --> 00:15:28,700
它不一定需要完全搞清楚

356
00:15:28,700 --> 00:15:30,259
这个公司到底做什么的

357
00:15:30,259 --> 00:15:31,639
只要标签对了

358
00:15:31,639 --> 00:15:34,899
情绪在就会愿意参与一把锂矿股

359
00:15:34,899 --> 00:15:36,360
今天呢集体大涨

360
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,340
美国雅宝涨超16%

361
00:15:38,340 --> 00:15:41,039
澳洲一家关键炼油厂发生火灾

362
00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:44,070
引发了市场对柴油供应的担忧

363
00:15:44,070 --> 00:15:47,710
因为澳洲锂矿产业对柴油的依赖非常的高

364
00:15:47,710 --> 00:15:50,830
大量矿区位于偏远地区呃

365
00:15:50,830 --> 00:15:54,960
运输和生产环节主要依靠柴油卡车来完成

366
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,340
从矿石开采到运输再到初步加工

367
00:15:58,340 --> 00:16:01,039
几乎都离不开稳定的燃料供应

368
00:16:01,039 --> 00:16:03,559
所以一旦柴油供应出现瓶颈的话

369
00:16:03,559 --> 00:16:07,679
就会直接影响到锂矿的生产效率和出货节奏

370
00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:10,039
市场迅速把这个事件解读为

371
00:16:10,039 --> 00:16:12,480
潜在的供给收缩信号

372
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,379
从稳呢推动锂矿板块整体走强

373
00:16:15,379 --> 00:16:16,399
但是目前来看

374
00:16:16,399 --> 00:16:19,080
这更多还只是预期驱动而已啦

375
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,759
后续还要看炼油长受损程度以及修复周期哈

376
00:16:22,759 --> 00:16:24,399
如果只是短期扰动的话

377
00:16:24,399 --> 00:16:25,609
影响有限

378
00:16:25,609 --> 00:16:26,849
差点忘了说

379
00:16:26,849 --> 00:16:27,948
奈飞的财报

380
00:16:27,948 --> 00:16:30,408
Q1营收122.5亿美元

381
00:16:30,408 --> 00:16:31,960
同比增长16%

382
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:33,799
每股收益1.23美元

383
00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:35,799
同比大增86%

384
00:16:35,799 --> 00:16:37,269
都好于市场预期

385
00:16:37,269 --> 00:16:40,750
但是Q2每股收益指引78美分

386
00:16:40,750 --> 00:16:42,730
不及预期的八十四美分

387
00:16:42,730 --> 00:16:44,490
而且创始人嗯

388
00:16:44,490 --> 00:16:49,210
REIDHASTIN将会于6月任期结束时离开董事会

389
00:16:49,210 --> 00:16:51,169
专注公益与其他事业

390
00:16:51,169 --> 00:16:53,570
尽管联合CEO团队平稳接班

391
00:16:53,570 --> 00:16:56,299
文化与战略延续性明确呃

392
00:16:56,299 --> 00:16:58,789
但是股价呢盘后依然大跌

393
00:16:58,789 --> 00:17:03,450
这可能对明天市场情绪会造成一点影响

394
00:17:03,450 --> 00:17:04,470
但是呃

395
00:17:04,470 --> 00:17:07,170
奈飞对大盘的这个影响力

396
00:17:07,170 --> 00:17:08,890
其实也没有那么大了哈

397
00:17:08,890 --> 00:17:12,509
但这就像前面视频里我们所说的那样

398
00:17:12,509 --> 00:17:17,089
现在市场已经接受不了任何有瑕疵的财报了

399
00:17:17,089 --> 00:17:18,349
必须要完美

400
00:17:18,349 --> 00:17:20,638
而且前瞻指引必须要好

401
00:17:20,638 --> 00:17:23,679
这可能是这次财报季的一个隐患哈

402
00:17:23,679 --> 00:17:26,199
行今天我们就简单说到这里

403
00:17:26,199 --> 00:17:27,838
那我们明天见拜拜

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