【视野环球财经】20260617美股 新鹰派美联储，撤回指引不预判！NFLX、ISRG还建吗？SPCX新赌场，明天上线！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年6月17号

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周三晚上的8.45分

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今天呢美联储的鹰派立场是远超预期啊

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市场是被吓了一跳

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受到这个消息的影响呢

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标普的11个板块今天也是无人幸免

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标普500成份股今天也比较的惨啊

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下跌的个股数量达到了430只

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上涨的只有72只

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好久没有看到大家集体跳水

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今天呢我必须把美联储的一些新的变化

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稍微多花点时间和大家过一遍啊

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那么新官上任三把火嘛

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那么肯定有一些新人新气象

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后面美联储会有些什么样的变化

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以及这一次的联储的声明

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包括经济前景摘要

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还有未来的一些改变啊

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咱们给大家呢都过一过呃

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过完之后呢再和大家去讲一些

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大家问的多的一些个股啊

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包括今天实际上权重这边呢是权限的下跌

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还有大家呢问的比较多的

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像什么NETFLIX啊

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还有这个SRG啊

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现在跌的也比较的惨

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到底建没建仓啊

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到底买不买啊

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什么时候买啊

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等会给大家呢还是过一下哈

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好额

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咱们直接开始过一下

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美联储的利率声明以及重大的修改

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我给大家呢做了一些文档

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首先我们看一下利率声明的一些重大修改

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首先呢是维持利率不变啊

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委员会同意彻底取消前瞻性的指引

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完全取消掉啊

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同时更新了对于经济的描述

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并且在声明中还增加了一些内容

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我给大家都列出来

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首先是通货膨胀委员会呢是重申通胀依然高企

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但更新了措辞

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措辞指出通胀率高于2%的目标

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部分的原因是供应冲击

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推高了包括能源在内的某些的行业的价格啊

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之前呢是表述为近期全球能源价格上涨啊

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他这个就显得更加的直接了对吧

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供应冲击推高能源啊

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不像前面说的含含糊糊的啊

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不分原因

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什么原因呢对吧

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哎然后呢还声明了

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明确重申了委员会致力于实现价格稳定的承诺

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就业方面劳动力市场评估被上调

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美联储现在表示

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就业增长与劳动力增长保持同步

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失业率变化不大

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之前呢是就业增长平均而言仍然较低

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近几个月来失业率变化不大

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呃

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就业报告的数据

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经济活动委员会指出说呢

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尽管中东冲突等因素的不确定加剧

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但是经济活动仍以稳健的速度扩张

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那么之前的是经济活动一直以稳健的速度扩张

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然后委员会还新增了一句话啊

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说使出生产率增加和资本投资强劲啊

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你就可以看出来

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这一次他们的一些描述变得更加的直接

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就是别猜啊

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我现在告诉你好就是好不好

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就是不好

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什么原因导致的什么事

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那我直接给你讲清楚啊

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大家就不要猜猜看

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含含糊糊的对吧

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明明知道什么原因又不说啊

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所以呢美联储更加直接了

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直接的也挺好啊

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我倒是挺喜欢这种风格的好

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然后呢我们看一下关于点阵图的部分

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以及经济前景

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摘要中倒是出现了非常大的变化

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首先呢在这份的这个整个的点阵图中啊

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等会给大家看啊

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先给大家讲这个经济前景预测哈

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呃在这个情景预测里边

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我们看到最重要的是联邦利率的预期的中值

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调的比较的多

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大家可以看一下

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26年从3.4上调到了3.8啊

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3.4上调到了3.8

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看一下啊是吧

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调的非常的大

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3.3.8

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27年从3.1调到了3.6

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28年从3.1调到了3.4

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长期维持在3.1%保持不变啊

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这个就意味着呢

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现在市场预期其实呢通胀要降下

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来到2028年

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甚至之后才有可能了啊

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所以大家呢可能要逐渐的习惯

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现在的一个高通胀的状况呃

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另外呢

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经济预测方面也展现出了一些不太好的迹象呃

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第一个呢是通胀预期被上调啊

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2026年的失业的预期被下调

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但是呢实际的GDP实际上2026年也下调了啊

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2027年持平

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2028年才开始上调

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长期呢还是二

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所以明显GDP在放缓

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通胀在上行

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这两个呢当它实现了一定的交叉点之后

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那就是大家经常会讨论的说会不会有滞胀对吧

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现在还没有啊

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但是当他们达到了临界点的时候

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经济逐渐的往后走往后退

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然后的通胀的逐渐的维持在高位

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甚至继续上行

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那就是大家说的滞胀现在还早啊

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现在还早好

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另外呢点阵图方面给大家看一下

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嗯好在这份点阵图里面呢

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我们能看到比较明确的一些这个26年

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27年

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28年和长期的一些点点

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这些点点呢都是其中的这个呃委员们的投票啊

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但这个投票呢其中呃这在最终的利率决议上

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并不是大家都有投票权啊

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这个就是只要是里面的委员

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大家都能投

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那么正常来讲呢

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应该一共呢应该是所有的都投呢

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应该是有19位的

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但上面应该只有18个点啊

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谁没有投呢

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其实卧实在后面的这个叫做新闻发布会上

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也承认啊

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他自己没有投

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他为什么不投呢

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是因为他觉得点阵图没有帮助啊

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其实呃现在大家回看起来

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在特别是发生了一些重大的

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或者经济呃行为的一些冲击之后

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点阵图三个月一更新

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确实是这个幅度非常的大

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他的前瞻性的作用并不明显啊

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所以卧室不投票也挺好啊

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不投就不投啊

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可看这个呢

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反正在现在变化这么大的情况下

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经济不稳定的情况下确实用处不大

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那么点阵图的分布呢

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我们还是简单的讲一下呃

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虽然中位数预测2026年将加息一次

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但是呢有一位参与者预测加息三次

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五位预测呢加息两次

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三位预测加息一次啊

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这是非常应的对吧

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3月份的时候是没有参与者预测加息的

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那这一次大家两次一次两次三次的好多人

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与此同时呢

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还有八位参与者预计利率在26年保持不变啊

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之前是七位

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一位预测降息之前是七位

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所以这个我们主要是看一个趋势

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就是目前美联储内部的一个态度

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态度是很明显的

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从之前的宽松立场发生了转变

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转变成了鹰派的立场

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说明现在市场更加关注的就是通胀问题

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而不是劳动力市场问题

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劳动力市场现在没有看到大量的失业的提升好

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另外呢从市场的这个资金的压注层面

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现在大家看到的是整个2026年的

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压注的状况啊

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目前是3.7额

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现在的利率是3.5到3.75

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那么在这张图表上能看到市场呢已经是压住

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大概率啊

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几乎是完全计价

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2026年至少会加息一次

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这是资金投票投出来的

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不是用鼠标点击投票投出来的啊

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是用钱压出来的

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代表着真实的市场的资金博弈好

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那么这个呢是一些美联储的政策的变化

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那我们看一下沃什的第一个发布会上

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他讲了个啥

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首先啊他强调说要将通胀恢复至目标水平

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当被问及就业问题的时候呢

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他表示说啊

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委员会认为劳动力市场稳定呃

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然后呢有些人认为市场趋势比这个更好啊

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并补充说呢趋势比数据点更重要

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他还被问及他对政策的限制性的看法的时候

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给出的回应也比较的鹰派

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他是说啊这个政策不均衡

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并指出唯一可能被视为限制性政策的领域

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是住房市场

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什么意思呢

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就是现在的利率对不同的行业影响不一样

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有的有限制性

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有的没有限制性

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有的还特别的火

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特别的热

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其实简单讲

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如果你给他两套利率政策的话

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他肯定希望在住房市场降息

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同时呢在其他的市场加息

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同时呢在国债市场降息对吧

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如果他能够把它的利率政策拆分来看的话

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全部拆开的话

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他肯定会这么做

222
00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:35,570
但是他做不到嘛

223
00:09:35,570 --> 00:09:37,549
所以他只能说不均衡啊

224
00:09:37,549 --> 00:09:41,629
好呃那么还有就是当没问题

225
00:09:41,629 --> 00:09:43,190
是否讨论过降息的时候

226
00:09:43,190 --> 00:09:44,099
卧室表示说啊

227
00:09:44,099 --> 00:09:46,658
目前有一个降息方案摆在桌面上

228
00:09:46,658 --> 00:09:48,359
但讨论比较少

229
00:09:48,359 --> 00:09:50,438
没有讨论其他的任何方案

230
00:09:50,438 --> 00:09:54,009
没有具体的说明这个方案的方向好

231
00:09:54,009 --> 00:09:55,629
这是握时的讲话

232
00:09:55,629 --> 00:09:57,190
很明显呢也是比较的清楚

233
00:09:57,190 --> 00:09:58,009
也不含糊

234
00:09:58,009 --> 00:10:03,379
那么还有一个重大的变化是未来的政策改革

235
00:10:04,519 --> 00:10:05,480
沃什还宣布

236
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,779
他将组建五个工作组

237
00:10:07,779 --> 00:10:11,309
分别审议以下的五个议题

238
00:10:11,309 --> 00:10:12,730
首先是沟通

239
00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:14,929
预计会提出改革方案

240
00:10:14,929 --> 00:10:18,470
包括对标准执行计划sap的改革

241
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,779
第二是资产负债表审查

242
00:10:21,779 --> 00:10:24,860
充足准备金制度的益处和风险

243
00:10:24,860 --> 00:10:27,919
以及资产负债表的构成

244
00:10:28,279 --> 00:10:31,240
第三数据来源的使用

245
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:32,279
这个非常重要

246
00:10:32,279 --> 00:10:35,720
考虑新的数据来源和方法论的变革

247
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,460
就是说现在呢握时仍旧强调要依赖数据

248
00:10:40,460 --> 00:10:43,269
但数据来源和怎么用

249
00:10:43,269 --> 00:10:44,450
它可能要变

250
00:10:44,450 --> 00:10:46,429
这就是一个很重大的变化了啊

251
00:10:46,429 --> 00:10:48,350
因为以前我们看我们再看

252
00:10:48,350 --> 00:10:50,470
包括像PCE数据对吧

253
00:10:50,470 --> 00:10:53,090
特别是美联储关注的核心通胀指标

254
00:10:53,090 --> 00:10:54,580
是核心PCE

255
00:10:54,580 --> 00:10:57,379
那么核心PC呢在其他的一些组成部分里边

256
00:10:57,379 --> 00:10:58,440
包括像CPI

257
00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,279
包括像PPI的部分组成部分

258
00:11:00,279 --> 00:11:01,120
包括服务业

259
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,710
是那个那个CPI通胀都有一部分的来源

260
00:11:05,710 --> 00:11:07,860
会去给核心PC做贡献

261
00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:10,500
那未来如果改革这一块怎么变

262
00:11:10,500 --> 00:11:11,200
怎么计价

263
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,500
那么市场要重新翻过来啊

264
00:11:13,500 --> 00:11:16,690
重新跟随他们的步伐好

265
00:11:16,690 --> 00:11:19,549
还有就是生产力和就业调查

266
00:11:19,549 --> 00:11:23,190
人工智能和其他通用技术的应用范围

267
00:11:23,190 --> 00:11:26,200
对于生产率以及生产效率

268
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,019
还有这个人员失业率

269
00:11:28,019 --> 00:11:30,059
未来的这个生产就业情况

270
00:11:30,059 --> 00:11:30,740
这很重要

271
00:11:30,740 --> 00:11:35,009
因为这是一个新的一个一个工具的变化

272
00:11:35,470 --> 00:11:37,110
还有美联储的通胀框架

273
00:11:37,110 --> 00:11:40,089
将研究通胀的驱动因素

274
00:11:40,089 --> 00:11:41,889
就是可能分开研究了啊

275
00:11:41,889 --> 00:11:43,249
更细致的研究了啊

276
00:11:43,249 --> 00:11:45,340
说不定未来就像我刚才说的

277
00:11:45,340 --> 00:11:48,299
对于通胀的整个框架发生改变之后

278
00:11:48,299 --> 00:11:50,500
2%这个目标要进行改变对吧

279
00:11:50,500 --> 00:11:53,480
他可能提出一些更细致的其他的方法

280
00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,360
但这些东西应该要到今年年底才有

281
00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,059
可能会出现哈

282
00:11:59,059 --> 00:12:00,110
不会太早

283
00:12:00,110 --> 00:12:02,009
所以呢在年底之前

284
00:12:02,009 --> 00:12:05,789
现在仍旧沿用旧的那一套的执行标准

285
00:12:05,789 --> 00:12:08,460
只不过前瞻是没有了

286
00:12:08,460 --> 00:12:12,429
它呢每一次的点阵图大家估计也会逐渐淡化

287
00:12:12,429 --> 00:12:12,909
到年底

288
00:12:12,909 --> 00:12:14,529
很有可能点阵图这个东西就不见了

289
00:12:14,529 --> 00:12:15,710
就消失掉了啊

290
00:12:15,710 --> 00:12:16,799
直接给你撤销掉

291
00:12:16,799 --> 00:12:20,000
那么未来就直接在每一次的议息会议上

292
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:20,620
跟你沟通

293
00:12:20,620 --> 00:12:22,889
现在什么原因干什么怎么样

294
00:12:22,889 --> 00:12:24,529
其实今天呢没有降息啊

295
00:12:24,529 --> 00:12:27,929
包括像总统川普这边有记者问到没降息

296
00:12:27,929 --> 00:12:29,049
你觉得怎么样的时候

297
00:12:29,049 --> 00:12:30,850
他觉得那没降就没降吧好吧

298
00:12:30,850 --> 00:12:31,620
他们没降

299
00:12:31,620 --> 00:12:33,659
那要加息就加吧对吧

300
00:12:33,659 --> 00:12:35,220
现在他也态度也缓和了

301
00:12:35,220 --> 00:12:37,379
因为通胀的情况在这里摆着啊

302
00:12:37,379 --> 00:12:38,100
这个没有办法

303
00:12:38,100 --> 00:12:39,629
其实卧室的做法

304
00:12:39,629 --> 00:12:42,110
我个人现在看起来我觉得没有什么太大问题

305
00:12:42,110 --> 00:12:43,399
就至少明确嘛

306
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:45,480
以前的美联储呢就是不够明确

307
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,399
太含糊

308
00:12:46,399 --> 00:12:47,919
市场呢你上也行

309
00:12:47,919 --> 00:12:50,490
下也行对吧好

310
00:12:50,490 --> 00:12:53,149
那么今天这个美联储的议息会议出来之后啊

311
00:12:53,149 --> 00:12:54,309
整个的框架变化之后

312
00:12:54,309 --> 00:12:56,580
市场呢是一哆嗦

313
00:12:56,580 --> 00:12:58,379
我们看一下这个哆嗦啊

314
00:12:58,379 --> 00:12:59,700
两点声明吧

315
00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:00,960
啪一波对吧

316
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:02,519
两点多多又反弹上去

317
00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:04,820
然后这个地方哎又上去了

318
00:13:04,820 --> 00:13:06,539
然后讲话讲的差不多了

319
00:13:06,539 --> 00:13:07,639
啪又跳水

320
00:13:07,639 --> 00:13:08,519
很明显啊

321
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,360
直到两点钟开始呃

322
00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,580
今天的市场呢说实话刚开始在两点之前

323
00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:21,259
大家它其实没有预计到市场有这么大的反应

324
00:13:21,259 --> 00:13:21,720
对吧

325
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,360
我相信今天大家开盘的走势和看到的情况

326
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,269
估计今天又是平平淡淡的一天

327
00:13:26,269 --> 00:13:27,210
没想到啊

328
00:13:27,210 --> 00:13:28,710
后面是这个平地

329
00:13:28,710 --> 00:13:29,929
一声雷对吧

330
00:13:29,929 --> 00:13:31,860
劈倒一片树啊

331
00:13:31,860 --> 00:13:34,059
嗯今天的情况真的很糟糕

332
00:13:34,059 --> 00:13:36,980
因为纳指100里边下跌81只

333
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:38,639
上涨19只啊

334
00:13:38,639 --> 00:13:40,860
标普里边430只上涨

335
00:13:40,860 --> 00:13:42,870
下跌上涨72只

336
00:13:42,870 --> 00:13:46,110
就算是表现比较好的费城半导体指数

337
00:13:46,110 --> 00:13:48,610
今天其实也刚刚过半的个股上涨

338
00:13:48,610 --> 00:13:50,960
下跌的达到了14只

339
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,039
好这是目前的一个大致的情况啊

340
00:13:54,039 --> 00:13:55,919
今天市场普遍都不行

341
00:13:55,919 --> 00:13:59,419
所以呢呃大家呢大哥别笑

342
00:13:59,419 --> 00:14:00,360
二哥对吧

343
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:01,480
今天大家一起跌

344
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:02,639
是不是就开心一点了

345
00:14:03,419 --> 00:14:05,059
你有每天的评论区

346
00:14:05,059 --> 00:14:06,889
大家我有时候看完以后

347
00:14:06,889 --> 00:14:09,190
我真的是哭笑不得啊

348
00:14:09,190 --> 00:14:11,590
有什么骂微软的

349
00:14:11,590 --> 00:14:13,049
骂meta的

350
00:14:13,049 --> 00:14:16,730
呃现在最近两天又开始骂骂这个骂谷歌的了

351
00:14:16,730 --> 00:14:17,330
也开始了

352
00:14:17,330 --> 00:14:18,009
前两天骂的多

353
00:14:18,009 --> 00:14:19,190
这两天好一点啊

354
00:14:19,190 --> 00:14:22,259
然后呢这个骂软件的

355
00:14:22,259 --> 00:14:24,720
然后反正吧各种吧

356
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,039
额这个只要只要是下跌的

357
00:14:27,039 --> 00:14:30,000
最近在跌的或者一直在跌的都不好过啊

358
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,200
今天可能大家要骂亚马逊了

359
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,600
哈哈我猜啊我还没看评论区啊

360
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,730
我估计今天可能会要骂亚马逊了啊

361
00:14:36,730 --> 00:14:38,649
哦还英伟达最近没怎么骂

362
00:14:38,649 --> 00:14:39,649
前段时间骂的很

363
00:14:39,649 --> 00:14:40,409
最近反弹了

364
00:14:40,409 --> 00:14:42,049
今天又回去横盘了

365
00:14:42,049 --> 00:14:43,649
今天估计也逃不掉啊

366
00:14:43,649 --> 00:14:45,490
呃你谁让你市值大呢

367
00:14:45,490 --> 00:14:46,389
你就承受呗

368
00:14:46,389 --> 00:14:48,129
大家骂你就听着啊

369
00:14:48,129 --> 00:14:50,210
好呃挺有意思的

370
00:14:50,210 --> 00:14:52,529
呃那么今天的市场呢都是这样啊

371
00:14:52,529 --> 00:14:54,350
大家都一起的往下跳啊

372
00:14:54,350 --> 00:14:56,970
但是跳的位置给大家简单看一下就知道了

373
00:14:56,970 --> 00:14:59,450
其实你别说AMD啊

374
00:14:59,450 --> 00:15:00,230
今天是涨了

375
00:15:00,230 --> 00:15:02,129
你你说他行情很好吧

376
00:15:02,129 --> 00:15:03,330
也不算吧对吧

377
00:15:03,330 --> 00:15:06,379
昨天一口气闷头一口气七个点对吧

378
00:15:06,379 --> 00:15:07,458
都不知道发生了什么

379
00:15:07,458 --> 00:15:08,658
直接就崩就下来了

380
00:15:08,658 --> 00:15:12,070
今天又是下来了一个点呃

381
00:15:12,070 --> 00:15:13,070
上上去了一个点

382
00:15:13,070 --> 00:15:15,029
但是走的也并不好啊对吧

383
00:15:15,029 --> 00:15:19,669
然后呢呃整个的盘后大家说诶怎么又涨了

384
00:15:19,669 --> 00:15:20,789
谈后呃

385
00:15:20,789 --> 00:15:22,070
美国总统川普不是说嘛

386
00:15:22,070 --> 00:15:23,870
他已经签署了协议啊

387
00:15:23,870 --> 00:15:26,009
在这个凡尔赛宫签的

388
00:15:26,009 --> 00:15:29,470
所以整个的纳指期货又像个神经病一样

389
00:15:29,470 --> 00:15:30,610
你看看期货啊

390
00:15:30,610 --> 00:15:33,399
那期货纳指期货又像神经病一样

391
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:35,000
直接又涨了一个多点

392
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,600
所以所有的科技股又上去了

393
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,860
所以你说这什么市场呢对吧

394
00:15:39,860 --> 00:15:42,779
如果民间以色列又开火了对吧

395
00:15:42,779 --> 00:15:44,379
连协议的第一条都保证不了

396
00:15:44,379 --> 00:15:46,960
那市场又会如何应对呢

397
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,230
咱们啊这些短线的东西呢

398
00:15:49,230 --> 00:15:50,990
咱们等他们玩好好吧

399
00:15:50,990 --> 00:15:54,110
大家呢就不要每天的短线怎么怎么办

400
00:15:54,110 --> 00:15:54,950
今天为什么

401
00:15:54,950 --> 00:15:58,090
明天为什么对他们都不知道为什么对吧

402
00:15:58,090 --> 00:15:59,250
他们连协议都不知道

403
00:15:59,250 --> 00:16:00,309
为什么怎么签的

404
00:16:00,309 --> 00:16:02,120
大家都不知道为什么啊

405
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:02,840
等他们玩好

406
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,240
咱们再玩好不好啊

407
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,000
咱们的短线上别看的那么短啊

408
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:07,200
因为最近这个动荡期

409
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,068
大家都都希望都希望冷静一点

410
00:16:10,068 --> 00:16:11,788
我把位置还是给大家看一下

411
00:16:13,469 --> 00:16:15,889
MD情况就这么个情况吧

412
00:16:15,889 --> 00:16:17,090
就是新高往上对吧

413
00:16:17,090 --> 00:16:18,210
以490为支撑嘛

414
00:16:18,210 --> 00:16:19,570
之前打过了这个没花

415
00:16:19,570 --> 00:16:20,210
没得说啊

416
00:16:20,210 --> 00:16:21,330
这就是一个新高看法

417
00:16:21,330 --> 00:16:22,789
之前又打过一个558

418
00:16:22,789 --> 00:16:24,950
也没有跌破任何地方

419
00:16:25,649 --> 00:16:27,769
英伟达那有变化吗

420
00:16:27,769 --> 00:16:28,570
没变化吗

421
00:16:28,570 --> 00:16:29,769
这下方还是这个地方

422
00:16:29,769 --> 00:16:30,529
涨了两天

423
00:16:30,529 --> 00:16:31,490
又跌了两天

424
00:16:31,490 --> 00:16:32,370
回到原地吗

425
00:16:32,370 --> 00:16:33,929
横盘啊

426
00:16:34,899 --> 00:16:36,299
meta一样啊

427
00:16:36,299 --> 00:16:37,059
涨了两天

428
00:16:37,059 --> 00:16:39,600
跌到两天回到原地对吧

429
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,389
三天原地不动啊

430
00:16:41,389 --> 00:16:45,139
你要是三天你睡了三天起来或看三天球对吧

431
00:16:45,139 --> 00:16:46,139
那你回来一看

432
00:16:46,139 --> 00:16:47,458
发现诶价格没动啊

433
00:16:47,458 --> 00:16:48,558
没错过行情啊

434
00:16:48,558 --> 00:16:50,619
这个就跟那个看球一样对吧

435
00:16:50,619 --> 00:16:51,219
零比零

436
00:16:51,219 --> 00:16:52,778
这个和没看一样对吧

437
00:16:52,778 --> 00:16:54,620
哈哈好

438
00:16:54,620 --> 00:16:56,519
然后亚马逊

439
00:16:57,580 --> 00:16:59,980
然后呢是一样的情况啊

440
00:17:01,299 --> 00:17:03,139
跌到了237

441
00:17:03,139 --> 00:17:06,720
已经到了好的地方了对吧

442
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,380
但这个219跌破以后

443
00:17:08,380 --> 00:17:09,619
会阶段性的又走弱了

444
00:17:09,619 --> 00:17:10,779
又走到了又往下走一些

445
00:17:10,779 --> 00:17:11,819
再看一下它的前端估值

446
00:17:11,819 --> 00:17:14,019
给大家看一下前南估值

447
00:17:14,019 --> 00:17:16,559
实际上现在的价格是呃

448
00:17:16,559 --> 00:17:19,398
在今年来讲不算高啊

449
00:17:19,398 --> 00:17:20,509
今年不算高

450
00:17:20,509 --> 00:17:21,970
而且放到明年不算高

451
00:17:21,970 --> 00:17:24,069
今年接近前瞻中位呃

452
00:17:24,069 --> 00:17:28,630
前瞻高位明年27年是比中位低不算高对吧

453
00:17:28,630 --> 00:17:30,549
这是亚马逊的情况

454
00:17:30,549 --> 00:17:36,549
谷歌谷歌的情况也是回到362

455
00:17:36,549 --> 00:17:39,680
但实际上你要往下走才是比较好的

456
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,180
上方还是略显激进啊

457
00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:42,440
略显激进了一点

458
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,000
之前给大家写过的这个地方好

459
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,000
微软破位之后走震荡

460
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,759
375往下啊

461
00:17:49,759 --> 00:17:51,039
大家预留仓位的

462
00:17:51,039 --> 00:17:53,469
这马上还差几块钱就到了

463
00:17:53,469 --> 00:17:54,588
大家看清楚啊

464
00:17:54,588 --> 00:17:58,470
上方的情况跟这里的情况是完全不同的

465
00:17:58,630 --> 00:18:00,049
全部是强支撑

466
00:18:00,049 --> 00:18:02,240
而且看一下前端估值

467
00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:05,779
405453451605啊

468
00:18:05,779 --> 00:18:07,319
6月份的财年哈

469
00:18:07,319 --> 00:18:08,299
请大家看看

470
00:18:08,299 --> 00:18:09,940
好记好二好

471
00:18:09,940 --> 00:18:11,160
这是往下的

472
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,140
然后苹果

473
00:18:15,038 --> 00:18:16,318
基本上没动啊

474
00:18:16,318 --> 00:18:18,078
281突破的右侧之后

475
00:18:18,078 --> 00:18:19,239
这个地方做了个小头

476
00:18:19,239 --> 00:18:21,439
这是个震荡小震荡区域啊

477
00:18:21,439 --> 00:18:22,999
基本上没有行情没动

478
00:18:22,999 --> 00:18:24,970
特斯拉呃

479
00:18:24,970 --> 00:18:25,829
之前给大家讲过

480
00:18:25,829 --> 00:18:27,630
目前不是很好的波段机会

481
00:18:27,630 --> 00:18:29,309
因为短线窗口关闭之后

482
00:18:29,309 --> 00:18:30,910
上方形成的压力较大

483
00:18:30,910 --> 00:18:33,358
要428过了

484
00:18:33,358 --> 00:18:36,618
你才有更强的上看的可能性

485
00:18:36,618 --> 00:18:38,919
要不然你就使劲儿等等什么呢

486
00:18:38,919 --> 00:18:43,019
等多回撤一些到下方368啊

487
00:18:43,019 --> 00:18:44,559
就这个地方我离得太开了

488
00:18:44,559 --> 00:18:45,319
368

489
00:18:45,319 --> 00:18:46,450
这是个下眼

490
00:18:46,450 --> 00:18:47,529
这不是震荡下沿吗

491
00:18:47,529 --> 00:18:48,549
这不震荡上沿吗

492
00:18:48,549 --> 00:18:50,029
越靠近下沿波段

493
00:18:50,029 --> 00:18:52,089
你越划算啊

494
00:18:52,369 --> 00:18:56,109
好然后SPACEX等会最后讲啊

495
00:18:56,109 --> 00:18:57,750
我再给大家讲两个重点啊

496
00:18:57,750 --> 00:19:00,630
就是关于SRG和NETFLIX这两只股票

497
00:19:00,630 --> 00:19:02,269
大家可能现在比较的着急

498
00:19:02,269 --> 00:19:07,109
就是到底这两只股票呃是不是要建仓了呀

499
00:19:07,109 --> 00:19:08,609
还是说现在不能买了呀

500
00:19:08,609 --> 00:19:10,609
还是他们出了什么基本面的问题啊

501
00:19:10,609 --> 00:19:13,009
我给大家看一下啊

502
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,680
首先我们看一下SG

503
00:19:18,519 --> 00:19:19,920
ISIG的情况啊

504
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,180
我们在很早之前讲他的时候哈

505
00:19:22,180 --> 00:19:24,519
跟大家讲的非常的清楚

506
00:19:24,519 --> 00:19:26,059
他的机会是什么

507
00:19:26,059 --> 00:19:26,990
风险是什么

508
00:19:26,990 --> 00:19:28,769
机会是这支股票呢

509
00:19:28,769 --> 00:19:29,690
长期来看

510
00:19:29,690 --> 00:19:32,210
它是我认为在美股市场中

511
00:19:32,210 --> 00:19:34,659
两只不会套人的股票之一

512
00:19:34,659 --> 00:19:37,538
一个是做光刻机的阿斯麦

513
00:19:37,538 --> 00:19:41,679
另一个就是做达芬奇手术系统的ISRG

514
00:19:41,679 --> 00:19:43,298
长线看不套人啊

515
00:19:43,298 --> 00:19:46,818
长线不套人不代表短线你买高了不套你

516
00:19:46,818 --> 00:19:47,499
对不对

517
00:19:47,499 --> 00:19:48,869
这是两个问题啊

518
00:19:48,869 --> 00:19:53,289
长线不套人的意思是它的业绩增长有保证

519
00:19:53,289 --> 00:19:54,750
行业的护城河

520
00:19:54,750 --> 00:20:00,440
比较的深变数只在于增速的快慢而已对吧

521
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,880
比如说有一些新的竞争对手赶上来

522
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:08,039
能够确实比方说有一些觉得这个产品太贵了

523
00:20:08,039 --> 00:20:09,299
找一些替代医疗

524
00:20:09,299 --> 00:20:13,109
那么会让他有些份额减少的情况

525
00:20:13,109 --> 00:20:15,190
但是我们一直在强调

526
00:20:15,190 --> 00:20:19,849
在医疗领域和看病有关的这件事情上

527
00:20:19,849 --> 00:20:22,829
但凡你能负担得起的人啊

528
00:20:22,829 --> 00:20:23,490
我们说的是

529
00:20:23,490 --> 00:20:25,440
但凡你能负担得起的人

530
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,359
你不可能退而求其次

531
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,440
你一定选择最好的设备

532
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,819
特别是当危及到你的生命安全的时候

533
00:20:32,819 --> 00:20:34,039
你说哎呀

534
00:20:34,039 --> 00:20:37,059
这个我这个这个东西必须要用这个做手术

535
00:20:37,059 --> 00:20:38,400
它的危险性小一点

536
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,380
术后能够更好一点

537
00:20:40,380 --> 00:20:43,250
那另外一个呢说反正都是开刀啊

538
00:20:43,250 --> 00:20:44,569
怎么开不是开呢对吧

539
00:20:44,569 --> 00:20:46,410
那我这个手重点轻点

540
00:20:46,410 --> 00:20:47,730
这机器人精确点

541
00:20:47,730 --> 00:20:49,250
这个少点问题不大

542
00:20:49,250 --> 00:20:50,589
后面多躺俩月

543
00:20:50,589 --> 00:20:52,309
你选哪一个对吧

544
00:20:52,309 --> 00:20:53,369
很简单的道理嘛

545
00:20:53,369 --> 00:20:55,589
这个我们说但凡负担得起的

546
00:20:55,589 --> 00:20:56,650
在医疗领域

547
00:20:56,650 --> 00:20:59,559
药品领域他都是会找好的东西

548
00:20:59,559 --> 00:21:00,740
哪怕贵没关系

549
00:21:00,740 --> 00:21:01,519
他负担得起吗

550
00:21:01,519 --> 00:21:03,019
好这是他的一个逻辑啊

551
00:21:03,019 --> 00:21:04,069
护城河较深

552
00:21:04,069 --> 00:21:06,549
那么估值层面那不行啊

553
00:21:06,549 --> 00:21:07,309
太高了啊

554
00:21:07,309 --> 00:21:10,230
我们一直在讲他的前瞻的PEE的波动

555
00:21:10,230 --> 00:21:12,750
历史上由于一直是非常高的增长

556
00:21:12,750 --> 00:21:14,769
所以非常非常的高

557
00:21:14,769 --> 00:21:17,269
那么你想有好的安全边际

558
00:21:17,269 --> 00:21:20,229
就必须留出足够的空间

559
00:21:20,229 --> 00:21:22,380
让自己在下方有足够的等待时间

560
00:21:22,380 --> 00:21:25,940
有足够的安全边际去应对它的增速

561
00:21:25,940 --> 00:21:29,930
下滑的逆风期带来的这种在低位的震荡

562
00:21:29,930 --> 00:21:31,509
你必须要有这个准备

563
00:21:31,509 --> 00:21:34,089
你不能指望他一直都是高高在上

564
00:21:34,089 --> 00:21:37,349
这就是为什么这只股票我持仓之后

565
00:21:37,349 --> 00:21:38,710
它是我的持仓股啊

566
00:21:38,710 --> 00:21:39,390
排在最末

567
00:21:39,390 --> 00:21:43,619
因为持仓最少好多年都没有买的原因对吧

568
00:21:43,619 --> 00:21:44,720
没有买上的原因

569
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,559
因为他一直是很高

570
00:21:46,559 --> 00:21:47,980
很快冲的很快

571
00:21:47,980 --> 00:21:49,500
那给不了我低买的机会

572
00:21:49,500 --> 00:21:50,900
那就不买啊对吧

573
00:21:50,900 --> 00:21:52,388
那不买怎么办

574
00:21:52,388 --> 00:21:54,969
不买就等等到合理的时候可以买

575
00:21:54,969 --> 00:21:56,128
那什么时候合理呢

576
00:21:56,128 --> 00:21:57,628
卖卖的机会不就来了吗

577
00:21:57,628 --> 00:21:59,769
我们说405以下

578
00:21:59,769 --> 00:22:05,230
405以下有非常强的止跌形态才去买

579
00:22:05,230 --> 00:22:07,509
像今天这个情况没有任何形态

580
00:22:07,509 --> 00:22:08,450
咱们不买啊

581
00:22:08,450 --> 00:22:09,789
我是不会买的好吧

582
00:22:09,789 --> 00:22:11,269
我再次强调啊

583
00:22:11,269 --> 00:22:15,380
我要买必须要等到非常强烈的止跌形态

584
00:22:15,380 --> 00:22:18,299
它如果没有形态都跌穿了320了

585
00:22:18,299 --> 00:22:19,630
那我就一直都不买

586
00:22:19,630 --> 00:22:20,430
讲清楚啊

587
00:22:20,430 --> 00:22:21,789
我们今天讲清楚这个事情

588
00:22:21,789 --> 00:22:25,179
我没有挂单去买这个买去买它也不像去抢它

589
00:22:25,179 --> 00:22:26,499
我也跟大家讲了很多次

590
00:22:26,499 --> 00:22:27,829
不要抢不要抢

591
00:22:27,829 --> 00:22:30,769
因为以前你抢老是抢完他就上去了

592
00:22:30,769 --> 00:22:32,470
但总有抢完他不上去的时候

593
00:22:32,470 --> 00:22:33,990
这不就抢完他没上去吗

594
00:22:33,990 --> 00:22:35,420
再次告诉大家

595
00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:36,460
不要抢啊

596
00:22:36,460 --> 00:22:37,220
不要去抢啊

597
00:22:37,220 --> 00:22:39,319
因为这支股票你越抢

598
00:22:39,319 --> 00:22:40,299
我跟你讲

599
00:22:40,299 --> 00:22:43,150
因为它的前端估值增速在这里摆着并不高

600
00:22:43,150 --> 00:22:45,670
中两位数这么高的前NPE

601
00:22:45,670 --> 00:22:47,569
你不给一点容错率吗

602
00:22:47,569 --> 00:22:49,150
仓位你还是要给的啊

603
00:22:49,150 --> 00:22:50,799
除非你说时间上无所谓

604
00:22:50,799 --> 00:22:52,119
那那也无所谓啊

605
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:52,920
那你放上几年

606
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:54,039
那肯定不肯定不会套

607
00:22:54,039 --> 00:22:54,929
你好吧

608
00:22:54,929 --> 00:22:58,368
这个价格肯定不是什么这个很高的价格

609
00:22:58,368 --> 00:22:59,528
放你放上一年吧

610
00:22:59,528 --> 00:23:00,288
不说多了

611
00:23:00,288 --> 00:23:01,409
放个一年时间

612
00:23:01,409 --> 00:23:03,109
他都不是很高的价格啊

613
00:23:03,109 --> 00:23:04,950
好这是SRG

614
00:23:06,710 --> 00:23:10,589
还有一个是这个NETFLIX也是啊

615
00:23:10,589 --> 00:23:13,529
77以下到没到到了

616
00:23:13,529 --> 00:23:15,109
买不买不买

617
00:23:15,109 --> 00:23:16,289
为什么不买

618
00:23:16,289 --> 00:23:19,349
因为没有止跌形态一直在跌

619
00:23:19,349 --> 00:23:20,890
昨天这么大根大阴线

620
00:23:20,890 --> 00:23:22,509
把之前的这个平台跌破了

621
00:23:22,509 --> 00:23:24,420
如果你昨天去还去建仓

622
00:23:24,420 --> 00:23:26,200
没有意义啊对吧

623
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,388
昨天也没有任何的好的形态啊

624
00:23:28,388 --> 00:23:30,628
昨天你看整个反弹呃

625
00:23:30,628 --> 00:23:32,628
昨天啊给大家看昨天的情况

626
00:23:32,628 --> 00:23:33,969
你看昨天的分时图

627
00:23:33,969 --> 00:23:36,179
它它有什么像样的反弹吗

628
00:23:36,179 --> 00:23:37,778
连上方跌破的这个平台

629
00:23:37,778 --> 00:23:38,858
他高点都上不去

630
00:23:38,858 --> 00:23:40,318
这里这里都上不去

631
00:23:40,318 --> 00:23:41,499
你为什么要去抢它呢

632
00:23:41,499 --> 00:23:44,869
没有必要抢吗啊所以很多朋友问这两只股票

633
00:23:44,869 --> 00:23:46,589
我就好久没讲了

634
00:23:46,589 --> 00:23:49,029
所以就把它拿出来跟大家单独过一下

635
00:23:49,029 --> 00:23:54,190
必须也是77以下的强止跌形态才去买

636
00:23:54,190 --> 00:23:55,369
为什么呢

637
00:23:55,369 --> 00:23:58,650
因为26年的前瞻中卫在80块

638
00:23:58,650 --> 00:24:00,380
实际上他现在就是个中卫

639
00:24:00,380 --> 00:24:02,400
27年的前瞻77块

640
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,140
下限是要控制在77以快呃

641
00:24:05,140 --> 00:24:05,819
77以下

642
00:24:05,819 --> 00:24:08,079
特别是初次建仓的

643
00:24:08,079 --> 00:24:10,079
你不是说有很低的成本的

644
00:24:10,079 --> 00:24:10,960
如果你成本很低

645
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:11,779
无所谓吧对吧

646
00:24:11,779 --> 00:24:12,839
但你是初次建仓的

647
00:24:12,839 --> 00:24:13,650
就不能这样

648
00:24:13,650 --> 00:24:17,190
那你就得在你刚开始建仓的时候相对保险一点

649
00:24:17,190 --> 00:24:19,230
免得碰到一些意外的情况

650
00:24:19,230 --> 00:24:20,690
又不知所措啊

651
00:24:20,690 --> 00:24:22,890
同一个这个亏不能吃几次吗

652
00:24:22,890 --> 00:24:23,349
是不是

653
00:24:23,349 --> 00:24:24,970
所以要保守一点啊

654
00:24:24,970 --> 00:24:27,710
特别市场现在你说它算是在高位吗

655
00:24:27,710 --> 00:24:29,829
指数肯定不算在低位嘛对吧

656
00:24:29,829 --> 00:24:31,269
我们虽然说不说最高

657
00:24:31,269 --> 00:24:33,549
没有说在7800点和8000点了

658
00:24:33,549 --> 00:24:35,269
但他绝对算不上太低

659
00:24:35,269 --> 00:24:36,309
中不溜对吧

660
00:24:36,309 --> 00:24:37,809
中不溜偏上的位置

661
00:24:37,809 --> 00:24:41,059
所以稍微的有点耐心啊

662
00:24:41,059 --> 00:24:42,000
稍微有点耐心

663
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,420
反正我是我是这样的啊

664
00:24:43,420 --> 00:24:46,420
我这个NETFLIX也不是我的必须要建仓的股票

665
00:24:46,420 --> 00:24:47,559
没有好的止跌形态

666
00:24:47,559 --> 00:24:48,160
没有好的机会

667
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:49,079
我是不买的啊

668
00:24:49,079 --> 00:24:49,980
有好的机会

669
00:24:49,980 --> 00:24:51,180
有好的止跌形态

670
00:24:51,180 --> 00:24:52,079
我就买一点

671
00:24:52,079 --> 00:24:54,779
而且呢最多我也只会买4%的一个仓位

672
00:24:54,779 --> 00:24:55,700
买的不多好吧

673
00:24:55,700 --> 00:24:59,359
没有太多仓位分配给他好呃

674
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,420
然后呢再来讲一下SPACEX的一个新赌场

675
00:25:05,579 --> 00:25:09,059
space x呢我们这几天呢一直在跟踪他的情况啊

676
00:25:09,059 --> 00:25:11,819
因为这几天每天都有一些新的状况出现

677
00:25:16,220 --> 00:25:16,759
对不对

678
00:25:16,759 --> 00:25:18,190
也是个新状况哈

679
00:25:18,190 --> 00:25:21,589
好给大家介绍一下当前的一些东西

680
00:25:21,589 --> 00:25:24,230
还有明天会出现的新的产品

681
00:25:24,549 --> 00:25:30,390
SPACEX呢现在是在只有月期权的情况下

682
00:25:30,390 --> 00:25:32,190
你看现在的期权不是只有月期权吗

683
00:25:32,190 --> 00:25:33,359
大家发现了吧

684
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:34,460
交易量啊

685
00:25:34,460 --> 00:25:37,609
期权的交易量已经非常非常大

686
00:25:37,609 --> 00:25:39,269
已经快赶上大盘了啊

687
00:25:39,269 --> 00:25:41,390
快赶上大盘的交易量了

688
00:25:41,390 --> 00:25:48,549
那么新的赌场周期权周期权明天预计上线啊

689
00:25:48,549 --> 00:25:50,509
明天预计就会上线了

690
00:25:50,509 --> 00:25:53,819
那么这个就会预计期权交易量

691
00:25:53,819 --> 00:25:58,599
还还有散户的参与度可能会进一步的提升啊

692
00:25:58,599 --> 00:26:01,009
可能会更加的大幅波动

693
00:26:01,009 --> 00:26:02,529
振幅也会不小

694
00:26:02,529 --> 00:26:04,648
今天政府13%

695
00:26:04,648 --> 00:26:06,989
今天换手率36%

696
00:26:06,989 --> 00:26:09,548
今天成交略微萎缩了一点

697
00:26:09,548 --> 00:26:10,920
398亿

698
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,859
但仍旧非常的大好

699
00:26:13,859 --> 00:26:15,160
那么今天呢

700
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,329
市场上其实出现了一些异常交易的大单

701
00:26:19,329 --> 00:26:23,000
能看得出来这些目前卖不了股票的

702
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,039
被禁售的一些大型的持有股票比较多的

703
00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:28,799
无论是大户也好啊

704
00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:30,319
还是机构也好

705
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:32,019
还是什么人也好

706
00:26:32,019 --> 00:26:34,349
现在呢有点被晃晕了

707
00:26:34,349 --> 00:26:36,109
为什么被晃晕了呢

708
00:26:36,109 --> 00:26:39,329
开始采取非常保守的策略了啊

709
00:26:39,329 --> 00:26:41,029
我先讲一下这些大单情况

710
00:26:41,029 --> 00:26:43,069
他怎么个保守法

711
00:26:43,509 --> 00:26:47,230
比如今天呃有一个大笔的交易

712
00:26:47,230 --> 00:26:51,299
是有一位买家呢买了7700份

713
00:26:51,299 --> 00:26:55,059
9月到期的200美元的看跌期权

714
00:26:55,059 --> 00:26:57,640
同时卖出了9月到期的

715
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,559
220美元的看涨期权啊

716
00:27:00,559 --> 00:27:03,559
这是一个非常明确的

717
00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:05,719
当持有了正股

718
00:27:05,719 --> 00:27:08,798
且已经在上涨之后对吧

719
00:27:08,798 --> 00:27:13,359
它已经上涨之后的一个目前的一个领口策略啊

720
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,160
就是卖一买一个put

721
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,640
卖一个call啊

722
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:17,920
还有这么一个情况哈

723
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,700
这是一个领口策略

724
00:27:19,700 --> 00:27:21,449
他持有正股

725
00:27:21,449 --> 00:27:23,888
他不想承担大波动

726
00:27:23,888 --> 00:27:25,489
很多人会说卖个220

727
00:27:25,489 --> 00:27:26,169
那跑到250

728
00:27:26,169 --> 00:27:27,368
那不少赚了吗

729
00:27:27,368 --> 00:27:28,650
没有办法

730
00:27:28,650 --> 00:27:31,009
这个这个东西当少赚这件事情

731
00:27:31,009 --> 00:27:32,769
如果你永远想不明白的时候

732
00:27:32,769 --> 00:27:35,109
那么你永远还是停留在那一步

733
00:27:35,109 --> 00:27:39,180
就是散户入门到刚开始做的那一步

734
00:27:39,180 --> 00:27:41,380
如果你永远觉得自己在踏空

735
00:27:41,380 --> 00:27:42,869
永远觉得少赚

736
00:27:42,869 --> 00:27:45,349
那么你永远就做不了啊

737
00:27:45,349 --> 00:27:47,980
你你想想他买了7700份

738
00:27:47,980 --> 00:27:49,140
他买到SL扣

739
00:27:49,140 --> 00:27:49,900
买到220

740
00:27:49,900 --> 00:27:51,480
他同时持有正股对吧

741
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,660
他只是不想承担大波动而已

742
00:27:53,660 --> 00:27:55,900
他用一个非常保守的策略承担

743
00:27:55,900 --> 00:27:57,799
这边是承担下跌的啊

744
00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:00,900
他担心下跌的他这么一个情况

745
00:28:00,900 --> 00:28:05,730
那么他之前还开了一份2万7000份的

746
00:28:05,730 --> 00:28:07,190
9月到期的

747
00:28:07,190 --> 00:28:09,740
205美元的看跌期权

748
00:28:09,740 --> 00:28:13,519
和225美元的看涨期权的领口期权

749
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:15,700
同样持有正股的情况下

750
00:28:15,700 --> 00:28:18,769
那么同样超过两百两百二十五的话

751
00:28:18,769 --> 00:28:19,730
他又少赚钱了对吧

752
00:28:19,730 --> 00:28:21,769
在你看起来他要少赚几十个亿

753
00:28:21,769 --> 00:28:22,490
没办法

754
00:28:22,490 --> 00:28:24,420
那那他那他不该他赚呗

755
00:28:24,420 --> 00:28:25,259
没那个命呗

756
00:28:25,259 --> 00:28:27,500
他那那他就不该他赚嘛对吧

757
00:28:27,500 --> 00:28:30,409
活该他只是他只持有几百亿的资金

758
00:28:30,409 --> 00:28:32,328
所以这种东西没法讲

759
00:28:32,328 --> 00:28:32,969
就跟大家

760
00:28:32,969 --> 00:28:34,509
这是一个知识的普及

761
00:28:34,509 --> 00:28:36,929
当你永远想不明白

762
00:28:36,929 --> 00:28:41,220
当你把少赚永远当成你的第一要务的时候

763
00:28:41,220 --> 00:28:44,220
那么其实你就离得还很远很远啊

764
00:28:44,220 --> 00:28:46,940
你就永远没有办法像掌握他那么大资金

765
00:28:46,940 --> 00:28:48,339
能够做这些事情啊

766
00:28:48,339 --> 00:28:49,750
你就做不了

767
00:28:49,750 --> 00:28:50,630
好呃

768
00:28:50,630 --> 00:28:51,789
那么他这个情况呢

769
00:28:51,789 --> 00:28:55,019
其实又是一个在连续两天开的都比较的多啊

770
00:28:55,019 --> 00:28:56,940
这个主要是应对

771
00:28:56,940 --> 00:29:00,059
8月20号就是IPO后的大概70天吧

772
00:29:00,059 --> 00:29:02,960
第一个首个锁定的这个交易期

773
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:03,920
我们之前写过啊

774
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:09,039
就是70天的这个锁定的这个解禁的情况好吧

775
00:29:09,039 --> 00:29:13,279
所以呢这个就是SPACEX的一些新的情况

776
00:29:13,279 --> 00:29:17,269
明天的期权有新的一些开仓会出现

777
00:29:17,269 --> 00:29:20,628
那有一些新的这种期权吧

778
00:29:20,628 --> 00:29:23,628
周期权出现之后的成交量会更加的直接

779
00:29:23,628 --> 00:29:26,450
因为很多朋友是喜欢做末日期权的对吧

780
00:29:26,450 --> 00:29:28,750
他是喜欢赌最后的涨跌的

781
00:29:28,750 --> 00:29:33,000
所以末日期权成为了现在很多高波动性股票的

782
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:34,690
一个怎么说呢

783
00:29:34,690 --> 00:29:35,769
一种干扰啊

784
00:29:35,769 --> 00:29:37,289
已经成为极大的一个干扰了

785
00:29:37,289 --> 00:29:38,589
所以在这种情况下

786
00:29:38,589 --> 00:29:40,829
space x能走成什么样子啊

787
00:29:40,829 --> 00:29:42,190
确实很难讲

788
00:29:42,190 --> 00:29:44,049
今天走破了200

789
00:29:44,049 --> 00:29:44,630
对不对

790
00:29:44,630 --> 00:29:46,440
走破了200下

791
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:47,339
昨天我们说还讲过

792
00:29:47,339 --> 00:29:48,900
下面是一百九一百八

793
00:29:48,900 --> 00:29:50,859
现在的情况偏向空投啊

794
00:29:50,859 --> 00:29:52,500
空投优势占优了

795
00:29:52,500 --> 00:29:53,319
占优了

796
00:29:53,319 --> 00:29:55,259
他因为没有在220

797
00:29:55,259 --> 00:29:57,200
但是呢明天还要看开盘情况

798
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,150
因为开盘它可以波动很大啊

799
00:30:00,150 --> 00:30:01,549
特别是在临近中午的时候

800
00:30:01,549 --> 00:30:03,450
你看一下它更靠近哪一边

801
00:30:03,450 --> 00:30:05,529
是更靠近200

802
00:30:05,529 --> 00:30:07,589
往上220

803
00:30:07,589 --> 00:30:09,289
210往上210

804
00:30:09,289 --> 00:30:11,650
还是更靠近180对吧

805
00:30:11,650 --> 00:30:13,710
你这两个地方你还要你还要去看一下呢

806
00:30:13,710 --> 00:30:14,789
我们一百九一百八嘛

807
00:30:14,789 --> 00:30:17,109
上方有一个200呃

808
00:30:17,109 --> 00:30:17,910
200那是个put

809
00:30:17,910 --> 00:30:19,470
还有一个210

810
00:30:19,470 --> 00:30:20,819
220呃

811
00:30:20,819 --> 00:30:21,299
230

812
00:30:21,299 --> 00:30:22,660
250和380嘛对吧

813
00:30:22,660 --> 00:30:24,519
这几个是这都是月期权的啊

814
00:30:24,519 --> 00:30:25,980
月期权层面的对吧

815
00:30:25,980 --> 00:30:27,920
就是明天到期嘛

816
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,000
6月份月球权到期

817
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,039
我们看看这个好吧

818
00:30:30,039 --> 00:30:31,559
同时明天周期全上线之后

819
00:30:31,559 --> 00:30:32,920
未来呢有些新的状况

820
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,339
我再给大家做研究啊

821
00:30:34,339 --> 00:30:35,140
就现在的情况

822
00:30:35,140 --> 00:30:36,839
今天是一个明显的

823
00:30:36,839 --> 00:30:38,380
我们往下去噶的啊

824
00:30:38,380 --> 00:30:41,099
我们说伽马伽马几号的一个双向波动嘛

825
00:30:41,099 --> 00:30:42,079
一个双向挤压

826
00:30:42,079 --> 00:30:44,420
这次不是说单纯只能挤多啊

827
00:30:44,420 --> 00:30:45,440
也可以挤空啊

828
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:46,579
那么往下挤空

829
00:30:46,579 --> 00:30:50,440
同样也是一个挤压下行的一个大波动的出现

830
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,359
所以关注一下190这个位置啊

831
00:30:53,359 --> 00:30:54,799
因为现在190也存在一些

832
00:30:54,799 --> 00:30:56,679
还有180这两个关口

833
00:30:56,679 --> 00:31:01,479
看一看明天SPACEX能不能守住180块钱是吧

834
00:31:01,479 --> 00:31:02,479
这个比较关键的啊

835
00:31:02,479 --> 00:31:05,349
明天看守不守得住180块钱好

836
00:31:05,349 --> 00:31:05,829
这个呢

837
00:31:05,829 --> 00:31:06,710
就是今天带给大家

838
00:31:06,710 --> 00:31:09,750
关于这个市场的一些更新的解读啊

839
00:31:09,750 --> 00:31:12,240
今天东西呢因为我是零零散散呃

840
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:13,799
基本上是看到哪儿讲到哪儿啊

841
00:31:13,799 --> 00:31:15,980
可能大家听起来有点怪怪的是吧

842
00:31:15,980 --> 00:31:18,150
今天这个比较放松

843
00:31:18,150 --> 00:31:19,549
随随便便讲一讲啊

844
00:31:19,549 --> 00:31:21,349
时间可能要讲的比较长了

845
00:31:21,349 --> 00:31:22,430
讲了30多分钟了

846
00:31:22,430 --> 00:31:23,390
那也差不多了啊

847
00:31:23,390 --> 00:31:24,609
今天那就这样吧

848
00:31:24,609 --> 00:31:28,109
啊如果大家觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

849
00:31:28,109 --> 00:31:32,659
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发

850
00:31:32,659 --> 00:31:33,439
多多点赞

851
00:31:33,439 --> 00:31:34,318
感谢大家啊

852
00:31:34,318 --> 00:31:37,269
纳指期货在上涨

853
00:31:37,269 --> 00:31:38,789
看明天怎么样

854
00:31:38,789 --> 00:31:40,109
35日结算

855
00:31:40,109 --> 00:31:41,269
大家要小心啊

856
00:31:41,269 --> 00:31:42,659
明天是三污日

857
00:31:42,659 --> 00:31:45,558
35日的意思是今天已经有结算开始了

858
00:31:45,558 --> 00:31:47,159
还有没准结算完的

859
00:31:47,159 --> 00:31:48,499
明天还会继续

860
00:31:48,499 --> 00:31:51,740
所以有一些短期的行情你看不懂的

861
00:31:51,740 --> 00:31:52,980
你就休息啊

862
00:31:52,980 --> 00:31:56,319
也不要找出一定为什么一定行不行

863
00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:58,240
很多都是资金短线的流动

864
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,220
这种短线流动一平仓一开仓

865
00:32:00,220 --> 00:32:01,880
他啪啪啪两边对吧

866
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,619
一推你都不知道为什么

867
00:32:03,619 --> 00:32:04,799
其实他也不知道为什么

868
00:32:04,799 --> 00:32:07,170
他只是完成他的规定动作而已

869
00:32:07,170 --> 00:32:08,529
好那我们今天到这吧

870
00:32:08,529 --> 00:32:11,799
啊咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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