提心吊胆等待明天结果。【2026-05-19】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月19号星期二

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跌幅0.67%

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出现短线调整以来的连续三个小阴线

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5日线和10日线都破位了

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预计指数进入震荡横盘调整的状态

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震荡的幅度有多大

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还不好说得等形态出来

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跌幅0.84%

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短线调整行情涨多了

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技术调整回吐一下

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也没有什么特别的

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趋势上有可能震荡

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但还要再观察

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巨头财报陆续也发布完了

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宏观方面的消息也变数有限

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市场正在找下一个博弈的关键

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股市调整三天

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情绪偏紧张

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可能就是为了明天的这个关键啊

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本周美股最重要的事儿啊

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我估计就是明天英伟达的财报啦

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英伟达将于5月20号收盘后公布一季报

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科技巨头财报的压轴大戏

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每次都是由英伟达来完成

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通过四大云巨头的资本开支增长情况

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可以推测

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数据中心的需求在今年仍将是非常旺盛的

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而数据中心最核心的支出就是AI芯片

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其他科技巨头花钱越多

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就意味着英伟达等半导体公司收到的钱越多

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2026年的全年业绩前景仍将相当乐观

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市场普遍预期

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一季度英伟达的营业收入将接近800亿

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可能会在791亿左右

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如果突破了800亿

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将会大大提振多头的士气

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毛利率预期是75%

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英伟达卖100块钱

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主营成本也就25

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剩下的75块啊

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都是毛利日记

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一季度

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英伟达非GAAP的净利润是431亿

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同比增长82%

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环比增长9%

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路透社一篇简短的分析文章显示

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英伟达在明天盘后业绩影响下

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将产生3500亿美元的价值波动

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要么涨3500亿

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要么跌3500亿

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大约是6.5%

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这个是怎么分析得到的呢

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其实和我昨天利用期权测算的基本是一致

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股票222美元的价格

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最接近的期权行权价就是222.5

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看涨call和看跌的put都按七块钱来测算的话

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加起来就是14块

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14÷222

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大约是6.3%

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同时买入看涨期权和看跌期权时

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股价的涨跌超过6.3%

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这个组合就能盈利

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否则就是亏损的

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这种期权组合叫做买入跨市套利

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其实就是期权投资者愿意为股票价格波动

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堵的区间有多大

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财报公布后涨跌6.3%以内

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都在期权市场用前预测的范围内

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因为英伟达是股王权重大

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如果波动在3500亿

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估计会影响标普指数42个点

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关键它还会带动半导体和AI

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所以合并影响不止42个点

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从这个角度我们也可以发现

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美股市场集中度比较高啦

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权重股绑架了大盘

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目前标普前十大市值的权重股

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影响指数40%左右

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剩下490只个股只影响到60%

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大盘走向越来越多的受到权重股影响

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如果像英伟达这样的大市值股票掉头下跌

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出现像2022年那样的大幅回调的话

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指数的调整可能会比较剧烈

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所以权重股一定要挺住啊

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投资还是要投权重股啊

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明星股

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不然啊

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就投大盘指数

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原因很简单

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权重股涨

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大盘涨

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剩下的几千只股还不一定涨

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那要是权重股跌

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大盘跌

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它们跌10%

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剩下几千只股可能要跌30%

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50%了

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同样的道理

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为什么要投美股

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美国经济强势的话

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全球就跟着增长一点

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美国要是不行

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别人就更惨了

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美股涨了

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其他股市跟着涨一涨

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美股要是崩了

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就会开启24小时

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谁开盘谁股灾的模式啊

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这个在以前是实实在在发生过的

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中东那边到底是谈还是打

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天天消息不一样

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今天川普威胁说

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未来几天内将恢复对伊朗的袭击

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以此推动达成结束战争的协议

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万斯也威胁要恢复空袭

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伊朗则发出信号说

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如果美国再次发动袭击

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将再次打击海湾国家

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目前股市对战争已经脱敏一个多月了

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时间一长

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如果再次开打

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还是会在情绪上打击多头

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出现所谓的避险情绪的

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最近市场上有一个风险正在酝酿

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那就是长期收益率越来越高了

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30年美债的收益率今天继续上涨

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截图截到一个5.178%

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昨天我说到这个事儿

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说100万美元一年可以拿5万的利息

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可以拿30年

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到期还能拿回本金

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节目播出后

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观众们大概提了这么几个问题

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一个比较典型的问题是通胀收益率5%

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通胀扣掉2.5%

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实际收益吸引力不够

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我的观点是

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收益率要和风险一起谈

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美债风险极低

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到期保本

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平时按时收利息

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这样的风险度并不能支持高收益

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再说了五个点的利息

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美国政府借个钱

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利息这么高的话

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川普很快又要开始骂人了

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另有一个观众问道

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怎么买美债啊

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各不相同

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要问一下客服

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我的广告合作方IBK2也能投资美债

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如果债券太多太杂

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那也可以找债券ETF下手

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不过风险还是要提的

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当市场利率继续上升时

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债券的价格是要下跌的

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所谓的保本啊

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是到期才保本

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没到期卖给别人

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那得按市场行情来交易

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市场利率走高

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债券就要下跌

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期限越长的债券跌得越多

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我们在担心通胀

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加息等宏观问题

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但是导致通胀的战争是否要结束

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这个还无法预测

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11月份结束

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贝森特并不急于延长协议

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贝森特今天说

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美国政府并不急于延长11月到期的休战协议

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因为今年晚些时候

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两国还会有两次重要会晤

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到时再续签协议也是可以

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现在宏观数据和前景都不怎么支持降息了

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卧室上台也不可能不看数据贸然降息

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更不用说卧实还可能是一个鹰派

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而且这几个月也没见沃什

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对他的货币政策有什么表态

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感觉还是有点悬的

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美联储主席换人

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股市平均是下跌的

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这个统计是巴克莱银行做的

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说从1930年以来

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一个月

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三个月和半年内平均下跌5%

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12%和16%

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鲍威尔上台后第一年甚至还跌了20%

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上台一年

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大盘跌了快一半啊

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说到原因

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货币政策的走向会出现不确定性

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而美股在不确定性时容易出现避险情绪

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所以平均来看是下跌的

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这次上台的卧实名声在外

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就是一个鹰派

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市场担心鹰派主席通胀反弹就越稳定

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这三个因素叠加起来

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不太可能有货币宽松化的操作啦

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最近美债收益率上行

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市场正在定价

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无风险利率走高

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芝加哥交易所的期权工具也已经没有了

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今年再次降息的概率

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股市的中期走势可能正在积累压力了

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今天谷歌召开了2026年的IO开发者大会

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推出了最新的GEMINI

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3.5模型的flash版本和pro版本

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在这么多个人工智能里面

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我觉得谷歌的是挺先进的了

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3.5flash模型比同行产品更快快了四倍

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原来的AI是一个字儿一个字儿跳出来的

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以后将会秒回

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不用等啊等的3.5pro版本的智能体代理能力

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号称可以替代程序员独立承担一个完整的项目

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谷歌自己有一套强大的生态系统

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本身就难以替代

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今天媒体文章称

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谷歌推出了25年以来搜索功能最大的更新

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难怪伯克希尔在阿贝尔时代最大的下注

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就是谷歌

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谷歌也是涨的蛮多的啦

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这是我在公开账户最早买入的一只股了

228
00:09:35,649 --> 00:09:37,668
从买入后就没有动过

229
00:09:37,668 --> 00:09:39,210
收益率可观

230
00:09:39,210 --> 00:09:40,610
因为涨的多

231
00:09:40,610 --> 00:09:41,909
市值增长了

232
00:09:41,909 --> 00:09:44,750
从轻仓变成了第二重仓股

233
00:09:44,750 --> 00:09:46,990
以前买是因为便宜

234
00:09:46,990 --> 00:09:48,250
PE很低

235
00:09:48,250 --> 00:09:50,549
但是这两年上涨之后

236
00:09:50,549 --> 00:09:51,950
估值也上去了

237
00:09:51,950 --> 00:09:54,450
目前PE达到了30倍左右

238
00:09:54,450 --> 00:09:55,690
不算便宜

239
00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:57,220
也不是贵的离谱

240
00:09:57,220 --> 00:09:59,320
因为有伯克希尔的背书

241
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,909
谷歌应该还是可以继续持有的

242
00:10:01,909 --> 00:10:04,070
今天我的公开账户截图

243
00:10:04,070 --> 00:10:05,730
亏了3952

244
00:10:05,730 --> 00:10:07,830
净资产21.2万

245
00:10:07,830 --> 00:10:09,809
感觉手上的现金不多

246
00:10:09,809 --> 00:10:12,870
万一股市进入一轮回调行情的话

247
00:10:12,870 --> 00:10:14,950
还没钱补仓了呢

248
00:10:19,269 --> 00:10:20,759
有可能会卖掉一半

249
00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:22,500
特斯拉没有到高点

250
00:10:22,500 --> 00:10:25,240
感觉在半中间可上可下的

251
00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,480
所以还不确定要如何减仓

252
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,720
有可能还会继续持有

253
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,340
有观众让我讲一下

254
00:10:31,340 --> 00:10:36,828
circle c r c l说为什么法案通过了却大跌了

255
00:10:36,828 --> 00:10:39,769
circle这一支股确实妖里妖气的

256
00:10:39,769 --> 00:10:40,849
挺难搞

257
00:10:40,849 --> 00:10:44,940
clarity法案目前在参议院银行委员会通过

258
00:10:44,940 --> 00:10:47,139
关键条款障碍没有了

259
00:10:47,139 --> 00:10:49,840
后续国会批准总统签字

260
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:51,850
这个法案才算通过

261
00:10:51,850 --> 00:10:53,529
不过利好出台

262
00:10:53,529 --> 00:10:54,669
股价却下跌

263
00:10:54,669 --> 00:10:57,610
说明市场对它仍不是非常看好

264
00:10:57,610 --> 00:10:58,940
我查了资料

265
00:10:58,940 --> 00:11:03,159
说是circle在今年8月将与coin base重新谈判

266
00:11:03,159 --> 00:11:04,259
分成协议

267
00:11:04,259 --> 00:11:07,169
这对两家公司都事关重大

268
00:11:07,169 --> 00:11:10,590
coin base与circle的协议3年一签

269
00:11:10,590 --> 00:11:12,990
虽然coin说自动续签

270
00:11:12,990 --> 00:11:17,529
但极有可能在8月份会谈判重新签稳定币

271
00:11:17,529 --> 00:11:20,950
USDC放在coin base平台上的利息收益

272
00:11:20,950 --> 00:11:23,250
是全部归coin base的

273
00:11:23,250 --> 00:11:27,450
平台外的USDC利率收入也要分一半

274
00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:30,600
所以circle啊一直都很虚弱

275
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,539
赚的钱大部分要转给coin base

276
00:11:33,539 --> 00:11:36,100
而coin base靠拿这块收入

277
00:11:36,100 --> 00:11:38,610
也构成了财报收入的关键来源

278
00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:42,909
稳定币的分发渠道比稳定币本身更有护城河

279
00:11:42,909 --> 00:11:45,070
稳定币品种挺多的

280
00:11:45,070 --> 00:11:47,690
平台要推哪一个字儿大一点

281
00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:48,809
放在第一位

282
00:11:48,809 --> 00:11:51,190
哪一个就比较有人用

283
00:11:51,190 --> 00:11:54,250
circle在谈判中的地位还是比较弱势的

284
00:11:54,250 --> 00:11:57,029
要是coin base不用USDC啦

285
00:11:57,029 --> 00:11:58,769
那circle得暴跌

286
00:11:58,769 --> 00:12:01,429
要是收入分成还是这么高

287
00:12:01,429 --> 00:12:04,370
那么circle还得另找赚钱来路

288
00:12:04,370 --> 00:12:07,519
不然也就是在给coin base打工而已

289
00:12:07,519 --> 00:12:10,600
总之circle风险挺大的啊

290
00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,600
也有很多人看好它的前景

291
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,700
但实际上连内部人自己也不相信自己有多好

292
00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:20,419
不然怎么老是不断的有内部人在卖出股票呢

293
00:12:20,419 --> 00:12:24,629
我的观点是要赌未来是有想象空间

294
00:12:24,629 --> 00:12:26,809
但风险也是不小的

295
00:12:26,809 --> 00:12:32,419
有观众问特斯拉股东会抛售特斯拉认购SPACEX吗

296
00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:36,500
特斯拉股东抛售特斯拉去认购SPACEX

297
00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:39,289
这件事的可能性多大呢

298
00:12:39,289 --> 00:12:40,610
有可能啊

299
00:12:40,610 --> 00:12:42,110
股东人那么多

300
00:12:42,110 --> 00:12:43,429
总会有人卖出

301
00:12:43,429 --> 00:12:44,620
有人买入

302
00:12:44,620 --> 00:12:46,200
从投机的角度

303
00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,539
两只股都是马斯克概念股

304
00:12:48,539 --> 00:12:49,799
会互相带动

305
00:12:49,799 --> 00:12:51,679
也会分流资金

306
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:55,759
甚至这样的巨无霸上市不止分流了特斯拉

307
00:12:55,759 --> 00:12:57,399
还分流大盘股

308
00:12:57,399 --> 00:12:59,360
还有一个特别的就是

309
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,039
space在上市15天后就可以加入指数

310
00:13:03,039 --> 00:13:06,000
那些被动基金就要腾出资金来配置

311
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:06,940
这样一来

312
00:13:06,940 --> 00:13:10,220
他们就需要支出指数成份股的其他仓位

313
00:13:10,220 --> 00:13:11,359
来买这个了

314
00:13:11,359 --> 00:13:12,990
这都是分流

315
00:13:13,309 --> 00:13:15,690
如果市场大势不好的时候

316
00:13:15,690 --> 00:13:17,169
超级大盘股上市

317
00:13:17,169 --> 00:13:19,990
会成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草

318
00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:20,990
大事好

319
00:13:20,990 --> 00:13:21,870
那就不会了

320
00:13:21,870 --> 00:13:23,649
发展中解决问题嘛

321
00:13:23,649 --> 00:13:25,789
好今天的节目就分享到这里

322
00:13:25,789 --> 00:13:26,789
感谢大家收看

323
00:13:26,789 --> 00:13:27,970
我们下期节目再见

324
00:13:27,970 --> 00:13:28,720
拜拜

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