以买定卖以始为终

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,560
这人能吃多少饭

2
00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:04,820
就是他这个赚钱啊

3
00:00:05,299 --> 00:00:08,619
就是你从开始你能赚多少钱

4
00:00:08,619 --> 00:00:13,009
取决于说你在做之前就已经注定所有的结果

5
00:00:13,009 --> 00:00:13,970
它并不是变数的

6
00:00:13,970 --> 00:00:15,050
没有变数

7
00:00:15,050 --> 00:00:16,370
举点例子啊

8
00:00:16,370 --> 00:00:19,940
比如说你今天你投一个小盘

9
00:00:21,300 --> 00:00:22,300
这个行业就那么大

10
00:00:22,300 --> 00:00:25,230
比如我做过光电热锅

11
00:00:25,230 --> 00:00:28,969
动物电热锅这个品类呢其实已经是持续了30多年了

12
00:00:28,969 --> 00:00:31,510
这个行业呢就20个亿不到

13
00:00:31,769 --> 00:00:33,490
那你的上限是多少呢

14
00:00:33,490 --> 00:00:36,770
这个行业20个亿全是你的十个点

15
00:00:36,770 --> 00:00:37,939
两个亿

16
00:00:37,939 --> 00:00:39,960
但是这个行业没有十个点利润

17
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:44,100
就这个行业你的上限就两个亿

18
00:00:44,579 --> 00:00:47,229
最多百分百占有率两个亿

19
00:00:47,229 --> 00:00:48,789
所以你永远不可能赚大钱

20
00:00:48,789 --> 00:00:53,170
因为没有一家在多功能电热锅能够占30%的

21
00:00:53,170 --> 00:00:56,299
最多10%给点钱吧

22
00:00:56,299 --> 00:00:57,880
这行业最多达到10%

23
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,049
所以呢你能赚多少钱

24
00:01:01,329 --> 00:01:04,090
是你在做决策的那一刹

25
00:01:04,090 --> 00:01:07,150
那就注定了你最终的结果

26
00:01:07,150 --> 00:01:09,549
你的伤心嗯

27
00:01:09,549 --> 00:01:10,709
这也是一个问题

28
00:01:10,709 --> 00:01:11,030
知道吧

29
00:01:11,030 --> 00:01:16,099
这第二个呢就是嗯你说那这个人你说怎么选

30
00:01:16,099 --> 00:01:16,780
是对的

31
00:01:16,780 --> 00:01:18,920
我觉得没有对与错

32
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,469
你选择了细分意味着高毛利

33
00:01:23,469 --> 00:01:24,450
低竞争

34
00:01:25,450 --> 00:01:26,489
你选择了大品类

35
00:01:26,489 --> 00:01:28,329
意味着低毛利

36
00:01:28,329 --> 00:01:29,510
高竞争

37
00:01:29,790 --> 00:01:31,730
大行业能赚大钱

38
00:01:31,730 --> 00:01:35,269
但是大行业呢也能亏大钱

39
00:01:35,459 --> 00:01:37,019
因为你们都是高手

40
00:01:37,019 --> 00:01:38,739
实际上在我的人生信条里面

41
00:01:38,739 --> 00:01:41,939
我觉得你就不要给高手竞争

42
00:01:42,409 --> 00:01:43,868
就是超级聪明的人

43
00:01:43,868 --> 00:01:44,608
不要给他玩

44
00:01:44,608 --> 00:01:45,289
因为你没别玩

45
00:01:45,289 --> 00:01:47,700
不过他一辈子

46
00:01:47,700 --> 00:01:49,799
你干嘛让自己这么难受啊

47
00:01:49,799 --> 00:01:50,900
这么痛苦啊

48
00:01:50,900 --> 00:01:52,579
是不是这个逻辑

49
00:01:52,900 --> 00:01:54,939
所以走差异化路线

50
00:01:55,799 --> 00:01:57,079
所以赚钱这个事啊

51
00:01:58,079 --> 00:01:59,459
都是选出来的

52
00:01:59,459 --> 00:02:00,519
比你怎么选

53
00:02:00,519 --> 00:02:01,420
你看老段

54
00:02:01,420 --> 00:02:05,269
老段2001年来美国的时候

55
00:02:05,269 --> 00:02:08,599
不过一年销售额才多少十几20个亿

56
00:02:08,599 --> 00:02:10,340
那时候当标王是吧

57
00:02:10,340 --> 00:02:12,479
广告中央电视台标王的时候

58
00:02:12,479 --> 00:02:14,400
他就一年的净利润一个亿

59
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,500
还要借一个亿打广告

60
00:02:16,740 --> 00:02:20,000
那个时候他没想到不给能够一年赚600个亿啊

61
00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:21,219
没有OPPO赚600个亿

62
00:02:21,219 --> 00:02:22,550
没想到呀

63
00:02:22,669 --> 00:02:27,270
但实际上老段在最后200607年的时候

64
00:02:27,270 --> 00:02:29,949
还觉得我们步步高做不到手机的

65
00:02:30,318 --> 00:02:31,878
不过我做不到手机啊

66
00:02:31,878 --> 00:02:33,079
为啥做不到手机呢

67
00:02:33,079 --> 00:02:35,360
是因为BBK手机从03年开始做

68
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,979
到我06年修过高的时候卖不动

69
00:02:37,979 --> 00:02:41,680
为啥东西又贵又丑

70
00:02:42,049 --> 00:02:43,149
性价比又低

71
00:02:43,149 --> 00:02:44,028
谁买你啊

72
00:02:44,028 --> 00:02:45,408
一个翻盖手机卖2000块

73
00:02:46,489 --> 00:02:47,800
那时候TCL

74
00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,159
然后摩托诺基亚还没补

75
00:02:50,159 --> 00:02:50,740
我买的贵

76
00:02:50,740 --> 00:02:52,039
那BBK吗

77
00:02:52,039 --> 00:02:52,379
对啊

78
00:02:52,379 --> 00:02:54,680
你知道什么时候老大家问自己适合做手机吗

79
00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,439
就2008年

80
00:02:56,439 --> 00:02:59,019
OPPO出了一款手机叫A203

81
00:02:59,019 --> 00:03:00,378
然后卖了1000多块钱

82
00:03:00,378 --> 00:03:01,538
1298

83
00:03:01,538 --> 00:03:02,359
1198

84
00:03:02,359 --> 00:03:04,318
卖爆了一款手机

85
00:03:04,318 --> 00:03:06,060
卖了上百万台啊

86
00:03:06,060 --> 00:03:07,099
什么概念啊

87
00:03:08,099 --> 00:03:10,379
一款2G手机成本两三百

88
00:03:10,379 --> 00:03:11,099
卖1000

89
00:03:11,099 --> 00:03:12,169
298

90
00:03:12,169 --> 00:03:14,610
一个公司的净利润加上不算批发价

91
00:03:14,610 --> 00:03:15,229
挣500块

92
00:03:15,229 --> 00:03:18,069
卖上100万还卖挣五个亿

93
00:03:18,069 --> 00:03:19,389
五个亿的净利润

94
00:03:19,389 --> 00:03:20,669
一款手机你都在服务保底十

95
00:03:20,669 --> 00:03:22,780
那属于天文数字了呀

96
00:03:22,780 --> 00:03:23,099
对啊

97
00:03:23,099 --> 00:03:24,740
就那个时候不

98
00:03:24,740 --> 00:03:27,199
我还知道原来我们可以做手机

99
00:03:27,199 --> 00:03:29,900
而且我们可以一款手机赚五个亿

100
00:03:30,310 --> 00:03:35,590
就那个时候老大还认为说OK那这手机有可能真心实际上不播

101
00:03:35,590 --> 00:03:39,909
这些年所有的正确的事都是熬过来的

102
00:03:39,909 --> 00:03:41,590
错误的事都是主动选择的

103
00:03:42,590 --> 00:03:44,930
因为他并不是说我主动选择

104
00:03:45,250 --> 00:03:46,449
我得到一个好的结果

105
00:03:46,449 --> 00:03:47,969
是他没有犯重大的错误

106
00:03:47,969 --> 00:03:49,110
得到好的结果

107
00:03:49,110 --> 00:03:51,900
这就是匪夷所思的地方

108
00:03:51,900 --> 00:03:53,400
就是好的结果是等出来的

109
00:03:54,439 --> 00:03:55,319
好的投资决策

110
00:03:55,319 --> 00:03:58,080
等出来的大钱也是整出来的

111
00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,159
对他不是挣出来的

112
00:04:00,159 --> 00:04:01,300
这是为什么呢

113
00:04:01,300 --> 00:04:02,520
因为他等的过程里面

114
00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:03,240
对手全死了

115
00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:05,360
就在等的过程里面

116
00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,740
对手的错误很多很多很多全死了

117
00:04:08,740 --> 00:04:10,620
然后因为你没有犯错误

118
00:04:10,620 --> 00:04:12,139
你活下来了

119
00:04:12,139 --> 00:04:16,019
然后你又吸取了对方对手犯错误的经验

120
00:04:16,019 --> 00:04:18,009
然后你不犯同样的错误

121
00:04:18,009 --> 00:04:20,490
实际上并不是说你知道这个事该怎么破局

122
00:04:20,490 --> 00:04:22,589
比如今天美国伊朗战争

123
00:04:22,589 --> 00:04:24,329
你说美国和伊朗到怎么破局吗

124
00:04:24,329 --> 00:04:27,639
不知道只有中国知道我我我我不犯这个错误

125
00:04:27,639 --> 00:04:29,240
我也不知道怎么解决发展的问题

126
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:30,939
我不知道我不犯错误

127
00:04:30,939 --> 00:04:33,040
我不下滑就很好了

128
00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,870
是所以你是个社会

129
00:04:34,870 --> 00:04:35,149
就这样

130
00:04:35,149 --> 00:04:36,209
就是你别犯错误

131
00:04:36,209 --> 00:04:38,470
你少犯错误你就赢了

132
00:04:38,470 --> 00:04:40,350
而不是你做了多少对的选择

133
00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:41,629
是你做了多少

134
00:04:41,629 --> 00:04:43,750
你少了多少错误的选择

135
00:04:44,029 --> 00:04:45,269
你不做错

136
00:04:45,269 --> 00:04:48,589
你就进不了这个老段的精髓

137
00:04:50,399 --> 00:04:52,639
所以这就是人生很奇妙啊

138
00:04:52,639 --> 00:04:55,300
他不是说谁比谁的牌好

139
00:04:55,300 --> 00:04:58,319
是你少出错牌就行了

140
00:04:59,149 --> 00:05:00,230
但这个小白很难

141
00:05:00,230 --> 00:05:01,649
因为每个人都想进击啊

142
00:05:01,649 --> 00:05:03,750
进攻进击

143
00:05:04,069 --> 00:05:07,108
实际上进攻进击呢他也是个伪命题

144
00:05:07,108 --> 00:05:07,509
为啥呢

145
00:05:07,509 --> 00:05:08,788
因为你在正确的时间

146
00:05:08,788 --> 00:05:09,309
正确的人

147
00:05:09,309 --> 00:05:10,028
正确的事的时候

148
00:05:10,028 --> 00:05:11,129
你可以进击

149
00:05:11,129 --> 00:05:14,490
大部分时间没有这么巧

150
00:05:14,490 --> 00:05:17,990
你想想是不是强求这个事呢

151
00:05:17,990 --> 00:05:20,389
我强求过很多年了

152
00:05:21,250 --> 00:05:22,410
强求啊

153
00:05:22,410 --> 00:05:24,408
人定胜天啊

154
00:05:24,408 --> 00:05:26,329
行就是改变命运

155
00:05:26,329 --> 00:05:27,769
强求不是说不行

156
00:05:27,769 --> 00:05:29,408
但是大部分强求结果都不好

157
00:05:29,408 --> 00:05:31,449
有强扭的瓜不甜

158
00:05:31,790 --> 00:05:34,389
但是呢现在的人呢都是早熟

159
00:05:34,389 --> 00:05:35,689
都喜欢催熟

160
00:05:35,689 --> 00:05:37,740
催生加速

161
00:05:37,740 --> 00:05:40,620
但你强求呢结果是什么呢

162
00:05:40,620 --> 00:05:43,459
就是不自然不科学

163
00:05:44,749 --> 00:05:46,168
就这个核心问题

164
00:05:46,168 --> 00:05:48,120
但是你说做投资的时候

165
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:49,600
有多少人会想明白呢

166
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:51,000
有多少人会愿意思考呢

167
00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:53,540
大部分人不愿意思考

168
00:05:53,540 --> 00:05:55,399
没有耐心

169
00:05:56,009 --> 00:06:00,569
这也是我为什么唉反正我说很多事是伪命题啊

170
00:06:00,569 --> 00:06:02,930
就很多人做到最后就是伪命题

171
00:06:02,930 --> 00:06:06,129
没法没法探讨

172
00:06:06,129 --> 00:06:07,149
也没法交流

173
00:06:07,149 --> 00:06:08,588
或者说没法去验证

174
00:06:08,588 --> 00:06:09,848
就是要有验证

175
00:06:09,848 --> 00:06:10,548
最后怎么验证

176
00:06:10,548 --> 00:06:12,749
就说我我用两年来证明我是对的

177
00:06:12,749 --> 00:06:16,360
那两年之后别人都不在了

178
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:17,620
就你想探讨的时候

179
00:06:17,620 --> 00:06:19,180
你发现没有探讨的人了

180
00:06:19,180 --> 00:06:20,060
你懂了吧

181
00:06:20,060 --> 00:06:23,040
有有有一首歌就是越过三秋嘛

182
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,360
就越过三秋已经无人等候

183
00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:28,240
就这样

184
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:28,860
你知道吗

185
00:06:28,860 --> 00:06:29,879
每次遇过三球

186
00:06:29,879 --> 00:06:31,699
我怎么就跟我做生意一样的

187
00:06:31,699 --> 00:06:33,899
我没有把任何人作为对手

188
00:06:33,899 --> 00:06:37,670
但是每过一两年再去看

189
00:06:37,670 --> 00:06:38,029
诶

190
00:06:38,029 --> 00:06:39,170
怎么没人了呀

191
00:06:39,170 --> 00:06:40,029
都死了

192
00:06:40,029 --> 00:06:40,610
你知道吗

193
00:06:40,610 --> 00:06:41,189
都死了

194
00:06:41,189 --> 00:06:45,319
真的就我我我从2010年从那时候做开始

195
00:06:45,319 --> 00:06:47,100
然后一扭头同黄的没了

196
00:06:48,180 --> 00:06:49,579
扭头没了没了没了

197
00:06:49,579 --> 00:06:51,879
就这么过来的

198
00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:53,759
渔火三秋无人等候

199
00:06:53,759 --> 00:06:54,759
所以说我活的懂一点

200
00:06:54,759 --> 00:06:58,610
就是等来的都等来的

201
00:06:58,810 --> 00:06:59,569
来喝个酒啊

202
00:06:59,569 --> 00:06:59,970
开心啊

203
00:06:59,970 --> 00:07:03,160
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