【NaNa说美股】20260313要杀出恐慌来了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月13号周五

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中东战争呢进入了第14天

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没有任何缓解的迹象

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冲突烈度还在持续升级

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今天对伊朗发动了迄今最大规模打击

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要摧毁伊朗全部军事能力

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川普还放话称

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下周将对伊朗进行猛烈空袭

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五角大龙正向中东地区调派更多海军陆战队

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部队和军舰

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全线下挫

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标普500指数今天开盘后先回抽

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确认5日均线压力

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这种盘出的V字拉升在期权到期日

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周五晚尤为常见

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主要是由于部分空头呢见好就收

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提前获利回补

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同时也让周5~7的call

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在归零之前进行最后一波诱多

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投

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15分钟过后

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反弹动能就开始消退了

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因为6720点上方的抛售压力呢

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非常的机械化

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而且沉重

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指数重新滑落

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向下去寻找真正的支撑

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昨天视频里我们就曾说过哈

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CCTA的抛压尚未衰竭

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今天早盘时间大概率还会继续往下砸

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午盘开始就一直横着玩资不羁模期权了

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期权的时间价值呢就开始以苗为单位崩塌啊

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那些持有价外科的人集体撤离

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触发了做13的反向动作

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指数尾盘了二次跳水

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最后收在6632

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没有让指数崩盘

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跌破6600

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也没有给多头任何反弹的空间

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6600

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50以上的call和6600以下的put呢

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全部作废

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日K今天收出一根带有较长上影线的阴线

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目前市场短期已经超卖了

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但是还没有达到极限水平

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日线走势呢显示出这个卖压的持续性

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指数并不是散奔

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而是沿着斜率一路下行

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就像是一个缓速下滑的滑梯

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非常符合CCTA系统性抛售的迹象

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而且今天的收盘和昨天一样

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几乎没有下影线

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说明抛售动能仍然未耗尽

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嗯如果这条年线失守

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那么6550~6580

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这一例啊将会成为新的支撑带

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其次呢就是6500了

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而上方6750~6800

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则已经成为新的看涨期权强小莫说了哈

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这个周末中东那一边要是再没有好消息的话

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那下周风险资产的抛售会更剧烈

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下周的情况也是非常的复杂

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除了中东局势变化之外

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下周一到周三有英伟达GTC大会

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黄教主的大饼呢或许能够提振一下市场情绪

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但是如果周末中东局势恶化

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那只靠英伟达也扛不了什么事

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下周三还有美联储利率决议

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这更重要

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大家都知道3月不可能降息

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主要就是想听一听FMC

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还有鲍威尔对于这个通胀趋势怎么说嗯

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点阵图是不是还依然预示着年内会有两次降息

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下个周五呢又是2026年的第一个商务日哈

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所以这个下周的市场波动不会小

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数据面上

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盘前公布的美国1月PC物价指数

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同比增长2.8%

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低于市场预期的2.9%

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而核心PC1同比增速呢则基本符合预期

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美国整体通胀压力在年初有所缓解

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但市场反应相对平淡

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因为1月和2月份的数据都没有计入

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近期因为依赖冲突所引发的油价飙升

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对未来政策判断的指引意义有限

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市场更关注3月份的通胀数据

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能源成本的上升

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可能会在未来几个月逐步向消费端传导

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从而呢重新推高通胀水平

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所以即便1月通胀数据表现温和

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未来几个月的PC1指标啊

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仍可能面临着重新上行的风险

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美国去年第四季度GDP增速呢被下调到

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只有0.7%

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只要远低于1.5%的普遍预期

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也标志着美国经济活动的显著放缓

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受此影响

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交易员们虽然对美联储货币政策路径的预期

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仍保持谨慎哈

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但预计美联储将会在9月之前降息

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美元指数连续两周走强

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突破了100心理关口

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中东紧张局势持续升级

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引发全球资产动荡

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尤其是相对未成熟的那些新兴市场

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的这种背景之下

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资金就从新兴市场

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还有部分风险资产中流出

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重新回流到美国金融市场

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从而呢对美元指数哈这个形成了支撑

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还有私人信贷危机的全面爆发

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也推动资金在3月初疯狂回流美元

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因为引资银行体系的流动性已经开始枯竭了

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这种避险资金回流

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往往会在短期内强化美元指数的上涨动能

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但是呢美国利率前景哈

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仍然是影响美元走势的核心变量

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市场对降息周期的预期仍然存在

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等这些风险消退之后呢

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美元将会再次转弱

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因为川普他的执政方针之一

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就是通过弱美元政策来促进出口

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在他任期内

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美元的贬值周期与美联储的降息周期

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几乎是同步推进的

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个股与板块方面

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由于油价暴涨

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能源指数ETFXLE在突破了多年震荡区间后

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开启了极强的斜率拉升

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涨幅超过了30%

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下方的ISI指标已经多次进入

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70以上的超买区

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反映了短期的极强动能

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不过呢价格连续创出新高

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I3的分值却是一个比一个低

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就出现了典型的顶背离

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这通常意味着上涨动能正在衰竭

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多头力量在边际递减

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通常是调整的前兆

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与此同时

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底下的成交量最近结交易日也在萎缩

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呃

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这个与埃塞的背离呢就形成了双重共振哈

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进一步确认多头衰减

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操作策略上不建议在这个位置盲目加仓追高了

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但更不建议冒险做空哈

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这种高斜率上涨

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如果不经过横盘震荡来消耗I塞的超满压力呢

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通常就会演变成一次剧烈的快速下探啊

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嗯所以应该关注这条月均线的支撑力度哈

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一旦跌破了

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那可能引发这个获利盘的集中踩踏

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潜在的回调目标位呢在这条50日均线附近

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化妆品零售商ultra

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在第四季度继续保持强近的同店销售增长

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和好于预期的营收

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但是呢利润不仅是残余期

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2026财年业绩指引也较为谨慎

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理由是担忧通胀挤压消费预算

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投资者失望之下就开始抛售股票了

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逛破了年限

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看K线技术形态

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这抛压呀还没有释放完毕

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需要再观察几天

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所以不要急于进场去接飞刀

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软银旗下电子支付企业PAYP

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昨天首日IPO上市

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表现量也大盘这么动荡

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它的股价还能够连续两天累涨超30%

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你说最近那些金融科技股

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都跌成什么熊样了是吧

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说明呃这支股票背后的投行们啊

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护盘功力不错呀

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估计这次孙长老又是四处给华尔街大行们

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拜码头打过招呼了

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市值居然拉到了141亿美元

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太高了哈

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腰斩都太高了

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上市的前几个月

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软银呃

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以及背后的那个愿景基金

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控制了这家公司大约92%的投票权

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市场里面

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真正能交易的筹码非常的少

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这种结构之下

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只要投行稍作引导

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少量的买盘

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就能够拉出巨大的涨幅

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尤其是在IPO后的头30天内

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投行呢有超额配售权

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沪深每当股价有回调压力

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承销商就会入场支撑

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就所谓的做那个市值管理公司CEO还表示呀

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考虑在东京交易所双重上市哎

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因为软银目前呢急需现金来支持他

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对OpenAI高达300亿美元的追加投资嘛

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所以这种时候啊

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PAYP说白了就是软银的提款机原型哈

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必须要把这个价格维持在高位

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后续软银才好进行股权抵押贷款

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或者是二次减持套现啊

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再去投钱给欧鹏燕

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看看另一只金融次新股克拉纳股价值

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IPO以来跌得多惨

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早就已经跌破IPO发行价40美元了

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估值呢也缩水了近2/3

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自年初以来哈

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因为股票解禁

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股价就加速下跌

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由于缺少接盘侠呢

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价格自由落体

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为了缓解市场对

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解禁后可能出现的抛售潮的担忧

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公司特地发布了一份声明

217
00:09:45,419 --> 00:09:46,159
表示

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00:09:46,159 --> 00:09:48,559
主要股东在出售股票前

219
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,899
需要向sec提交相关文件

220
00:09:50,899 --> 00:09:52,700
而截止3月7号

221
00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:56,460
公司任何关联方都没有提交此类申请

222
00:09:56,460 --> 00:09:57,909
换句话就是告诉大家

223
00:09:57,909 --> 00:10:00,950
而那些短线投机客们该走都走了

224
00:10:00,950 --> 00:10:03,230
剩下的那些都是长期投资者

225
00:10:03,230 --> 00:10:05,539
短期内可能并不打算抛售

226
00:10:05,539 --> 00:10:06,559
与此同时

227
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:10,710
公司董事长还在3月3号到3月11号期间

228
00:10:10,710 --> 00:10:13,990
购买了公司347万股股票

229
00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:18,129
一共花费了大约5000万美元来信心喊话

230
00:10:18,129 --> 00:10:21,250
这个消息当然也提振了投资者对该股的信心

231
00:10:21,250 --> 00:10:23,740
股价今天逆势上涨嗯

232
00:10:23,740 --> 00:10:27,899
但是宏观大环境的逆风持续存在呀

233
00:10:27,899 --> 00:10:30,340
美联储降息时间又推迟了

234
00:10:30,340 --> 00:10:33,820
高利率呢尤其不利于这些金融科技股

235
00:10:33,820 --> 00:10:37,000
所以它的股价可能还会低位盘整一段时间

236
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,679
耐克居然跌破55美元了哈

237
00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,980
股价短线已经超卖了

238
00:10:41,980 --> 00:10:45,399
但是目前还没有看到任何企稳的迹象

239
00:10:45,399 --> 00:10:48,129
仍在继续下探寻找支撑

240
00:10:48,129 --> 00:10:50,610
更下方五十一五十二美元呢

241
00:10:50,610 --> 00:10:52,690
是去年4月份的低点

242
00:10:52,690 --> 00:10:54,409
属于强支撑位

243
00:10:54,409 --> 00:10:56,870
目前情绪已经极度悲观了

244
00:10:56,870 --> 00:11:01,960
除非这个3月31号的财报出现严重暴雷

245
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,200
比如库存积压进一步恶化

246
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,690
毛利呢跌破40%等等

247
00:11:06,690 --> 00:11:11,090
否则这个五十一五十二美元难以被有效击穿

248
00:11:11,090 --> 00:11:16,039
目前当然也有部分机构给出了最悲观的预测

249
00:11:16,039 --> 00:11:19,100
下限为35~45美元哈

250
00:11:19,100 --> 00:11:22,750
这个是基于中国市场业绩持续恶化

251
00:11:22,750 --> 00:11:27,110
以及高额关税压力所带来的极端回撤

252
00:11:27,110 --> 00:11:30,840
定价也就极端的宏观底部嗯

253
00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,600
所以这个就是可遇不可求的一个底部

254
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,068
35~45

255
00:11:35,068 --> 00:11:39,028
不知道今年6月份世界杯能不能够拯救一下

256
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,259
这一周大家也辛苦了哈

257
00:11:42,259 --> 00:11:43,980
就波动非常的剧烈

258
00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:46,340
弄得这个神经都很紧绷

259
00:11:46,340 --> 00:11:48,179
那这周末我们就好好休息

260
00:11:48,179 --> 00:11:49,440
下次见拜拜

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