BV16d5P6HEYt · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,039 大家好 2 00:00:14,039 --> 00:00:16,480 欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是5月11号 3 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:17,140 周一 4 00:00:17,140 --> 00:00:19,480 市场呢光速消化了美伊和谈 5 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:21,179 陷入僵局的最新消息 6 00:00:21,179 --> 00:00:23,899 美股三大股指集体仍然小幅收窄 7 00:00:23,899 --> 00:00:26,868 标普与纳指继续每天刷新高 8 00:00:26,868 --> 00:00:30,949 不过油价与美债收益率的上升限制了股市涨幅 9 00:00:30,949 --> 00:00:32,429 但对于市场来说哈 10 00:00:32,429 --> 00:00:34,368 只要伊朗别反攻华盛顿 11 00:00:34,368 --> 00:00:35,600 一切都好商量 12 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,460 川普昨天发帖直言 13 00:00:37,460 --> 00:00:39,219 伊朗的回应不可接受 14 00:00:39,219 --> 00:00:41,200 伊朗要求全面解除战争 15 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,359 并且在30天内解除对伊朗的制裁 16 00:00:47,399 --> 00:00:49,939 称与伊朗的战争尚未结束 17 00:00:49,939 --> 00:00:51,320 受此消息影响呢 18 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:52,500 油价回升 19 00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:53,799 过去两个月 20 00:00:53,799 --> 00:00:57,009 全球石油储备消耗了大约10亿桶 21 00:00:57,009 --> 00:00:58,789 摩根三里急得直跺脚 22 00:00:58,789 --> 00:00:59,149 称 23 00:00:59,149 --> 00:01:01,509 石油市场正在与时间赛跑 24 00:01:01,509 --> 00:01:04,549 如果霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续到6月 25 00:01:04,549 --> 00:01:06,400 那油价就压不住了 26 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:07,239 有趣的是 27 00:01:07,239 --> 00:01:11,180 大摩和他的弟弟小魔最近双双疯狂唱多 28 00:01:11,180 --> 00:01:13,980 缘由却撞上了白宫的政治铁拳 29 00:01:13,980 --> 00:01:16,299 川普几次精准做空原油 30 00:01:16,299 --> 00:01:20,079 把原油多头呢直接按在地上摩擦震慑力拉满 31 00:01:20,079 --> 00:01:21,519 还美滋滋的赚钱 32 00:01:21,519 --> 00:01:22,340 小魔说 33 00:01:22,340 --> 00:01:26,439 虽然原油价格被政治利益量压在100美元附近 34 00:01:26,439 --> 00:01:29,150 但是下游成品有的已经快炸了 35 00:01:29,150 --> 00:01:32,469 燃油价格飙升将直接冲击消费者 36 00:01:32,469 --> 00:01:34,780 航空公司与物流体系 37 00:01:34,780 --> 00:01:37,920 美国驾车出行旺季将于5月底 38 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:42,260 阵亡将士纪念日的前后正式开启 39 00:01:42,260 --> 00:01:46,219 汽油零售价已经冲向4.56美元一加仑了 40 00:01:46,219 --> 00:01:48,739 加州的平均油价甚至已经升到了 41 00:01:48,739 --> 00:01:50,539 每加仑五美元以上 42 00:01:50,539 --> 00:01:53,058 所以嗯这个航空运输 43 00:01:53,058 --> 00:01:54,218 邮轮这些板块哈 44 00:01:54,218 --> 00:01:56,759 目前正在承受着更大的压力 45 00:01:56,759 --> 00:01:59,718 邮轮中基本面最稳健的RCL 46 00:01:59,718 --> 00:02:01,730 最近股价持续回落 47 00:02:01,730 --> 00:02:02,890 达美航空呢 48 00:02:02,890 --> 00:02:06,950 它自有炼油厂是核心差异化的对冲资产 49 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:09,360 高油价的时候可以降本增效 50 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,539 油价低的时候呢就成为负担 51 00:02:11,539 --> 00:02:15,520 所以达美航空的股价比其他航空股更具韧性 52 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,439 虽然这几天也持续回落 53 00:02:17,439 --> 00:02:19,539 但仍处于历史高位水平 54 00:02:19,539 --> 00:02:21,599 不过呢中东那点破事哈 55 00:02:21,599 --> 00:02:24,120 完全盖不住AI的圣光呀 56 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,080 费城半导体指数今天又续涨了2.6% 57 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,060 更疯狂的是韩国股市 58 00:02:29,060 --> 00:02:32,400 韩国中今天又暴涨了4.32% 59 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:33,819 创历史新高 60 00:02:33,819 --> 00:02:35,879 简直是牛冠全球 61 00:02:35,879 --> 00:02:40,340 SK海力士与三星电子长得就像中了彩票一样 62 00:02:40,340 --> 00:02:44,000 美股这边也像是一列全速前进的火车哈 63 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,409 这张图描绘了踏空者的集体焦虑 64 00:02:47,409 --> 00:02:48,689 标普500的看涨 65 00:02:48,689 --> 00:02:52,469 期权溢价已经达到了两年来的最高水平 66 00:02:52,469 --> 00:02:54,430 踏空者是一边流泪 67 00:02:54,430 --> 00:02:56,129 一边疯狂追涨啊 68 00:02:56,129 --> 00:03:00,030 由于他们不敢在高位重仓买现货 69 00:03:00,030 --> 00:03:04,889 就只能够花点小钱通过期权加杠杆强行上车 70 00:03:04,889 --> 00:03:05,789 与此同时 71 00:03:05,789 --> 00:03:08,449 几乎没人想买看跌保护哈 72 00:03:08,449 --> 00:03:10,599 对冲意愿降至冰点 73 00:03:10,599 --> 00:03:13,560 市场情绪处于过度亢奋状态呢 74 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,800 往往意味着短期的反转风险 75 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,270 或者高波动风险已经不远了 76 00:03:18,270 --> 00:03:20,169 尤其是在今天嗯 77 00:03:20,169 --> 00:03:22,310 美股大盘上涨情况之下 78 00:03:22,310 --> 00:03:24,770 波率指数VIX也同步上升 79 00:03:24,770 --> 00:03:28,530 嗯因为明天4月CPI数据即将公布 80 00:03:28,530 --> 00:03:31,620 可能就有部分交易员买入下行保护 81 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,960 川普将于本周5月13号到15号访华 82 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,139 随行人员中英伟达 83 00:03:40,139 --> 00:03:41,400 苹果X森美孚 84 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:41,919 波音 85 00:03:41,919 --> 00:03:43,199 高通黑石 86 00:03:43,199 --> 00:03:45,900 花旗等企业的CEO悉数在列 87 00:03:45,900 --> 00:03:48,340 市场也聚焦这次行程 88 00:03:48,340 --> 00:03:50,719 双方肯定会谈及伊朗问题 89 00:03:50,719 --> 00:03:51,759 在商业层面 90 00:03:51,759 --> 00:03:55,000 除了大豆和波音飞机这些老三样 91 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,759 实际能达成的交易呢可能比较有限 92 00:03:57,759 --> 00:04:01,180 因为这次行程的重点在于修复双方关系 93 00:04:01,180 --> 00:04:04,800 而规模和实质性红利哈恐怕不及以往 94 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:06,579 更多是一种政治姿态 95 00:04:06,579 --> 00:04:07,519 个股方面 96 00:04:07,519 --> 00:04:10,419 AI硬件产业链继续全面爆发 97 00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:12,699 尤其是光通信板块几乎涨疯了 98 00:04:12,699 --> 00:04:16,800 今天LITE因为将于5月18号纳入嗯 99 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,788 这个纳指100触发大量被动资金提前抢筹 100 00:04:20,788 --> 00:04:22,259 股价直接暴涨 101 00:04:22,259 --> 00:04:24,019 今年3月份的时候呢 102 00:04:24,019 --> 00:04:27,019 LITE就已经被纳入标普500指数了哈 103 00:04:27,019 --> 00:04:29,750 这代表该股在短短两个月内 104 00:04:29,750 --> 00:04:33,038 同时挤升美国两大基准指数 105 00:04:33,038 --> 00:04:35,978 随着GPU算力持续堆叠 106 00:04:35,978 --> 00:04:38,519 真正限制AI数据中心效率的 107 00:04:38,519 --> 00:04:40,750 已经开始从芯片本身 108 00:04:40,750 --> 00:04:44,500 逐渐转向高速互联与数据传输了 109 00:04:44,500 --> 00:04:47,439 说白了现在AI服务器之间如果连不快 110 00:04:47,439 --> 00:04:49,779 GPU再强也会被拖慢效率 111 00:04:49,779 --> 00:04:54,050 所以呢无论是硅关CPU高速光模块 112 00:04:54,050 --> 00:04:56,170 还是数据中心内部互联 113 00:04:56,170 --> 00:04:59,269 全部都成了资金追逐的新核心 114 00:04:59,269 --> 00:05:02,769 CEOHR股价今天也大涨了3.25% 115 00:05:02,769 --> 00:05:05,660 AAOI更是暴涨超24% 116 00:05:05,660 --> 00:05:07,819 市场在暴利重新定价 117 00:05:07,819 --> 00:05:11,069 那些曾经被边缘化的基础设施环节 118 00:05:11,069 --> 00:05:14,670 在英伟达下一代RUBAN平台的预期下哈 119 00:05:14,670 --> 00:05:18,779 800G1.6T的需求想象空间完全打开 120 00:05:18,779 --> 00:05:22,240 现阶段无论是官通性还是存储板块 121 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,680 技术面上的这个所谓阻力啊 122 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,000 在疯狂的市场共识面前呢 123 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,639 就脆弱的有如一张纸 124 00:05:29,639 --> 00:05:30,899 一戳就破 125 00:05:30,899 --> 00:05:32,620 决定股价天花板 126 00:05:32,620 --> 00:05:34,100 那从来不是估值 127 00:05:34,100 --> 00:05:36,660 也不是所谓的超买指标 128 00:05:36,660 --> 00:05:41,420 而是华尔街愿意把AI想象力推到多疯狂 129 00:05:41,420 --> 00:05:42,879 杠杆拉到多高 130 00:05:42,879 --> 00:05:45,189 在资金没有炒进性之前 131 00:05:45,189 --> 00:05:48,029 任何试图猜定的行为都是徒劳 132 00:05:48,029 --> 00:05:49,129 而且危险的 133 00:05:49,129 --> 00:05:52,120 连之前被迈威尔科技抛所 134 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,160 导致这个股价崩盘的PODT哈 135 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:56,519 都已经满血复活了 136 00:05:56,519 --> 00:05:58,550 股价逼近前高15美元 137 00:05:58,550 --> 00:06:02,069 逐渐资金如今是只要与AI基础设施沾边 138 00:06:02,069 --> 00:06:04,009 就敢讲故事的疯狂 139 00:06:04,009 --> 00:06:06,209 反观软件应用板块呢 140 00:06:06,209 --> 00:06:07,029 又被抽血 141 00:06:09,819 --> 00:06:11,439 市场现在的态度很明确 142 00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:14,490 就是不要未来可能赚钱的AI故事 143 00:06:14,490 --> 00:06:16,769 只要现在立即能接订单 144 00:06:16,769 --> 00:06:17,569 能扩产 145 00:06:17,569 --> 00:06:19,740 能兑现的AI硬件面 146 00:06:19,740 --> 00:06:21,000 A l i t 147 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:25,319 取代纳值100席位的商业不动产数据分析公司 148 00:06:25,319 --> 00:06:26,939 cs gp的陨落 149 00:06:26,939 --> 00:06:28,480 就是一个很好的例子 150 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,240 反映了投资者对于AI颠覆的担忧 151 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,480 并非是杞人忧天哈 152 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,600 因为这家数据提供商他曾经也是一只长牛股呀 153 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,220 1998年上市 154 00:06:39,220 --> 00:06:43,970 从IPO价格九美元涨到了峰值100美元方的十倍 155 00:06:43,970 --> 00:06:46,490 结果在AI横空出世之后呢 156 00:06:46,490 --> 00:06:47,649 就彻底没落了 157 00:06:47,649 --> 00:06:49,170 今年股价已经腰斩 158 00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:51,970 如今更是直接被踢出了那只100 159 00:06:51,970 --> 00:06:53,928 另一只股票嗯 160 00:06:53,928 --> 00:06:57,468 汤森路特TRI同样是深陷泥潭 161 00:06:57,468 --> 00:06:58,869 听这个名字大家都知道哈 162 00:06:58,869 --> 00:07:00,149 大名鼎鼎的路透社 163 00:07:00,149 --> 00:07:03,459 就是他家的2025年年K这一条嗯 164 00:07:03,459 --> 00:07:04,980 超长的上影线 165 00:07:04,980 --> 00:07:08,040 估计就是他无法再回去的顶部了 166 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,500 这些曾经垄断了专业信息的提供商 167 00:07:11,500 --> 00:07:14,759 已经从AI赢家的幻觉中醒来哈 168 00:07:14,759 --> 00:07:18,120 变成了面临存危机的夕阳产业了 169 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,439 ServiceNow的护城河呢是比较深 170 00:07:20,439 --> 00:07:22,019 因为即便AI再强 171 00:07:22,019 --> 00:07:25,310 也需要一个控制台来获知谁有权呃 172 00:07:25,310 --> 00:07:26,769 修改服务器设置 173 00:07:26,769 --> 00:07:28,170 随负责这个流程 174 00:07:28,170 --> 00:07:31,579 而企业的流程数据掌握在ServiceNow手里 175 00:07:31,579 --> 00:07:34,079 AI想要自动处理工单的话 176 00:07:34,079 --> 00:07:36,158 必须调用ServiceNow的数据 177 00:07:36,158 --> 00:07:38,959 但是这个公司传统的商业模式 178 00:07:38,959 --> 00:07:42,310 也同样是依赖于企业员工数量的 179 00:07:42,310 --> 00:07:45,189 如果AI agent能够独立处理 180 00:07:45,189 --> 00:07:48,029 80%的工单和这个流程的话 181 00:07:48,029 --> 00:07:50,158 那企业就不再需要那么多人了 182 00:07:50,158 --> 00:07:52,899 ServiceNow的订阅收入就会萎缩哈 183 00:07:52,899 --> 00:07:56,379 这是华尔街看空service note的核心逻辑 184 00:07:56,379 --> 00:08:01,060 所以呢他这个公司也正在进行极其痛苦 185 00:08:01,060 --> 00:08:05,189 但是很有必要的这个商业模式的转型 186 00:08:05,189 --> 00:08:07,220 根据今年一季报 187 00:08:07,220 --> 00:08:08,560 他的AI产品 188 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,500 now assist的签约额 189 00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:14,069 在2026年有望突破10亿甚至15亿美元 190 00:08:14,069 --> 00:08:18,918 证明了他的确有能力把人头费转化为AI增值费 191 00:08:18,918 --> 00:08:23,160 但这仍处于新旧动能转换的一个尴尬期哈 192 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,579 因为旧的增长点呢在放缓 193 00:08:25,579 --> 00:08:27,939 而新的AI收入增长的虽然快 194 00:08:27,939 --> 00:08:30,389 但是还没有大到足够嗯 195 00:08:30,389 --> 00:08:34,318 能覆盖市场对传统模式萎缩的恐惧 196 00:08:34,318 --> 00:08:36,839 所以它的股价也还在继续磨底 197 00:08:36,839 --> 00:08:39,308 其实比起AI替代来嗯 198 00:08:39,308 --> 00:08:41,729 ServiceNow最大的威胁还是微软 199 00:08:41,729 --> 00:08:43,928 如果微软通过call pilots 200 00:08:43,928 --> 00:08:47,080 直接在系统底层接管企业流程 201 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,179 不再通过ServiceNow的界面 202 00:08:49,179 --> 00:08:51,340 那个才是真正的灭顶之灾啊 203 00:08:51,340 --> 00:08:54,799 只要是这微软没能把社频道的客户 204 00:08:54,799 --> 00:08:56,299 成规模的给抢走 205 00:08:56,299 --> 00:09:01,320 那ServiceNow的估值修复呢只是时间问题嗯 206 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,259 这支股票现在就是一只高风险的转型股 207 00:09:04,259 --> 00:09:05,440 想要抄底的朋友呢 208 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,000 别想一步到位哈 209 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,529 现价八十五九十可以买点 210 00:09:09,529 --> 00:09:12,169 到七十五八十再补点 211 00:09:12,169 --> 00:09:14,470 现在市场情绪非常的极端 212 00:09:14,470 --> 00:09:17,379 分批布局是唯一的理性的选择 213 00:09:17,379 --> 00:09:20,659 等公司用未来几个季度的财报去证明 214 00:09:20,659 --> 00:09:22,919 他自己不会被AI替代 215 00:09:22,919 --> 00:09:26,210 那个时候才可能真正迎来这个主升浪 216 00:09:26,210 --> 00:09:28,730 太空概念股延续强势 217 00:09:28,730 --> 00:09:31,289 DXYZ这几天涨得非常的疯狂 218 00:09:31,289 --> 00:09:37,438 SPACEXIPO热潮持续推动这些相关概念股的炒作啊 219 00:09:37,438 --> 00:09:40,519 WORKLAB股价呢在上周五飙升34%后 220 00:09:40,519 --> 00:09:42,960 今天又续涨了11%嗯 221 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,919 小月亮LUNR也连续两天强势上涨 222 00:09:46,919 --> 00:09:51,288 本周四将会有一支新股CBR is上市 223 00:09:51,288 --> 00:09:53,620 这是一家AI芯片公司 224 00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:55,860 专注于AI推理芯片 225 00:09:55,860 --> 00:09:59,620 已经获得亚马逊和OpenAI这两大客户的背书 226 00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:00,539 欧朋爱呢 227 00:10:00,539 --> 00:10:04,830 与他签了一份超200亿美元的芯片采购协议 228 00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:06,990 并且获认股权证 229 00:10:06,990 --> 00:10:11,519 可以购入超过3300万股的这股份 230 00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:13,960 其实早在2024年上半年 231 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,889 公司就已经想上市了 232 00:10:15,889 --> 00:10:19,429 但是由于他的业务高度依赖单一客户 233 00:10:19,429 --> 00:10:20,610 G42行 234 00:10:20,610 --> 00:10:22,450 引发了监管审查 235 00:10:22,450 --> 00:10:24,649 并且导致此前IPO撤回 236 00:10:24,649 --> 00:10:27,490 而如今随着OpenAI与亚马逊的加入 237 00:10:27,490 --> 00:10:30,909 公司摇身一变成了挑战英伟达 238 00:10:30,909 --> 00:10:32,960 推理市场的希望之星 239 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,320 收入结构呢也显著嗯多元化了 240 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,318 尽管公司目前仍处于亏损状态哈 241 00:10:39,318 --> 00:10:42,798 但投资者压住推理时代算力需求爆发 242 00:10:42,798 --> 00:10:46,710 尤其是在当前AI芯片热潮持续升温的背景下 243 00:10:46,710 --> 00:10:49,070 该股呢得到机构的热捧 244 00:10:49,070 --> 00:10:51,429 认购倍数已经超过了20倍 245 00:10:51,429 --> 00:10:52,669 据路透社报道 246 00:10:52,669 --> 00:10:55,169 公司正考虑将IPO定价区间 247 00:10:55,169 --> 00:10:57,850 从一百十五到125美元 248 00:10:57,850 --> 00:11:01,269 大幅上调至150~160美元 249 00:11:01,269 --> 00:11:04,980 发行股数同步扩大到3000万股 250 00:11:04,980 --> 00:11:07,779 募资规模呢可达48亿美元 251 00:11:07,779 --> 00:11:10,259 对应的整体估值约350亿美元 252 00:11:10,259 --> 00:11:13,970 可能成为今年迄今全球规模最大的IPO 253 00:11:13,970 --> 00:11:17,500 就是在那些s space x lon topic之前哈嗯 254 00:11:17,500 --> 00:11:21,399 核电龙头公用事业电力股CEEG公布财报之后 255 00:11:21,399 --> 00:11:22,700 股价先涨后跌 256 00:11:22,700 --> 00:11:26,990 和上周公布财报的那个VST走势几乎一样 257 00:11:26,990 --> 00:11:29,789 公司Q1营收一百十一亿美元 258 00:11:29,789 --> 00:11:31,669 同比增长近64% 259 00:11:31,669 --> 00:11:35,049 主要得益于1月完成的靠牌呢收购 260 00:11:35,049 --> 00:11:39,399 并表调整后运营利润为每股2.74美元 261 00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:40,720 同比增长28% 262 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,068 虽然数据很强 263 00:11:42,068 --> 00:11:45,629 但是由于公司维持全年盈利指引不变 264 00:11:45,629 --> 00:11:47,818 导致市场的期待落空 265 00:11:47,818 --> 00:11:49,339 嗯资金获利了结 266 00:11:49,339 --> 00:11:50,979 根据财报细节 267 00:11:50,979 --> 00:11:54,298 他这个季度利润增长并不完全来自 268 00:11:54,298 --> 00:11:55,750 核心业务扩张 269 00:11:55,750 --> 00:11:58,250 除了COOPPINE呢并表贡献之外 270 00:11:58,250 --> 00:12:02,000 本季度盈利还受到了股权激励支出调整 271 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:06,190 以及核等税收抵免组合收益的阶段性的提升 272 00:12:06,190 --> 00:12:07,070 换句话说 273 00:12:07,070 --> 00:12:09,679 这个利润里掺了一些财季水分 274 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,759 不是纯粹靠发电业务自然增长 275 00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:15,779 所以被市场视为低质量的增长 276 00:12:15,779 --> 00:12:18,318 因为可持续性相对没有那么强嘛 277 00:12:18,318 --> 00:12:20,658 另外呢尽管营收暴涨 278 00:12:20,658 --> 00:12:24,958 但是Q1核心核电子厂的容量因子下降到了 279 00:12:24,958 --> 00:12:27,139 92.3%嗯 280 00:12:27,139 --> 00:12:31,000 公司解释是由于计划内的维护天数增加 281 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,610 从去年同期88天嗯 282 00:12:33,610 --> 00:12:35,049 涨到现在99天 283 00:12:35,049 --> 00:12:37,789 但是现在正值美国数据中心用电需求 284 00:12:37,789 --> 00:12:39,080 最疯狂的时候 285 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,879 核电站停工维护时间增加 286 00:12:41,879 --> 00:12:45,559 那就意味着公司错失了部分高价售电的机会 287 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,990 多少还是会影响资金情绪 288 00:12:47,990 --> 00:12:50,710 尤其是在当前高利率环境之下哈 289 00:12:50,710 --> 00:12:52,070 高估值公用事业股 290 00:12:52,070 --> 00:12:55,279 本身就更容易遭遇资金重新定价 291 00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:56,960 其实管理层也难啊 292 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,019 因为目前美国联邦能源管理委员会 293 00:13:00,019 --> 00:13:03,899 对于核电站直接向数据中心供电的收费模式 294 00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:05,519 还有接入标准呢 295 00:13:05,519 --> 00:13:07,850 仍然存在政策博弈 296 00:13:07,850 --> 00:13:10,070 在这个关键政策落定之前 297 00:13:10,070 --> 00:13:13,120 公司如果贸然的大他扶上跳指引的话 298 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,379 反而可能就引发监管层 299 00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:18,259 对于核电暴力的进一步关注哈 300 00:13:18,259 --> 00:13:19,818 就可能要杀肥猪 301 00:13:19,818 --> 00:13:22,219 所以这次不上挑指引 302 00:13:22,219 --> 00:13:24,599 并不代表公司基本面出了问题 303 00:13:24,599 --> 00:13:29,730 更像是这个管理层有意保持保守的预测 304 00:13:29,730 --> 00:13:32,250 财报中中其实有一个非常亮眼的点 305 00:13:32,250 --> 00:13:36,620 就是他未来几年嗯极高的现金流确定性 306 00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:39,159 公司预计在2028年和2029年 307 00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:39,840 将会实现 308 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,029 一百十五亿到130亿美元的自由现金流 309 00:13:43,029 --> 00:13:46,090 对于这种重资产公用事业公司来说 310 00:13:46,090 --> 00:13:46,730 稳定 311 00:13:46,730 --> 00:13:48,629 而且可预测的现金流 312 00:13:48,629 --> 00:13:51,730 才是长期估值最核心的支撑啊 313 00:13:51,730 --> 00:13:55,330 因此CEEG的这个长期存在逻辑哈 314 00:13:55,330 --> 00:13:55,769 并没有 315 00:13:55,769 --> 00:13:58,860 因为这次没有上调全年指引而动摇 316 00:13:58,860 --> 00:14:02,740 只不过现阶段的市场并不满足于业绩不错 317 00:14:02,740 --> 00:14:05,720 而是需要新的更强的催化剂 318 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,200 比如和谷歌 319 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:08,860 亚马逊这类科技巨头 320 00:14:08,860 --> 00:14:11,779 又签下新的长期购电协议啦 321 00:14:11,779 --> 00:14:14,980 或者监管层正式放开核电直供 322 00:14:14,980 --> 00:14:17,139 数据中心的政策限制 323 00:14:17,139 --> 00:14:18,080 只有这些 324 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,179 真正能打开长期盈利天花板的新故事哈 325 00:14:22,179 --> 00:14:25,490 才有可能推动cg股价开启下一轮主升浪 326 00:14:25,490 --> 00:14:29,590 不然的话他就还是这种温吞吞的公用事业股 327 00:14:29,590 --> 00:14:33,450 资金更愿意去炒那些不受监管的独立电力股 328 00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:37,090 比如燃气电池啦或者是涡轮机龙头等等 329 00:14:37,090 --> 00:14:40,309 我的那股价呢今天高开低走 330 00:14:40,309 --> 00:14:42,830 盘前涨了近7%呃 331 00:14:42,830 --> 00:14:44,210 盘中跳水收跌 332 00:14:44,210 --> 00:14:45,210 哪怕公司披露 333 00:14:45,210 --> 00:14:50,019 正在推进多起与汉坦病毒疫苗有关的早期研究 334 00:14:50,019 --> 00:14:52,379 今天这个股价走势不知道什么情况哈 335 00:14:52,379 --> 00:14:55,340 不是觉得这个病毒被夸大了呢 336 00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:57,578 还是觉得不需要疫苗嗯 337 00:14:57,578 --> 00:14:59,599 行今天我们就简单说到这里 338 00:14:59,599 --> 00:15:02,399 那我们明天就等CPI数据哈 339 00:15:02,399 --> 00:15:06,659 看看是推动这个市场百尺竿头更进一步呢 340 00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:08,460 还是这个炸裂市场 341 00:15:08,460 --> 00:15:09,679 明天见拜拜
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