BV16MRvBKEe6 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,199 嘿大家好 2 00:00:01,199 --> 00:00:02,319 今天咱们来聊聊 3 00:00:02,319 --> 00:00:05,440 亚洲消费市场里一个绝对的重量级玩家 4 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:06,809 东鹏饮料 5 00:00:06,809 --> 00:00:09,810 如果你之前扫过摩根士丹利最新发布的 6 00:00:09,810 --> 00:00:12,250 2026年第一季度业绩更新报告 7 00:00:12,250 --> 00:00:14,099 可能第一反应是哇 8 00:00:14,099 --> 00:00:15,560 这数据也太密集 9 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:16,850 太硬核了吧 10 00:00:16,850 --> 00:00:17,690 别头大 11 00:00:17,690 --> 00:00:21,269 咱们今天这期解析就是要把这份研报掰开揉碎 12 00:00:21,269 --> 00:00:24,170 转化成大白话给大家梳理的明明白白的 13 00:00:24,170 --> 00:00:25,070 准备好了吗 14 00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:26,870 咱们直接切入正题 15 00:00:26,870 --> 00:00:28,489 咱们开门见山 16 00:00:28,489 --> 00:00:30,670 先抛个极其炸裂的数字 17 00:00:30,670 --> 00:00:32,499 39趴没错 18 00:00:32,499 --> 00:00:35,179 这是大摩这份报告抛出的头条结论 19 00:00:35,179 --> 00:00:35,999 他们预测 20 00:00:35,999 --> 00:00:37,378 东鹏饮料的目标价 21 00:00:37,378 --> 00:00:40,848 有着高达39帕的巨大潜在上涨空间 22 00:00:40,848 --> 00:00:41,908 你可能会想 23 00:00:41,908 --> 00:00:45,429 在一个竞争早就白热化的成熟饮料市场里 24 00:00:45,429 --> 00:00:47,609 一家体量已经这么大的企业 25 00:00:47,609 --> 00:00:50,210 凭什么还能有这么夸张的上涨空间 26 00:00:50,210 --> 00:00:52,530 这背后的逻辑到底是个啥 27 00:00:52,530 --> 00:00:55,850 为了彻底搞懂这个看涨的财务逻辑 28 00:00:55,850 --> 00:00:58,000 咱们分四步快速过一遍 29 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,768 先看大摩看涨东鹏的核心逻辑 30 00:01:00,768 --> 00:01:03,548 接着拆解驱动他业界的几大饮料引擎 31 00:01:03,548 --> 00:01:06,620 然后再盘一盘利润率成本和扩张节奏 32 00:01:06,620 --> 00:01:07,260 最后嘛 33 00:01:07,260 --> 00:01:10,890 当然得客客观观的权衡一下潜在的风险好 34 00:01:10,890 --> 00:01:12,790 那咱们直接进入第一部分 35 00:01:12,790 --> 00:01:16,390 剖析一下这个增持评级背后的看涨逻辑 36 00:01:16,390 --> 00:01:19,689 看看大摩的基本盘到底是怎么想的 37 00:01:19,689 --> 00:01:22,670 大摩这次给出的可是增持评级 38 00:01:22,670 --> 00:01:23,689 啥意思呢 39 00:01:23,689 --> 00:01:24,510 简单来说 40 00:01:24,510 --> 00:01:26,810 就是他们预期这支股票的表现 41 00:01:26,810 --> 00:01:29,129 会跑赢整个行业的大盘 42 00:01:29,129 --> 00:01:30,909 你对比一下数据就知道了 43 00:01:30,909 --> 00:01:32,170 26年4月底 44 00:01:32,170 --> 00:01:35,519 它的收盘价大概是208块人民币左右 45 00:01:35,519 --> 00:01:39,209 但大摩直接喊出了290块的明确目标价 46 00:01:39,209 --> 00:01:42,209 这信号可以说是相当强势了 47 00:01:42,209 --> 00:01:43,569 那么到底是什么 48 00:01:43,569 --> 00:01:46,620 结结实实的业务在撑着这么高的估值呢 49 00:01:46,620 --> 00:01:49,420 这也就引出了咱们的第二部分 50 00:01:49,420 --> 00:01:53,819 分析引擎引擎真正有意思的地方来了 51 00:01:53,819 --> 00:01:55,539 咱们得打开引擎盖 52 00:01:55,539 --> 00:01:57,718 看看是哪些聚集的产品线 53 00:01:57,718 --> 00:02:01,090 在推动这艘巨轮全速前进 54 00:02:01,090 --> 00:02:04,090 先看他的绝对主力能量饮料 55 00:02:04,090 --> 00:02:05,030 说实话 56 00:02:05,030 --> 00:02:08,090 他一季度的表现连管理层自己都觉得惊喜 57 00:02:08,090 --> 00:02:09,610 大本营华南市场 58 00:02:09,610 --> 00:02:12,569 不仅稳稳保住了两倍数的实际销售增长 59 00:02:12,569 --> 00:02:13,469 除了华南 60 00:02:13,469 --> 00:02:16,509 那增长势头简直可以用猛烈来形容 61 00:02:16,509 --> 00:02:17,949 而且大家注意啊 62 00:02:17,949 --> 00:02:21,870 核心单品的平均售价也就是a asp稳如泰山 63 00:02:21,870 --> 00:02:23,310 大摩特意强调了 64 00:02:23,310 --> 00:02:25,870 东鹏现在的促降活动非常理性 65 00:02:25,870 --> 00:02:26,930 这说明啥 66 00:02:26,930 --> 00:02:29,550 说明人家是在健康结结实实的赚钱 67 00:02:29,550 --> 00:02:32,459 根本没在靠流血打价格战来冲销量 68 00:02:32,459 --> 00:02:35,179 接着咱们把目光转向第二引擎 69 00:02:35,179 --> 00:02:36,729 东棚补水了 70 00:02:36,729 --> 00:02:38,370 这个数据真的绝了 71 00:02:38,370 --> 00:02:42,360 它的实际销量同比直接飙升了48线 72 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,780 这份报告可以说是强有力的给东鹏站台了 73 00:02:45,780 --> 00:02:47,939 坐实了他在销售额和销量上 74 00:02:47,939 --> 00:02:50,139 都已经拿下市场第一的说法 75 00:02:50,139 --> 00:02:52,379 你想想随着夏天旺季到来 76 00:02:52,379 --> 00:02:54,439 加上内部产能这么一倾斜 77 00:02:54,439 --> 00:02:57,770 这台新引擎的马力绝对还在往上拉 78 00:02:57,770 --> 00:02:58,710 当然啦 79 00:02:58,710 --> 00:03:01,219 光靠两把刷子还不够完整 80 00:03:01,219 --> 00:03:03,560 大摩在报告里还专门提了一嘴 81 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,240 其他饮料板块的强劲动能 82 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,400 说核心单品的增长相当令人鼓舞 83 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,020 尤其是果茶系列 84 00:03:11,020 --> 00:03:12,629 简直是异军突起 85 00:03:12,629 --> 00:03:13,930 这就很有意思了 86 00:03:13,930 --> 00:03:14,629 它意味着 87 00:03:14,629 --> 00:03:18,509 东鹏正在成功撕掉只卖能量饮料的单核标签 88 00:03:18,509 --> 00:03:21,699 硬是搞出了个多点开花的增长矩阵 89 00:03:21,699 --> 00:03:25,080 那这些销量转化成真金白银了吗 90 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,479 绝对的三大品类的毛利率可以说是全线狂飙 91 00:03:29,479 --> 00:03:32,099 核心能量饮料涨了3.8个百分点 92 00:03:32,099 --> 00:03:33,740 这已经很不错了对吧 93 00:03:33,740 --> 00:03:35,199 但你再看补水啦 94 00:03:35,199 --> 00:03:38,219 毛利率同比拉升了整整六个百分点 95 00:03:38,219 --> 00:03:40,680 其他饮料更是暴涨了七个百分点 96 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,960 这其实揭示了一个非常性感的商业逻辑 97 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,020 那些营销跑得最快的新品 98 00:03:46,020 --> 00:03:48,439 恰恰也是企业扩张最猛的利润 99 00:03:48,439 --> 00:03:50,460 奶牛聊完产品 100 00:03:50,460 --> 00:03:51,819 咱们无缝衔接 101 00:03:51,819 --> 00:03:53,159 进入第三部分 102 00:03:53,159 --> 00:03:56,199 利润率成本与扩张 103 00:03:56,199 --> 00:03:58,439 顺着刚才的逻辑看看 104 00:03:58,439 --> 00:04:00,460 在这么高速的增长背后 105 00:04:00,460 --> 00:04:04,789 东鹏是怎么玩转规模化运营和线下分销的 106 00:04:04,789 --> 00:04:07,449 大摸在报告里可是狠狠夸了一波 107 00:04:07,449 --> 00:04:10,770 东鹏那种纪律性极强的成本控制能力 108 00:04:10,770 --> 00:04:11,590 举个例子 109 00:04:11,590 --> 00:04:14,439 做饮料必不可少的pet塑尿 110 00:04:14,439 --> 00:04:18,000 人家打算今年三四季度就开始跟供应商谈 111 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,699 直接锁定明年的价格 112 00:04:19,699 --> 00:04:23,480 现在的整个供应链可以说是完全在正轨上狂奔 113 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,139 而且整体销售费用率稳住了 114 00:04:26,139 --> 00:04:28,689 还能有策略的去扶持新单品 115 00:04:28,689 --> 00:04:29,810 更厉害的是 116 00:04:29,810 --> 00:04:30,610 比起同行 117 00:04:30,610 --> 00:04:33,490 东鹏把外汇风险拿捏的死死的 118 00:04:33,490 --> 00:04:36,100 这内功确实扎实好 119 00:04:36,100 --> 00:04:38,620 在抛出下一组重磅数据前 120 00:04:38,620 --> 00:04:40,540 咱们得先对齐一个行话 121 00:04:40,540 --> 00:04:43,620 POS也就是销售终端 122 00:04:43,620 --> 00:04:45,160 买过水的朋友都知道 123 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:45,959 饮料这行 124 00:04:45,959 --> 00:04:49,300 能不能在楼下便利店或者街角小卖部的冰柜里 125 00:04:49,300 --> 00:04:50,300 看到你的瓶子 126 00:04:50,300 --> 00:04:51,720 直接决定了生死 127 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,019 POS就是饮料分销的绝对生命线 128 00:04:55,019 --> 00:04:58,319 那东鹏这条生命线铺得多深多广呢 129 00:04:58,319 --> 00:05:02,100 一季度的数据是超过4500万个销售终端 130 00:05:02,100 --> 00:05:04,418 这网络密集的简直令人惊叹 131 00:05:04,418 --> 00:05:05,699 更觉得是什么 132 00:05:05,699 --> 00:05:09,098 他们正顺着这张巨大的网疯狂往里面塞 133 00:05:09,098 --> 00:05:10,480 高利润的新产品 134 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,470 你看补水拉已经精准打进了超过300万个终端 135 00:05:14,470 --> 00:05:16,569 果茶系列也铺了超过200万个 136 00:05:16,569 --> 00:05:19,350 这就是为啥刚才说那些新产品能一飞冲天 137 00:05:19,350 --> 00:05:22,519 人家底层的渠道基础建设早就搭好了呀 138 00:05:22,519 --> 00:05:26,379 不过呢任何一套投资是稳赚不赔的 139 00:05:26,379 --> 00:05:28,240 这就到了咱们的最后一部分 140 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:29,540 权衡投资风险 141 00:05:29,540 --> 00:05:31,350 来个多空平衡 142 00:05:31,350 --> 00:05:34,589 看看现实世界里都有哪些不可控的因素 143 00:05:34,589 --> 00:05:39,009 这份报告把潜在的利好和利空摆的非常清晰 144 00:05:39,009 --> 00:05:39,949 往上看 145 00:05:39,949 --> 00:05:42,230 如果有超预期的营收增长 146 00:05:42,230 --> 00:05:44,189 更神仙的成本控制 147 00:05:44,189 --> 00:05:46,670 甚至未来海外市场拓展顺利 148 00:05:46,670 --> 00:05:48,019 那估值还能涨 149 00:05:48,019 --> 00:05:51,079 但咱们也得看着点脚下的坑大摸 150 00:05:51,079 --> 00:05:53,399 也毫不避讳地指出了下行风险 151 00:05:53,399 --> 00:05:55,519 比如饮料市场现在有多卷 152 00:05:55,519 --> 00:05:56,560 大家也知道 153 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,279 加上天气这东西老天爷也说了算 154 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,350 还有产品结构变化可能带来的利润率挤压 155 00:06:02,350 --> 00:06:04,170 咱们在这里不选边站队 156 00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:07,350 就是客观把天平的两端交给你自己判断 157 00:06:07,350 --> 00:06:10,449 所以把刚才这一大堆硬核数据盘下来 158 00:06:10,449 --> 00:06:12,240 最核心的结论是什么 159 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,259 大魔喊出那39percent的预期上涨空间 160 00:06:15,259 --> 00:06:18,209 绝不是拍脑袋或者赌某一个爆款的运气 161 00:06:18,209 --> 00:06:20,829 人家看中的是管理层那种死磕 162 00:06:20,829 --> 00:06:22,750 长期可持续增长的狠劲儿 163 00:06:22,750 --> 00:06:25,970 以及在新老产品线之间玩得极为出色的 164 00:06:25,970 --> 00:06:27,019 资源平衡术 165 00:06:27,019 --> 00:06:28,500 解析到了尾声 166 00:06:28,500 --> 00:06:31,509 留个硬核问题给大家琢磨琢磨 167 00:06:31,509 --> 00:06:35,410 手里握着450万的端的东鹏确实在狂奔 168 00:06:35,410 --> 00:06:38,069 但他们的新产品真的能一直跑赢 169 00:06:38,069 --> 00:06:40,060 卷到飞起的饮料大盘吗 170 00:06:40,060 --> 00:06:43,300 要是哪天遇到恶劣天气这种不利因素 171 00:06:43,300 --> 00:06:46,699 这种爆炸性的势头会不会被浇一盆冷水 172 00:06:46,699 --> 00:06:48,180 他们的运营效率 173 00:06:48,180 --> 00:06:50,930 到底能不能抗住市场饱和的考验 174 00:06:50,930 --> 00:06:53,230 这绝对值得咱们持续关注 175 00:06:53,230 --> 00:06:53,810 好了 176 00:06:53,810 --> 00:06:55,089 今天的解析就到这里 177 00:06:55,089 --> 00:06:56,519 咱们下次见
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