摩根士丹利-长电科技（600584）：2026年一季度财报电话会要点-260430

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大家好

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欢迎来到本期深度解读

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今天咱们要拆解一份分量极重的金融报告

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也就是摩根斯丹利在2026年4月30号

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最新发布的

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关于长电科技第一季度财报的深度更新

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如果你平时就比较关注半导体行业的风向标

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对那些巨额资本支出

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还有背后的技术暗战感兴趣

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那你绝对来对地方了

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咱们今天不念经

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直接透过这些枯燥的数据

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把最核心的商业洞察给你扒出来

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咱们直接看肝火不绕弯子

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大家看到的就是

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由摩根士丹利分析师团队撰写的一手研报

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这份报告浓缩了长电科技26年一季度财报

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电话会的精华

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长电科技可是全球排得上号的

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集成电路制造巨头

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他的一举一动

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其实都牵动着整个科技供应链的神经

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好咱们立马切入正题

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大家先看屏幕上这个大大的数字

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59percent

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说实话

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第一眼看到这个数据的时候

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我真的惊了一下

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在目前这种宏观环境下

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一家硬件巨头在某项关键支出上

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居然搞出了59percent的惊人增幅

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这到底是头脑发热盲目扩张

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还是在下一盘大棋

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这个悬念咱们今天一点儿一点儿给你解开

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为了帮大家快速理清脉络

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今天的解读主要分这么五个板块

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第一季度的财务底子

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工厂车间的实际运营情况

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他们压铸的尖端科技钱到底花哪儿了

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最后咱们再聊聊摩根斯丹里给出的风险和估值

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咱们就开始先进入第一部分

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第一季度财务状况

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摩根士丹利给这次财报定的调子是小幅上行

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咱们仔细对比一下环比和同比

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这两组数据会发现挺有意思的

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左边看环比的话

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也就是跟去年四季度比

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似乎有点惨

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营收掉了十遍

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净利润直接腰斩

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跌了53

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但你别急

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咱们再看右边

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把目光转向同比数据

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也就是跟去年一季度比

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其实营收微增了二倍

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达到了92元

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净利润更是猛涨了43元

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所以你看看半导体行业

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绝对不能忽略季节性波动

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环比下降

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那是受传统淡季影响

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同比的这种稳健增长

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才真正说明它的基本盘在复苏

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那咱们再拿个放大镜往细了看

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刚才说的92亿营收虽然同比涨了

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但大摸自己其实稍微有点小失望

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比他们的预测低了5%

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同时呢毛利率也被稍微挤压了一下

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降了0.7个百分点

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来到14.500分点

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最值得玩味的是这个净利润2.9亿元人民币

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这个数字比大众市场的共识预期高了整整十倍

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这也是大摩说它小幅上行的原因

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不过有意思的是

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大摩原本对他期望极高

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所以这成绩比大摩内部的预期

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反而低了33倍

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这其实就说明了大家对长店的看法有点分歧

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公司的表现刚好卡在了不同预期的夹缝里

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看完了账本儿

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咱们紧接着进入第二部分

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下沉到工厂车间去

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看看实际的运营和产能利用率

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毕竟财务报表只是个后视镜对吧

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咱们直接看看车间的机器转的怎么样

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80帕

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大家注意

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尽管一季度账面上喜忧参半

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但在半导体封装这种重资产行业

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机器只要再赚才说明真有订单

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一季度能稳住

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80帕以上的产能利用率相当不容易了

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这说明他们的核心生产线依然非常忙碌

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而且啊还不止于此

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管理层在电话会里直接给大家吃了颗定心丸儿

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他们预计在2026年接下来的日子里

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产能利用率还会稳步往上走

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这等于是告诉市场别慌

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我们后面的订单需求依然很强劲

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那么到底是什么底气让他们这么乐观呢

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这就来到咱们的第三部分

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压铸尖端科技

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大家都知道

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现在靠那种传统的低端封装早就不够看了

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大摩这报告里甩出了几个特别硬核的词

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比如CPU光电共封装

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还有异构集成

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听着挺萌的对吧

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其实你就把它想象成搭超级乐高

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把处理电的芯片处理光的芯片

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还有各种算力大脑

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极其精密地拼装在同一块微小的基板上

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这不仅能让数据传输速度起飞

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还能大幅降功耗

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在AI算力大爆发的今天

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谁掌握了这个

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谁就握住了半导体制造的王牌

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咱们看看这乐高长电搭的怎么样了

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首先长电微电子

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也就是GME下半年的亏损眼看着就要收窄了

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最关键的是

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他们正在疯狂扩充2.5D先进封装的产能

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大摩直接划重点了

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公司预计这玩意儿在未来两三年

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能带来实打实的几十个亿的营收

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还有刚才咱们聊的那个充满未来感的CPU产品

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目前已经正式通过了客户认证

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也就是说技术走出实验室

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真正在顶级供应链里拿到门票了

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有了技术蓝图

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那搞这些技术的钱从哪儿来

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第四部分

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咱们来追踪一下资金流向

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看看他们的资本支出

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这就完美呼应咱们一开头卖的那个关子了

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大家看这张图

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视觉冲击力是不是挺强

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2025年他们的资本支出是63亿

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已经很夸张了对吧

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结果到了26年

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预算直接拉满到100个亿

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这也就是咱们开头说的那个神秘的

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59帕的暴增

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这意味着什么

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意味着长电科技根本没打算防守

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他们是在逆周期进行极其激进的产能扩张

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为的就是吃下咱们刚才说的高端封装大单

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大家千万别以为这100亿就是画个大饼

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听听而已

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你看一季度的实际动作

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真金白银已经砸进去25个亿了

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同比飙升了63%

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这不仅说明钱到位了

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更说明管理层推行战略的急迫性

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和极强的执行力

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砸了这么多钱

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回报和风险肯定得一块儿算

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最后咱们进入第五部分

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看看大漠对它的风险和未来估值是怎么盘算的

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100亿可不是个小数目

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大摸给出的分析非常公允

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直接给你把牛熊两种情况摆在桌面上

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网豪立想

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如果通信计算消费电子

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这些终端需求复苏的很猛

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或者长电能比预期更快的

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把2.5D3D先进产能弄出来抢占市场

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那这波直接起飞

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但反过头来下行风险也是实打实的

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要是宏观需求起不来

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或者耗费巨资搞的先进产能迟迟交不了差

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达不了标准

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那这百亿级别的投资

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瞬间就会变成拖垮公司的巨大财务包袱

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所以呢综合了这些财务底子

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激进的扩产动作

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还有这些悬在头顶的风险

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大模套用他们的剩余收益模型

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给出了最终结论

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维持平配评级

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目标价卡在48.5元

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简单来说

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大魔觉得目前的股价基本已经合理

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反映了公司的价值和潜在风险

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建议大家保持中立

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稳一手好了

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今天这份大模的研报

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咱们就痛痛快快的拆解到这

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这可不仅仅是一堆枯燥的财务数据

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这其实是一场正在上演的

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真金白银的科技军备竞赛

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最后我想把这个问题抛给大家

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长电科技这高达100亿的先进产能大压柱

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究竟是能让他们一战封神

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在全球市场上独占鳌头

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还是会被疲软的消费端需求给无情拖累呢

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这绝对是一场值得咱们长期追踪的大戏

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感谢大家收看本期的深度解读

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咱们下期不见不散

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