BV16KRvBqEmX · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,620 大家好 2 00:00:00,620 --> 00:00:03,379 欢迎来到本期的深度解读 3 00:00:03,379 --> 00:00:07,429 今天咱们要聊点儿极其硬核的苹果 4 00:00:07,429 --> 00:00:10,669 具体来说是一份来自瑞新局团 5 00:00:10,669 --> 00:00:12,349 最新鲜出炉的报告 6 00:00:12,349 --> 00:00:15,919 这份报告揭示了一个特别有意思的现象 7 00:00:15,919 --> 00:00:18,260 在现在这种供应链逆风 8 00:00:18,260 --> 00:00:21,370 宏观经济挑战满天飞的情况下 9 00:00:21,370 --> 00:00:24,649 苹果到底是怎么交出一份简直让人惊 10 00:00:24,649 --> 00:00:26,710 掉下巴的超预期成绩单呢 11 00:00:26,710 --> 00:00:29,640 咱们先直接甩出一个核心数字啊 12 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,079 296美元没错 13 00:00:32,079 --> 00:00:35,439 这是瑞银给苹果定出的最新目标价 14 00:00:35,439 --> 00:00:36,700 你可能就纳闷儿了 15 00:00:36,700 --> 00:00:40,079 现在整个科技圈都在为零部件短缺呀 16 00:00:40,079 --> 00:00:41,380 成本飙升啊 17 00:00:41,380 --> 00:00:43,259 急得焦头烂额对吧 18 00:00:43,259 --> 00:00:43,899 凭什么 19 00:00:43,899 --> 00:00:47,640 瑞银这时候反而逆势上调了苹果的预期呢 20 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,268 这背后到底藏着什么神仙操作 21 00:00:50,268 --> 00:00:51,709 咱们今天的解读 22 00:00:51,709 --> 00:00:55,890 就顺着这个逻辑来快速拆解五个维度 23 00:00:55,890 --> 00:00:58,469 首先是逆势突围的大背景 24 00:00:58,469 --> 00:01:02,380 接着看看他们破纪录的硬件和服务业绩 25 00:01:02,380 --> 00:01:05,719 然后聊聊堪称奇迹的毛利率 26 00:01:05,719 --> 00:01:07,700 最后咱们再展望一下 27 00:01:07,700 --> 00:01:10,430 大家都盯着的AI战略催化剂 28 00:01:10,430 --> 00:01:11,950 好第一部分 29 00:01:11,950 --> 00:01:15,530 咱们先把时间线拉回2026年初 30 00:01:15,530 --> 00:01:18,849 看看当时的宏观大环境有多恶劣 31 00:01:18,849 --> 00:01:19,890 说实话 32 00:01:19,890 --> 00:01:23,469 当时市场情绪可以说是相当恐慌的 33 00:01:23,469 --> 00:01:25,280 大家都在担心什么呢 34 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,180 d ram和N的内存价格疯涨 35 00:01:28,180 --> 00:01:30,280 先进制程产能又受限 36 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,810 甚至还有零部件断供的风险 37 00:01:32,810 --> 00:01:34,829 投资者们捏了一把汗 38 00:01:34,829 --> 00:01:36,030 觉得这些因素 39 00:01:36,030 --> 00:01:39,170 绝对会大幅挤压苹果产品的利润空间 40 00:01:39,170 --> 00:01:41,719 但是呢转折点就在这儿 41 00:01:41,719 --> 00:01:44,530 苹果根本没被这些斑马索给绊倒 42 00:01:44,530 --> 00:01:46,709 人家靠的是过去几十年 43 00:01:46,709 --> 00:01:50,129 一点儿点儿抠出来建立起来的绝对供应链 44 00:01:50,129 --> 00:01:51,430 供应链掌控力 45 00:01:51,430 --> 00:01:53,590 这可不是一天两天能学来的 46 00:01:53,590 --> 00:01:55,459 这种强大的韧性 47 00:01:55,459 --> 00:01:57,900 硬生生的把危机扛了过去 48 00:01:57,900 --> 00:02:01,099 变成了让对手眼红的竞争优势 49 00:02:01,099 --> 00:02:03,400 那具体抗压效果怎么样呢 50 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,040 咱们进入第二部分 51 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,709 用实打实的硬件业绩说话 52 00:02:07,709 --> 00:02:09,129 数据一出来啊 53 00:02:09,129 --> 00:02:12,219 可以说是狠狠打了看衰者的脸 54 00:02:12,219 --> 00:02:14,159 苹果不但没退缩 55 00:02:14,159 --> 00:02:17,900 IPHONE营收直接干到了570亿美元 56 00:02:17,900 --> 00:02:19,719 同比暴涨22 57 00:02:19,719 --> 00:02:20,340 percent呐 58 00:02:20,340 --> 00:02:21,019 朋友们 59 00:02:21,019 --> 00:02:25,118 而且啊新款Mac mini和NEO也极其给力 60 00:02:25,118 --> 00:02:28,389 把Mac的营收推到了84亿美元 61 00:02:28,389 --> 00:02:33,299 这就是真金白银的硬实力证明还有个更夸张的 62 00:02:33,299 --> 00:02:34,318 第一季度 63 00:02:34,318 --> 00:02:38,218 IPHONE的全球智能手机市场份额不降反升 64 00:02:38,218 --> 00:02:40,520 直接飙到了22.1 65 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,500 在这么大的逆风局里 66 00:02:42,500 --> 00:02:44,580 还能继续抢占全球市场 67 00:02:44,580 --> 00:02:47,519 这绝对是霸主级别的统治力了 68 00:02:47,519 --> 00:02:48,799 聊完实体硬件 69 00:02:48,799 --> 00:02:50,959 咱们进入第三部分 70 00:02:50,959 --> 00:02:53,378 看看苹果的另一个大杀器 71 00:02:53,378 --> 00:02:58,180 也就是源源不断赚钱的数字生态系统服务业务 72 00:02:58,180 --> 00:03:01,219 大家对比一下这组数据就明白了 73 00:03:01,219 --> 00:03:04,060 一边是巨额的硬件销售 74 00:03:04,060 --> 00:03:07,819 另一边是高达310亿美元的服务业务 75 00:03:07,819 --> 00:03:08,620 营收啊 76 00:03:08,620 --> 00:03:12,949 你看苹果早就不是那个单纯卖设备的公司了 77 00:03:12,949 --> 00:03:16,270 他的商业模式现在极其健康和平衡 78 00:03:16,270 --> 00:03:18,849 软件生态正在疯狂变现 79 00:03:18,849 --> 00:03:21,610 这31亿是怎么打出来的 80 00:03:21,610 --> 00:03:24,849 服务业务的同比增长达到了16% 81 00:03:24,849 --> 00:03:27,550 比预测还要高出大概200个基点 82 00:03:27,550 --> 00:03:28,780 最厉害的是 83 00:03:28,780 --> 00:03:32,520 不管是在成熟的发达市场还是在新型市场 84 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,379 都实现了强劲的双位数增长 85 00:03:35,379 --> 00:03:39,520 而且多亏了这种产品组合服务业务的毛利率 86 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,079 居然达到了极其惊人的76.700 87 00:03:43,079 --> 00:03:45,639 简直是印钞机级别的表现 88 00:03:45,639 --> 00:03:50,300 提到高利润自然就来到了咱们第四部分的核心 89 00:03:50,300 --> 00:03:54,689 整个报告里最让人拍案叫绝的毛利率奇迹 90 00:03:54,689 --> 00:03:56,310 咱们得明确一点 91 00:03:56,310 --> 00:03:57,650 毛利率在这里 92 00:03:57,650 --> 00:04:00,680 可绝对不仅是个干巴巴的财务词汇 93 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,180 它是检验一家公司在成本狂飙的时候 94 00:04:04,180 --> 00:04:05,900 到底有没有定价权 95 00:04:05,900 --> 00:04:09,199 制造效率到底高不高的终极试金石 96 00:04:09,199 --> 00:04:11,259 市场原本怕得要死 97 00:04:11,259 --> 00:04:15,159 觉得内存涨价肯定会把利润吃得连骨头都不剩 98 00:04:15,159 --> 00:04:16,500 但现实呢 99 00:04:16,500 --> 00:04:19,899 苹果交出的答卷是高达49.3 100 00:04:19,899 --> 00:04:21,480 percent的总毛利率 101 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,360 直接粉碎了所有的质疑和担忧 102 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:29,220 瑞银分析师在报告里的这句评价非常精准 103 00:04:29,220 --> 00:04:31,079 苹果之所以这么牛 104 00:04:31,079 --> 00:04:35,168 是因为他们特别聪明的利用了充足的结转库存 105 00:04:35,168 --> 00:04:37,528 再加上关税影响降低 106 00:04:37,528 --> 00:04:40,670 完美化解了内存涨价的暴击 107 00:04:40,670 --> 00:04:45,678 他们真的上演了一场名副其实的成本控制奇迹 108 00:04:45,678 --> 00:04:47,379 利润率这么一暴涨 109 00:04:47,379 --> 00:04:51,408 直接结果就是净利润跟着水涨船高 110 00:04:51,408 --> 00:04:52,689 出色的业绩 111 00:04:52,689 --> 00:04:55,048 逼得分析师们纷纷上调了苹果 112 00:04:55,048 --> 00:04:59,310 2026财年和2027财年的每股收益预期 113 00:04:59,310 --> 00:05:01,370 正是这种强悍的韧性 114 00:05:01,370 --> 00:05:04,309 给了市场看高一线的底气好 115 00:05:04,309 --> 00:05:06,309 最后咱们进入第五部分 116 00:05:06,309 --> 00:05:07,488 展望未来 117 00:05:07,488 --> 00:05:11,139 特别是大家最关心的AI战略催化剂 118 00:05:11,139 --> 00:05:13,180 苹果对接下来的6月份 119 00:05:13,180 --> 00:05:16,089 给出了极其积极的业绩指引 120 00:05:16,089 --> 00:05:20,250 预计总营收能增长14%到17 121 00:05:20,250 --> 00:05:24,550 要知道这可是顶着供应链限制给出的预期啊 122 00:05:24,550 --> 00:05:28,199 远远超过了市场之前估计的个位数增长 123 00:05:28,199 --> 00:05:30,860 管理层的信心简直爆棚 124 00:05:30,860 --> 00:05:32,720 不过有意思的是 125 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:33,939 估值逻辑 126 00:05:33,939 --> 00:05:36,920 虽然啊目标价调到了296美元 127 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,279 但瑞行给出的市盈率乘数其实没变 128 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:41,548 还是30倍 129 00:05:41,548 --> 00:05:45,569 这个倍数和过去3年的历史平均水平基本一致 130 00:05:45,569 --> 00:05:49,680 对标标普500的溢价也就维持在40分三左右 131 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,980 这说明目前的股价上涨 132 00:05:51,980 --> 00:05:54,399 更多是扎扎实实的业绩驱动 133 00:05:54,399 --> 00:05:56,560 而不是在吹估值的泡泡 134 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:58,839 报告最后也明确指出 135 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,930 在大家对苹果的AI战略彻底服气之前 136 00:06:02,930 --> 00:06:06,100 市场的估值框架可能不会有太大改变 137 00:06:06,100 --> 00:06:08,480 这就留下了一个超级大悬念 138 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,879 即将到来的全球开发者大会 139 00:06:10,879 --> 00:06:13,459 苹果备受瞩目的AI底牌 140 00:06:13,459 --> 00:06:16,000 到底能不能彻底打消疑虑 141 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,819 成功解锁一次重大的估值重估呢 142 00:06:18,819 --> 00:06:22,459 这头柯基巨象能不能在AI时代再次起飞 143 00:06:22,459 --> 00:06:24,339 真的让人非常期待 144 00:06:24,339 --> 00:06:28,040 希望今天的解读能帮大家看清苹果真实的底盘 145 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,720 咱们下期再见
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