【The Motley Fool】暴跌50%后，Robinhood股价已到转折点：赌徒平台or财富中心？

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一年前罗宾汉几乎无可挑剔

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但股价从高位下跌了近50%

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就在2025年末尾

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这家公司是否真的陷入困境

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还是罗宾汉的故事正在改变

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我有一位投资者可能有答案

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我叫特拉维斯·霍亚姆

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今天欢迎约翰·夸斯讨论罗宾汉

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约翰·罗宾汉上周公布了财报

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这是我见过最有趣的财报之一

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因为一年前罗宾汉增长了100%

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同比来看

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他们

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当时似乎无所不能

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本季度

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市场反应非常剧烈

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财报后股价暴跌14%

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但深入看数据

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这家公司的故事似乎在变化

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回想疫情时期

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这是YOLO交易平台

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人们都在购买零日期权

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如今情况已彻底改变

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这对公司财务是利空

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但罗宾汉是否在成熟化

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作为我们长期投资者希望的方向

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从关键指标看确实在成熟

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朝着我们希望的方向

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有很多衡量方式

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我稍后会详细分析

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但管理的退休资产规模是关键指标

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显示投资基础正在扩大

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我认为这是积极的

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然而

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首先明确

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这仍是活跃交易者平台

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事实上

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CEO弗拉德·滕诺夫表示要成为活跃交易者第一

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说我们希望你感觉在其他平台交易有劣势

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除了罗宾汉

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仍专注此方向

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第一季度收入42%

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来自融资利息

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期权和交易费

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交易费用

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这些都来自活跃交易者

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主要收入来源

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仍是业务核心

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但我们正在转型

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没错

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我们来回顾一些数据

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因为我觉得这里面存在一些显著的差异

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罗宾汉目前的状况

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与它实际在2024年大选前的情况

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这确实是一个有趣的分水岭

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如果你还记得，那正是加密货币飙升的时刻

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疯狂至极

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在这张图表中可以看到

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2024年第四季度加密货币收入

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在2024年第四季度激增至3.58亿美元

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相比前一季度的6100万美元大幅增长

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正是这一年同比爆发式增长的起点

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但过去五个季度增速明显放缓

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加密货币领域其实

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我不认为进入寒冬

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但已进入小幅低迷期

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如今收入已降至1.434亿美元

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最新季度的数据

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期权业务也呈现相似趋势

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仍是其重要业务板块

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但长期爆发力已不如从前

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这是否意味着减少对期权和加密货币的依赖是积极的

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还是我在过度解读数据

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不

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你完全没过度解读

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事实上观察罗宾汉

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从愿景层面

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本质上希望成为全球交易平台

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涵盖各类资产

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如果我们回溯时间

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最初仅专注股票交易

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不知道多少年前

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几年前仅限股票并逐步拓展

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加密货币曾为增长提供强劲动力

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因此可以推断

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若进一步多元化业务

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涵盖其计划拓展的领域

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预测市场是否值得探讨

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但公司正在大力布局的新方向

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带来更多可能性

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长期增强收入潜力

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而非依赖单一市场

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单一产品线

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你提到产品线

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这确实很有趣

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我会上图展示他们展示的幻灯片

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但他们的产品迭代速度常被强调

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仅看今年前三个月

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新增更多加密货币

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新增更多预测市场

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你知道吧

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我不知道

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这究竟是好是坏

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长期的罗宾汉链

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所以将资产转移到区块链测试网启动

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他们推出了一张新白金卡

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他们的创业基金

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我认为这至少是个有趣的产品

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在过去几年里

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推出了黄金信用卡

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你知道吧

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这就是其中一个原因

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我是黄金会员

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所以我经常使用这些产品

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他们以前没有罗思IRA账户

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现在正进军托管账户业务

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顺便说他们赢得了与美国政府的合作项目

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嗯那个

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这家经纪公司

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他们基本上在搭建平台

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这些

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这些儿童特朗普账户

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所以这将会

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这会是独立的

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但我认为你说得对

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这确实显示出必须分析他们的财务和产品路线

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以及这家企业正在以完全不同的方式运作

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需要分别分析

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因为这已不再是当初的公司了

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你知道的

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交易时火花四溅

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即使是十五美元的股票

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现在它已成为一个家庭长期积累财富的平台

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这似乎标志着成熟

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罗宾汉曾因缺乏成熟度受到批评

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但看来正在接近成熟

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这是一个有点痛苦的过程

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是的

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这

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当你想到这一点确实意义重大

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当我们说科技原生公司有优势时

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并非指产品一定创新

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但能以极快速度精准推向市场

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更具市场灵活性

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因为它是科技原生公司

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这也是劣势所在

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传统巨头通常无法快速响应

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所以

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从投资角度观察

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这一点非常重要

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你提到了特朗普的账户

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这是一个非常有趣的视角

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实际上直到七月四日才开始逐步增加

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当事情真正起飞时

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这有可能成为

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是的

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孩子们从小就很熟悉罗宾hood

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由于这次操作

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这确实非常值得密切关注

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是的

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这将成为一项成本

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同时也是一个业务

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因此不会成为巨大的收入或增长驱动力

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他们提到要增加一亿美元成本以调整预测

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但政府将承担这部分费用

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嗯

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支付这笔费用

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所以是的

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这更多是熟悉罗宾hood

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你知道的

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适应这个平台

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而这将会

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你知道的

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潜在数百万新客户

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我想谈谈我一直在关注的一个趋势

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是用户趋势

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因为过去几年对罗宾hood的批评

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是他们增长乏力

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像sofi这样的公司我们通常看

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他们正在增加

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你知道的

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会员数量增长30%

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同比

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罗宾hood没有做到这一点

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我想指出几个数据

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他们报告的月活跃用户在2024年第四季度达到峰值

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2024年第四季度

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我们讨论过这个激增

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你知道的

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大约在选举期间

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正是那时发生的

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十四点

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九百万月活跃用户

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实际上降至十三点

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五百万同期

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不过这里可能反映了业务成熟

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已开户客户数量持续增长

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即不活跃客户的占比

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那些只是

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我有一些股票

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我有一些

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你知道罗宾汉的指数基金

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也许我有一个退休账户

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我们稍后会谈到这个

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但这一比例的人群在上升

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就是那个你知道的

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这不会推动收入增长

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但会增强企业的持续性

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所以拥有更多不活跃客户是否是积极的

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这不是他们公布的指标

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但某种程度上

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从数据中提取出来

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他们确实会报告

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是的

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以及更多高价值客户

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我认为这就是一般的商业启示

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如果你有一百万客户带来一美元收入

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或者一个客户带来一百万美元收入

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你当然想要后者

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就像罗宾汉拥有高价值客户一样

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所以是的

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也许用户趋势不如以前

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但我们正在淘汰部分小额活跃交易者

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这些并不真正影响

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完全没起作用

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现在我们正推动大额存款并逐步增长

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这是一个非常好的趋势

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说到这些存款

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你之前提到的退休账户

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当你看结果时

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我认为有一件事必须突出

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罗宾汉的退休账户数量

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要知道这本身是个年轻业务

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但过去一年增长了50%

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一点三

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从两百万增至近两百万客户

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00:09:02,690 --> 00:09:05,710
在罗宾汉有退休账户

238
00:09:05,710 --> 00:09:08,528
这些退休账户的资产

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00:09:08,528 --> 00:09:08,828
所以

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00:09:08,828 --> 00:09:11,269
尽管我们经历了较弱的市场

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00:09:11,269 --> 00:09:15,818
对于通常与罗宾汉投资者相关的股票类型

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00:09:15,818 --> 00:09:18,899
达到144亿美元

243
00:09:18,899 --> 00:09:20,719
增至274亿美元

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00:09:20,719 --> 00:09:22,558
增长90%

245
00:09:22,558 --> 00:09:27,169
每账户托管资产

246
00:09:27,169 --> 00:09:32,070
他们也报告这一指标已增至约14000美元

247
00:09:32,070 --> 00:09:36,820
这明显朝着正确方向发展

248
00:09:36,820 --> 00:09:38,559
但权衡是

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00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,549
你不会有这么高的收入

250
00:09:41,549 --> 00:09:42,590
高利润率

251
00:09:42,590 --> 00:09:43,070
你知道吗

252
00:09:43,070 --> 00:09:45,029
加密货币和期权交易这些将成为

253
00:09:45,029 --> 00:09:46,149
但这些有可能会成为

254
00:09:46,149 --> 00:09:50,909
未来二十年到四十年推动你业务的人群

255
00:09:50,909 --> 00:09:54,509
如果你想成为一家五十年到一百年的企业

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作为一家经纪公司

257
00:09:56,870 --> 00:09:58,850
必须要有退休账户业务

258
00:09:58,850 --> 00:10:02,440
我的意思是很多人会认为这是三十年的锁定期

259
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:03,480
可能没错

260
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:03,740
是的

261
00:10:03,740 --> 00:10:04,120
我是说

262
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,350
这可是个巨大的事情

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你看

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我们之前讨论的另一个话题

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罗宾hood正在推出的金融产品

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00:10:10,389 --> 00:10:13,049
为投资者构建股息工具

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00:10:13,049 --> 00:10:13,269
现在

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他们只是尝试这样做

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嗯

270
00:10:15,610 --> 00:10:20,149
我读到这个时不禁莞尔

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00:10:20,149 --> 00:10:23,610
因为你脑海中有个罗宾hood及其用户的刻板印象

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00:10:23,610 --> 00:10:24,980
而你不会想到

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00:10:24,980 --> 00:10:28,860
他们真正需要的是公司开发的股息工具

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00:10:28,860 --> 00:10:30,100
这完全出乎你的预料

275
00:10:30,100 --> 00:10:30,659
但没错

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00:10:30,659 --> 00:10:33,919
这表明用户群体正在快速增长

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00:10:33,919 --> 00:10:35,940
正转向长期投资思维

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00:10:35,940 --> 00:10:37,909
而这正是股息投资者的特点

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00:10:37,909 --> 00:10:38,970
所以没错

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00:10:38,970 --> 00:10:41,830
这与平台层面的变化完全契合

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00:10:41,830 --> 00:10:44,730
我想先谈谈业务的技术层面

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00:10:44,730 --> 00:10:47,289
稍后我们再讨论估值

283
00:10:47,289 --> 00:10:48,970
但纵观罗宾hood的发展轨迹

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00:10:48,970 --> 00:10:52,440
我们接触过多家金融机构

285
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,539
嗯

286
00:10:55,539 --> 00:10:56,019
我认为目前来看是最接近的镜像

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00:10:56,019 --> 00:10:58,860
交易量在下降

288
00:10:59,549 --> 00:11:00,769
这并不令人意外

289
00:11:00,769 --> 00:11:02,450
像期权交易

290
00:11:02,450 --> 00:11:04,289
加密货币交易量下降

291
00:11:04,289 --> 00:11:05,809
这将影响罗宾hood的短期业绩

292
00:11:05,809 --> 00:11:08,549
但从长期来看

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00:11:08,549 --> 00:11:10,850
他们推出的产品

294
00:11:10,850 --> 00:11:12,389
嗯

295
00:11:12,389 --> 00:11:13,049
用户增长的势头或停滞

296
00:11:13,049 --> 00:11:14,830
视角度而定

297
00:11:14,830 --> 00:11:16,029
从用户角度看

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00:11:16,029 --> 00:11:17,549
你认为这家企业能否持续高速增长

299
00:11:17,549 --> 00:11:23,220
你知道过去五年复合年增长率达25%

300
00:11:23,220 --> 00:11:28,059
这家企业的增长潜力

301
00:11:28,059 --> 00:11:30,399
你知道如果能坚持十年的话

302
00:11:30,399 --> 00:11:32,889
这将使你成为一个庞大的企业

303
00:11:32,889 --> 00:11:37,929
这是能够长期持续增长收入的公司吗

304
00:11:37,929 --> 00:11:40,678
至少对投资者来说值得关注

305
00:11:40,678 --> 00:11:44,919
我认为罗宾汉将继续以高复合增长率增长

306
00:11:44,919 --> 00:11:49,490
但我认为我们将看到增长速度的持续波动

307
00:11:49,490 --> 00:11:52,009
不会是稳定的

308
00:11:52,009 --> 00:11:53,970
今年大概10%

309
00:11:53,970 --> 00:11:55,470
明年12%然后11%

310
00:11:55,470 --> 00:11:58,220
不会像这样因为Axon企业

311
00:11:58,220 --> 00:11:58,600
是的

312
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,820
正是这个原因

313
00:12:00,820 --> 00:12:06,340
仍有大量收入来自活跃交易用户

314
00:12:06,340 --> 00:12:11,159
现在我们处于牛市行情中这对他们有利

315
00:12:11,159 --> 00:12:15,229
现在还不知道何时会出现熊市

316
00:12:15,229 --> 00:12:16,528
会有回调

317
00:12:16,528 --> 00:12:17,948
会有崩盘

318
00:12:17,948 --> 00:12:23,690
那时收入增长会大幅放缓

319
00:12:23,690 --> 00:12:27,490
其他业务能否弥补这一缺口

320
00:12:27,490 --> 00:12:28,769
并维持增长

321
00:12:28,769 --> 00:12:30,389
还不确定是否已准备好

322
00:12:30,389 --> 00:12:33,049
但如果从五年或更长期看

323
00:12:33,049 --> 00:12:33,549
是的

324
00:12:33,549 --> 00:12:35,350
能看到持续稳定的增长

325
00:12:35,350 --> 00:12:37,350
能超越市场表现

326
00:12:37,710 --> 00:12:39,870
他们还很好地控制了成本

327
00:12:39,870 --> 00:12:41,529
需要提到的是控制成本

328
00:12:41,529 --> 00:12:42,570
现在现金流为正

329
00:12:42,570 --> 00:12:43,769
实现自由现金流

330
00:12:43,769 --> 00:12:45,309
所以现在

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00:12:45,309 --> 00:12:49,190
这家公司已不同于2021年

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00:12:49,190 --> 00:12:49,950
经历了

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00:12:49,950 --> 00:12:51,090
2022年那段时期

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00:12:51,090 --> 00:12:52,230
市场处于下行

335
00:12:52,230 --> 00:12:53,870
尤其是高增长板块

336
00:12:53,870 --> 00:12:57,210
财务状况几乎崩溃

337
00:12:57,210 --> 00:12:59,999
看起来公司

338
00:12:59,999 --> 00:13:03,019
或CEO Vlad已成熟许多

339
00:13:03,019 --> 00:13:03,379
好的

340
00:13:03,379 --> 00:13:05,159
尽管如此

341
00:13:05,159 --> 00:13:06,519
看看这只股票

342
00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:09,159
市销率为14倍

343
00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:09,919
嗯

344
00:13:09,919 --> 00:13:12,539
基于历史自由现金流市盈率23倍

345
00:13:12,539 --> 00:13:13,440
基于未来预期

346
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:14,990
达到43倍

347
00:13:15,309 --> 00:13:18,269
今天是否是投资良机

348
00:13:18,269 --> 00:13:22,318
或仍被高估

349
00:13:22,318 --> 00:13:23,619
绝对估值而言

350
00:13:23,619 --> 00:13:26,119
目前仍被严重高估

351
00:13:26,119 --> 00:13:27,298
这值得吗

352
00:13:27,298 --> 00:13:34,429
考虑到未来五到十年它应该能创造的增长

353
00:13:34,429 --> 00:13:36,029
我认为可能值得

354
00:13:36,029 --> 00:13:39,860
但我也相信投资者最终会获得更好的交易

355
00:13:39,860 --> 00:13:41,500
这有点危险

356
00:13:41,500 --> 00:13:42,980
因为这有点市场时机选择

357
00:13:42,980 --> 00:13:44,019
这有点预测性质

358
00:13:44,019 --> 00:13:46,490
股票走势和市场情绪会如何发展

359
00:13:46,490 --> 00:13:50,730
但再次强调我们正处于狂热牛市之中

360
00:13:50,730 --> 00:13:51,009
现在

361
00:13:51,009 --> 00:13:54,080
过去三年的惊人回报率

362
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,960
我认为市场情绪可能会转变

363
00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,120
可能会有更好的交易机会

364
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,220
但当前是否是个糟糕的时机

365
00:14:00,220 --> 00:14:01,580
我不觉得这是糟糕的时机

366
00:14:01,580 --> 00:14:03,950
从长期看你仍能在Robinhood获利

367
00:14:03,950 --> 00:14:04,909
如果采取长期视角

368
00:14:04,909 --> 00:14:05,870
但啊

369
00:14:05,870 --> 00:14:08,109
未来可能会有更好的交易

370
00:14:08,109 --> 00:14:09,889
或许可以定投

371
00:14:09,889 --> 00:14:11,729
股价已下跌50%

372
00:14:11,729 --> 00:14:12,808
嗯但确实

373
00:14:12,808 --> 00:14:13,969
开始建仓

374
00:14:13,969 --> 00:14:15,909
现在可能不是

375
00:14:15,909 --> 00:14:17,049
可能不是最差选择

376
00:14:17,049 --> 00:14:17,350
嗯

377
00:14:17,350 --> 00:14:18,389
这是我持有的持仓组合

378
00:14:18,389 --> 00:14:18,909
你持有股份

379
00:14:18,909 --> 00:14:19,750
当前的Robinhood股票

380
00:14:19,750 --> 00:14:21,429
今天我不持有

381
00:14:21,429 --> 00:14:21,870
好的

382
00:14:21,870 --> 00:14:22,610
我们拭目以待

383
00:14:22,610 --> 00:14:22,970
嗯

384
00:14:22,970 --> 00:14:25,470
如果约翰有兴趣买入的价格

385
00:14:25,470 --> 00:14:27,549
请分享你对Robinhood的看法

386
00:14:27,549 --> 00:14:29,349
在下方评论区留言股票信息

387
00:14:29,349 --> 00:14:32,188
别忘了在YouTube关注Motive Fool

388
00:14:32,188 --> 00:14:33,969
我们很快回来继续

389
00:14:33,969 --> 00:14:36,389
感谢观看 大家下次见

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