【NaNa说美股】20260408川宝：挣钱嘛 不寒碜！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月8号周三

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昨天盘后川普呢再次上演了川四打脸

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原本还喊着绝不延期

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结果在最后关头还是选择了先踩刹车

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美国以色列

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伊朗

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三方达成了一份充满政治妥协味道的两周

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临时停火协议

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并且约好周六在伊斯兰堡开启谈判

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消息出来后

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空头们集体破防

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最先反应的是能源市场

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国际油价瞬间跳水暴跌

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停火协议的达成

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哪怕这个协议只是一个试用版

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只要最坏的情况没发生

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市场就先把之前的恐慌溢价全部吐出来

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彭博提到

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目前呢仍有800多艘船滞留在波斯湾内

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船东们现在正一边骂娘

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一边研堵停火协议的具体条款

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想趁这个窗口期嗯

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把货先运出去

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不过呢全部放行

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那是不可能的哈

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伊朗外长今天称

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在两周内经由伊朗武装力量协调

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并且考虑到技术限制

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霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行将成为可能

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翻译成人话的话就是海峡重开可以

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但是得经过我的收费站

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而技术限制呢意味着放行多少

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全看哥的心情

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这就是绑匪与人质的标准桥段嘛

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可以放几个活口

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但是不能全放

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这样才有筹码

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继续和警察磨牙

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据华尔街日报披露

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伊朗开出的价码是每天只限流十余艘

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而且要收过路费

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航运运营商称

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费用呢通常要提前一周确定

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并且根据船只的规模而定哈

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一艘可运载大约200万桶原油的超大型邮轮

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费用最高可达200万美元

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实际上放行的连十艘都不到船舶嗯

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追踪数据显示

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今天就只有四艘船获准通信

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为4月以来最低水平

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而且其中部分还是伊朗自己的船

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更离谱的是

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停火的墨迹还没干呢

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伊朗媒体就宣称

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因为以色列袭击了黎巴嫩

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再次全面关闭海峡

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并且迫使邮轮返航

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这种薛定谔式的停火意味着

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国际油价在经历了这个一波踩踏之后

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很难真正跌破80美元哈

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大概率就是在90美元上方继续蹦迪了

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白宫那帮人呢嘴上对给民众们吹嘘说

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已经达成了军事目标

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展现了美国的力量

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可事实上呃达成什么了

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伊朗的浓缩铀没有被拿走

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中东盟友们的能源基础设施被严重破坏

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迪拜的国际金融中心的梦碎

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更讽刺的是

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没打仗之前

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霍尔木兹海峡海是自由通行的

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打完之后

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伊朗反而能在海峡收费了

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这更更离谱的是

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川普居然还说要和革命卫队合伙开黑店哈

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竟然还被标榜为美妙的MANA成果

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实在是唉让中东盟友们

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让全世界人都无言以对啊

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这一仗可真的是让伊朗打出了信心

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打出了地区威慑力

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还把神棍们都给打年轻了

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因为那一批老的一波送走嘛

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全球股市呢倒是没有心思理会这些细节

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直接开启了暴利反弹模式

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标普500开盘就暴力捅破了年限哈

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最高触及6793点

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直接干穿了我昨天预估的这个

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6750的上限

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由于此前机构们对冲过度

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就持有大量的期货空单

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空头回补的染料极其充足

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不过当指数摸到6800附近的时候

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短期停火的利好已经基本全额兑现

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空桶都灭光了哈

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市场现在就需要真实多头入场接办

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但是目前在高位追涨的更多是短线博弈

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资金与丰富的散户

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大型机构呢在6750点以上的买入意愿

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以及明显减弱

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他们担心所谓的这两周停火

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只是把矛盾给往后推了

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更像是给美军调动和后勤补给争取时间

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而并非真正的和平

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另外呢根据sport伽马数据

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6800点附近

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躺着大约100亿美元的正向伽马

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这将对指数的进一步上行形成阻力

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周线级别指数周K正面临着20周均线的压力

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而6840呢又是呃GPM的领子

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看涨

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上线对冲卖盘在那里就容易形成比较大的抛压

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所以理性的资金或者快钱也好呃

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会在6800整数关口

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到6840阻力区之间呢

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做一部分的获利量级

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而不是在这个地方继续去加杠杆冲锋呃

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等周五的CPI

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而在科技股的主战场

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QQ今天涨近3%

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重返年限后

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50均线暂时在半年线下遇阻

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距离分值的回撤幅度只有大约5%了

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每次暴跌之后啊

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资金第一时间最爱抱回去的永远还是大科技

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AI半导体这些最吃风险偏好和利率环境的板块

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不过呢尽管风险偏好回归

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让科技股今天带头冲锋

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但是日线级别这个巨大的M头双顶

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依然对反弹形成了结构压制

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如果QQQ站不稳半年线

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那么今天的狂欢呢

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就只能被定义为技术性反弹哈

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接下来能不能够继续往上走

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取决于停火能否持续

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以及周五即将公布的CPI

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会不会重新打乱市场节奏

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同时小盘股AWM也跳涨了3%

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通胀担忧缓和

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利率预期下行

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最受益的就是小盘股了

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但也正因为他们今天涨的太凶了

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后面如果指数在高位出现震荡

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那这种高弹性的板块

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也会是第一批被拿来做波段兑现的对象啊

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所以呢这个位置不要追的太上头了

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今天美联储公布的3月会议纪要

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也给多头送了一份冷菜哈

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会议纪要显示嗯

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绝大多数与会者指出

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通胀下2%目标迈进的进程可能慢于预期

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同时认为通胀持续高于目标的风险有所上升

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更多官员提及加息的可能性

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但又时有冲击呢

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可能会导致通胀进一步上升

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虽然呃市场今天被停火的肾上腺素给顶着哈

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对于这一份鹰派纪要反应平淡嗯

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但是等对停火的这个最初的兴奋过去之后呢

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市场迟早会发现诶

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油价怎么又涨回去了

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10年期间收益率也从4.23%

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又拉回到4.3%附近了

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科技股的估值压力并没有真正的消失

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费城半导体指数呢今天大涨超6%

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成分股中英特尔涨超11.4%

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陈长老抱上了马斯克这一根粗壮的大腿

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公司宣布加入马斯克野心勃勃的半导体项目

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Ta fab

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目标呢是每年产出高达一太瓦的计算能力

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推动人工智能和机器人技术发展

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虽然这种画大饼的风格横马斯克哈

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大家知道这个以太网的计算能力

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需要多少电力吗

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但是呢市场显然很吃这一套呀

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对于英特尔来说

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这不仅仅是产能的合作

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更是他的代工业务在尊严上的回光返照

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毕竟如果能够帮马斯克的擎天机器人

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造心脏的话

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那英特尔就算是上了AI的这个牌桌了

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恐惧瞬间蒸发

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这意味着市场最害怕的那一部分

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尾部风险哈被卸掉了

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资金不再用最坏的情形去定价一切了

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还没有进入真正可以躺平的舒服区

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美元指数今天明显回落

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这是典型的风险偏好切换信号

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在这一轮中东冲突期间呢

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美元就一直扮演着主要避险资产角色

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流动性最强

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最安全

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现在停火了

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那市场就重新开始追逐风险资产板块表现上

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今天的划分呢极其割裂哈

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之前吃战争红利的油气化肥板块全线溃败

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遭到了资金的获利了结

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化工板块的cf工业盘出还一度跌超17%

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但是随着这个后面海峡再次被关闭的消息

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股价盘中就持续回升

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收窄了日内跌幅嗯

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陶氏化学日内走势也雷同

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就低开高走

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油气剧透

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XO美孚呢盘出跌近8%

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尾盘收窄了大约一半跌幅

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等后面资金开始意识到

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即便有两周的停火

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中东能源供应链的结构性破坏已成定局嗯

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股价可能还会再次反弹

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和能源板块形成鲜明对比的是

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航空邮轮以及整个出行链条

213
00:09:24,820 --> 00:09:26,440
今天呢集体走强

214
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,279
成为停火利好侠

215
00:09:28,279 --> 00:09:30,019
最直接的受益方

216
00:09:30,019 --> 00:09:34,190
下CCL这个嘉年华邮轮哈今天跳空高开

217
00:09:34,190 --> 00:09:35,370
涨超11%

218
00:09:35,370 --> 00:09:36,960
表现非常的亮眼

219
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,980
达美航空今天股价高开低走

220
00:09:39,980 --> 00:09:42,000
盘初也一度涨近12%

221
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,159
但是盘中持续回落

222
00:09:44,159 --> 00:09:48,120
最后尾盘涨幅收窄到只有3.75%

223
00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,500
公司一季度的业绩大体好于市场预期

224
00:09:51,500 --> 00:09:52,720
达美CEO还提到

225
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,149
由于此前燃油成本飙升

226
00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:58,730
航空公司接下来呢会在短期内明显减少

227
00:09:58,730 --> 00:10:00,529
运力增长计划

228
00:10:00,529 --> 00:10:03,529
整个行业正在主动收缩供给

229
00:10:03,529 --> 00:10:05,620
控制扩张的节奏

230
00:10:05,620 --> 00:10:08,399
这对航空股来说其实也未必是坏事

231
00:10:08,399 --> 00:10:10,779
因为一旦运力扩张放缓

232
00:10:10,779 --> 00:10:13,379
那供需关系就更容易维持平衡

233
00:10:13,379 --> 00:10:15,820
票价呢也更容易撑住行业

234
00:10:15,820 --> 00:10:18,230
利润率反而可能因此得到保护

235
00:10:18,230 --> 00:10:19,210
与此同时

236
00:10:19,210 --> 00:10:20,070
达美还透露

237
00:10:20,070 --> 00:10:23,830
公司预计第二季度能从他旗下的炼油厂获得

238
00:10:23,830 --> 00:10:25,460
大约3亿美元的利润

239
00:10:25,460 --> 00:10:26,059
这意味着

240
00:10:26,059 --> 00:10:29,440
达美并不是单纯暴露在高油价风险下的

241
00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,419
纯燃油成本受害者哈

242
00:10:31,419 --> 00:10:34,409
他实际上还有一部分炼油端的收益

243
00:10:34,409 --> 00:10:37,109
可以对冲油价波动带来的压力

244
00:10:37,109 --> 00:10:41,928
公司在这个油价波动环境下的抗压能力和利润

245
00:10:41,928 --> 00:10:44,828
弹性呢比他的同行们都要更强

246
00:10:44,828 --> 00:10:46,089
整体而言啊

247
00:10:46,089 --> 00:10:50,039
我们说大盘目前就是阶段性的缓解

248
00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:52,519
后面的走势呢依旧会有反复

249
00:10:52,519 --> 00:10:53,639
今天暴涨了哈

250
00:10:53,639 --> 00:10:54,899
明天可能就回落

251
00:10:54,899 --> 00:10:57,080
后天再来一条地远新闻

252
00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,279
市场又可能重新抽分

253
00:10:59,279 --> 00:11:01,960
甚至这个14天没有弹完

254
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,429
两边就可能出现局部开火

255
00:11:04,429 --> 00:11:08,450
如果明天周四或者周五没有持续的利好支撑

256
00:11:08,450 --> 00:11:09,659
指数回落的话

257
00:11:09,659 --> 00:11:13,240
那么第一支撑位就是回踩6700点

258
00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:14,940
其次是这条年线哈

259
00:11:14,940 --> 00:11:18,078
要确认这个突破是否真正有效

260
00:11:18,078 --> 00:11:21,269
若是回踩之后得到有效支撑

261
00:11:21,649 --> 00:11:23,289
把底部给夯实了

262
00:11:23,289 --> 00:11:25,789
指数才能够放心的去冲击

263
00:11:25,789 --> 00:11:28,159
六千八七千点高位区间

264
00:11:28,159 --> 00:11:30,340
要说回踩跌破了年限啊

265
00:11:30,340 --> 00:11:33,729
那这个呃这里就是虚假的买盘

266
00:11:33,729 --> 00:11:36,599
那可能就要走这个第二只脚了是吧

267
00:11:36,599 --> 00:11:37,038
行

268
00:11:37,038 --> 00:11:39,038
今天我们就简单说到这里

269
00:11:39,038 --> 00:11:40,460
那我们明天见拜拜

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