BV15gjQ6LEcJ · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:04,139 --> 00:00:04,860 大家好 2 00:00:04,860 --> 00:00:07,299 今天是6月23号星期二 3 00:00:07,299 --> 00:00:09,589 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:09,589 --> 00:00:12,730 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:12,730 --> 00:00:19,730 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票全除股抛售 6 00:00:19,730 --> 00:00:21,609 英伟达减产预期 7 00:00:21,609 --> 00:00:27,489 与HBM4扩产放缓的双重冲击 8 00:00:28,719 --> 00:00:32,520 韩国媒体报道触发全球市场恐慌 9 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:37,710 一篇韩国行业报道在全球市场引发连锁反应 10 00:00:37,820 --> 00:00:44,189 将高带宽存储芯片供应前景的隐忧推至台前 11 00:00:44,189 --> 00:00:45,710 该报道指出 12 00:00:45,710 --> 00:00:49,939 SK海力士正放缓第六代高带宽 13 00:00:49,939 --> 00:00:53,689 存储芯片的量产扩张节奏 14 00:00:53,689 --> 00:00:58,890 并将资源重新倾斜至通用型DRAM市场 15 00:00:58,890 --> 00:01:02,409 成为触发存储股大幅回调的导火索 16 00:01:03,409 --> 00:01:07,150 英伟达芯片减产预期冲击产业链 17 00:01:07,469 --> 00:01:09,609 报道援引知情人士称 18 00:01:09,609 --> 00:01:11,890 鉴于英伟达下一代芯片 19 00:01:11,890 --> 00:01:16,150 RUBIN的生产预测持续下调 20 00:01:16,879 --> 00:01:19,280 SK海力士管理层已无必要 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,689 加速推进向HBM4的产线转换 22 00:01:23,689 --> 00:01:26,250 这一表态直接冲击了市场 23 00:01:26,250 --> 00:01:30,450 对高端AI基础设施需求强劲的预期 24 00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:34,569 令相关产业链承受巨大压力 25 00:01:36,019 --> 00:01:39,599 通用DM利润率反超HBM 26 00:01:39,599 --> 00:01:42,879 韩国媒体报道的核心逻辑在于 27 00:01:42,879 --> 00:01:46,109 存储市场内部盈利结构的变化 28 00:01:46,109 --> 00:01:47,870 截至今年一季度 29 00:01:47,870 --> 00:01:51,629 通用型DRAM与HBM之间 30 00:01:51,629 --> 00:01:57,239 的营业利润率差距已扩大至逾15个百分点 31 00:01:57,239 --> 00:02:00,560 通用DRM反而占据优势 32 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,359 促使SK海力士正式竞争对手 33 00:02:04,359 --> 00:02:10,039 通过通用DRM获取丰厚利润的现实 34 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,740 SK海力士重新配置产线资源 35 00:02:13,740 --> 00:02:16,829 在利润率倒挂的背景下 36 00:02:16,829 --> 00:02:22,389 SK海力士正延迟将部分第五代HBM产线 37 00:02:22,389 --> 00:02:25,490 转换为HBM4的计划 38 00:02:25,490 --> 00:02:31,009 转而加大对通用DRM市场的供应响应能力 39 00:02:31,009 --> 00:02:34,990 外界普遍将其与微软签署3年期 40 00:02:34,990 --> 00:02:37,310 DDR5供应合同 41 00:02:37,310 --> 00:02:41,229 解读为公司在通用DRAM领域 42 00:02:41,229 --> 00:02:45,509 锁定长期收益能见度的举措 43 00:02:46,259 --> 00:02:50,659 华尔街看多DRM周期存分歧 44 00:02:50,939 --> 00:02:56,329 多家海外投行研判与上述战略取向相互印证 45 00:02:56,329 --> 00:03:01,699 将整体存储价格周期视为估值核心驱动因素 46 00:03:01,699 --> 00:03:04,599 然而HBM4扩产放缓 47 00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:07,139 也为竞争对手打开了窗口 48 00:03:07,139 --> 00:03:11,400 若三星电子下半年成功量产NHBM4 49 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,509 SK海力士的市场份额或将逐步收窄 50 00:03:16,750 --> 00:03:20,569 高端AI供应链压力逐渐浮现 51 00:03:20,569 --> 00:03:22,349 此次报道折射出 52 00:03:22,349 --> 00:03:27,990 投资者对高端AI基础设施建设节奏的深层担忧 53 00:03:27,990 --> 00:03:33,449 搭载HPM4的英伟达VRRUBIN机架 54 00:03:33,449 --> 00:03:36,009 因存储价格大幅攀升 55 00:03:36,009 --> 00:03:37,789 推高整体成本 56 00:03:37,789 --> 00:03:42,830 令超大规模数据中心运营商的利润空间承压 57 00:03:42,830 --> 00:03:47,294 引发市场对终端需求走软的疑虑 58 00:03:50,199 --> 00:03:51,919 科技股剧烈回调 59 00:03:51,919 --> 00:03:56,599 AI牛市下半场亟待解答的关键疑云 60 00:03:58,219 --> 00:04:01,800 5月14日或成关键战术转折点 61 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,300 标普500指数在5月14日 62 00:04:04,300 --> 00:04:08,240 首次站上7500点后陷入震荡 63 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:12,759 当日AI新股上市引发极致狂热 64 00:04:12,759 --> 00:04:14,810 随后市场出现分化 65 00:04:14,810 --> 00:04:16,209 科技巨头回调 66 00:04:16,209 --> 00:04:18,439 而硬件厂商受捧 67 00:04:18,439 --> 00:04:21,480 这种行情扩散虽显活跃 68 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,850 但也暗示核心驱动板块可能已透支估值 69 00:04:25,850 --> 00:04:28,870 上涨动能正逐渐衰竭 70 00:04:28,870 --> 00:04:32,829 新任美联储主席引发政策猜想 71 00:04:36,069 --> 00:04:38,490 将减少前瞻指引 72 00:04:38,490 --> 00:04:40,589 并启动内部改革 73 00:04:40,589 --> 00:04:43,449 希望让政策保留不确定性 74 00:04:43,449 --> 00:04:47,158 这种低透明度环境被华尔街视为 75 00:04:47,158 --> 00:04:49,480 重回格林斯潘时代 76 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:54,560 但也引发了市场对当年科技泡沫破裂及 77 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,240 深度熊市重演的担忧 78 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,399 政策转向风险值得高度警惕 79 00:05:02,899 --> 00:05:06,420 原油多头被忽视的关键变量 80 00:05:06,420 --> 00:05:08,360 受伊朗冲突影响 81 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,620 国际油价从战时高点 82 00:05:10,620 --> 00:05:13,668 大幅回落至75美元区间 83 00:05:13,668 --> 00:05:15,389 市场开始反思 84 00:05:15,389 --> 00:05:18,369 是否低估了全球库存规模 85 00:05:18,369 --> 00:05:21,600 及中国需求下调的影响 86 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,839 此外可再生能源的加速扩张 87 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,839 可能让原油作为地缘博弈筹码的影响力衰退 88 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,560 成为扭转油价的关键因素 89 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,149 外方乐观情绪达到历史峰值 90 00:05:37,149 --> 00:05:40,990 当前市场投资者持仓呈现复杂特征 91 00:05:40,990 --> 00:05:44,129 对冲基金多头压注浓厚 92 00:05:44,129 --> 00:05:48,110 但整体情绪调研处于中性水平 93 00:05:48,110 --> 00:05:49,740 值得注意的是 94 00:05:49,740 --> 00:05:54,839 卖方券商的乐观情绪已达金融危机后峰值 95 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:59,370 个股买入评级占比创2009年以来新高 96 00:05:59,370 --> 00:06:04,529 这种极度乐观背后隐藏着潜在风险 97 00:06:06,180 --> 00:06:08,788 市场热议盈利泡沫隐患 98 00:06:08,788 --> 00:06:12,428 华尔街机构对基本面几乎保持零质疑 99 00:06:12,428 --> 00:06:16,000 但市场开始担忧盈利泡沫风险 100 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:22,110 AI设备大额采购直接转化为上游厂商当期利润 101 00:06:22,110 --> 00:06:26,040 而采购方成本却需多年折旧分摊 102 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:30,079 这种会计核算模式下的盈利高增 103 00:06:30,079 --> 00:06:32,339 是否具备可持续性 104 00:06:32,339 --> 00:06:35,129 引发了巨大的市场分歧 105 00:06:35,410 --> 00:06:38,730 AI牛市亟待解答的核心问题 106 00:06:38,730 --> 00:06:43,519 由AI热潮驱动的牛市迎来第四个夏季 107 00:06:43,519 --> 00:06:47,360 赛力基建集中建设带动股指走高 108 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:52,709 然而宏观环境转变与市场内部异动频发 109 00:06:52,709 --> 00:06:55,329 尤其是科技股的剧烈回调 110 00:06:55,329 --> 00:06:58,949 下半年市场能否维持稳健节奏 111 00:06:58,949 --> 00:07:01,420 上述战术拐点 112 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,160 从暴涨到剧烈震荡 113 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:17,800 SPACEX股价寻找新平衡点 114 00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:22,660 股价剧烈波动与多空博弈 115 00:07:22,660 --> 00:07:26,459 SPACEX上市后股价曾飙升67% 116 00:07:26,459 --> 00:07:28,668 又回落35% 117 00:07:28,668 --> 00:07:32,889 周二一度跌破首日开盘价后尾盘反弹 118 00:07:32,889 --> 00:07:34,269 分析师认为 119 00:07:34,269 --> 00:07:39,649 当前剧烈波动更多是买卖双方力量平衡的体现 120 00:07:39,649 --> 00:07:43,410 并不代表投资者对其前景和估值的看法 121 00:07:43,410 --> 00:07:46,170 发生了根本性转变 122 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,439 指数纳入与投行研报催化 123 00:07:50,439 --> 00:07:51,579 未来几周 124 00:07:51,579 --> 00:07:54,538 SPACEX将迎来多重催化剂 125 00:07:54,538 --> 00:07:58,658 包括被纳入罗素及纳斯达克100指数 126 00:07:58,658 --> 00:08:02,589 预计带来数10亿美元被动资金流入 127 00:08:03,029 --> 00:08:07,029 同时7月初投行研究静默期结束 128 00:08:07,029 --> 00:08:08,750 相关研报的发布 129 00:08:08,750 --> 00:08:12,790 可能会刺激更多主动性买盘入场 130 00:08:13,810 --> 00:08:16,569 期权市场转向防御性压注 131 00:08:16,569 --> 00:08:20,490 初期狂热的看涨情绪已趋于平衡 132 00:08:20,490 --> 00:08:23,339 部分交易员开始压住股价下跌 133 00:08:23,339 --> 00:08:24,540 数据显示 134 00:08:24,540 --> 00:08:27,259 7月至9月到期的合约中 135 00:08:27,259 --> 00:08:31,680 看跌期权数量近两倍于看涨期权前 136 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:32,320 市场预计 137 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,899 9月中旬前跌破130美元的概率 138 00:08:35,899 --> 00:08:38,220 约为40% 139 00:08:38,620 --> 00:08:42,940 关键里程碑价格面临考验 140 00:08:42,940 --> 00:08:46,740 自动卖单通常集中在特定价格附近 141 00:08:46,740 --> 00:08:49,419 150美元的首日开盘价 142 00:08:49,419 --> 00:08:54,259 和135美元的发行价被视为潜在压力点 143 00:08:54,259 --> 00:08:55,580 分析指出 144 00:08:55,580 --> 00:08:58,960 若这些关键支撑位得以守住 145 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,000 将被视为积极考验 146 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,240 一旦失守 147 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:07,470 则可能标志着强势板块情绪的转变 148 00:09:08,389 --> 00:09:11,850 限售股分阶段解禁引发担忧 149 00:09:11,850 --> 00:09:14,110 与常规IPO不同 150 00:09:14,110 --> 00:09:17,889 SPACEX计划分阶段解禁受限股 151 00:09:17,889 --> 00:09:23,940 且部分解禁条件取决于公司业绩和股价目标 152 00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:25,980 只要满足特定条件 153 00:09:25,980 --> 00:09:30,850 部分股东在首份季度财报公布后不久 154 00:09:30,850 --> 00:09:33,690 即可开始售股 155 00:09:33,690 --> 00:09:37,710 这引发了市场对潜在抛售压力的担忧 156 00:09:37,710 --> 00:09:41,279 科技板块回调加剧不确定性 157 00:09:43,399 --> 00:09:47,070 伴随着数周来科技股最大幅度的回调 158 00:09:47,070 --> 00:09:50,470 纳斯达克指数市值蒸发数千亿美元 159 00:09:50,470 --> 00:09:53,669 在宏观环境疲软及人工智能 160 00:09:53,669 --> 00:09:57,599 热门股票定价因素众多的背景下 161 00:09:57,599 --> 00:10:00,578 后续事件对股价的具体影响 162 00:10:00,578 --> 00:10:04,479 目前尚无法准确预测 163 00:10:05,610 --> 00:10:08,470 好我们看一下今天市场的表现 164 00:10:08,470 --> 00:10:11,389 今天纳指下跌超过3% 165 00:10:11,389 --> 00:10:13,850 我们看到一根强势的阴线哈 166 00:10:13,850 --> 00:10:17,559 那么后续呢我们要继续关注空头的动向 167 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:18,120 呃 168 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,169 我们看一下5分钟时候的感觉哈 169 00:10:21,690 --> 00:10:23,149 还好啊还好 170 00:10:23,149 --> 00:10:25,289 这里是一个AABC这种感觉对吧 171 00:10:25,289 --> 00:10:26,289 当然可以再吊起来 172 00:10:26,289 --> 00:10:30,179 形成更大的ABC或者更宽幅的震荡是吧 173 00:10:30,179 --> 00:10:32,940 唉所以明天主要关注这片能不能支楞住 174 00:10:32,940 --> 00:10:34,100 如果能支楞住的话 175 00:10:34,100 --> 00:10:35,240 也没什么问题啊 176 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,339 支楞不住就要看下边这个支撑位了 177 00:10:38,778 --> 00:10:40,418 现在进入到熊市了吗 178 00:10:40,418 --> 00:10:41,938 目前还没有哦 179 00:10:41,938 --> 00:10:42,958 目前还没有 180 00:10:42,958 --> 00:10:45,559 可不可以给一些更深的回调 181 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,039 现在看不到那么晚 182 00:10:47,039 --> 00:10:50,539 那那么远的啊啊还要再观察一下这片啊 183 00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:53,980 我们画的这个这个平缓的上涨趋势线 184 00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:55,480 能不能有效哈 185 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,820 所以今天是周二啊 186 00:10:57,820 --> 00:10:59,679 明天看这篇的情况 187 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,259 或者这周吧看一看这篇的情况 188 00:11:02,259 --> 00:11:04,960 那这周最悲观的情形是啥呢 189 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:05,620 是啥 190 00:11:05,620 --> 00:11:07,179 是跌到下方支撑区啊 191 00:11:07,179 --> 00:11:08,269 跌下来 192 00:11:08,269 --> 00:11:12,029 今天周二还有后边还有三个交易日哈下来 193 00:11:12,029 --> 00:11:14,360 然后就会有剧烈的反弹啊 194 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,120 因为毕竟这个位置也是一个支撑位对吧 195 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,259 所以这周啊最悲观的就是说掉下来 196 00:11:20,259 --> 00:11:23,230 然后微微的弹起来或者是剧烈的反弹 197 00:11:23,230 --> 00:11:26,149 那乐观的呢乐观明天就会往下刺一下 198 00:11:26,149 --> 00:11:27,070 再弹起来 199 00:11:27,070 --> 00:11:31,409 然后哦接下来两到三根横线往上拉升哈 200 00:11:31,409 --> 00:11:34,539 但那是极为乐观的情况嗯 201 00:11:35,740 --> 00:11:37,779 好这是科技股 202 00:11:37,779 --> 00:11:40,049 我们看下小盘股嗯 203 00:11:40,049 --> 00:11:42,190 小盘股的空头K线还是可以的啊 204 00:11:42,190 --> 00:11:44,009 不是那么强势对吧 205 00:11:44,009 --> 00:11:47,850 下影线还是较长的好 206 00:11:47,850 --> 00:11:48,750 我们看下道指 207 00:11:48,750 --> 00:11:50,309 道指空头也不强 208 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,879 那么整体而言还是科技股回调的需求比较大 209 00:11:55,879 --> 00:11:58,659 那么标普也是和纳指一样哈 210 00:11:58,659 --> 00:12:00,578 我们就不重复看了 211 00:12:00,578 --> 00:12:01,658 我们看一下美元 212 00:12:03,379 --> 00:12:06,600 我们上周分析了一下美元哈 213 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:07,399 我认为啊 214 00:12:07,399 --> 00:12:11,759 接下来有可能从100~150之间进行震荡啊 215 00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:14,120 从100反弹到105哈 216 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,409 这片震一震啊 217 00:12:16,409 --> 00:12:17,990 这是接下来几个月可能的 218 00:12:17,990 --> 00:12:21,629 或者甚至一年的时间可能的运动状态 219 00:12:22,340 --> 00:12:23,779 我们看一下黄金 220 00:12:23,779 --> 00:12:25,740 黄金今天好 221 00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:27,500 欧洲早期收单就是这样啊 222 00:12:27,500 --> 00:12:29,860 那今天也没有谈起来 223 00:12:30,590 --> 00:12:34,710 表面全天空投还是较为强势的对吧 224 00:12:34,710 --> 00:12:35,669 那这样的话 225 00:12:35,669 --> 00:12:38,610 明天接下来一到两根黑线比较关键哈 226 00:12:38,610 --> 00:12:41,000 看看这个支撑位能不能支楞住吧 227 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,340 那整体的态势呢是一个偏空的一个宽通道哈 228 00:12:45,340 --> 00:12:47,720 市场呢也可以继续往下调啊 229 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:49,600 也就形成质量下行的走势 230 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,360 那么多头真正安全的点位 231 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:56,269 在这根下跌趋势线的右侧才有可能会安全嗯 232 00:12:56,414 --> 00:13:00,129 我们看一下它的5分钟tour嗯 233 00:13:00,129 --> 00:13:02,828 目前反弹的力度不是太强啊 234 00:13:02,828 --> 00:13:05,610 看看明天能不能支楞住吧 235 00:13:05,610 --> 00:13:07,049 嗯这是5分钟图 236 00:13:07,049 --> 00:13:08,769 画一个下跌曲线啊 237 00:13:08,769 --> 00:13:12,340 想法比较重要的支撑位在这儿嗯 238 00:13:18,759 --> 00:13:20,720 啊好这是谁呢 239 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,669 这是黄金 240 00:13:22,669 --> 00:13:24,230 原油的话 241 00:13:24,230 --> 00:13:25,470 原油不用看了啊 242 00:13:25,470 --> 00:13:26,389 大家自己看 243 00:13:26,389 --> 00:13:29,110 我看下市场分布的情况哈 244 00:13:31,289 --> 00:13:33,328 下跌超过6% 245 00:13:33,688 --> 00:13:35,568 软件是微涨一点点 246 00:13:35,568 --> 00:13:36,969 消费电子是微跌 247 00:13:38,168 --> 00:13:40,129 互联网是微跌 248 00:13:41,370 --> 00:13:45,669 国额这个航空航天与国防是微涨微微的哈 249 00:13:45,669 --> 00:13:47,629 所以今天涨幅都不是太大 250 00:13:47,629 --> 00:13:49,659 下跌的幅度比较大 251 00:13:49,659 --> 00:13:54,500 嗯这片儿呢这里有个应用软件是微涨 252 00:13:55,230 --> 00:13:56,509 还有谁来着 253 00:13:56,509 --> 00:13:57,129 好 254 00:13:57,129 --> 00:13:58,649 基本上就是这样哈 255 00:13:58,649 --> 00:14:01,350 即便是上涨的可能涨幅也都不大啊 256 00:14:01,350 --> 00:14:06,208 这些绿色的我们看一下领涨板块嗯 257 00:14:06,208 --> 00:14:09,048 领涨板块都不是我们喜欢的哈 258 00:14:09,048 --> 00:14:12,184 好我们回到我们的列表 259 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,240 那这样的话今天也有领涨的龙头股吧 260 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,129 有好我们先看一下space x 261 00:14:21,129 --> 00:14:24,950 SPSPSPSPACEX叫什么space x啊 262 00:14:24,950 --> 00:14:29,740 space x这个今天是微涨0.98% 263 00:14:29,740 --> 00:14:32,179 那么今天冲高有所回落哈 264 00:14:32,179 --> 00:14:34,879 哎正如刚才这个分析师分析的哈 265 00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:38,539 说这个100这一代包括下边135啊 266 00:14:38,539 --> 00:14:40,049 这个150这一代哈 267 00:14:40,049 --> 00:14:41,649 包括下边一百三十五一带 268 00:14:41,649 --> 00:14:43,950 是非常重要的支撑区域哈 269 00:14:48,879 --> 00:14:51,120 但是今天的多头不是太强哈 270 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:52,679 上影线非常的长 271 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:55,179 我们看一下5分钟的细节 272 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,080 哎呀尾盘又给弄了一下啊 273 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,659 那么这样的话好震荡下行啊 274 00:15:00,659 --> 00:15:01,679 去测试了150 275 00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:05,179 这一带今天是收涨到156哈 276 00:15:06,179 --> 00:15:07,620 看明天能不能拉上去吧 277 00:15:07,620 --> 00:15:08,899 也有可能拉上去啊 278 00:15:08,899 --> 00:15:11,149 因为这里是一个回调是吧 279 00:15:11,149 --> 00:15:12,789 嗯也有可能也有可能 280 00:15:12,789 --> 00:15:14,070 那我们应该怎么画呢 281 00:15:14,070 --> 00:15:16,789 我们就划到150作为支撑位吧 282 00:15:16,789 --> 00:15:18,909 诶150在这儿 283 00:15:18,909 --> 00:15:21,889 我们假设哈150个重要的支撑位 284 00:15:21,889 --> 00:15:23,429 那么在技术面上呢 285 00:15:23,429 --> 00:15:27,519 明天需要看这根下跌线能不能被拖上去哈 286 00:15:27,519 --> 00:15:29,480 目前拖拉板没有啊 287 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,960 我们看今年虽然反弹起来哈 288 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:33,759 去测试到趋势线附近哈 289 00:15:33,759 --> 00:15:35,950 但没能有效突破上去哈 290 00:15:35,950 --> 00:15:39,269 实际上更保守的趋势线画法是这样画的 291 00:15:39,269 --> 00:15:41,289 要把这些触点都出一出啊 292 00:15:41,289 --> 00:15:42,730 戳到这是吧 293 00:15:42,730 --> 00:15:45,289 所以这片儿呢跟黄金有点类似了 294 00:15:45,289 --> 00:15:48,190 看明天回落止跌的情况 295 00:15:48,350 --> 00:15:49,389 即便回落止跌 296 00:15:49,389 --> 00:15:51,169 还需要强劲拉升才行啊 297 00:15:51,169 --> 00:15:52,309 拉上去再回落 298 00:15:52,309 --> 00:15:54,350 在止跌才行 299 00:15:55,419 --> 00:15:58,379 嗯这个马斯克的这两项资产 300 00:15:59,539 --> 00:16:02,559 这个估值层面都不是太好啊 301 00:16:02,559 --> 00:16:05,980 我感觉是这样好 302 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:07,279 这是这个屯儿 303 00:16:07,279 --> 00:16:08,559 这即便如此哈 304 00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:10,480 今天还微涨一点点诶 305 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,120 今天的这个戴尔反倒涨了一点哈 306 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,899 我们看一下嗯不行 307 00:16:14,899 --> 00:16:16,450 为啥呢 308 00:16:16,450 --> 00:16:18,009 也不是说完全不行 309 00:16:18,009 --> 00:16:19,350 有可能走震荡啊 310 00:16:19,350 --> 00:16:21,250 就是说今天跳空低开之后 311 00:16:21,250 --> 00:16:22,450 他竟然拉了起来 312 00:16:22,450 --> 00:16:25,690 这样的话市场对他来说有可能走震荡行情 313 00:16:25,690 --> 00:16:27,009 我们看一下5分钟图 314 00:16:28,730 --> 00:16:30,159 嗯对吧 315 00:16:30,159 --> 00:16:32,860 你看这首次比较明显的回调 316 00:16:32,860 --> 00:16:36,889 然后拉上去形成二次探顶掉下来诶 317 00:16:36,889 --> 00:16:39,070 今天虽然说天红地开啊 318 00:16:39,070 --> 00:16:41,339 这个卷天又拉了起来哈 319 00:16:41,339 --> 00:16:44,399 不过呢目前不是强牛市哈 320 00:16:44,399 --> 00:16:46,559 这片儿不是强多头啊 321 00:16:46,559 --> 00:16:49,139 我们要继续观察一下空投的动向啊 322 00:16:49,139 --> 00:16:50,299 所以也可以再掉下来吗 323 00:16:50,299 --> 00:16:52,299 也可以呀也啊 324 00:16:52,299 --> 00:16:55,879 所以这篇儿要再观察一到两个交易日再看一下 325 00:16:55,879 --> 00:16:58,000 好以日线为标准哈 326 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,419 嗯啊万一他就是个反弹而已 327 00:17:01,419 --> 00:17:03,600 这片就是个横盘震荡呢对吧 328 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,000 他也可以继续掉下去 329 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:06,140 也可以涨啊 330 00:17:06,140 --> 00:17:08,609 这他是一个中性的位置 331 00:17:09,888 --> 00:17:11,769 好这是这两个哈 332 00:17:11,769 --> 00:17:14,729 我们反过来看吧 333 00:17:14,729 --> 00:17:17,048 我们先看下英伟达 334 00:17:17,479 --> 00:17:19,838 哎呀呀呀呀对吧 335 00:17:19,838 --> 00:17:21,479 跳空低开往下砸 336 00:17:21,479 --> 00:17:22,759 收到了低点哈 337 00:17:22,759 --> 00:17:25,059 今天是一根强势的阴线 338 00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:26,339 那么这样的话 339 00:17:26,339 --> 00:17:29,599 同学们就要关注这根长趋势线的有效性了是吧 340 00:17:29,599 --> 00:17:31,940 所以我们大家要提高警惕哈 341 00:17:31,940 --> 00:17:34,429 看看接下来几个交易日会怎么样 342 00:17:34,429 --> 00:17:37,148 这片儿这里必须得像这儿似的哈 343 00:17:37,148 --> 00:17:39,009 有强劲的大阳线才行 344 00:17:39,009 --> 00:17:40,130 你看这片 345 00:17:40,130 --> 00:17:41,369 接下来一到两个教室 346 00:17:41,369 --> 00:17:43,549 必须得大阳线拉起来哈才行 347 00:17:43,549 --> 00:17:45,890 否则这就是一个局部的头肩顶 348 00:17:45,890 --> 00:17:49,558 只不过这个头肩呢是有两个头啊 349 00:17:49,558 --> 00:17:50,939 右侧肩膀正在弄 350 00:17:50,939 --> 00:17:53,099 如果往下掉呢 351 00:17:53,460 --> 00:17:54,720 调也可以哈 352 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,079 我们之前说了 353 00:17:56,079 --> 00:17:57,670 说了一个玩法 354 00:17:57,670 --> 00:17:58,569 就是什么呢 355 00:17:58,569 --> 00:18:00,329 他走宽幅震荡是吧 356 00:18:00,329 --> 00:18:03,240 每次找完一节大回车啊 357 00:18:03,599 --> 00:18:04,799 但是现在还看不到 358 00:18:04,799 --> 00:18:08,490 还还还需要空头继续努力往下砸盘才行 359 00:18:08,650 --> 00:18:10,009 这是英伟达 360 00:18:10,009 --> 00:18:11,329 我们看一下5分钟图啊 361 00:18:11,329 --> 00:18:14,589 什么感觉哎英伟达今天天空低开 362 00:18:14,589 --> 00:18:17,019 有点偏空的感觉啊 363 00:18:17,019 --> 00:18:19,059 不过后头也没有那么的强啊 364 00:18:19,059 --> 00:18:21,119 主要是当前是一个水平支撑位哈 365 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,480 嗯好我们再看日线 366 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:24,599 再感受一下 367 00:18:24,599 --> 00:18:27,079 在这位置是个支撑区域哈 368 00:18:27,079 --> 00:18:30,809 这片哎再观察一下吧 369 00:18:31,089 --> 00:18:33,069 看下博通哎 370 00:18:33,069 --> 00:18:35,059 博通也是掉头向下哈 371 00:18:35,059 --> 00:18:37,619 啊今天啊是天空低开哈 372 00:18:37,619 --> 00:18:40,380 然后震了一下又打了回来 373 00:18:40,380 --> 00:18:41,759 说这片一定会跌吧 374 00:18:41,759 --> 00:18:43,579 这个没人能保证哈 375 00:18:43,579 --> 00:18:46,299 所以这种形态我们在周末讨论了一下 376 00:18:46,299 --> 00:18:48,759 说苹果那个图也是可以弹上去 377 00:18:48,759 --> 00:18:49,839 以苹果为例 378 00:18:49,839 --> 00:18:51,980 但博通也是类似的走势啊 379 00:18:51,980 --> 00:18:55,660 我们说嗯上拉回车上拉啪掉下来 380 00:18:55,660 --> 00:18:56,460 对不对 381 00:18:56,460 --> 00:18:58,220 但如果明天还是大阴线 382 00:18:58,220 --> 00:18:59,429 就要提防了 383 00:18:59,429 --> 00:19:01,048 这个支撑位就失效了 384 00:19:01,048 --> 00:19:03,849 就要找下一个支撑位了 385 00:19:04,049 --> 00:19:05,970 这是博通啊 386 00:19:08,009 --> 00:19:09,769 继续看啊 387 00:19:10,210 --> 00:19:12,289 我们看一下AMD 388 00:19:12,890 --> 00:19:14,269 AMD今天也不是 389 00:19:14,269 --> 00:19:15,690 今天也是收低哈 390 00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:17,289 收盘价比昨天要低 391 00:19:17,289 --> 00:19:19,569 但是他摸到了这根趋势线 392 00:19:19,809 --> 00:19:21,190 所以有所反弹 393 00:19:21,190 --> 00:19:22,890 所以明天很关键哈 394 00:19:22,890 --> 00:19:24,049 如果还是大阴线的话 395 00:19:24,049 --> 00:19:25,670 就砸下来了是吧 396 00:19:25,670 --> 00:19:28,440 这就是一个楔形的反转形态 397 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,279 这明天比较关键哈 398 00:19:30,279 --> 00:19:32,400 今天不是那么关键 399 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,039 因为多头又支棱了一下是吧 400 00:19:35,039 --> 00:19:36,440 明天如果是阴线的话 401 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:37,990 就麻烦了啊 402 00:19:38,730 --> 00:19:40,089 好我们看下特斯拉 403 00:19:40,089 --> 00:19:40,490 好 404 00:19:40,490 --> 00:19:42,609 特斯拉不是太理想 405 00:19:42,609 --> 00:19:44,869 昨天前这个前两个交易日还行 406 00:19:44,869 --> 00:19:46,710 但今天是属于天空低开 407 00:19:46,710 --> 00:19:49,559 因为昨天收盘价在这天红低开往下砸 408 00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:51,279 我继续攒多头立场 409 00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:54,048 他然后去找新的下跌啊 410 00:19:54,048 --> 00:19:56,608 新找去找下一个这个支撑位啊 411 00:19:56,608 --> 00:19:59,170 这对不对嗯 412 00:20:00,250 --> 00:20:05,700 好我看下英特尔也是一样哈啊冲高哎 413 00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:08,400 如果这真的事后证明是一个中等回调的 414 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,000 一个顶的话 415 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:09,819 也也挺好 416 00:20:09,819 --> 00:20:12,759 因为毕竟是基本上就是最高位了是吧 417 00:20:12,759 --> 00:20:15,319 哎所以接下来一到两个节日比较关键啊 418 00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:17,430 看一看空头愿不愿意砸回来 419 00:20:17,430 --> 00:20:19,490 我们不妨画一个阻力区 420 00:20:19,490 --> 00:20:20,829 如果继续砸的话 421 00:20:20,829 --> 00:20:22,910 就要走震荡了 422 00:20:23,799 --> 00:20:25,640 台积电也一样哈 423 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,700 如果继续跌的话 424 00:20:27,700 --> 00:20:30,950 至少要有一个中等回调了 425 00:20:31,549 --> 00:20:33,970 好还有谁来着 426 00:20:33,970 --> 00:20:35,230 镁光 427 00:20:36,450 --> 00:20:37,309 都一样哈 428 00:20:37,309 --> 00:20:38,069 这个半导体 429 00:20:38,069 --> 00:20:40,210 那我们把最高位画个阻力去吧 430 00:20:40,210 --> 00:20:42,509 再跌的话就有可能回调了 431 00:20:42,509 --> 00:20:45,244 你看我们这个曲线正好在这贴着它 432 00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:48,220 好在没有砸破之前 433 00:20:48,220 --> 00:20:50,440 我们肯定假设趋势更重要是吧 434 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:51,859 不能老是踩顶 435 00:20:51,859 --> 00:20:53,819 那那如果明天还要掉下来 436 00:20:53,819 --> 00:20:55,079 那就麻烦了 437 00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:58,880 就是这样是一波回撤的顶部了 438 00:20:59,039 --> 00:21:01,200 我看IM也是类似哈 439 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,039 其实有点往下的意思了 440 00:21:03,039 --> 00:21:05,279 大家要提高警惕哈 441 00:21:05,759 --> 00:21:07,599 嗯对提高警惕 442 00:21:08,599 --> 00:21:11,180 我们再看一下那个半导体啊 443 00:21:11,180 --> 00:21:12,859 这个然后我们说啊 444 00:21:12,859 --> 00:21:13,819 如果他是楔形的话 445 00:21:13,819 --> 00:21:15,779 它会掉下来再砸 446 00:21:15,779 --> 00:21:17,259 如果明天再砸的话 447 00:21:17,259 --> 00:21:17,980 都是类似啊 448 00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:19,299 都是楔形 449 00:21:20,619 --> 00:21:22,539 嗯PAPENTATER 450 00:21:22,539 --> 00:21:24,859 这个其实他已经走出悲观的情形了 451 00:21:24,859 --> 00:21:26,480 PLTR看到没 452 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,480 我们说支撑区的多头呢 453 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,720 放弃了两根阴线砸下来了 454 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,019 这两根是比较强势啊 455 00:21:33,019 --> 00:21:34,599 这是一个偏空的视角哈 456 00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,859 大家一定要注意多头的一个止损位在哪啊 457 00:21:37,859 --> 00:21:39,940 已经已经打掉止损了哈 458 00:21:39,940 --> 00:21:41,809 那么后续呢不要踩底 459 00:21:41,809 --> 00:21:43,809 这下行空间很大的啊 460 00:21:43,809 --> 00:21:46,400 按照我们的经验啊 461 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,180 这个跌幅可以很深哈 462 00:21:48,180 --> 00:21:50,259 但是现在看不到底啊 463 00:21:50,259 --> 00:21:52,000 啊我们也不去猜底哈 464 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,349 他愿意跌到哪就跌到哪是吧 465 00:21:55,910 --> 00:21:58,150 好我们先分析这么几只哈 466 00:21:58,150 --> 00:21:59,650 欢迎大家成为会员哈 467 00:21:59,650 --> 00:22:01,109 观看我们的内容 468 00:22:01,109 --> 00:22:04,250 最新牛股分析和这个最热美股详细说 469 00:22:04,250 --> 00:22:06,009 猎宝石会员可以看到更多哈 470 00:22:07,130 --> 00:22:08,789 好我们下一个时段再见 471 00:22:08,789 --> 00:22:09,480 拜拜
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