【NaNa说美股】20260326玩个鸡毛，不玩了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月16号

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周四

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市场的表现用惨烈形容都显得太温柔了

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三大股指集体重挫

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纳指跌超2%

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消息面上有关伊朗停火谈判的言论呢互相冲突

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川普的态度左右横跳

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中东王爷们由于手头紧

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卖完黄金卖美债

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卖完美债

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砸美股

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其他六个全都跌成狗

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今早一醒来

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中东那边又是炮火连天

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伊朗首都德黑兰遭到空袭

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市内多个地区传出爆炸声

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紧接着

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以色列国防军就高调宣布

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已经把伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军司令以及多名海军高层一波送走

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当时这帮人还正在开会呢

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伊朗的报复呢也来得极快

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反手就给以色列送去了一波导弹雨

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以色列特拉维夫中部地区耶路撒冷都拉响了防空警报

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受此消息影响

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原有起火再次原地起飞

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油一涨

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美股这边就扑街了哈

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这个机构们甚至等不到周五避险

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周四就体检

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撒丫子跑路了

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根据EXCE斯报道

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美五角大楼呢已经在为中东大决战做准准备了

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包括开展大规模轰炸行动

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甚至考虑地面部队突袭核设施

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根据消息人士称

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虽然川普还没有拍板

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但如果谈判没进展

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川普今年的表现呢也堪称是连环补刀

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针对华尔街日报报道

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他急于结束战争的传闻

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他在TUSOURCE3啊疯狂反击

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称自己一点都不急哈

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反而而是伊朗在祈求达成协议

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顺便呢还发帖警告

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伊朗如果再不认真对待15点计划

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就等着面对严重的后果

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这种激进的言论彻底粉碎了市场关于本周末就能停火的幻想

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美股三大股指大幅低开后一度集体拉升

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随后又大幅回落

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弹出那一波拉斯是因为传闻伊朗已经正式回应了

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停火协议目前正等待美国的答复

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那群量化机器人捕捉到回应答复

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这种关键词立马就无脑充分

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盘初跌幅迅速收窄

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道指甚至还一度转涨

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可是当机器人发现后面根本没有人跟买的时候呢

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指数又光速掉头

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川普这个时候补了最狠的一刀哈

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当记者问他怎么看美股暴跌的时候

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他淡定的回答

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我原以为会跌的更厉害

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这句话成了压垮多头情绪的最后一根稻草

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因为他明摆着告诉大家

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砸的现在还不够狠

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还没有跌到他的底线呢

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华尔街也立即就领悟了川建国同志的讲话精神

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深入学习融会贯通

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不用白宫精神分析美股形势

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用白宫的意图指导这个砸盘实践

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于是呢在川普讲完这句话后

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指数的跌幅就开始持续扩大

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在毫无抵抗中一路杀到日内最低点收盘

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就在大家以为今天已经盖棺定论的时候

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川普在盘后又玩了一手极限拉扯

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他宣称应伊朗政府请求

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决定把打击发电厂的计划推迟十天到4月6号

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并且信誓旦旦的说

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双方谈判进展非常顺利

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所有那些说谈判出问题不顺利的都是fake news

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这明明是他自己说伊朗不认真对待吗

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这时候又把这个黑锅甩到别人的头上

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这个消息一出

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油价像蹦极一样直线跳

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紧接着又光速拉回

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可能是大家现在都认为

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川普给出这十天根本就不是在等协议

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而是在给美军集结

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航母和地面部队争取最后的窗口期

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这种操纵市场的手段啊

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简直到了登峰造极的地步

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现在华尔街已经摸清了规律

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只要WTI有价冲向100美元或者10年期美债

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收益率逼近4.5%的警戒线

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白宫呢就会切换到模式出来

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给市场降温

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等市场风险偏好稍微回升

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情绪好转诶

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强硬言辞又会卷土重来

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这种反复的揉搓

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直到把市场折磨到麻木为止哈

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关于那封所谓的大礼呢

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川普也揭秘了

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原来是伊朗放行了十艘邮轮过海峡

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川普自嗨说

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这是伊朗被打烂了在求饶

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但明眼人都看得出来

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这哪是求饶啊

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这分明是伊朗在显摆嘛

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海峡的阀门在我手里

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我想开就开

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想关就关啊

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这种施舍式的犯罪行反而证明了海峡的控制权依然在伊朗手里

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航道随时可能再次关闭

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能源危机根本就没有解除

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深圳七门收益率呢今天日内冲到4.4%

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虽然当下新闻头条主导市场走势

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数据成了次要因素

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但是金融条件的持续收紧了

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让风险资产无处躲藏

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美国上周初请失业金人数微幅增加

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与经济学家的预期完全一致

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显示劳动力市场仍保持稳定

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这位美联储在密切关注中东冲突引发的通胀风险之际

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维持利率不变提供了空间

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加息是不太可能加息的啦

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但是嗯维持利率更长时间的基本是肯定的

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在今天的科技股抛售潮中嗯

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半导体与AI板块是重灾区

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哈光通信概念股

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半导体设备AAMD这些昨天的小甜甜今天全都变成了牛夫人

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资金也在持续流出

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存储概念股美观科技

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股价已经连续第六个交易日下跌

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连贵金属市场也遭到了猛烈的抛售

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黄金反弹了两天后

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失守4500美元盎司关口

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白银跌了7.6%

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其他的有色金属也都是跌的稀里哗啦的

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最尴尬的是

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摩根大通昨天刚喊出结束看跌美股

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考虑做多

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黄金今天就被市场两记耳光抽得找不着北

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虽然小摩也明确表示

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暂时不会逢低买入美股

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而是倾向于在持有能源与大盘科技股多头的同时

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配合指数与板块层面的对冲工具

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以剥离方向性风险

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就是维持中性立场哈

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这是嗯可能为了防备这个双向风险

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既要防御嗯继续下行的这个风险

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也要防御这个暴力反弹逼空行情嗯

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技术面上的标普500指数再次跌破了5日均线

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这一根光脚阴线意味着下杀惯性还没有释放完毕

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即便盘后有川普的推文续命

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明天周五仍可能会有一个确认破位的动作

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如果高开的话

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大概率也是诱多嗯

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若是多头动能在开盘半小时内耗尽

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指数会掉头去试探6450支撑

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甚至可能直奔6400

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现在反正就是一个字

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等其他的呢什么都不要做

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现在的反弹权势又多

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现代的消息全靠演技

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既然川普把deadline推到了4月6号

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那么接下来的十天啊

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这个市场会进入更疯狂

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更神经质的呃

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推特震荡期

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咱们还是那句话

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不见海峡通航就不撒鹰

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继续拿着现金看他在白宫表演手搓K线

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其他个股方面

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梅塔今年股价直接瀑布了

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公司一周之内连续遭遇了两次重量级败诉

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先是周二在新墨西哥的一起案件中

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陪审团认定meta在明知FACEBOOK和INSTAGRAM已经成了性穷夺者资深的平台呃

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就是那些不太好的广告哈

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却依然在平台安全性上误导当地青少年

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最终被判支付3.75亿美元的民事赔偿

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今天美国陪审团在一项具有里程碑意义的裁决中认定

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梅塔和谷歌都要向一名20岁的女性赔偿损失

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因为她认为自己对社交媒体的成瘾引发了严重的心理健康危机

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投资者担心的并不是这两笔罚款本身

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而是他打开了一个极其危险的口子

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如果社交媒体成瘾开始被法院认定为使平台的责任哈

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那后面几间起类似的诉讼都可能变成死这个定时炸弹

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这是否会演变成社交媒体平台的长期法律漏洞呢

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包括那些游戏公司呀

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DDOCK呀

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全都危险哈

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所以meta今天这一根大阴线

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不只是受到大盘的拖累

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而是市场开始重新给他的监管风险和法律风险定价

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但也有这个小渣最近疯狂撒钱

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各种扩建AI数据中心

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就把摊子铺开的越来越大

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可能也担心这一点

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股价已经跌破了半年线

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现在正一步步往下试探年线支撑

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当初高位的时候嫌贵不敢追

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现在跌下来了又不敢买

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这是市场最经典的人形循环啦

206
00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:22,169
比起来谷歌还是几个巨头中跌的相对较少的

207
00:09:22,169 --> 00:09:25,110
从高点下来也就回撤了20%

208
00:09:25,110 --> 00:09:27,250
微软就没有这么体面了哈

209
00:09:27,250 --> 00:09:30,779
从高点算市值已经蒸发了接近1/3

210
00:09:30,779 --> 00:09:34,919
而且周K连200周均线这种关键技术位都跌破了

211
00:09:34,919 --> 00:09:37,500
这个是长线资金的心理防线

212
00:09:37,500 --> 00:09:38,960
连这种位置都守不住

213
00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,240
那市场对它的定价逻辑就会从回调慢慢变成

214
00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:43,740
是不是趋势变了

215
00:09:43,740 --> 00:09:51,580
其实都是因为呃这些巨头从曾经的现金奶牛这个基本面非常稳健

216
00:09:51,580 --> 00:09:54,559
现金流非常的这个雄厚的公司

217
00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,659
变成了现在是烧钱公司了

218
00:09:56,659 --> 00:09:59,419
所以这投资者对他的那个定价肯定是改变

219
00:09:59,419 --> 00:10:01,299
之前市场好的时候还好说哈

220
00:10:01,299 --> 00:10:04,000
现在诶这个市场动荡不安

221
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,279
那么大家就开始重新审视这些公司了哈

222
00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:08,279
再回头来看

223
00:10:08,279 --> 00:10:10,519
原先最不受市场待见的苹果

224
00:10:10,519 --> 00:10:12,299
反而成了最稳的那个

225
00:10:12,299 --> 00:10:14,269
甚至还能够逆势收涨

226
00:10:14,269 --> 00:10:15,509
之前市场好的时候

227
00:10:15,509 --> 00:10:18,990
大家天天在外面追爱吹蒜利草故事

228
00:10:18,990 --> 00:10:21,250
苹果呢被嫌弃为没梦想

229
00:10:21,250 --> 00:10:22,029
没弹性

230
00:10:22,029 --> 00:10:23,690
没想象力的老古董

231
00:10:23,690 --> 00:10:26,029
现在外面狂风暴雨啊

232
00:10:26,029 --> 00:10:27,210
才知道遇到事儿了

233
00:10:27,210 --> 00:10:29,480
还是苹果经得住考验

234
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,539
牛市里大家都爱讲梦想

235
00:10:31,539 --> 00:10:34,639
熊市里市场指现金流和确定性

236
00:10:34,639 --> 00:10:36,539
虽然现在还不是熊市了

237
00:10:36,539 --> 00:10:39,578
但市场情绪已经明显切换了哈

238
00:10:39,578 --> 00:10:41,418
大家都想先苟着

239
00:10:41,418 --> 00:10:43,720
还是苹果这里最安全行

240
00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,679
今天我们就说到这里

241
00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,779
最近每次收市后海都有新的消息出来

242
00:10:48,779 --> 00:10:52,669
所以经常诶录到一半又要开始重新录

243
00:10:52,669 --> 00:10:54,970
你说这个市场就有多混乱吧

244
00:10:54,970 --> 00:10:58,080
我们股票博主都被搞得这和市场一样

245
00:10:58,080 --> 00:10:59,240
都快神经质了

246
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,840
所以这个时候仓位管理就很重要了哈

247
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,578
如果手里面仓位管理的好的话

248
00:11:04,578 --> 00:11:07,259
你才能够保持一个平稳的心态

249
00:11:07,259 --> 00:11:09,499
而不是在市场里面随波逐流

250
00:11:09,499 --> 00:11:11,379
那我们就明天见拜拜

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